Tag: Middle East

I can’t believe they’re going to try to pull this off again. It should be educational to see how many people fall for it:

Donald Trump is on the verge of securing a sweeping peace deal with Iran that would lift US sanctions and unlock billions in frozen assets for Tehran. A one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding is being negotiated between senior Iranian officials and Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The White House believes the memo could finalize a framework to end the war within 48 hours.

If signed, the memo would formally end the war and open a 30-day window for both countries to negotiate a larger agreement covering the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of all US sanctions on Iran, and new limits on its nuclear program.

The deal calls for Iran to halt all uranium enrichment for 12 to 15 years with automatic extensions if Tehran violates the terms.

Another key provision would have the regime remove its highly enriched uranium stockpile from the country though the memo does not specify a destination.

Trump has been at pains to avoid anything resembling the 2015 Obama deal he spent years trashing as the ‘worst deal ever.’ But the emerging framework echoes it in striking ways: sanctions lifted, frozen billions released, and Iran capped at the same 3.67 percent enrichment level agreed to by Obama.

Oil prices plunged on news of the proposed deal with Brent crude, the global benchmark, falling by more than 10 percent to below $100 per barrel. Stock futures tied to the Dow rose 1.1 percent, S&P 500 futures surged 0.9 percent, while Nasdaq futures climbed 1.6 percent.

I’m not saying it’s impossible. I’m just saying that if you look at the recent past, the closer the US supposedly is to a peace deal, the sooner it is the attack can be expected to take place. Also, for the record, since people are already trying to revise history and claim that this war the previous war was not fought on behalf of Israel.

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Maybe. Perhaps. You see, it’s a very clever way to declare that the war is over, so the administration doesn’t need to get Congressional approval for this little humanitarian flotilla that just happens to be sailing into the very waters that were being violently disputed for the last few months.

TAMPA, Fla. — U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will begin supporting Project Freedom, May 4, to restore freedom of navigation for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The mission, directed by the President, will support merchant vessels seeking to freely transit through the essential international trade corridor. A quarter of the world’s oil trade at sea and significant volumes of fuel and fertilizer products are transported through the strait.

“Our support for this defensive mission is essential to regional security and the global economy as we also maintain the naval blockade,” said Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM commander.

Last week, the U.S. Department of State announced a new initiative, in partnership with the Department of War, to enhance coordination and information sharing among international partners in support of maritime security in the strait. The Maritime Freedom Construct aims to combine diplomatic action with military coordination, which will be critical during Project Freedom.

U.S. military support to Project Freedom will include guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members.

So clever… this is why constitutions and laws are effectively pointless over time. At the end of the day, it is the quality of the decisionmakers that are the sole brake on government action.

Larry Johnson assumes it’s just bait. Perhaps the fourth time will prove the charm? Probably not.

The most likely first move will be an aerial assault on Iranian positions in and around Qeshm Island using US aircraft currently based at Al Dhafra Air Base, just south of Abu Dhabi. It would not surprise me to learn that the US has coordinated with the owners of one of the tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf to make a deliberate run to breach the Strait at a pre-coordinated time. The US will have its air assets aloft ready to attack any Iranian small boat effort to stop the tanker. That will kick off a new phase in the war with Iran that, notwithstanding Trump’s claim the war has ended, will ignite a new round of air strikes and missile attacks by both sides.

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• Israeli TV Channel 12 is reporting tonight that: “Israel is preparing to officially announce the collapse of negotiations with Iran.”
• The US has delivered 6,500 tons of munitions and equipment to Israel within 24 hours, West Jerusalem has said. The announcement coincided with media reports claiming that the head of US Central Command, Brad Cooper, has briefed US President Donald Trump on a plan for the potential renewal of military action against Iran in a bid to pressure it to consent to a more favorable peace deal.

Considering that Israel hasn’t been able to do much more than fight Iran to a stalemate with the active assistance of the US military and 115,600 tons of military equipment via 403 airlifts and 10 sealifts since the US-Israeli attack on Iran began on February 28, I fail to see what another 6,500 tons of munitions are expected to accomplish. Especially if those 6,500 tons don’t include any missile interceptors.

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It appears the Epstein Alliance has finished resupplying and reloading and is going to take its fourth crack at Iran since last summer. It will be interesting to discover which side has made more profitable use of the latest ceasefire.

The Trump administration is setting the stage to renew its attack on Iran. White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said on Friday that the “Iranians reached out” and requested an “in-person meeting,” so President Trump “dispatched Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to go hear what they have to say.” This is a complete fabrication.

Iran wasted no time in destroying that claim. Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Ismael Baqaei, confirmed in a post on X late on the 24th that NO meeting — I repeat, NO meeting — is planned with US officials. Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi is in Islamabad to meet with high-level Pakistani officials in order to give them a written document with Iran’s views on recent developments, which will be delivered to Witkoff and Kushner.

