That Would Explain a Lot

Ron Unz delves deeply into a surprisingly compelling theory concerning a) why Israel attacked the USS Liberty, b) why US Secretary of Defense refused to permit the Sixth Fleet to defend it, and c) why the US government aggressively covered up the undeniable fact of Israeli responsibility for the attack:

I had never heard of Peter Hounam and a book entitled Operation Cyanide containing wild talk of World War III in the subtitle certainly multiplied my doubts, but the cover carried a glowing endorsement by the BBC World Affairs Editor, hardly the sort of individual likely to lend his name to crackpots. Moreover, according to the back flap, Hounam had spent thirty years in mainstream British journalism, including a long stint as Chief Investigative Journalist at the London Sunday Times, so he obviously possessed serious credentials.

A bit of casual Googling confirmed these facts and also revealed that in 1987 Hounam had led the Sunday Times team that broke the huge story of Israel’s nuclear weapons program, with the evidence provided by Israeli technician Mordechai Vanunu, just before he was kidnapped by Mossad, returned to Israel, and given a twenty year prison sentence. Hounam certainly had a much more impressive background than I had initally assumed.

The book itself was of moderate length, running perhaps 100,000 words, but quite professionally written. The author carefully distinguished between solid evidence and cautious speculation, while also weighing the credibility of the various individuals whom he had interviewed and the other material used to support his conclusions. He drew upon most of the same earlier sources with which I was already familiar, as well as a few others that were new to me, generally explaining how he reached his conclusions and why. The overall text struck me as having exactly the sort of solid workmanship that one might expect from someone who had spent three decades in British investigative journalism, including a position near the top of the profession.

As Hounam explained on the first page, he had been approached in 2000 by a British television producer, who recruited him for a project to uncover the truth of the attack on the Liberty, an incident then entirely unfamiliar to him. His research of the history occupied the next two years, and included travels throughout the United States and Israel to interview numerous key figures. The result was an hour-long BBC documentary Dead in the Water, eventually shown on British television, as well as the book he concurrently produced based upon all the research he had collected.

As I began the text, the first pages of the Introduction immediately captured my attention. In late 2002, with the book almost completed, Hounam was contacted by Jim Nanjo, a 65-year-old retired American pilot with an interesting story to tell. During the mid-1960s he had served in a squadron of strategic nuclear bombers based in California, always on alert for the command to attack the USSR in the event of war. On three separate occasions during that period, he and the other pilots had been scrambled into their cockpits on a full-war alert rather than a training exercise, sitting in the planes for hours while awaiting the signal to launch their nuclear attack. Each time, they only discovered the event that had triggered the red alert after they received the stand-down order and walked back to their base. Once it had been the JFK assassination and another time the North Korean seizure of the U.S.S. Pueblo, with the third incident being the 1967 attack upon the Liberty.

All of this made perfect sense, but when Hounam checked the pilot’s reported chronology, he discovered that the squadron had actually been put on full war-alert status at least an hour before the Liberty came under Israeli attack, an astonishing logical inconsistency if correct.

Memories may easily grow faulty after 35 years, but this strange anomaly was merely one of many that Hounam encountered during his exhaustive investigation and the facts that he uncovered gradually resolved themselves into the outline of a radically different reconstruction of historical events. Although more than half the book recounts the standard elements of the Liberty story that I had already read many times before, the other material was entirely new to me, never mentioned elsewhere.

President Johnson was a notorious micro-manager, very closely monitoring daily casualties in Vietnam, as well as the sudden new outbreak of war in the Middle East, and he always demanded to be told immediately of any important development. Yet when America’s most advanced spy ship with a crew of nearly 300 reported that it was under deadly attack by unknown enemy forces, he seems never to have been informed, at least according to the official White House logs. Instead, he supposedly spent the morning casually eating his favorite breakfast and then mostly engaging in domestic political chit-chat with various senators.

Declassified documents from the CIA, the NSA, and the Pentagon prove that red-alert messages had been sent to the White House Situation Room almost immediately, and American military policy is that any flash message reporting an attack on a U.S. naval vessel must be immediately passed to the president, even if he is asleep. Yet according to the official records, Johnson—wide awake and alert—received no notice until almost two hours later, after the assault on the Liberty had ended. Moreover, even when finally informed, he seemed to pay little attention to the most serious naval attack our country had suffered since World War II, instead focusing upon minor domestic political issues. Johnson did put in two calls to Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, who according to naval logs minutes later ordered the recall of the carrier planes sent to rescue the Liberty, and Secretary of State Dean Rusk later stated that McNamara would never have made that decision without first discussing it with his president. But based upon the official records Johnson himself had not yet been informed that any attack had occurred.

