Women Love Bears

If you were alone in the woods, would you rather encounter a bear or a man? Answers to that hypothetical question have sparked a debate about why the vast majority say they would feel more comfortable choosing a bear. The topic has been hotly discussed for weeks as men and women chimed in with their thoughts all over social media. Screenshot HQ, a TikTok account, started the conversation, asking a group of women whether they would rather run into a man they didn’t know or a bear in the forest. Out of the seven women interviewed for the piece, only one picked a man.

I don’t know why everyone is so surprised. It’s no secret that women love bears. Especially big ones.

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How Genghis Khan’s MITTENS Strangled Darwin

One of the reasons I occasionally find it profitable to engage with anklebiters is that they help me get a handle on what I need to do to bridge the communication gap with normal individuals. No offense, but I often can’t tell the difference between the average midwit and the average retard, or determine precisely where along the logic rollercoaster someone is going to fall off without being provided the assistance of some sort of safety rails keeping them on the track.

So, it was with a bit of chagrin that I realized how, despite my best efforts to make every element of my case for the Mathematical Impossibility of The Theory of Evolution by Natural Selection (MITTENS) easily intelligible, I had made precisely the same mistake that the symposium physicists did in 1966. Which is to say, I was requiring my critics to possess an ability to make a correct logical leap that is observably beyond the ability of most people, and had thereby rendered what should have been an incontrovertible argument theoretically contestable in the eyes of the average individual. MPAI strikes again.

Fortunately, a Darwinian true believer who lacked the necessary ability chose to inform me on Gab that the math in MITTENS was both “bad” and “wrong” without bothering to correct it. I responded to him by pointing out that since he had somehow managed to reverse the relationship between generations and fixations and was therefore asserting that it was reasonable to imagine a blistering and hitherto-unseen super-parallel rate of 1,600 fixations per generation, it was unlikely that he had truly been able to detect a mathematical error in what, after all, is some very basic math.

It will probably not surprise you to know that this obvious error neither stopped him nor slowed him down in the slightest:

If I said 1600 per generation, that was a typo. I am flawed, I do make the occasional mistake. That’s the rate for bacteria. Using it for chimps requires more than simply asserting it is so. I will concede that the math itself is correct. Vox is capable of multiplication. The analysis is flawed because the input is incorrect.

It is like taking the top speed of a snail (Best I could find is 0.2 miles per hour for the giant African land snail) and using that to claim we never went to the moon. 226000 miles / 0.2 miles per hour = 1,130,000 hours = 129 years. It has been less than 129 years since the Apollo program, so we can’t have made it there yet.

If you use the wrong starting values, the math leads you astray.

I responded by observing that now he had reversed the appropriate analogy as well. My argument for the mathematical impossibility of the theory of evolution by natural selection is much more akin to pointing out that since the maximum speed of a Moon rocket is the 24,791 mph recorded by Apollo 10, and since it took three days, three hours and 49 minutes for Apollo 11 to reach the Moon, any claim that a Giant African Land Snail travelling at 0.2 mph had flown to the Moon under its own power in less than 24 hours must be false.

This second correction somehow did not dissuade him from continuing to claim that while my math was admittedly correct, the mathematical argument it supported was still “weak”.

The rate of mutation is typically cited per individual per generation. The rate of fixation is of course a population-wide measure. The experiment in the 2009 Nature paper measured a fixation rate of 1 fixation per 1600 generations. The bacteria in the experiment have a rate of mutation of about 1/1000 per generation per individual.

The rate of fixation of neutral mutations is proportional to the rate of mutation (and with certain simplifying assumptions, is equal to the rate of mutation per individual per generation).

The rate of mutation per generation per individual in chimps and humans is on the rough order of 30, over four orders of magnitude higher than that of the bacteria. The rate of fixation will thus be proportionately higher. Using the correct rate of fixation produces numbers comparable to the ones evolutionary geneticists use in molecular clock calculations.

This is why Vox’s “mathematical” argument is weak – it’s using an invalid prior to come to an incorrect conclusion.

