Another evolutionary retard publicly demonstrates his retardery to the world. This time it’s a math teacher who would obviously fail every single word problem on a math test.
So I’d like to go into the math of Vox day and Will Duffy. Who am I? I am a math teacher. I am a math teacher in secondary education. Now if we take the reasoning of Will Duffy he says f max that’s the total number of genes fixated over a specific period the result that he gets is in the given time frame we could only have [sighs and gasps] 180 genes mutated and changed.
And what is the time period? That’s t div time that is given. That’s 6300,000 sorry 6,300,000 years of evolution divided by the length of a generation. That’s G len here. The length of a generation for humans is 25 years times 400 generations. So he says it takes 1,400 generations to fix one gene.
Okay. So if we make this calculation times one because D is substituted by one we reach the number 180. Devastating results says Will Duffy, we can only fix and mutate one gene 180 genes over a time period of six million years. If we were to follow this reasoning, it would mean it would mean what? For one gene to mutate and fixate. Sorry, it would have to take 25 * 1,400 is 35,000 years for one gene. And [snorts] the reasoning is you can only mutate and fixate another gene when this time period is over. So we have [snorts] 6 300,000 6,300,000 divided by 80. That would mean 35,000 years for one gene to mutate and fixate.
Now the reasoning is wrong. Why? It would mean that if you have the Marathon of New York with 60,000 participants and an average length of 4 hours per marathon. If you would follow this reasoning, it would take on average 240,000 hours for the marathon to end. That’s 10,000 days. And that means 27 years for all the participants to arrive. Of course, that’s not possible. they run parallel. Well, the same goes with mutation and fixation. So that math is clearly uh wrong.
This guy should be fired from his job immediately. He’s obviously incompetent. The math is not wrong because parallel fixation is clearly and specifically included in the calculation. So are sweeps. So is neutral substitution. So are hitchhikers. So is any and every evolutionary mechanism, with the exception of three minor ones.
First to address his idiotic analogy. What he is attempting to do is add up the cumulative time of all 60,000 runners, which is 240,000 hours, and then claim that it is identical to the amount of time it took to televise the marathon. Because the number that was provided is THE AVERAGE RATE PER FIXATION of all the bacteria in all the viable populations all the time. Once more, we see that an evolutionist doesn’t understand what an “average” is. The 1,400 generations per fixation number is analogically identical to the four hours per runner number.
If he simply looked at the LTEE papers, or the data, or my papers, he would know that is true. For example, in 60,000 generations, the Ara-6 population has 35 fixations. Not in serial. That’s the total number that took place in that population over the 60,000 generations. Which is a rate of 1,715 generations per fixation, which the keenly observant will note is even slower than the average rate, which incorporates multiple populations.
Ericka, this guy, and everyone else to whom they are running to try to “correct the math” are amazingly and astonishingly stupid in their ignorant smugness. It’s obvious that this teacher never read my book or my papers. He’s also never read any of the three major LTEE papers. He’s never looked up the raw data upon which those three papers drew. Because he doesn’t even know what the number he’s trying to “correct” represents.
So for all you lazy, ignorant, and smug cretins who still believe in the mathematically impossible fairy tale of evolution, I will type very, very slowly in the hopes that you can somehow follow the facts:
- The LTEE runs twelve identical populations of bacteria in parallel from the same ancestor. Every single evolutionary mechanism from natural selection, genetic drift, mutation, hitchhiking, epistasis, compensatory mutation, and frequency-dependent selection, to clonal interference operates simultaneously in all 12 populations for 85,000 generations and counting.
- Parallel fixation, the idea that the same beneficial mutation can arise and fix independently in multiple lineages, isn’t just theoretically possible in this setup, it has been directly observed. The LTEE populations have fixed mutations in the same genes, sometimes at the precisely same nucleotide position, in different populations. That’s fixation running parallel in more ways than one.
- The only mechanisms the LTEE doesn’t capture are sexual recombination (bacteria don’t have sex), incomplete lineage sorting (which requires a speciation event), and horizontal gene transfer (the populations are maintained in isolation). Of those three, only recombination could even theoretically speed things up, and the reproductive constraints of sexual organisms more than compensate for it in the opposite direction.
- When we calculated the LTEE’s total average fixation throughput at 1,322 generations per fixation, that number already includes almost every way evolution can theoretically take place, in parallel, running flat out under ideal conditions, and it still falls short of what’s needed by six orders of magnitude. Note that the maximum speed of natural selection running in parallel alone is 4,615 generations per fixation.
