Tag: war

The Same Failed Strategy

If what we’re hearing in the news reports concerning the US-Israeli strategy is even remotely true, the Tel Aviv regime is going to fail as comprehensively, and quite possibly, as catastrophically, as the Kiev regime. First, as Larry Johnson points out, the IDF is spreading itself too thin by attacking on too many fronts.

Israel is not in a position to fight a multi-front war and it does not have the strategic depth to fight wars of attrition. And that’s exactly what it’s got itself into now. It’s not going to be able to finish off Hezbollah in a week. It couldn’t even finish off Hamas in 12 months. It’s not going to be able to finish off Syria, finish off the Houthis or finish off Iran… That’s what Israel fails to understand. It does not have the ability to sustain itself in these kinds of operations for an extended period of time.

The idea, of course, is to get themselves overwhelmed – or at least present the appearance of being overwhelmed – and thereby force the USA to bail them out. This isn’t an unreasonable concept based on the history of the Arab-Israeli wars, as going back to the Ottoman Empire, an external force has always been stepping in to freeze any conflict that looked like it was heading for a transformative conclusion, whether it was the Ottomans, the British, the Soviets, or the USA. And, of course, invading Iran on behalf of Israel has been the primary objective of the US-based neocons since Michael Ledeen turned “Faster, Please” into the “Carthago delenda est” for them back in 2005.

Thus far, no Western leader has endorsed the call for an Iranian referendum. Now is the time. If the mullahs unexpectedly accept it, they will either receive confirmation of their claims to legitimacy, or be permitted to peacefully leave their posts. If they reject it, then no Western leader will be able to dismiss the calls for democratic revolution in Iran, and a united West can do for Iran what was done for Ukraine.

“A united West can do for Iran what was done for Ukraine.” That certainly did not age well; I’m absolutely certain the Iranian people do not see Ukraine as a positive model for themselves and that they would very much like to avoid the fate of the Ukrainians.

What struck me most, however, is the way that the neocons are relying upon their usual strategy for winning an Iran-Israeli war. What strategy is that? You guessed it: regime change. That’s why the media is relentlessly pushing the rhetoric that the missile attack “failed,” that it was “an embarrassment,” and that the Tehran regime was “humiliated.” The idea is to cause the government to collapse and be replaced by one more willing to surrender, just like Russia has surrendered due to all of the failures, embarrassments, and humiliations endured by Vladimir Putin over the last two years.

This is, of course, retarded. But as far as I can tell, and insofar as the global media has specifically articulated it, that’s the actual objective here. Note the video in which a British Sky News reporter asks an Iranian professor if Iran lost a “war” to Israel – by which he clearly meant an exchange of air and missile strikes, not an actual war on the ground – could the Iranian regime survive? The professor just laughed at him, and rightly so; this is a government that survived 600,000 fatalities and eight years of very bloody air, sea, and land war in defeating the invading Iraqi forces despite the massive assistance provided to Saddam Hussein by the USA, the French, and the Arab states.

It is evident that the US-Israeli plan for victory is to hope that the other side simply doesn’t have the stomach for any direct conflict that lasts more than a few weeks. But while that plan has worked in the past, Persians are no more Arabs than the Afghans or the Russians are.

UPDATE: Apparently this is the Dahiya doctrine, conceived by an IDF Chief of General Staff, Col. Gabi Siboni. Either he read too much Douhet or he didn’t pay enough attention to the complete failure of the Allied air campaign against Germany during WWII to achieve its objectives, let alone force regime change.

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An Incoherent Narrative

Both Israel and the USA are crowing that the Iranian missile attack did absolutely no harm whatsoever to Israel. Ha ha ha, so very funny!

  • Israel’s defence system halts barrage of missiles as Iran’s attack falls flat.
  • In a major embarrassment for Iran, the US said that the missile volley was ‘defeated and ineffective’, with just one reported death – a Palestinian man who was killed by shrapnel in the West Bank.
  • Iran’s Missile Barrage Fails Again
  • Like its previous attack in April of 2024, the onslaught failed to leave a mark on the Jewish state.
  • IDF says no harm… It emphasized that there was no damage to the “competence” of the Israeli Air Force in the attack, and said the IAF’s planes, air defenses, and air traffic control were operating normally.

In some reports, there is whiplash, as the narrative lurches from one extreme to the other:

As Iran unleashed a salvo of missiles, ordered by its supreme leader Ali Khamenei, falling projectiles burned like comets against the night sky after the rockets were intercepted by Israel’s ‘Iron Dome’ defensive system. The sickening attack, which Israel has vowed to exact revenge for…

What is “sickening” about an embarrassingly “ineffective” attack “failed to leave a mark” and harmed almost no one? And how is one salvo of missiles a “major escalation” in response to a) days of relentless bombing of a foreign country and b) a ground invasion of a foreign country?

