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I love Ralph Wiley. He is a writer’s writer. I don’t always agree with him, but his fearless approach to his art is a major influence on my own approach to commentary. But I have to address his analysis of the Green Bay – Philadelpha matchup, as I suspect his desire to champion Donovan McNabb may have led him a little astray here. Of course, the beautiful thing about sports is that, unlike politics, we’ll know who is right this weekend.

RW: Do you really think Ahman Green, the most beautiful running back in ball right now, is going to rush for 150 yards? Are you insane? With the skill of Philly’s corners, Troy Vincent and Bobby Taylor? They can easily single-cover Green Bay’s wide receivers and bring Brian Dawkins down into the box like an extra linebacker — only Dawkins hits harder than most LBs. It’s simply a matter of bringing one more than the Pack O-line can block, much as the McTites did to Baltimore’s Jamal Lewis.

I don’t know if he’ll rush for 150. But I don’t see a defense that couldn’t stop Kevan Barlow shutting him down either. And Donald Driver, Javon Walker and Bubba Franks are not exactly the Baltimore Ravens receiving corps. Philadelphia gives up 130 rushing yards per game, and ranks 8 spots and 20 yard per game worse than Seattle. Green will get his yards, and two TDs as well.

RW: As for waiting for McNabb to nut up, well, you may as well pass the Chunky Soup, be-atch. I seriously doubt that Andy Reid will make the same mistake he made last year with that ultra-conservative game plan, put in maybe because McNabb was coming off that broken leg and limping around. I expect the Eagles to play wide-open; and the Green Bay secondary, as Matt Hasselbeck proved until the last play, is available. McNabb knows what Hasselbeck didn’t (though it was nice to see what the Sea-Dogs had, finally — they’ve got a squad). McNabb knows full well that corner Al Harris likes to sit on routes. He’ll get double-moved in this one.

Matt Hasselbeck: 61 percent completions, 26 TD, 15 INT

Donovan McNabb: 57.5 percent completions, 16 TD, 11 INT

McNabb probably does know it. The problem isn’t his experience or a tendency to choke, the problem is his lack of accuracy. After the double-pump, he’ll overthrow Thrash, then, on the next play, sail one high over the middle right into Darren Sharper’s chest.

Last week: 3-1. I thought the Big Tuna would lead the Cowboys over Carolina.

New England over Tennesee

I don’t see the Titans knocking off a quietly dominant Patriots team even with a healthy Eddie George and Steve McNair. The Patriots don’t seem as talented as a lot of the other teams still standing, but they’re so machine-like and competent it is frightening.

Green Bay over Philadelphia

I went back and forth on this one. It’s dangerous to go against the Sports Guy, and contrary to popular opinion, I don’t hate Donovan McNabb. However, he’s less accurate than Matt Hasselbeck, so he’s not going to pick apart the Green Bay secondary any better than Hasselbeck did, and the Eagles are also weaker against the run than the Seahawks, so they’re not going to stop Ahman Green either.

St. Louis over Carolina

Carolina is the pet upset pick of the experts, but I disagree. Mike Martz is a smart guy, and this year he’s gotten a lot better at not outsmarting himself. When he has to pound, he pounds now, which was never the case in the past. I’ve liked Bulger since seeing him play in his first game against Oakland; I think his higher INT percentage stems from not having Faulk most of the season. If Martz can’t run Marshall against the Carolina line, he’ll have Bulger throw to him out of the backfield, where Faulk is arguably more dangerous.

Kansas City over Indianapolis

Peyton Manning was my fantasy QB this year. When he’s on, which is most of the time, he’s great. But he’s also prone to the occasional inexplicable debacle, and after last week’s destruction of Denver, I suspect payback is due. I think Tony Dungy is a good man and a solid coach, but a mediocre game-day tactician. Vermeil will outcoach Dungy for the win – I’ve seen enough Denny Green teams get outcoached in the playoffs to know how this usually plays out. And who was Denny’s defensive coordinator for more than a few of those? Right. As Bill Parcells showed, a great coach doesn’t need a complete team to win, he just needs something. Parcells didn’t have anything to work with this year; with Holmes, Green, Hall and Gonzalez, Dick Vermeil does.

In fact, the Sports Guy seems to have neglected his own Rule #6: check the coaching matchups. In explaining that rule, he even said: “Tony Dungy: You never hear an announcer say, “This game’s a chess match!” when Dungy’s involved.”

