Tag: Middle East

They Tell You It’s Not Real

Both /pol/ and Dr. Mark Trozzi have been warning Americans about the scenario from The National Blueprint for Biodefense that involves a bioweapon attack that kills 280,000 Americans on July 4, 2025. Now, we all know that these “hypothetical scenarios” and “training exercises” are sometimes, though not usually, cover for the launch of the real thing. But what I found most interesting, in perusing the document, was the way in which its intrinsic falsity was clearly conveyed within the document itself.

Where, my fellow Omni-Narrational Skeptic, is the clue that this urgent biodefense blueprint is pure bureaucratic fiction?

We also believe that the United States, its allies, and partners in industry, academia, and nongovernmental organizations can eliminate pandemics entirely in 10 years by fully implementing the recommendations we made in our earlier report, The Apollo Program for Biodefense. Ending pandemics is more achievable today than landing on the Moon was in 1961.

THE APOLLO PROGRAM FOR BIODEFENSE
Technology holds great promise. Within weeks of recognizing the existence of COVID-19, scientists mapped its entire genome and developed and produced vaccines faster than ever before. They accomplished these previously unimaginable feats because of forward-looking programs (e.g., Human Genome Project, advanced research programs that previously led to many vaccines currently used to treat a variety of diseases). Nonetheless, we failed to adequately harness scientific and technological capabilities, and undermined response efforts by failing to implement new strategies and defenses. We have an unknown period to address those shortcomings before the next devastating pandemic occurs.

The need to control COVID-19 created momentum to produce many technologies that we previously lacked the will and resources to pursue before the pandemic began. We need to build on that progress and push for technological advances to protect us from the next biological threat. Our Nation rises to seemingly impossible challenges by pursuing grand programs. The United States can similarly put an end to pandemics within a decade, but only with leadership, resources, and interest that go beyond technical constraints and the usual crisis-neglect cycles.

The United States should leverage basic research portfolios to study pathogens of concern, conduct pre-clinical and clinical testing of priority and prototype pathogens, develop products to detect and treat the diseases they cause. These programs must involve domestic, international, private, and public sector partners.

The Commission proposed The Apollo Program for Biodefense in 2021 to undertake targeted research and development to detect and continually trace any new pathogen from the source, distribute rapid point-of-use tests to every household and farm in the country within days of that detection, have effective treatments already in-hand, and develop and rollout vaccines in weeks rather than years. This ambitious program, at about $10 billion annually for ten years, would be a small fraction of the trillions in costs incurred by the COVID-19 pandemic and would contribute immensely to our country’s public health, economic, and national security.

As they say, space may be the final frontier, but it’s filmed in a Hollywood basement. Which means that any “biodefense” program is almost certainly cover for domestic bioattacks on the citizenry. And we can even see whom the parties we’re supposed to believe will be responsible are.

The Department of State assesses that China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia continue to engage in biological weapons-specific or dual-use research activities, and fail to comply with the BWC. New state programs can still access caches of incompletely destroyed or buried biological weapons materials from old state programs, and then smuggle them to other regions for use by today’s militaries and terrorist organizations. Weapons that once consumed a great deal of time and resources to make now take far less, and what the United States could accomplish more than 40 years ago, others can accomplish today.

Now, despite all this documentaion, I tend to doubt that there will be any bioweapon attack on July 4th, and if there is, it will, like the Covid-19 and vaccine attacks, almost certainly be less effective than intended. It also won’t be Iran who is responsible, although obviously that’s who the next false flag will be blamed upon since Clown World still can’t quite wrap its collective head around the fact that it somehow didn’t manage to trigger its long-sought US-Iran war despite multiple attacks by Israel and by the USA itself.

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Iran’s Deep Bench

Given the proclivity of both the USA and Israel to wage war through assassination and regime change, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that their enemies are now anticipating decapitation strikes, which was the section of this interview with a former Iranian general that caught my attention.

There’s the issue of the leadership vacuum the Zionist entity sought to create by assassinating leaders of the Revolutionary Guard, followed by subsequent operations. But what we witnessed instead was the strength of our armed forces: leadership positions were filled within just three to four hours, and the command structure was swiftly and efficiently reorganized. What did the people witness afterward? How do you assess the Zionist entity’s belief that creating a leadership vacuum would weaken you?