Meanwhile, Iran claims to have fired Fattah-2 hypersonic missiles, and there is video evidence of at least three hitting their targets. So unless Iran did not actually fire the missiles and the videos are from Ukraine, the IDF is obviously lying; the best US systems have not been able to shoot down any Russian hypersonics in Ukraine. That being said, it’s highly unlikely that any F-35s were destroyed on the ground and the Iranian claim that “a large number of tanks were destroyed” can almost certainly be dismissed in the absence of any satellite imagery or videos showing the wrecks.

However, the one thing that can be believed amidst all the ridiculous lies and hypocrisy is the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps warning about what will happen if Israel doesn’t heed the Iranian message: “If the Zionist regime responds to our attack, our next strikes will be more destructive.”

It’s clear from the incoherency of the Clown World narrative that they’re not sure what to do in light of the usual rhetoric falling so flat. When NATO “allies” are calling for a UN invasion of Israel and most of the world is wondering how Russia, Belarus, and China are being sanctioned while Israel isn’t despite the customary media barrage, it’s clear that no amount of rhetoric will change the new power dynamic.

And what use is Israel’s so-called “Samson Option” in deterring the sovereign nations? Seeing Israel set off suitcase nukes in some European capitals in an attack that couldn’t possibly be blamed on them would be seen as a very fortunate development in Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran.

Regardless, the present small-scale war in the Middle East isn’t going to be settled by air strikes any more than the much larger-scale war in Ukraine will be. And it’s already evident that Hezbollah’s ability to engage on the ground hasn’t been seriously affected by the air war.

Hezbollah has launched more than 100 rockets into Israel, with the group claiming it has targeted troops massing on the border as the Israeli Defence Forces ordered more troops and armoured units to join its ground invasion of Lebanon. Hezbollah said this morning that its forces had confronted Israeli soldiers who were infiltrating the southern village of Adaisseh and forced them to retreat.

This is the fourth Israeli invasion of Lebanon since 1979. What it is supposed to accomplish that the others didn’t is very unclear at this time. As far as I can tell, the Israeli strategy is to continue escalating until the USA declares war on Iran, while hoping that Russia, Turkiye, and China all stand by and do nothing. That might have worked in 1991, or even as late as 2008, but I very much doubt it will do so in 2024. The tail may be able to wag the dog, but it’s a terrible idea when the dog is facing a bear.

And/or a dragon. China is very unhappy with the USA’s continued interference in its internal affairs, as a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry made clear yesterday.

Phoenix TV: The White House announced on its website the decision to provide around US$ 567 million military assistance to China’s Taiwan region. What’s China’s comment?

Lin Jian: The US again provides weapons to China’s Taiwan region, which seriously violates the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiqués, especially the August 17 Communiqué of 1982. The move is in fact emboldening Lai Ching-te and the DPP authorities as they cling to the stance of “Taiwan independence” and make deliberate provocations on the one-China principle. This once again shows that the separatist moves for “Taiwan independence” and connivance and support for such moves from US-led external forces are the biggest threat facing cross-Strait peace and stability and cause the greatest disruption to the real status quo in the Taiwan Strait. Let me be clear, “Taiwan independence” separatism is a dead end and what the US has done to assist the “Taiwan independence” attempt by arming Taiwan will only backfire. We urge the US to earnestly abide by the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiqués, and stop arming Taiwan in any form. No matter how many weapons the US provides to the Taiwan region, it will never weaken our firm will in opposing “Taiwan independence,” and safeguarding China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

UPDATE: Apparently Hezbollah wasn’t just blowing smoke. Ground operations are always more costly than air operations in terms of human life. And while the Israelis claim to have killed 20 Hezbollah “operatives”, that’s an equation that favors the Hezbollah-Iranian alliance even if the number isn’t exaggerated. Martin van Creveld has repeatedly warned that Hezbollah’s light infantry is very good, even if they don’t have much in the way of armor or artillery, and absolutely no air support.

The IDF announced the first fatalities of Israel’s ground operation in Lebanon on Wednesday after eight soldiers were killed during battles against Hezbollah operatives in the south of the country.

It is perhaps worth noting that this means the first day of the invasion has already accounted for 6.6 percent of the 2006 war’s IDF fatalities. That indicates that if the current conflict lasts as long as the previous one, it will cost Israel about twice as much in terms of manpower. I find it hard to imagine that any objective that can be reasonably achieved will be worth that cost. If killing Lebanese is the goal, the air strikes have already accomplished that at a much lower cost to Israel.

