Tag: decline and fall

The Iranian Expedition

It appears Trump decided to bend the knee to Clown World in the end. Every empire seems to end this way, with imperial overstretch. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Pax Americana is going the way of its predecessors.

It’s disappointing, but after the vaxx debacle and the failure to cross the Rubicon, hardly surprising.

This is yet another betrayal of the American people by yet another president who clearly does not have its national interests in mind. Even if it initially looks as if things are going well for this course of action, well, Iraq and Afghanistan looked pretty good too… at first.

Trump turning neoclown also implies that the USA will renew its military and financial support for Ukraine.

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US Democracy Isn’t Real

Isn’t it remarkable how, dating back to 1914 at the very latest, Americans keep voting for peace and yet somehow find themselves repeatedly enmeshed in funding and fighting foreign wars?

Rachel Blevins: The American people, we keep voting for the guy who is telling us “hey no new wars, we’re going to end the endless wars” right? We’re going to put an end to what has essentially been US foreign policy as we know it, and then not only do they never do it, but we have this growing multipolar world…

COL Macgregor: Americans have to come to the realization that this dichotomy, Democrats and Republicans, is meaningless. We’re really dealing with a uni-party. We’re dealing with an entirely corrupted, dysfunctional system. This thing that we call democracy in the United States is a scam, it’s not real, it’s just not real. When Louis the 16th was crowned King of France, people in the streets in Paris and other cities said “Long live the 16th… as long as the price of bread doesn’t rise.” And in 1789 there was a revolution because the French people in Paris could not afford to buy bread. It spread like wildfire across France. Now pick a commodity, whatever you want in the United States. Pick any place in the United States, and you’ve got a very similar situation right now.

He’s right. I pointed this out back in 2004, and probably even earlier, when I wrote about the bifactional ruling party. I didn’t realize that it was simply the elected face of AIPAC back then, but it was entirely obvious that a) it was a single party with common goals and b) those common goals were antithetical to both American interests and the expressed will of the American people.

So, however painful it might be, in the long run it would probably benefit the American people if the Trump adminstration were to do the will of AIPAC and Prime Minister Netanyahu and embark upon its now-expected Iranian Expedition. Because the nation isn’t going to be freed until the empire falls.

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Why the USA is Under Pressure

If the talking heads are to be believed, Iran is on the brink of surrender and Israel is all but unscathed. But the world press is skeptical and not even the Wall Street Journal is convinced.

Despite claiming major successes against Iran’s military infrastructure, Israel is rapidly depleting its supply of long-range missile interceptors, raising alarm over the sustainability of its defence systems, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a US official familiar with allied intelligence assessments.

The report came amid relentless missile exchanges between Israel and Iran. Since Israel launched Operation Rising Lion last Friday, Iranian forces have fired roughly 400 ballistic missiles — part of an estimated arsenal of 2,000 capable of reaching Israeli territory. Israeli defences, particularly the Arrow system designed to intercept high-altitude ballistic missiles, have managed to neutralise most incoming projectiles, but not without significant strain.

Officials in Tel Aviv told WSJ that one-third of Iran’s missile launchers have been destroyed and claim to have achieved air superiority over Iranian skies. Still, intelligence sources warned that over half of Iran’s missile inventory remains intact, with a portion likely concealed in underground facilities.

The cost of maintaining Israel’s layered missile defence — comprising the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, the Arrow system, and US-supplied Patriots and THAAD batteries — is becoming a critical concern. Israeli financial daily The Marker estimated that nightly missile defence operations are costing up to 1 billion shekels ($285 million). The Arrow system alone fires interceptors priced at $3 million each.

With Iranian missile barrages continuing almost daily, Israeli air defence stockpiles are now under severe pressure. Without rapid resupply from the United States or direct intervention, Israel can maintain its missile defence for 10 or 12 more days if Iran maintains a steady tempo of attacks, a source briefed on US and Israeli intelligence told WSJ. “The system is already overwhelmed. Soon, they may have to choose which missiles to intercept,” the source said.

