Author: VD

Despite the usual scientific consensus, Dark Matter increasingly appears to be on its way out. (Dark Vapor, on the other hand, rests on the same secure foundation it always has. I await my Nobel with placid confidence.) And there’s no point whining that it’s scientists who are doing the demolition job; it’s scientists who will eventually demolish TENS and AGW/CC too once they manage to overcome the intellectual inertia imposed by the great scientific unwashed.

More precisely, all classical satellites of the Milky Way – the eleven brightest dwarf galaxies – lie more or less in the same plane, they are forming some sort of a disc in the sky. The research team has also been able to show that most of these satellite galaxies rotate in the same direction around the Milky Way – like the planets revolve around the Sun.

The physicists do belief that this phenomenon can only be explained if the satellites were created a long time ago through collisions between younger galaxies. “The fragments produced by such an event can form rotating dwarf galaxies,” explains Dr. Metz. But there is an interesting catch to this crash theory, “theoretical calculations tell us that the satellites created cannot contain any dark matter.” This assumption, however, stands in contradiction to another observation. “The stars in the satellites we have observed are moving much faster than predicted by the Gravitational Law. If classical physics holds this can only be attributed to the presence of dark matter,” Manuel Metz states.

Or one must assume that some basic fundamental principles of physics have hitherto been incorrectly understood.

I always enjoy the moment when scientists finally throw up their hands and quit trying to draw the elaborate epicycles that permit them to force the square data into the round theory. Perhaps the astrophysicists have finally gotten around to reaching this point. The biologists are rather less bright, so no doubt it will take them rather longer to face the scientific reality.

Of course, they can always take the Keynesian approach. “Make it bigger, then it’ll work for sure!” That will buy them a few decades before it all collapses. But eventually every idea, every scientific concept, must stand or fall on its own merits. Science is not democracy and scientific consensus has no more bearing on the evidence than the book-selling consensus has on literary quality.

The Pentagon knows, or least suspects, that Barack Obama/Soetoro is not eligible for the office he presently purports to hold:

A U.S. Army Reserve major from Florida scheduled to report for deployment to Afghanistan within days has had his military orders revoked after he argued that he should not be required to serve under a president who has not proven his legitimacy for office. His attorney, Orly Taitz, confirmed to WND the military has rescinded his impending deployment orders….

A hearing on the questions raised by Maj. Stefan Frederick Cook, an engineer who told WND he wants to serve his country in Afghanistan, was scheduled for July 16 at 9:30 a.m. “As an officer in the armed forces of the United States, it is [my] duty to gain clarification on any order we may believe illegal. With that said, if President Obama is found not to be a ‘natural-born citizen,’ he is not eligible to be commander-in-chief,” he told WND only hours after the case was filed.

This should get interesting. The courts can’t pretend, as they have done numerous times in the recent past, that Major Cook has no standing. Since the military either knows or suspects that its purported Commander-in-Chief can’t back up his birth claims, they don’t want to take the chance of the issue going to court where Obama/Soetoro will be forced to put up or give up.

Of course, this also means that every soldier who doesn’t wish to serve in Afghanistan or Iraq was just handed a get-out-of-war free card. If Obama/Soetoro does not come clean and release his documentation now to settle the matter, this will be an implicit confession that he is not, in fact, eligible to be president. How can he or his defenders possibly justify hiding all of the relevant documents when it means giving every soldier in the U.S. military a veto on accepting orders?

The mutating stories and multiple hospitals where Obama/Soetoro was supposedly born strongly suggest that America’s first Indonesian faux president is not going to be able to keep a lid on his election scandal much longer.

UPDATE – Major Cook gets fired:

According to the CEO of Simtech Inc., a private company contracted by the Defense Security Services, an agency of the Department of Defense, the federal agency has compelled the termination of Maj. Stefan Frederick Cook.

Well, I’m confident firing the guy asking questions will surely help convince the American people that the Pentagon has the utmost confidence in the provable legitimacy of their Commander-in-Chief. Seriously, don’t they have anyone who understands the way propaganda is supposed to work there anymore? If it were Putin, he would have brought the major to the White House for a very public meet-and-greet, privately shown him whatever real or faked documents would satisfy the man, then sent him off to Afghanistan to win an impressive and posthumously awarded medal.

Folks, come on. She’s an affirmative action judge. What else did you expect?

Seidman: “I was completely disgusted by Judge Sotomayor’s testimony today. If she was not perjuring herself, she is intellectually unqualified to be on the Supreme Court. If she was perjuring herself, she is morally unqualified.”