Indeed, according to the later recollections of Rusk and top intelligence advisor Clark Clifford, during the morning Situation Room meeting two hours later, the Soviets were still believed responsible for the attack, and the participants had a sense that war might have already broken out. Although the Israeli identity of the attackers had been known for more than an hour, most of our top government leaders still seemed to be contemplating World War III with the USSR.

Hounam believes that these numerous, glaring discrepancies indicated the official logs had been altered in potentially very serious ways, apparently with the intent of insulating President Johnson from having learned of the attack and its crucial details until long after that had occurred. The author’s analysis of these severe chronological discrepancies seems quite meticulous to me, covering several pages, and should be carefully read by anyone interested in these highly suspicious events and the seemingly doctored record.

Hounam also focused upon several unexplained elements presented in the books by Ennes and others. There does seem solid if very fragmentary evidence that the Liberty‘s positioning off the Egyptian coast was part of some broader American strategic plan, whose still classified details remain largely obscure to us. Ennes’ book briefly mentioned that an American submarine had secretly joined the Liberty as it traveled to its destination, and had actually been present throughout the entire attack, with some of the sailors seeing its periscope. Although one of the crew had been privy to the classified details, he later refused to divulge them to Ennes when asked. According to some accounts, the sub had even used a periscope camera to take photographs of the attack, which various individuals later claimed to have seen. The official name for that secret submarine project was “Operation Cyanide,” which Hounam used for the title of his book. One heavily-redacted government document obtained by Hounam provides tantalizing clues as to why the Liberty had officially been sent to the coast, but anything more than that is speculation.

There were other strange anomalies. A senior NSA official had been strongly opposed to sending the Liberty into a potentially dangerous war-zone but had been overruled, while the ship’s request for a destroyer escort from the Sixth Fleet had been summarily refused. The day before the attack, top NSA and Pentagon officials had recognized the obvious peril to the ship, even receiving a CIA intelligence report that the Israelis planned to attack, and this led to several urgent messages being sent from Washington, ordering the captain to withdraw to a safe distance 100 miles from the coast; but through a bizarre and inexplicable series of repeated routing errors, none of those messages had ever been received. All of these seemingly coincidental decisions and mistakes had ensured that the Liberty was alone and defenseless in a highly vulnerable location, and that it remained there until the Israeli attack finally came.

Hounam also sketched out the broader geopolitical context to the events he described. Although originally open to friendly relations with America, Egyptian leader Gamal Nasser had been denied promised US assistance due to the pressure of our powerful Israel Lobby and was therefore pushed into the arms of the USSR, becoming a key regional ally, arming his military forces with Soviet weaponry and even allowing nuclear-capable Soviet strategic bombers to be based on his territory. As a consequence, Johnson became intensely hostile towards Nasser, regarding him as “another Castro” and seeking the overthrow of his regime. This was one of the major reasons his administration offered a green-light to Israel’s decision to launch the Six Day War.

In the opening hours of that conflict, Israel’s surprise attack had destroyed the bulk of the Egyptian and Syrian air forces on the ground, and these devastating losses soon led Nasser and other Arab leaders to publicly accuse the American military of having entered the war on Israel’s side, charges almost universally dismissed as ridiculous both by journalists at the time and by later historians. But Hounam’s detailed investigation uncovered considerable evidence that that Nasser’s claims may have been true, at least with regard to aerial reconnaissance and electronic communications.

According to the statements of former American airman Greg Reight, he and his aerial photo reconnaissance unit were secretly deployed to Israel, assisting the attack by determining enemy losses and helping to select subsequent targets. This personal account closely matched the details of the overall operation previously described in Green’s book almost two decades earlier. All these claims were supported by the extremely sharp photos of destroyed Egyptian airfields later released by Israel and published in American news magazines since experts agreed that the Israeli air force did not then possess any of the necessary camera equipment.

A successful Florida businessman named Joe Sorrels provided a very detailed account of how his American intelligence unit had been infiltrated into Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula before hostilities began and set up electronic monitoring and “spoofing” equipment, which may have played a crucial strategic role in enabling the sweeping Israeli victory. There were even claims that American electronic expertise helped locate the crucial gaps in the radar defenses of the Egyptian airfields that allowed Israel’s surprise attack to become so successful.

Hounam also emphasized the likely political motive behind Johnson’s possible decision to directly back Israel. By 1967 the Vietnam War was going badly, with mounting American losses and no victory in sight, and if this quagmire continued, the president’s reelection the following year might become very difficult. But if the Soviets suffered a humiliating setback in the Middle East, with their Egyptian and Syrian allies crushed by Israel, perhaps culminating in Nasser’s overthrow, that success might compensate for the problems in Southeast Asia, diverting public attention toward much more positive developments in a different region. Moreover, the influential Jewish groups that had once been among Johnson’s strongest supporters had lately become leading critics of the continuing Vietnam conflict; but since they were intensely pro-Israel, success in the Middle East might bring them back into the fold.