That strain is beginning to show. On Friday night, Iranian missiles evaded Israel’s defences and struck near the IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv. On Sunday, a direct hit forced the shutdown of a major oil refinery near Haifa. And on Tuesday morning, verified social media videos captured multiple Iranian missile impacts close to Israel’s intelligence compound north of Tel Aviv.

The truth is being obscured by both sides, which is why it’s foolish to try to make any determinations on the basis of the very censored information that is being released by the various military PR agencies. Given that the Israeli/US strategy is based on a combination of airpower and special ops, a combination that has never been particularly successful and has proven all but useless on the modern battlefield in Ukraine, I’m skeptical that it can be successful even if the USA does go in heavily as anticipated.

Also, Steve Bannon is wrong. MAGA will never get behind Trump’s Israel First policy.

Steve Bannon dramatically predicted that Donald Trump’s supporters will rally behind the president if he decides to blow up Iran’s mountain nuclear base.

It’s a massive flip from Trump’s former chief strategist who has in the past been adamantly opposed to strikes against Iran. Bannon said that the MAGA movement will stand by Trump – even if they might not be fully on board with the idea of the U.S. backing Israel ‘s attacks on Iran.

‘If President Trump decides there’s not a diplomatic alternative… because he’s been consistent, no nuclear weapon,’ Bannon said during a Christian Science Monitor event on Wednesday.

He continued: ‘The vast majority of the MAGA movement will say, ‘look, we trust your judgment, you walked us through this… Maybe we hate it but, you know, we’ll get on board.”

No foreign wars, period. We’re rapidly approaching what looks like the USA’s late imperial Sicilian Expedition.

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The Dissolution Proceeds

President Trump deploys the military against the foreign color revolutionaries across the USA:

Numerous incidents of violence and disorder have recently occurred and threaten to continue in response to the enforcement of Federal law by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and other United States Government personnel who are performing Federal functions and supporting the faithful execution of Federal immigration laws. In addition, violent protests threaten the security of and significant damage to Federal immigration detention facilities and other Federal property.

To the extent that protests or acts of violence directly inhibit the execution of the laws, they constitute a form of rebellion against the authority of the Government of the United States.

In light of these incidents and credible threats of continued violence, by the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, I hereby call into Federal service members and units of the National Guard under 10 U.S.C. 12406 to temporarily protect ICE and other United States Government personnel who are performing Federal functions, including the enforcement of Federal law, and to protect Federal property, at locations where protests against these functions are occurring or are likely to occur based on current threat assessments and planned operations.

Further, I direct and delegate actions as necessary for the Secretary of Defense to coordinate with the Governors of the States and the National Guard Bureau in identifying and ordering into Federal service the appropriate members and units of the National Guard under this authority.

The members and units of the National Guard called into Federal service shall be at least 2,000 National Guard personnel and the duration of duty shall be for 60 days or at the discretion of the Secretary of Defense. In addition, the Secretary of Defense may employ any other members of the regular Armed Forces as necessary to augment and support the protection of Federal functions and property in any number determined appropriate in his discretion.

To carry out this mission, the deployed military personnel may perform those military protective activities that the Secretary of Defense determines are reasonably necessary to ensure the protection and safety of Federal personnel and property.

The Secretary of Defense shall consult with the Attorney General and the Secretary of Homeland Security prior to withdrawing any personnel from any location to which they are sent.

The Secretaries of Defense and Homeland Security may delegate to subordinate officials of their respective Departments any of the authorities conferred upon them by this memorandum.

Note that this is the inevitable result of mass immigration that was predicted by proto-nationalists decades ago. It is why the entire immigration debate about crime and economics was always irrelevant and fundamentally missing the point. The reason for banning immigration and protecting the nation’s demographics, as was done in the early 1920s, is to preserve the nature of the society.

A Christian European English-speaking society is always going to be fundamentally different in a broad panoply of ways from a poly-pagan, multiracial, multilingual society, and the transformation from the former to the latter was inevitably going to be an anti-civilizational degradation.