I therefore observed that in his attempted defense of neo-Darwinism, he was asserting that mutations fix four orders of magnitude faster ACROSS THE ENTIRE GLOBALLY-DISTRIBUTED SPECIES in both humans and chimpanzees alike than across a small population of laboratory bacteria, which is total nonsense because the fixation rate in laboratory bacteria in the 2009 study published in NATURE is the fastest ever observed by scientists.

I also pointed out his extrapolation that more mutations occurring in a growing, geographically-distributed, and more genetically complex species necessarily means that species will fixate much more quickly than the simpler species was a logical error. To be more precise, his baseless assertion was absolute and utter nonsense; since chimpanzees and humans are far more widely distributed than bacteria living in a single petri dish, any advantageous mutations making an appearance will tend to fixate much more slowly in their populations than in the bacteria.

In fact, the theory of natural selection even suggests that what is an advantageous mutation in one geographical area might well be a disadvantage elsewhere, thereby preventing its fixation. He was literally appealing to his own imagination rather than math, science, or any observable evidence, and he proved quite willing to continue standing upon that imaginary foundation.

Your math is still wrong. Fixation proceeds in parallel. The rate of fixation is equal to the rate of mutation, and the latter can be measured. (Former’s a touch harder, but some bacterial experiments have done it, and confirm the rate.) The rate of mutation needed for the genetic clock is within a factor of two of what’s observed now.

He was, of course, incorrect, as he was citing Wikipedia or some other Internet source without understanding it. As it happens, according to the scientific papers, the rate of fixation is absolutely not equal to the rate of mutation for a) any non-static population, or, b) any beneficial mutation, which happens to be the only kind of mutation that is relevant to the topic of fixation. Also, my critic apparently did not know that the original average of 1,600 generations per fixation reported in the NATURE study specifically included several mutations fixed in parallel.

However, his stubborn insistence that my argument was insufficiently conclusive made me realize that I had unwittingly gifted him the out to which he was clinging by erroneously expecting him to be able to accept what I considered to be obvious: I was assuming that the fastest mutational fixations ever observed in laboratory bacteria were faster, in generational terms, than any fixation occurring in a more genetically complicated species dwelling in the wild. Just as relying upon probability rendered the physicists’ math-based arguments too difficult for the innumerate biologists of the 1966 symposium to understand and accept, my failure to provide a specific example of natural fixation rates among species with higher mutation rates gave my logic-challenged critic sufficient cover to retreat to an ontological argumentum ad imaginariam.

And while I am aware of no substantive studies on mutational fixation rates in humans, which is understandable given the challenge presented by the time frames involved, there does happen to be the famous case of Genghis Khan, who is popularly supposed to have been the male ancestor for nearly one-quarter of the human race. Upon review, this turned out to be a fairly serious exaggeration of his actual genetic influence, but it proved useful nonetheless. And, better yet, his genetic legacy had already been analyzed in terms of mutational fixation!

The Genetic Legacy of the Mongols: a groundbreaking 2003 historical genetics study.

When sampling DNA from 16 populations across Asia, researchers were surprised to find that nearly one in 12 men on the continent shared an unusual Y-chromosomal lineage – one that they said likely came from Genghis Khan. The genetic line showed that about 8 percent of men in the region of the former Mongol empire, and therefore about one in 200 worldwide, share one single male ancestor.

This rise in frequency, if spread evenly over ∼34 generations, would require an average increase by a factor of ∼1.36 per generation and is thus comparable to the most extreme selective events observed in natural populations, such as the spread of melanic moths in 19th-century England in response to industrial pollution (Edleston 1865).

Note two things before we get to the math. First, based on the 2003 date of publication, the researchers were using a period of 23.44 years per generation, distinct from the 20 years per generation I’ve been using. They also appear to have used a slightly starting date for unknown reasons. But these differences are irrelevant and I only mention them to explain the different base number of generations: 40.85 vs ~34. Second, pay very close attention to this phrase: “is thus comparable to the most extreme selective events observed in natural populations”.