This provides the background for one of Hounam’s most controversial suggestions. He notes that in 1964, Johnson had persuaded Congress to pass the Tonkin Gulf Resolution by a near-unanimous vote, authorizing military strikes against North Vietnam, but based upon an alleged attack upon American destroyers that most historians now agree was fictional. Although the resulting Vietnam War eventually became highly unpopular, Johnson’s initial “retaliatory” airstrikes just three months before the 1964 election rallied the country around him and helped ensure his huge landslide reelection victory against Sen. Barry Goldwater. And according to Ephraim Evren, a top Israeli diplomat in the U.S., just a few days before the outbreak of the Six Day War Johnson met with him privately and emphasized the urgent need “to get Congress to pass another Tonkin resolution,” but this time with regard to the Middle East. An excuse for direct, successful American military intervention on Israel’s behalf would obviously have solved many of Johnson’s existing political problems, greatly boosting his otherwise difficult reelection prospects the following year.

We must always keep in mind that only a miracle kept the Liberty afloat, and if it had been sunk without survivors as expected, almost no one in American media or government would have dared accuse Israel of such an irrational act. Instead, as Stephen Green had first suggested in 1984, Egyptian forces would very likely have been blamed, producing powerful demands for immediate American retaliation, but probably on a vastly greater scale than the fictional Tonkin Gulf attack, which had inflicted no injuries.

Indeed, Hounam’s detailed investigation discovered strong evidence that a powerful American “retaliatory” strike against Egypt had already been put into motion from almost the moment that the Liberty was first attacked. Paul Nes then served as charge d’Affaires at the U.S. Embassy in Cairo, and in a taped interview he recalled receiving an urgent flash message alerting him that the Liberty had been attacked, presumably by Egyptian planes, and that bombers from an American carrier were already on their way to strike Cairo in retaliation. With an American-Egyptian war about to break out, Nes and his subordinates immediately began destroying all their important documents. But not long afterward, another flash message arrived, identifying the attackers as Israeli and saying that the air strike had been called off. According to some accounts, the American warplanes were just minutes from Egypt’s capital city when they were recalled.

American Pravda: Remembering the Liberty, Ron Unz, 18 October 2021

In other words, the attack on the USS Liberty appears to have been a failed false flag in the USS Maine/Gulf of Tonkin mode, a precursor of the successful 9/11 false flag, and one was intended to justify a US attack on Egypt that may have been intended to be a nuclear strike. It was anti-American treachery on the part of both the Israeli and the US governments of the time, which explains why both governments have so assiduously attempted to silence all of the witnesses and bury all the evidence ever since.

And the Egyptian hypothesis helps clarify the reason 9/11 happened, as a US government willing to enlist a foreign government to sink its own near-defenseless ship, or to blow up a civilian airliner, is obviously one that is willing to permit a few thousand of its civilians to die in order to justify a war it intends to wage in the Middle East. The attack on Afghanistan never, ever, made any sense, not even at the time. The only real question about 9/11 is whether it was the Israeli government or the Saudi government, or both, who were utilized by the US leadership. Logic, combined with the failure of the historical false flag, tends to suggest the Saudis were the responsible party, but the Israelis knew about the planned wars and were observing the operation.

DISCUSS ON SG


Why the US Will Not Defend Taiwan

The question of a US military reaction in the event the Chinese government decides to make use of its military strength to reunify the island with the mainland has been the subject of intense policy debate for years. The US government has encouraged this debate, as its policy of “strategic ambivalence” was specifically formulated in order to prevent the need to make any promises that might need to be broken as well as to add an element of uncertainty to the Chinese leadership’s analysis of the situation.

However, it is abundantly clear that for all its posturing and strong words and saber-rattling, there is no chance that the US military will make any serious attempt to defend the independence of Taiwan island or to intervene in Chinese domestic affairs. There are seven reasons for this.

1. The USA will not risk the conclusive loss of its global status in a single throw.

Since 1989, the US has enjoyed its status as the singular global superpower. But in the aftermath of the astonishingly rapid defeat of Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi military, potential US opponents such as Iran, Russia, and China have intelligently pursued asymmetrical weapons development programs that now permit them to neutralize important aspects of the US military’s advantage. For example, the development of long-range, high-speed anti-ship missiles have eliminated the ability of US carrier groups to enter littoral zones or narrow sea lanes such as the Persian Gulf or the Taiwan Straits without risk.

