A Failed Modus Operandi

Simplicius believes the recent conflict suddenly ended by the US-imposed ceasefire reflects a third, and more serious, failure by the Israeli military:

It is now clear that Israel relied on a favored go-to modus operandi in its past three conflicts. Israel has now lost against Hamas, lost against Hezbollah, and lost to Iran. Each time, its face-saving strategy was to “decapitate the leadership”, particularly the well-known personalities like Nasrallah, Haniyeh, etc., and pretend this is somehow a war winning stroke.

In reality, it did nothing each time. Israel still lost the fight on the ground—or in the air, as it were, against Iran. Israel’s putrid army proved incapable of winning real conflicts and had to rely entirely on PR victories and America’s bank to fund various sabotage and extortion schemes against enemy political and military figures.

Think about it this way: in ten or twenty years, what will be remembered about today, the names of a few random “Iranian generals” that Israel “masterfully killed” via cowardly sneak attacks, or the fact that Israeli cities burned for the first time, Israel failed to defang Iran’s nuclear program, and flopped at every other major objective it had, including regime change?

The fact is, Israel suffered an historic humiliation that has destroyed its mystique and reputation as some kind of ‘military juggernaut’ forever. Iran can now learn from its mistakes, rebuild the few launchers and AD systems it lost, and potentially sign new pacts with Russia-China that can expand its defense capabilities.

It is interesting, however, that Iran’s airforce did not seem to participate at all—some experts suggest Iran likely relocated it entirely to the far east of the country and simply kept it out of harm’s way for the duration. Given that Israel’s air-farce was also a no-show over the country, one supposes it wasn’t an altogether bad idea.

In fact, Iran masterfully conserved its limitations and leveraged its greatest advantages during this conflict, thus limiting the damage it suffered. Too bad we’ll never know the full extent of Iran’s missile capabilities given how desperately Israel guarded any ‘sensitive’ damage leaks about the strikes on its territory. But due to how uncharacteristically quickly Israel leaped at the ceasefire offer, logic dictates that the damage Iran meted was significant and unsustainable.

In the aftermath of a narrowly-avoided disaster, we should keep in mind the Israeli triumphalism from less than two weeks ago:

  • The decision to start a war was all Netanyahu’s. And here he is, deciding and responsible: all the credit is his. Trump gave Israel the green light to start a war, provided that it does not present America as a partner and responsible. – Nahum Barnea (Yedioth Ahoronot)
  • The need for the series of assassinations last week first emerged as a thought last September, among senior officials in Unit 8200, the research division in the Intelligence Directorate, the Mossad, and other parts of the system. The trigger was the defeat inflicted by the IDF on Hezbollah, followed by the successful attack on Iran and the destruction of its air defence system in October, followed in December by the collapse of the Assad regime in Damascus and the destruction of its air defence system by the IDF. The sequence of events led many senior Israeli officials to believe that an unprecedented opportunity had arisen, a window of a lifetime, to attack Iran. – Ronan Bergman (Yedioth Ahoronot)
  • Ten days ago, on the eve of Israel’s historic action, I stood here and placed a note that read: ‘Behold, a nation shall rise like a lion’. Now, ten days later, I return to the same place and leave a note that reads: ‘Behold, a nation has risen like a lion – the Nation of Israel lives!’ – Benjamin Netanyahu

And just like that, in less than two weeks, the window of a lifetime is closed. The thinking of the senior Israeli officials appears to have been very much as an Israeli who knows his country’s elite and is well-versed in their thinking once described it to me: tactical cleverness with neither interest in nor aptitude for strategy.

The fundamental problem that Israel, as a country, and AIPAC as a political control device, have is that rhetoric, subversion, and clever tactical maneuvers only work so long as you’re not actually responsible for making things work, feeding everyone, keeping the lights on, and actually winning wars rather than a skirmish here and there. The reason Israel – and the Israel-influenced USA – always rely on regime change instead of military victory as the primary objective is because they are locked into a subversive and short-term mindset.

