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Why Iran Won’t Strike Back

Simplicius believes that Iran will not retaliate by attacking Israel with anything more than symbolic gestures:

Israel is at a crossroads, which I have described before: the country is in a downward spiral and has only one remaining chance to seize history to secure its survival. Why? The reasons are almost too long to list in this one brief article alone, but they include demographics, as well as the decline of Zionism and rise of “noticing” in the West which means in a generation or two, support for Israel may dwindle to the point where it will be engulfed by regional enemies.

The other major reason: nascent technologies have created parity between Israel and its foes, where groups like Hamas and Hezbollah can use cheap but highly technologically effective weapons to deal accurate, disabling damage to Israel’s most critical and sensitive infrastructure. The same goes for Iran: the country has come of age and mastered rocketry and newfangled drone warfare to the point where the numbers simply do not work in Israel’s favor in any future war.

Israel once had the backing of the world’s most dominant ‘superpower’ alliance of Western nations, now the tides of history have simply shifted against Israel’s favor.

Now there are reports Iran may “declare war” on Israel. I remain skeptical for the following reason: Iran has no true overriding capability to fully ‘submit’ Israel into a state of debellatio. Israel has the nukes, and presumably, Iran as of yet does not. No amount of conventional missiles could make Israel simply surrender, and as such a declaration of war has no real meaning. Neither do the two countries share a border so it’s not like Iranian troops can somehow flood Israel to capture its capital.

Any overwhelming attack that could critically wound Israel may provoke an Israeli nuclear response—further proving Iran does not have the escalatory advantage or trump card. That is like Ukraine “declaring war” on Russia—what possible meaning would that have? Ukraine does not have the escalatory dominance to ever ‘submit’ Russia in any way, and the only objective of true ‘war’ is just that—total victory and the subjugation of the adversary. Thus, I see no logical way war can be declared, unless Iran did finally secretly hatch that bomb and is ready to use it. The only other possibility is for PR reasons to satisfy the demands of the angry populace, before declaring victory after some arbitrary objectives have been carried out via a series of strikes, and calling it a day.

I think his analysis is perspicacious. The attack on Iran is far from devastating, and the loss of a few Boomers in charge is hardly debilitating or even necessarily unwelcome to their younger successors. There were not Israeli jets flying over Tehran as if it were Lebanon; the attack mostly consisted of missiles launched from well outside Iranian airspace combined with a secret drone attack from within Iran that suspiciously resembles the recent attack by the Kiev regime on Russian airfields.

And, as Simplicius pointed out, at present, Iran’s ability to defeat Israel is nearly as impossible as Israel’s ability to defeat Iran.

But as with China vis-a-vis the USA and Russia vis-a-vis NATO, time is on Iran’s side. Israel didn’t attack Iran yesterday out of a position of strength, but rather, weakness and desperation. It attacked Iran while it still can, while it still has enough of a technological and operational advantage to do so.

Therefore, it would probably be wise for Iran to settle for a few symbolic missile and drone launches before following the lead of its Chinese and Russian partners in simply waiting for the US support that sustains Israel to collapse, as it is already in the process of doing.

Of course, the fact that this makes long-term strategic sense doesn’t mean that events will proceed accordingly. But given the restraint shown by Iran on previous occasions, I think Simplicius is correct to anticipate that similar restraint will be shown here.

An analysis of the effectiveness of the Israeli strike, which makes it sound as if the initial reports were highly exaggerated, and therefore makes it even more likely that any Iranian response will be symbolic.

An Israeli attempt to decapitate the Iranian military leadership also appears to have largely failed, with only one reasonably confirmed senior casualty at this time – GEN Salami, commander of the IRGC since 2019. I’ve seen a report that he was quite ill and thus remained in his home unlike the rest of the Iranian senior leadership. Recall that Khamenei was taken to a secure location some time ago, so it’s not like the Iranians didn’t have warning or were complacent about getting into shelter. Two or three people connected to the Iranian nuclear program also seem to have been assassinated, but in real terms this isn’t going to affect a program that is already largely – if not entirely – complete.

