Tag: Russia

Kiev Meets Mr. Hazel

Andrei Martynov is pretty confident that it’s going to be necessary for the Russians to drop an Oreshnik or three on the European power centers, as they did with Kiev last night, to convince them to stop playing poke the Bear.

NATO criminals are doing everything they can to censor any info coming out of destroyed sites, especially around Belaya Tserkov airfield complex which contained many things ranging from bunkers to aviation repair and “mad maxing” facilities for all kinds of flying means for strikes against Russia.

Again, terrorism against Russian civilians will continue–UAVs and hence striking schools, dormitories, kindergartens et al are the only real means of “influencing” anything by allegedly creating dissatisfaction within Russian society with Kremlin and discrediting Russian leadership–this is the way primitive inbred and pervert cretins in London, Berlin and Paris think. Militarily NATO is impotent and terrorism is the only weapon they have. This IS the spread, so to speak. At this stage, Europeans must be made to have chronic diarrhea from fear of Russia. Non-stop, they need to live in paralyzing fear because Europe is a Satanists’ playground.

Next time it could be Berlin or Paris and they can do nothing about it.

It’s understandable that the Russians feel no need to save the Europeans from Clown World. After all, they had to save themselves, and if the nations of Europe are sovereign and healthy, they are a proven potential threat to Europe. But Clown World is the greater evil, and the Russians know perfectly well who is behind Ukraine and using it as a proxy to make war on them.

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Running Out of Steam

Peter Turchin calculates that the Ukraine war will be over later this year:

The Persian Gulf war of USA/Israel against Iran has largely displaced reporting on the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Reading the news on mainstream media one may think that this war, now in its fifth year, is still in stalemate; or even that the tide is turning against Russia (Washington Post: Putin remark on war ‘coming to a close’ points to exhaustion, not peace, analysts say; NYT: I’m the Foreign Minister of Sweden. Don’t Overestimate Russia).
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But quantitative models of attritional warfare say otherwise: Russia continues to dominate the battlefield and the eventual outcome, barring a Black Swan event, is inevitable defeat of Ukraine. My readers may know that three years ago I developed a an Attritional Warfare Model, AWM (based on the Lanchester equations) for forecasting this war’s outcome.

More recently a similar conclusion was reached by Warwick Powell (see Estimating Trajectories in Attritional Warfare: The Russia-Ukrainian Conflict Through a Quantitative Lens). Powell used a similar model, with the most important difference being the choice of the end point. My model assumes that the war ends when the level of casualties, as a percentage of population, exceeds a certain threshold, which I estimated via a sample of past attritional wars from the Correlates of War data.

Powell, alternatively, assumes that the beginning of the end for Ukraine will happen when its army size declines below a certain threshold (0.65-0.73 of the initial size of 550,000). From that point, Ukrainian losses will accelerate and the full collapse will happen once the army size is below 50% of the prior peak. Powell’s model predicts that the tipping point will happen in July-September (updated on May 14).

Naturally, this is only a model-based forecast, not a prophesy. There is a lot of uncertainty about the estimates of various parameters. Furthermore, the threshold at which collapse occurs is only imprecisely estimated. For example, it’s not clear whether the threshold of 0.65-0.73 above which the Ukrainian force can maintain its operational integrity still applies on a battlefield heavily dominated by drones. For example, a smaller force size may be sufficient to continue defending positions given an abundant supply of drones.

My model also doesn’t incorporate any possible effects of the shift to the drone warfare — simply because it hadn’t happen when I published its predictions. Determining how this technological shift affects the AWM’s predictions will have to wait until the post-mortem after the war is over and when estimates would become much more precise. However, I tried a few preliminary explorations and they suggest that the drone effect on the war trajectory is not quite as huge as might be imagined. What’s important is the casualty rate inflicted on the Ukrainian army by the Russians, and it doesn’t matter whether it’s a result of artillery, air bombing, or drones.

Is Ukraine reaching its recruitment limit? This is the key factor in both our models. There are some indications that this is the case. A week ago, Branko Marcetic (using Ukrainian sources) provided some relevant numbers in a Responsible Statecraft article, Ukraine’s conscription crisis is getting increasingly bloody; While outside voices insist the war can still be won on the battlefield, young men in the country are violently resisting recruiters to stay out of it. Here are some numbers supporting this conclusion.

