Tag: Middle East

Clown World Declares a Winner

Foreign Affairs declares Türkiye and Erdogan to be the winners of the sudden Syrian collapse:

In most capitals across the Middle East, the news of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s fall sparked immense anxiety. Ankara is not one of them. Rather than worrying about Syria’s prospects after more than a decade of conflict, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sees opportunity in a post-Assad future. His optimism is well founded: out of all the region’s major players, Ankara has the strongest channels of communication and history of working with the Islamist group now in charge in Damascus, positioning it to reap the benefits of the Assad regime’s demise.

Chief among the rebel forces that ended Assad’s rule on Sunday is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a Sunni Muslim group that was previously affiliated with al Qaeda and is designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States, and the United Nations. Despite those designations, Turkey has provided indirect assistance to HTS. The Turkish military presence in the northwestern Syrian town of Idlib largely shielded the group from attacks by Syrian government forces, allowing it to run the province undisturbed for years. Turkey managed the flow of international aid into HTS-run areas, which increased the group’s legitimacy among locals. Trade across the Turkish border has provided HTS economic support, too.

All this has given Turkey influence over HTS. In October, Erdogan quashed plans for a rebel offensive in Aleppo; when rebel forces launched their campaign late last month, they likely did so with Erdogan’s approval. For years, Assad had been dragging his feet as Erdogan sought to mend ties with Damascus and repatriate the millions of Syrian refugees whose presence in Turkey undermined support for his ruling party. With Assad’s regional allies weakened by the Israeli campaign in Gaza and Lebanon, and Russia distracted in Ukraine, Erdogan saw an opportunity to force the Syrian leader to the table.

The rebels’ whirlwind success came as a surprise. Now, Assad is out of the picture altogether, and Erdogan is getting ready to cash in on his years-long investment in the Syrian opposition. Iran and Russia—Turkey’s main rivals in Syria—are chastened; a friendly government could soon be set up in Damascus, ready to welcome back refugees; and Assad’s departure could even open a window for remaining U.S. troops to leave, fulfilling a long-sought goal of Ankara’s. If it can avoid the potential dangers ahead, Turkey could end up a clear winner in Syria’s civil war.

Obviously Israel is one of the immediate winners; the Lebensraum advocates are already grabbing Syrian territory in the name of “self-defense”. But I’m not certain that convincing the rest of the world that any accommodation with the USA is impossible is likely to benefit the Netanhayu regime in the intermediate term.

Also, at some point, the Turkish desire for an Ottoman revival and Israeli dreams of a Greater Israeli Empire are bound to collide. And the numbers would appear to favor the Turks.

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The Liberal World Order is Over

Viktor Orban is correct, although ironically, it’s the fall of Syria, not Ukraine, that marks the end of the so-called Neo-Liberal Rules-Based World Order:

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has claimed that his country’s refusal to conform to liberal ideology will yield considerable benefits in the future.

“The liberal world order is over,” he declared during a speech in Budapest on Tuesday. The conservative nationalist politician has been in power since 2010, winning successive elections on a platform of defying what he considers to be authoritarian rule by Brussels.

EU leaders have accused Orban of undermining democracy in Hungary and harming the economic bloc’s solidarity on the Ukraine conflict. He has argued that Brussels’ policies have been disastrous for EU member states.

“As the changes come, only those nations can be winners that can bring the most out of themselves,” Orban told a gathering of university students, as quoted by his office. “Those who assimilate, fall into line, are unable to show their own values or discover the strength inherent in their national character will soon become irrelevant.” 

The rapacity with which Israel and Turkey are seizing Syrian territory, and the shamelessness with which the USA refuses to condemn their actions demonstrates that even those countries which are favored by Clown World can’t be bothered to maintain the pretense of what previously passed for “international law” any longer.

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Why Russia Quit on Syria

Andrei Martyanov’s citation of a Russian journalist helps explain why the Russians finally stopped protecting the Assad regime in Syria:

I do not feel sorry for the Syrian authorities. I remember too well how, back in 2012, we, Russian journalists, were “squeezed” at border control, with all our luggage turned inside out, and our cameras and photo cameras confiscated. Then they hounded us around the offices of various ministries, putting us through an unsolvable puzzle of obtaining various papers and permits. And Western reporters were practically carried around in their arms, trying to demonstrate their liberal views against the backdrop of the uprising in Daraa. These are not my personal grievances. This, among other things, was an expression of their attitude towards my country. Condescending, with rolled eyes and a disdainfully raised upper lip. Then we saved Syria in 2013, if anyone doesn’t remember. Obama was going to cover it with carpet bombing after the chemical provocation in Eastern Ghouta. And thanks to the efforts of Russian diplomacy, the catastrophe was averted. Postponed, as it turns out now. In 2015, we came to Assad’s aid again when the terrorists were five kilometers from the center of Damascus. And as best we could, we patched up this patchwork quilt, consisting of various religious, social, forbidden and not so forbidden pieces, between which contradictions grew.

