Tag: China

Why Russia Can’t Stop

The special military operation in Ukraine is not about Ukraine. It was never about Ukraine. The Russians have been telling everyone this from the start, but the media refuses to report the truth about the nature and scale of the conflict.

The world has entered an era of major transformation. In that sense, the narrow focus is – will they reach an agreement on Ukraine? No. Every time you think about that, you have to recall how it all started, why it is like this, how wrongly the world is structured, how important it is for Russia to insist on its interests, why the European bureaucracy itself cannot accept that, because otherwise that would mean the end of both it and the political class of many countries. Why can’t this conflict stop? Because it can’t be settled. Someone has to win. Just as with the US and Iran (which, incidentally, is a much more local conflict) – it is impossible to agree, there can be no deal. There can only be some movement in which one of the sides explicitly or implicitly recognizes its defeat. It may not be total defeat, but at least at some stage one side wins and the other side does not recognize it. Such a process will last a long time, but in the end there will still be some de facto consolidation of the results of this conflict. Not a negotiated one, unfortunately, but a factual one. Diplomats may formalize such a conclusion, or they may not. Frankly, that is no longer important.

When we talk about Russia-US negotiations on Ukraine, there are two extremes, and both miss the essence. Yes, we are negotiating, and we constantly demonstrate that Russia and the US have nothing to fight over. We are ready to coexist with the US on the same globe. That is exactly why Putin says: “Of course, Kushner and Witkoff are welcome guests, come. What else should we show you from Moscow’s kitchen?” You see, the US cannot conduct negotiations on Ukraine because it cannot force either Kiev, London, or Brussels to accept Russia’s reasonable demands. And how are they going to pressure Russia? I think the Trump administration more or less understands that it is pointless. So what kind of negotiations on Ukraine can there be?

As I said back in 2022, we’re already in WWIII. It’s not as dramatic as WWII or as violent on the battlefield as WWI, because the grounds being contested are more abstract than material. Right now, the most significant front is the Strait of Hormuz, which has serious ramifications for Venezuela and Canada due to the global importance of oil. But there is no violence on the second front, which is China, Taiwan, and Japan, and the real question is the destiny of the latter.

Taiwan island is already lost to China. Its fate, already obvious, was absolutely sealed with the defeat of the US Navy by Yemen and Iran. A navy that cannot impose its will on third- and fifth-rate coastal powers cannot hope to contest the will of a primary regional power in its own sphere of influence. Everyone understands this, even though the Chinese are too polite and the Americans are too embarrassed to admit it in public.

The real question is when Japan will throw off its occupation by the USA, which will probably require some sort of mutual assistance arrangement with China. The US military does not give up its bases easily, as the Philippines, the Europeans, and the Iraqis have learned, but it will give them up under pressure. And only the Chinese can provide the Japanese with the amount of pressure they will require to free themselves from the financial servitude under which they have labored, at great and increasing cost to their nation, for the last 70 years.

So that’s the big event that I think will make this global transformation undeniable even to those who still think nothing has changed and we are still living in the post-WWII era. An agreement of some sort between China and Japan, followed by a US withdrawal from its bases in the Home Islands and Okinawa.

On a related note, my guess about the recent visits to Moscow by the CIA Director and the senior negotiators is that Russia and the USA are in the process of reaching an agreement concerning what Russia will be permitted to do to defend itself against the UK and German logistical support for Ukrainian attacks without the USA agreeing to accept those states’ subsequent attempts to invoke NATO Article 5. Note that the USA has absolutely no obligation to take part in any so-called “collective self-defense,” only “such action as it deems necessary.”

The Russian embassy in Berlin has stated “From this point forward, facilities in Germany that house long-range (weapons) systems (being used by Ukraine to attack Russia) will be considered legitimate targets. This comes as German Chancellor Merz this week showcased factories in Germany that hope to produce 5,000 attack drones per month for Ukraine, to make long-range-strikes into Russia. As most people would probably guess, the very first time Russia hits a factory inside Germany, the country of Germany will attempt to invoke Article 5 of the NATO Treaty, “Collective Self Defense.”

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The Great Bifurcation Advances

The Chinese Supreme Court has made it clear that China is now forcing corporations to choose between respecting US sanctions or respecting their existing contracts with Chinese businesses:

China’s top court recently highlighted the first judicial ruling establishing the mandatory nature of its Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law, which experts say could provide legal precedent and guide Chinese companies facing increasingly frequent overseas sanctions amid intensifying geopolitical tensions.