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A Minimal Response

Iran appears to be continuing to sit tight, beyond a military response that appears to be small enough to be categorized as more of a diplomatic jab:

Israeli media are reporting that over 100 missiles have been fired into Israel – after Iran vowed on Saturday that Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah would be avenged. It also comes just hours after Israel launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon to carry out raids against Iranian-backed Hezbollah targets.

100 missiles sounds like a lot, and you certainly wouldn’t want them falling in your neighborhood, but to put them into context, Israel dropped considerably more explosives than that on a single apartment complex in Beirut last week.

UPDATE: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said Iran’s rocket attack against Israel was “totally unacceptable” and should be condemned by “the entire world.”

Oh, shut up already. Literally no one anywhere on the planet is fooled by this open hypocrisy. If you want to fight, then fight and accept the consequences. But this childish “I’m not touching you, you’re touching me” retardery just insults human intelligence.

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An Amateur Take

Andrew Anglin demonstrates that while he’s got astute political observers on his writing committee, he doesn’t have a military historian:

There is a group of commentators on the internet who have been telling people for a year that Iran and its allies, Hezbollah in particular, were well capable of somehow crippling Israel. I don’t want to name names, but if I did want to name names, at the top of the list would be names like “Scott Ritter,” “Pepe Escobar,” and “Jackson Hinkle.”

Anyone who understands the Jewish problem enjoyed hearing from these self-proclaimed experts on the “Axis of Resistance” that Israel was finally going to get its comeuppance. This didn’t seem totally out of the question, given that the IDF has faced significant setbacks in Gaza. However, what we’ve seen in the days since the shocking exploding pager attack of September 17th has demonstrated that the Jews are very much in the game and that there is a very real chance they will have success in their long term objectives in the region.

Reality isn’t based on what we want. Reality stands on its own, regardless of what anyone thinks about it. People who are still claiming that everything the “Axis of Resistance” is doing is going according to plan are delusional, denying basic reality. Hezbollah was the single most important Iranian proxy, and Israel has wiped them out like it was nothing.

Things in the Middle East are looking quite grim, and you should not let anyone tell you otherwise.

It’s always intriguing to see how those who know nothing of war, have never read much about it, have never taken part in wargames, and who really aren’t very interested in the subject never hesitate to opine and even prophesize on the subject.

From the military perspective, nothing has substantially changed in the Middle East except the Israeli military occupation of Gaza has gone from passive containment to active repression and expulsion. The reported decapitation of Hezbollah is the equivalent of a major battle won, not the war itself. And while Nasrallah was a gifted political leader and diplomat, he wasn’t a military strategist; the assassination of Iran’s General Soleimani was a much bigger blow in that regard for the so-called Resistance.

Whether Israel is actually engaged in a full-scale invasion of Lebanon or is merely clearing out a buffer zone in order to permit its 60,000 settlers to return to the north doesn’t matter much in the grand scheme of things. Either way, the IDF, and more importantly, its primary weapons supplier, are being attritted much faster than they can replace their manpower or their weapons. Just as NATO can afford to fight to the last Ukrainian, Iran can afford to fight to the last Arab; remember, for all their words about pan-Islamic unity, the Iranians are not Arabs, they are Persian.

We are now hearing that the leadership of Iran was told by the United States that if they did not retaliate, there would be a ceasefire in Gaza. It’s virtually unfathomable that the Iranians would believe this, but they are apparently so devoted to avoiding war that they are willing to believe anything.

Of course they didn’t believe anything that the “Great Satan” told them. But there is a reason why Iranians call the USA “the Great Satan” and Israel “the Little Satan”. They know which enemy genuinely matters for them; without the significant US support upon which it is dependent, Israel would be overrun within five years. The Iranians understand, as so many media commentators do not, that this is a global war, and that blows to the NATO economies are probably more useful to them than any number of missiles raining down on Tel Aviv.

What happens on the tactical level seldom signifies much at the strategic level, much less the geostrategic level. One of the hardest things for any commander, at any level, to do is to wait for the right moment to engage, especially when everyone is on edge and desperate for someone to something, anything. And as any wargamer knows, taking ground and killing zergs is meaningless if you are expending too many resources to last you until the end of the conflict.

Was it worth the reported 85 Mark 4 JDAMS to eliminate the Hezbollah leadership? Quite possibly, given that the IDF were given 14,000 bomb kits over the last two years by the USA. But at that burn rate, they’d run out in less than half a year. It’s one thing to bomb civilians and a trained militia with the benefit of air supremacy. It’s another to attempt to take on a full-fledged military in possession of the sort of modern air defense systems that prevent anyone from flying anywhere near the battlefield in Ukraine.

