Tag: Middle East

Stronger than ever, ever before.

KMFDM is, a drug against war.

Apparently the same is not true of Israel, at least, not according to the Iranian military.

On Saturday, Iran’s military declared itself stronger than at the start of the war, while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had lifted its self-imposed 2,000 km limit on missile range. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned last week that renewed US-Israeli attacks would trigger an immediate response without geographical restrictions.

Despite the customary Middle East posturing, I tend to find this assertion credible, since both Iran and Russia have observably improved their missile targeting capabilities since the beginning of 2026. Iran has survived not only a joint US-Israeli decapitation strike, but driven the USA out of its 18 bases in the Gulf, and has had more than enough time to replenish its missile supplies as well as improve its targeting with the help of both China and Russia.

Israel and the USA can thump the table as much as they like, but the observable fact of the matter is that they are both weaker, and Iran is stronger, than when the war began. And therefore, the sooner that Israel and the USA get off the war train, the more likely it is that they will survive more or less intact.

Keep in mind that there are no good guys here. None whatsoever. And pointing out the obvious and undeniable is not cheerleading for anyone. It is simply paying attention to reality.

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According to Tucker Carlson, this is the plan that the junior Senator from Connecticut described as “insane”.

Under pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the Trump administration may be within days of launching a nuclear strike on Iran. The target would be Pickax Mountain in central Iran, where Israeli intelligence claims the Iranian government has restarted its nuclear enrichment program. No conventional weapon in the American arsenal can penetrate 300 feet of solid granite to destroy the tunnels where enrichment is supposedly taking place. The only military option is a nuclear strike. Netanyahu has been pushing hard for one. “Bibi calls Trump about it every day,” says an informed observer.

Netanyahu is cornered and desperate. After last week’s election results, he can’t form a government unless Trump intervenes directly in Israeli politics and brokers a deal with other parties that gives Netanyahu 61 seats in the Knesset. Otherwise, he is out as prime minister and on his way to ignominy, investigations and possibly jail. Netanyahu must stay close to Trump. He needs this war.

To that end, he’s applied maximum pressure to his closest allies in the administration, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper. Both oppose a negotiated settlement to the war they’ve so grievously mismanaged; both are pushing to restart major combat operations. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA director John Ratcliffe are also following Netanyahu’s lead, as are leaders of the Democratic Party. In a recent meeting on the subject, former president Barack Obama said he opposes the current Iran peace deal being drafted in Doha.

The rest of America’s longtime allies in the Middle East are terrified by the prospect of more war. On September 27th, Netanyahu flew secretly to Abu Dhabi to enlist the UAE in his lobbying effort for a final attack on Iran. The Emiratis refused. After eight months of conflict, Gulf economies are teetering. So are global energy and fertilizer markets. They won’t recover soon. Globally, there are a total of about 850 supertankers used to transport oil from producers to the rest of the world. In October alone, 11 of them were badly damaged in Hormuz. At this pace, a global depression is imminent. A nuclear strike would radically accelerate the destruction. Fallout from a ground explosion at Pickax Mountain would contaminate the Persian Gulf, poisoning the water supply for 100 million people.

And those are just some of the immediate consequences for the region. The rest of the world is every bit as exposed. No country other than the United States has ever used a nuclear weapon in war. Some would like to. An American nuclear attack on Iran would set a new precedent. The Russians have already told at least two other governments that an American nuclear strike on Iran would free them to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Pakistan and India would be tempted to do the same against each other, as would North Korea against Seoul. After the first nuclear strike, World War Three is inevitable. That war would be short and final.

We’ve been sleepwalking toward this moment for months. Since February, the administration has quietly rewritten America’s nuclear doctrine to make first use of so-called “battlefield nukes” easier and therefore more likely. No one in Washington in either party seems bothered by this. Now we’re on the brink of it.

Close observers say Trump is likely to decide by next weekend whether or not to use nuclear weapons. That would be November 7, six days from now. To his credit, he’s hesitating. At the moment, Trump is listening to his vice president, JD Vance, and to his envoy and friend Steve Witkoff, both of whom argue a deal with Iran can be made.

They’re right, though it won’t be simple. The Iranians are famously frustrating to negotiate with under any circumstances, and elements of that government have become more radical since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his family were killed in February. After decades of isolation, even relatively moderate Iranian leaders seem confused by how decisions are made in the West. (There is a widespread belief in Tehran, for example, that the United States government controls Israel.) But overall, people who have spoken to decision-makers in Iran say there is consensus there that more war is bad for everyone and a deal is worth making.

