Defeated at Sea

For the second time in one year, the once-indomitable US Navy has been forced to run away from land-based missiles in the Middle East, thereby demonstrating an end to 80 years of carrier diplomacy. This, along with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz enforced by Iran, spells the end of four centuries of Anglo-US ownership of the high seas.

Now the high-noon Hormuz standoff has escalated. The biggest story has been Iran’s vindication over its claims that US naval forces had retreated under the growing threat of strikes. Recall last time we spoke about the ~300km range of Iran’s anti-ship assets, but that Iranian Brigadier General Fadavi stated no US ship was operating within 700km of Iran’s shores.

It seems he was telling the truth, because latest Chinese satellite intel indicates that the USS Lincoln has now retreated to roughly 1,000km from Iranian shores. The Lincoln carrier group is said to be quivering in the lee of Port Salalah in Oman, in the north Arabian Sea:

The supporting evidence comes by way of flight tracking which appears to indicate that air refuelers operating out of KSA are bridging the gap for this extremely long combat radius. Additionally, a carrier based Osprey craft was spotted right where the Lincoln is said to be idling: This aircraft is assigned to the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln … so this must be its current location.

Operating at such a range likely puts tremendous strain on US airframes, pilots themselves, and other assets, multiplying associated costs.

More interesting is the fact that Iranian officials had claimed the reason for the USS Lincoln’s withdrawal was that it was successfully hit by drones.

It is increasingly evident that whether it actually loses a carrier or not, the Iranian Expedition will be seen as the equivalent of the disastrous Sicilian Expedition that marked the end of the Athenian empire. The war isn’t over yet, and it’s still possible that the Epstein Alliance might pull a victorious black cat out of the bag through one or more of its nefarious tactics, but an ignominious naval defeat and the eventual collapse of the Clown World-ruled US empire without significant military loss of life would be one of the best possible outcomes for the American people who have been subjugated by it for more than a century.

A defeat will also signify the end of the extension of US force into Asia, which is very good news for the people of Taiwan Island, who can be peacefully reunified with China once the threat of US intervention becomes obviously impossible. It should also indicate the eventual end of the occupation of Japan, although that will likely follow Chinese reuinification as it will likely require material Chinese support for Japanese independence.

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False Flag Warning

The Iranian leadership are making it clear that they have no intention of awaking sleeper cells or staging a terror attack on the American people. And they are clearly aware of who is actually responsible for staging the 9/11 attacks.

I’ve heard that the remaining members of Epstein’s network have devised a conspiracy to create an incident similar to 9/11 and blame Iran for it. Iran fundamentally opposes such terrorist schemes and has no war with the American people.

I doubt anywhere nearly as many people would fall for yet another attack that just happens to justify more US-Israeli aggression after the 9/11 and October 7th events.

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A True Soulsigma Fan

Or maybe he’s talking about Vibe Patrol?

As predictive as Vox’s SSH is, I have to admit, I am happy that he is on track to leave a significantly more profound legacy than that would offer. If you’re not paying attention to Vox Day, you are missing out on one of the most important minds of the last 100 years, hands down.

I expect the usual suspects are going to have a field day with this one… It’s kind of a pity they won’t be around to witness history’s eventual verdict.

On an unrelated note, the German edition of Probability Zero is now available in hardcover from Editions Alpines. This is not an AI translation; special thanks to Urs Hildebrandt who personally translated it from English into that most melodious of languages. Wahrscheinlichkeit Null… it just rolls beautifully off the tongue, doesn’t it!

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The Return of Appendix N

I would be remiss if I did not let everyone know that Jeffro Johnson’s excellent APPENDIX N: THE LITERARY HISTORY OF DUNGEONS & DRAGONS is available again on Amazon, in hardcover, Kindle, Kindle Unlimited, and audiobook.

APPENDIX N: The Literary History of Dungeons & Dragons is a detailed and comprehensive investigation of the various works of science fiction and fantasy that game designer Gary Gygax declared to be the primary influences on his seminal role-playing game, Dungeons & Dragons. It is a deep intellectual dive into the literature of SF/F’s past that will fascinate any serious role-playing gamer or fan of classic science fiction and fantasy.

It even features a lovely introduction by John C. Wright.


Imagine if you had lived in a house for decades, as had your father before you, and grandfather, and you thought you knew all its halls and chambers. Idly, some rainy day, or when the snow has covered all the roads, you take up a lantern and go to see what is stored in those old boxes in the cellar, or where that one small door you never opened before leads.

You pry the door open, and it groans on rusted hinges, and beyond are caves of wonder, heaped with treasure. Here, like a column of fire, stands a strange genii and other spirits bound to serve your family. They are willing to carry you whirling through the air like an autumn leaf, in less time than it takes to gasp in awe, to far and fabled lands beyond the cerulean ocean, to elfish gardens of dangerous glamor, to jeweled mountains, alabaster cities, or perfumed jungles dreaming in the moonlight where ancient fanes to forgotten gods arise. The genii explains that all these things are yours, your inheritance. You have merely to claim them.

