Tag: Russia

Setup for a Showdown

Russia responds to the US Navy’s provocative move into the Mediterranean:

As the Israel-Gaza conflict escalates, with the expected involvement of various regional powers, the inclusion of global ones after the United States sent a massive naval force to the Eastern Mediterranean was guaranteed. And indeed, this now includes Russia which decided to send its superfast, high-flying MiG-31 jets to patrol the Black Sea. Namely, on October 18, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly announced that Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) will deploy MiG-31K/I (interceptors modified into strike fighters) armed with 9-A-7660 “Kinzhal” air-launched hypersonic missiles (usually given the unconfirmed Kh-47M2 designation) in response to large-scale US naval deployments. Although this doesn’t immediately indicate that the jets are on combat duty to tackle the possible involvement of US forces, the “Kinzhal’s” range and speed are more than enough to jeopardize American assets.

With the USS “Dwight D. Eisenhower” Nimitz-class supercarrier (CVN-69) joining the USS “Gerald R. Ford” (CVN-78), the US Navy now operates two carrier strike groups (CSGs) in the Eastern Mediterranean. Combined, both vessels can carry up to 180 aircraft, in addition to other ships escorting them as part of the CSGs. This massive force is a threat to Russian allies in the region, particularly Syria, and by extension, Moscow’s forces deployed in the Middle Eastern country.

The MiG-31s armed with “Kinzhals” and flying over the Black Sea cover the entirety of the Eastern Mediterranean without going anywhere near American CSGs. Namely, although estimates vary significantly, the “Kinzhal’s” range is up to 2000 km, meaning that the MiG-31K/I strike fighters are capable of launching the hypersonic missiles well beyond the range of any US ship-based air defenses, interceptors or similar assets.

It should be noted that the US Navy also sent the USS “Bataan” (LHD-5) Wasp-class amphibious assault ship with the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit (SOC – Special Operations Capable) and additional naval forces.

The USS “Bataan” can also carry up to 20 aircraft, further reinforcing the already massive US presence in the area. In addition, the 26th MEU has at least 1600 marines, although its full combat strength is up to 2400. Apart from these, the Pentagon deployed other assets such as the A-10 “Thunderbolt II” attack jets, F-15E “Strike Eagle” strike fighters, as well as the B-1B “Lancer” long-range bombers. The latter were sent from their home base in Texas on October 12 and forward deployed to RAF (Royal Air Force) Fairford airbase in the United Kingdom. From there, “Lancers” could launch strikes against targets across the Middle East and elsewhere, jeopardizing at least half a dozen countries in the region.

As previously mentioned, all of the aforementioned assets are a threat to Russian forces deployed in the area, as well as to Moscow’s allies, particularly Syria. It should be noted that the forces Washington DC sent so far are absolutely unnecessary against Hamas.

This underlines expectations that the Middle East will be the second front in WWIII. Most of the US forces arriving in nominal support of the incipient Israeli offensive in Gaza – and quite possibly Syria and Southern Lebanon as well – are not only useless against Hamas, but against Hezbollah as well.

Since Russians have resolutely refused to directly engage the NATO in Ukraine, it appears that the neoclowns are determined to find a way to provoke them into open war in a manner that they can’t resist.

When military leaders make their final, fatal mistake, it is usually the sort of action that has hitherto been very successful for them. The cautious leader fails to act when he must, the aggressive leaders bites off more than he can chew. Israeli officers are indoctrinated in the romance of the bold and daring stroke that wins the war, and revere aggressive generals like Dayan, Sharon, and Patton. This is why I am beginning to suspect that instead of simply beginning the ground offensive in Gaza, we’re going to see a bigger, more comprehensive attack on two or more fronts that is intended to catch Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah by surprise.

The presence of the US military would be to ensure that the IDF holds its gains by keeping Iran and Russia from defending their allies. I tend to doubt, however, that the US forces still command the respect that used to render them such a compelling deterrent.

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The Global South is Lost

One unanticipated outcome of the recent flareup in the Middle East is that it appears to have put the final nail in the coffin of the Clown World Order by making it clear that the so-called “rules-based order” does not actually have any genuine principles or rules, thereby ensuring widespread global preference for the sovereign nations of the Multipolarity over the Imperial USA and its occupied satrapies.

Attempts by the US and its allies to “paint Moscow as a global pariah” have been “poisoned” by the rush to support Israeli retaliation against Hamas in Gaza, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday, citing more than a dozen officials.