I think that Trump is trying to create a narrative to justify renewing the US and Israeli attack on Iran. He is sending his Jewish emissaries to Islamabad ostensibly to meet with Iranian negotiators only to discover that Iran allegedly bailed out. Trump will claim this is an act of bad faith and is going to punish Iran accordingly.

If the following posts on Telegram are true, then the war will be back in its full fury by Sunday night:

• China urges its citizens to leave Iran as soon as possible – Chinese Embassy in Tehran
• India urges its citizens to leave Iran.

It also appears that Trump gave Bibi permission to trash the ceasefire with Hezbollah, according to another recent Telegram post: The Israeli Air Force resumed strikes on southern Lebanon, a moratorium on which was part of the ceasefire between the US and Iran.

I see absolutely no likelihood that the fourth round of attacks will be any more successful than the previous three rounds. And I am half-convinced that the main reason the Iranians haven’t seriously tried to sink the US carriers is because they wanted to get as many of them in the kill zone as possible before they target them.

The missile-attrition angle is objectively part of Iran’s strategic logic, whether Iran planned the current concentration or merely benefits from it. The cost-exchange ratio is brutal: Iranian ballistic missiles at ~$100K–$1M per unit against SM-3 Block IIA interceptors at ~$27M, with US production rates for the high-end interceptors in the low dozens per year. THAAD and SM-6 stocks have been drawn down hard across the 2024 Houthi engagements, the 2025 Twelve-Day War, and now six weeks of sustained interception. The US cannot replenish at engagement tempo. Every additional carrier group in theater is another defensive perimeter consuming from the same finite magazine, which inverts the usual logic of concentration — more carriers means each individual carrier’s defensive budget shrinks, not grows.

Hence the parallel to the Sicilian Expedition.

Athens projected decisive naval power into confined waters far from home. The initial campaign achieved tactical effects without strategic decision. Nicias’s letter warned that the fleet was degrading and Athens should either withdraw or massively reinforce — Athens chose reinforcement. Syracuse, backed by a major-power ally (Sparta, via Gylippus), had turned the Great Harbor into a kill box by the time Demosthenes arrived. The concentration created by reinforcement was precisely what made the trap work. The hegemon was effectively broken by one engagement in waters it could not leave gracefully.

Current situation: six-week campaign destroyed Iranian nuclear and leadership targets without producing strategic capitulation. Hormuz closed. Ford already past normal deployment length per CNN. Decision to reinforce with third carrier rather than withdraw. Russia and China providing ISR (satellite kill-chain support against mobile naval targets is the classic gap in Iran’s capabilities, and closing that gap is exactly what a major-power ally would provide). Hormuz is the Great Harbor.

Iranian strategic writing, drawing on both Islamic precedent and Sun Tzu-adjacent thinking via Chinese military exchange, explicitly privileges sabr and drawing the adversary onto defender-favorable terrain. Accepting the ceasefire while continuing Hormuz harassment fits patient-ambusher doctrine cleanly: conserve offensive munitions, probe defenses, keep the kill chain warm, let the hegemon commit further.

What would falsify it: Iran escalating to maximalist Hormuz action before the third carrier is fully in position, i.e. before the bait is fully set. What would confirm it: a period of continued attritional pressure — commercial shipping incidents, minelaying indicators, drone-boat probes — while the high-end anti-ship inventory (submarines, ASBM regiments, smart mines) remains conspicuously unused until the US force posture maximally exposes it.

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The US military has exhausted itself trying to defend Israel from Iran:

The U.S. has burned through so many munitions in Iran that some administration officials increasingly assess that America couldn’t fully execute contingency plans to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion if it occurred in the near term, U.S. officials said.

The U.S. has fired more than 1,000 long-range Tomahawk missiles since the war with Iran began on Feb. 28, as well as 1,500 to 2,000 critical air-defense missiles, including Thaad, Patriot and Standard Missile interceptors, according to U.S. officials who declined to give exact figures.

Wholly replacing those stockpiles could take up to six years, officials said, kicking off discussions in the administration about adjusting operational plans in preparation for any potential presidential order for the military to defend Taiwan.

And now, with three carrier groups in the Middle East, the US military appears to be beautifully set up for a potential Syracuse Expedition. While three carrier groups and more than 200 warplanes pack a serious offensive punch, they don’t necessarily have enough ability to defend themselves from a serious attempt at sinking them. The destruction of the dozens of US bases in the reason should suffice to demonstrate the Iranian capabilities in that regard.

I was wondering why the Iranians didn’t make any serious and concerted attempts on the one carrier that was in range during the first month of the war. It may be because the Iranian strategists actually wanted to encourage more US forces to enter the region, as that’s the only place they can be successfully attacked and potentially destroyed.

Regardless, what we’ve witnessed here is confirmation of the end of the sole global superpower era.