The number of complaints over possible violations committed by enlistment officers, received by Ukraine’s Human Rights Ombudsman, Dmytro Lubinets:

2022 — 18
2023 — 514
2024 — 3312
2025 — 6127

The number of violent attacks against enlistment officers shows the same trend: from 5 in 2022 to 117 in just the first four months of this year.

One can hardly blame the young Ukrainians for attacking the “enlistment officers” who are really straight-up kidnappers. At the end of the day, the odds of surviving a violent encounter with these rear-echelon thugs is a lot higher than surviving one with frontline Russian troops.

Young European men have probably already figured that out, which is why I expect any attempt by any European country to enact a draft besides Russophobic Poland and Finland to meet with literally violent resistance. Why would any European man fight to defend against civilized Russia instead of rapey third-world invaders?

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All Indicators

Andrei Martyanov, whose track record has been very good for more than a decade, believes Russia is going to strike Europe, specifically Germany, soon in retaliation for manufacturing the drones used by Ukraine to attack Russian territory.

Now, per strikes–all indicators are that Russia will strike Europe. Russia doesn’t need to use nukes because she has more than enough conventional means for both destruction of a critical industrial infrastructure involved in support of 404 and, if it comes down to it, decapitating governments of hostile countries.

Russia has enough conventional means to strike at any facility in Europe and the US IS NOT coming for a simple reason–it has no resources. Demilitarizing NATO was one of the key strategic aims of the Special Military Operation once it became clear that the US sabotaged Istanbul talks and Iran has demonstrated it fully. Who will be hit first? Yeah, I am inclined to see Germany “getting the message”–it is long overdue.

And Russia will be perfectly justified in attacking any of the belligerent parties. It would be very difficult for the leaders of the EU, the UK, Germany, and even Switzerland to have more incompetently mishandled their various relations with Russia in futile attempts to appease Clown World and keep the US military in Europe. All they had to do was stay neutral and keep out of what was never any of their business in the first place.

Their collective lunacy is only exceeded by that of Finland and Sweden, who were perfectly safe as neutral parties, but have now unnecessarily painted targets on their national chests by joining NATO and declaring themselves enemy of the Russian Federation.

And now, ironically, they all find themselves falling afoul of both the USA and China as well. The last four years have been marked by some of the most incompetent national diplomacy in the history of international relations.

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UK Jets Attack Russian Targets

This reported attack by UK jets on Russian drones over Ukraine appears to be such a spectacularly stupid thing to do that the UK Ministry of Defence is denying that it took place:

The Ministry of Defence has denied the Romanian military’s claim that RAF jets on a NATO patrol shot down Russian drones over Ukrainian territory for the first time.

Two Royal Air Force Eurofighters were scrambled from Borcea Air Base in the early hours of Saturday 25 April, as Putin’s forces attacked ports on the River Danube in Ukraine.

It is understood both aircraft returned to base and did not engage any Russian assets, nor did they enter Ukrainian airspace.

It comes after the Romanian Ministry of National Defence claimed crew engaged and downed the Russian drones.

The strike over Ukraine aimed at protecting NATO state Romania represents a new development in the four-year war, it claimed.

‘On the morning of Saturday, April 25, Russian forces resumed drone attacks on civilian and infrastructure targets in Ukraine, near the river border with Romania, in Tulcea County,‘ said the Bucharest statement.

‘MApN radars detected drones flying near Romanian airspace. Two Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft of the British Air Force from the Reinforced Air Police combat service took off at 02:00 from the 86th Air Base in Fetești. The National Military Command Centre notified IGSU [General Inspectorate for Emergency Situations] regarding the establishment of measures to alert the population in the localities of Grindu and Isaccea, in Tulcea County, and at 02:14, a RO-ALERT message was transmitted. The Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft had radar contact with a target located 1.5 km [1 mile] from Reni, above Ukrainian territory. The pilots had authorisation to engage the drones.’

If the Russians ever decide to start bombing the UK, the morons in the Labor and Conservative parties will only have themselves to blame. They helped start the war, and they’re unnecessarily involving British military forces in it. A Russo-British conflict in 2026 would make the charge of the Light Brigade look brilliant.