Mohsen Rezaei: I believe Israel made a grave military miscalculation. They assumed Iran was similar to Hezbollah, even though they themselves have failed to dismantle Hezbollah. They should have learned from that experience. Look at the leadership figures that have emerged within our armed forces. Major General Pakpour, for example, is an exceptionally strong field commander—courageous, with a remarkable operational vision.

Amir Hatami, who joined from the regular army, is a brave and seasoned officer. The same goes for Mr. Mousavi in the aerospace sector. And also for Mr. Mousavi who succeeded the martyred General Bagheri in the General Staff—he is a dedicated man, aligned with the resistance movement.

Though they come from the regular army, there is full coordination between them and the Revolutionary Guards. What the enemy did failed to create any structural void within the armed forces. In fact, it could be said that certain aspects have grown more effective, as recent events have shown. That’s one point.

Secondly, we now have no fewer than ten additional layers of trained commanders and officers—some from the generation that fought in the war, and others who gained valuable field experience in later years, particularly in the fight against ISIS. Many of our forces who fought in Iraq and Syria against ISIS have, through those field experiences, become akin to senior war commanders like Hussein Kharrazi and Ahmad Kazemi—young, capable leaders fully prepared to command the armed forces.

It was a profound error on the part of the Israeli military not to recognize the deep hierarchical structure and the robust bench of ready leadership within our ranks. This internal architecture and the organizational evolution of the armed forces entirely compensated for any potential gaps. In my view, this challenge has already been overcome. And in the near future, our dear people will see that those who have stepped into the shoes of our fallen leaders will ensure that no imbalance or vacuum arises in the management of the armed forces.

The high command—led by His Eminence, the Commander—is fully acquainted with each of these leaders. They have been selected with care and discernment. I am absolutely confident that there will be no void in leadership.

A very common mistake often seen throughout military history is projection, or analyzing the enemy as if it were a mirror image of one’s own forces. Both Israel and the USA have very thin strategic and command benches, which is why they assume that taking out the top layer or two of enemy leadership will lead to complete confusion and disarray.

Which, to be fair, would likely happen in the case of either country suffering the loss of its leadership. But it’s clear that Iran and China are both very well prepared in an institutional sense for rapid leadership transitions that will avoid the confusion and military paralysis that are the primary objective of decapitation strikes. Russia, perhaps not so much, which may account for the monomaniacal focus on President Putin’s well-being, although my suspicion is that his successor will be less patient with the West and more hardline.

Regime change works when you’ve got your candidate all ready and in position to assume command and negotiate a surrender. But it can’t when you don’t have a candidate, and worse, the enemy is already set up to make a series of orderly transitions if necessary.

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A Failed Modus Operandi

Simplicius believes the recent conflict suddenly ended by the US-imposed ceasefire reflects a third, and more serious, failure by the Israeli military:

It is now clear that Israel relied on a favored go-to modus operandi in its past three conflicts. Israel has now lost against Hamas, lost against Hezbollah, and lost to Iran. Each time, its face-saving strategy was to “decapitate the leadership”, particularly the well-known personalities like Nasrallah, Haniyeh, etc., and pretend this is somehow a war winning stroke.

In reality, it did nothing each time. Israel still lost the fight on the ground—or in the air, as it were, against Iran. Israel’s putrid army proved incapable of winning real conflicts and had to rely entirely on PR victories and America’s bank to fund various sabotage and extortion schemes against enemy political and military figures.

Think about it this way: in ten or twenty years, what will be remembered about today, the names of a few random “Iranian generals” that Israel “masterfully killed” via cowardly sneak attacks, or the fact that Israeli cities burned for the first time, Israel failed to defang Iran’s nuclear program, and flopped at every other major objective it had, including regime change?

The fact is, Israel suffered an historic humiliation that has destroyed its mystique and reputation as some kind of ‘military juggernaut’ forever. Iran can now learn from its mistakes, rebuild the few launchers and AD systems it lost, and potentially sign new pacts with Russia-China that can expand its defense capabilities.

It is interesting, however, that Iran’s airforce did not seem to participate at all—some experts suggest Iran likely relocated it entirely to the far east of the country and simply kept it out of harm’s way for the duration. Given that Israel’s air-farce was also a no-show over the country, one supposes it wasn’t an altogether bad idea.

