The Dragon Stirs

If the events in the Middle East cause China to begin intervening with its military on behalf of its friends and allies, that is seriously going to alter the geopolitical math in that region.

China is “deeply concerned” about developments in Syria, where jihadist militants launched a surprise offensive last week, Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on Monday. As Damascus’ “friend,” Beijing is prepared to take steps to prevent a further deterioration of the situation, he said.  

The Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS) terrorist group, formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra, and allied militias launched a large-scale attack on government-controlled territory in northern Syria last Wednesday. The militants took over a number of towns and villages in the Aleppo, Idlib and Hama provinces.   

Syrian government forces, backed by Russian fighter jets, launched a counteroffensive on Thursday and successfully liberated several settlements over the weekend, reportedly eliminating hundreds of militants and thwarting their advance into central Syria. However, dozens of Syrian army service members were lost amid the heavy fighting, the Syrian General Command said in an earlier statement.  

“China is deeply concerned over the situation in northwestern Syria, and supports its effort to uphold national security and stability,” Lin told a press briefing on Monday. “As Syria’s friend, China is willing to make an active effort to avoid further deterioration of the situation in Syria,” the official said.   

China has the manpower to swamp every other military; the Red Army is an order of magnitude larger than anything currently in seen in the Ukrainian front, which is itself two orders of magnitude larger than the conflict in the Middle East.

We appear to be rapidly approaching hitherto-unimaginable levels of Fuck Around and Find Out.

UPDATE: Speaking of FAFO, China is also ready for the trade war too.

China announced Tuesday it is banning exports to the United States of gallium, germanium, antimony and other key high-tech materials with potential military applications, as a general principle, lashing back at U.S. limits on semiconductor-related exports… China is the biggest global source of gallium and germanium, which are produced in small amounts but are needed to make computer chips for mobile phones, cars and other products, as well as solar panels and military technology.

DISCUSS ON SG


Alan Greenspan on Trial

There are two reasons China’s global primacy is inevitable. First, China remains China, not a subverted, invaded, demoralized shell of a nation. Second, the government refuses to let the financial sector run amok and pillage the rest of its economy:

The former head of a top Chinese bank has received a suspended death sentence for corruption, Xinhua News Agency reported on Tuesday. The verdict comes as part of a widespread anti-corruption crackdown by the authorities in Beijing.

Liu Liange, was sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve for accepting bribes worth an equivalent of nearly $17 million and illegally issuing loans, according to Xinhua. Liu served as chairman of the Bank of China for four years until his resignation in March 2023, several weeks before the authorities revealed that he was facing corruption charges. He was arrested in October of last year. According to Tuesday’s ruling, all of Liu’s personal property will be confiscated, and all his illegal gains must be recovered and turned over to the state treasury.

The two-year reprieve, awarded because the accused had cooperated with authorities and shown remorse, means that the sentence will only be carried out if Liu commits further crimes during the period, Reuters has reported. If reprieved, the 63-year-old will serve a life sentence.

Liu is the latest high-profile figure to be sentenced to death as part of widespread anti-corruption efforts ordered by President Xi Jinping targeting the country’s $60 trillion financial sector. Former deputy central bank governor Fan Yifei was sentenced to death for bribery in October, also with a two-year reprieve. In May, Bai Tianhui, a former executive at one of the country’s largest state-controlled asset management firms, was sentenced to death for accepting bribes worth nearly $152 million.

Can you imagine comparable anti-corruption efforts being carried out in the USA? This is the equivalent of Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke being arrested and sentenced to death. But the problem in the USA is so out of hand that it would probably be far more efficient to ask the Russians to drop a few Oreshnik’s on Wall Street.

DISCUSS ON SG


Asking For Trouble

The US military is deploying missile bases in Japan and the Philippines in support of an anticipated war with China over Taiwan:

The U.S. military will set up temporary bases along Japan’s southwestern Nansei island chain and the Philippines to deploy missile units in the event of a Taiwan contingency, sources familiar with Japan-U.S. relations said Sunday.

The deployment of the missile units will be incorporated in the first joint operation plan for the United States and Japan to cope with a contingency involving Taiwan and China, which regards the self-ruled island as its own, to be formulated in December.

The U.S. Marine Littoral Regiment, which possesses a multiple-launch High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, will be deployed along the island chain stretching from the Japanese prefectures of Kagoshima and Okinawa toward Taiwan, according to the sources.

From an early stage, when a Taiwan contingency becomes highly imminent, temporary bases will be set up on inhabited islands of the island chain, based on U.S. military guidelines for dispatching Marines in small formations to several locations.

