Tag: economics

Immigration is Disastrous for the Economy

These examples are from Denmark and Japan, but they are true pretty much everywhere.

Denmark actually did the math on mass migration, and the results are brutal

Their Ministry of Finance counted every tax paid and every public expense for every resident, broken down by where they came from and how old they are

Immigrants from the Middle East, North Africa, Pakistan and Turkey cost the state about $11,000 PER PERSON every single year. Western immigrants pay in about $7,800 more than they take

The first group is a net cost at EVERY age of their life

“The economy needs migration” is one of the biggest lies ever sold to the West

Note that the descendants of immigrants are even worse than the immigrants themselves.

And Japan, which supposedly so desperately “needs immigrants” in order to support its pension plan, quite clearly doesn’t.


Only 55.0 percent of foreign residents in Japan paid into the country’s national pension in fiscal 2023, lagging behind the overall rate of 85.6 percent, according to recent health ministry data. All residents aged 20 to 59 are required to pay into the country’s pension scheme regardless of nationality. 

They’re not going to fix their inverted pension scheme by importing a bunch of people who aren’t going to pay into it.

“Immigration is good for the economy” is almost certainly one of the biggest lies of the 20th century. Neither the logic nor the evidence supports it, and yet people are still repeating it mindlessly ad infinitum.

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So the Immigration Didn’t Help?

Mercedes-Benz to halt ‘all future investments’ in Germany.

Imagine that. I’ve spoken first-hand to German manufacturers. They said it’s almost impossible to get anything done in a reasonable period of time with as many as 12 different languages being spoken on the plant floor.

And, of course, none of the immigrants happen to have a German work ethic, for the rather obvious reason that they’re not German. There is no magic dirt.

Everything is cyclical. When the National Socialists return, and either they or some reasonable facsimile most likely will, this is why, and this is why they will be welcomed.

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The Cracking Pillars of the Petrodollar

I wouldn’t be even remotely surprised if the government of Saudi Arabia collapses before 2030.

Saudi Arabia’s terrified Crown Prince has been forced into hiding as Houthi rebels continue to hit Riyadh with deadly missile strikes, a report has claimed. Mohammed bin Salman, 41, has for the past six days been moving between heavily guarded palaces with bunkers, according to officials.

On Saturday, the Kingdom was struck by its deadliest attack in a decade when a projectile hit King Khalid International Airport, killing 13 and injuring hundreds. The Saudi capital’s airport was struck again yesterday, leaving one dead and 11 injured.

After this serious escalation in the war between the Saudi-led coalition government and Iran-backed Houthi fighters, Donald Trump warned the US could intervene.

How is the US going to intervene? The US military can’t do a damn thing to stop missile strikes; it has already been driven from 18 military bases in the Gulf. Perhaps if laser air-defense systems can be developed rapidly, something can be done at some point in the future, but as it stands, even a small, impoverished missile-equipped force can deal out more damage to a wealthy, well-equipped military than it can stand.

Now it should be very clear why the Russians have been proceeding so slowly, and cautiously, in their slow advance across Ukraine. In doing so, they have successfully neutralized the punishment that the US bases took in the Gulf and which Saudi Arabia is just beginning to be subjected.

The Arab governments are not real nations. They are artificial constructs imposed upon various Arab tribes by their former French and British occupiers. As such, they are considerably more fragile than most people commonly suppose. And given their role in maintaining the petrodollar, it is not in the interest of China, Russia, Iran, or any of the BRICS states to protect them.

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Watering the Desert

The EU is getting desperate. They burned down their economies and enraged their native populations for less than nothing:

“It feels like we’re watering the desert,” one of the European diplomats told Le Monde.

The article notes that Ukraine’s request for additional funding comes at a “delicate political moment” when the EU is focused on negotiations on the multi-year budget of the union. Despite the fact that the budget provides for a €100 billion aid package for Ukraine for 2028-2034, Germany and its supporters want to reduce this amount.

The situation is also influenced by the fact that in 2027 a series of elections is planned in the member countries of the bloc – in France, Spain, Poland and Italy, where, according to Le Monde, the topic of financing Ukraine is “particularly sensitive.” European governments are facing severe internal pressure. The local population is less and less ready to “tighten their belts” for the sake of sponsoring Ukraine.

Europeans never wanted to finance a war against Russia. They were happy to cheer on the USA and UK doing so, but they never expected to finance it, let alone fight one themselves. And now the economic collapse due to energy prices is already underway.

The problems that European countries are facing now are so critical that Europe is being “eaten alive,” US President Donald Trump told his supporters in Texas. “Look at what’s happened to Europe. They are being eaten alive,” he said. Europe is going through a major energy crisis. AFP reported, citing EU statistics, that October 1 saw the highest diesel fuel price in the European Union, reaching 2.24 euros per liter on average.

That’s $8.50 per gallon. That’s not sustainable. Fortunately, there is an easy solution. Wave the white flag, stop funding the Kiev regime, rebuild the Nordstream pipeline, and start buying Russian gas again. That’s going to happen, sooner or later, so the smart thing to do is end the economic torment before the popular revolutions begin.