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Russian Objectives are Expanding

When Russia launched its special military operation in 2022, the initial objective was the liberation of the Donbass from Clown World. Now that the initial objective has been largely achieved, but neither the Kiev regime nor the NATO clowns are willing to accept the situation and surrender, there is no reason for the Russians to refrain from expanding their objectives:

In his February 9, 2026, interview with TV BRICS (and echoed in related remarks), Lavrov reiterated Russia’s demands for a settlement: eradicating “Nazi foundations,” preventing weapons in Ukraine that threaten Russia, and protecting rights of Russian/Russian-speaking people in Crimea, Donbas, and Novorossiya (who the Kyiv regime has labeled as “subhuman” and launched a civil war against them early in 2014).

In a February 10, 2026, speech/ceremony marking Diplomatic Workers’ Day (reported by TASS and mid.ru), Lavrov stated that Russia will “complete the process of returning” Crimea, Donbas, and Novorossiya to their “native harbor” (i.e., full integration with Russia), in line with the “will” expressed in the 2022 referendums. He added that linguistic, cultural, and religious rights of Russians/Russian-speakers in areas remaining under Kyiv’s control must be restored, alongside eliminating military threats from Ukraine to Russia’s security.

Similar phrasing appeared in his February 11, 2026, remarks during the Government Hour in the State Duma, where he criticized Western “double standards” (e.g., supporting self-determination for Greenland while denying it for Crimea, Donbas, and Novorossiya) and vowed to defend Russia’s position diplomatically.

Novorossiya (Russian: Новороссия, meaning “New Russia”) is a historical term that originated in the 18th century during the era of the Russian Empire. It referred to a large administrative and colonial region in what is now southern and southeastern mainland Ukraine, along the northern coast of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.

The term entered official use in 1764, when Empress Catherine the Great established the Novorossiya Governorate (Novorossiyskaya guberniya). This was part of Russia’s southward expansion during the late 18th century, driven by a series of Russo-Turkish Wars (notably 1768–1774 and 1787–1792).

I believe that when Putin and Lavrov speak of Novorossiya today they are signaling maximalist goals… Not just holding annexed territories (Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia) but laying a claim to adjacent regions, which include Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa, Mykolaiv where Russian speakers live or there are historical ties.

I tend to agree. While I always felt that Russia would insist on reclaiming Odessa for strategic reasons, the fact that it’s now clear that they will have to impose terms on Kiev and Clown World rather than reach an accommodation, it makes more sense to simply acquire the four additional regions that would complete the liberation of Novorossiya in its entirety.

Which probably explains the way in which Russian military activity will be increasing as the US ties itself up in Israel’s Middle East conflict with Iran and potentially a number of other countries, including Turkey.

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Pure Satanism

The Russians are now openly and publicly calling out the wicked elite that presently rule over Christendom:

The Epstein case has revealed the real face of the Western elites who are seeking to rule the entire world, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said.

“This topic has exposed the real face of what is called the collective West and the deep state, or rather, an alliance that controls the entire West and is seeking to rule the whole world,” he said in an interview with Itogi Nedely weekly news roundup on the NTV television channel.

“It is unnecessary to explain to any normal person that this is pure Satanism and is beyond human comprehension,” he added.

Epstein is just the tip of the iceberg. It’s a glimpse of the material evil that itself is just a small portion of the much-larger spiritual war.

And remember, the Russians have all the records of the WWII-era death camps. They have all the evidence that they’ve gathered in the parts of Ukraine that have been freed from Clown World rule. Given the way in which their rhetoric is getting stronger in line with the prospects of military victory, they obviously know a lot more than they are now saying publicly or showing the world.

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Russia Graciously Accedes

President Putin gives his blessing to the US acquisition of Greenland:

  • President Putin just dismantled the EU’s grip on Greenland with a “5D Chess” play that gives TRUMP a total free hand.
  • None of our Business” – Putin officially declares Russia won’t interfere, effectively clearing the path for a US-Greenland deal.
  • Putin cites the 1917 land sales between Denmark and the USA as a precedent. If they did it then, why not now?
  • Putin exposes Denmark’s “harsh” and “cruel” treatment of Greenland as a colony, framing the US move as a necessary rescue mission.
  • Putin runs the math: Comparing it to the Alaska purchase ($7.2M in 1867), he calculates Greenland’s value at roughly $200M–$1B in inflation-adjusted gold terms.

If it gets the US out of NATO and the troops out of Europe, then I’m all for it. And it really seems right that President Trump would return the favor with regards to Odessa.

