Why the Smart Money is on China

In England, an Appeals Court ruled that parental consent is not required by children under 16 who wish to pretend that they are of the opposite sex and interfere with their physical development. In the USA, the Hellmouth is rabidly gnawing away at the foundations of Western civilization. Meanwhile, in China, the state-run media is hailing the state-run entertainment system that is encouraging families to have more children.

Two TV series based on families with several children have been launched recently and both of them have had stunning performance in terms of word of mouth and viewing numbers, and this could help Chinese audiences see the happiness of multiple-kid families and give them courage to have more children.

The TV dramas, Dear Parents and The Bond, were released online almost at the same time. Both focus on family relations in large-size families with at least five children and they have been viewed more than 2 billion times on Tencent Video in total.

The 43-episode series Dear Parents follows Liu Biyun and Jiang Tianhuai who became husband and wife in their second marriage. Liu had two children with her ex-husband and Jiang had three children with his ex-wife. The seven-member family lives under the same roof and they finally get closer after dealing with many problems.

The Bond focuses on a family surnamed Qiao that has five children. The mother of the family died when giving birth to the fifth son and the father, who should be the backbone of the family, reveals his true colors.

Selfish and unfeeling, the man turns all of his focus inward, leaving his children to fend for themselves. Realizing his father would never be the man he ought to be, the eldest son voluntarily steps into the role of caretaker. All Qiao siblings gradually become aware of the fact that they are on their own with their big brother, but are willing to do whatever is necessary to keep their family together.

I give it 18-24 months before Xi is declared the new Hitler by the media. He’s already advocating the Kinder and Kuche, all that is left is for him to embrace the Kirche.

China Contemplates Confrontation

This sort of blustery rhetoric tends to be dismissed by Americans in the aftermath of the wars against Arabs in the Middle East, but it shouldn’t be when it comes from China in response to various diplomatic provocations by the US State Department using European proxies.

Diplomatic measures alone are obviously not enough. If the US and the Taiwan island change the names, they are suspected of touching the red line of China’s Anti-Secession Law, and the Chinese mainland will have to take severe economic and military measures to combat the arrogance of the US and the island of Taiwan. At that time, the mainland should impose severe economic sanctions on the island and even carry out an economic blockade on the island, depending on the circumstances.

Militarily, Chinese mainland’s fighter jets should fly over the island of Taiwan and place the island’s airspace into the patrol area of the PLA. This is a step that the mainland must take sooner or later. The name change provides the Chinese mainland with sufficient reason to strengthen our sovereign claim over the island of Taiwan. It is anticipated that the Taiwan army will not dare to stop the PLA fighter jets from flying over the island. If the Taiwan side dares open fire, the Chinese mainland will not hesitate to give “Taiwan independence” forces a decisive and destructive blow….

Will peace come if the Chinese mainland puts up with all this and swallows its anger for the sake of peace? If the mainland doesn’t strike back decisively, US warships will dock at the island of Taiwan, its fighter aircraft will land on the island and its troops may be stationed in the island again. At that time, where will be China’s prestige as a great power? How can the country maintain its system of defending its interests on the international stage?

The fact is that a contest of will has been formed regarding the Taiwan question. Since China has declared that the Taiwan question is a matter of our core interests, we must take resolute actions to protect the bottom line of this exact national interest at any cost. If the Democratic Progress Party authority really dares to take the risk of triggering a war to push for a name change, and the US, which just suffered a debacle in Afghanistan, is not afraid of being involved in a new war, then what is there for the mainland to be scared of?

It seems that sooner or later, the Taiwan Straits will be plunged into a storm that will change the situation there drastically. And judging from the current actions of the US and the island of Taiwan, we can be sure that even if they will have to take this step back, they will step forth again soon. Thus, right now we need to be fully prepared to blow them out of the water in the Taiwan Straits.

Global Times, 12 September 2021

There is a rational argument for the US military provoking a confrontation with China sooner rather than later, as the technological and production trends are clearly working in China’s favor. The Chinese are fully aware of these trends, which is why they have resolutely avoided military confrontation with the USA for decades. And that’s why it is so significant that at least some parties in China believe, and are willing to publicly declare, that the right time for resolving “the Taiwan question” is right now.

