The Bubble is Popping

The corporate giants are already attempting to brace for impact:

Oracle is seeking to protect itself ​from potential cost increases related ‌to a large data center project in New Mexico by sending a “force ​majeure” notice to developer ​Blue Owl, Bloomberg News reported on ⁠Thursday. Shares of the company fell ​around 4% in premarket trading ​after the report, which cited sources familiar with the matter. Reuters could not ​independently verify it. Oracle is aiming ​to delay payments should the data center ‌dubbed ⁠Project Jupiter get derailed and fail to come online in 2028 as planned, rather than exiting ​as the ​main tenant, ⁠according to the report. Companies typically invoke force majeure ​to free themselves from ​contractual ⁠obligations when problems arise beyond their control. Oracle and Blue Owl ⁠did ​not immediately respond to ​Reuters requests for comment.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that most of those data centers are not necessary. So it’s not going to sustain the economy any longer. And there aren’t a lot of other options for a replacement bubble, except perhaps a real estate boom in Greenland.

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Gas Prices Aren’t High Enough?

It’s almost as if Short Fake Trump wants everyone around the world to hate his administration:

China has condemned the latest expansion of US sanctions against Russia, including potential tariffs of up to 100% on major buyers of Russian energy, vowing to take “all necessary measures” to safeguard its national interests. US President Donald Trump signed the sweeping legislation on Friday. Among other measures, the bill authorizes secondary sanctions against the five largest buyers of Russian crude oil and natural gas. It does not explicitly name major importers such as China or India.

We paid 21 percent more for diesel today than last week. These idiotic wars on Iran and Russia are devastating all the Western economies. And they’re wholly unnecessary; at this point, Americans and Europeans will be demanding that someone give Tehran nuclear weapons just to bring the whole charade to an end.

It’s eminently clear at this point that the “mad mullahs” are more restrained and rational than the Clown Worlders. It’s also clear that whoever may be in the White House, it isn’t Donald Trump.

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The Cost of Taking Sides

The Swiss are being informed that taking sides against a major power on behalf of others is a very expensive proposition when those others lose:

President Vladimir Putin has ordered the Russian subsidiaries of Nestle, Auchan and Leroy Merlin placed under temporary management owing to Western support for Ukrainian strikes on Russian civilian and economic infrastructure.

Moscow introduced the temporary management mechanism in 2023 in response to Western companies leaving Russia and the seizure of Russian state and private assets abroad. Officials said it was intended to keep strategically important businesses operating and shield the economy from decisions by “unfriendly” countries.

On Thursday, Putin amended the 2023 decree to add the Russian assets of Nestle, Auchan and Leroy Merlin to the list. All three were transferred to L.E.V. Management, a business and management consultancy.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the companies’ home countries and their support for Kiev were major factors behind the decision. “We are talking about European companies, companies from unfriendly countries,” he told journalists on Friday. “These are unfriendly countries that are actively involved in military actions against our country,” Peskov said, adding that some also support Ukrainian strikes “against our civilian economic infrastructure.”

The Swiss alarm over why they just lost a fairly significant asset as an inevitable result of their own actions would be amusing if it wasn’t so ominous for the future. There is no such thing as performative belligerence. If you attack a nation’s economy with sanctions, they will punish you for that, sooner or later.

Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, speaking on behalf of the government, said in a statement that it’s “worried” about the seizure of Nestlé’s assets. It’s working with Nestlé “toward the reversal of the compulsory administration,” it said.

Neutrality is what once made Switzerland the wealthiest country in the world. Kowtowing to the United States and the European Union has already cost them dearly and caused the failure of one of their two major banks; one hopes that the Swiss people will keep this in mind and limit the federal government’s disastrous forays into belligerence by strengthening its official neutrality structure in their upcoming vote.

As for the idea that Putin did this in order to influence the constitutional vote, there is no chance that Russia cares one way or another. This is simply a reaction to actions already committed; if the Swiss choose to engage in further foolish provocations and act like an EU puppet province, Russia will continue to treat them like an enemy. I suspect this is the real reason for the seizure:

Bern has also considered easing restrictions on the re-export of Swiss-made weapons to Ukraine.