But sooner or later, when those who are influenced over inevitably comprehend that your grand plans for the future requires not only their suppression, but elimination, they’re not going to respond favorably to all the subversion anymore. Which is why Clown World lost Russia, why it lost China, and why it will lose America as soon as the indoctrinated Boomers lose their political and societal influence. No amount of belief in one’s intrinsic superiority or sociopathic indifference to everyone else, however genuine, are ever going to compensate for a complete inability to run a stand-alone society, let alone a regional empire. But no failing empire, however small, ever fades away gently into the historical night.

Translation: false flags are coming. The assumption is New York City, given the growing hysteria over Zohran Mamdani’s apparent victory in the Democratic primary for the Mayor’s office, and the sinking of the USS Nimitz, but they could take place in anywhere, in any form.

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NATO Takes Aim at China

Fresh from losing a proxy war to Russia, the brilliant strategists at NATO are now preparing for war with China over Taiwan. Rhetorically, anyhow:

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte issued a warning highlighting that the “massive” military buildup in China raises the risk of a potential invasion of Taiwan, potentially dragging Russia into this and impacting European security.

“We have this close relationship with Japan and the Republic of Korea, Australia and New Zealand, exactly for the reason that these countries are very, very worried about the massive military buildup in China that at the moment is taking place,” Mark Rutte said ahead of the Nato summit in The Hague, the Independent reported.

Rutte speculated that if China attempt to attack or invade Taiwan, then there is a possibility that Beijing would draw in Vladimir Putin, who would create trouble in Europe to divert the attention and resources of NATO. ‘We are all very worried, of course, about the situation in Taiwan. And we also know there is a risk that if the Chinese will try anything with Taiwan, that no doubt he will call his junior partner, Mr Putin, and make sure … he will keep us busy here, if that would happen’, he added.

He also noted in his pre-summit address that the rapid expansion of military capabilities of China was evident from the global rise of its defence firms. “We know that out of the 10 biggest defence companies, only a couple of years ago, you would not find any Chinese companies. At this moment, you will find three to five Chinese defence companies in the top 10 of the biggest defence companies in the world. This shows you that this massive buildup is taking place and is having a huge impact, also when it comes to the defence industrial production of China,” he also said.

Neither NATO nor the USA can fight China. We’ve already seen that the collective might of NATO can’t do anything more than slow Russia down, and the combined alliance of Israel and the USA was able to settle for an inconclusive draw with Iran.

China has more people, a larger military, and far more formidable industrial capacity than Russia and Iran combined. If China wanted to take Canada, there isn’t anything anyone could do about it, let alone Taiwan.

So expect reunification with the mainland within the next decade, and most likely a reunification as peaceful and devoid of global drama as the resolution of the Hong Kong situation was. And the first sign of it coming will likely be either South Korea or Japan “unexpectedly” changing sides and signing some kind of alliance with China.

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More Kabuki

Iran launched at least 10 missiles at two U.S. military bases Qatar and Iraq on Monday in response to President Donald Trump bombing its nuclear labs over the weekend. Tehran targeted Al Udeid Air Base in Doha – where more than 10,000 American troops and 100 aircraft, strategic bombers and tankers are stationed – in a strike as President Trump convened his national security team at the White House. US officials had evacuated at least 40 aircraft from the base in recent days and moved an unknown number of troops, and said after Monday’s retaliation that ‘at this time, there are no reports of US casualties.’

Kabuki confirmed. Apocalypse-minded Christian Zionists hardest hit.

Iran coordinated the attacks on the American air base in Qatar with Qatari officials and gave advanced notice that attacks were coming to minimize casualties, according to three Iranian officials familiar with the plans. The officials said Iran symbolically needed to strike back at the U.S. but at the same time carry it out in a way that allowed all sides an exit ramp; they described it as a similar strategy to 2020 when Iran gave Iraq heads up before firing ballistic missiles an American base in Iraq following the assassination of its top general.

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US Begs China for Help

Are we seriously supposed to believe that no one in the Trump administration took the probability of Iran restricting global oil supplies into account?

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on China to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping routes. His comments came after Iran’s state-run Press TV reported that parliament had approved a plan to close the Strait but added that the final decision lies with the Supreme National Security Council.

Any disruption to the supply of oil would have profound consequences for the economy. China in particular is the world’s largest buyer of Iranian oil and has a close relationship with Tehran.

Oil prices rose following the US attack on Iranian nuclear sites, with the price of the benchmark Brent crude reaching its highest level in five months.