UPDATE: The provocations aren’t only diplomatic.

US Guided-missile destroyer USS Benfold trespassed in waters near the Meiji Reef in the South China Sea Wednesday without permission from China. The Chinese side mobilized aircraft and ships to warn off and expel the ship from the waters. In a 7th Fleet news release, the US side acknowledged that USS Benfold sailed within 12 nautical miles of Meiji Reef. But it said the warship was asserting navigational rights and freedoms. It claimed the Meiji reef “is not entitled to a territorial sea under international law,” and “the land reclamation efforts, installations, and structures” built on the reef “do not change this characterization under international law.”

China and the US don’t agree on the nature of the 12 nautical miles of Meiji Reef. Other different views exist worldwide. But international law doesn’t empower any country to challenge others’ sovereign claim with an intrusion by a warship. The US in particular has no right to do so given the fact that it has not ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Global Times, 13 September 2021


The End of Free Trade

What is being described as “the heist of the century” is striking fear into every banker and parasite bloating himself on the financial flows of the failing neoliberal world order and the so-called global economy:

Arm is widely regarded as the most important semiconductor IP firm. Their IP ships in billions of new chips every year from phones, cars, microcontrollers, Amazon servers, and even Intel’s latest IPU. Originally it was a British owned and headquartered company, but SoftBank acquired the firm in 2016. They proceeded to plow money into Arm Limited to develop deep pushes into the internet of things, automotive, and server. Part of their push was also to go hard into China and become the dominant CPU supplier in all segments of the market.

As part of the emphasis on the Chinese market, SoftBank succumbed to pressure and formed a joint venture. In the new joint venture, Arm Limited, the SoftBank subsidiary sold a 51% stake of the company to a consortium of Chinese investors for paltry $775M. This venture has the exclusive right to distribute Arm’s IP within China. Within 2 years, the venture went rogue. Technically it has always been legally independent, but Arm still maintained control. Recently, Arm China gave a presentation to the industry about rebranding their own IP, extending it by developing more, and emphasizing that they are striking their own independently operated path.

This firm is called “安谋科技”, but it is not part of Arm Limited.

This is the tech heist of the century….

Despite formally being fired, Allen Wu has remained in power. He ousted executives that were loyal to Arm. He has even hired security paid for by Arm China that reports to him. This security has kept Arm out of the Arm China offices. Allen Wu has aggressively taken over the firm and is operating it how he sees fit. One interesting tidbit is that Allen Wu sued Arm China in order to declare his dismissal illegal. He essentially sued himself as he represented both sides in that specific court case.

Arm has halted the transfer of any IP to entities on export control list. According to Arm, no IP has been stolen. Simultaneously, Arm has also tried to appeal to the government stating that this is bad for the Chinese semiconductor industry.

This leads us to the present day, where Arm China held an event at which they formally declared their independence. They proclaimed that 安谋科技 is China’s largest CPU IP supplier. It was born from Arm, but is an independently operate, Chinese owned company.

This is a fascinating situation, because the gunboat diplomacy to which the multinational corporations have appealed for the last 120 years is simply not an option in this case. There is absolutely nothing that the ARM investors or Softbank or its bankers can do if China decides that it wants to keep ARM China in the hands of the Chinese individuals who presently control it.

Demonstrating, once more, the profound difference between influence and power.

First They Shut Down Big Tech

Now China is gunning for the Hellmouth:

In a dramatic turn for the major studios, Hollywood’s share of China’s box office is in free fall, reportedly collapsing to less than 10 percent as Beijing aims to bolster its domestic movie industry while continuing to block major Hollywood releases from playing in Chinese cinemas.

The result is a potential existential crisis for Hollywood, which has bent over backwards to please China’s Communist dictators in the hopes of maintaining access to the lucrative Chinese market.

But the reverse has happened. Hollywood’s share of the China box office market has plummeted to just 9.5 percent so far this year, according to data from consultancy Artisan Gateway, as reported by Variety.