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The Bubble is Popping

The corporate giants are already attempting to brace for impact:

Oracle is seeking to protect itself ​from potential cost increases related ‌to a large data center project in New Mexico by sending a “force ​majeure” notice to developer ​Blue Owl, Bloomberg News reported on ⁠Thursday. Shares of the company fell ​around 4% in premarket trading ​after the report, which cited sources familiar with the matter. Reuters could not ​independently verify it. Oracle is aiming ​to delay payments should the data center ‌dubbed ⁠Project Jupiter get derailed and fail to come online in 2028 as planned, rather than exiting ​as the ​main tenant, ⁠according to the report. Companies typically invoke force majeure ​to free themselves from ​contractual ⁠obligations when problems arise beyond their control. Oracle and Blue Owl ⁠did ​not immediately respond to ​Reuters requests for comment.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that most of those data centers are not necessary. So it’s not going to sustain the economy any longer. And there aren’t a lot of other options for a replacement bubble, except perhaps a real estate boom in Greenland.

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Gas Prices Aren’t High Enough?

It’s almost as if Short Fake Trump wants everyone around the world to hate his administration:

China has condemned the latest expansion of US sanctions against Russia, including potential tariffs of up to 100% on major buyers of Russian energy, vowing to take “all necessary measures” to safeguard its national interests. US President Donald Trump signed the sweeping legislation on Friday. Among other measures, the bill authorizes secondary sanctions against the five largest buyers of Russian crude oil and natural gas. It does not explicitly name major importers such as China or India.

We paid 21 percent more for diesel today than last week. These idiotic wars on Iran and Russia are devastating all the Western economies. And they’re wholly unnecessary; at this point, Americans and Europeans will be demanding that someone give Tehran nuclear weapons just to bring the whole charade to an end.

It’s eminently clear at this point that the “mad mullahs” are more restrained and rational than the Clown Worlders. It’s also clear that whoever may be in the White House, it isn’t Donald Trump.

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The Cost of Taking Sides

The Swiss are being informed that taking sides against a major power on behalf of others is a very expensive proposition when those others lose:

President Vladimir Putin has ordered the Russian subsidiaries of Nestle, Auchan and Leroy Merlin placed under temporary management owing to Western support for Ukrainian strikes on Russian civilian and economic infrastructure.

Moscow introduced the temporary management mechanism in 2023 in response to Western companies leaving Russia and the seizure of Russian state and private assets abroad. Officials said it was intended to keep strategically important businesses operating and shield the economy from decisions by “unfriendly” countries.

On Thursday, Putin amended the 2023 decree to add the Russian assets of Nestle, Auchan and Leroy Merlin to the list. All three were transferred to L.E.V. Management, a business and management consultancy.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the companies’ home countries and their support for Kiev were major factors behind the decision. “We are talking about European companies, companies from unfriendly countries,” he told journalists on Friday. “These are unfriendly countries that are actively involved in military actions against our country,” Peskov said, adding that some also support Ukrainian strikes “against our civilian economic infrastructure.”

The Swiss alarm over why they just lost a fairly significant asset as an inevitable result of their own actions would be amusing if it wasn’t so ominous for the future. There is no such thing as performative belligerence. If you attack a nation’s economy with sanctions, they will punish you for that, sooner or later.

Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, speaking on behalf of the government, said in a statement that it’s “worried” about the seizure of Nestlé’s assets. It’s working with Nestlé “toward the reversal of the compulsory administration,” it said.

Neutrality is what once made Switzerland the wealthiest country in the world. Kowtowing to the United States and the European Union has already cost them dearly and caused the failure of one of their two major banks; one hopes that the Swiss people will keep this in mind and limit the federal government’s disastrous forays into belligerence by strengthening its official neutrality structure in their upcoming vote.

As for the idea that Putin did this in order to influence the constitutional vote, there is no chance that Russia cares one way or another. This is simply a reaction to actions already committed; if the Swiss choose to engage in further foolish provocations and act like an EU puppet province, Russia will continue to treat them like an enemy. I suspect this is the real reason for the seizure:

Bern has also considered easing restrictions on the re-export of Swiss-made weapons to Ukraine.

Which is really not a great idea when Ukraine has already lost the war, NATO has shown itself to be a paper tiger on multiple fronts, and BRICS is rapidly demonstrating that it, and not Clown World, is the economic entity that matters. International diplomacy is not an appropriate venue for virtue-signaling.

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Auditing the AI Giants

Another suggested explanation for Anthropic’s erratic behavior of late:

Anthropic desires to file an S-1, as they would like to go public. Therefore they need an audit. And by “they”, I mean the VC’s who invested in them. So “they” can exit their position and pass the bag to firemen, nurses, teachers and policemen.