Since the aircraft carrier replaced the battleship as the chief military symbol of a nation’s power in 1942, the US Navy carrier groups have been the material demonstration of US military dominance to the world. And while refusing to put her carriers at risk to defend Taiwan island would have a negative effect on the global perception of US power, the damage that restraint would do to perceived US status is infinitely less than permitting the world to see one or more USN carriers sent to the bottom of the South China Sea.

2. The American people will not support a war against China.

The American people are tired of the endless wars waged by their government over the last three decades. Despite the best efforts of the warmongering neocons, Americans flatly refused to support calls for invasions of Iran and Syria, and they have welcomed the long-overdue end of the war in Afghanistan. They now eagerly anticipate a final end to the war in Iraq. Unless the People’s Liberation Army were to invade the USA itself, the American people will not support a war against China.

3. The US military is not in any shape to fight a major regional power.

After the ignominious retreat from Afghanistan, the vaccine mandates that threaten to expel 30 percent of its best and most experienced soldiers, the politicization of the ranks above O-6, and the push to include more women, homosexuals, and transvestites, the US military is observably unready for war. At present, it is no more able to dispute the Taiwan Straits with China than it is to contest the Crimea with Russia or even defend its own border with Mexico.

4. Joe Biden is not a credible wartime leader.

Over one-third of Americans believe that the 2020 presidential election was fraudulently stolen from President Donald Trump. This also happens to be the segment of the American population that most strongly supports the U.S. military. And these Americans will not support any military action taken by a man they believe to be an illegitimate and unelected Commander-in-Chief.

5. The USA has nothing to gain and much to potentially lose from a conflict over Taiwan.

What would the American people gain from a successful defense of Taiwan by the U.S. military. Absolutely nothing. At most, the status quo would be maintained, which would provide no actual benefit to any American. But an unsuccessful defense would be severely damaging to world respect for the USA, and a complete military catastrophe would be the first step toward the collapse of the United States as a political entity. To put it in historical terms, any attempt to interfere in the unification of China would run a real risk of becoming the American equivalent of the Athenian Sicilian Expedition.

6. The US government cannot afford a war against its second-largest creditor.

Between the massive public and private debt, the economic lockdowns, the growing number of workers killed and incapacitated by the vaccines, and the huge number of workers being disemployed by the vaccine mandates, the US economy is a shambles. The US government already owes China more than $1 trillion. China obviously will not finance a US war against China, but neither will the US’s leading creditor, Japan.

7. Xi Jinping knows Taiwan.

President Xi knows both Taiwan and the Taiwan people very well. He served as provincial governor for Fujian and Zhejiang, and his success in attracting Taiwan investment into both coastal provinces is considered one of his significant accomplishments. Xi’s objective is unification, by any means necessary, but it is clear that he would prefer the unification to be a peaceful one. And as a leader who has successfully convinced Taiwan capital to join with the mainland in the past, he is very well-positioned to convince the Taiwan people it is in their long-term interest to unify with the mainland rather than resist it.

Ironically, it is the change in the balance of military power in China’s favor that makes a future war in the Taiwan Straits less likely. There are many factors that the Chinese leadership must take into account concerning the ultimate resolution of the unification of Taiwan with the mainland. But a military response by the United States to Chinese action is not one of them.

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D+P=W Confirmed

The UN Security Council admits that diversity causes war:

One by one, South Africa’s former president listed African countries Tuesday where the failure to deal with diversity was a root cause of conflict, from the Biafran war in Nigeria in the late 1960s to the current clashes in Ethiopia’s Tigray region. Thabo Mbeki also cited “the centrality of failure properly to manage diversity” in the conflicts in Congo, Burundi, Ivory Coast and Sudan.

He pointed to the 2004 report of the Sierra Leone Truth and Reconciliation Commission “which tells the naked truth, that it was as a result of the failure to manage diversity that the country experienced a very costly 11-year war which started in 1991” — and there is a similar failure to manage diversity “in the violent conflict which has been and is still going on in Cameroon.”

France’s U.N. ambassador, Nicolas De Riviere, had some additions. In the Sahel region stretching across northern Africa between the Atlantic Ocean and the Red Sea, “terrorist groups use differences to stir up hatred between communities,” he said. And ethnic and religious violence is also prevalent in the Middle East including Iraq, Yemen and Syria.

They spoke at a U.N. Security Council meeting on “Diversity, State Building and the Search for Peace” that was organized by Kenya, which holds the council presidency this month, and chaired by its president, Uhuru Kenyatta. “The key message I wish to deliver today is that poor management of diversity is leading to grave threats to international peace and security,” Kenyatta said.