The stark decline comes as Hollywood imports are being edged out by domestic releases.

Last year, only two Hollywood releases cracked China’s top-ten grossing movies — Tenet and The Croods: A New Age. For 2019, only Avengers: Endgame and Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw made the top-ten list. A decade ago, Hollywood accounted for eight of China’s top-ten grossing movies.

Chinese audiences are instead gravitating toward home-grown movies in larger numbers, lifting the time-traveling comedy Hi, Mom and the buddy-cop adventure Detective Chinatown 3 to blockbuster status. Meanwhile, recent Hollywood titles like Disney-Pixar’s Luca and Disney’s Raya and the Last Dragon have failed to resonate with local audiences.

Even Universal’s dependable Fast & Furious franchise, which has been enormously popular in China, is showing signs of fatigue. The latest installment, F9, saw its China grosses plummet in the second week by a stunning 85 percent.

Hollywood’s decline in China comes as the Communist country has overtaken the United States to become the world’s largest movie market.

If you think it’s an accident that China increasingly appears to be targeting the neoclown strongholds in the USA, well, you’re not paying attention. It’s obvious that China is not so much focusing its “unrestricted warfare” on the USA per se anymore as on a specific and influential foreign demographic. My guess is that the media will be next, followed by Wall Street.

Believe it or not, there is not only considerably more freedom in the Chinese media than in the US media – by which I mean there are far fewer no-go zones – the rules are considerably more coherent and stable. Remember, I’ve not only been interviewed on Chinese state TV about trade and cryptocurrencies, I was asked more than once to return, most likely because both my predictions – contra the other experts – were correct. Do you think that would ever happen on Fox, CBS, ESPN, or even the Disney Channel?

Remember, China’s primary goal is to be left to their own devices. And their increasing engagement with the West appears to have taught them that unlike China, the USA is not a nation.


Rumors of Invasion

Things appear to be quietly heating up around the Taiwan Straits:

China’s growing assertiveness toward Taiwan has triggered a public push by Japanese leaders to plan for a possible conflict, a shift that could lead to closer cooperation with the U.S. military.

Tokyo officials, normally wary of upsetting Beijing, are speaking openly about preparing for a crisis and supporting Taiwan, a self-ruled island claimed by China, despite Japan’s pacifist constitution.

Like the U.S., Japan doesn’t have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. But on Friday, lawmakers in Tokyo and Taipei held a rare meeting by videoconference to discuss ways to boost ties, including possible cooperation in maritime rescue.

Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso said recently in a speech to supporters that Japan and the U.S. should plan together to defend the island in the event of hostilities.

In its annual regional security review, Japan said there a “greater sense of crisis than ever before” regarding Taiwan, after China stepped up maneuvers by its ships and aircraft nearby.

I’ve heard multiple rumors of an incipient invasion of Taiwan – incipient meaning sometime in September or October – from various sources. Some of them are flying around the chans, as AC notes:

There was an anon on 4Chan who claimed to be an insider at State, and he said China offered Biden a deal – they would tell him when the Taiwan invasion would begin, and in return he would not tell Taiwan, and he would promise to not get involved. Supposedly Biden took the deal, and the date is Sept 25th. Supposedly it will be two weeks of aerial bombardment, followed by a land invasion.

I’m very skeptical of that particular rumor, because I expect Taiwan to submit within 24 hours of the mainland launching an attack of any kind. Unless the Red Army begins with an invasion, there shouldn’t be any need for anything more than a relatively peaceful occupation.

China Shows Up for the Future

Unlike Americans since 1965, China actually pays serious attention to its demographics because its leaders understand that the makeup of the population is what determines the health and capabilities of the country.

China on Friday passed a law amendment which allows each couple to have three children and stipulates supportive policies for childbearing, with observers believing it indicates China has officially moved from restricting births to encouraging births, paving the way for not only the third-child policy’s full implementation across the country, but also potentially encouraging even more births.

It took less than three months for the policy to be made into law after it was first announced on May 31 at a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, revealing the urgency and gravity of China’s population development beset by falling fertility rates, a shrinking workforce and increasing aging population, Chinese observers said.