“I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them [Iran] about that, because they heavily depend on the Straits of Hormuz for their oil,” Rubio had said in an interview with Fox News on Sunday. “If they [close the Straits]… it will be economic suicide for them. And we retain options to deal with that, but other countries should be looking at that as well. It would hurt other countries’ economies a lot worse than ours.”

I would be too sure about that, given the way China obviously foresaw the need to avoid utilizing the more traditional sea routes.

On May 25, 2025, the first freight train from Xi’an, China, arrived at the Aprin dry port, Iran, marking the official launch of a direct rail link between the two countries. This new logistical artery significantly reduces transit times (from 30–40 days by sea to roughly 15 days by land) yielding a direct impact on transportation costs. This railway is part of a much larger and broader East-West Corridor that is designed to link China, physically, with a trade route directly to Africa, and to Europe, without having to use the more traditional sea trade routes.

An oil tanker carries between 500k and 2 million barrels of oil. 18.5 million barrels transit the Straits of Hormuz every day, which means about 18 tankers per day. China utilizes 16 million barrels per day, although obviously not all of it comes through the Straits.

A rail tanker car carries 700 barrels and Canada ships 150,000 barrels by rail every day from the Albert oil sands. Taking the faster rail delivery time into account, it would require 9,150 rail cars to replace those 16 daily tankers, and a total of 274,500 rail cars to meet the daily oil requirements without a hitch. That sounds like a lot, until you observe that the China Railway Rolling Stock Corp. is the world’s leading manufacturer of rolling stock, with the capacity to manufacture over 500 high-speed train sets, 12,000 subway cars and 50,000 freight cars per year.

I think it is safe to assume that China has already built the 300k or so freight cars required to replace the 1,120 sea tankers that historically supplied it, given that they didn’t just start building the Aprin-Xi’an link in 2024 and the two countries signed an economic cooperation pact in 2021.

However, China doesn’t transport all its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. It only obtains about one-third of it that way, 5.1 million barrels per day. So it only needs a total of 87,500 freight cars to substitute for that particular source. Which, one notes, the Chinese could have completed before the launch of the railroad if they started manufacturing them as recently as August 2023.

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MIGA is Backpedaling Fast

Vice-President Vance: We did not attack the nation of Iran. We did not attack any civilian targets. We didn’t even attack military targets outside of the three nuclear weapons facilities.

US Vice President J.D. Vance does not support his country’s involvement in the conflict between Israel and Iran, Reuters has reported, citing two informed sources.

Trump, Vance, and all the newly-converted neoclowns aren’t MAGA. They’re MIGA and now the whole world knows it. Trump has made the mistake of thinking that just because he jumped in front of the parade, the parade will go wherever he wants to go.

They’re all confirmed to be the owned property of Clown World. No matter how they spin and produce their own magic word spells, it’s not going to fool anyone who genuinely wants to make America great again, because foreign wars on behalf of AIPAC and Israel are exactly what has turned America into a pale and weak shadow of what made it great in the first half of the 20th century.

The stealth jet squadron slipped into enemy skies, moving into attack formation at ‘high altitude and high speed’, with lighter, more mobile F-22 fighter jets sweeping in front of the B-2s to shield them from any surface-to-air or air-to-air fire. There was none. Not a single shot was fired at any of the aircraft or warships involved in Midnight Hammer from the beginning of the operation to its end.

And that wasn’t suspicious at all? Nothing has been able to fly safely over Ukraine or Russia for the last three years, but USAF jets are just so gosh darn sneaky that Iran didn’t even lift a finger to try to stop them…

Sounds like another green flag to me.

Simplicius has reached a similar conclusion:

Iran knew the exact epicenter the B-2s would have to converge on and yet was unable to even attempt to engage them? Could the scriptwriters have written a more schlockily improbable series of events? They could have at least added a few ‘glory moments’ of F-35s and F-22s shooting down a couple Iranian fighter craft for effect.

Recall that the US was having severe problems even operating just outside of Yemeni airspace, with not only F-35s nearly shot down, but two F-18s lost to panicked defensive maneuvers, as well as one other shot down by US air defense, and a fourth “nearly shot down” in the same operation.