Which is really not a great idea when Ukraine has already lost the war, NATO has shown itself to be a paper tiger on multiple fronts, and BRICS is rapidly demonstrating that it, and not Clown World, is the economic entity that matters. International diplomacy is not an appropriate venue for virtue-signaling.

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Auditing the AI Giants

Another suggested explanation for Anthropic’s erratic behavior of late:

Anthropic desires to file an S-1, as they would like to go public. Therefore they need an audit. And by “they”, I mean the VC’s who invested in them. So “they” can exit their position and pass the bag to firemen, nurses, teachers and policemen.

How does this go from the VC’s to the working man and woman? Because the size of the IPO will automatically qualify Anthropic for the Fortune 500 and the Dow Jones 100. Therefore, every working person with a 401k or pension will end up owning a little bit of Anthropic in their mutual funds. Teachers hold the bag, VC’s take the cash. Thank you, come again.

Now back to the audit. The audit required is a PCAOB audit, Public Company Accounting Oversight Board. This audit is what all public companies must comply with be on the stock market. Revenue recognition, expense classification, depreciation, related party transactions, etc. It’s there for consumer protection.

This audit is TOUGH. It is INVASIVE. There is no way to lie your way through it. Any company that passes a PCAOB audit automatically earns my trust on finances.

How do I know? Because I’ve been through it before. @ChangRobotics is 2 year PCAOB audited and currently underway for a 3 year audit. It’s brutal. The same as showing up as the valedictorian to your high school graduation, except you’re naked, and you have to walk on stage and deliver the speech. It’s rough. And I know many incredible founders that can’t pass one.

Now, why would Anthropic be leaking all kind of weird statements lately about “self pacing” a slow down on AI (e.g. they are WAY behind on revenue), and profitable if they didn’t have expenses (e.g. we just learned for the first time what our expenses are, because we’re being audited).

Because they were claiming NVIDIA discounts and Microsoft cloud credits as revenue. Because they had no clue what their expenses were, or why it even mattered. Because they had unlimited investor capital and their job was to burn it to make an LLM. Well, they did a great job with that!

That’s the same as my wife coming home with Bed Bath and Beyond coupons and telling me it’s her paycheck. Ummm, not the same, sweetheart.

I also expect that the global economic contraction is playing some kind of role here. Who wants to sink money into a bubble that is quite obviously popping?

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Biologists are Retarded

Mr. Matsumoto clearly groks the fullness of the fundamental problem with biology: biologists are functionally innumerate. They simply aren’t capable, and they have never been capable, of understanding the math that is required for them to make any sense of their own science.

Most of the apparent reasonableness of The Modern Creation Myth rests on people’s inability to understand Size and the scale of the things Science is actually talking about. Once you actually grok it… once numbers stop being simply “Big” and you start to understand how small some “Big” numbers can be in comparison to others…

The whole notion that we evolved from random processes just completely falls apart.

Completely.

Biologists are retarded you see? They don’t understand numbers.

The most unbelievable scene in Project Hail Mary. More so than the talking rock people. I went to grad school. You can’t fool me. There ain’t one microbiologist in the universe who could work out how long it would take a spaceship to get back home from another star. Not one. Biology is for people who want the prestige of calling themselves Scientists but who also found Calculus 1 too hard.

Here. I will state my thesis plainly: Evolution only feels believable to people because, again, above a certain threshold, all large numbers just get filed under “Big” in people’s heads.

That’s it.

Mankind’s inability to conceptualize large numbers is the only reason anyone has ever taken Darwin’s theories seriously. Only reason. You point out to somebody how improbable it is that Life would spontaneously arise from the random fallout of a random explosion and they go “Yes, well, but there was an infinite amount of time for it to happen so…”

And they shrug.

You know, because to them all large numbers are just… “Big”.

But, see, there wasn’t an infinite amount of time for Life to happen.

There actually wasn’t anywhere even close to it.

Current best estimates put the age of the universe at around 14 billion years, which, compared to infinity, might as well be a microsecond. If you understand the actual statistics behind the claim, you understand that even the most generous cosmology gives you nowhere near the amount of time or space necessary to make the formation of even one cell by random chance remotely plausible.

That is a fact.

I’m telling you a mathematical fact.

It can’t happen. The creation of life by random chance could simply never occur.