The case, heard by the Shanghai Maritime Court, centred on a dispute that involved US sanctions, a Singapore shipping company, a Hong Kong-based company and electronic goods shipped from Shanghai. In 2022, the Hong Kong-based company hired a Singaporean shipping firm to transport electronic goods from Shanghai to Panama, but the Singaporean firm later refused to deliver them and eventually returned the cargo to Shanghai, citing the Hong Kong company’s inclusion on a United States sanctions list. That caused losses for the Hong Kong company.

A court judgment unveiled last month showed the Shanghai court ruled against the Singaporean firm in February, ordering it to pay more than 4.99 million yuan (US$739,600) in damages plus interest and holding that it could not use a foreign country’s “discriminatory restrictions” as a defence under Article 12 of China’s Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law.

The case was included in a selection of illustrative maritime cases by the Supreme People’s Court that was released in June. In its commentary on the selection, the top court said the case was “the first judicial ruling to explicitly establish the mandatory application of the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law”. It added that the case carried “strong exemplary significance” in demonstrating how China’s maritime courts implement the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law – which took effect in 2021 – and safeguard the stability of supply and industrial chains.

Given the size of the Chinese market and the growing power of its economy, it’s pretty obvious which side most Asian corporations are going to take. What will be interesting is to see how many Japanese and European corporations also choose China.

Regardless, the failure of sanctions with regards to both Russia and Iran now demonstrate that it’s a weapon that harms the wielder more than it does the target.

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Fact Check

Pictures of former US presidents Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush touching the Western Wall in Jerusalem were misrepresented online as taken in the Great Wall of China. Posts shared globally falsely claimed the pictures showed the former leaders “swearing allegiance” to the Chinese Communist Party

It’s good the fact-checkers got this sorted out. Obviously, US presidents swear allegiance to Israel, not to the Chinese Communist Party. We wouldn’t want Americans to think their leaders are working for the wrong foreign country!

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The China That Can Say No

China is the first Iranian trading partner, but will not be the only one, to reject the USA’s desperate attempt to win on the economic front what it lost on both the military and the economic fronts:

Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: Donald Trump has threatened to wage a full-fledged economic war on Iran. Many say the economic threat is aimed at making up for the failure of the war, in the military domain, that the U.S. and Israel waged against Iran. What’s your take on that?

Lin Jian: Sanctions and pressure tactics are not the solution. China calls on parties to act responsibly and stick to the political and diplomatic approach. 

Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting: Iran has endured years of sanctions imposed by the U.S. The Islamic Republic has either managed to bypass or find alternatives. And now it is said that Trump has no tangible card to enforce what he claims as “toughest sanctions.” What’s your viewpoint?

Lin Jian: China believes that military means, sanctions and pressure tactics are not the solution. On the contrary, they will only lead to escalation that serves no one’s interests. We call for efforts to solve disputes through dialogue and negotiation.

AFP: A follow-up on Iran, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged China to join Washington in putting strong economic pressure on Iran. This was in an interview yesterday. Bessent noted that China has historically imported much of its energy from the Gulf. Does the foreign ministry have a response to these comments by Bessent?

Lin Jian: I answered a similar question yesterday. Let me reiterate, China opposes illicit unilateral sanctions that lack basis in international law and UN Security Council mandate. We call on parties to act responsibly and stick to the political and diplomatic approach.

In other words, China will continue to ignore US demands and it will continue to support its ally and trading partner, Iran.

In not entirely unrelated news, I was rather impressed with the geopolitical analysis of US-China relations on the third episode of the fourth season of Lioness. I also found it amusing how assiduously the show avoided making any reference to Israel whatsoever in its discussion of intelligence operations in the United States.

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A Return to Militarism

It was always inevitable, but now it’s real, if not yet official:

Recently, Japanese vessels and aircraft have provoked and harassed a Chinese naval formation carrying out routine training missions. The Global Times obtained an exclusive audio recording in which Japan’s Self-Defense Forces referred to itself as the “Japan Navy.” In response, the Chinese navy task group has taken firm stance and corrected Japan’s mistaken rhetoric.

“Chinese Navy task group, this is ‘Japan Navy’. We are conducting lawful activities in the international airspace in accordance with the international law. Out.” according to the audio.

In response, the Chinese side made correction: “Japanese aircraft, this is China Navy task group. Your so-called ‘Japan Navy’ has violated your constitution. You can only keep Self-Defense forces. Pay attention to your words. Over.”