“We have definitely lost the battle in the Global South,” one senior G7 diplomat was quoted as saying. “All the work we have done with the Global South [over Ukraine] has been lost… Forget about rules, forget about world order. They won’t ever listen to us again.”

“What we said about Ukraine has to apply to Gaza. Otherwise we lose all our credibility,” the official added. “The Brazilians, the South Africans, the Indonesians: why should they ever believe what we say about human rights?”

West ‘lost’ Global South over Israel, Financial Times, 18 October 2023

Now, this is apparently shocking news to the inhabitants of Clown World as well as its rulers, but it was always inevitable. The “Israel exception” to decades of baseless assertions about democracy and human rights and respect for indigenous peoples was never going to survive the Internet anyhow, nor was “the plight of the poor, oppressed Jewish people who never did nothing bad to nobody” ever going to cut any ice with anyone but high-trust, soft-hearted ignoramuses with no sense of history.

And it’s a particularly bad look for Israel to be observed to be “defending itself” by continuously expanding its territory. Considering that a significant percentage of the Global South has historical experience with violent colonization of its ancestral lands, it should not be much of a surprise that there is a natural tendency for those nations to instinctively side with the Palestinians. Indeed, those who are old enough will recall how many US-resident Jews vehemently supported the blacks in South Africa on much flimsier historical claims than those presently possessed by the Palestinians.

But as the Financial Times points out, it is the juxtaposition of Clown World’s position on the Russia-Ukraine situation with it’s position on the Israel-Palestinian situation that has probably been the most harmful to its credibility in the eyes of the Global South. Ukraine’s crimes against the Russians in the Donbass, and the 9,900 Russians killed there between 2014 and 2022, were far in excess of the various crimes committed by Hamas in the same timeframe, and yet the global media has spent the last 19 months relentlessly decrying Russian actions that have been considerably more restrained, given Russia’s capabilities, than the total ethnic cleansing or even extermination of the Palestinians now being threatened all over social media in response to a single Hamas raid.

Clown World is deranged and dying. One hopes the Great Powers of the Multipolarity will use their power and influence in a more circumspect and generally beneficial manner once it is gone.

UPDATE: Clown World is going to try to succeed itself.

The current US-led world order has “sort of run out of steam,” but Washington will shape the system that replaces it, US President Joe Biden told supporters on Saturday.

No, it really won’t.

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India Knew Russia Would Win

I read a fascinating article written by an Indian ambassador in The Tribune, India’s oldest English-language newspaper, nearly one year ago. It’s remarkable, because it illustrates that Indian strategists – or perhaps we should say Bharati strategists – clearly recognized what the European governments are still struggling to accept, namely, the inevitable defeat of the US and NATO and the transition to a multipolar world order.

Policy-makers and strategists in Delhi should make a careful note of the timeline. The bottom line is, Russia is looking for an all-out victory and will not settle for anything less than a friendly government in Kiev. Western politicians, including Biden, understand that there is nothing stopping the Russians now. The US’ weapon kitty is running dry as Kiev keeps asking for more.

When asked whether he’d meet Biden at the G20 in Bali, Putin derisively remarked on Friday, ‘He (Biden) should be asked whether he is ready to hold such negotiations with me or not. To be honest, I don’t see any need, by and large. There is no platform for any negotiations for the time being.’

However, Washington has not yet thrown in the towel and the Biden administration remains obsessed with exhausting the Russian military — even at the cost of Ukraine’s destruction. And, for the Russians too, there is still much to be worked out on the battlefield: the oppressed Russian populations in Odessa (which suffered unspeakable atrocities from the neo-Nazis), Mykolaiv, Zaporizhya, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkov are expecting ‘liberation’. It’s a highly emotive issue for Russia. Again, the overarching agenda of ‘demilitarisation’ and ‘denazification’ of Ukraine must be taken to its logical conclusion.

When all that is over, Putin knows Biden will not even want to meet him. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban said last week, ‘Anyone who seriously believes that the war can be ended through Russian-Ukrainian negotiations lives in another world. Reality looks different. In reality, such issues can only be discussed between Washington and Moscow. Today, Ukraine is able to fight only because it receives military assistance from the United States…

‘At the same time, I do not see President Biden as the person who would really be suitable for such serious negotiations. President Biden has gone too far. Suffice it to recall his statements to Russian President Putin.’