The comprehensive supportive measures for the shift of the population policy – which were not highlighted in the last revision – show China’s strong determination in actively tackling its population challenges and building a fertility-friendly society, and more detailed measures are expected to be introduced soon, they said.

The amendment to the Population and Family Planning Law was passed at a session of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee on Friday. 

The amendment says one couple can have three children, and it cancels relevant restrictive measures, including social maintenance fees and fines on couples who violate the law to have more children than permitted.

Twenty-one provisions were amended, deleted or added to the law, and the amendment took effect immediately after its announcement on Friday, the Xinhua News Agency reported. 

One can always tell that a China skeptic is totally clueless if they mention “the one-child policy” or make the ridiculous assertion that China is somehow demographically doomed. The Chinese birth rate was much higher than the US or any of the European states until 1992. It’s now marginally lower due to the one-child policy established in 1979, but that was eliminated in 2015. And between the aggressive pro-family policies now being instituted and the strong nationalist restrictions on immigration, imports, investment, and business ownership, the Chinese are already in a vastly stronger position for the future than beleaguered Americans, who are on the verge of being outnumbered in what used to be their own country.

Remember, the future belongs to those who show up for it.


The US Won’t Even PRETEND to Defend Taiwan

A government official helpfully clarifies that whatever Creepy Joe happens to blurt out should not be confused with actual US foreign policy:

A senior Biden administration official said Thursday that American policy on Taiwan has not changed despite Joe Biden appearing to suggest the United States would defend the island if it were attacked.

In an ABC Interview, Biden grouped Taiwan in with countries that the U.S. is committed to defending.

“They are…entities we’ve made agreements with based on not a civil war they’re having on that island or in South Korea, but on an agreement where they have a unity government that, in fact, is trying to keep bad guys from doing bad things to them,” Biden said.

“We made a sacred commitment to Article 5 that if in fact anyone were to invade or take action against our NATO allies, we would respond. Same with Japan, same with South Korea, same with – Taiwan. It’s not even comparable to talk about that.”

In case you are unfamiliar, Article 5 is an agreement which states that an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all.

As reported by Reuters, a senior Biden official said the policy has not changed, however, and Biden simply misspoke.

Indeed, the U.S. is required by law to provide Taiwan with the necessary means to defend itself, but has followed a policy of “strategic ambiguity” on whether it would intervene to protect the island if there were a Chinese attack.

Bonnie Glaser, a Taiwan expert at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, called Biden’s apparent mistake “unfortunate.”

“The U.S. had an Article 5 commitment to Taiwan from 1954 to 1979. The Biden administration isn’t considering returning to that commitment, as indicated by public statements by Kurt Campbell.”

Translation: the USA has not had a commitment to defend Taiwan since 1979 and is not, under any circumstances, going to make any attempt to defend it from an attack by Chinese military forces. Not that the USA has any intention of honoring its “sacred” Article 5 commitments either, you understand.

Xi and Putin certainly do.


6 Reasons the US Will Abandon Taiwan

The Chinese government does not appear to be impressed by the response of Taiwan President Tsai or the US government to the recent US surrender to the Taliban in Afghanistan.

On Wednesday, Taiwan’s regional leader Tsai Ing-wen finally made a speech on the panic on the island triggered by Afghanistan’s situation. She declared that Taiwan’s only option is to make itself stronger, more united and more determined to defend itself. Just before Tsai’s speech, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Tuesday responded to whether the US will abandon Taiwan. He said that “When it comes to Taiwan, it is a fundamentally different question in a different context” and the US’ “commitment” to Taiwan remains “as strong as it’s ever been.”

The statements of Sullivan and Tsai show the rapid collapse of the US-supported Afghan government has brought a real shock to the island. Both Washington and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities are diffident about this, and they believe it is necessary to calm the doubts.

However, the empty words of Sullivan and Tsai were predictable. They would inevitably say so, and had to say so. As to whether Taiwan will show resistance when the mainland uses force to unify the island one day, they did not offer any convincing additional information.

