Tag: war

The Collapse of the Coalition

Even Clown World’s European satrapies are beginning to refuse to go along with the USA’s desperate attempts to shore up the edges of empire:

Australia is the latest country to reject a request from the United States to send warships to the Red Sea under the command of the Pentagon’s Operation Prosperity Guardian to protect commercial vessels along the critical maritime trade route from Iran-backed Houthi.

Defense Minister Richard Marles told Sky News that Australia’s military would not send a “ship or a plane” to the Red Sea but would triple the number of troops for the US-led maritime force. “We need to be really clear around our strategic focus and our strategic focus is our region,” Marles said.

The Pentagon’s formation of Operation Prosperity Guardian, a new task force to protect shipping from Houthi drone and missile attacks in the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea, requires increased warship patrols by the US and allies. This will create a security umbrella over commercial vessels to defend from attacks.

Reuters said about twenty countries have signed up for the Pentagon’s new operation. However, several countries, including Australia, Spain, Italy, and France, have rejected the Pentagon’s request to participate in the operation.

These coalitions usually aren’t more than diplomatic cover for US troops, but in this case, the involvement of the lesser navies is actually necessary in the hopes of preventing the Houthis from sinking a US warship and thereby revealing the naked state of the US military. These hopes were always futile, however, since it’s pretty obvious that while Hezbollah, Iran, Russia, and China are all being cautious about directly attacking US military assets without the benefit of US camouflage – such as the Rangers and Patriot missile teams in Ukraine, for example – the Houthis appear to be very nearly ready to take on all comers as the Taliban.

None of this is happening by accident. The unrestricted and asymmetrical nature of the conflicts popping up one by one around the world, combined with China’s apparent quiescence, is very much in keeping with the geopolitical strategy laid out 24 years ago by the Chinese military. The fact that the neoclown strategists are keeping at least one very wary eye on China, despite its seeming lack of involvement in any of these conflicts and close calls from Gaza to Georgia, tends to suggest that the imperial advisers are well aware of this.

It may be another decade of this death-by-one-thousand-cuts warfare before China bestirs itself to openly challenge the Empire. Or it may only be a few more months before one or another of the various fronts that have been opened collapses. But regardless, it is eminently clear that we are witnessing the fall of an empire that has been in decline since 1973.

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Did Russia Demand Surrender?

It’s pretty clear that Russia is geared up for a major offensive, which could be launched at any time. The Ukrainian military has been significantly degraded, and its morale is shot. Whenever the Russian offensive is launched, it will be successful. Which is why it makes sense that Russia is giving NATO an opportunity to surrender Ukraine before launching the offensive that would render any such surrender unnecessary.

However, the source is unreliable, so this should be regarded as possible news yet to be verified rather than actual events that have definitely taken place. And even if it is real, that doesn’t mean the neocons have enough sense to accept either the terms or the fact of their defeat in their proxy war.

Russian officials arrived in Washington, DC Thursday morning to discuss the terms of Ukraine’s SURRENDER. The “Special Flight Squadron moves Kremlin officials traveling on important matters.

TERMS: The terms given to Washington, DC for Ukraine are:

  • Complete Ukraine surrender.
  • Complete surrender of all military equipment.
  • Russian territory will range from Karkhov to Odessa, and gives Russia complete control of Black Sea coast.
  • Western Ukraine cannot join NATO, or have any military aid.
  • Russia does not care who controls western Ukraine, and have openly offered it to Poland.

Put bluntly, the Ukraine war is over and Ukraine lost. Completely.

They can no longer defend themselves in any meaningful way. If hostilities are not halted, Ukraine will simply be slaughtered and, believe it or not, Russia does NOT want to do that.

Notice this information isn’t anywhere on the mass-media news?

Notice the Washington Post STOPPED PRINTING it’s “Ukraine War Update Section?”

No reporting that Ukraine has lost – – – and not a word about Russia’s victory.

The only reason I’m a bit dubious about this is that it makes no reference to the USA ending Russian sanctions, and permitting its European and Asian satrapies to also end the sanctions. Especially in light of the recent statement by the Russian ambassador to the USA:

US attempts to hamper the development of the Russian economy through sanctions are increasingly damaging bilateral relations and making respectful dialogue between Washington and Moscow virtually impossible, Russian Ambassador Anatoly Antonov has said. His remarks followed Washington’s announcement on Friday that it is considering further sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine conflict.