However, the Japanese side refused to correct the mistake, and claimed that “China Navy task group, this is ‘Japan Navy’. We are keeping safe distance in accordance with international law and practice. Out.”

The Chinese side then responded that “Japanese aircraft, this is China Navy task group. Warning: in case of misunderstanding and miscalculation, stop your action and leave immediately. Over.”

We all know it’s “the Japanese Navy”. And it’s about time. Of course, the official change probably won’t come until just before the Japanese throw off Clown World control and switch sides to become allies with China.

Which, of course, sounds far-fetched, but it’s something that I nevertheless anticipate.

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How to Stop Corruption

China has a less-corrupt government system than any government in the West these days.

A court in eastern China has sentenced a former city official to death for taking more than 2.2bn yuan ($325m; £243m) in bribes over 30 years.

Yang Youlin, who served in various positions in Nanjing city from 1993 to 2023, was also convicted of embezzlement, abuse of power and money laundering, with his ill-gotten gains amounting to one of the highest in recent years.

The 69-year-old exploited his roles to help others secure engineering contracts, land transfers and financing, in exchange for money and valuables, said state media.

Yang was investigated as part of President Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption crackdown which has cut through military ranks and high-level banking, among other sectors.

Yang, who spent much of his career working on economic and technological development in Nanjing, had committed offences “of an extremely serious nature” and “caused exceptionally heavy losses to the interests of the state and the people”, a court in Changzhou city said on Monday.

Since coming to power, President Xi has launched waves of anti-corruption drives, which critics say have also been used as a tool to purge political rivals.

Death sentences for white collar crimes however remain rare, though they are meted out occasionally, typically if the cases involve large sums exceeding 1bn yuan.

For instance, former finance chief Lai Xiaomin was executed in 2021 for taking 1.8bn yuan in bribes over a 10-year period.

Li Jianping, a former Inner Mongolia official, was executed in 2024 for embezzling and taking bribes totaling more than 3bn yuan.

In many other cases, the courts handed out jail terms or suspended death sentences, which get commuted to life imprisonment after a specified duration.

If your political rivals are corrupt, then obviously an anti-corruption campaign will purge them. That’s a feature, not a bug. The difference between Xi and the ineffectual Trump could not be more obvious than the former’s massively successful war on corruption and Trump’s total failure to arrest or convict, let alone execute, a single traitorous and corrupt government pedophile.

There’s no excuse for that. Waging a stupid and disastrous war on Iran while failing to make peace with Russia is always going to be a major stain on his legacy. But that’s how things go for big-talking cowards. Sooner or later, the rhetoric has to become real, or it just looks ridiculous.

Trump isn’t a terrible president. But he had a real opportunity for greatness, and for one reason or another, he failed to seize his moment. Now, barring the possibility that there are things going on that we can’t presently see, it appears he’ll go down with his friends in Clown World.

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The Great Fiction of 1989

It’s not hard to understand why the Chinese have absolutely no trust of Clown World or its pet media once one learns the truth of Tiananmen Square. And it does tend to call other Western media reports of China into question.

The US reportedly contacted key leaders among the protesting students and made them an offer—don’t wind down, go harder on the protesting and we’ll give you US passports, CIA-run safe passage out of China, a new home in the richest country in the world, and enrolment in top US universities—Harvard, Princeton, Columbia. Now that was an offer hard to refuse.

In late May, student leader Chai Ling gave her infamously puzzling interview/ talk, where she seemed to predict a Tiananman Square massacre in which she would die. She said she was speaking her last words, as there would be “a massacre which would spill blood like a river through Tiananmen Square” – but she also included the information that she “would not be there” as her new plan was to move to the United States to study there! Years later, she wrote that her remarkable prediction of a coming violent crackdown which would lead to a Tiananmen Square massacre was something she had heard from Li Lu, not her own forecast.

Another person in the leading student group, Kong Qingdong, later recalled how he how he had come across undergraduates using a mimeograph machine to makes copies of personal documents, to give to the US Embassy in return for passports. Two of the top leaders, Chai Ling and Feng Congde, were getting them, he was told by fellow undergraduates.

Kong refused to join the rush to take US passports, saying that the protest was all about making China a better place.
Kong angrily declined to join them. He felt the protests were about standing up for China and enabling socialist modernization for the people—not grabbing passports handed out by a hostile foreign power.

Something else was troubling Kong, which he found hard to articulate. He later said: “I wasn’t fond of the way the forceful way the government spoke. But what they were actually saying was: ‘This is a complex situation. There are certain forces behind the scenes, sowing discord.’ This was the truth.”