How does this go from the VC’s to the working man and woman? Because the size of the IPO will automatically qualify Anthropic for the Fortune 500 and the Dow Jones 100. Therefore, every working person with a 401k or pension will end up owning a little bit of Anthropic in their mutual funds. Teachers hold the bag, VC’s take the cash. Thank you, come again.

Now back to the audit. The audit required is a PCAOB audit, Public Company Accounting Oversight Board. This audit is what all public companies must comply with be on the stock market. Revenue recognition, expense classification, depreciation, related party transactions, etc. It’s there for consumer protection.

This audit is TOUGH. It is INVASIVE. There is no way to lie your way through it. Any company that passes a PCAOB audit automatically earns my trust on finances.

How do I know? Because I’ve been through it before. @ChangRobotics is 2 year PCAOB audited and currently underway for a 3 year audit. It’s brutal. The same as showing up as the valedictorian to your high school graduation, except you’re naked, and you have to walk on stage and deliver the speech. It’s rough. And I know many incredible founders that can’t pass one.

Now, why would Anthropic be leaking all kind of weird statements lately about “self pacing” a slow down on AI (e.g. they are WAY behind on revenue), and profitable if they didn’t have expenses (e.g. we just learned for the first time what our expenses are, because we’re being audited).

Because they were claiming NVIDIA discounts and Microsoft cloud credits as revenue. Because they had no clue what their expenses were, or why it even mattered. Because they had unlimited investor capital and their job was to burn it to make an LLM. Well, they did a great job with that!

That’s the same as my wife coming home with Bed Bath and Beyond coupons and telling me it’s her paycheck. Ummm, not the same, sweetheart.

I also expect that the global economic contraction is playing some kind of role here. Who wants to sink money into a bubble that is quite obviously popping?

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Biologists are Retarded

Mr. Matsumoto clearly groks the fullness of the fundamental problem with biology: biologists are functionally innumerate. They simply aren’t capable, and they have never been capable, of understanding the math that is required for them to make any sense of their own science.

Most of the apparent reasonableness of The Modern Creation Myth rests on people’s inability to understand Size and the scale of the things Science is actually talking about. Once you actually grok it… once numbers stop being simply “Big” and you start to understand how small some “Big” numbers can be in comparison to others…

The whole notion that we evolved from random processes just completely falls apart.

Completely.

Biologists are retarded you see? They don’t understand numbers.

The most unbelievable scene in Project Hail Mary. More so than the talking rock people. I went to grad school. You can’t fool me. There ain’t one microbiologist in the universe who could work out how long it would take a spaceship to get back home from another star. Not one. Biology is for people who want the prestige of calling themselves Scientists but who also found Calculus 1 too hard.

Here. I will state my thesis plainly: Evolution only feels believable to people because, again, above a certain threshold, all large numbers just get filed under “Big” in people’s heads.

That’s it.

Mankind’s inability to conceptualize large numbers is the only reason anyone has ever taken Darwin’s theories seriously. Only reason. You point out to somebody how improbable it is that Life would spontaneously arise from the random fallout of a random explosion and they go “Yes, well, but there was an infinite amount of time for it to happen so…”

And they shrug.

You know, because to them all large numbers are just… “Big”.

But, see, there wasn’t an infinite amount of time for Life to happen.

There actually wasn’t anywhere even close to it.

Current best estimates put the age of the universe at around 14 billion years, which, compared to infinity, might as well be a microsecond. If you understand the actual statistics behind the claim, you understand that even the most generous cosmology gives you nowhere near the amount of time or space necessary to make the formation of even one cell by random chance remotely plausible.

That is a fact.

I’m telling you a mathematical fact.

It can’t happen. The creation of life by random chance could simply never occur.

There is a reason that economists are inordinately inclined to be dubious about evolution. And that reason is this: we comprehend large numbers. For all the flaws of our field, and believe me, they are many, there isn’t a single economist who is impressed by a biologist waving his hand and summoning “millions and billions of years” or dramatically declaring that 600,000 generations is but “an eyeblink” in the context of geological time.

We work in trillions, bitch.

So waving your hand and imagining that the mere evocation of ONE MILLION YEARS allows sufficient time for anything and everything to happen not only doesn’t impress us, it confirms our original impression that you are actually retarded. I mean, when your core argument is, quite literally, an Austin Powers joke about inflation in a 1997 movie, you should probably consider the very high degree of probability that your entire hypothesis is not only ill-founded, but obviously wrong.

Evolution by natural selection never happened because it is mathematically impossible. And if you don’t accept that, it is only because you don’t understand the relevant math.

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How Does the Fed LOSE Money?

The answer is pretty simple. The cost of propping up the system is greater than the profit of printing money out of thin air. After all, even the ability to create money from nothing still has to go through a process, and that process is finite. So, even if you create $200 billion and use it to buy a distressed asset that turns out to have negative value of $50 billion, you just lost $50 billion with your free money.

What this chart suggests is that the Fed is having a hard time keeping everything propped up, a much harder time that it had during the 2008 financial crisis. The AI boom helped mitigate the crisis, but that’s rapidly coming to an end.

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