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Israel’s Satanic Elite Revealed

Christian Zionists have been greatly deceived, if the reports coming out of the Israeli media about at least an influential subset of the Israeli elite are true.

The story broke with an investigative report published by Israel Hayom, which unearthed a long-standing pattern of ritual sexual abuse, psychological manipulation, and spiritual desecration occurring not on the margins of society but from within its most sacred institutions. Survivors speak of torment that begins in early childhood and lasts decades, often committed under the guise of religious observance.

Israeli children, some as young as infants, were subjected to methodical abuse masked in religious ritual. Survivors describe ceremonies invoking biblically-vilified deities, conducted by members of observant Jewish communities. As a survivor named Noga recalled: “The gods I remember are Baal Peor and Ashtoreth… our lord Peor and our lady Ashtoreth.”

 More than ten women between the ages of 20-45 with whom we spoke describe a severe phenomenon raising serious concern that in Israel, like many countries worldwide, organized sexual abuse of children is occurring right under everyone’s nose.

The culprits are not fringe radicals. These are individuals who keep kosher, celebrate the Sabbath, and adhere to the minutiae of Jewish law even as they engage in acts so depraved that they defy comprehension. Some of these perpetrators are qualified to blow the shofar on Rosh Hashanah — a high privilege among observant Jews. Family members, most of whom may have once been victims themselves, are often the ones who hand over their little ones to these monsters.

Several rabbis’ names appeared repeatedly in survivor testimonies. Multiple complaints filed at different police stations across Israel were quickly nipped in the bud. According to the Jerusalem Post, which followed up on the Hayom report, “doctors, educators, police officers, and past and present members of the Knesset were involved in these abuses.”

The police have known about this for a year, but they don’t have the tools to deal with it. The people who will fall are very, very senior figures. These people run communities and government agencies. They threaten us. 

Sounds familiar, doesn’t it. And these are also the same people who are pulling the strings in the Kiev regime, the European Commission, the US Congress, and apparently, the Trump administration right now. Because the Kiev elite, the EU elite, the UK elite, the US elite, and the Israeli elite are one and the same. They all worship the same satanic gods in the same abhorrent way as their predecessors in Technochtitlan and other historical centers of horror.

It’s the group that George Bush named “the New World Order”, Vladimir Putin described as “the Empire of Lies”, and Philip K. Dick called “The Empire That Never Ended”. We call it Clown World. And it is these elites, not the people of the nations over which they rule, who are the genuine bad guys. Pretty much every other major conflict, including both Ukraine and Iran, is a distraction that Clown World utilizes to weaken their enemies and protect themselves from being targeted.

I wonder if it might be these recent revelations, and not the Iranian nuclear program, that is behind the timing of yesterday’s Israeli attack on Iran. Because it was going to be very difficult to hide behind the usual shields of antisemitism and Holocaustianity when it is the Israeli media reporting on the crimes and all of the victims are Jews.

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Israel Attacks Iran

“Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region. Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self-defense. President Trump and the Administration have taken all necessary steps to protect our forces and remain in close contact with our regional partners. Let me be clear: Iran should not target U.S. interests or personnel.” – Marco Rubio, US Secretary of State

Since Hal Turner was spot-on about this one, I’ll quote him on the breaking news.

  • Multiple reports from several countries are saying “hundreds” of fighter jets and drones are in the air over differing parts of Iraq, heading into Iran to attack – right now: 8:13 PM EDT 12-June-2025
  • Massive explosions reported all over Tehran. Israel may be going for a leadership decapitation strike.
  • Netanyahu’s motorcade has entered the Mossad command bunker.
  • Israeli army radio (GLZ) confirms IAF strikes targeting Iran
  • Initial reports of explosions at Natanz and Fordow in Iran. These are the main nuclear facilities.
  • Doron Kaddish (IDF Radio): Senior officials tell me that Israel is preparing for multiple days of combat with Iran.
  • Operation Name: Nation of Lions

However, Larry Johnson reported prior to the attack that the US would be directly involved in it.