The invasion and occupation of Los Angeles

If Western civilization and societies are going to be restored, there is going to be war, the mass movement of peoples, and the shattering of various organizations and political frameworks, none of which is going to be pleasant for anyone. And yet, that will be much better than the two alternatives of a) a continued descent into chaos or b) the despotic rule of satanic globalists.

The Spanish restored their civilization and society with the Reconquista. That will be the model for the American restoration, if there is to be one.

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America is Gone

The current demographics fail the Twin Peaks metric.

I’m rewatching the show Twin Peaks. It’s a window in time to what this country was like just a quarter of a century ago. Nearly every character is White, and the few minorities stand out like tarantulas on an angel food cake. Everyone dresses well. They are all of normal weight. The women are all feminine and clearly strive to be attractive. It’s a painful, sad reminder of how much we’ve lost. And the incongruity of the commercials, with every actor either Black or Brown, makes it even more glaringly obvious. This country is gone.

It is gone. America is not, and never was, an idea. It was a historical nation, just like any other. You cannot have an American nation and also have a Mexican population, and Indian population, various Asian populations, various African populations, various Arab populations, and half the Jewish nation, and think that the resulting society and institutions are going to be the same, or even reasonably approximate, anymore than you can adulterate a pure substance and expect it to remain pure.

And since the USA has been demographically adulterated, it is no longer an American nation and it will not survive as a singular entity. This is not difficult and this is not ideology. It is simply inevitable.

Both the Chinese and the Russians are fully aware of this, which is why they’re not in any hurry to provoke an unnecessary confrontation with a US military they know will no longer effectively exist within 20 years. Recall the name of the book written by the man who is China’s chief strategist: America Against America.

I saw all of this coming more than 20 years ago. Do you imagine that Wang Hunin didn’t?

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The Collapse of Scientific Materialism

And the end of the Enlightenment. Ted Gioia correctly observes ten warning signs of the comprehensive collapse of the knowledge system known as “modernity”.

  • Scientific studies don’t replicate.
  • Public distrust of experts has reached an intensity never seen before.
  • The career path for knowledge workers is breaking down—and many only have unpaid student loans to show for their years of training and preparation.
  • Funding for science and tech research is disappearing in every sphere and sector.
  • Universities have lost their prestige, and have made enemies of their core constituencies.
  • Plagiarism is getting exposed at all levels from students to corporations—and all the way to Harvard’s president. But the authorities just take it for granted.
  • AI is imposed everywhere as the new expert system. But when it hallucinates and generates ridiculous responses, the authorities (again) take this for granted.
  • Science and technology are increasingly used to manipulate and exploit, not serve. People now see actual degradation in every sphere of technology.
  • Scandals are everywhere in the knowledge economy (Theranos, Sam Bankman-Fried, collapsing meme coins, COVID, etc).
  • We hear constant bickering about “fake science”—from all political and ideological stances. Nobody talks about “true science.”

All of these things are the direct result of the subversive attack on Christendom by Clown World. It is not possible to have science without truth, and it is not possible for Man to recognize truth while rejecting Truth. Modernity is a spiritual and philosophical sickness that is based upon a false foundation of subversion and groundless pride.

Every virtue of Clown World is a vice. Every stated truth is a lie. And it is not possible to build anything, from a functioning school to a thriving society, on what is, in the end, a philosophy of parasites.

What comes next is collapse, followed by the harsh and pitiless rule of those whose devotion to God, truth, and beauty will no know mercy for those who ruined the world due to their stupid and futile ambition to make themselves gods.

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AI Estimate for US Breakup

I asked Deepseek to estimate when the political entity known as the USA would fragment, and a probability estimate for the collapse to begin in 2033 specifically.

Predicting the exact year of a potential political breakup of the United States is highly speculative, but we can approach the question by analyzing historical precedents, current trends, and structural vulnerabilities. Here’s a breakdown:

1. Historical Lifespan of Political Entities

  • The average lifespan of a historical empire or large nation-state is roughly 200-250 years (e.g., Roman Republic ~500 years, Soviet Union ~70 years, British Empire peak dominance ~200 years).
  • The U.S. is currently 248 years old (1776–2024), placing it in the upper range of historical longevity for republics.