Nothing is over. In fact, World War III has barely begun.

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Ground War, Take 3

The IDF has officially invaded Lebanon for the third time since 1982.

The Israeli military last night confirmed that it has launched a ground invasion of Lebanon, as fears mount that the escalation could plunge the Middle East into all-out war.

The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said it had begun ‘localised and targeted raids’ against Hezbollah enemies in southern Lebanon.

“These targets are located in villages close to the border and pose an immediate threat to Israeli communities in northern Israel,” the military added.

It added that the operation will continue “according to the situational assessment and in parallel to combat in Gaza and in other arenas”.

It appears the USA finally gave in and submitted to the inevitable. Like the Palestinians in Gaza, Hezbollah has no choice but to engage now. The big question now is if Iran will sit tight and continue to rely upon attrition or if it will directly assist its proxies in Lebanon. Based on the discipline demonstrated so far by the major powers, I would assume that it will follow NATO’s lead by providing resources and material support from afar rather than take the fight to Israel now.

So, I very much doubt all-out war is presently on the cards, which does not mean things might not get to that point sometime next year. The last IDF-Hezbollah war lasted 34 days; presumably this one will go longer, but I doubt it will escalate to a region-wide conflict.

One thing that is worthy of note here is that Iran clearly has not made modern air defense systems available to Hezbollah, which means that unlike the Russians or the Ukrainians, the Israelis can make use of air strikes and air support.

UPDATE: The Lebanese Army has reportedly pulled back 5km from the border to avoid a direct confrontation with the IDF ground forces. So, it’s possible that this is a limited, short-term incursion meant to expand the buffer zone, although that seems like a pointlessly short-term exercise.

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Don’t Get Too Excited

Israel won a grand victory over Hezbollah, if the reports are to be believed:

It was later reported that the Israel Air Force attacked and destroyed 59 stationary medium-range Fajr rocket launchers positioned throughout southern Lebanon. Operation Density allegedly only took 34 minutes to carry out but was the result of six years of intelligence gathering and planning. Between half and two-thirds of Hezbollah medium-range rocket capability was estimated by the IDF to have been wiped out. According to Israeli journalists Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff the operation was “Israel’s most impressive military action” and a “devastating blow for Hezbollah”. In the coming days IAF allegedly also attacked and destroyed a large proportion of Hezbollah’s long range Zelzal-2 missiles.

“All the long-range rockets have been destroyed,” chief of staff Halutz allegedly told the Israeli government, “We’ve won the war.”

Those reports are 18 years old, from the prelude to the failed 2006 ground invasion of Lebanon. Assuming that a war is all but over in the aftermath of an initial series of air strikes is reliably wrong. Eliminating Nasrallah is an achievement that one presumes would be positive for the Israelis, but does anyone seriously believe that if Hezbollah was to eliminate Netanyahu, the war would be over?

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Head of the Snake Strategy

Israel is pursuing an essentially non-military strategy of attacking the enemy’s leadership rather than attempting to defeat them on the battlefield:

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has claimed it eliminated Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of the Hezbollah paramilitary group, in a strike on Beirut, Lebanon. In a statement on Saturday, the IDF confirmed media reports that the top official was killed in the bombing of an underground compound belonging to the militant group in the Dahiyeh suburb of the Lebanese capital. “Hassan Nasrallah will no longer be able to terrorize the world,” it added.

According to the IDF, Nasrallah “was responsible for the murder of many Israeli civilians and soldiers” as well as numerous other “terrorist activities.” “The IDF will continue operating against anyone who promotes and engages in terrorism against the State of Israel and its people,” the statement warned.

Hezbollah has confirmed the death of Nasrallah.

The reason most military strategists don’t recommend utilizing this strategy is that it usually doesn’t work very well outside of circumstances where the king, or khan, exerts sole control over the military and its use. Russia, for example, could have easily eliminated the Kiev regime’s leadership in a similar fashion, but has elected not to do so. China could do the same to the leadership of its estranged island province, if any such leadership were to exist.

I should probably explain that’s a bit of a diplomacy joke. You see, China’s foreign ministry recently informed reporters that the new Japanese head of the LDP could not have visited “the leader of Taiwan” as he was reported to have done in the past because “Taiwan is a province of China and there is no ‘leader of Taiwan.'” This is why I don’t do stand-up; I’d have to schedule an additional half-hour to explain why the jokes would have been funny if the audience had only possessed the information required to appreciate them.