Donald Trump apparently has decided to attack Iran. Mark this date. It is the beginning of the end of the Trump Presidency. Trump has been persuaded that the Iranian air defense is weak and that a US bombing run will eliminate any chance that Iran can build a nuclear device. He has been a victim of lies. He will shortly discover, if these attacks take place, that Iran retains a significant capability to shoot down US aircraft. In fact, I fully expect Iran will capture and put on display several US air force officers in the next week.

Simplicius is dubious that Israel or the USA can even reach the nuclear sites that Israel is seeking to destroy: In short, Iran’s underground nuclear infrastructure is now too deep, too complex, and too protected to be taken out militarily.

My take is that Israel is going it alone with the expectation that if Iran hammers them hard enough and looks like it is winning, AIPAC will be able to exert enough pressure on President Trump to force the US military to intervene and rescue them from the consequences of their own actions.

UPDATE: It appears that Israel was successful with its targeted assassinations and that Secretary of State Rubio lied because the USA was definitely involved. It also appears that Iran is likely to declare war on Israel and be supported by North Korea, Russia, and presumably, China.

  •  Iran is beginning to report the names of the senior officials who have been killed so far: 
    • Salami Hussein – Chief of Staff of the IRGC
    • Sardar Rashid – Very Senior Commander in the IRGC.
    • Dr. Feridon Abbas – Senior Nuclear Scientist.
    • Dr. Tehranchi – Senior Nuclear Scientist.
    • Gholam-Ali Rashid, commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya organization
  • Mossad head Dadi Barnea and Minister Ron Dermer did not fly to Washington. The briefing by an Israeli official as if they were supposed to meet Steve Witkoff before the sixth round of talks was part of the deception.  
  • North Korea will provide military support to Iran.
  • “CENTCOM is on high alert, the US will defend itself and Israel if Iran retaliates,” Trump said, according to Fox News.

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NATO is Dead

No one is willing to die to defend modern Europe, especially in the aftermath of the mass invasion by the Third World:

Ukraine’s former foreign minister has starkly warned that British mothers must accept their sons have to die defending Europe, otherwise there is no Nato. Dmytro Kuleba told Metro that Vladimir Putin’s goal was to ‘expose’ the ‘falsehood’ of the Nato alliance, which has a mutual assistance clause that compels its members to fight for each other in the event of an attack of another member.

He said: ‘Putin may invade Nato territory soon – so now what? Is Nato going to send a division to fight back? ‘Many people believe that the real test for Nato is whether the US is going to fight for Europe. The real test will be whether British mothers will actually accept that their sons have to die for Finland or Estonia or Poland. If they don’t, there is no Nato.’

The chilling warning comes after Germany’s spy chief warned that Putin is plotting to attack a Nato territory to test the bloc’s mutual assistance clause.

I doubt there is a single British mother who is willing to accept that her son has to die to defend Finland, Estonia, or Poland. Certainly no American mothers are. The time to defend Europe was when Germany first started importing Gastarbeitern from Turkey. Why would anyone die to defend Europe from Russians when they weren’t even allowed to protest the invasion by Africans and Arabs?

If that is the metric, NATO is already dead.

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Is Israel Rolling the Dice Again

The US government appears to be bracing for another Israeli attack on Iran:

The US has begun evacuating non-essential personnel and family members from its embassies and military bases in the Middle East in light of escalating tensions with Iran. The move follows President Donald Trump’s accusation that Tehran is “slow-walking” negotiations.

“Based on our latest analysis, we decided to reduce the footprint of our Mission in Iraq,” the State Department said in an emailed statement to the media on Wednesday. Reuters cited a US official as saying that voluntary departures had also been authorized at the embassies in Kuwait and Bahrain.

The Pentagon has likewise approved the departure of family members from military installations in the region. “CENTCOM is working in close coordination with our Department of State counterparts, as well as our allies and partners in the region, to maintain a constant state of readiness to support any number of missions around the world at any time,” a defense official told reporters.

