Tag: Middle East

Guns or Gas?

Larry Johnson thinks he’s figured out why the President and Pentagon called off this weekend’s expected attacks on Iran:

The New York Times published a piece by Eric Schmitt and Jonathan Swan that offers one explanation for Trump’s latest TACO. They write:

President Trump has set aside, at least for now, plans to sharply escalate the American military assault against Iran, with particular concern that intensifying the war could dangerously drain the Pentagon’s already diminished stockpile of Patriot antimissile interceptors and other air defense munitions in the Middle East.

The threat to interceptor stockpiles is one of many considerations that has made a return to major combat operations a hugely risky endeavor, administration officials say. Mr. Trump and his top aides are also uneasy about the prospect of a widening war in the Middle East, the alienation of key Gulf allies who are vulnerable to Iranian attack, a global economic crunch, and growing energy and refugee crises.

But there may be another consideration — one that does not exclude the reasons offered by the NY Times reporters — that involves the US fuel supplies. An economic brief prepared by Karl Miller investigates how the US military’s covert fuel procurement and export operations are depleting the nation’s diesel and jet fuel reserves, particularly during a period when domestic stocks are already critically low. The report details that from May to July, nearly 161 million barrels of distillate and jet fuel were exported, with the East Coast’s buffer falling to less than half its pre-pandemic norm. Much of this fuel is routed through opaque channels, such as the Rotterdam transshipment hub, where the final military or foreign allocation is not publicly reconciled, leaving the American economy exposed to shortage risks while military and foreign operations receive priority access.

A central finding is that the US government operates a parallel, largely unauditable military allocation system that siphons fuel from the civilian market. Public data merges commercial and military fuel categories, and certain military shipments are exempt from standard export reporting, making it impossible to track the true end-use of exported fuel. The report highlights that US taxpayers are subsidizing foreign military fuel needs, notably for Israel, through both direct and likely indirect channels, while the government does not disclose the full extent or funding split of these deliveries. Meanwhile, critical sectors like trucking, agriculture, and civil aviation are left with a diminished safety margin and increased disruption risk.

Miller concludes that the crisis is not due to a collapse in refinery output or a fabricated inventory, but rather a combination of structurally low inventories, high ongoing exports, and fragmented public reporting that obscures the military’s draw on national fuel supplies.

Americans are already angry about being forced to go to war again for Israel. And I suspect that even the great champions of antisemitism recognize that if they are deprived of their ability to drive as the economy gets further hammered by this insane, unnecessary, and ill-fated war, no amount of rhetoric, propaganda, and legal pressure is going to keep a lid on all that irrational, totally unprovoked hate.

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Escalation in the Red Sea

The third front in the War of the Straits is heating up again:

After the Encelia attack (Wednesday) and a further strike Friday on the Saudi vessel NCC MASA (minor hull damage, continued to destination per SPA), the Saudi-led coalition struck Houthi-held Hodeidah late Friday July 24. Al-Maliki framed it as a “proportionate military response against legitimate military targets” — sites used to threaten commercial shipping — and pointedly insisted the port itself wasn’t hit and remains open. The Houthis see it differently: Al Masirah says the strikes hit state telecommunications facilities in Hodeidah city and Kamaran Island (one woman injured there), with explosions reported at the port by Reuters. The Houthi Foreign Ministry warned Riyadh has made “escalation for escalation” the defining feature of the coming phase and that the strike “will prove costly.”

And sure enough, within hours, the Houthis launched 5 ballistic missiles launched at the ARAMCO oil terminal at Jazan Port, Saudi Arabia. The Saudi Aramco facilities in Jazan (also spelled Jizan) represent one of the company’s most ambitious and technologically advanced downstream projects — a fully integrated refinery, petrochemical complex, and power generation hub located in the far southwest of the Kingdom, on the Red Sea coast. The refinery is a full-conversion refinery, meaning it can process heavy crude into high-value light products rather than simply separating crude into fractions. Jazan is the largest gasification-based power facility in the world.