Note: It is worth pointing out that there are now six populations that were running faster than the 1,322 gens/fix rate at the 60,000-generation mark that are omitted from everyone’s calculations. By now, there may be seven or eight. This is not because anyone is hiding evidence that favors of the mathematical viability of evolution, in fact, this evidence will almost certainly prove conclusively that there can be no evolution over 120,000 generations of strong selective pressure, because the reason these populations are mutating faster is that all six have developed genomic cancer. If they weren’t bacteria, all six populations would already be dead. Hence my papers addressing punctuated equilibrium.
I’m not sure what is more pathetic, the fact that these “educators” don’t understand the first thing about what they’re “teaching” or the way in which the people who follow them are incapable of seeing their obvious blunders. Even when warned about where they are wrong, they blithely just plow forward in their admitted ignorance.
iando808: Hi Jan, note that Vox Day claims that Parallel fixation is accounted for (or at least justified to be excluded) in his work, whether you want to pursue that or not. His papers, all written using AI, are available on zenodo — lots of overlapping papers, a dispersed argument so harder to digest. He refuses or is incapable to get his work peer reviewed.
DeDzjang: Oh yeah, he rejects parallel fixation on shaky grounds. But I’m not schooled on this subject. I know babies differ in plusminus 60 genes from their parents. This alone shows mutation runs parallel, maybe not in 1 generation, but surely over a span of 1400 generations (=35 000 years). This number shows up in different independent research papers. There can not be two: babies differ from parents AND there is no parallel mutation. It’s one or the other.
iando808: DeDzjang — a welcome humility, unlike Vox Day who arrogantly assumes he knows more than anyone else…
I don’t arrogantly assume I know more than anyone else, I observably do know considerably more about the subject than any of these people who obviously don’t know anything at all about it, by their own admission. When did I ever reject parallel fixation on any grounds whatsoever? All I did was point out, correctly, that it was already included in the calculation. When did I ever reject natural selection, for that matter?
And since a) I don’t have any peers and b) the raw data is available in 500-generation slices, I’m putting together a method to determine what the rate of genuinely serial fixation is just to prevent these morons from being able to claim that a number specifically including parallel fixation is a number that excludes it.
UPDATE: The SERIAL natural selection rate for the LTEE at 60k generations is ~24,500 generations per fixation. I’ll want to dig in a little deeper to be certain of that, but that’s what happens when parallel fixation is excluded. So clearly I didn’t leave it out.
Note that now the evolutionists’ only hope is to argue that human mutations, and absolutely all sexually-reproducing animal mutations, somehow fixate much faster in the wild than mutations that appear in laboratory bacteria being subjected to sustained artificially strong selection pressure reported in the range of s ≈ 0.01. This would be a fascinating trick to see them try to pull off, considering that s = 0.001 is what the scientific literature reports as the mean selection coefficient for beneficial mutations in humans.
UPDATE: This guy is truly special.
i truly believe that’s what most people fail to understand in Motoo Kimura’s math. It is much more profound than evolution deniers will ever understand. I failed to get to know his calculations myself, but am now struck with the profundity of his observations and his formulas. Neutral, negative or positive contributions of genes in the selection process have a huge influence on reproduction and the rate of fixation (call it transfer, maybe). This tiny factor “s” in his formula has a devastating influence on how and why species evolve. And it matches the data from research up to this day. Kimuro died long before we unraveled the genome and still his findings are as relevant as they were in his day. Math has moved on, but is still based on his stochastics. Vox’ 8th grade math is a real step back. Puts us back even before Malthus’ formulas of the nineteenth century. That is so sad.
First, Kimura’s math has absolutely nothing to do with the LTEE. If the guy actually knew Kimura’s math, which he doesn’t, then he would know that 60,000 generations isn’t enough time for a single drift mutation according to Kimura’s own equation for time and neutral mutations. Second, at this point I understand Kimura’s math better than all of the population geneticists, let alone math teachers who don’t even know his calculations, because I have studied his derivations and corrected Franco Chalub’s 2012 work that identified how Kimura’s followers ignored his time calculations and misapplied what is a steady-state identity to time-sensitive applications.
Most of Kimura’s findings are no longer relevant to population genetics or the molecular clock. And I have proved that, both mathematically and empirically. But I doubt Mr. Math Teacher even knows what ancestral DNA is, much less how it falsified Kimura’s theories about genetic drift.
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