Translation: the neocons won’t be able to give up Ukrainian territory without also giving up their sanctions regime. I find it very difficult to imagine that Russia would accept a Ukrainian surrender that did not involve an end to the Western sanctions. But it should be kept in mind that the fact that Hal Turner’s report did not mention sanctions does not mean that the Russian delegation is not demanding them of the US negotiators.

Which also points to the reason to take the report seriously: if it was fake, it would probably refer to the Kiev regime as the party with whom Russia is negotiating. But this has been a war between Russia and the USA from the start.

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They Know They Lost, Right?

It’s no wonder that NATO has been demolished in Ukraine with military leadership of this intellectual calibre and historical knowledge:

The Ukrainian government needs to look at what Germany did in WWII to stand a chance against Russia, according to Ben Hodges, former commander of US Army forces stationed in Europe. Hodges, who retired as a lieutenant-general in 2017, has long been an outspoken supporter of Ukraine. In an interview with the Australian YouTuber Perun, published over the weekend, he repeatedly cited examples from the Second World War to argue that Kiev can defeat Moscow on the battlefield. “They are gonna have to increase production of ammunition and weapons in Ukraine,” Hodges said. “Some of these things are already happening, but it is possible when you are at war to increase production, even with Russian missiles raining down on your cities.” “I mean, think about what Germany did in 1944. Aircraft production for the Luftwaffe peaked in 1944. That’s after more than two years of steady bombing by the Royal Air Force and the US Army Air Corps bombing the hell out of German cities. But yet German aircraft production increased. So I think Ukraine can do that with some improving efficiency. Some Western companies are already there helping,” he concluded.

On the one hand, he’s right. Germany did increase its aircraft production in 1944. And so did Japan, which not only increased its shipping tonnage produced in 1944, but even managed to build more aircraft in 1945 than it did in 1942.

  • 1942: 8,900
  • 1943: 16,700
  • 1944: 28,200
  • 1945: 11,100

On the other hand—–and I would argue this is the more salient point—–both Germany and Japan were not only defeated militarily, but were defeated so comprehensively that they were forced to surrender unconditionally and are still under military occupation nearly 80 years after their respective surrenders.

Forget the Kiev regime. Forget Ukraine. And forget NATO. Anyone who knows anything about military history recognizes that both of them are already finished, they simply haven’t stopped quivering yet. The USA is now facing global military defeat on every single front, even as it is prostrate before the biggest invasion in all of human history.

At this point there appears to be nothing that can stop the All Nations Alliance from defeating Clown World. And for those who would cite the US and Israeli nuclear arsenals as a possible emergency measure, I repeat: there is nothing. I didn’t understand it when I first read the book as a child, but in retrospect, Jeff Sutton was telling us what the programming was back in 1968.

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Neoclown Admits the Defeat of “the West”

Oleksii Mykolaiovych Arestovych is a blogger, actor, political and military columnist. He was a speaker of the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine. He worked as a Strategic Communications Adviser of the Office of the President of Ukraine from December 2020 to January 2023.

Translation: He’s one of the Ukraine-based clowns who was responsible for the communications between Clown World Central and the Kiev regime.

And now he’s following the late Henry Kissinger’s lead in publicly acknowledging that Kiev bet on the weak horse and is now facing the consequences. Simplicius provides the translation:

The entire West is losing, both globalists and isolationists – and we, who bet on it, due to our stupidity.

The isolationists won against the Republicans; the globalist Democrats are unable to solve the problems that they themselves created on a global scale.

Isolationists believe in the United States as a city on a hill and want to throw concerns about Europe into the hands of right-wingers like Orban.

And for starters, together throw off Ukraine, which is considered a construct of globalists.

The problem is not that they can’t give us money.

The problem is that they can’t give us shells.

Forty billion was thrown into a widely publicized microchip plant in Phoenix (Arizona), like a transfer from Taiwan.

The plant is standing still, there are no workers.

They tried to recruit Taiwanese, but it didn’t work either.

The Americans cannot launch the military-industrial complex, under the existing system, neither with Moroccans, nor with Mexicans, nor with dances, nor with tambourines.

The fundamental motivation of the market is financial speculation.

Arms companies show growth in capitalization, but never show growth in production (because there is practically none).

If production grows, it does so extremely slowly, so as not to break capitalization schemes.