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The Retreat From Kiev

Apparently the Kiev regime is on the verge of abandoning Kiev:

The most shocking figure came from mayor Klitschko, who said that just in January alone, 600,000 residents have fled Kiev, with more being urged to flee. Temperatures have fallen as low as ­minus 18C during a cold snap projected to last at least two more weeks.

Other publications quoted Klitschko specifically stating the 600k came in just January from people who heeded his call made on January 9th to evacuate the capital:

Anyone else consider it utterly catastrophic for one of Europe’s largest capitals to lose upwards of 20-25% of its population in literally two weeks? Wiki shows Kiev as having had 2.9M people before the war—we can assume it had even less than that recently. That would make 600k arguably as high as 25% of its total amount—a simply unprecedented number.

Kiev is literally being emptied out, and that this isn’t the biggest story in the world is a bit of a shock. Remember: this 600k is only in the past two weeks, and Russian strikes are getting worse as winter bites. There are now rumors Russia plans to launch two Oreshnik missiles this week, with some Ukrainian sources claiming this time they’ll be aimed at Kiev.

Will we soon see Kiev entirely abandoned?

As I said more than two years ago, if the Kiev regime, which is about as genuinely Ukrainian as Sanae Takaichi, had any concern for the Ukrainian people at all, it would have surrendered. Now it appears they’re going to abandon the capital city while still refusing to permit the Ukrainian Armed Forces from laying down their arms.

In the meantime, the satanic puppets of the EU are posturing about how they’re going to fight both Russia over Ukraine and the USA over Greenland with their as-yet-nonexistent army of vaxxed young men who hate the EU, which strikes me as highly improbable.

The future has turned out to be a lot weirder than I ever imagined.

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Greenland for Ukraine

I don’t know why the obvious trade isn’t being discussed by the media, when that’s obviously what’s on the table between the USA and Russia:

Donald Trump has warned the US may pull out of NATO if America’s allies don’t agree to its acquisition of Greenland.

‘Will you pull out of NATO if it doesn’t help you acquire Greenland,’ a reporter asked the president outside the White House on Friday.

Trump warned: ‘We’re going to see. NATO has been dealing with us on Greenland, we need Greenland for national security very badly. If we don’t have it we have a very big hole in terms of national security, especially in terms of the Golden Dome.’

The Golden Dome is a proposed multi-layer missile defense system which the president says is reliant on seizing control of Denmark’s Arctic territory.

Trump earlier threatened to impose tariffs ‘on countries that don’t go along with Greenland’ as he escalated his pressure campaign.

Britain, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway and Sweden announced yesterday the deployment of small numbers of troops to Greenland in response to Trump’s bellicose rhetoric.

So now, of course, the Europeans are trying to pivot toward Moscow, as they belatedly realize that while Russia is an indirect threat to them, the USA is a direct and material one.

Western European leaders who have spent the last four years flooding Ukraine with every tank, shell, and missile they could get their hands on came out this week in favor of diplomacy and peaceful coexistence with Russia. Was this week a turning point, or just a brief moment of sobriety on the continent?

It’s a turning point because they finally realized that they’re actually going to lose territory to the USA, not to Russia. It’s a masterful stroke by the USA, since there is absolutely nothing Denmark or the EU can do about it, except accept the fait accompli when it happens.

They don’t seem to have ever realized that the end of the fake “rules-based world order” means that no one is going to bother pretending to play by the fake rules anymore.

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Oreshnik Take 2

The Russians are increasing the pressure on the Kiev regime:

The Oreshnik was unleashed for the first time since its debut in 2024, and with devastating effect. Preliminary reports state that the Oreshnik hit the Bilche-Volitsko-Uhersky underground gas storage facility, which has a storage capacity of 17.05 billion cubic meters, which is more than 50% of the total capacity of all storage facilities in Ukraine.

Lvov deputy Igor Zinkevich reported that in the Lvov region, the stoves in the kitchen are barely burning, the boilers have gone out and won’t light up – there’s no gas pressure.

The grind continues. The situation is more than a little strange, with the US engaged in asymmetric warfare everywhere from Syria, Iran, and Venezuela to the high seas, while Russia keeps slowly pounding away at the ground game in Ukraine.

Usually the tortoise beats the hare, though.

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