Genghis Khan’s third son, and successor, was born in 1186. It took 817 years, or 40.85 generations of 20 years, for his father’s genes to propagate sufficiently to reach 0.5 percent (the 1 in 200 worldwide figure reported in the study expressed in percentage terms) of a species-wide fixation. At this rate, which is “comparable to the most extreme selective events observed in natural populations”, it would take 8,170 generations (40.85 generations x 200) and 163,400 years to fixate a hypothetical “Genghis Khan gene” across the human population, although just to be clear, there is no evidence that there is any genuine mutational advantage to being descended from the individual who was the greatest warlord in human history as well as one of its more conspicuous collectors of fertile young concubines. This application of sexual selection, however one-sided, rather than natural selection per se, means that 8,170 generations per fixation is almost certainly a very conservative estimate.

This means that the fastest observed rate of practical partial fixation in the natural human population has run at 19.58 percent of the fastest-ever rate of observed fixation in laboratory bacteria. As the logic used to construct MITTENS correctly suggested, the bacteria in the lab have been observed to fixate mutations at a rate at least five times faster than the human population has ever been observed to do.

Since evolution by natural selection has now been reduced to purely ontological arguments, what sort of fitness advantage can you possibly imagine that would be more powerful than the sexual-selection advantage the literally rapacious Khan of Khans himself was historically known to utilize?

I’ll lay out the math in analogical terms that everyone can easily grasp in a future post, but for now, the genetic legacy of Genghis Khan should suffice to address any remaining structural objections to the legitimacy of MITTENS and its conclusive falsification of the Neo-Darwinian synthesis.

UPDATE: You might think I’m exaggerating the stupidity and the innumeracy of the biologists. I’m not. They legitimately do not comprehend the existence of the concept of an “average”, much less have the ability to grasp MITTENS. This is an actual quote from one self-appointed defender of Darwin:

“This so-called math isn’t necessary to evolution since there is no one set speed of evolution or even of mutation.“

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An Unconscionable Hope

A lieutenant colonel from the 2nd Armored Cav tells the Council on Foreign Relations that it is time for Ukraine – and its Clown World masters – to surrender to Russia, because there is no path to military victory and absolutely no chance that they will ever succeed in their war against Russia.

I have 20-something years of military experience, four combat deployments. I fought in a large tank battle in Desert Storm with the 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment. We also served time on the east-west border in Germany, where we had to patrol against the potential onslaught of the Soviet Union coming in. So I had to actually study the Soviet doctrine, their tanks, the way they fight, the way they do offense, the way they do defense, in terrain very similar to what’s going on in Ukraine right now. I was also the second-in-command of an armored cav squadron for the U.S. 1st Armored Division in the mid-2000s.

Believe me when I tell you there is no chance that Ukraine will ever succeed in its war against Russia. There is no path to military victory for Ukraine, period. It doesn’t matter if we give $60 billion. It doesn’t matter if we give another $120 billion, $200 billion. It’s not going to make any difference, because the fundamentals that go in to build combat power at the national level are decisively and irrevocably on the Russian side. You cannot buy your way into this situation where you can turn the tables because you can’t undo the fundamentals.

The air power on the Russian side is overwhelmingly and irrevocably on the Russian side. Air defense, thei military industrial capacity to be able to crank out large numbers of artillery ammunition, the weapons themselves, the drones, electronic warfare, and most importantly of all, the people. Russia has more people and they will always have more people, and it’s throughout the West. They will never be able to match what happens on the other side.

In my view, it is unconscionable to continue hoping against hope that the Ukraine side can win if we just give a little bit more cash, because it won’t work out that way.

I’ve been saying the same thing since before the Special Military Operation launched in February 2022. So has anyone with a sufficient grasp of both economics and military history. The only reason Ukraine has lasted as long as it has is because a) Russia elected to switch to an attritional strategy after its initial attempt at a rapid decapitation strike failed in order to preserve its military manpower and b) NATO constructed two additional armies to replace the original Ukrainian army after it was destroyed.

The army that is now more than twice-decimated and in desperate need of a nationwide mobilization to prevent it from collapsing is the THIRD Ukrainian army of the war. Few yet understand that the extent of the losses to Ukraine is already more severe than the generational losses England suffered in the first and second world wars.