Think about that line of agreement between the students and the government: There are certain forces behind the scenes, sowing discord. In other words, some protesters as well as the government knew what was really happening under the surface. But if things were calming down, what changed? How did violence break out? Kong’s answer to that question was cryptic. “When we were little, we watched movies like Guerrillas Sweep The Plain,” he said.

That answer would have meant nothing to a western audience—but it was clear to many Chinese. This was a reference to a classic 1955 Chinese movie in which there are tensions between two groups. They have disagreements but don’t fight. Suddenly, a hidden third body, the Eighth Army, opens fire at both sides and then quickly hides, triggering bloodshed.

And that is what happened. Soldiers and students were sharing food. But on June 3, mysterious thugs, some of whom were said to be from ethnic minorities, triggered a fight in Mu Xi Di, in the west of the city, attacking army buses with petrol bombs and setting them alight, burning the occupants to death. The perpetrators were never found.

Soldiers who managed to escape the burning buses were beaten to death. Other military men arrived and chaotic fighting broke out, with scores of deaths.

This was five kilometers away from Tiananmen Square.

At the Square, in the early hours of June 4, soldiers arrived and called on students to leave. Student leader Feng Congde worked to gauge protesters’ opinions, and concluded that the majority wanted to vacate the space. “So I announced the decision to leave,” he said. Students left peacefully.

Violence did break out, not in the square, but in the streets around it.

One witness, Larry Wortzel, watched protesters attack a military vehicle and noted how well it was organized—someone had definitely trained them. “This was clearly a tactic rehearsed and even practiced among the demonstrators, since it was used in the same way in separate places around the city,” he wrote.

“All verified eyewitness accounts say that the students who remained in the square when troops arrived were allowed to leave peacefully,” said the Washington Post’s Jay Mathews.

Now this is where it gets strange. The next day, a very different story appeared from a few foreign embassies saying that 10,000 people had been killed. This tale said the students in the square had not left. They had stayed and been massacred with machine guns, their bodies pushed into piles with bulldozers, and then incinerated by troops with flamethrowers. This gruesome horror story, supported by no evidence at all, is now viewed by eastern and western historians as entirely fictional.

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The Turning Point

As I’ve been pointing out for the last few years now, the USA is no longer a global superpower. It’s now been demoted to major regional power, which is very far from nothing, but its pretensions at pursuing elite interests in the name of playing global policeman are observably over:

Last week’s Trump-Xi summit produced no dramatic declaration or historic treaty – yet its importance may prove far greater than any immediate deliverable. What happened in Beijing was not a breakthrough in policy but a breakthrough in recognition: the United States openly acknowledged China as an equal center of global power. That alone marks a historic turning point.

For decades, American administrations approached China from the assumption that Beijing was either a manageable challenger or a state that would eventually integrate into a US-led international order on American terms. The summit suggested something fundamentally different.

US President Donald Trump appeared compelled to recognize that China is no longer simply a rival great power but a central pillar of the emerging world order – one that Washington can neither isolate nor overpower. This was the true message of the summit.

Neither Washington nor Beijing expected immediate breakthroughs. The summit was never realistically supposed to solve structural tensions overnight. Its purpose was to stabilize relations between two powers which are increasingly aware that prolonged escalation has become prohibitively costly. The talks reflected the reality that the US now needs stable engagement with China as much as China needs stable engagement with the US. This mutual dependency is perhaps uncomfortable, but it is also unavoidable – neither full confrontation nor full separation is sustainable anymore.

For years, the Americans described China as a revisionist actor seeking to overturn the international order. But the Beijing summit demonstrated something more consequential: the international order itself is already changing. Many countries have begun treating China not merely as a competitor to the US, but as a parallel – and in some respects superior – center of global gravity.

The post-WWII international order is now over. Clown World is still scrambling to control what it can, but it is in disarray. Which means these will continue to be interesting and tumultuous times.

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Xi’s Delicate Warning

It’s always interesting to see how far ahead of US politicians the Chinese leaders are, particularly President Xi, who is fully cognizant on the discussions of Western intellectuals, while I doubt any US politicians, with the possible exception of JD Vance, have ever heard of Wang Hunin, much less Qiao Liang or Wang Xiangsui

Inside the Great Hall, Xi opened the talks with an ominous reference to the so-called Thucydides Trap, the ancient Greek historian’s account of Athens and Sparta, and the danger when an established power feels threatened by a rising civilization.