Now Israel and Turkey will divide up whatever parts of the country ISIS-HTS are not allowed to keep. It appears the US military is already bombing their jihadist proxy army; one wonders how it is going to respond to the Turkish invasion of Kurdistan.

I would also keep an eye out for similarly sudden events in Ukraine; Martyanov and others believe Russia dropping its support for the Assad regime was traded for US dropping its support for the Kiev regime and that this was not necessarily the win for Clown World that it appears to be.

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The Dragon Stirs

If the events in the Middle East cause China to begin intervening with its military on behalf of its friends and allies, that is seriously going to alter the geopolitical math in that region.

China is “deeply concerned” about developments in Syria, where jihadist militants launched a surprise offensive last week, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on Monday. As Damascus’ “friend,” Beijing is prepared to take steps to prevent a further deterioration of the situation, he said.  

The Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS) terrorist group, formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, and allied militias launched a large-scale attack on government-controlled territory in northern Syria last Wednesday. The militants took over a number of towns and villages in the Aleppo, Idlib and Hama provinces.   

Syrian government forces, backed by Russian fighter jets, launched a counteroffensive on Thursday and successfully liberated several settlements over the weekend, reportedly eliminating hundreds of militants and thwarting their advance into central Syria. However, dozens of Syrian army service members were lost amid the heavy fighting, the Syrian General Command said in an earlier statement.  

“China is deeply concerned over the situation in northwestern Syria, and supports its effort to uphold national security and stability,” Lin told a press briefing on Monday. “As Syria’s friend, China is willing to make an active effort to avoid further deterioration of the situation in Syria,” the official said.   

China has the manpower to swamp every other military; the Red Army is an order of magnitude larger than anything currently in seen in the Ukrainian front, which is itself two orders of magnitude larger than the conflict in the Middle East.

We appear to be rapidly approaching hitherto-unimaginable levels of Fuck Around and Find Out.

UPDATE: Speaking of FAFO, China is also ready for the trade war too.

China announced Tuesday it is banning exports to the United States of gallium, germanium, antimony and other key high-tech materials with potential military applications, as a general principle, lashing back at U.S. limits on semiconductor-related exports… China is the biggest global source of gallium and germanium, which are produced in small amounts but are needed to make computer chips for mobile phones, cars and other products, as well as solar panels and military technology.

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But… But… International Law!

No doubt all the groups in the USA and Europe that are always nattering on about how one thing or another is necessary and supersedes national sovereignty because of international law will do their part and demand Benjamin Netanyahu turn himself in to face justice for his alleged crimes against international law, right?

The International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague announced on Thursday that it has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity linked to the Gaza conflict. Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif has also been named in a warrant for similar charges.

The court accuses Netanyahu and Gallant of using starvation as a method of warfare, alleging they deliberately deprived Gaza’s civilian population of essential supplies, including food, water, and medicine. Prosecutors claim there was “no obvious military necessity” for such actions, which amount to violations of international law.

Both Israeli politicians could face arrest if they travel to any of the 123 countries that are signatories to the ICC’s Rome Statute.

International law is, of course, a nullity. It’s pseudo-dialectic at best; one might as reasonably appeal to the intersolar law of the Federated Planets. Even so, it’s long past time for Israel’s leaders to recognize that neither the Holocaust nor the October 7th attacks are some sort of historical get-out-of-jail-free card. Especially when they’re actively engaged in what very much looks like ethnic cleansing.

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Ethnic Cleansing and Annexation

First Gaza, now the West Bank. Seymour Hersh reports that Israel is going to attempt to annex the West Bank before President Trump takes office in January:

Israel, fortified by bombs and funding from the Biden administration, is escalating the forced evacuation of hundreds of thousands from the north of Gaza to the south, amid fierce bombing and the deprivation of food and water for those who stay behind. This is continuing amid marches and other demonstrations sponsored by the religious right in Israel whose leadership also is calling for north Gaza to be turned over to Israeli settlers. What was a worrisome rumor in Gaza more and more seems like a reality.

Control over all of Gaza and the West Bank is the core demand of the religious right in Israel that now dominates the government. I was told this week by a well-informed Washington official that the Israeli leadership will formally annex the West Bank in the very near future—perhaps in two weeks—in the hope that the decisive step will end, once and for all, any talk of a two-state solution and will convince some in the skeptical Arab world to reconsider financing the planned reconstruction of Gaza.