Their task is to increase the value of shares, and not to create new equipment.

Tens of billions are being invested, but there is no growth in production.

And it won’t, for this it is necessary to change the entire paradigm, all the schemes that ensure his well-being.

I looked at the annual and quarterly reports of Ratheon, Lockheed, Boeing – the same thing everywhere.

Only decisions and actions in an emergency way out of a catastrophe can have an effect both here and in the West.

But there is another problem – there is no entity in the US/EU who could give such a command.

The West was really caught with its pants down.

Now they have to choose between three conflicts – Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel.

Dragging 70,000 shells from Israel to Ukraine and back is the culmination of the failure to fight the war that was forced on them.

At this rate, they will have a fourth and fifth conflict, I suspect, although in order to somehow cope with one (!) they need to stop helping in the other two.

For us this means disaster.

Of course, it’s not the genuine West that has been defeated, as the real West was infiltrated, suborned, and conquered decades ago. This is the defeat of the skinsuit “West”. Nor is the victory of the Sino-Russian alliance a problem for, much less a defeat of, American isolationists, whose position is finally being proven correct after more than a century. What Clown World is learning is a variant on Queen Cersei’s Lesson, which is that power is ultimately more important than either influence or money. Subversion, persuasion, and corruption only takes you so far.

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The Geostrategic Initiative is Gone

The unholy alliance of the Biden administration with the Republican neocons is in a sudden state of alarm and is inexplicably attempting to stir up the US citizenry for war with Russia.

You’ll recall in the last report I emphasized how the tone was now shifting to: “Russia will invade Europe next!” But even I didn’t expect them to run with that new narrative in such a provocative and alarmist way.

Now a new raft of reports and statements from the usual suspects gives us insight into how desperate the establishment warhawks representing MIC interests have really become.

First, these two videos. Biden openly says that American troops will have to fight Russian troops if Ukraine is not shored up immediately.

Kirby and Blinken stepped up the fearmongering as well, evoking spilled “American blood”:

They’re dialing up the fearporn to a hysteric level like never before:

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned Congress on Tuesday during a private briefing that if they do not pass more aid to Ukraine, it would “very likely” lead to U.S. troops fighting a war in Europe.

“If [Vladimir] Putin takes over Ukraine, he’ll get Moldova, Georgia, then maybe the Baltics,” House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul (R-TX) told The Messenger, after Austin and other senior Biden administration officials briefed House lawmakers on their request for more aid for Ukraine.

“And then the idea that we’ll have to put troops on the ground in Secretary Austin’s word was very likely,” McCaul added. “That’s what we’re trying to avoid.”

Recall in the last report I cited Moldova as precisely the next vector, given the sensitivity of the PMR pressure point for Russia. Most notable is his express use of the qualifier “very likely” to describe U.S. troops fighting on the ground. In fact, the U.S. has been preparing for this grand European war for a while now.

Establishment Alarmism in Overdrive, 8 December 2023

The political situation of the Kiev regime must be crumbling rapidly in Ukraine, and the hysteric tone of the rhetoric suggests that Russia has rebuffed the various settlement overtures that have been made to it. Recall that it wasn’t long ago that Kagan and the other leading neocons were calling for an end to hostilities on the Russian front in order to make a turn to the Chinese front possible. Then, Hamas and Israel opened up the Middle Eastern front.

So, how is it possible that fighting a three-front war is suddenly deemed better than fighting one on two fronts?

The logical answer is that the US no longer has the luxury of deciding upon how many fronts it is going to fight. It has entirely lost the geostrategic initiative due to the failure of its proxy in Ukraine, the weakness of its Greatest Ally in the Middle East, and the observable reluctance of its satrapies in Europe and Asia. On every front, it is the nationalist rebels against Clown World’s global empire who now are in control of what happens next.

And that is not a state to which the self-styled masters of the world have been accustomed for a very long time.

UPDATE: It should not be surprising that the strategists and politicians of Clown World do not recognize the limitations of the US military, given that the US military itself does not yet recognize them.

“You look at what is required to support Ukraine, look at what might be required to support our partner in Israel, and then, of course, you put Taiwan on top of that—we have the construct that we do with combatant commanders and the rest that should allow us to command and control those three things all at one time.”
—Admiral Christopher Grady, Vice Chairman, the Joint Chiefs of Staff

However, notice that the admiral used the term “command and control”. That means they do not have the men, the ships, the planes, or the missiles. They think they’re going to be able to fight two more proxy wars of the kind they have already lost in Ukraine.