Precisely.

UPDATE: Okay, I was wrong about the Rams, although that one could have just as easily gone the other way, the experts notwithstanding. I figured the Rams were in trouble when they couldn’t punch it in with three separate chances in the red zone. Also, Mike Martz clearly doesn’t have much trust in Bulger, letting the clock run down at the end of the game instead of throwing it into the end zone – rightly so, judging by that last interception on the Carolina 30. And what was up with Carolina failing to call timeout on the kick that should have won the game the first time. Tori Holt’s drop was big too. Strange game, but great to watch. I hope Stephen Davis is good to go for next week. Also, it was nice to see the Panthers win despite getting double-teamed by the Rams and the referees.

Halfway through the 1st quarter of the other game. Titans don’t look good. Brady does. I’ll be shocked if I get this one wrong too.

Adam Hamilton’s analyses have been… less than perfectly successful in the last year, but I can’t really dog him since mine haven’t been any better. We’ve both been wrong-wrong-wrong on the stock markets, and right-right-right on metals. Anyhow, he’s got a very nice analysis of how the price action of the dollar-gold relationship has been revolving around the 200-day moving averages over the last few years.

To sum it up, the dollar’s been firming at .90 of its 200 DMA, while gold’s been peaking at around 1.13. However, if you look at the Relative Dollar and Relative Gold chart you can see that in Elliott Wave terminology, gold appears to be approaching a short-term third of a third top if you count from the low point of spring 2003. If you add into the mix the fact that Rick Ackerman is still looking for $450 on this run, I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a slight correction, one last pop up past the 1.174 previous high, and then the next three-month correction before we start all over again.

I’ll probably dabble a bit with some tactical moves, although with metals I much prefer Richard Russell’s strategy of sit and ride the bull. Strategy has worked much better than tactics for me anyway.

The Evangelical Outpost writes: Must Read List: Vox Popoli — Normally the last thing I want to promote is a “big media” writer who enters the world of blogging. But for a writer as talented and as interesting as Vox Day I’ll make an exception. He’s a syndicated writer and contributor to WorldNetDaily. (I found out today that we have something in common. His column is carried in The Dallas Morning News, which has the ninth largest circulation in the country. I myself used to write a column for a Texas newspaper that had a circulation of nine.)

I also recommend checking out his latest column which deconstructs the false claim that Marine general Anthony Zinni made an anti-Semitic remark. He also has what is still my favorite line of the week. In response to Howard Dean’s claim that his decision to support gay civil unions was informed by his “religious faith,” Vox writes, “Well, in fairness, Howard only said he’d be talking about God. He didn’t say he’d be listening to Him.”

Actually, Joe and I have more in common than that. We are both massive fans of the man Tom Clancy once described as the Warrior Prince of the Marine Corps, former USMC Commandant Charles Krulak. I should probably mention that my column hasn’t started running in the DMN yet, but it will in a week or two. I also think “big media” is probably overstating it by an order of magnitude at this point, but we’ll get there soon enough.

Now that I think about it, this would be a good time to start pestering your local newspaper if you’d like to see my column start appearing in it. Unless they’ve already filled their quota of sardonic Christian libertarian techno-adepts with pop star potential.

I previously predicted a lot of Kobe Bryant columns in Rabbi “I talked to Michael Jackson once” Boteach’s future, so I’m not the least bit surprised that he’s leaping on Britney Spears with alacrity. Our societal enchantment with celebrity is bad enough when it passes for news, but I find it even more distasteful when it invades the commentary page. As if there’s not a thousand more important things about which to opine. I always thought WND was gunning for the New York Times, not the New York Post’s Page Six.

Look, I partied with Hans Lundgren, Guns-n-Roses and David Lee Roth back when I was living in Tokyo. So what? That’s no reason to write columns about them every other week, much less brain-dead celebs I haven’t even met.

The rabbi isn’t the only one guilty of celebrity-chasing. NRO’s Murdock couldn’t resist the temptation either. Neither could Derb, but he: A) was hilarious, B) mercilessly ripped Miss Spears’ talent, celebrity, intelligence and looks, and C) in one smooth flow, dropped a vicious quote from Samuel Johnson, called her the mother of the Antichrist and predicted the Apocalypse. Plus, he’s Derb and he’s down with the One True Dragon, so he can do whatever he wants, in my book.