One group that hasn’t been consulted so far is the global population — the hundreds of millions of people who will be killed along with their children if Trump is pushed by Netanyahu into launching a nuclear strike next week. Now would be the time for them to speak up.

The last thing Americans need or want is more war for Israel. But the fake Trump is an AIPAC construct, so the real question is how far American Jews are willing to risk further abusing and misusing their influence over the US military, because they are very well aware of the potential costs of the fallout for them when – not if – things go wrong.

And considering how far wrong everything has already gone for Israel and its supporters this year, the rational thing to do would be avoiding any further war. The problem is that there are no shortage of war hawks in Israel who actually think that the US retreating from the Middle East will be to the advantage of Greater Israel, and that the situation is a situation where heads Iran loses, tails the US loses, and both results are to Israel’s advantage.

Which, to be honest, doesn’t appear very likely, and many of the US military leaders clearly know it.

US President Donald Trump may scapegoat his defense and military chiefs for the state of the Iran war, according to a Sunday report, even as he considers resuming attacks on the country following the US midterm elections on Tuesday.

Trump reportedly clashed with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over that question in a phone call over the weekend, the latest in a series of disagreements they have had about whether to attack. The premier — who is in a precarious position after losing his majority in the Knesset in Tuesday’s election — was said to have pushed for a return to strikes, while Trump favors giving more time to negotiations.

The war is deeply unpopular in the United States, and with no resolution to the conflict in sight, is expected to hurt Trump’s Republican Party in Tuesday’s votes for the US Congress. Oil prices have risen as Iran continues to obstruct shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

Against that backdrop, according to The Atlantic magazine, Trump is looking for someone to blame for the course of the war and is speaking with advisers about Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Gen. Dan Caine, chair of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. Both have been leading advocates of the war. Trump’s anger has reportedly grown since his advisers mistakenly assured him ahead of the war’s start in late February that it would be over long before the midterms.

So why would you listen again to those who were wrong the last three times. Especially in light of what some of the pollsters are observing: “For the first time in my lifetime, the polling is that Americans want AIPAC out and they don’t want to send any more money to Israel.”

UPDATE: Not too much doubt about where the Russians and the Chinese stand on more US military action in the Middle East. It is perhaps worth noting that the Russian Defense Minister happens to be visiting China now.

• RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS SIGNALS OF PLANNED NEW MILITARY ACTION AGAINST IRAN ARE CAUSING EXTREME CONCERN
• Director Wang Yi has elaborated on China’s position on the situation in the Middle East and the Gulf region. China believes that military means are not the solution. They will only lead to escalation that serves no one’s interest. It is hoped that relevant parties will stick to peace, resolve disputes through dialogue and negotiation, and restore peace and tranquility in the Middle East and the Gulf region at an early date. – Mao Ning, Ministry of Foreign Affairs

UPDATE: It could be a coincidence, but the U.S. Senator who issued the warning about the “insane plan” suffered what is being reported as a stroke the next day.

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A U.S. Senator from Connecticut says that “Trump” is going to restart the Iran war after the mid-terms:

Trump is reportedly planning to restart war with Iran after the election. Some of us have been briefed on the war plan. And while I cannot disclose any details, I can say this: the plan is insane. It will not achieve objectives and will set off a new cycle of escalation.

Well, this may explain why so many governments around the world have been warning their citizens to stock up on supplies. If you don’t already, I’d be sure to have two week’s worth of water and food on hand.

The one thing about insanity is that you can’t ever reasonably anticipate its limits. But if whatever lunacy they try is going to effect the supply chain, then it’s going to effect most of us. And based on the first three attempts and the recent firing of the top US military strategist, I have no problem believing that the plan will not achieve its objectives.

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It appears the Gulf States have chosen a side, and it’s not the US-Israeli alliance:

Saudi Arabia’s defense minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman, the brother of the Crown Prince, flew to Tehran. With him came Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir and Turkey’s intelligence chief, Ibrahim Kalin. They sat down with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and senior security official Rezaei, who hosted the talks, for about two hours. The agenda: the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, the Strait of Hormuz, the American blockade of Iran’s ports and a regional non-aggression framework.

Read that list again. Those are the four biggest security problems in the Persian Gulf. The countries that actually live there just met to discuss them. The United States, which has two carrier strike groups, an amphibious ready group and a blockade in the neighborhood, was not in the room. Nobody seems to have missed it.

The three visitors are the signatories of the Makkah Agreement, the mutual-defense treaty that Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed on August 7. Article 2 says an attack on one is an attack on all. It was sold, at least in Washington’s imagination, as a Sunni shield for the Kingdom against Iran and its friends in Yemen.