The Japan Self-Defense Forces is expected to mainly engage in logistical support for the marine unit, including supplying fuel and ammunition.

Apparently bravado and bluff is the order of the day. They’re not limiting their imperial overstretch to Europe.

DISCUSS ON SG


No Rematch, Please

After seeing its aircraft carrier driven from the Red Sea from Yemen’s land-based missiles, it appears the US Navy has no taste for a rematch any time soon:

Houthi rebels are brandishing increasingly sophisticated weapons, including missiles that “can do things that are just amazing,” the Pentagon’s chief weapons buyer said at an Axios event.

The big picture: The militant group has for a year used drones and missiles to strangle waters off Yemen, disrupting international shipping.

Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment Bill LaPlante on Wednesday said the Houthis “are getting scary.” “I’m an engineer and a physicist, and I’ve been around missiles my whole career,” he said at the Future of Defense summit in Washington, DC. “What I’ve seen of what the Houthis have done in the last six months is something that — I’m just shocked.”

State of play: The group’s forces menace almost every ship passing by — civilian or military — and have even sent some to the seafloor.

Translation: there will be no naval war over Taiwan. If you have to be concerned about Yemeni land-to-sea capabilities, you’re not ready to fight off the coast of China. We’re effectively back in the days of the Age of Sail, when shore batteries trumped battleships.

DISCUSS ON SG


The Expansion of BRICS

BRICS will be growing significantly next month.

The next wave of BRICS expansion will be announced at the group’s annual summit in the Russian city of Kazan in October, Belarusian Foreign Minister Maxim Ryzhenkov has claimed. Speaking on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, Ryzhenkov predicted that BRICS could add at least ten new members, while expressing optimism that his own country’s application for membership will be approved.

“The first wave of enlargement, as we all expect – those who have submitted such applications – will take place at the Kazan summit,” Ryzhenkov told RIA Novosti. Russia is “formulating the list of these countries that will be in the first wave of enlargement,” he added.

As the current holder of the BRICS chairmanship, Russia will host the group’s annual summit in Kazan from October 22 to 24. Earlier this month, Belarusian First Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Lukashevich said his country is in the first pool of BRICS candidates, along with Algeria, Bangladesh, Bahrain, Bolivia, Venezuela, Vietnam, Cuba, Honduras, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Morocco, Nigeria, Palestine, Senegal, and Thailand.

Several other countries, including Türkiye, Zimbabwe, and Burkina Faso, have also shared their intent to join. Founded in 2006 by Russia, China, India, and Brazil, the organization accepted South Africa as a member in 2011. Earlier this year, it expanded to welcome four new member states – Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the UAE. So far, at least 34 countries have expressed interest in joining, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated at a senior BRICS meeting earlier in September.

The three most significant countries in that first set are Vietnam, Indonesia, and Nigeria. Clown World has been working hard to try to separate Vietnam from China, and “the Prussians of Asia”, as Lee Kwan Yew described them, are historically the most aggressive nation in Asia. Indonesia is the largest Muslim country and is closely tied economically to China, and Nigeria is the most populous and most advanced African state. Between them, just those three countries have 150 million more people than the entire European Union.

The inclusion of Palestine is also significant, as while BRICS is not a military alliance, the economic power it wields is already formidable, and a boycott by BRICS would be potentially be more devastating than the US sanctions regime on Russia have been. The biggest news, of course, would be if Türkiye is allowed to jump the queue, especially if it exits NATO in the process.

DISCUSS ON SG


I May Have Been Wrong

About a month ago, in the leadup to the LDP leadership contest, I theorized that if Shigeru Ishida was chosen, it might signify Japan beginning to move away from Clown World.

There are some hints that Japan may be starting to break with Clown World. If Shigeru Ishida succeeds Fumio Kishida as Prime Minister, it would possibly signal a shift toward China.

And while Ishida did manage to win the party leadership, his call for an Asian equivalent of NATO would appear to suggest that he’s not any better than the obvious Clown Worlders. Of course, we must keep in mind that the Japanese often keep their thoughts to themselves, and that an Asian NATO including China would be a very different creature than an alliance formed to oppose it.

In brief comments made to lawmakers before the run-off, Ishiba called for a fairer and kinder Japan and tears welled in his eyes after the final results were read out.

“I will do my utmost to believe in the people, to speak the truth with courage and sincerity, and to make this country a safe and secure place where everyone can live with a smile on their face once again,” he said in a short speech.

Ishiba’s campaign focused heavily on security issues, and he has indicated he will push for more oversight over the United States’s use of its bases in Japan.