Stras: “I would say that this is not a judge that understands the role of the federal judiciary. A court without subject matter jurisdiction should not decide the merits of an appeal; it is the very definition of an advisory opinion. What I find ironic is that there are a number of difficult cases where the panel in which Judge Sotomayor participated did not write a reasoned opinion (Didden, Maloney, and especially Ricci), but she wrote a lengthy, reasoned opinion over an issue in which the court had no jurisdiction. Go figure.”

Speaking for myself, I couldn’t possibly care less. I hope they put the Wise Latina on the court along with a black lesbian, a crippled Jew, a Somali jihadist from Minnesota, Michelle Obama, and Bill Clinton. The Supreme Court has been a total farce for decades, better that the farce be made open and apparent to all.

And bring back Rehnquist’s gold lamé-striped robes! Better yet, dress them all in gold lamé burqahs.

The Barefoot Bum gives up:

The world, I now believe, does not want to be saved. Whether the ordinary people close their eyes to the precipice towards which we are rushing headlong, or whether they see and simply do not care, or believe God or science or truth will magically rescue the chosen few, I do not know.

I’m not discouraged by the vitriol of the religious, of the libertarians, of the laissez-faire capitalists. I am, however, discouraged by the vitriol (and worse, the often blithe dismissal) of atheists, philosophers, progressives, socialists and communists, always (to my eyes) for daring to disagree with some item of cherished dogma. Perhaps I’m equally guilty of my own vitriol, but I have always done my best to at least avoid dogmatism, to substantiate my anger with facts and arguments. I have received no such consideration from my detractors. Perhaps I am wrong; I don’t think I’m stupid, but who does?

Perhaps I am myself no better than the ordinary person or my detractors; how can I know what I am blind to? Either way: what use is my work? Even the mostly sensible intelligentsia, from Marx to Myers, attract little more than hordes of ass-kissing sycophants: such is the most I could aspire to. Hell with that….

The world cannot be saved, does not deserve to be saved, does not want to be saved.

It would take the proverbial heart of stone to read this heartfelt cry of godless despair without smiling. There is nothing new under the sun; if the Barefoot Bum had ever truly read the Bible he would realize that he hasn’t figured out anything that wasn’t already explained in Ecclesiastes. And yes, if one’s idea of “intelligentsia”, let alone “mostly sensible intelligentsia”, encompasses both Karl Marx and PZ Myers, I’m afraid the question of stupidity must be conclusively affirmed.

It is not news that the world is damned of its own accord, that it is doomed by its own desires. The Good News is the same today as it was two thousand years ago. You are not forced to follow the way of the world. There is another Way on offer.

Robert Samuelson sums up the consequences:

For the past half-century, federal spending has averaged about 20 percent of GDP, federal taxes about 18 percent of GDP and the budget deficit 2 percent of GDP. The CBO’s projection for 2020 — which assumes the economy has returned to “full employment” — puts spending at 26 percent of GDP, taxes at a bit less than 19 percent of GDP and a deficit above 7 percent of GDP. Future spending and deficit figures continue to grow. What this means is that balancing the budget in 2020 would require a tax increase of almost 50 percent from the last half-century’s average.

It’s amazing that it’s still necessary to explain that increased spending and higher taxes is not the magic formula to increase societal wealth, the mad visions of neo-Keynesian economists notwithstanding. Obama/Soetoro’s decision to attempt taxing foreign profits at the second-highest corporate tax rate in the OECD will absolutely cause large corporations to abandon the USA. There’s no question about it. I drove through Switzerland recently and saw the billboards that McDonalds had put up throughout the country. The pictures of fries and sesame seeds in the shape of Switzerland effectively raised a middle finger to the UK, since the advertisements were announcing the relocation of McDonalds’s European headquarters that had formerly been based in London. And McDonalds is far from the only multinational fleeing the insane British tax regime for more reasonable quarters.

Pew documents some of the differences between scientists and the public:

87% of scientists—but just 32% of Americans in general—say that humans and other living things have evolved over time and that evolution is the result of natural processes such as natural selection. A large gap also exists on the issue of climate change; 84% of scientists—but just 49% of the public—say that the earth is getting warmer because of human activity….

When something is run by gov’t it is usually inefficient and wasteful:
Public Agree: 57%
Scientists Agree: 40%

Ideological self-rating:
Public: 38% moderate, 37% conservative, 20% liberal,
Scientists: 52% liberal, 35% moderate, 9% conservative

It’s a real pity that Pew didn’t subject scientists to the same “science knowledge” test they gave the public; I bet the “shockingly” low results would surprise everyone. Scientists not only know very little outside their professional fields, but they tend to be given to falsely assuming that their very specific expertise and education is somehow magically applicable to the broad spectrum of human knowledge as well. Remember, as a group they were convinced that totalitarianism was the desirable future… many of them still are. Nor should you forget that the mainstream economists’ consensus was that the second stimulus package, Obama’s $787 billion plan, would work too.