India should expect the defeat of the US and NATO, which completes the transition to a multipolar world order. Sadly, Indian elites are yet to purge their ‘unipolar predicament’. Europe, including Britain, is devastated and there is palpable discontent over the US’s ‘transatlantic leadership’. Indo-Pacific strategy is hopelessly adrift. New power centres are emerging in India’s extended neighbourhood, as the OPEC’s rebuff to Washington shows. A profound adjustment is needed in the Indian strategic calculus.

A War Russia Set to Win, 22 October 2022

One year later, it is clear that the Indian strategic calculus has, indeed, been modified as recommended, at least in part. The ambassador provides more recent prognostications at his blog, Indian Punchlines.

Looking ahead, further erosion of support for the Ukraine war can be expected and even a possible collapse of support for Ukraine across the collective West cannot be ruled out in the months ahead, especially if the Kremlin leadership finally decides to give a knockout punch to Ukraine’s military and/or orders the Russian forces to cross the Dnieper and take over Kiev and Odessa.

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The Decisive Turn

The mass of facts is getting to the point where even the deranged NATO strategists are beginning to have to admit their relevance to the situation and the total impossibility of the NATO objectives.

  1. Western arms and ammunition shortages.
    In June this year, British Defense Secretary Wallace said that Western countries had run out of national stocks of weapons that could be supplied to Kiev. For his part, Biden admitted in July that the decision to give cluster munitions to Ukraine was made because conventional shells had been exhausted.
  2. Public confidence in politicians in Europe and the U.S. has been lost.
    Ratings of distrust towards the heads of state of the EU and the USA are at a historical peak. 57 percent disapprove of Biden’s actions, 69 percent disapprove of Macron’s actions, 72 percent disapprove of Scholz’s actions. The majority of people in the US and European countries oppose supplying arms to Ukraine.
  3. The failure of the Kiev regime’s counteroffensive.
    The Ukrainian military, backed by NATO, has suffered huge losses in equipment and manpower. The lack of any results has disappointed Western sponsors.
  4. Economic problems of Europe and the USA.
    Eurozone economies are in recession. Germany is forced to cut social payments to poor families because of the costs of militarization of the Kiev regime. France has reduced the number of aid recipients; food packages are no longer distributed to those in need, and reimbursing of the purchase of medicines has been cut back. International agencies, expecting deterioration of the financial situation of the United States in the next three years, downgraded the long-term investment rating of the United States.
  5. Shortage of Ukrainian army personnel.
    The Kiev regime is mobilizing men over 50 years old, as well as those with tuberculosis, viral hepatitis, HIV, and others. From October 1, 2023, women will also be enrolled in the military register. Nurses, doctors and pharmacists will be barred from leaving Ukraine.
  6. Ukraine is bankrupt.
    Ukraine’s GDP in 2022 fell by 30.4 percent—the worst result in the country’s history. Without help from Washington and Brussels, Kiev cannot fulfill its obligations to its citizens. Ukraine has lost its financial autonomy.
  7. Demographic catastrophe in Ukraine.
    More than 10.5 million people fled from Ukraine. Another 11.2 million residents of Crimea, Sevastopol, Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, as well as Zaporizhya and Kherson regions made their choice to be with Russia. Since 2014, Ukraine has lost 53.7 percent of its population.

These 7 facts speak for themselves: Either the Kiev regime capitulates on the terms of the Russian Federation or Ukraine will cease to exist as a state.

The madness will end, and the sooner it ends, the better. Ukraine has already been comprehensively defeated. It has lost a higher percentage of its population than any of the defeated Axis states in WWII and any of the Triple Alliance states in WWI. NATO has been exposed as a paper tiger and the G7 “global” economy has been exposed as a mere regional one with no control and little influence over 80 percent of the planetary population.

WWIII will not end when Ukraine surrenders, but a NATO surrender on the Near Eastern Front will spare Europe some of the suffering that the Ukrainian people have experienced, because the war with China is going to be far more economically devastating than the proxy war with Russia has been.

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Germany Declares War on Russia

I don’t think this declaration by Germany’s Foreign Minister is going to age well, especially how it calls back to the infamous Lebensraum policy of the Third Reich.

Ukraine’s future “lies in” the European Union, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on Monday, adding that the bloc would soon incorporate regions that had joined Russia in 2022 but are still claimed by Kiev.

“[The EU] will soon stretch from Lisbon to Lugansk,” Baerbock told journalists on the sidelines of the EU foreign ministers’ meeting in the Ukrainian capital.

Lugansk is the capital of the Lugansk People’s Republic – one of the two former eastern Ukrainian regions that declared independence from Kiev in 2014 in the wake of the Western-backed Maidan coup in Kiev. Russia recognized its independence in February 2022, just days before the start of its military campaign in Ukraine. In autumn 2022, the Lugansk People’s Republic joined Russia, together with three other former Ukrainian territories following a series of referendums.