In fact, Iran masterfully conserved its limitations and leveraged its greatest advantages during this conflict, thus limiting the damage it suffered. Too bad we’ll never know the full extent of Iran’s missile capabilities given how desperately Israel guarded any ‘sensitive’ damage leaks about the strikes on its territory. But due to how uncharacteristically quickly Israel leaped at the ceasefire offer, logic dictates that the damage Iran meted was significant and unsustainable.

In the aftermath of a narrowly-avoided disaster, we should keep in mind the Israeli triumphalism from less than two weeks ago:

  • The decision to start a war was all Netanyahu’s. And here he is, deciding and responsible: all the credit is his. Trump gave Israel the green light to start a war, provided that it does not present America as a partner and responsible. – Nahum Barnea (Yedioth Ahoronot)
  • The need for the series of assassinations last week first emerged as a thought last September, among senior officials in Unit 8200, the research division in the Intelligence Directorate, the Mossad, and other parts of the system. The trigger was the defeat inflicted by the IDF on Hezbollah, followed by the successful attack on Iran and the destruction of its air defence system in October, followed in December by the collapse of the Assad regime in Damascus and the destruction of its air defence system by the IDF. The sequence of events led many senior Israeli officials to believe that an unprecedented opportunity had arisen, a window of a lifetime, to attack Iran. – Ronan Bergman (Yedioth Ahoronot)
  • Ten days ago, on the eve of Israel’s historic action, I stood here and placed a note that read: ‘Behold, a nation shall rise like a lion’. Now, ten days later, I return to the same place and leave a note that reads: ‘Behold, a nation has risen like a lion – the Nation of Israel lives!’ – Benjamin Netanyahu

And just like that, in less than two weeks, the window of a lifetime is closed. The thinking of the senior Israeli officials appears to have been very much as an Israeli who knows his country’s elite and is well-versed in their thinking once described it to me: tactical cleverness with neither interest in nor aptitude for strategy.

The fundamental problem that Israel, as a country, and AIPAC as a political control device, have is that rhetoric, subversion, and clever tactical maneuvers only work so long as you’re not actually responsible for making things work, feeding everyone, keeping the lights on, and actually winning wars rather than a skirmish here and there. The reason Israel – and the Israel-influenced USA – always rely on regime change instead of military victory as the primary objective is because they are locked into a subversive and short-term mindset.

But sooner or later, when those who are influenced over inevitably comprehend that your grand plans for the future requires not only their suppression, but elimination, they’re not going to respond favorably to all the subversion anymore. Which is why Clown World lost Russia, why it lost China, and why it will lose America as soon as the indoctrinated Boomers lose their political and societal influence. No amount of belief in one’s intrinsic superiority or sociopathic indifference to everyone else, however genuine, are ever going to compensate for a complete inability to run a stand-alone society, let alone a regional empire. But no failing empire, however small, ever fades away gently into the historical night.

Translation: false flags are coming. The assumption is New York City, given the growing hysteria over Zohran Mamdani’s apparent victory in the Democratic primary for the Mayor’s office, and the sinking of the USS Nimitz, but they could take place in anywhere, in any form.

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More Kabuki

Iran launched at least 10 missiles at two U.S. military bases Qatar and Iraq on Monday in response to President Donald Trump bombing its nuclear labs over the weekend. Tehran targeted Al Udeid Air Base in Doha – where more than 10,000 American troops and 100 aircraft, strategic bombers and tankers are stationed – in a strike as President Trump convened his national security team at the White House. US officials had evacuated at least 40 aircraft from the base in recent days and moved an unknown number of troops, and said after Monday’s retaliation that ‘at this time, there are no reports of US casualties.’

Kabuki confirmed. Apocalypse-minded Christian Zionists hardest hit.

Iran coordinated the attacks on the American air base in Qatar with Qatari officials and gave advanced notice that attacks were coming to minimize casualties, according to three Iranian officials familiar with the plans. The officials said Iran symbolically needed to strike back at the U.S. but at the same time carry it out in a way that allowed all sides an exit ramp; they described it as a similar strategy to 2020 when Iran gave Iraq heads up before firing ballistic missiles an American base in Iraq following the assassination of its top general.

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US Begs China for Help

Are we seriously supposed to believe that no one in the Trump administration took the probability of Iran restricting global oil supplies into account?