There is a reason that economists are inordinately inclined to be dubious about evolution. And that reason is this: we comprehend large numbers. For all the flaws of our field, and believe me, they are many, there isn’t a single economist who is impressed by a biologist waving his hand and summoning “millions and billions of years” or dramatically declaring that 600,000 generations is but “an eyeblink” in the context of geological time.

We work in trillions, bitch.

So waving your hand and imagining that the mere evocation of ONE MILLION YEARS allows sufficient time for anything and everything to happen not only doesn’t impress us, it confirms our original impression that you are actually retarded. I mean, when your core argument is, quite literally, an Austin Powers joke about inflation in a 1997 movie, you should probably consider the very high degree of probability that your entire hypothesis is not only ill-founded, but obviously wrong.

Evolution by natural selection never happened because it is mathematically impossible. And if you don’t accept that, it is only because you don’t understand the relevant math.

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How Does the Fed LOSE Money?

The answer is pretty simple. The cost of propping up the system is greater than the profit of printing money out of thin air. After all, even the ability to create money from nothing still has to go through a process, and that process is finite. So, even if you create $200 billion and use it to buy a distressed asset that turns out to have negative value of $50 billion, you just lost $50 billion with your free money.

What this chart suggests is that the Fed is having a hard time keeping everything propped up, a much harder time that it had during the 2008 financial crisis. The AI boom helped mitigate the crisis, but that’s rapidly coming to an end.

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The Corpocracy Isn’t Capitalist

It’s no wonder the younger generations are turning national socialist. That’s the natural reaction to financial rape by a foreign corpocracy:

The average big-company CEO now makes about 281x the typical worker. At some companies it’s in the thousands. Starbucks hit 6,666x last year. Since 1978, CEO pay is up more than 1,000%. Worker pay: 24%. The pain isn’t shared. When Meta cut about 3,600 people it branded “low performers” in early 2025, it raised executive bonus targets from 75% to 200% of salary about a week later.

A generation raised on that arithmetic does not need an economics degree to reach a verdict.

I’m the parent of a Gen Z kid, so I hear the verdict at my own dinner table. Just 17% of Americans told Gallup in 2026 they have real confidence in big business, near a record low. Among adults under 35, nearly half now view socialism favorably. A colleague told me, half-terrified, that her son is becoming a full-blown socialist. I’ve seen what he’s seen: loyalty punished, honesty optional, promises reversed, the gains routed to the top.

When people stop believing their work protects them, they don’t decide one company is bad. They decide the system is rigged. And they go looking for another one. And increasingly, they’re not just looking. They’re leaving. Americans filed a record 5.5 million new business applications in 2023 and have held roughly that pace since, up about 50% from before the pandemic. Nearly four in 10 recent college graduates say they’d rather start a business than climb someone else’s ladder. When a generation stops trusting the deal, they go into business for themselves.

Business leaders keep asking why young workers seem disloyal, disengaged, quick to walk. They have it backward. This generation isn’t refusing to buy in. They were never sold anything worth buying.

Look, we all know that the corpocracy is little more than a collection of devil-worshipping foreign pedophiles who are, at best, mediocrities following orders. No one who spends any time listening to a CEO, a COO, a Wall Street figure, or even a media analyst babble on television in a vain attempt to explain why anything happened or predict anything that will happen knows that these are not brilliant people who succeeded through hard work and intelligence.

Young people are turning nationalist because they’re seeing their own people left unemployed, sexless, and homeless while rapist migrants are being provided homes, phones, and spending money by their own governments. And they’re turning socialist because they see the way the game is legally rigged against them, where corpocracies are breaking laws left and right while bringing in revenue from government contracts, then being bailed out when they manage to somehow fail anyhow, while the kids can’t even declare bankruptcy to get out from the debt incurred from the useless degrees they were pushed to obtain.

When the elites are irresponsible, rapacious, and out of control, as they indubitably are now, the masses quit playing along and no amount of abstract appeals to idealism are going to convince them otherwise.

And whatever this is, it isn’t capitalism or a meritocracy. It’s all fake, gay, and wicked.