Or, to make the image more true to life, let us say that you are exploring the attic, and you find a handcrank connected to an orrery, worked by a silver key you have always worn but never heretofore found to fit any lock. Turning the crank, you move the model of planets on their epicycles back to an earlier position: trumpets blare and lamps blaze, and now parts and opens the dome of what you had, until now, thought was the sky above your house.

You find yourself in the middle of larger heavens than you knew, with gem-bright suns of many colors, constellations rearing, moons and worlds like colored ornaments, and bearded stars in the high depths of space like runners with torches. And there are worlds beyond those worlds.

Here you find your grandfather, in armor of gold with a sword of white fire, still young and strong, and discover him to be a sorcerer prince, or a dark elf, or a warrior angel, whose ichor runs in your veins as well. All this explains that strangeness that has haunted you all your life.

So it is with all readers and fans of science fiction and fantasy, weird tales and amazing stories who have never looked at the older books from which the younger books spring up. These are tales from beyond the shelves you know, realms unexplored yet oddly familiar.

Jeffro Johnson was the man with that silver key to unlock the older heavens or call up the genii you inherited from the past. It started simply enough: he wrote a series of columns taking as his theme the books listed in Appendix N of the older rules for Advanced Dungeons & Dragons written by Gary Gygax.

And the list is nothing exceptional: nearly anyone alive in those days (as I was) and was familiar with fantasy or science fiction reading of the time (as I was) asked to compile a list of the essential books and authors would, no doubt, have issued nearly the same list. The world was smaller in those days, and we who read science fiction were a breed apart, in our own quarter, and a bookish fan could have read or been familiar with all the talented writers in the field, and the many of the untalented.

But like the man who explores his own basement and find a treasure trove, or opens his ceiling and finds the heavens rolled back like a scroll, Jeffro Johnson made an astonishing discovery: the things he had been told about the old books, the old pulps, the old days were misleading, or even false.

Because there was good stuff here!

Like a single spark in the dry leaves, other columnists and other readers began to reread the Appendix N books, and find that sense of wonder some writers seem willfully to wish to extinguish. Some modern books, sadly, are like a Xerox of a Xerox, and the freshness of the original is lost. Some are written in rebellion against ideas and themes in older works, but the nature of the rebellion is hidden from any reader to whom the old worlds are closed.

The genres were not demarked so clearly then, and the guards at the borders separating one kingdom from another were wont to nod and sleep, or wave through the wonder-hungry traveler without checking his papers. Works written in established worlds, Star Trek and Star Wars or Warhammer backgrounds, were utterly unknown.

Now imagine that there are some (they are rare, but they are real) whose mission is to bar you from those books, and see to it that you never enjoy the luxuries of your inheritance, or drink from the winebottles your grandfather laid down in his cellar long ago. All fashion of sneering accusation spills from these Grand Inquisitors, most of it senseless, telling you either that the artistic tastes or the personal flaws of those writers or those times render their work unfit.

Ignore the Thought Police. Read. Decide. Learn to enjoy what you enjoy. Because the heritage belongs to us all. And who knows? You may find the books that your favorite author read as his favorite books when he was young. All these worlds are yours. You have merely to claim them.

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How Bad is the War Going?

It’s going so bad that the FCC is threatening to institute Israel-style military censorship:

Brendan Carr, chairman of the FCC, has threatened to revoke broadcasters’ licenses over their coverage of the war, accusing several media outlets of “running hoaxes and news distortions.” This comes after President Trump bashed the NYT, WSJ, and other mainstream media outlets for their “intentionally misleading” broadcasting, accusing them of wanting to see America “lose the war.”

Which is amusing in light of how nothing Short Fat Trump says is even remotely true. The idea that Iran is “seeking a deal” but he’s just too strong to accept their terms is openly laughable given how Iran’s spokesman has made it perfectly clear that there is absolutely no point talking to enemies who literally bomb you in the middle of negotiations. Especially when those enemies are crowing about how the war is already over…

I don’t know why any country would negotiate with any Clown World-ruled country. They never abide by any agreements, so there is no point in even pretending to talk to them. Which, of course, drives the wizards mad, because one way to neutralize their word games is to simply not listen to them.

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Is Netanyahu Dead?

  • His house was hit and destroyed by a missile
  • He hasn’t been seen from in over a week
  • The video of him released recently was obviously an AI fake

It’s too soon to be certain one way or the other, but it does raise the question: will Israel surrender if their head of state is killed in an air strike?