According to the Washington Post, American intelligence officials are concerned that Israel may strike Iranian nuclear facilities without US consent.

Well, Netanyahu has gotten away with invading Gaza and committing any number of atrocities there and managed to remove the Assad regime from Syria. So, it’s probably to be expected that the more aggressive elements of the Israeli government are in the ascendance and thinking that a) it’s not going to get any easier over time, b) they’ve gotten away with everything so far, and c) it’s easier to get forgiveness than permission.

I expect they’re also counting on their Israeli-flag-waving senators and congressmen to pressure the US military to bail them out if they get in over their heads with Iran. That’s the only part of their projected analysis with which I disagree, because I’m fairly certain that both the Israelis and the US politicians are significantly overestimating the Israeli-US capabilities vis-a-vis the Iranian-Russian-Chinese capabilities. We’ve seen that with regards to Ukraine, NATO, and Russia, we’ve seen it with regards to Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and the Red Sea, and so it would be a surprise if it wasn’t happening again.

Underestimation of enemy forces and capabilities is absolutely normal in wartime. It’s observable going back to Athens and the failed Sicilian Expedition. Which is why the first question you should ask yourself whenever looking at a military conflict is this: which side appears to be overestimating its own capabilities and/or underestimating the capabilities of its enemy?

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Dialectic > Rhetoric

The very best rhetoric is when it aligns perfectly with the dialectical truth.

That’s the sort of thing that the acronym BTFO was invented for. But it’s nice that Rep. Jordan helped underline why Conservative Inc. is suddenly pushing for NET ZERO IMMIGRATION and no more legal or illegal immigrants from THE THIRD WORLD.

That sound you heard was the Overton Window shifting. Not nearly far enough, of course, but it has moved substantially.

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A Clue to the Next Phase

An interview with a retired Russian general may provide us with a clear sign that the next major Russian offensive is about to begin:

I interviewed retired Lt. General Evgeny Buzhinsky, who served in the International Treaty Department of the Main Directorate of International Military Cooperation of the Russian Ministry of Defense. I asked him specifically about the importance, or lack thereof, of the Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian airfields that host some of Russia’s strategic bombers. He said that people should not read too much into his public silence on the matter because Putin viewed this act as a betrayal by London and Washington of the New Start Agreement. The General specifically said, “Putin was furious.” The General went on to say that this moment marked the closest that the United States and Russia have come to the brink of nuclear war since the Cuban missile crisis.

I talking to the General I also gleaned some other important insights into Russia’s military strategy. When I asked, “Why hasn’t Russia destroyed the bridges over the Dnieper River, which would cutoff the Ukrainian army from its vital logistics needs?” he laughed and said, “I have wondered that myself.”

But then he went on to explain what he believed was the reason. “If Russia had destroyed the bridges early on in the Special Military Operation, it would have left the bulk of Ukraine’s army intact on the west side of the river.” So, now? Destroying the bridges may now make sense. It will cut off what is left of Ukraine’s army and facilitate Russia gaining control of all of Eastern Ukraine.

We already know that Russia is intending to escalate and its forces have already entered two of the five additional provinces it intends to acquire, Sumy and Dnepropetrovsk. But it hasn’t yet begun the sort of Zhukovesque mass offensive that is intended to make the entire enemy front collapse for which the UFA appears to be primed.

If Gen. Buzhinsky’s observations are correct, then we can expect mass missile strikes taking down the bridges over the Dnieper to take place if and when any large scale summer offensive is about to be launched. At that point, everything east of the river will be transformed into one massive cauldron that will probably result in the largest mass surrender of military forces since WWII.

Now, the Russians could clearly continue their strategy of constantly nibbling away at the front lines and gradually accomplishing their goals over an extended period of time, but that would require another 2-3 years, and the fact that the Kiev regime’s provocations are getting more and more desperate tends to indicate that it would be unwise to place any confidence in the West’s sanity or restraint. Which is why I expect to see this summer an offensive of unexpectedly massive proportions and from at least one unexpected direction that will transform the situation on the ground in a matter of weeks rather than years, because that is the hallmark of the Russian way of war.