I don’t think this will surprise the Russians, who have known they were going to have to defeat NATO directly ever since the decapitation attack on Kiev failed at the beginning of the special military operation. And while I’m confident the Russians aren’t seeking a European empire, I think it is far more likely that Imperial Russia will stretch from Primorsky Krai to Porto than the EU will reach Lugansk. I very much doubt either Ukraine or the EU will survive WWIII as political entities.

This does not bode well for Europeans who had hoped for saner governments in the aftermath of the inevitable failure of the Ukro-NATO offensive.

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“We Will Lose” – Zelensky

In fairness, he’s not lying:

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has pegged his nation’s continued fight against Russia to sustained US military assistance, according to US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. “There was a single sentence that summed it all up, and I am quoting him verbatim. Mr. Zelensky said: ‘If we don’t get the aid, we will lose the war,’” the lawmaker told journalists after meeting Zelensky on Capitol Hill on Thursday.

Of course, NATO’s Ukrainian puppet is leaving out the small matter of how if Ukraine does get the aid, it will still lose the war.

Since the Spanish Empire ruled the waves, the rule has always been that the side which can manufacture more of the primary war material, be it wooden ships, iron tanks, or AI-controlled drones, will win the war.

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The Artillery Dilemma

It’s obvious to any rational observer that NATO is losing the war in Ukraine, and is losing it badly. And by badly, I mean in terms that exceed Arabs vs IDF and are beginning to approach British regulars vs Zulus. But it was always perfectly clear to everyone who understood the nature of modern land war that the US military never had any chance whatsoever of winning either a direct or a proxy war against the Russians in Ukraine.

Just as the coming naval war with China will depend almost entirely upon shipbuilding capacity to replace the ships on both sides that are inevitably sunk, the war in Ukraine depends upon the production of artillery shells. Consider the following four points.

  1. Artillery is the king of the battlefield again, accounting for 85 percent of the casualties in Ukraine.
  2. One 155mm round made in the USA by USA contractors costs 5,500 dollars, while a 152mm round made in Russia costs 600 dollars.
  3. One 152mm made in North Korea probably costs less than 60 dollars. The Russians just bought 10 million of them, and due to their oil production, can afford to buy as many shells as the North Koreans can make.
  4. Outsourcing ammunition production to China is not exactly an option these days.

Quod erat demonstrandum. Apparently this new shell-supply arrangement is very upsetting to the South Koreans. Or rather, to their puppet masters in the US who are speaking through them. Only the USA is permitted to have allies, right?

SEOUL, Sept 19 (Reuters) – South Korea summoned Russia’s ambassador to warn Moscow against any military cooperation with North Korea on Tuesday after last week’s summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and President Vladimir Putin raised concerns about a possible arms deal. First Vice Foreign Minister Chang Ho-jin summoned Russia’s ambassador in Seoul to urge “Russia to immediately halt any moves to expand military cooperation with North Korea and to abide by (UN) Security Council Resolutions,” South Korea’s foreign ministry said in a statement.

No doubt the Russians will be duly chastened and refrain from further military cooperation with the North Koreans. In the meantime, and in not-unrelated news, Poland is out of the Ukrainian arms business.

“Poland will no longer arm Ukraine to focus on its own defense,” Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced just hours after Warsaw summoned Ukraine’s ambassador related to a fresh war of words and spat over blocked grain, according to the AFP. Warsaw has throughout more than a year-and-a-half of the Ukraine-Russia war been Kiev’s staunchest and most outspoken supporter.

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Russia Unlocks Allies

I always thought it was strange that in all the mainstream analyses of the NATO-Russian war in Ukraine, the possibility that Russia could match and exceed Ukraine’s foreign equipment supply line by purchasing Chinese, Iranian, Turkish, and North Korean armaments was never taken into account. Now, a new deal between Russia and North Korea makes it clear that they should have been.

The most significant rumor from the North Korean parleys is that Russia has possibly made deals to obtain over 10 million 122mm and 152mm artillery shells from North Korea. If even remotely true, it represents a significant number that represents upwards of 1-3 years’ worth of shell useage, depending on intensity. Firing 30k shells a day equals just over 10M per year.

