An Unconscionable Hope

A lieutenant colonel from the 2nd Armored Cav tells the Council on Foreign Relations that it is time for Ukraine – and its Clown World masters – to surrender to Russia, because there is no path to military victory and absolutely no chance that they will ever succeed in their war against Russia.

I have 20-something years of military experience, four combat deployments. I fought in a large tank battle in Desert Storm with the 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment. We also served time on the east-west border in Germany, where we had to patrol against the potential onslaught of the Soviet Union coming in. So I had to actually study the Soviet doctrine, their tanks, the way they fight, the way they do offense, the way they do defense, in terrain very similar to what’s going on in Ukraine right now. I was also the second-in-command of an armored cav squadron for the U.S. 1st Armored Division in the mid-2000s.

Believe me when I tell you there is no chance that Ukraine will ever succeed in its war against Russia. There is no path to military victory for Ukraine, period. It doesn’t matter if we give $60 billion. It doesn’t matter if we give another $120 billion, $200 billion. It’s not going to make any difference, because the fundamentals that go in to build combat power at the national level are decisively and irrevocably on the Russian side. You cannot buy your way into this situation where you can turn the tables because you can’t undo the fundamentals.

The air power on the Russian side is overwhelmingly and irrevocably on the Russian side. Air defense, thei military industrial capacity to be able to crank out large numbers of artillery ammunition, the weapons themselves, the drones, electronic warfare, and most importantly of all, the people. Russia has more people and they will always have more people, and it’s throughout the West. They will never be able to match what happens on the other side.

In my view, it is unconscionable to continue hoping against hope that the Ukraine side can win if we just give a little bit more cash, because it won’t work out that way.

I’ve been saying the same thing since before the Special Military Operation launched in February 2022. So has anyone with a sufficient grasp of both economics and military history. The only reason Ukraine has lasted as long as it has is because a) Russia elected to switch to an attritional strategy after its initial attempt at a rapid decapitation strike failed in order to preserve its military manpower and b) NATO constructed two additional armies to replace the original Ukrainian army after it was destroyed.

The army that is now more than twice-decimated and in desperate need of a nationwide mobilization to prevent it from collapsing is the THIRD Ukrainian army of the war. Few yet understand that the extent of the losses to Ukraine is already more severe than the generational losses England suffered in the first and second world wars.

Unfortunately, as we have been told by more than a few conspiracy analysts, Ukraine is the Deep State, and Clown World does not care how many innocent people it has to sacrifice to try to save itself. Unless and until Putin and Xi start striking at the parties responsible for unnecessarily prolonging the war, or the UFA flat-out refuses to fight anymore, I don’t see how it will be possible for the Ukrainian people to save themselves by surrendering.