It appears that Iran, like Russia, just managed to get suckered into “diplomacy” that was never anything more than a means of buying time in order to permit the US military to move its pieces into position for a series of decapitation and incapacitation strikes.
The rapid buildup of U.S. forces in the Middle East has progressed to the point that President Trump has the option to take military action against Iran as soon as this weekend, administration and Pentagon officials said, leaving the White House with high-stakes choices about pursuing diplomacy or war.
Mr. Trump has given no indication that he has made a decision about how to proceed. But the drive to assemble a military force capable of striking Iran’s nuclear program, its ballistic missiles and accompanying launch sites has continued this week despite indirect talks between the two nations on Tuesday, with Iran seeking two weeks to come back with fleshed out proposals for a diplomatic resolution.
Many administration officials have expressed skepticism about the prospects of reaching a diplomatic deal with Tehran. The indirect talks on Tuesday in Geneva ended with what Iran’s foreign minister said was agreement on a “set of guiding principles.” U.S. officials said the two sides made progress but added that big gaps remain.
It’s really rather remarkable that Clown World’s targets keep falling for this sort of thing, and they’ve been doing so since Desert Shield. The only chance Saddam Hussein had was launching his own ground offensive before all of his assets were systematically depreciated by 100,000 sorties flown over 36 days; by the time Desert Storm began his armies weren’t even in any shape to resist.
Russia, of course, has been able to overcome the challenges posed by its engagement with the deceitful Minsk agreements, but it has paid a higher price for its reluctance to accept the inevitable. Even now, it’s still trying to negotiate and bargain while resisting the need to admit that the only way it can end the war is to win it on the ground.
Iran stopped the 12-Day War eight months ago, and as a result, now finds itself facing a much more formidable US expeditionary force, and would probably have been much better off launching its attacks on the US bases in the region rather than waiting for its air defense systems to be attacked and its launch sites destroyed, then trying to hit back with its degraded capabilities.
Of course, we can’t necessarily assume that the Iranians are making the same mistake again. And there are some signs that Iran has been using the additional time to bring in support from Russia and China, to say nothing of arranging for the arrival of the Russian and Chinese ships for their “joint naval exercise”. But the US assumption is that Russia and China are going to stay out of this, and that whatever help they’ve been able to provide will be less significant than the arrangement of the US pieces.
So, I suppose as with most wars, we’ll just have to wait and see who underestimated whom. But the recent history has not tended to favor the side that is reluctant to respond to overt aggression, whether that is out of cowardice, ill-founded optimism, an unwillingness to abandon the status quo, or simple naivete.