Such a massive shell boost—if true—could give Russia enough to comfortably launch a massive offensive in the future without worrying about dipping into emergency reserve. Recall what I said many times before: one weakness is that Russia always has to maintain a large reserve stock of shells for the contingency that NATO happens to launch some sort of sneak attack, and full scale war breaks out. That means Russia could have several million shells as an emergency reserve it doctrinally cannot touch.

For what it’s worth, SBU head Budanov, by the way, said that Russia has already begun receiving the shipments.

So, not only can Russia exceed the total manufacturing capacity of the USA and Europe itself, but it can multiply its own resources by more than a factor of 2 by turning to its allies for additional support.

The important question here is why Russia feels the need to significantly expand its ammunition supply when it is a) winning the war and b) successfully increasing its own domestic manufacturing capabilities. An offensive is one possibility. But the attempt by the USA to open fronts on Russia’s borders in Armenia and Georgia should not be discounted.

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The True Goal of the WereWest

Simplicius answers questions about the NATO-Russian war in Ukraine:

Many people are wondering where is this all leading? Surely the West must know Ukraine stands no real chance of “winning” in any appreciable way, whether we define victory as completely destroying the Russian army or recapturing all the borders back to pre-2022 or even pre-1991 (Crimea).

I believe they do know this. Thus the ultimate goal is not to win kinetically or militarily, but rather to stretch out the conflict for as long as possible in order to create time and space for them to work the more subversive, under the surface war against the Russian public, elites, government, etc. In short, they want to increase the pressure on Russia’s political structures to maximize societal tension and eventually bring about some sort of political turmoil. A coup/maidan-style scenario would of course be ideal for them, even if it’s unlikely.

This is what economic sanctions were all about, as well. Not to mention the blocking of SWIFT, the destruction of Russian culture and repressions against their citizens all over the world—whether it’s bans from Olympics and other international competitions (chess, etc.), or restrictions like the ones just announced, where Russian cars are being banned from entering Europe, Russian people humiliated by customs inspections, etc.

All of this is meant to generate dissatisfaction and most importantly societal fatigue, such that the people will have “had enough” and begin to agitate against Putin and the elites. The Russian presidential election is coming up in March 2024. One ideal scenario for Western planners would have been for people to have gotten so fed up that they oust Putin by choosing a new candidate who promises to “bring an end to the pointless war, and restore Russia’s cherished economic relationships with the West.”

The problem is, all the sanctions failed, all the repressions and humiliations have only unified the Russian people with even more solidarity. New poll numbers just this week show Putin’s approval rating still sky high at 77% while new economic numbers show Russia again making record profits as oil prices have recently gone up, not to mention Russia began decreasing its ‘discounts’ to India and others.

So that was the true goal of the West—to make the war last long enough for them to demoralize Russian society into overthrowing or voting out Putin. Though it’s clearly failed, they likely believe that given enough time it can still succeed eventually, so they will probably keep trying.

When all Clown World has is a hammer, they have to assume the problem is a nail.

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A Decade of War

Germany is prepared to support Ukraine through 2032, even if that means fighting to the very last Ukrainian.

Germany is not daunted by the prospect of a protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and will back Kiev for the next decade, Brigadier General Christian Freuding has said. He added that Berlin is seeking to ensure that Ukraine retakes all the territory within its 1991 borders.

Appearing at the Yalta European Strategy (YES) forum on Sunday, Freuding was asked whether Germany was prepared to support Ukraine if the hostilities with Russia ended up becoming a “long war” spanning several more years. The German military official replied by saying it was unrealistic to expect the conflict to end in the near future.

Freuding went on to claim that “we’ve got the support of our parliament… for our military support for our Ukrainian friends up to the year 2032.”

At the current rate of economic contraction and casualties, another nine years of proxy war with Russia will see Germany’s economy further devastated and virtually every Ukrainian male between the ages of 15 and 70 dead. Especially when Russia is quite clearly prepared for an extended war against NATO and the USA.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday indicated he was bracing for a long war in Ukraine, saying that Kyiv could use any ceasefire to rearm and that Washington would continue to see Russia as an enemy no matter who won the 2024 U.S. election.

Speaking for several hours at an economic forum in Russia’s Pacific port city of Vladivostok, Putin said Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russian forces had so far failed and the Ukrainian army had sustained heavy losses of 71,000 men in the attacks. Only when Ukraine was exhausted when it came to men, equipment and ammunition would it talk peace, he said in reply to questions from a Russian television presenter acting as a moderator.

Russia controls about 18% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea which it annexed in 2014, and a swathe of eastern and southern Ukraine which it seized after invading Ukraine on Feb. 24 last year in what it called a special military operation.

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