“He is seen as a defence expert. He has proposed the establishment of an Asian-style NATO. And he is likely to continue with a more assertive Japan on the international stage,” said Al Jazeera’s McBride.

Following the result, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Beijing wants to improve ties with Japan, because “the long-term, sound and steady development of China-Japan relations serves the fundamental interests of the two peoples.”

Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said, “It’s the only appropriate choice.”

China certainly doesn’t appear to object to Ishida. So this will remain something on which the astute observer should keep an eye.

DISCUSS ON SG


So Much for “Self Defense”

The Japanese Self Defense Force sent one of its warships through the Taiwan Strait off the coast of China:

A Japanese warship cruised through the Taiwan Strait for the first time to assert its freedom of navigation, local media said Thursday, just a week after a Chinese aircraft carrier sailed between two Japanese islands near Taiwan. Washington and its allies are increasingly crossing the 180-kilometer Taiwan Strait to reinforce its status as an international waterway, angering Beijing.

The Sazanami destroyer made the passage on Wednesday at the same time as navy vessels from Australia and New Zealand, several Japanese media outlets said. The three nations planned to conduct military drills in the South China Sea, the reports said. There was no immediate confirmation from the defense ministry.

Last week, China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier sailed between two Japanese islands near Taiwan for the first time, accompanied by two destroyers. Tokyo said the ships entered its contiguous zone — an area up to 24 nautical miles from the Japanese coast — and called the incident “totally unacceptable”, while China said it had complied with international law. It followed the first confirmed incursion into Japanese airspace by a Chinese surveillance aircraft in August.

On Thursday, the Yomiuri Shimbun daily cited unnamed government sources as saying Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had instructed the Taiwan Strait journey over concern that doing nothing following China’s intrusion into Japanese territory could encourage Beijing to take more assertive actions.

That’s an aggressive action by a naval warship, not a defensive action. Japan appears to be choosing very poorly, although given that it is now under both military and financial occupation, it may not have much choice in the matter.

My guess is that Clown World is trying to warn China not to make its move on unification when the US-Israeli alliance attacks Lebanon, Syria, and possibly Iran.

DISCUSS ON SG


An Interesting Order

The spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry confirms that Chinese citizens have been instructed to leave Israel.

Anadolu Agency: It’s been reported by Israeli media that Chinese Embassy in Israel has asked its citizens to leave the country and return to China in a Sunday night statement. The embassy added that Chinese citizens should not travel to Israel for the time being. What’s the reason for the travel advice and the leave advice?

Lin Jian: We indeed released relevant consular notice. It is our unshirkable duty to protect the safety of overseas Chinese nationals.

The USA, the UK, and numerous European countries are advising their citizens to leave Lebanon, not Israel. Which does tend to raise the question: what does China know that Israel’s allies do not?

One thing that is definitely not a good sign:

Fighter jets of the Israeli Air Force are now landing at a reportedly BRITISH base on the island of Cyprus in the Mediterranean Sea, after bombing attacks upon Lebanon. Hezbollah made clear months ago, that if the Israelis use base(s) on Cyprus, to attack them in Lebanon, that Hezbollah will attack Cyprus with long range missiles.

DISCUSS ON SG


Putin Gives Clear Warning

If NATO assists in any long-range attacks on Russia, Russia will strike NATO directly. The problem is that the neoclowns desperately want the war between Russia and NATO to go hot because it’s the only path that might give them sufficient cover to permit them to escape the inevitable wrath of the West that they have abused and misruled for the last 40 years.

Some very consequential statements and movements today. The biggest — and most alarming — comes from Vladimir Putin. He minces no words — any attack inside Russia with Western precision missiles will be treated as an act of war and Russia will respond accordingly.

This should be setting off alarm bells at the Pentagon and USEUCOM (US European Command) and NATO. But, I think that the military lightweights infesting these various commands have persuaded themselves that Moscow is just blowing hot air. This is the kind of miscalculation that can lead to reckless decisions on the part of NATO and Ukraine.

While Putin is leaving no doubt about the position of Russia if such weapons are used, the reality on the ground in Ukraine is turning more dire for Ukraine with each passing day. Russia is announcing the capture of at least three settlements a day in the Donbass and is moving forward with determined lethality in the Kursk region. There is nothing that Ukraine can do, even with support from NATO, to alter the path to defeat

It’s not that the military lightweights in command have persuaded themselves, it’s the clowns giving them their orders who have told them that Putin wouldn’t dare to attack the NATO countries waging war on Russia. The fact that these are the exact same people who said Putin wouldn’t dare to attack Ukraine, that he was going to be thrown out of power, run out of ammunition, and die of cancer tends to strongly suggest that they are wrong.