The Jazan complex is not merely a refinery — it is a fully integrated energy ecosystem that converts crude oil into refined products, petrochemicals, electricity, hydrogen, and industrial metals, all while minimizing waste and emissions. It represents Saudi Aramco’s vision of a smarter, lower-carbon downstream future and serves as the economic anchor for one of the Kingdom’s most ambitious regional development initiatives. In other words, the Houthis hit an extremely important Saudi Arabian energy asset.

The ball is now in the Saudi court. Will they escalate and attack the port facilities at Hodeidah or will they decide to call a halt to military operations and seek a diplomatic resolution? The smart move will be to go the diplomatic route. If they choose to strike more targets in Houthi-held territory then the Houthis’ next logical target would be the oil terminals at Yanbu.

Rather like Hitler in the Berlin bunker, Clown World is so desperate to keep its claws on the controls that it is not only risking its own fate, but the entire economic fate of the West on wars that are objectively unwinnable. And it appears that they will be attempting their own run for Argentina before they throw in the towel.

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A Strange New Regard for Peace

Larry Johnson contemplates why Israel’s warhawks and US neocons are being conspicuously quiet while Trump is pounding the war drums again:

During the first five weeks of Epic Fury Israel’s refineries in Haifa and Ashdod were hit and suffered significant damage. Those two refineries are essential for Israel’s ability to produce diesel and jet fuel. At present Israel is scraping by, but it does not have substantial reserves. Further damage to those refineries would create a fuel crisis for Israel, especially in terms of its ability to produce jet fuel. Without jet fuel, Israel’s ability to continue bombing Lebanon and Gaza would be severely constrained, if not eliminated. A lack of diesel would also cripple Israel’s ground operations. In short, renewed Iranian attacks on Israel’s refineries could leave Israel unable to continue military operations.

Translation: Israel knows the IDF will lose the next round. Washington, however, is not convinced of its own inability to defeat Iran. However, I don’t think that failing to join the incipient strikes is going to convince anyone, least of all the Iranian military strategists, that Israel has turned over a new leaf and genuinely wants peaceful coexistence in the region.

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Let’s You and Him Fight

“The State of Israel has no interest in joining the contained confrontation between Iran and the United States — the current situation is the best one for us.” – Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich

No doubt they don’t. But Israel had better use the time Trump has given it wisely, as it appears Iran is gearing up to take Kuwait and perhaps one or two other Gulf States now that it has reason to doubt the US military’s ability to engage in a ground war in the Middle East. That’s the problem with bluffing. Once your bluff gets called, you lose your ability to control the game.

“It is wrong to sacrifice a 19-year-old American girl for the Israeli regime.”

It is wrong to sacrifice any American for any foreign regime. But Trump was right. He’s not going to Heaven. Whether it was out of fear or out of greed, he chose to serve Hell. In fact, he still chooses to serve it. He could end both the Iran and the Ukraine wars tomorrow, but for one reason or another, he refuses to do so.

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“A Historic Disaster”

How is it possible that the White House doesn’t know what everyone paying attention seems to know? And why is the administration still listening to the same people who lost Afghanistan, Ukraine, and Iran Round One?

As both sides escalate strikes on civilian and military targets, the Pentagon is boosting the number of military aircraft in the Middle East, according to the Washington Post. “The US is planning for a wider war,” an unnamed US official told the paper, while warning that the American military effort would be limited by dwindling air defense interceptor and missile supplies, which had been actively used up during the previous stages of the war.

“We do not have enough to safely sustain operations, and I don’t think the White House is aware of that,” the official told the Post. Military experts cited in the report said Washington remains unprepared for potential ground operations inside Iran–an option US President Donald Trump has refused to rule out.

On Friday, Axios reported that Washington had notified Israel that it was sending dozens of additional refueling planes ahead of a possible expansion of operations against Iran. According to the article, Trump was presented with several new military options, including strikes on Iranian power plants and further attacks on nuclear sites to bury Tehran’s stockpile of enriched uranium even deeper.