2. Key Stressors Increasing Fragmentation Risk

  • Political Polarization: The U.S. is experiencing unprecedented ideological division, with states increasingly governed by diametrically opposed policies (e.g., abortion, gun laws, climate policy).
  • Cultural & Regional Divides: Distinct political identities have solidified (e.g., “Greater Appalachia” vs. “Left Coast” in American Nations by Colin Woodard).
  • Economic Disparities: GDP disparities between states (e.g., California vs. Mississippi) create tensions over federal resource allocation.
  • Loss of Institutional Trust: Declining faith in federal government (Congress approval ~20%, Supreme Court polarization).
  • External Shocks: A major crisis (economic collapse, climate disaster, or AI-driven labor disruption) could accelerate disintegration.

3. Most Vulnerable Breakup Scenarios

  • Soft Secession: States or regions (e.g., Texas, California) increasingly nullify federal laws, leading to de facto autonomy.
  • Constitutional Crisis: A contested election or refusal to accept election results could trigger state-level rebellions.
  • Decentralization via Technology: Blockchain, AI governance, or parallel economies could enable regions to bypass federal systems.

4. Predicted Timeline

Based on historical patterns and current trends, the most plausible range for initial breakup movements is 2030–2070, with key inflection points:

  • 2030s: If polarization worsens and a crisis (e.g., debt default, climate migration) overwhelms federal cohesion, states may test autonomy.
  • 2040–2060: Demographic shifts (e.g., non-white majority, aging population) could fuel regional tensions over representation.
  • Baseline 2033 Probability: 8% (most likely outcome: no breakup).
  • With Crisis: 15–20%.
  • With Multiple Crises + Secessionist Surge: 25–35%.

Conclusion: While 2033 is too early for a spontaneous breakup, an external shock or constitutional crisis could push risk into the 15–25% range. The most likely window remains 2040s–2060s.

I see no reason to alter my original estimate. But it’s interesting to see that what was perceived as an impossibility back in 2004 has now risen to an 8 percent probability sans any crises. Either way, most of you reading this will live to see the end of the USA as it is presently comprised.

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The Irrelevance of the US Navy

China and Iran have just rendered the US Navy irrelevant, as it no longer has the ability to a) infringe upon Iran’s ability to export oil or b) prevent China from obtaining oil. This may be the most significant thing to happen on the global scene since the beginning of the Russian Special Military Operation in 2022.

China and Iran have launched a new rail route that directly links their economies and bypasses U.S. naval power and sanctions. The corridor shortens delivery times, facilitates Iranian oil exports, and strengthens Beijing-Tehran cooperation across the region.

  • The first cargo train from Xi’an, China arrived at Iran’s Aprin dry port near Tehran, marking the start of a new China-Iran rail route.
  • This rail line cuts freight travel time from Shanghai to Tehran from 30 days by sea to just 15 days by land.
  • Railway officials from six nations, including China and Iran, met in Tehran on May 12 to coordinate transcontinental trade standards.
  • The China-Iran rail connection enables oil shipments from Iran to China and the movement of Chinese goods to Europe without U.S. naval oversight.
  • China and Iran signed a 25-year, $400 billion economic cooperation agreement in 2021 as part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.

The successful launch of the Xi’an-Tehran rail link is yet another demonstration of how the US has lost its global hegemony and superpower status. It is still a primary regional power, but it’s ability to project power has been significantly constrained and is now limited to Western Europe and the Americas.

At this point, it is reasonable to suspect that China’s regional dominance over Asia, Africa, and Persia is now more important than the USA’s regional dominance over the Americas and Western Europe, especially since the remnants of Clown World that rule Western Europe are directly opposed to the American national interest.

The current US political structure may not even make it to 2033, which, you may recall, I first predicted publicly 21 years ago, in 2004.

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The Return of the Mercenary

Which raises the natural question: if mercenaries are back, is the return of the City-State next?