Sure, they’re trying to talk around the actual problem by blaming the “poor management” of it. But the only way to correctly manage diversity is to eliminate it, either peacefully or with violence. Remember, homogeneous nations are born out of two things: geographic isolation and heterogeneous empires.


US Provides Casus Belli

The US military has now provided China with a legitimate reason to take action in Taiwan. Whether it is intended as bait or whether it’s simply reprehensible stupidity, I cannot say.

Small units of Taiwan’s military ground forces have been trained by a U.S. special operations unit and a contingent of Marines, who have been secretly operating in that country, The Wall Street Journal is reporting.

Some two dozen members of U.S. special-operations and support troops have been conducting the training in an effort to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses in light of concerns about potential aggression by China.

Officials tell the paper that American forces have been conducting the training for at least a year.

To put it in perspective, imagine what the response from Washington would be if Russian Spetsnaz units were secretly operating in Idaho, training small units of “right wing extremists” and “Christian antivaxxers”. Remember, Taiwan is a Chinese province, and there is almost certainly a higher percentage of Taiwanese that wish to be governed by Beijing than Idahoans that want to be governed by Washington.

The Global Times, which is an English-speaking mouthpiece for the CPC, has made it very clear that this sort of foreign military intervention will not be tolerated:

It is impossible for any foreign force to deter or stop the process of China’s reunification as the mainland is determined to crack down on all kinds of foreign intervention and capable of doing so, and could reunify the island by force if necessary, Yuan Zheng, deputy director of the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Thursday.

“The only thing that matters for the US and its allies is that how big a price they want to pay to test China’s strength and determination on this matter,” Yuan noted.

That the island of Taiwan’s attempts to resist reunification by force cannot succeed, and no matter what weapons the Taiwan secessionists make or buy, they cannot change the fact that the PLA has overwhelming advantages in the Taiwan Straits and surrounding areas, analysts said, stressing that once the mainland decides to solve the Taiwan question by force, no weapon can deter the unshakeable determination of 1.4 billion people to realize national reunification.

“PLA presence around Taiwan ‘targets secessionism, foreign forces’”, Global Times, 7 October 2021

The reason that they’re trying to train the Taiwanese forces is pretty obvious, though, as the island’s military has clearly become incapable of presenting the PLA with a hard target as its capabilities have declined relative to those of the mainland.

Two years back I wrote an article for Foreign Policy with the title “Taiwan Can Win a War With China.” In a recent interview with Jordan Schneider I stated that I can no longer endorse the declaration in that title. While I discuss my change of heart on the podcast, I think it is best if I fully write out why my assessment has changed.

I wrote that article in the early Spring of 2018. Around 70% of its contents reflected research presented in Ian Easton’s book, The Chinese Invasion Threat, another 15% or so was drawn from a journal article published by Michael Beckely in the International Security Review, and the last 15% or so drew from my own analysis. A lot of the writing and research behind Easton’s book comes from 2015-2016. Things have gotten worse, not better, since then, and if Easton’s more recent op-ed pieces are a fair judge of his opinions, he has also grown more pessimistic in the years since.

My pessimism is grounded in the nine months I spent in Taiwan in 2019….

You might divide the challenges Taiwan faces into two parts: problems of military strategy and problems of training, culture and morale. These problems can be laid at the feet of the ROC military (especially the ROC Army), but behind them lies another, more serious layer of dysfunction. This layer is more serious because it infects not the military but the civilian leadership tasked with reforming the defense system. Responsibility for military strategy and morale ultimately lies with Taiwanese politicians, and to a lesser extent, the voters who bring them to office. But Taiwan is marred by a dysfunctional civil-military relationship, destructive partisan infighting, and a spirit of defeatism. These political dynamics make it difficult for Taiwan to make the reforms that might guarantee its safety and autonomy.

The problems with Taiwanese military strategy are well known. The essential issues are these: for the last decade, Taiwanese force procurement has been weighted towards expensive, high-end platforms that are high on prestige but of limited utility in an actual conflict with the PLA. 20 years ago doubling down on the high-tech edge made sense, as it was seen as a force multiplier that might counteract the weight of numbers China could throw into the fight. But the situation has changed: the PLA has parity on just about every system the Taiwanese can field (or buy from us in the future), and for some systems they simply outclass the Taiwanese altogether. The Chinese thus not only have more equipment, but better equipment on top of it.

“Why I Fear For Taiwan”, Tanner Greer, 11 September 2020

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This is Anti-Vaxxism

Rural Guatamalans show the rest of the world how it’s done:

Vaccine opposers in a Guatemalan village captured two medical teams that arrived with C0VID-19 vaccines. The wheels were lowered to cars, the exit road was blocked, refrigerators with vaccines were destroyed, and doctors were locked up and threatened to burn.