Saeid Golkar, an expert on Iran’s security services, told the Wall Street Journal that the situtation risks getting completely out of hand. “This escalation is rapidly intensifying and getting out of control,” he said. “There is a risk we will go back to a total war even if neither side wants it.”

A CNN analysis suggested that “a decisive US military victory over Iran seems a distant prospect.” In echoing remarks, Sina Toosi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, warned that a ground operation “in extreme summer heat… against a fully mobilized military and a population that has largely rallied around the war effort, would be an extraordinary gamble practically guaranteed to be a historic disaster.”

As we saw at the presentation of the World Cup trophy yesterday, Trump doesn’t seem to understand when it’s time to get off the stage.

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The Next False Flag

It seems unlikely that Sen. Graham’s death was natural, although the timeline of his movements tends to suggest Russian involvement rather than Iranian responsibility, the latter’s Lego video notwithstanding. But I can’t imagine that makes other anti-Iranian figures who now find themselves targeted any better.

We’re already heading for a much more dangerous world now that 5GW is here and drones can be used by just about anyone and any organization pretty much anywhere. But if Iran has actually decided to go ahead and adopt the “rise up and kill” tactics against their enemies that Israelis have been using for decades, we’re going to see a lot of US public figures being affected as a result of their relentlessly bloodthirsty calls for invading Iran, killing Iranian leaders, and establishing an empire in the Middle East.

My suspicion is that there is one last card that the neocons will attempt to play. The short fat Trump is old and of demonstrably limited utility now. He has proven absolutely unable to unite Americans behind his ill-fated war on Iran. So, it’s not hard to see why Trump was recently speaking so darkly about his own future prospects, although I think those who are counting on Americans rising up in fury against Iran for one reason or another are again reading the international tea leaves incorrectly.

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
1000 Missiles are Locked and Loaded and aimed at the Islamic Republic of Iran, with thousands of more to immediately follow, should the Iranian Government act on its threat, pronounced in many corners of the Globe, to assassinate, or attempt to assassinate, the sitting President of the United States of America, in this case, ME! Orders have already been given, and the U.S. Military is ready, willing, and able, for a one year period of time, subject to extension, to completely decimate and destroy all areas of Iran – PRAISE BE TO ALLAH! President DONALD J. TRUMP

However, Americans do not want to fight Iran under any circumstances that don’t involve Iran physically invading Florida, Texas, or the Midwest. They just want the US to permit Iran to manage the Strait of Hormuz in a way that permits the oil to flow, even if it is taxed by Iran. But just because there are no serious prospects for the effectiveness of a false flag, or even a potential green flag, doesn’t mean that a sufficiently desperate Clown World won’t roll the dice with one.

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Two Empty Aircraft Carriers

The USS Abraham Lincoln Aircraft Carrier has been moved to within 250 kilometers of Iran’s coastline and Hypersonic, anti-ship missiles — with NO DESTROYER ESCORTS to protect it. A SECOND Aircraft Carrier, the USS George H.W. Bush (our newest carrier) has now taken up a position even CLOSER to Iran’s coastline: 170 kilometers from Iran’s hypersonic anti-ship missiles. The George HW Bush is escorted by two (2) Destroyers.

I suspect the Iranians won’t take the bait. And even if they do, if Trump and the neocons think pair of aircraft carriers on the bottom of the Sea of Oman are going to whip Americans into a frenzy of support for Netanyahu’s war, I think they’ll be very surprised.

And it wouldn’t surprise me if all four ships have skeleton crews and no aircraft on them. This is exactly the sort of Very Clever Gambit that the eternal Smart Boys think is genius.

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The Verdict of Mars

Success always contains the seeds of failure. Unfortunately, Donald Trump doesn’t realize that his strategic bluffery has been comprehensively called by Iran and its allies.

US President Donald Trump has declared the fragile ceasefire with Iran “over” after the US military conducted a series of strikes on the Islamic Republic over alleged attacks on three tankers that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz. On Wednesday, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said it hit dozens of Iranian ground and navy targets “in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” denouncing Tehran for “aggression [that] was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire.”