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on China to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping routes. His comments came after Iran’s state-run Press TV reported that parliament had approved a plan to close the Strait but added that the final decision lies with the Supreme National Security Council.

Any disruption to the supply of oil would have profound consequences for the economy. China in particular is the world’s largest buyer of Iranian oil and has a close relationship with Tehran.

Oil prices rose following the US attack on Iranian nuclear sites, with the price of the benchmark Brent crude reaching its highest level in five months.

“I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them [Iran] about that, because they heavily depend on the Straits of Hormuz for their oil,” Rubio had said in an interview with Fox News on Sunday. “If they [close the Straits]… it will be economic suicide for them. And we retain options to deal with that, but other countries should be looking at that as well. It would hurt other countries’ economies a lot worse than ours.”

I would be too sure about that, given the way China obviously foresaw the need to avoid utilizing the more traditional sea routes.

On May 25, 2025, the first freight train from Xi’an, China, arrived at the Aprin dry port, Iran, marking the official launch of a direct rail link between the two countries. This new logistical artery significantly reduces transit times (from 30–40 days by sea to roughly 15 days by land) yielding a direct impact on transportation costs. This railway is part of a much larger and broader East-West Corridor that is designed to link China, physically, with a trade route directly to Africa, and to Europe, without having to use the more traditional sea trade routes.

An oil tanker carries between 500k and 2 million barrels of oil. 18.5 million barrels transit the Straits of Hormuz every day, which means about 18 tankers per day. China utilizes 16 million barrels per day, although obviously not all of it comes through the Straits.

A rail tanker car carries 700 barrels and Canada ships 150,000 barrels by rail every day from the Albert oil sands. Taking the faster rail delivery time into account, it would require 9,150 rail cars to replace those 16 daily tankers, and a total of 274,500 rail cars to meet the daily oil requirements without a hitch. That sounds like a lot, until you observe that the China Railway Rolling Stock Corp. is the world’s leading manufacturer of rolling stock, with the capacity to manufacture over 500 high-speed train sets, 12,000 subway cars and 50,000 freight cars per year.

I think it is safe to assume that China has already built the 300k or so freight cars required to replace the 1,120 sea tankers that historically supplied it, given that they didn’t just start building the Aprin-Xi’an link in 2024 and the two countries signed an economic cooperation pact in 2021.

However, China doesn’t transport all its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. It only obtains about one-third of it that way, 5.1 million barrels per day. So it only needs a total of 87,500 freight cars to substitute for that particular source. Which, one notes, the Chinese could have completed before the launch of the railroad if they started manufacturing them as recently as August 2023.

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MIGA is Backpedaling Fast

Vice-President Vance: We did not attack the nation of Iran. We did not attack any civilian targets. We didn’t even attack military targets outside of the three nuclear weapons facilities.

US Vice President J.D. Vance does not support his country’s involvement in the conflict between Israel and Iran, Reuters has reported, citing two informed sources.

Trump, Vance, and all the newly-converted neoclowns aren’t MAGA. They’re MIGA and now the whole world knows it. Trump has made the mistake of thinking that just because he jumped in front of the parade, the parade will go wherever he wants to go.

They’re all confirmed to be the owned property of Clown World. No matter how they spin and produce their own magic word spells, it’s not going to fool anyone who genuinely wants to make America great again, because foreign wars on behalf of AIPAC and Israel are exactly what has turned America into a pale and weak shadow of what made it great in the first half of the 20th century.

The stealth jet squadron slipped into enemy skies, moving into attack formation at ‘high altitude and high speed’, with lighter, more mobile F-22 fighter jets sweeping in front of the B-2s to shield them from any surface-to-air or air-to-air fire. There was none. Not a single shot was fired at any of the aircraft or warships involved in Midnight Hammer from the beginning of the operation to its end.

And that wasn’t suspicious at all? Nothing has been able to fly safely over Ukraine or Russia for the last three years, but USAF jets are just so gosh darn sneaky that Iran didn’t even lift a finger to try to stop them…

Sounds like another green flag to me.

Simplicius has reached a similar conclusion:

Iran knew the exact epicenter the B-2s would have to converge on and yet was unable to even attempt to engage them? Could the scriptwriters have written a more schlockily improbable series of events? They could have at least added a few ‘glory moments’ of F-35s and F-22s shooting down a couple Iranian fighter craft for effect.