I also think it’s a mistake to assume that the Sino-Russian alliance is incapable of opening more than the three obvious fronts. See: Niger, Venezuela.

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Taleb Admits the Obvious

One of the things I admire about NN Taleb is his ability, unlike most intellectuals, to openly and unashamedly admit that he was wrong about something. That’s one of the reasons I take him seriously even on those rare occasions when I think he has gotten it wrong.

I concede that @DavidSacks is correct about the relative strength of the parties in the Ukraine war, and I was WRONG. Russia is not as weak as it seemed; it has staying power. This means a settlement is the likely outcome.

And by “likely outcome” he means “the rational outcome”. But since NATO is, by most perspectives, an intrinsically irrational party, I wouldn’t place too much confidence in that. After all, what is the point in Russia signing a third Minsk agreement with parties who have repeatedly proven to be agreement-incapable?

Still, it’s good to see the more intelligent elements of the mainstream perspective beginning to understand that Russia was always going to win its war against NATO in Ukraine.

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The USN is Now Obsolete

Vladimir Putin makes it very clear that China, and most likely Iran as well, will be getting hypersonic missile technology.

Russia’s current relationship with China allows for full-spectrum cooperation in the tech sector, including with regards to its military applications, President Vladimir Putin told a Chinese entrepreneur on Thursday during a panel discussion at VTB Bank’s ‘Russia Calling!’ forum.

The remark was part of Putin’s answer to a question about US sanctions policy, which includes a ban on export of certain technologies to some nations, which, the Chinese businessman suggested, was forcing them to “reinvent the bicycle”. The Russian leader said such restrictions were not viable in the long run even before the world became profoundly interconnected…

Washington’s current policies are meant to preserve its dominant status, the Russian president claimed, but “if we act across the board, supporting and helping each other, no restrictions by whoever tries to keep its advantage can stop us.”

As for China specifically, Russia is ready to cooperate in every area, Putin assured.

“We have no limits. This includes the military sphere,” he said. “When it comes to security, we are moving away from the traditional ‘buy-sell’ kind of relationship. We think about the future, about technologies.”

Translation: Because, unlike the US and British empires, the Russian people are not seeking to unilaterally dominate the world, there is no reason not to share its advanced weapons technology with other powers that share the Russian objective to free itself from Clown World’s economic and military dominance.

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Finland Doubles Down on Failure

Once it becomes clear you made a bad bet, the smart thing to do is cash out and file away any lessons learned for next time. Faced with the increasingly obvious defeat of the Kiev regime, the Finnish government hasn’t taken the smart step of breaking away from NATO, but instead decided to double down on a prospective rematch with the Russian military:

Finland is going to produce artillery shells for Ukraine because arming Kiev for its conflict with Russia is a “vital issue” for Helsinki, Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen has said.

He told Iltalehti newspaper on Tuesday that the details of how artillery shells would be produced for Ukraine had been finalized, and a decision on the matter would be made “very soon.” According to Hakkanen, the government will finalize all of its plans before Christmas, which Finland celebrates on December 25.

The country became a NATO member state last year and is looking to “significantly increase munitions production” to be able “to support Ukraine even more strongly than it does now,” Hakkanen said.

This is why it is not only wise, but absolutely vital, to disbelieve every single narrative being promulgated by the mainstream media. If you listen to Clown World, sooner or later you will find yourself beclowned.

Or worse.

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Zelensky in the Bunker

It appears that the days of the Zelensky regime are numbered, as even his allies are preparing to remove him from office:

I read a new report which seems completely believable given the somewhat ‘strange’ and inconsistent tactics of the grand counteroffensive, that essentially Zaluzhny in some ways ‘threw’ the offensive. Not deliberately sabotaged it per se—but rather that Zelensky really wanted an “all in” approach, maximum meat sacrificed, while Zaluzhny played it extremely safe after the disastrous opening, where the 47th and other brigades were mauled, with the famous Leopard/Bradley orgies of destruction. If you’ve noticed, since that point, the offensive devolved into a very cagey company-at-a-time approach that seemed more like an endless probative action rather than full on multi-brigade combined arms maneuvers into one direction. According to this opinion, this was a deliberate attempt of Zaluzhny’s to countervail the ‘orders of sacrifice’ and save as many men as possible.