It’s a sad day in American history when Guatamalan villagers demonstrate that they are much more willing to stand up for their health, freedom, and human rights than anyone in the USA. Meanwhile, in Canada, the Vaxx Preacher-in-Chief is publicly demonstrating why the Guatamalan response is the correct one:

Fauci boldly told Canadians who oppose vaccine mandates that they have “no right to make their own decision about what goes into their body” during the presentation, which outlined how the world continues to battle with the Covid pandemic. He said: “there comes a time when you do have to give up what you consider your individual right of making your own decision.”

That hissing sound you hear is the West’s ownership of the rhetorical high ground deflating like a balloon with a hole snipped out of it. A cartoonishly dystopian future when scientists, doctors, and pharmacists are hunted down like rabid dogs by vengeful victims and angry parents suddenly appears to considerably more probable than even a pessimist would have ever imagined just one year ago.

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Calling For the Green Light

Apparently I’m not the only one who has concluded that there’s no time like the present. This was discussed in some detail on Darkstream 751: Drums, Drums, In The Deep. Courtesy of Jack Posobiec:

Taiwan stuff heating up more than people realize

This isn’t just posturing

There are top Chinese generals telling Xi they want the green light

The Chinese can’t reasonably assume that the USA will have such feeble leadership, both civilian and military, at any point in the near future. They respected Trump and worried about his unpredictability. Even if we assume they don’t actually own Biden – and there is more than a little evidence that at least have substantial leverage over him – literally no one respects or even regards him.

While the posturing isn’t just on China’s side, the posturing from Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party isn’t exactly what one would call convincing. Australians haven’t lifted a finger to defend their own freedom, so they’re certainly not going to fight China for Taiwanese independence.

Taiwan’s regional leader Tsai Ing-wen on Tuesday published an article, entitled “Taiwan and the Fight for Democracy”, in Foreign Affairs Magazine, claiming that “If Taiwan were to fall, the consequences would be catastrophic for regional peace and the democratic alliance system.” It seems that the Tsai authorities are really scared, anticipating that their secessionist attempt has gone to a virtual dead end. They, as an anti-China outpost of US’ Indo-Pacific Strategy will sooner or later be wiped out by the Chinese mainland, but they have a severe lack of confidence that the US and its allies will fully defend the island. In this context, Tsai penned the article to underline the current peril, calling on the US and its allies to strengthen their commitment to the Taiwan island and to deter the Chinese mainland.

There is no force in the world whose will to “defend Taiwan” is stronger than China’s will to fight against secession and achieve reunification. To be precise, they are completely incomparable. China dares to have a life-and-death fight against any force that hinders our reunification, but no force dares or is willing to fight to the death against the world’s second largest economy, as well as a nuclear power, in order to prevent China’s reunification.

Tsai authorities understand this point.

“Taiwan’s Tsai turns to masters for help out of fear of catastrophic consequences”, Global Times, 5 October 2021

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China Beats the War Drums

A record number of warplanes took part in drills over the Taiwan Straits yesterday:

The combat group of 56 marked a new record-high in the number of PLA warplanes taking part in the drills near the island of Taiwan in a day, surpassing the previous record of 39 which was just set two days ago and 38 set three days ago.

At least 149 PLA warplanes have joined exercises near the island of Taiwan since the start of the National Day holiday on Friday, during both days and nights, according to releases by the island’s defense authorities.

Monday’s exercise came after the US Department of State released a press statement on Sunday, voicing “concern” over the Chinese mainland’s military activity near the island of Taiwan, claiming it was provocative.

In response to the statement, Hua Chunying, a spokesperson from China’s Foreign Ministry, said on Monday that Taiwan is part of China, and the US has no right to make irresponsible comments on the Taiwan question.

The US statement severely violates the one-China principle and three China-US joint communiqués, and sends very wrong and irresponsible signals, Hua said, noting that the US has been making aggressive moves including arms sales to Taiwan, landing military aircraft on the island and sending warships through the Taiwan Straits.

China will take all measures necessary to crush any “Taiwan independence” attempts, Hua said. “‘Taiwan independence’ is doomed to fail.”

And the Global Times made it clear that this action was a highly specific warning of an invasion made in response to the recent statement made by the US State Department:

The intensive actions of the PLA Air Force are not only a severe warning to the secessionist Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities on the island, but also clearly portrayed the severity of the situation across the Taiwan Straits, and at the same time gave a clear warning to the supporters of the DPP authorities.