Will the US abandon Taiwan? Fundamentally speaking, this is a matter of time and situation, and it will not be decided by a few elites in the US and Taiwan. We believe that as long as the mainland’s strength continues to grow, and as long as it prepares fully for military struggles and has a firm will to unify, then there is no doubt the US is doomed to eventually abandon Taiwan.

The six reasons provided are convincing, perhaps even conclusive. Regardless, it is clear that there is no possibility that the USA is going to go to war to defend Taiwan from China under any circumstances. While it’s true that the US commitment to Taiwan is “as strong as it’s ever been”, all that means is that the US was never intending to defend the island in the first place. Forget Afghanistan, the US doesn’t even defend its own borders these days.

The concept of “strategic uncertainty” only works as long as the opponent is genuinely uncertain about one’s intentions. And China, correctly, is now certain that the USA won’t do anything to prevent the inevitable annexation of what China has always considered to be a rebel province. At this point, it’s more uncertain that the US troops would even fight to defend South Korea in the event of a North Korean attack.

The shock and awe of Desert Storm has long since dissipated. The monopolar world is no more. And even if it takes a decade or more for the Israel-First imperialists in the USA to admit it, this is the reality of modern geopolitics.

Of course, all of this obscures the larger issue that absolutely no one in the media presently dares to discuss. Since the US military can’t, and won’t, defend Afghanistan, since it can’t, and won’t, defend Ukraine, if it can’t, and won’t, defend Taiwan, is it still even able to defend its greatest ally, Israel? While there is no question that all the neoclowns and their pet politicians are more than willing to have it do so, it is the question of its capabilities that is the much more relevant one.

Discuss on SG.

Taiwan is Nervous

And China not only knows it, it is openly mocking the fears of “the secessionists” in the aftermath of the US collapse in Afghanistan. From Global Times, the English-language Chinese newspaper that should be on your list of daily reads these days.

“Yesterday’s Saigon, today’s Afghanistan, and tomorrow’s Taiwan?” read some online posts by internet users in the island of Taiwan, implying that the so-called alliance that Taiwan has forged with the US is nothing but an empty promise that will eventually “leave the Taiwan people hurting alone.”

An Op-Ed in local Taiwan news site udn.com said that the unexpected end in Afghanistan has “shocked” US allies and partners, who have become wary of putting the safety of Taiwan in the hands of the US, as the latter may pull the same tricks played in Kabul.

The US withdrawal from Afghanistan will also have a global impact, especially weighing on its image and credibility, the Op-Ed in a Taipei-based news site said, as Washington’s strength in maintaining the global order will be challenged, and the power confrontation in the Indo-Pacific Strategy targeting China will be questioned.

“They should say the day before yesterday, Vietnam, yesterday, Taiwan and today, Afghanistan. Wasn’t the island abandoned by the US in 1979?” Chang Ching, a research fellow at the Society for Strategic Studies based in the island, told the Global Times on Monday. 

As part of its latest efforts to play the “Taiwan card” in countering China, the Biden administration recently announced it would hold a virtual Summit for Democracy, which excited the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authority of Taiwan. Since taking office in January, US President Joe Biden has taken various measures to demonstrate its deterrent against China, such as deploying military aircraft to the island, sending warships across the Taiwan Straits several times and dispatching senior officials to visit the island, blatantly playing the “Taiwan card” to ruffle China’s feathers.

However, the failure of the US in Afghanistan should serve as a warning to the secessionists in the island, who have to understand that they cannot count on Washington, as Afghanistan is not the first place where the US abandoned its allies, nor will it be the last, experts warned….

The US retreat from Afghanistan has taught the island of Taiwan an important lesson, that is, the cross-Straits relations must be resolved by Taiwan itself, as the US may choose to abandon the island at any time according to its own core interests, Chang Ya-chung, a Taipei-based political scientist and member of the Kuomintang, told the Global Times on Monday. 

Furthermore, the US has never promised to send troops if a military conflict occurs across the Taiwan Straits, and only said that it would sell weapons to Taiwan to increase its military strength, Chang noted. 