Iranian media reported that one of the tankers – which was linked to Qatar – was attacked as it was sailing through the strait and “ignoring repeated warnings.” A government source told Press TV that any traffic through the chokepoint should be approved by Tehran.

As tensions escalated, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said it launched strikes on dozens of US military assets in Bahrain and Kuwait, adding that it downed an American MQ-9 drone.

Speaking on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, Türkiye, Trump lashed out at the Iranian leadership, calling them “scum,” “cuckoo,” “sick,” “vicious, [and] violent people,” and confirmed that the ceasefire is “over.”

“I don’t want to deal with them… I’ll speak to our negotiators that want to negotiate… [but] as far as I’m concerned, it’s just a waste of time dealing with them. They’re liars,” he said.

So when the economy implodes, understand that it is Netanyahu and Trump who are the two primary individuals responsible. They chose to fight this war. And it looks like every deranged leader in history who couldn’t bring himself to accept the verdict of Mars and throw in the towel before defeat became undeniable, they’re going to take the ship down with them.

Remember, Iran defeated the Epstein Alliance with only a small amount of assistance from its allies. Even if the US and Israel up their antes, Iran will be able to call them and raise. And I don’t think the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia are going to stay onside for long.

UPDATE: “the USS Michael Murphy (DDG-112) took a direct hit from an Iranian “Noor” ASCM, after their IADS system failed to intercept a swarm attack, last night. The ship is on currently on fire and there are significant casualties. Multiple KIA. Early reports of the her sinking are premature.”

The report is as yet unconfirmed, but don’t hold your breath expecting the Department of War to do so even if it was sunk and lost with all hands.

UPDATE: In the initial response to this aggression, the naval and aerospace forces of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, in a joint missile and drone operation, struck 85 locations of important US military facilities at Salman Port, the US Fifth Fleet area in Bahrain, and Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait”

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The Consequences Cometh

  • Cuba has been hit by another island-wide blackout, leaving roughly 10 million people without power. Officials say the cause is under investigation as the country’s aging electric grid continues to struggle and fuel reserves run low. It’s the second nationwide blackout this year.
  • She said nothing new is coming in and some tanks are shut down and the rest are running out. I asked how much longer it’ll last for New Jersey, and she said nobody knows. She said nobody at work wants to talk about it at all, its like people can’t face what is coming and are just blocking out reality. She also mentioned that motor oil is gone. She is in the section for giving rebates on past huge taxes on motor oil, but there isn’t any more being bought.
  • The first report has come in claiming 60% of the pumps at Buc-ee’s in Melissa, TX are SHUT OFF and “most Diesel pumps are closed.”
  • A nationwide power outage occurred in Zimbabwe today, Monday 6 July at 1824 hours.

Further evidence that trying to fight Israel’s war with Iran was the dumbest idea of the Trump administration since the decision to renege on the promise to release the Epstein files.

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Nothing to Fight With

The US military is unlikely to engage in large-scale hostilities in July or August because it lacks the necessary fuel:

On March 11, 2026, US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright announced the release of 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) over approximately 120 days in response to rising oil prices resulting from United States attacks on Iran. At that drawdown pace — roughly 1.4 million barrels per day — the sour component of the SPR would be depleted of the released portion within the 120-day window, without any Persian Gulf replacement arriving via Cape routing until late summer at the earliest. So let’s do the math: 20 days in March, 30 days in April, 31 days in May, 30 days in June = 111 days. In other words, we have 9 days of sour crude left in the SPR.

This could be a deception of some sort, but even if there wasn’t a shortage of jet fuel and ship fuel, the larger problem of Iranian drones and Iranian missiles remains. The only reason war is still on the horizon is because a) Israel is trying to keep the US military in the Middle East and b) Clown World is trying to hold onto power in Europe and the USA.

But neither effort is likely to work, and more war is only going to make the new situation all that much more obvious to the world.

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