Recall that the US was having severe problems even operating just outside of Yemeni airspace, with not only F-35s nearly shot down, but two F-18s lost to panicked defensive maneuvers, as well as one other shot down by US air defense, and a fourth “nearly shot down” in the same operation.

So, Houthi air defenses can engage F-35s, but an entire sky swarming with B-2s, F-35s, F-22s, and other planes were not detected at all by Iran, whose IADS is likely dozens of times stronger than Yemen’s? Keep in mind the Pentagon spokesman also said the strike package included fourth generation craft that flew all the way to central Iran, which presumably refers to F-16s and F-15s—but for some bizarre reason Iran “never fired a shot”.

Sound suspicious to anyone else?

And after all these strikes, countless claims of Israeli “total aerial control”, there is still not a single video of a foreign craft over the skies of Iran. The B-2s were even seen flying back over New Jersey on their ‘heroe’s return’, yet no one in a nation of 90 million saw or heard anything on this most ‘mysterious’ of nights.

Something’s rotten in the state of HasbarAmerica.

So, yes, I’m convinced Iran decided to take US’ offer and allowed safe passage of the strike package to rain a few insignificant ‘token’ strikes on Fordow with the understanding that this was the US’ price for exiting the conflict.

Now, there are rumors that Israel may use the given ‘off-ramp’ as pretense to likewise conclude a new deal and end hostilities, given that Israel has exhausted itself and is now losing a war of attrition against Iran.

Indeed, there has been what appears to be a certain amount of excessive bluster and over-the-top playacting of late.

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Team Trump and Bibi

That’s the word right from the short, fat Trump’s mouth:

President Donald Trump addressed the nation on Saturday night after announcing strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites via Truth Social. Speaking from the Oval Office accompanied by Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, the President said, “Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks would be far greater and a lot easier.” He also reached out to Israeli leadership, saying, “I want to thank and congratulate Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. We worked as a team. Like perhaps no team has ever worked before, and we’ve gone a long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel.”

Meanwhile:

  • Iranian state radio: the Fordow nuclear facility sustained no significant damage in the US strike.
  • IDF officials: there is a slim possibility the Fordow facility was not destroyed.
  • Iran’s Center for the National Nuclear Safety System: confirmed the attack, but said that emergency inspections at the affected facilities have found no signs of radioactive contamination or leaks.
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency: no increase in radiation levels has been reported at Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan.

Remember, the one thing the media never, ever, reports is the real story and the actual truth. And everything about Clown World is fake and gay.

The one thing that we can be sure of is that if a) nukes are real and b) the Iranian capacity for building them remains sufficiently intact, the Iranians are going to acquire some nukes in short order. I’d be shocked if they didn’t already acquire some from North Korea or Pakistan.

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The Iranian Expedition

It appears Trump decided to bend the knee to Clown World in the end. Every empire seems to end this way, with imperial overstretch. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Pax Americana is going the way of its predecessors.

It’s disappointing, but after the vaxx debacle and the failure to cross the Rubicon, hardly surprising.

This is yet another betrayal of the American people by yet another president who clearly does not have its national interests in mind. Even if it initially looks as if things are going well for this course of action, well, Iraq and Afghanistan looked pretty good too… at first.

Trump turning neoclown also implies that the USA will renew its military and financial support for Ukraine.

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Why Pakistan Backs Iran

Despite launching attacks on each other in 2024, Iran and Pakistan have found common ground against Israel for a very good reason: Israel has attacked both countries since May 2025:

It was only early last year that Iran launched missile and drone strikes into Pakistan’s Balochistan region on 16 January, targeting extremist militant group Jaish al-Adl positions. Pakistan retaliated two days later on 18 January, conducting air and missile strikes into Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province in an operation dubbed Marg Bar Sarmachar. The tit-for-tat was remarkably friendly in the final analysis, and appears to have settled some critical border cooperation issues between the two states.

The fact that these former adversaries – who had just engaged in direct military exchanges – have now adopted “resolute solidarity” is nothing short of breathtaking.