The peaceful atmosphere that existed in the area only a few years ago has all but disappeared, and the DPP authorities now openly refer to PLA fighters as “enemy aircraft”. They have constantly hyped up claims that they are at the forefront of the so-called democratic world to resist “authoritarian rule”. The strategic collusion between the US and Japan and the DPP authorities is becoming more audacious, and the situation across the Taiwan Straits has almost lost any room for maneuver teetering on the edge of a face-off, creating a sense of urgency that the war maybe triggered at any time.

The secessionist forces on the island will never be allowed to secede Taiwan from China under whatever names or by whatever means, and, the island will not be allowed to act as an outpost of the US’ strategic containment against China.

After Tsai Ing-wen came to office, the status quo of peaceful cooperation across the Taiwan Straits was disrupted. The US government and the DPP authorities are trying to deeply integrate the island into the US’ Indo-Pacific strategy targeting China. The Chinese mainland will not tolerate the integration of the island and the US.

The curtain of preparations for a comprehensive military struggle by the Chinese mainland has obviously been drawn open. The PLA’s military drills in the Taiwan Straits are no longer limited to declaring China’s sovereignty over the island, but to implement various forms of assembly, mobilization, assault and logistical preparations that are required to take back the island of Taiwan. Without giving up efforts for a peaceful reunification, it has increasingly become the new mainstream public opinion on the Chinese mainland that the mainland should make earnest preparations based on the possibility of combat.

Of course, given that Biden is almost certainly beholden to Beijing, if not an outright puppet,, it appears his fake administration is providing the CPC with precisely the casus belli it appears to be seeking.


China’s New Nevsky Film

From Infogalactic:

Alexander Nevsky is a 1938 Soviet historical drama film directed by Sergei Eisenstein. It depicts the attempted invasion of Novgorod in the 13th century by the Teutonic Knights of the Holy Roman Empire and their defeat by Prince Alexander, known popularly as Alexander Nevsky (1220–1263).

The picture was released in December 1938, and became a great success with audiences: on 15 April 1939, Semen Dukelsky – the chairman of the State Committee for Cinematography – reported that it had already been viewed by 23,000,000 people and was the most popular of the films made in recent times.

After 23 August 1939, when the USSR signed the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, which provided for non-aggression and collusion between Germany and the Soviet Union, Alexander Nevsky was removed from circulation. But the situation reversed dramatically on 22 June 1941 after the German invasion of the Soviet Union, and the film rapidly returned to Soviet and western screens.

From Global Times:

Korean War film breaks records, has implications for today’s China-US competition

One day after the Chinese war epic film The Battle at Lake Changjin about the Korean War (1950-53) debuted on Thursday, its box office surpassed 516 million and broke 10 film records as of press time. Observers said the movie’s success shows the national feeling displayed in the film echoes the rising public sentiment in safeguarding national interests in front of provocations, which has great implications for today’s China-US competition.

The overall box office for the movie has surpassed 516 million yuan as of press time, one day after it debuted around the country on Thursday, according to data compiled by Lighthouse, a box office tracker and film big data platform owned by Alibaba Pictures.

The film leads the box office as it smashed ten box office records on Friday, including “the premiere day box office record,” “single day box office record,” and “cumulative box office record in the National Day holiday” as a historical film.

The film also reports a record in “the premiere day box office record” and “single day box office record in the past three years,” “the single day box office record during National Day holiday,” and “single day box office record,” as a war film.

Besides that, the film also reported a record in the number of screenings on the premiere day in the National Day holiday.

The film tells the story about how Chinese People’s Volunteers (CPV) soldiers held their ground amid fierce cold and the enemy’s more advanced weapons during the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea (1950-53).

A movie-goer who watched the film on premier day commented on Chinese social media Sina Weibo that after watching the film, they indeed had the feeling that Chinese people are not, and have never been, afraid of the US.

The CPC is clearly preparing the Chinese people for direct conflict with the US military. And it’s not a great mystery as to the proximate cause, in light of this breathtakingly hypocritical statement by the US State Department:

In a threatening statement on Beijing’s “destabilizing” military moves that was published on Sunday, the US State Department warned China against even diplomatically and economically pressuring Taiwan in its own interests. In the statement, United States spokesperson and former CIA intelligence officer Ned Price warned China that the US was “very concerned” by its “provocative military activity near Taiwan, which is destabilizing, risks miscalculations, and undermines regional peace and stability.”

“We urge Beijing to cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure and coercion against Taiwan,” Price wrote.