No doubt people will interpret these results as proving that scientists are smarter and more educated, and therefore the public should follow their lead. This is absurd, as the results actually show that unlike the public, most scientists are incapable of producing sufficient value to society to financially support themselves; they’re welfare queens living off the reputation of their forebears and eager to keep the taxpayer money flowing. What makes them stupid isn’t their misplaced faith in evolution or AGW/CC, although both will eventually prove embarrassing, but rather their enthusiastic embrace of the very government support that is rendering them largely useless.

Science is far less important to society than business and the ideological freedom that most scientists oppose. Recall that the Soviet Union was devoted to science and spent a higher percentage of its resources on scientists than any nation in the West. The observable historical reality is that science depends on society, society doesn’t depend on science. And yet, as the survey shows, many scientists harbor contempt for the very society that makes their existence possible.

I suspect the main reason scientists tend to be liberal is not because scientific reasoning inclines one towards liberal politics, (five minutes of conversation with any liberal scientist is enough to disprove that notion), but because liberals are inclined to stay in school as long as possible and eventually pursue occupations where they don’t have to earn their living on merit, but receive a guaranteed income handed to them by someone else.

The Federal Reserve rules over the American people, not the Congress:

JUDGE ANDREW NAPOLITANO: Despite growing pressure from the House and ordinary people, the Senate decided not to increase scrutiny on the Federal Reserve. They actually blocked a bid on procedural grounds to have the Government Accountability Office audit the Federal Reserve and issue a report…. How is it that legislation that has more than half the members of the House behind it and is proposed by a staunch conservative Republican like you and then independent socialists like Bernie Sanders is stopped on the floor of the Senate cold before you can even formally introduce it, before you can make a speech in favor of it?

This is no surprise, it’s merely an application of the Golden Rule. It’s no longer possible to pretend that the USA is a constitutional republic. It’s just a bank-run banana republic headed the way of all banana republics. The end game would appear to be in sight as it appears that the parasite has finally taken all it can from the host and soon will have to attempt the dangerous leap to a different one.

History’s engine and the great bear wave

I had the good fortune to attend a lecture given by Robert Prechter this weekend. Prechter is the originator of the fascinating neo-science of socionomics, about which I have previously written, and the purpose of his lecture was to update the Elliott Wave interpretations provided in his 2002 book entitled “Conquer the Crash.” His fundamental thesis is that the U.S. economy is now several years into a depression that will be an order of magnitude larger than the Great Depression of 1929.

On a related note, a recent report from the Washington Business Journal suggests that my estimate in the column of failed bank deposits running 0.77 percent of total bank deposits this year may be too conservative: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is gearing up to handle a large number of bank failures expected as a result of bad mortgages, both in residential and commercial real estate, an economist said Tuesday. “They know they’re going to take down a large number of banks and they can’t do it until they’re staffed up,” said Mark Dotzour, chief economist and director of research for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University.

Bob Prechter began his lecture with an overview of basic Elliott Wave theory. Five waves in impulse wave, odd waves trend, even waves corrective. Three waves indicate countertrend. He talked about long term trends being very difficult to reverse and noted that Random Walk theory has been completely exploded by pattern recognition and statistical improbability of traders being successful over the long term. The question is no longer if there are patterns in the financial markets, but if the patterns can be described by Elliott Wave theory or not. Deflation, not hyperinflation… deflation essays available for free download. Inflationists don’t understand impact of debt imploding. I’ve been agnostic, but it’s clear that nothing has played out the way the inflationists projected thus far.

Just to point out that he hasn’t always been bearish, Prechter showed long term history of oil prices from 1859 to 2009. Very good forecasts by Elliott Wave International people from 1993 through 2009 contra those by mainstream forecasters who are obviously doing nothing more than projecting linear trends from the latest turn. Explained why commodity 5th wave blowoffs tend to be bigger and spikier than equity 5th waves. Commodity throwovers tend to cross the long-term channels on both sides. Says we’re now facing the biggest bear market in oil since 1915, which is an extraordinarily contrarian position at the moment. Comment – does this suggest we’re looking at a new energy source or complete economic collapse? I’d hope the former.

Very interesting section on distinguishing finance from economics. Financial charts show no equilibrium prices; sellers are not supply, not producers. The law of supply and demand doesn’t apply. Comment – so freaking obvious in retrospect, can’t believe I never saw this. Just look at the damn charts, idiot! Indicates ABC mechanism is irrelevant whether shifting goods dynamic or limits of demand. Have to write footnote for new book, possibly appendix if time. I ask Prechter when he started thinking down these lines as it’s not clearly articulated in the books or the EWT, he says around 2003-2004. Paper published in academic journal: The Financial/Economic Dichotomy in Social Behavioral Dynamics: The Socionomic Perspective.

