Tag: EU

The EU member-states now have permission to pay for oil and natural gas in rubles:

The European Commission said Friday that EU companies may be able to comply with Russia’s proposed gas payment system, without running afoul of sanctions against Moscow.

Considering that democracy no longer means democracy and free trade no longer means free trade, there’s no reason why sanctions should actually mean sanctions.

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The US Secretary of State suggests that Russia might press past Ukraine into NATO territory:

Vladimir Putin may not stop once he has taken Ukraine, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has warned, as satellite images show Russia assembling troops, armor and artillery along Belarus’s border with Poland. The massive buildup was spotted in the Belarus city of Brest, just 10 miles east of the the Polish border.

‘Russia has assembled troops, armor, artillery, and more than 50 heavy equipment transporters at a training area in Brest, the Polish border. Russia has also added more equipment at a nearby railyard in Belarus,’ said reporter Jack Detsch, a Pentagon and national security correspondent at Foreign Policy magazine.

Blinken was asked by ABC News on Thursday night whether he felt the Russian president would recall his forces once Ukraine was conquered.

‘Is it a possibility that Putin goes beyond Ukraine? Sure, it’s a possibility,’ Blinken told host David Muir.

But he stressed that progressing beyond Ukraine into neighboring Poland, Slovakia, Hungary or Romania would mean invading a NATO member country, and would automatically draw in the US, UK, France, Canada and the other nations that form the 30-country alliance.

‘There is something very powerful standing in the way of that, and it’s something we call Article Five,’ said Blinken.

In theory, sure. But Article Five is precisely why Russia is highly incentivized to attack any of the four countries concerned. Vladimir Putin now has a low-risk, low-cost opportunity to shatter NATO once and for all, and he would be remiss if he did not seriously contemplate taking advantage of the opportunity that now presents itself. This is so obvious that even the dementia-addled Fake Biden Administration is aware of it.

It’s clear that the USA, let alone the larger European states, have no desire whatsoever to go to war with the highly formidable Russian military. Even their ability to do so has to be in question given the way in which the larger Ukrainian military has melted before the Russian quantzkrieg, especially given the fact that the third-largest European military – Germany’s – is considered to be roughly comparable to the now-defeated Ukrainian forces.

So Putin now has the chance to prove to the various NATO member states that their precious treaty, including Article Five, is as worthless as the Anglo-French security guarantees given to Poland prior to World War II. In light of the strategic brilliance exhibited thus far by the Russian strategists, I cannot imagine that this thought has not occurred to Putin or any of his generals. They know there is no need to sweep across Eastern Europe to shatter NATO and render all of its promises null and void. A simple incursion in force that destroys a few NATO bases would almost certainly suffice to accomplish their objectives without risking World War III.

Words are often no more than just that, words. And history demonstrates that the average military treaty is worth less than the paper on which it was signed. NATO is a literally paper tiger, and it is in the Russian interest to demonstrate that to its members.

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And I, quite clearly was not. I was under the impression that Russia was content to permit Ukraine to keep running its “Russia is going to attack, send us money and arms that we can sell on the black market” grift while making serious bank on the rising oil and natural gas prices as long as the globohomo governments were willing to fund it. But what I failed to account for was the active threat that was being posed by the Ukrainian forces with their constant attacks on the two Donbass republics, or the significance of the civilian evacuations there.

To his credit, the Saker saw the Russian operation coming the day before it happened.

Until the time of writing this, the Ukronazis have continued shelling and shooting, but there has been no fullscale ground attack (yet!). The Ukie special services have sent a few diversionary groups into the LDNR and even into a small strip of Russian land. These groups were detected and intercepted by the Russian Border Guards. The Ukies tried to send a BMP few infantry fighting vehicle to rescue their soliders only to have them destroyed by the Russian military’s anti-tank weapons.

Today the Ukies continued to direct their artillery attacks and diversionary groups at the LDNR. Water and electricity are off in some parts of the LDNR. People are still dying every day and there is no signs of the Ukie bombardments abating. Especially violent combats are taking place near the town of Nikolaevka.