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The Exile of an Economist

The Nobel Prize-winning economist Daron Acemoglu is being expelled from the technocratic elite by The Economist itself due to his excessive sympathies for the suffering of the Western working class:

It is worth remembering that Daron Acemoglu is no revolutionary in the classical sense, even within his own discipline. The first book of his to reach my shelves was not an essay but his 2009 textbook Introduction to Modern Economic Growth: a graduate text of formidable algebraic complexity that surveys the models of economic growth from a single vantage point, namely, neoclassical theory. This is the dominant theory in economics faculties, and other schools of thought have historically been ranged against it, such as the post-Keynesian and the Marxist, which are for that reason regarded as heterodox. Acemoglu belongs to the dominant school, and indeed he recently described debate about capitalism as “mindless.” In the worldview underlying his models, there are no relations of production; power enters as a category of bargaining strength and regulatory capture; and the view of institutions is thin and never structural. His concept of the working class is consequently not a Marxist one, but it leads to what he calls “working-class liberalism.”

Yet all this is exactly what makes him genuinely dangerous in the eyes of mainstream economists: Acemoglu reaches his “radical” conclusions from inside the profession and inside the mainstream. His entire academic output is a lucid and algebraically demanding reformulation of the neoclassical models of technical progress. And every step he has taken over the past twenty years, such as treating the division of income between capital and labor as endogenous to technical change, he has taken without drawing on the vast body of heterodox work that trod that path long before him. Acemoglu today holds a view of trade that would not seem strange to Marxist authors, and a view of income distribution that post-Keynesians such as Joan Robinson or Nicholas Kaldor would recognize. And we have already seen that his reading of certain aspects of nineteenth-century economic history has striking points of contact with Marxist historiography. The crucial point is that Acemoglu has arrived at conclusions very close to those of the post-Keynesian and even Marxist schools but through different concepts and methods. Mainstream economists cannot fault him for want of technical brilliance, which is amply established. But they are frightened by the political conclusions that follow from his deviation.

The maneuver had already been rehearsed with Joseph Stiglitz. The US economist received the Nobel Prize in 2001 for his contributions to neoclassical theory, in particular his analyses of asymmetric information, and during the 1990s he was known, among other things, for his critique of the hard version of ecological economics. All of this made him chief economist of the World Bank, one of the institutions charged with promoting the “Washington Consensus” among developing countries — that is, with imposing neoliberal policies. Before his term was up, Stiglitz left his post, and in 2002 he published Globalization and Its Discontents, in which he called much of neoliberal policy into question. It was a harsh diagnosis, and one that those of us who were then postgraduate students of international and development economics always found instructive: a neoclassical economist attacking the conclusions of his own old paradigm. As now, The Economist was the spearhead against what struck it as an inadmissible turn, remarking drily that Stiglitz could have written a good book about globalization, but perhaps next time, and conceding that he was a brilliant economist before proceeding to demolish his standing altogether. Nor was it the only example: Kenneth Rogoff, then director of research at the International Monetary Fund (the other neoliberal pillar of the international system), attacked Stiglitz fiercely and entrenched what became the settled view among mainstream economists that as a scholar Stiglitz was a genius with a wonderful mind, but as a politician he was far less impressive. It is the clearest precedent for The Economist’s article on Daron Acemoglu.

What we can expect over the coming years is a concerted effort, led by part of the mainstream community of which The Economist is merely the vanguard, to devalue Acemoglu’s reputation, not so much on technical grounds as on account of his political “eccentricities.” As we have seen, this is not the first case and probably will not be the last, but the underlying logic has been in place for a very long time. The aura of respectability within the mainstream economics community depends both on technical foundations (with a high degree of mathematical sophistication, which makes the work largely inaccessible to the general public) and on the “reasonableness” of one’s political conclusions. It is worth recalling that the Nobel Prize in economics is not really a Nobel Prize at all, since Alfred Nobel never envisaged such an award for economics. That such a prize exists today is the result of the interests of the Swedish central bank, which in 1968, amid a bitter confrontation with the Swedish Social Democrats (then pursuing their reformist road to socialism), needed to burnish the reputation of those who defended its own (conservative) political positions. The great Swedish economist Gunnar Myrdal received the prize in 1974; but his own reading of the episode was that, because he was a “radical” (his word), they made him share it with a “reactionary,” Friedrich Hayek. In 1977, Myrdal wrote a short article acknowledging that he had been wrong to accept it, that economics is not a science on a par with physics or the “hard” sciences and — take note — that the Nobel Prize in economics ought not to exist. What he was ultimately suggesting is that the award is heavily burdened with political values and principles.