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The White House is blustering again after Iran refuses to fall for the “let’s negotiate” trick for the third time:

JD Vance remains at the White House as uncertainty surrounds whether he will depart for Pakistan, with Iran peace talks hanging in the balance less than 24 hours before the ceasefire expires.

Donald Trump claims he’s poised to resume bombing if Tehran refuses to come to the table, he told CNBC Tuesday morning.

Trump earlier this month threatened military action against Iran as part of his ultimatum over the Strait of Hormuz, but he then backed off and agreed to a two-week ceasefire instead.

Tehran has not made it clear whether their representatives will attend a peace summit in Islamabad, Pakistan before the ceasefire expires at 8pm ET Wednesday.

Senior White House officials plan to hold meetings today alongside the Vice President to determine a path forward, according to CNN.

Trump had previously said Vance was expected to depart Washington for Pakistan on Tuesday morning. Those plans were scrapped at the last minute as uncertainty grew over whether Iran would participate.

During his CNBC interview, the President said he ‘expects to be bombing Iran’ if talks fail by tomorrow’s deadline, adding ‘the military is raring to go.’

Trump added that he does not want to extend the ceasefire despite confusion over Tehran’s participation.

What confusion? Tehran said they there is no reason to negotiate. Neither the US nor Israel has fully complied with the ceasefire. The US probably has one, at most two big air offensives left and then it will be out of stand-off offensive missiles as well as defensive ones.

A 3GW military is not going to win a 5GW war.

UPDATE: And it’s TACO time again.

Donald Trump has waivered on his threat to bomb Iran by extending the US ceasefire, claiming the regime’s leadership is ‘seriously fractured.’ The decision is Trump’s fourth delay since the initial truce was announced on March 23. The President did not provide an exact deadline for the latest extension.

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Another day, another Middle East ceasefire:

President Donald Trump announced a ten–day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon on Thursday, describing the truce as an initial step toward a permanent end to hostilities between the two nations. He also mentioned an invitation he sent to the prime minister of Israel and the Lebanese president for further talks at the White House.

The announcement, made via Trump’s Truth Social platform, follows high–level discussions held in Washington earlier this week. The ceasefire is scheduled to take effect today at 5pm EST.

The President stated that the agreement was reached following personal conversations with the Israeli and Lebanese leaders, noting that representatives from both countries met in Washington on Tuesday, marking the first such diplomatic encounter in 34 years.

‘I just had excellent conversations with the highly respected President Joseph Aoun, of Lebanon, and Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, of Israel,’ Trump wrote. ‘These two leaders have agreed that in order to achieve peace between their countries, they will formally begin a ten-day ceasefire at 5pm EST.’

This might be helpful in attempting to persuade Israel not to try to expand into Lebanese territory. I don’t see how it’s going to slow down Hezbollah at all, though, especially if they’re not technically part of the ceasefire.

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Professor Seyed Mohammad Marandi of the University of Tehran describes the recent talks in Pakistan from the Iranian perspective:

Marandi correctly portrayed the negotiations as a US concession forced by Iran’s battlefield successes during the recent conflict (including missile, drone, and defensive capabilities demonstrated over roughly 40 days of war against the “Trump-Netanyahu regimes”). He argued that Iran entered the talks from a position of strength—not weakness or desperation—and used “armed diplomacy” to document positions rather than out of trust in American promises.

He emphasized that Iran did not waiver from its key preconditions for the talks, which included:

• A comprehensive ceasefire (particularly involving Lebanon and Gaza).
• US fulfillment of prior commitments and respect for Iranian security/assets.
• No negotiations under pressure or sanctions.

Marandi repeatedly stressed that progress depends entirely on the US abiding by its obligations. Without concrete action, “there is no reason for us to continue negotiating.” He expressed no fear of returning to war, stating Iran is fully prepared for any scenario, including escalation, and has no illusions about the hostile nature of the Trump administration.

The most surprising revelation from Professor Marandi was that Iran was prepared for a second day of negotiations but learned belatedly that the US decided, without informing the Iranian delegation, to end the talks and leave. Who does such a thing? It suggests to me that JD Vance was nothing more than an errand boy and that he was ordered by Susie Wiles to stop talking to Iran and leave, using so-called intransigence of Iran over the nuclear issue as an excuse.

I think this is much closer to the truth than what we’ve been told in the Western media, which doesn’t even make sense. And using talks to buy time when they’re being beaten is standard Clown World procedure, to the point that I have absolutely no idea why countries like Iran or Russia ever accept the invitations to negotiation.

China appears to understand the situation rather better, as it simply ignores US and EU diplomacy; not even bothering to have high-level officials greet or meet with the head of the EU when she showed up in Beijing.

It makes no sense to reach agreements with the agreement-incapable. Doing so just to impress the spectators by being able to point out, again, that water is still wet is both performative and pointless.

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