Beijing’s embrace of Iran is grounded in energy security and strategic depth instead. Its ambitious, multi-trillion dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aimed at linking the Eurasian landmass hinges on the stability of Tehran and Islamabad, with the Gwadar and Chahbahar ports forming key arteries in China’s westward expansion. China also supplies J-10 fighter jets and HQ‑9 air‑defense systems to Pakistan, which played key roles in the extraordinary May 2025 skirmish between India and Pakistan – marking major testing ground for Chinese weapons. A parallel circumstance is present in Iran. China must acknowledge Iran because it is a crucial supporter of China’s energy needs and trade operations.

“The enemy of my friend is my enemy” may well define the new tripartite logic binding Iran, Pakistan, and China in resistance to Israeli and western designs.

Tel Aviv’s recent strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure mark a new phase in a decades-long western strategy aimed at dismantling Muslim powers resistant to colonial domination. Iraq, Syria, Libya – all were destabilized under similar pretexts. The 2001 plot, conceived by the US, its European allies, and Israel, has entered its second phase, targeting Iran initially and Pakistan subsequently. In a 2011 interview with Channel 2, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu laid bare the logic: Iran and Pakistan are the primary targets of this containment strategy, he stated blankly. “These radical regimes … pose a significant threat,” he said, stressing the need to prevent them from acquiring nuclear capability.

But recent Israeli provocations have instead triggered multipolar resistance to those plans. Speaking to The Cradle, Abdullah Khan of the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) reveals that Israeli drone operators had recently attempted to sabotage Pakistan’s nuclear facilities during the India–Pakistan crisis:

“Israeli drone operators were stationed in Indian operation rooms during the recent Pakistan–India conflict, trying to target Pakistan’s nuclear facilities. However, prompt action from Pakistan thwarted their efforts, preventing them from causing any damage to the nuclear assets of Pakistan.”

I don’t know if it is hubris or desperation, but at this point, it wouldn’t be a big surprise if Israel attacked China for one reason or another. China, after all, is the primary threat to Clown World.

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Turkey is Next

Simplicius explains why the world is increasingly supportive of Iran and disinclined to permit Israel anything that looks like a victory against Iran:

Israeli figures and media are already salivating at the prospect of what’s next after Iran, with various posts about Qatar, Turkey, and Pakistan all being lined up for disarmament and dismantling. Israel likewise continues begging Trump to ‘finish the job’ as if the plan all along was merely for Israel to “open up” the gates for US firepower.

And of course, that is the case—Israel never had the endurance to go twelve full rounds with Iran, and the hope was always that US would step in, which is why everything now depends on Trump and his tiny cohort of string-pullers.

But again, judging by Araghchi’s defiance, Iran does not seem in a particular hurry to genuflect to the Empire. This can only mean that Iran likes its chances, and may not have suffered as much attrition thus far as claimed.

It’s been interesting to observe that Iran has not availed itself of as much help from Russia as the Russians were willing to offer. This may have been nothing more than the usual susceptibility to Clown World’s temptations and promises, or it might be more indicative of an unwillingness to play the junior partner. It’s also possible that Iran prefers to rely upon China as its primary defense partner, especially in light of the new rail link shipping Iranian oil there.

Regardless, it’s now clear that as long as Team Netanyahu and the other fanatics are in charge of Israel, Israeli success will never lead to peace of any kind. And at this point, it would appear to be preemptive self-defense if Turkey and Pakistan were to enter the war against Israel, given the stated imperialist objectives of the current Israeli regime. And the decades-long accusations about Iran’s expansionary inclinations and general insanity are starting to look more and more like emotional projection by the Israelis.

If President Trump does attack Iran, it will be the biggest mistake of his life and he will lose the greater part of his support even before he loses the war. He will certainly lose mine. Remember, there are no guarantees that the US+Israel can defeat Iran alone. And it is all but certain that the two “greatest allies” cannot defeat a broad alliance of Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Russia, and China.

There are far too many possibilities to make any substantive predictions or attempt to estimate probabilities, but I will say that if the US wages war on Iran and Iran’s prospective allies follow suit, the probabilities would favor an eventual military defeat, and among the possibilities would include a) the complete destruction of Israel and b) the collapse of the USA as a singular political entity.

If I were Trump, I would follow George Bush the Younger’s example, declare Mission Accomplished regardless of the realities of the situation, and allow the Israel-Iran conflict to gradually return to its previous low-simmering hostilities. The fact that no ground invasion of either side is currently possible renders that the optimal outcome under the current circumstances.

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