‘The world has come to a new crossroads. Can China and the US overcome the Thucydides Trap and create a new paradigm?’ Xi asked Trump across the table.

During their two-hour summit, Xi warned Trump that if Taiwan is ‘mishandled’ the US and China ‘will clash, or even come into conflict, pushing the entire relationship into a very dangerous situation,’ state media channel CCTV reported.

Now, the Thucydides Trap is a bit midwitty these days since it was popularized by Graham Allison in 2015; it’s the sort of history that journalists can understand and recognize, so it makes them feel smart and educated. But it’s not irrelevant, as the Tree of Woe pointed out back in 2021:

Point 10 of Xi Jinping Thought acknowledges that achieving all these other points puts China at risk from those who would prevents its rise (the unstated foe is, of course, the United States). The implacable tendency towards war that occurs anytime a new hegemon arises against an old is called a Thucydides Trap (named for the Greek historian Thucydides and his account of the Peloponnesian War between mighty Sparta and rising Athens). Xi here is codifying the need to prepare for this war to come.

So, it’s interesting that Xi is laying out the problem directly for Trump, as he’s making it very clear that China is the rising power and the USA is the fading one, which directly contradicts all of Trump’s bombastic rhetoric.

The problem, of course, is that there is an X factor involved, which is Clown World. The Thucydides Trap was avoided when the center of power was transferred from London to Washington DC because the same satanic powers remained in control. But Xi prevented the plans for a similar transfer from Washington to Beijing because the Chinese do not wish to be ruled by itinerant devil-worshippers; they had their fill of that following the Mongol invasion, to say nothing of the Century of Humiliation they recently endured at the hands of that very ruling elite.

So, there are two obvious paths, although there may be more. One, the USA accepts China’s rise embraces American nationalism, and throws off Clown World rule. That would be the desirable path, and most likely the one that Xi would support. Two, the USA continues being ridden by Clown World until it expires, defeated and bankrupt, and breaks apart, as I first publicly predicted in 2004.

I think we’ll have a pretty good idea which path has been chosen after Trump returns from China and we see if the USA continues fighting Israel’s war against Iran et al or if it withdraws from the Middle East and allows China to force a peace settlement in Iran’s favor.

UPDATE: Larry Johnson notes the US delegation is receiving second-class treatment. Perhaps because Xi knows he’s not meeting the real Donald Trump.

When Trump arrived in Beijing the plane was met at the airport by China’s Vice Premier and other senior Chinese officials rather than President Xi Jinping himself; U.S. and Chinese diplomatic representatives and an honor guard were also present. This was the same configuration that met Trump in November 2017 during his first trip to China. Compare that to the honors accorded to Vladimir Putin. Xi Jinping personally greeted him on arrival rather than leaving the welcome to lower‑level officials. Reports of Putin’s 2024 and other state visits say Xi received him with full ceremonial honors and met him on arrival in Beijing.

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Two Can Play That Game

China will seize property of corporations that respect US sanctions:

On April 7 and 13, 2026, China’s State Council enacted two new regulations, [Decree No. 834 (Supply Chain Security)] and [Decree No. 835 (Countering Foreign Improper Extraterritorial Jurisdiction)], allowing the seizure of assets from foreign entities deemed to violate China’s anti-sanctions laws or disrupt industrial supply chains.

These regulations, effective immediately, allow for freezing assets, restricting transactions, and visa bans, targeting companies that comply with foreign sanctions against China.

Key Aspects of the New Regulations

Regulations on Countering Foreign Improper Extraterritorial Jurisdiction (Decree No. 835): Focuses on preventing foreign states’ sanctions from being enforced on Chinese entities and allows for lawsuits against those enforcing such measures.

Regulations on the Security of Industrial and Supply Chains (Decree No. 834): Targets “malicious entities” that disrupt Chinese supply chains through unfair restrictions or, for example, complying with US-led, or similar, “de-risking” efforts.

Targeted Measures: Authorities can seize or freeze assets located in China, restrict transactions with Chinese partners, and ban entry to individuals connected to the targeted foreign entities.

Malicious Entity List: A, created list will identify foreign organizations or individuals that act in ways that are deemed harmful to Chinese sovereignty or security.

Context: These measures expand on the 2021 Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law (AFSL), providing a legal framework for retaliation against foreign governments and firms.

These rules increase risk for multinational corporations, particularly those in high-tech sectors, as compliance with foreign sanctions may directly violate Chinese law.

And so the Great Bifurcation continues. Now we get to find out who the real economic big dog is.

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