The US retreat from Afghanistan has taught the island of Taiwan an important lesson, that is, the cross-Straits relations must be resolved by Taiwan itself, as the US may choose to abandon the island at any time according to its own core interests, Chang Ya-chung, a Taipei-based political scientist and member of the Kuomintang, told the Global Times on Monday. 

GLOBAL TIMES, August 16, 2021

Translation: Cut a deal while you still can. The US military isn’t going to even try to stop us, so we will take the island whenever we decide we’re willing to pay the price.

UPDATE: With some amazingly bad judgement that is only exceeded by his astonishingly poor timing, a presumably senile US Senator appears to have just handed China a casus belli to invade Taiwan. On Twitter, of all places.

A senior US senator, also a member of US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, on his social media revealed that the US has 30,000 soldiers stationed in China’s Taiwan island. Chinese experts said if this is true, it is a military invasion and occupation of China’s Taiwan and equivalent to the US declaring war on China. 

If the tweet is correct, China could immediately activate Anti-Secession Law to destroy and expel US troops in Taiwan and reunify Taiwan militarily, experts noted.

In the tweet, Senator John Cornyn listed the number of US troops stationed in South Korea, Germany, Japan, China’s Taiwan and on the African continent to show how the number of US soldiers has dwindled in Afghanistan. But in the process, Cornyn revealed the shocking news that there are 30,000 US troops in China’s Taiwan island. 

His tweet raised a wave of doubts among netizens with many commenting below his tweet: “how come the US still has troops in Taiwan,” “so the US army has a secret division in Taiwan,” “Cornyn must have mistaken the number,” and “this should have been before 1979.” 

As a senior senator from Texas, who was once a Republican Senate Majority Whip for the 114th and 115th Congresses, and now a member of US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Cornyn should be aware of the US government’s military intelligence. 

Thus, the possibility that the US is hiding 30,000 troops in China’s Taiwan island cannot be ruled out, and there is a probability the secret was accidentally spilled out by this senior US politician, Chinese observers said. As we know, the US has maintained military communications with China’s Taiwan including weapon sales and military trainings. 

GLOBAL TIMES, August 17, 2021

If there are US troops present on Taiwan island, China will crush them by force: Global Times editorial

“If that is true, the Chinese government and the Chinese people will never accept it. It is believed that China will immediately put the Anti-Secession Law into use, destroy and expel US troops in Taiwan by military means, and at the same time realize reunification by force.”

I wish I could say that even the converged gay generals in the Pentagon couldn’t possibly be that stupid. But as unlikely and as ridiculous as a secret stash of US troops on Taiwan sounds, it’s exactly the sort of Smart Boy strategery that laid the foundation for the recent Afghan debacle.

Discuss on SG.

China chooses life

In case it isn’t entirely clear that China has rejected the Prometheans and their path to national suicide through empire, China skeptics can’t even point to the now-outdated One-Child Policy anymore:

China is making a major change in how its citizens can form a family. Monday, the Chinese Communist Party said it would allow married couples to have as many as three children to combat the country’s aging population.

Got that? Couples in China are now allowed to have a third child.

The change comes five years after Beijing ended its infamous “one-child policy” to allow couples to keep a second child.

State-run, Xi Jinping-approved Xinhua News Agency says the new policy will “improve the country’s population structure, actively implement the national strategy to respond to the aging population, and maintain the country’s demographic advantage.”

And if the mere permission doesn’t work, who here doesn’t believe that China won’t be ruthless enough to offer serious financial incentives to married couples? Especially when Hungary is already providing lifetime waivers on personal income tax for women raising at least four children and large vehicle subsidies for large families.

Meanwhile, in the rapidly declining imperial USA, parents are being socially incentivized to put their little boys in dresses and sterilize their little girls with hormone blockers and surgery. 

This is why it is silly to pronounce any nation dead due to sub-replacement birth rates. In less than one generation, a single determined nationalist at the helm can turn it around. On the plus side, WWIII looks increasingly unlikely, by virtue of being unnecessary.