Another question about knowledge of Elliott Waves rendering them useless. Prechter laughs. No shortage of evidence that monetary and fiscal authorities not geniuses capable of ignoring political pressure, let alone mass emotion. Scary symmetry between 1921-1929 and 1974-2000 DJIA charts; look almost identical except latter is 3:1 in time and percentage terms. I was thinking 2x, maybe too conservative. Other indicators include dividend yield, P/E, and bond yield/stock yield ratio. All range 2x to 3x higher than 1929. Could have thrown in relative stimulus packages, credit expansion, and bank failures as percent deposits too.

Seemingly off-base call of 2000 top actually looks quite good in terms of Dow/Gold. Dow/Gold went from 1 in 1980 to 42 (actually 43.7) in 2000. Now down to around 10. Nominal dollar Dow confuses things, surprise surprise, as corrected for inflation Dow would have topped at 847 in 2000, not 14k+. Tends to show that appearance of massive modern wealth is mostly illusory, with the perception upheld by technological advances.

About 20 questions, most technical. I only took notes on those I found interesting:

Q1- what would make him bullish? New Dow high in gold terms to reverse Grand Supercycle call. In other words, not bloody likely.
Q2- Best opportunity approaching appears to be SP500 hitting 1k to 1100. V. nice to ride Wave 3 down, but watch counterparties. One can still lose on a winning bet if the losing bank goes under.
Q3- USD strong when market weak. Should continue to fall as rally continues, then strengthen.
Q4- Social mood is the engine of history. Great book title there. Prechter is clearly well-grounded: “Sometimes they say you’re a genius, sometimes they say you’re a complete idiot. The truth is somewhere in between.” Not interested in trader lifestyle, only did the 1984 trading championship to walk the talk. 440% in four months should more than suffice.
Q5- Tops are diffuse, bottoms tend to be simultaneous. Don’t know if that applies to this depression since 1929 tops were simultaneous and bottoms 1931 Japan, 1932 Europe, and 1933 USA.
Q6- When will this rally end? 2nd wave retracements are strong, not enough bulls yet. Should see 95+ before it’s over.
Q7- I ask about gold dollar price being less relevant since also insurance against dollar disappearing and value of X/0 being infinite. Prechter answers math, not so much point. (Yes, X/0=0, but analogy not equation.) Leaves impression that he’s dubious about dollar replacement, but admits store of value beyond market trading could apply since gold most likely replacement when fiat fails. Doesn’t include Dow/Gold chart in monthly updates because traders don’t care, that’s why they’re in the EWT every four months or so.

Excellent lecture, one of the best I’ve seen. Perhaps a bit more theoretical than some of the traders there were expecting, but Prechter’s not afraid to give specifics when asked. Highly recommended, notes don’t do justice to the give-and-take during the last hour.

The Fraters Libertas salute a past prediction and request one for the future:

Finally, we should note that way back in May of 2004 one pundit read the tea leaves correctly by noting that the idea of Franken winning a Senate seat in Minnesota was not as far-fetched as it seemed at the time…. Congratulations to Vox Day for not underestimating the unpredictable nature of the Minnesota electorate. Perhaps he could gaze once again into his crystal ball and tell us what he thinks about Franken’s reelection chances in… 2014. Sigh. There aren’t going to be a lot of laughs over the next five-and-a-half years, are there?

I can only thank the good Fraters, they are too kind. It’s true, there won’t be many laughs over the course of Franken’s term, but it won’t be the new senator’s fault. In fact, Senator Franken may well provide a small sense of comic relief in much the same way that a chimpanzee dressed in a business suit does. The reality is that Coleman’s loss isn’t in the least bit harmful. If Minnesota must bear the burden of seeing its interests “represented” in the Senate by a Jew born in New York City, an outright Democrat is to be much preferred to a pseudo-Republican like Coleman.

In any case, Franken will not be re-elected in 2014. The Democratic Party is going to be blamed for the worsening economic contraction and the huge tailwinds that helped him win office will be transformed into even bigger headwinds. To me, the question is not whether the country turns away from the Democratic Party after six years of their hapless rule, but whether a third party will finally begin to gain sufficient electoral strength to offer a convincing alternative Republican Party.

I doubt it. It’s highly improbable given the complete failure of the American electorate to recognize the two-party shell game. And yet, it’s still more likely than the probability of Obama and his legislative cohorts remaining popular after the failure of the eighth or ninth straight stimulus package. Remember, we’re already hearing rumors of the third one now and few even recognize that we’re in a depression yet, much less the Great Depression 2.0.