Zaluzhny has been known to be the one calling for defensive fortifications and a retreat from various blood-baths like Bakhmut and Avdeevka, while Zelensky has always pushed forward to not give an inch, same as currently happening in Avdeevka. So it seems Zaluzhny has always been the one most amenable to whatever will save the men’s lives.

Now onto the second thing regarding Hersh’s claims. The confidante made some tongue-in-cheek mention of Zelensky’s ‘trip to the Caribbean’ being prepared. Ironically, a new such report actually did hit the streets, which claims that a secret operation is already underway to prepare Zelensky’s relocation to the U.S.

A US Secret Service agent who wished to remain anonymous has revealed to DCWeekly details about the arrangements being made for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s relocation to the United States. The agent claims that the Biden administration has issued orders to ensure the safety and accommodation of President Zelensky’s family starting in the spring of 2024. This decision is based on the belief that Zelensky’s presidency in Ukraine may conclude next year, and remaining in Ukraine thereafter could pose security risks.

And certainly, the way in which the Zelensky regime has been observably trying to freeze out and minimize the Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, while someone has been assassinating his deputies, does point toward a serious struggle for control of the regime.

Whether of this makes any difference at all, given the fact that Russia doesn’t have to agree to any of the terms that will be proposed by a post-Zelensky regime, remains to be seen. While Russia would have settled for the recovery of the Crimea and the two Donbass republics two years ago, there is no reason it should do so now that it has already recovered and annexed those regions. I can’t imagine Russia now agreeing to settle for anything less than Odessa, Kherson, and Nikolayev, an end to all European sanctions, and the complete demilitarization of Ukraine.

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Russia’s Volkskriege

Big Serge explains the transformation of the Russian approach to its war with NATO/Ukraine:

Russia began a Kabinettskriege in 2022 when it invaded Ukraine, and found itself mired in something closer to a Volkskriege. Russia’s mode of operation and war aims would have been instantly recognizable to a 17th Century statesman – the Russian professional army attempted to defeat the Ukrainian professional army and achieve limited territorial gains (the Donbas and recognition of Crimea’s legal status). They called this a “special military operation.”

Instead, the Ukrainian state has decided – like the French National Government – to fight to the death. To Bismarck’s demands for Alace-Lorraine, the French simply said “there can be no reply but Guerre a Outrance” – war to the utmost. Putin’s cabinet war – limited war for limited aims – exploded into a national war.

Unlike Bismarck, however, Putin has opted to see Ukraine’s raise. My suggestion – and it is only that – is that Putin’s dual decisions in the autumn of last year to announce a mobilization and to annex the disputed Ukrainian territories amounted to a tacit agreement to Ukraine’s Volkskrieg.

In the debate between Moltke and Bismarck, Putin has chosen to follow Moltke’s lead, and wage the war of extermination. Not – and again we stress this – a war of genocide, but a war which will destroy Ukraine as a strategically potent entity. Already the seeds are sown and the fruit begins to bud – a Ukrainian democide, achieved through battlefield attrition and the mass exodus of prime age civilians, an economy in shambles and a state that is cannibalizing itself as it reaches the limits of its resources.

There is a model for this – ironically, Germany itself. After the Second World War, it was decided that Germany – now held to account for two terrible conflagrations – could simply not be allowed to persist as a geopolitical entity. In 1945, after Hitler shot himself, the allies did not demand the spoils of a Cabinet War. There was no minor annexation here, no redrawn border there. Instead, Germany was annihilated. Her lands were divided, her self-governance was abolished. Her people lingered on in a stygian exhaustion, their political form and life now a plaything of the victor – precisely what Moltke wanted to do to France.

Putin is not going to leave a geostrategically intact Ukraine which will seek to retake the Donbas and exact revenge, or become a potent forward base for NATO. Instead, he will transform Ukraine into a Trashcanistan that can never wage a war of revanchism.

Clausewitz warned us.

This is why studying history, even as an amateur hobbyist, is invaluable. The ability to recognize the patterns that play repeatedly play out over time will often provide the intelligent, but informed amateur a better basis for understanding and anticipating events than the professionals and political decision makers.

It’s educational to note that while the professionals and politicians never understood the significance of the Special Military Operation designation, many of the armchair military historians did.

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