And while such an offensive will panic the Europeans and run a small risk of triggering direct conflict with one or more NATO countries, it will set the stage for a surrender that is capable of significantly lower the tension in Eastern Europe. Which, I think, is a much safer bet than letting MI-6 and the CIA conspire with the Kiev regime in repeated attempts to trigger nuclear war.

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Marching Orders

It appears Conservative Inc. has been told that the “I have a dream” days are officially over by their masters. So much for its principled indifference to what Ben Shapiro called “the Browning of America”.

Key word: “third world”. Because we wouldn’t want Americans repatriating all those foreign nationals in the Congress and governor’s houses, would we? And yet, that’s exactly what is necessary, otherwise it’s only the symptom that is being addressed and not the cause. The 1965 Immigration Act has to be not only repealed, but entirely reversed, and the pre-1965 demographics will need to be restored if the USA is to survive into the future as a recognizably American nation.

Fortunately, it appears the level of conflict that will make that scale of repatriations politically viable appears to be beginning.

Donald Trump is set to deploy ICE tactical units to five Democrat-run cities amid the riots in Los Angeles as Gavin Newsom nearly broke into tears while blaming his administration for inciting the California chaos. The military-style units are set to storm New York City, Seattle, Chicago, Philadelphia and northern Virginia, MSNBC reported. Four of those five are heavily blue cities, while northern Virginia contains the Democrat enclave of Alexandria.

The ICE raids have sparked protests that brought Los Angeles to its knees, as the mayor opted to introduce a lockdown from 8pm to 6am.

The reports came as the California governor delivered a harrowing prediction for the rest of the country Tuesday night in a nationally televised address that blasted Trump’s deployment of US troops to Los Angeles.

‘Look, this isn’t just about protests here in Los Angeles, when Donald Trump sought blanket authority to commandeer the National Guard. He made that order apply to every state in this nation,’ Newsom said, as he teared up.

‘This is about all of us. This is about you. California may be first, but it clearly will not end here. Other states are next. Democracy is next. Democracy is under assault before our eyes, this moment we have feared has arrived.’ Newsom accused Trump of ‘taking a wrecking ball to our founding fathers’ historic project’ of three co-equal branches of government.

As the governor delivered his teary address, the President was greeting US military personnel at Fort Bragg. He was set to recognise the 250th anniversary of the US Army, but instead gave an aggressive speech defending his decision to deploy soldiers against ‘animals’ and ‘foreign enemies’ trying to prevent the administration from carrying out its immigration policy.

‘What you’re witnessing in California is a full blown assault on peace, on public order and national sovereignty… with the aim of continuing a foreign invasion of our country. We’re not gonna let that happen,’ he said. ‘We will not allow an American city to be invaded and conquered by a foreign enemy. That’s what they are.’

The larger problem is that it isn’t just the large cities under threat. The USA itself has been invaded and subverted by a foreign enemy. It’s called “AIPAC”. The foreign invasion will not be ended until AIPAC, the ADL, and all the other anti-American acronym organizations are addressed for what they are, and the sovereignty and self-rule of Americans in their own land is fully restored.

In the meantime, at a bare minimum, President Trump is going to have to add Atlanta to that list of five ICE offensives.