So, Houthi air defenses can engage F-35s, but an entire sky swarming with B-2s, F-35s, F-22s, and other planes were not detected at all by Iran, whose IADS is likely dozens of times stronger than Yemen’s? Keep in mind the Pentagon spokesman also said the strike package included fourth generation craft that flew all the way to central Iran, which presumably refers to F-16s and F-15s—but for some bizarre reason Iran “never fired a shot”.

Sound suspicious to anyone else?

And after all these strikes, countless claims of Israeli “total aerial control”, there is still not a single video of a foreign craft over the skies of Iran. The B-2s were even seen flying back over New Jersey on their ‘heroe’s return’, yet no one in a nation of 90 million saw or heard anything on this most ‘mysterious’ of nights.

Something’s rotten in the state of HasbarAmerica.

So, yes, I’m convinced Iran decided to take US’ offer and allowed safe passage of the strike package to rain a few insignificant ‘token’ strikes on Fordow with the understanding that this was the US’ price for exiting the conflict.

Now, there are rumors that Israel may use the given ‘off-ramp’ as pretense to likewise conclude a new deal and end hostilities, given that Israel has exhausted itself and is now losing a war of attrition against Iran.

Indeed, there has been what appears to be a certain amount of excessive bluster and over-the-top playacting of late.

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Team Trump and Bibi

That’s the word right from the short, fat Trump’s mouth:

President Donald Trump addressed the nation on Saturday night after announcing strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites via Truth Social. Speaking from the Oval Office accompanied by Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, the President said, “Tonight, I can report to the world that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated. Iran, the bully of the Middle East, must now make peace. If they do not, future attacks would be far greater and a lot easier.” He also reached out to Israeli leadership, saying, “I want to thank and congratulate Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu. We worked as a team. Like perhaps no team has ever worked before, and we’ve gone a long way to erasing this horrible threat to Israel.”

Meanwhile:

  • Iranian state radio: the Fordow nuclear facility sustained no significant damage in the US strike.
  • IDF officials: there is a slim possibility the Fordow facility was not destroyed.
  • Iran’s Center for the National Nuclear Safety System: confirmed the attack, but said that emergency inspections at the affected facilities have found no signs of radioactive contamination or leaks.
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency: no increase in radiation levels has been reported at Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan.

Remember, the one thing the media never, ever, reports is the real story and the actual truth. And everything about Clown World is fake and gay.

The one thing that we can be sure of is that if a) nukes are real and b) the Iranian capacity for building them remains sufficiently intact, the Iranians are going to acquire some nukes in short order. I’d be shocked if they didn’t already acquire some from North Korea or Pakistan.

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The Iranian Expedition

It appears Trump decided to bend the knee to Clown World in the end. Every empire seems to end this way, with imperial overstretch. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Pax Americana is going the way of its predecessors.

It’s disappointing, but after the vaxx debacle and the failure to cross the Rubicon, hardly surprising.

This is yet another betrayal of the American people by yet another president who clearly does not have its national interests in mind. Even if it initially looks as if things are going well for this course of action, well, Iraq and Afghanistan looked pretty good too… at first.

Trump turning neoclown also implies that the USA will renew its military and financial support for Ukraine.

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Why Pakistan Backs Iran

Despite launching attacks on each other in 2024, Iran and Pakistan have found common ground against Israel for a very good reason: Israel has attacked both countries since May 2025:

It was only early last year that Iran launched missile and drone strikes into Pakistan’s Balochistan region on 16 January, targeting extremist militant group Jaish al-Adl positions. Pakistan retaliated two days later on 18 January, conducting air and missile strikes into Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province in an operation dubbed Marg Bar Sarmachar. The tit-for-tat was remarkably friendly in the final analysis, and appears to have settled some critical border cooperation issues between the two states.

The fact that these former adversaries – who had just engaged in direct military exchanges – have now adopted “resolute solidarity” is nothing short of breathtaking.

Beijing’s embrace of Iran is grounded in energy security and strategic depth instead. Its ambitious, multi-trillion dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aimed at linking the Eurasian landmass hinges on the stability of Tehran and Islamabad, with the Gwadar and Chahbahar ports forming key arteries in China’s westward expansion. China also supplies J-10 fighter jets and HQ‑9 air‑defense systems to Pakistan, which played key roles in the extraordinary May 2025 skirmish between India and Pakistan – marking major testing ground for Chinese weapons. A parallel circumstance is present in Iran. China must acknowledge Iran because it is a crucial supporter of China’s energy needs and trade operations.