Unfortunately, as we have been told by more than a few conspiracy analysts, Ukraine is the Deep State, and Clown World does not care how many innocent people it has to sacrifice to try to save itself. Unless and until Putin and Xi start striking at the parties responsible for unnecessarily prolonging the war, or the UFA flat-out refuses to fight anymore, I don’t see how it will be possible for the Ukrainian people to save themselves by surrendering.

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The Vacuous Rhetoric of Evolution

This is a quote from the 1966 Philadelphia symposium, but it is precisely the same sort of argument that any substantive critic of Neo-Darwinism keeps running into from the Neo-Darwinians:

Combinations of different genes occur such that every individual is a unique com­bination, and the selective assay of the value of each random mutation is performed simultaneously in this framework for thou­sands of mutations at a time. The accep­tance of the neo-Darwinian concept of evo­lution appears to be eminently valid on this basis. However, a critical feature is the occurrence of mechanisms for genetic com­bination and recombination, and a major criticism of the neo-Darwinian concept which has been raised at this meeting is premised on the lack of such a mechanism in the initial steps of the evolution of a “sense” sequence of a polypeptide or poly­nucleotide from an initially “nonsense” sequence. It does not, however, seem an ex­treme extrapolation from the known facts of nucleic acid replication and transcription to envisage that combination and recom­bination are inherent features of polynu­cleotides, and the evolution of “sense” sequences then becomes a process of reason­able probability.
– Dr. Alex Fraser, Professor of Genetics, University of California Davis, California

Let’s break the argument down into its component parts:

  1. There is no mechanism. This is readily admitted.
  2. This lack of a mechanism renders the hypothesis impossible.
  3. But it doesn’t strike the Neo-Darwinian true believer to be an extreme extrapolation to imagine what this nonexistent, never-observed mechanism could be if it existed, which it doesn’t.
  4. And if we simply imagine that this nonexistent mechanism existed, then the proposed process that requires it in order to function becomes theoretically possible.
  5. Therefore, the process works as imagined

What sort of philosophical ineptitude and logical retardery is this? Who is stupid enough to accept this as a legitimate argument, let alone an established fact? This isn’t science, reason, logic, or math, it’s just maleducated handwaving combined with wishful thinking. They’re playing poker with Uno cards.

Evolution isn’t science. It isn’t even philosophy or religion. It’s just the vacuous rhetoric of the innumerate, as even its leading champions were forced to admit at the end of the 1966 symposium.

I hope the biologists have shown the physicists that evolutionary theories are not totally vacuous. I think the physicists have shown us that they are certainly as yet very incomplete, and I think we are ready to realize they are very incomplete.
– Dr. C. H. Waddington, Institute of Animal Genetics, Edinburgh

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May the Fourth

Owen Benjamin comments on the nerdiest fake holiday since Kwanzaa was invented.

To celebrate May the 4th we should all appreciate what a Boomer institution Star Wars is:

  • Luke forsook his rural upbringing to take part in a political campaign he had no place in.
  • Leah was a strong independent feminist.
  • Obi-Wan was a childless hippie who devoted his life to eastern mysticism.
  • Han is a wandering deadbeat who lives with his dog and is obsessed with his car.
  • Darth Vader abandoned his family to pursue his career.
  • The robots are in an openly gay relationship.
  • Everyone treats the empire like the great evil while fully enjoying the comforts and protections it provides.

In retrospect, Star Wars may have been a much darker commentary on the realities of Clown World’s politics than most of us realized at the time.

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Hey, New Friend!

The Euro-American surveillance state is why it’s a good idea to keep all your would-be new best buddies out of your life:

I almost walk straight into this guy, short, about my age, standing directly outside my door. he has heavy American accent, he explains he is on the way to nearby tax adviser and comes up with pretence to speak to me, we talk about America, and then suddenly we have all of these common interests: fitness running etc. can he have my phone number, maybe he and his girlfriend can go hiking with me and my girlfriend.

So like idiot, I give him number, don’t think much about it. In retrospect the whole incident reminds of a few press stories I’ve read about how the SEK confirm addresses before raiding houses: casual encounters, often they claim they have the wrong address, etc.