Eleven weeks later, the entire shield showed up in Tehran to talk about cooperation. Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan says Tehran will “study” the agreement, “and if it is good, we will support it.” The treaty conveniently includes an accession clause allowing new members to join by consensus. My sources tell me the three formally invited Iran to join once the U.S.-Israeli war ends, and that Tehran accepted on that basis. No official readout confirms that yet. But the official readouts did agree to keep talking “among the four,” and Iran has a phrase for what it wants: “endogenous security.” Translation: security for the Gulf, by the Gulf, without the 5th Fleet.

Imagine NATO’s founding members inviting the Soviet Union to join in 1952, and you have some idea how badly this has gone for American strategy.

In fairness to American strategists, none of the people involved in the US strategy for the Middle East for the past 40 years have actually been Americans. What we’re witnessing is the failure of the Greater Israeli strategy of the neocons, which I have to admit, did succeed rather better than I would have ever imagined given how effectively it exploited the non-nation states of the region.

The problem, as always, is that the seeds of ultimate failure are planted with initial success. Fortunately for the USA, it appears to have been more of a Suez moment than a Sicilian one.

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It appears Washington is desperately trying to lock down the Ukraine situation before Israel kicks off the next round of its war against Iran. But whether it can or not, the costs of the next round could prove crippling to numerous parties:

The IMF’s October outlook reads like a casualty report. Kuwait’s economy is forecast to shrink 16.7 percent this year. Qatar’s will shrink 15.6 percent, and Bahrain’s 11.3 percent. The UAE, long sold as the region’s safe haven, is now expected to contract 3.9 percent, a seven-point swing from the IMF’s April forecast. Saudi Arabia is forecast to shrink 3.3 percent. The only Gulf economy still growing is Oman, and that is because its ports sit outside the Strait of Hormuz.

These are not paper losses. Qatar lost two LNG trains at Ras Laffan in March, about 17 percent of its export capacity. QatarEnergy says the repairs will take three to five years and will cost it roughly $20 billion a year in revenue. Saudi Arabia’s escape route around Hormuz, the East-West Pipeline to Yanbu, is crippled. My sources tell me four of its 11 pumping stations are severely damaged and out of service. Riyadh now projects a deficit of 4.9 percent of GDP, is borrowing to cover it, and has frozen non-essential spending.

Miller explains why this is worse than the headline oil price suggests. A damaged plant produces nothing to sell, but the payroll, the debt payments and the repair bills keep coming. A plant that is still standing but cannot get parts in or cargo out is in almost the same position. A $108 barrel of oil is worth nothing if you cannot ship it. And the cash the Gulf states used to invest at home and abroad is vanishing fast. If a government takes in 100 and must spend 70, it has 30 left over. Cut income to 80 and that cushion drops to 10. A 20 percent hit to revenue wipes out two-thirds of the money for everything else.

The Gulf states bought American protection to safeguard exactly this wealth. Instead, as Miller puts it, they have ended up paying for the costs of American strategy. That is a bargain they will not keep making forever.

Iran isn’t going to collapse. To the contrary, Iran is more confident, has more allies, and more weaponry than ever before. And this is precisely how aggressor nations end up defeated. Their leaders keep thinking that one more determined push will somehow miraculously cause the other side to collapse, even as they exhaust their own resources, instead of quitting while they’re still strong. The US military has lost the use of 18 bases already. What does it expect to do if it loses access to bases in Jordan and Israel while the price of oil skyrockets and unrest grows across the West?

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They can’t possibly think it’s going to work this time, can they?

Today, October 14, 2026, the Emir of Qatar addressed his nation and told them:

“War is imminent. We must be prepared for the worst possible scenarios, and everyone, institutions and citizens alike, should take their responsibilities.”

As reported on this website and on the Hal Turner Radio Show, over the past four days, the U.S. sent twenty additional air-refueling tankers from the Continental United States (CONUS) to Europe for subsequent travel to the Middle East. Those 20 air-refueling tankers will joining ~100 others already there. So ~120 air-refueling tankers. They refuel Fighter Jets before and after attack runs. They refuel Bombers before and after bombing runs. So I’ll give you three guesses what’s coming . . . .

Yesterday, as reported on this website, the U.S. Army distributed “Recognition guides” instructing U.S. Forces how to identify Iran ground troops. The story made clear “This is not routine . . . ” Why tell US Troops how to ID Iran ground troops unless US Ground Troops might encounter them????? Give you three guesses what’s coming . . . .

President Netanyahu must be getting really desperate about the mid-terms. The thing is, it’s a lot easier to get people to rally around their own flag rather than someone else’s.

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