It’s fascinating to see how many of the parties that have been aggressive over the last three years are getting even more aggressive as the clock runs out on Clown World. I don’t see this working out as smoothly as the Netanyahu regime might be hoping, assuming that the report is real and not just a trial balloon.

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The Turks Cut Ties

The Turkish government has given up on diplomacy:

Turkey has severed all ties with Israel, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on Wednesday. Erdogan made the comments to journalists aboard his plane following visits to Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan.

“The government of the Republic of Turkey, under the leadership of Tayyip Erdogan, will not continue or develop relations with Israel,” Erdogan said. “[Our ruling coalition] is resolute in its decision to cut ties with Israel, and we will maintain this stance in the future as well. We, as the Republic of Turkey and its government, have currently severed all relations with Israel.”

The Gazacaust was clearly a step too far for many nations around the world to accept. While there are still a fair number of Boomers in the USA who cling to the “plucky little Israel” rhetoric, the rest of the world has been aghast by the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians. Fair or not, in the binary thinking of world opinion, they are the bad guys now. Because there are acts that no provocation, rationalization, or justification will suffice to explain away.

Especially when all you’ve got to offer is a green flag.

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Pseudo-Escalation

From the Jerusalem Post:

  • The attack occurred in three major waves, with the second and third waves targeting Iranian drone and missile production sites, hitting over 20 targets.
  • Over 100 planes were involved in the 2000 k.m. attack, including the cutting-edge F-35, according to Walla.
  • The IDF confirmed the operation was over and that all mission goals had been achieved, with all planes returning safely home.
  • Iranian officials and media have been denying that Israeli airstrikes took place, saying explosions were a result of Iranian air defense; an Israeli official strenuously denied this to Ynet, saying, “This is a lie. Total failure – zero interceptions.”

No one tells the truth in wartime. But sending 100 planes more than 2,000 kilometers is an impressive technical feat, even though it tends to imply US involvement in refueling the planes; there are rumors that 10 US tanker aircraft were involved in supporting the strike.

What we can conclude from what little we have been told is that either a) Iran’s air defenses are less effective than Ukraine’s or b) Iran was not contesting the strikes. Given that there is a non-zero chance that at least one of the planes might have crashed without any enemy action at all, the fact that there were zero interceptions reported, zero planes shot down reported, and minimal casualties on both sides tends to suggest that this was more war kabuki meant to let Israel keep its word without actually escalating the situation.

For one reason or another, neither Israel nor Iran appear inclined to genuinely put the other’s genuine military capabilities to the test. It’s really remarkable that when no aircraft on either side dares show itself within 100 miles of the battlefield in Ukraine, that 100 Israeli warplanes should be able to fly 2,000 kilometers into Iranian airspace unmolested.

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Israel-Iran Round 3

The IDF is now bombing Iran:

Explosions have been heard across Tehran as IDF forces announce they have launched retaliatory strikes in the region. The Israeli military has said it is conducting ‘precise strikes’ on military targets in Iran in response to what it called ‘the continuous attacks from the regime in Iran against Israel’. There have been reports of at least five explosions that have rocked the city of Tehran, as well as loud blasts heard in the Damascus countryside and central region.

Do Iran’s air defense systems not work very well or are they holding them in reserve? That’s just one of many questions that spring to mind.

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The Leak was Real

Apparently Israel was genuinely observed making preparations to attack Iran on October 15th and 16th, but appears to have cancelled the attack for reasons that remain unknown, but are presumably related to the “earthquake” that was observed earlier this month.

The US has launched an investigation after highly classified intelligence reports about Israel’s preparations for possible strikes on Iran were leaked online, CNN reported on Saturday, citing three people familiar with the matter. The apparent security breach occurred amid an intense standoff between Iran and Israel – which has vowed to respond to a barrage of missiles fired by Tehran earlier this month.

On Friday, two documents were posted to the anonymous Telegram channel Middle East Spectator, which covers events in the region and is critical of Israel.

The first of the files, apparently prepared by the Pentagon’s National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, says the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) “continued key munitions preparations and covert UAV activity on October 16 almost certainly for a strike on Iran.”

The second document contains a detailed report about a “large-force employment exercise” conducted by the Israeli Air Force on October 15-16.

An unnamed US official confirmed the authenticity of the documents to CNN, describing the leak as “deeply concerning.” The official told the network that the ongoing probe is aimed at determining who had access to the top secret files that eventually made their way to social media.

The plan reportedly involved a combination of ballistic missiles and air-to-surface missiles, although considerably fewer than were involved in the Iranian attack on Israel. Which, of course, tends to raise suspicions that some of them may have been armed with nuclear warheads, and may explain why the US intelligence source decided to try to stop the attack by leaking news of it.

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