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AI is Killing College

While I knew the current higher education system is both unsustainable and unnecessary now, I never suspected that it would be AI and not debt or the absence of men that would put the final nail in the university coffin:

While professors may think they are good at detecting AI-generated writing, studies have found they’re actually not. One, published in June 2024, used fake student profiles to slip 100 percent AI-generated work into professors’ grading piles at a U.K. university. The professors failed to flag 97 percent. It doesn’t help that since ChatGPT’s launch, AI’s capacity to write human-sounding essays has only gotten better…

There are, of course, plenty of simple ways to fool both professors and detectors. After using AI to produce an essay, students can always rewrite it in their own voice or add typos. Or they can ask AI to do that for them: One student on TikTok said her preferred prompt is “Write it as a college freshman who is a li’l dumb.” Students can also launder AI-generated paragraphs through other AIs, some of which advertise the “authenticity” of their outputs or allow students to upload their past essays to train the AI in their voice. “They’re really good at manipulating the systems. You put a prompt in ChatGPT, then put the output into another AI system, then put it into another AI system. At that point, if you put it into an AI-detection system, it decreases the percentage of AI used every time,” said Eric, a sophomore at Stanford.

Most professors have come to the conclusion that stopping rampant AI abuse would require more than simply policing individual cases and would likely mean overhauling the education system to consider students more holistically. “Cheating correlates with mental health, well-being, sleep exhaustion, anxiety, depression, belonging,” said Denise Pope, a senior lecturer at Stanford and one of the world’s leading student-engagement researchers.

Many teachers now seem to be in a state of despair. In the fall, Sam Williams was a teaching assistant for a writing-intensive class on music and social change at the University of Iowa that, officially, didn’t allow students to use AI at all. Williams enjoyed reading and grading the class’s first assignment: a personal essay that asked the students to write about their own music tastes. Then, on the second assignment, an essay on the New Orleans jazz era (1890 to 1920), many of his students’ writing styles changed drastically. Worse were the ridiculous factual errors. Multiple essays contained entire paragraphs on Elvis Presley (born in 1935). “I literally told my class, ‘Hey, don’t use AI. But if you’re going to cheat, you have to cheat in a way that’s intelligent. You can’t just copy exactly what it spits out,’” Williams said.

Williams knew most of the students in this general-education class were not destined to be writers, but he thought the work of getting from a blank page to a few semi-coherent pages was, above all else, a lesson in effort. In that sense, most of his students utterly failed. “They’re using AI because it’s a simple solution and it’s an easy way for them not to put in time writing essays. And I get it, because I hated writing essays when I was in school,” Williams said. “But now, whenever they encounter a little bit of difficulty, instead of fighting their way through that and growing from it, they retreat to something that makes it a lot easier for them.”

By November, Williams estimated that at least half of his students were using AI to write their papers. Attempts at accountability were pointless. Williams had no faith in AI detectors, and the professor teaching the class instructed him not to fail individual papers, even the clearly AI-smoothed ones. “Every time I brought it up with the professor, I got the sense he was underestimating the power of ChatGPT, and the departmental stance was, ‘Well, it’s a slippery slope, and we can’t really prove they’re using AI,’” Williams said. “I was told to grade based on what the essay would’ve gotten if it were a ‘true attempt at a paper.’ So I was grading people on their ability to use ChatGPT.”

The “true attempt at a paper” policy ruined Williams’s grading scale. If he gave a solid paper that was obviously written with AI a B, what should he give a paper written by someone who actually wrote their own paper but submitted, in his words, “a barely literate essay”? The confusion was enough to sour Williams on education as a whole. By the end of the semester, he was so disillusioned that he decided to drop out of graduate school altogether. “We’re in a new generation, a new time, and I just don’t think that’s what I want to do,” he said.

“The students kind of recognize that the system is broken and that there’s not really a point in doing this.”

The students are right. There is no point in doing this, because the only reason they’re doing it is to acquire a golden ticket to higher income and higher social status that increasingly no longer exists.

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Vampires Hardest Hit

And suddenly, just like that, we all became de facto Jehovah’s Witnesses:

Dr. Ben Marble: “We need to quit accepting blood from people who took the poison. The entire blood supply in America, and basically the whole world, is contaminated with the spike protein poison bioweapon. We’re seeing patients that get blood transfusions that are unvaccinated, and suddenly they get blood clots or have heart attacks or strokes.”

I was concerned about the likelihood of this, and unlike some of our previously unfounded concerns, such as Case Nightmare Kitty, this one appears to pose a legitimate crisis.

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