I’m non-committal about the hiking double date idea, and for a week nothing. then he keeps ‘randomly’ running into me, also in weird places. It is small village, I have never seen him before and suddenly he’s everywhere. At the bank where I’m withdrawing money, he’s there, at the local recycling centre where I’m throwing away papers, he’s there. He texts me but I ignore. After the like third encounter where I maintain polite but non-committal attitude he disappears and I never see him or his weird van ever again.

When you run into these surveillance agents, always take their picture. Their reaction will reliably confirm your suspicions. And then post the pictures on Twitter or whatever; manpower is finite and one individual is probably being used to stalk dozens of individuals over the course of a year. The fact that they’re using Americans to spy on Germans in Germany tends to indicate that Clown World has fewer operatives than they would like us to believe.

This is one of the many reasons that I have absolutely zero desire for any new friends. Although I have to admit, it would be amusing to see some rando popping up around town attempting to claim that he shares my interests.

“I, too, enjoy sitting alone in the dark listening to Brahms while calculating maximal fixation rates! Give me your phone number and perhaps we can get together and go hiking!”

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Turkey Cuts Ties with Israel

The Gazacaust continues to have global ramifications:

The Turkish government has suspended all trade with Israel in response to the Gaza war, the Trade Ministry in Ankara said in a statement posted on social media on Thursday.

Türkiye has been one of Israel’s fiercest critics since the conflict with Hamas broke out in October. The suspension of all export and import operations has been introduced in response to the Jewish state’s “aggression against Palestine in violation of international law and human rights,” the statement read.

Ankara will strictly implement the new measures until Israel allows uninterrupted and sufficient flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza, the document added.

This is significant, because Turkey is not only a member of NATO, but it has historically been one of the more friendly nations in the Dar al-Islam to Israel. And while we can’t rule out the USA deciding to sanction Turkey, it’s further evidence that US diplomatic efforts are in a serious state of crisis.

Passing anti-speech laws and anti-boycott laws in US states isn’t going to matter much if the greater part of the planet refuses to economically engage with Israel.

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Anti-Christian and Anti-American

The corrupt creatures in Congress are making your choice very clear and unmistakable. Jesus Christ and the First Amendment or Holocaustianity and Hate Speech Laws.

The United States House of Representatives has passed H.R. 6090, a bill that criminalizes basic Biblical Truth. This alarming legislation seeks to weaponize the Civil Rights Act for the enforcement of federal anti-discrimination laws, thus having a chilling effect on the free speech of Christians across the nation.

The bill adopts the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance’s definition of “antisemitism” which includes the basic Biblical Truth that the Jews killed Jesus Christ as “classic antisemitism.” The bill has raised serious concerns among Christians who believe that their First Amendment rights are being threatened. For example H.R. 6090 could potentially make it a crime for pastors to preach sermons that adhere to Biblical passages, of which there are many, which explicitly state that the Jews killed Jesus.

As a result, churches may become targets for Civil Rights Act discrimination lawsuits, leading to a wave of anti-Christian sentiment and the stifling of religious expression. This legislation follows just a few weeks after we learned, during Holy Week of all times, that saying “Christ is King” is “antisemitic” from many of the gatekeeping establishment voices on the right. It also follows a slew of similar “hate speech” legislation at the state level that is being passed by Republican governors in red states, including Ron DeSantis who flew to Israel to sign his….

Unfortunately, many pastors have chosen to ignore the implications of bills like H.R. 6090, allowing the bill to pass without raising their voices in opposition. This silence is not only a disservice to their congregations and the Church itself, but also a missed opportunity to defend the Biblical truths that have guided Christians for centuries. Even worse are the pastors who are supporting legislation like this because of their twisted and heretical theology that makes an idol out of the modern antichrist nation state of Israel and the antichrist Jews.

The Devil certainly knows his own. Those who choose to believe the lies will suffer the consequences, even as they stupidly and smugly believe that they are being blessed for “blessing Israel” by participating in the attempted murder of America/Amalek. You would think that when resisting satanry is criminalized and denounced as “anti-semitic”, they would be able to put two and two together to make four.

I say “attempted murder” because I am entirely certain that they will fail. They always do. And they always will.

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