At my Australian High School, there was a weekly assembly of all students and time was always set aside for us to sing the national anthem. Yet almost no one sung it. Some would mouth it, others hum, while many did nothing at all. At most someone would start to sing it, lasting about 10 seconds before folding back into the hum. The only exception was our principal, who had served in the military. Even he struggled, and not for lack of memory of the lifeless lyrics, but in the battle against the apathy of everyone around him. This is emblematic of the loss of national consciousness that has occurred in Western countries, though I doubt we Westerners are the only ones. The loss of national consciousness makes the current political order and all others that have been seen since the French Revolution untenable. German-speakers of the 13th century cannot fight for anything but God, family, their local lord or money. The national consciousness simply does not exist.

Shortages of military recruits is a common problem to many Western countries. Despite generally offering salaries + benefits equal to or in excess of what would be found in private industry for an average young man there is a deficit of applicants. The flag simply isn’t motivating enough to die for anymore. This calls in to question the viability of even the professionalised state militaries that are supposed to fight the post-Vietnam Cabinet’s War. Indeed, the United States has been afflicted with an enduring shortage of recruits, this is despite replacing much of their front-line soldiers with mercenaries (Private Military Contractors). The significance of the use of mercenaries can be most clearly seen through their share of total combat deaths. As of 2020, total US military service-member (government soldier) fatalities in Iraq numbered at 4586, while total Private Military Contractor fatalities in Iraq numbered at least 3413. So as at least 43% of total American fatalities in Iraq were American Private Military Contractors. 2009 was the point when American Private Military Contractor fatalities year-on-year surpassed those of US government soldiers. Such a ratio of mercenary to state soldier fatalities in an army is more reminiscent of a medieval campaign than what would have been considered a “modern” war for the last 250 years.


Any attempt to fight the long-term trend of neomedievalism by forcible conscription will end as Vietnam ended. Additionally, any attempt to “change the culture” to get more volunteers will have the same effect as my school principal awkwardly singing the national anthem. The pressure or emotion to “answer the call” of the nation-state has been lost due to multiple factors. The key complaint is “what are we fighting for”. It’s an important one. What precisely a Brit, Australian, Frenchman, American, Canadian etc. is has lost much definition since the end of World War 2, particularly in the last 40 years. Intra-country political and ethno-religious differences now trump inter-country hatred. People also do not trust the media as they once did, so the media does not have a monopoly on truth which it once had. Use of the media is a crucial tool in rallying the masses for secular wars, without it the need for coercion multiplies. Coercion, which the outcome of Vietnam in the United States showed cannot be supplied. I don’t think that there is anything that would cause majority of Western male Zoomers to be out on the streets protesting, rioting or otherwise actively resisting the government; with the sole exception of military conscription to a war. Gen Alpha will be much the same.

Somehow, I don’t think neo-medievalism and all of the incumbent serfdom was what most people had in mind when they bought into the lies of Clown World.

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Solar Power = No Power

The worst thing is that solar power is failing in the springtime in one of the sunniest places in Europe:

Spain’s grid operator admitted today that solar power could be to blame for the blackouts that brought chaos to much of the Iberian peninsular on Monday.

Red Eléctrica’s System Operations Chief Eduardo Prieto told a news briefing the electricity system was hit by a dramatic power generation loss in southwestern Spain, that caused instability in the system that led to its disconnection from the French grid. He said it was quite possible that the affected generation was solar, but it was to early to say for sure. Prieto said the system was now stable and working normally.

The partly state-owned operator’s preliminary assessment ruled out cyberattack as the cause of the outage, he added – after officials had tentatively suggested on Monday it was still a line they were exploring. Criticism has been mounting on the Spanish government to explain the blackouts, which saw planes grounded, trains stopped and traffic brought to a standstill in major cities.

It’s long past time to begin discussing the implications of both climate change and clean energy being constructed on fundamentally false assumptions. How much further does civilization have to decline before we start taking on the challenge of shoring up the foundations that have been systematically weakened for the last 50 years?

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