The problem is that one has no guarantee that whatever leadership succeeds the previous leadership is not guaranteed to be less capable, or less inclined to escalate the conflict. Of course, if Israel’s goal is to escalate the conflict, as I suspect it is, then it had nothing to lose by removing Nasrallah from the equation since he was both a) capable and b) maintaining a disciplined strategy of attrition through restraint. A younger, less patient replacement who is more enthusiastic about engaging in direct war might be the best result that Israel could reasonably hope to accomplish.

That is why I think it’s too soon to have any opinion, one way or the other, about the wisdom of pursuing this Head of the Snake strategy in these particular circumstances. Sometimes, it’s impossible to know if a given course is the ideal one until a time well after the fact.

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Russia Changes Nuke Doctrine

President Putin’s decision to make public what is usually done behind closed doors is a clear warning to the USA, the UK, and others waging proxy war on Russia:

In the updated version of the document, aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with the participation or with the support of a nuclear state It is proposed to consider as their joint attack on the Russian Federation.

The conditions for Russia’s transition to the use of nuclear weapons are also clearly recorded. We will consider this possibility already at obtaining reliable information about the massive start of funds aerospace attack and their intersection of our state borders. I mean strategic and tactical aviation aircraft, cruise rockets, drones, hypersonic and other aircraft.

We reserve the right to use nuclear weapons in case of aggression against Russia and Belarus as a member of the Union State. With the Belarusian side, with the President of Belarus, all these issues are agreed. Including if the enemy, using conventional weapons, creates a critical threat to our sovereignty.

It’s evident that the Russians are getting very tired of the childish “I didn’t actually touch you” dance that the proxy warriors are utilizing via Ukraine. The Russians know how many “advisors” and “technicians” and “mercenaries” are fighting against them, and with the USA now committing 10-15 percent of its army to the Middle East, this is as good a time as any to escalate the indirect conflict into a direct one, especially with the Ukrainians getting ever more desperate as their defensive fronts are finally beginning to collapse.

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So Much for “Self Defense”

The Japanese Self Defense Force sent one of its warships through the Taiwan Strait off the coast of China:

A Japanese warship cruised through the Taiwan Strait for the first time to assert its freedom of navigation, local media said Thursday, just a week after a Chinese aircraft carrier sailed between two Japanese islands near Taiwan. Washington and its allies are increasingly crossing the 180-kilometer Taiwan Strait to reinforce its status as an international waterway, angering Beijing.

The Sazanami destroyer made the passage on Wednesday at the same time as navy vessels from Australia and New Zealand, several Japanese media outlets said. The three nations planned to conduct military drills in the South China Sea, the reports said. There was no immediate confirmation from the defense ministry.

Last week, China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier sailed between two Japanese islands near Taiwan for the first time, accompanied by two destroyers. Tokyo said the ships entered its contiguous zone — an area up to 24 nautical miles from the Japanese coast — and called the incident “totally unacceptable”, while China said it had complied with international law. It followed the first confirmed incursion into Japanese airspace by a Chinese surveillance aircraft in August.

On Thursday, the Yomiuri Shimbun daily cited unnamed government sources as saying Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had instructed the Taiwan Strait journey over concern that doing nothing following China’s intrusion into Japanese territory could encourage Beijing to take more assertive actions.

That’s an aggressive action by a naval warship, not a defensive action. Japan appears to be choosing very poorly, although given that it is now under both military and financial occupation, it may not have much choice in the matter.

My guess is that Clown World is trying to warn China not to make its move on unification when the US-Israeli alliance attacks Lebanon, Syria, and possibly Iran.

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I Stand With Castor Fiber

Apparently Russia doesn’t pose a sufficient challenge, as Poland declares war on our beaver friends:

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has called for decisive action against beavers, suggesting the industrious rodents are partly responsible for the severe flooding across the country. The prime minister made the remarks on Saturday during a meeting with cabinet members and local officials at a crisis headquarters managing the flood response in the southwestern city of Glogow. Tusk called for quick action to tackle the disaster, urging municipalities to swiftly report their needs as well as to closely monitor the condition of dams still standing. A sizable part of his speech, however, was dedicated to beavers, with Tusk suggesting the critters were partly to blame for the disaster and that action against their presence at man-made earthworks was needed. “Sometimes, we must choose between our love for animals and the safety of cities, villages, and the integrity of dams,” Tusk stated, invoking the catastrophic 2010 floods and the alleged role beavers played in them. At the time, the Polish government accused the animals of causing great damage to levees.

I don’t have anything against the Poles, but honestly, I’m down with the beavers every single time. And so, I suspect, is President Putin.

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