I mean, both the US and the Israelis keep going on and on about killing Khamenei as if that was somehow significant with regards to the end of the war, so wouldn’t that indicate that the loss of the Israeli head of state is a decisive strategic factor?

Or do these Clown Worlders simply not know the first thing about war and military history?

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Wizards and Their Games

I absolutely refuse to believe that this is a mere statistical coincidence one day after the release of the Big Bear’s first book, HOW TO SLAY A WIZARD.

That was earlier this morning. It’s already up to #374 #277 #246, which makes it the bestselling book of all the various category bestsellers that Castalia House has published since December. It certainly would be remarkable if it made it all the way to the top of Amazon.

Bears, it’s up to you. In the meantime, the Gammas are showing up, as expected.

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A Tri-Challenge to Veriphysics

Grok has posed a significant epistemological challenge to Veriphysics and its claim to be a genuine alternative to Enlightenment philosophy.

  1. Solution to the Demarcation Problem Show that pseudoscience (astrology, homeopathy, certain strands of string theory, etc.) is precisely the class of claims whose confirmation chains either (a) never reach a structurally warranted base case or (b) terminate arbitrarily (Reading B). Science is the class whose base cases are dictated by the domain structure. Provide a clean decision procedure that correctly classifies at least three historical borderline cases (e.g., phrenology vs. neuroscience, intelligent design vs. evolutionary biology, early vs. mature string theory) and scores them under L/M/E. Classical demarcation (Popperian falsifiability, Lakatosian research programmes, Bayesian confirmation) must be shown to fail where Triveritas succeeds.
  2. Solution to Underdetermination (Duhem-Quine) Demonstrate that underdetermination is an artifact of treating confirmation chains as linear and open-ended. In the Triveritas recursive model, competing theories differ in their base-case structure and in the well-ordering of their evidence trees. One theory will always terminate first at a structurally warranted base case when the evidence chain is extended. Provide a worked historical example (e.g., Ptolemaic vs. Copernican astronomy, or general relativity vs. Nordström’s scalar theory) showing the exact point at which one chain terminates non-arbitrarily while the other continues regressively. Prove that the “underdetermination” disappears once the amphiboly is applied.
  3. Halting-Problem Analogue for Theory Confirmation Explicitly parallel Turing 1936: there is no general algorithm that can decide in advance whether an arbitrary theory will ever be conclusively confirmed or refuted (the general case is undecidable). However, for any specific theory with well-defined base cases and a well-ordering on evidence, termination can be proved (exactly as specific recursive algorithms have termination proofs). Supply at least two real examples of such proofs (one confirming, one refuting) and show why this is stronger than Bayesianism or hypothetico-deductivism.

Athos and I wrote a 22-page paper in response to the challenge. The results are in and the verdict has been announced by Grok.

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HOW TO SLAY A WIZARD

Owen Benjamin has published his first book, HOW TO SLAY A WIZARD. It is smart and it is funny, and it is much deeper than you would ever tend to expect at first glance.

THE SECRET GUIDE TO WORD MAGIC

Spelling is called spelling. Cursive is called cursive. And the most dangerous man in comedy just wrote a book explaining why.

Owen Benjamin grew up hiding under a cardboard desk to survive a nuclear blast, eating margarine because the food pyramid said so, and learning about heroin from a cop who made him act out an overdose in school. He was taught he descended from a primate through random mutation, that he was spinning on a ball of liquid nickel inside an explosion that came from nothing, and that the stars he saw at night were already dead. Then he was tested on everything and told he was smart because he could repeat all of it.

He became a comedian instead.

How to Slay a Wizard is about the people who run the tricks, the tricks themselves, and the one lie at the root of every spell ever cast on a living man or woman. It is not a political book. It is not a religious book. It is a book about manipulation, who does it, how it works, and why it requires your participation to be effective.

Starting from the dictionary definition of “wizard” and working outward through the mechanics of hypnotic language, the economics of fiat currency, the psychology of the con, the architecture of propaganda, and the spiritual sickness that turns a liar into a monster, Owen dismantles every major spell of the modern age and shows you exactly what they have in common. Every spell follows the same structure. Every spell requires the same ingredient. And that ingredient is you.

This book will teach you what a wizard is, what an alchemist is, and why the difference matters. It shows how spells are structured like jokes that never deliver the punchline. It explains why the most forbidden word in America is forbidden and what the vampire myth is actually describing. It tells you how to spot a liar before the lies take root. And at the very end, the book exposes the one lie that has to be believed in order for any of it to work on you. It is so simple you might laugh. That’s the point.

Once you see the secret spells, you will never stop seeing them. And then the wizards can no longer deceive you.

HOW TO SLAY A WIZARD is available via Kindle, KU, and audiobook. Paperback and hardcover editions will be released in about a month. And even if you don’t use audiobooks, listen to the audiobook sample…

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