Shakiest Coach of the Weekend: Brian Billick. Along with offensive coordinator Matt Cavanaugh, it took them three-and-a-half quarters to realize they should be throwing deep downfield to Todd Heap. Really? It took them that long to figure out that their All-Pro tight end might be able to run by the safeties when they were cheating up to stop Jamal Lewis … which was only every play? Don’t these people play video games? It’s the oldest trick in the book! Even early Intellivision had that play (9-4-2-8?).

I can beat the vast majority of gamers at Maddens, from 1992 to 1996 on Genesis, then 1999 to 2004 on PSX and PS/2. But I scoff at anyone who would even dream of taking me on in the brutal endurance test that is Intellivision football – 15-minute quarters baby, the real 15 minutes, none of this latter-day speed-stuff-up nonsense. I played that game by myself for hours, months on end. The only game at which I’m better is US Ski Team Skiiing. Still, the Sports Guy just might give me a game.

Always good to see a fellow fan of the Gold Disc and the Thumb of Power. You know that modern game controllers descend from the Gold Disc, right? Atari 2600 joysticks – pah!

(For those of you experiencing momentary paradigm shift, please be informed that for eight years, I designed, produced and reviewed video and computer games.)

I’m sure you’ll all be surprised that I’m in favor of Killington seceding from Vermont, to better live free or die. Come on, Killington, why not go all the way? There’s nothing to fear, as long as you don’t have slaves. I’m sure the federal government will bid you adieu with wave and a friendly smile, what with all these soon-to-be-legal immigrants receiving the President’s amnesty standing ready to replace you.

We’ll try it out. If it becomes annoying, obscene or too much work to police, I’ll simply remove them.

UPDATE: Don’t worry overmuch about people trying to pollute the forum. The comments don’t show up unless you go out of your way to read them, and I can nuke individual ones anyhow. Nor will this blog become a self-referring circle that revolves around comments posted here. As has been remarked upon before, I have a talent for ignoring that which I wish to ignore.

UPDATE II: That should fix the width problem. Thanks CJ. Also, please email me directly if you are wishing for me to respond to something. I don’t promise that I will, but I’m basically just scanning the comments to make sure that no one is abusing the forum. I’m not policing it for agreement with my positions, only for basic civility and, preferably, a modicum of sense.

John Derbyshire cracks me up: It is a given that one generation doesn’t like another generation’s pleasures. As Dr. Johnson put it in his straightforward way: “Why, Sir, our tastes greatly alter. The lad does not care for the child’s rattle, and the old man does not care for the young man’s whore.” Giving all possible benefit of the doubt to Britney Spears, though, I see nothing redeeming in her act. You can’t even sing the songs yourself, or play them on air guitar. For this Buddy Holly died?

An awful suspicion forms in my mind. The empty lewdness of the stage act; the bottomless nothingness in Britney’s eyes and words; all that emptiness and nothingness and purposelessness; the trashing of our culture’s most hallowed ceremony… for what? Can it be…? Yes! I only hope I can get the word out before they track me down.

Listen: Britney Spears is an instrument of Satan. The poor girl has sold her soul, or had it stolen from her. That travesty of a marriage was not for nothing — it was a union in evil! Its issue will be the Antichrist, and the world will be his dominion. These are the Last Times. You have been warned.

Exit stage left, pursued by a dragon….

I sent the following to the infamous tormentor of puppies after reading a discussion of the RIAA and free downloads on the Blog That Must Not Be Mentioned:

In addition to being a newly syndicated columnist, I happen to be a published novelist. I can assure you, free downloads are a benefit to about 98 percent of all creators because the primary challenge to selling one’s books, CDs, etc is simply letting your potential market know that you exist. It’s hard to sell something to someone who doesn’t know that you or your product are out there.

This is why Hillary Clinton can sell tons of books despite the fact that she can’t – and didn’t – write one. She has enough fame to cut through the clutter. Downloads will hurt the sales of a Stephen King or a John Grisham, but will only help the average writer since it increases the general awareness of his work.

This is why Baen Books and others have seen an uptick in sales since making their wares freely available for download. The percentage of people who’ve heard of the product and become buyers may decrease, but for almost everyone, the increase in the number of people who’ve heard about it more than makes up for any loss.