The Ukies have also declared a state of emergency (to be approved by the Rada) and are now making more and more noises about re-arming themselves with nuclear weapons. Smart move when Putin says that the Ukraine must be disarmed… Frankly, I think that the Ukies are terrified.

I know I sure would if I was in their place.

They cannot simply retreat, there is no way Ze can order that and not be overthrown.

They cannot attack because now it is too late, all these force comparisons between the Banderastani forces and the LDNR forces have become, if not irrelevant, than at least a lot less relevant now that Putin has basically prepared both the military and the legal conditions necessary for any kind of Russian military operation, from strikes with standoff weapons, to a ground and/or amphibious assault. All he has to do now is say “go”. Judging by his tone yesterday, not only do I feel that he is willing to give that order, but I also think that he has accepted that this is the “least bad” option for Russia and the LDNR.

Again, Putin said that he fully intends to disarm the Ukraine, at least from all her heavy weapons. Since the Ukies won’t give them up, I see only one way to achieve this: disarm them by force.

So, in one way or another, I expect major combat action in the Eastern Ukraine in the next couple of days.

Keep in mind that the West’s response to Putin’s words and actions only serve to further convince Russia that 1) more sanctions and subversion is inevitable 2) violence is unavoidable.

Remember these famous words by Putin: “Fifty years ago, the streets of Leningrad taught me one thing: If a fight’s inevitable, you must strike first“?

It appears to me that the Kremlin has concluded that a violent fight is, indeed, inevitable. You figure out the rest 🙂

So where do we go from here?

I would say that major combat operations against the Ukie forces in the LDNR republics are probably inevitable and, barring some last minute miracle, the Russians will soon disarm a good part of the Ukie forces. Remember that Putin specifically added the disarmament of the Ukraine as one of his demands.

Does anybody think that anybody can stop the disarmament (we are talking about major weapon systems, not AKs) of the Ukraine by Russia in the near/middle term?

I don’t.

Next, I think that Putin will successfully impose all his demands upon the Ukraine, which means two things:

The Kiev regime will collapse, at least de facto. The rest of Banderastan will eventually break-up into different regimes and successor states.

It will remain to be seen how extensive the Russian operation – which, contra the mainstream media reports, is clearly not “a full-scale invasion” yet – turns out to be. However, I am very, very dubious that NATO, the USA, or any European government is going to send any troops to Ukraine, because that would not only guarantee the very full-scale invasion it was supposed to prevent, but increase the risk of Russia declaring war on the governments responsible.

That being said, the Saker was correct about the timing of the operation and its focus on disarming the Ukrainian forces. So, perhaps he is correct about the US/NATO being foolish enough to attempt a military intervention. Regardless, I think he is absolutely right about the threat that the Russian demonstration of force poses to the existence of NATO, and perhaps even the EU as well.

I think that there is a high probability that the US/NATO will move some forces into western Ukraine, to “protect their people and infrastructure” in and around Lvov, and to declare that “their show of unity and determination stopped Russia from invading the entire Ukraine”. I don’t think that Russia will object too much against any NATO move inside and limited to the Lvov/Ivano-Frankovsk region. These are not historically Russian lands and they are basically irrelevant to Russia.

If the US wants to Poles to oppress the Ukronazis in their own western Ukraine, nobody in Russia will care.

As for the West, to take credit for a defeat is a long US/NATO tradition, so such an operation can be used to save NATO’s face.

But that won’t be enough.

The West has already been beaten politically, and now a military defeat of some kind is probably inevitable.

I am not talking about an invasion of the entire Ukraine (God forbid!) but it will be clear to all that the Russian bear forced NATO to retreat, politically and militarily. The Anglos are too smart to volunteer for a war with Russia. The Polaks are, as always, only hiding behind the backs of their latest masters. The Balts are irrelevant.

So the only option is to fight the Russians down the the last Ukrainian and when that happens, it might not be an “NATO defeat” legally speaking, but like on 08.08.08 it will be a crushing defeat for NATO publicly. Maybe not as bad as Kabul, but much worse than Georgia in 08.08.08.

At that point, a lot of folks will be wondering if NATO is worth the money spent on. And once that process begins, there will be no stopping it.

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