“The enemy of my friend is my enemy” may well define the new tripartite logic binding Iran, Pakistan, and China in resistance to Israeli and western designs.

Tel Aviv’s recent strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure mark a new phase in a decades-long western strategy aimed at dismantling Muslim powers resistant to colonial domination. Iraq, Syria, Libya – all were destabilized under similar pretexts. The 2001 plot, conceived by the US, its European allies, and Israel, has entered its second phase, targeting Iran initially and Pakistan subsequently. In a 2011 interview with Channel 2, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu laid bare the logic: Iran and Pakistan are the primary targets of this containment strategy, he stated blankly. “These radical regimes … pose a significant threat,” he said, stressing the need to prevent them from acquiring nuclear capability.

But recent Israeli provocations have instead triggered multipolar resistance to those plans. Speaking to The Cradle, Abdullah Khan of the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) reveals that Israeli drone operators had recently attempted to sabotage Pakistan’s nuclear facilities during the India–Pakistan crisis:

“Israeli drone operators were stationed in Indian operation rooms during the recent Pakistan–India conflict, trying to target Pakistan’s nuclear facilities. However, prompt action from Pakistan thwarted their efforts, preventing them from causing any damage to the nuclear assets of Pakistan.”

I don’t know if it is hubris or desperation, but at this point, it wouldn’t be a big surprise if Israel attacked China for one reason or another. China, after all, is the primary threat to Clown World.

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Turkey is Next

Simplicius explains why the world is increasingly supportive of Iran and disinclined to permit Israel anything that looks like a victory against Iran:

Israeli figures and media are already salivating at the prospect of what’s next after Iran, with various posts about Qatar, Turkey, and Pakistan all being lined up for disarmament and dismantling. Israel likewise continues begging Trump to ‘finish the job’ as if the plan all along was merely for Israel to “open up” the gates for US firepower.

And of course, that is the case—Israel never had the endurance to go twelve full rounds with Iran, and the hope was always that US would step in, which is why everything now depends on Trump and his tiny cohort of string-pullers.

But again, judging by Araghchi’s defiance, Iran does not seem in a particular hurry to genuflect to the Empire. This can only mean that Iran likes its chances, and may not have suffered as much attrition thus far as claimed.

It’s been interesting to observe that Iran has not availed itself of as much help from Russia as the Russians were willing to offer. This may have been nothing more than the usual susceptibility to Clown World’s temptations and promises, or it might be more indicative of an unwillingness to play the junior partner. It’s also possible that Iran prefers to rely upon China as its primary defense partner, especially in light of the new rail link shipping Iranian oil there.

Regardless, it’s now clear that as long as Team Netanyahu and the other fanatics are in charge of Israel, Israeli success will never lead to peace of any kind. And at this point, it would appear to be preemptive self-defense if Turkey and Pakistan were to enter the war against Israel, given the stated imperialist objectives of the current Israeli regime. And the decades-long accusations about Iran’s expansionary inclinations and general insanity are starting to look more and more like emotional projection by the Israelis.

If President Trump does attack Iran, it will be the biggest mistake of his life and he will lose the greater part of his support even before he loses the war. He will certainly lose mine. Remember, there are no guarantees that the US+Israel can defeat Iran alone. And it is all but certain that the two “greatest allies” cannot defeat a broad alliance of Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Russia, and China.

There are far too many possibilities to make any substantive predictions or attempt to estimate probabilities, but I will say that if the US wages war on Iran and Iran’s prospective allies follow suit, the probabilities would favor an eventual military defeat, and among the possibilities would include a) the complete destruction of Israel and b) the collapse of the USA as a singular political entity.

If I were Trump, I would follow George Bush the Younger’s example, declare Mission Accomplished regardless of the realities of the situation, and allow the Israel-Iran conflict to gradually return to its previous low-simmering hostilities. The fact that no ground invasion of either side is currently possible renders that the optimal outcome under the current circumstances.

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