All of the nonsense about Left and Right is irrelevant. Even economics, as a distinct science, is nothing more than a public relations pawn in the great battle between the predators and those who would protect the prey.

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The Great Bifurcation Advances

The Chinese Supreme Court has made it clear that China is now forcing corporations to choose between respecting US sanctions or respecting their existing contracts with Chinese businesses:

China’s top court recently highlighted the first judicial ruling establishing the mandatory nature of its Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law, which experts say could provide legal precedent and guide Chinese companies facing increasingly frequent overseas sanctions amid intensifying geopolitical tensions.

The case, heard by the Shanghai Maritime Court, centred on a dispute that involved US sanctions, a Singapore shipping company, a Hong Kong-based company and electronic goods shipped from Shanghai. In 2022, the Hong Kong-based company hired a Singaporean shipping firm to transport electronic goods from Shanghai to Panama, but the Singaporean firm later refused to deliver them and eventually returned the cargo to Shanghai, citing the Hong Kong company’s inclusion on a United States sanctions list. That caused losses for the Hong Kong company.

A court judgment unveiled last month showed the Shanghai court ruled against the Singaporean firm in February, ordering it to pay more than 4.99 million yuan (US$739,600) in damages plus interest and holding that it could not use a foreign country’s “discriminatory restrictions” as a defence under Article 12 of China’s Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law.

The case was included in a selection of illustrative maritime cases by the Supreme People’s Court that was released in June. In its commentary on the selection, the top court said the case was “the first judicial ruling to explicitly establish the mandatory application of the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law”. It added that the case carried “strong exemplary significance” in demonstrating how China’s maritime courts implement the Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law – which took effect in 2021 – and safeguard the stability of supply and industrial chains.

Given the size of the Chinese market and the growing power of its economy, it’s pretty obvious which side most Asian corporations are going to take. What will be interesting is to see how many Japanese and European corporations also choose China.

Regardless, the failure of sanctions with regards to both Russia and Iran now demonstrate that it’s a weapon that harms the wielder more than it does the target.

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The War on US Farmers

The utter idiocy of participating in Israel’s war on Iran is being driven home hard in the negative effects on America’s ability to feed itself:

US grain farmers have been plunged into their worst financial crisis in four decades as the war with Iran drives up diesel and fertilizer costs, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday. The latest price shock compounds years of weak crop prices and falling incomes.

The mounting pressure follows the US-Israeli attack on Iran in February, which prompted Tehran to largely block commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route that previously served about a fifth of the world’s energy supplies. The resulting surge in energy costs is hitting the US heartland ahead of November’s midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress.

Farmers across the Corn Belt have been particularly hard hit by soaring diesel and crop nutrient prices since the military campaign began, the FT reported. Nebraska Farmers Union president John Hansen described the downturn as the sector’s worst since the 1980s.

”Inputs are way out of whack,” Nebraska corn and soybean farmer Matt Bailey told the newspaper. He said a phosphorus-rich fertilizer used at planting now costs more than $900 per ton, compared with about $470 a decade ago. Diesel prices have also surged after the conflict disrupted energy markets and sharply reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The nationwide average has climbed to about $5.45 per gallon from $3.81 before the war, according to US Energy Information Administration data.

”The [Iran] war has made so much uncertainty for us as farmers,” Pam Johnson, a former president of the National Corn Growers Association, told the FT. “It’s projected that farmers aren’t going to make any money for the next two years.”

And this is before the financial crisis hits this fall. This is why the real America sought to avoid foreign entanglements and restricted immigration for decades after the 1920s; foreigners with influence always seek to use other nations’ more powerful militaries for their own purposes and on their own behalf. And this is almost always to the detriment of the people of those nations.

We all know the retarded rhetoric about how “X is crazy!” and “X cannot be permitted to obtain a nuclear weapon”. Not one single American is going to give a damn about the rhetoric when gasoline costs $10 per gallon and they can’t afford to feed their families.

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