Putin’s precise words were as follows:

There is an attempt to substitute concepts. Because we are not talking about allowing or prohibiting the Kiev regime to strike at Russian territory. It is already striking with the help of unmanned aerial vehicles and other means. But when it comes to using high–precision long-range Western-made weapons, it’s a completely different story. The fact is that, as I have already said, and any experts will confirm this (both here and in the West), the Ukrainian army is not able to strike with modern high-precision long-range systems of Western production. It can’t do that. This is possible only with the use of satellite data, which Ukraine does not have — this is data only from satellites of either the European Union or the United States, in general, from NATO satellites. This is the first one. 

The second, and very important, perhaps key, is that flight missions to these missile systems can, in fact, only be carried out by military personnel of NATO countries. Ukrainian servicemen cannot do this. And therefore, it is not a question of allowing the Ukrainian regime to strike Russia with these weapons or not to allow it. It’s about deciding whether NATO countries are directly involved in a military conflict or not. If this decision is made, it will mean nothing more than the direct participation of NATO countries, the United States, and European countries in the war in Ukraine. This is their direct involvement.

And this, of course, significantly changes the very essence, the very nature of the conflict. This will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are at war with Russia. And if this is the case, then, bearing in mind the change in the very essence of this conflict, we will make appropriate decisions based on the threats that will be created to us.”

It’s clear that Putin and the rest of Clown World’s enemies are waiting for something. Russia, China, Iran, and Hezbollah are all being very patient and passing up numerous justifiable opportunities to respond to various provocation after provocation by the clowns. The Narrative insists that they are all afraid of the mighty US Navy and the IDF, but that doesn’t make any sense in light of what we’ve been witnessing for the last two years.

To me, it’s looking more like one of two things. Either they are waiting for something to happen within Clown World, such as a structural collapse or some sort of palace coup that they support, or they are going to hit in one massive simultaneous multi-front offensive that will cause Clown World to collapse in shock. It might even be a case of Plan A and Plan B; it would be very surprising if astute Sigma leaders like Xi and Putin did not have contingency plans, and contingency plans for those contingency plans, already agreed upon and in place.

Fortunately for those of us who are in, but not of, Clown World, it’s clear that both the Russian and Chinese leaders view military force as a last resort, and not a first one. Which is a good thing, because the Ukrainian strategy, such as it is, is total fucking amateur hour.

The West must guarantee to be prepared to get more involved by sending ground troops to certain parts of Ukraine to free up Ukraine’s manpower which could be sent to the front lines. Zelensky believes after this campaign Russia would be forced to retreat, at some point Putin’s leadership would be destabilized and replaced, with the new leadership signing a peace deal.

As I have repeatedly pointed out, any military strategy that relies upon the enemy leadership being “destabilized and replaced” is retarded, wrong, inept, and historically ignorant. It simply doesn’t happen in real warfare. The proposed victory condition is intrinsically expeditionary, and falls within the realm of spycraft, not war. What we’re seeing now is the difference between real war conducted by well-schooled general staff and expeditionary war conducted by intelligence agencies.

Zelensky said that in two days he will present Joe Biden with a “plan for victory over Russia.” The latecomer said the plan would be, in particular, psychological and political in nature.

In times of war, being clever with the word spells and the psychobabble is no substitute for industrial capacity.

DISCUSS ON SG


China Rejects Clown World

And all of its globalist pomps:

According to the US Department of State, the PRC Ministry of Civil Affairs has notified the American government that since August 28, civil affairs departments across China will no longer carry out foreign adoption work. Could you confirm the stop? And if so, could you elaborate on it?

Mao Ning: The Chinese government has adjusted its cross-border adoption policy. Henceafter, apart from the adoption of a child or stepchild from one’s collateral relatives by blood of the same generation and up to the third degree of kinship by foreigners coming to China, China will not send children abroad for adoption. This is also in line with the spirit of relevant international covenants. We express our appreciation to those foreign governments and families, who wish to adopt Chinese children, for their good intention and the love and kindness they have shown.

This is a strong statement of Chinese nationalism. It’s a rejection of the concept that an individual’s “nation” is whatever a piece of paper says it is and that one’s identity is chiefly determined by geography rather than blood. This is an important step in combatting the concept of economy uber alles, the globalist philosophy which regards human beings as nothing more than interchangeable cogs in the global finance machine.

I doubt it’s an accident that the rise of Russia coincides with the Russian ban on US adoptions in 2012.

DISCUSS ON SG