Claiming the US had “an abiding interest in peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” Price said it would “continue to assist Taiwan in maintaining a sufficient self-defense capability” and affirmed that its commitment to Taiwan was “rock solid.” “We will continue to stand with friends and allies to advance our shared prosperity, security, and values, and deepen our ties with democratic Taiwan,” the statement concluded.

And just in case you’re still not capable of connecting the dots, Global Times was kind enough to explain the purpose of the PLA’s now-daily flights over the island of Taiwan.

The PLA has done an excellent job! This can be seen as a form of the National Day military parade in the Taiwan Straits, which used to be held at the Tiananmen Square in Beijing. It is a clear and unmistakable declaration of China’s sovereignty over the island. This is apt given the 72nd anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, greatly encouraging people nationwide, and highlighted and emphasized to a new height the special significance of the National Day.

The 38 and 39 warplanes dispatched in two consecutive days to the exercise during the day and night near the island of Taiwan were not a guard of honor. They are fighting forces aimed at actual combat. The increase in the number of aircraft showed the PLA Air Force’s operational capabilities. The warplanes that gathered over the Straits were possibly dispatched from different airports, showing the strong ability of the PLA to form a wartime air attack.

According to statistics from Taiwan island, the PLA has sent warplanes into the island’s “airspace” in 198 days so far this year. Such a number reflects that the PLA has carried out wide-ranged and profound operations to familiarize itself with battlefield conditions, with a large number of PLA Air Force units having experience flying close to the island. Once the order to attack is given, the PLA’s pilots will fight as “experienced veterans.”

At this point, it would be surprising if China didn’t publicly demand Taiwan’s submission before the end of the year. While it could all be for show, the time it has taken to prepare for this massive, multi-stage propaganda campaign tends to indicate otherwise. Unfortunately, the fact that the US refuses to back down and stay out of what is an internal Chinese matter makes it much more likely that there will be at least a few unnecessary shots fired before the inevitable plays out.

UPDATE: The PLA upped the ante again today.

China has flown 52 aircraft into Taiwan’s airspace in its single largest mission to date – marking a dramatic escalation of tensions around the South China Sea island. Taipei said 34 J-16 fighters accompanied 12 H-6 nuclear-capable bombers, two Su-30 jets and other military planes into its ‘air defence identification zone’ on Monday.

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About Time

The French finally start sinking the ships:

French police have shot migrants with potentially lethal rubber bullets to stop their illegal boat crossing the Channel to the UK.

An investigation by French national police authorities was under way last night into the first known case of gun tactics to halt a migrant boat launch.

It marks a major escalation of tension on the beaches as gendarmerie night patrols struggle to control the armada of boats heading for Britain.

The shooting happened in darkness at Dunkirk as eight Iranian Kurds carried a dinghy towards the sea. It was destined to bring 40 migrants from France.

Two Iranian Kurds hit by the bullets were taken to hospital, one with a fractured leg and the other with a broken hand. Those carrying the boat claim that the group of gun-toting police laughed at them as their injured comrades fell to the ground.

It won’t be long before they stop using rubber bullets. They should have started using them back in 2015. There is no meaningful difference between invasion and mass immigration. They are just different stages of warfare.

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The End of Avoidance

I think we can safely conclude that the Chinese military is no longer being guided by the philosophy of Tao Guang Yang Hui, or “to hide one’s capabilities and bide one’s time.”

The Chinese-made historical war epic The Battle at Lake Changjin, which focuses on a major battle in the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea (1950-53), will debut in Chinese theaters on Thursday. The film is expected to be China’s highest grossing film of the year.

As the most expensive film in Chinese film history with a budget of over 1.3 billion yuan ($201 million), the film was filmed through the joint effort of four Chinese heavyweight filmmakers, directors Chen Kaige (Farewell My Concubine), Lam Chiu-Yin (Operation Red Sea) and Tsui Hark (The Taking of Tiger Mountain) and executive producer Huang Jianxin (The Founding of a Republic).

As the two directors from Hong Kong, Lam and Tsui pointed out that as Chinese, they needed to understand why “we fought this war and how we won.”

“We put a lot of shots of the US military in the film because this was a battle between China and the US. The US military is not an abstract symbol, but the army of a country. After World War II, the US military was very strong, making them believe they could control the world situation. However, when the war began, they did not expect that the power of China would be so great, and that Chinese power was what they had to learn. In order to maintain the authenticity of the war, we needed to feature the US military’s response,” Tsui told the Global Times.

Subtle. As a general rule, it’s a reliably ominous sign when your potential enemy begins making propagandistic war films that feature you as the bad guy. There is a reason that for decades, every Hollywood movie has featured white Europeans, preferably with English accents, as the bad guys, to the point that they’re still trying to cram Nazis into every film 76 years after the end of National Socialism.

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