Tag: war

The Fifth Generation of War

After all the various debates about what would comprise the next generation of warfare, the recent conflicts between Armenia and Azherbaijan, Russia and Ukraine, and Iran and Israel have made it abundantly clear that it is drone warfare that is the Fifth Generation of War:

Last night, Russia also launched one of the largest strikes of the war, when you count total assets used. The missile count was relatively low, but the drones numbered nearly 500 Shaheds and other decoys in total, which is likely a record for single day usage. Counting missiles, it was well over 500+ units launched in one night. The attacks wreaked havoc on various sites, from Ukrainian airports, to energy infrastructure in Poltava, the Drohobich refinery in Lvov, and Kremenchug oil refinery as well.

But most eye-opening was the new statement from top Ukrainian radio-electronics expert Serhiy ‘Flash’ Beskrestnov. He is rarely alarmist, so the urgent tone raised quite a few eyebrows in Ukraine What he’s referring to are the predictions that Russian production capabilities for Shahed drones would soon reach levels allowing Russia to launch upwards of 500-700 of these drones per night, as they did last night.

Not only that, but both Ukrainian and Russian sources indicate that most casualties are inflicted by drones, and two-thirds of those casualties are in the logistical zone outside of the traditional battlefield.

UKRAINE: FPVs represent 49%, artillery only 13.6%, with Russian Kab/Fab bombs only 3.7%. More specifically, they distinguish that 35% of FPV hits are on troops in positions, such as trenches and foxholes, while 65% are hits on roads, i.e. vehicles or troops in transit. For the record, the full list in the left column is: FPV, artillery, infantry, drone-dropped mines, mortars, Kab/Fab, and Lancets.

RUSSIA: The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the combat contact line are only 35%, and 65% are in logistics in the 20-kilometer zone form the contact line. Russian units are knocking out most of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ manpower during rotation with the help of drones.

This extension of the zone of lethality has significantly expanded the effective size of the battlefield. Unlike many previously suggested concepts, this expansion is truly indicative of a fundamental transformation of the way in which war is now waged and therefore worthy of the designation as Fifth Generation War.

The Commandant of the Marine Corps once said: “Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics.” But with the recent expansion of the combat zone, tactics and logistics tactics are now being fused into a single concept that will have to be addressed by new military doctrines and mastered by a new breed of military officers.

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Iran’s Deep Bench

Given the proclivity of both the USA and Israel to wage war through assassination and regime change, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that their enemies are now anticipating decapitation strikes, which was the section of this interview with a former Iranian general that caught my attention.

There’s the issue of the leadership vacuum the Zionist entity sought to create by assassinating leaders of the Revolutionary Guard, followed by subsequent operations. But what we witnessed instead was the strength of our armed forces: leadership positions were filled within just three to four hours, and the command structure was swiftly and efficiently reorganized. What did the people witness afterward? How do you assess the Zionist entity’s belief that creating a leadership vacuum would weaken you?

Mohsen Rezaei: I believe Israel made a grave military miscalculation. They assumed Iran was similar to Hezbollah, even though they themselves have failed to dismantle Hezbollah. They should have learned from that experience. Look at the leadership figures that have emerged within our armed forces. Major General Pakpour, for example, is an exceptionally strong field commander—courageous, with a remarkable operational vision.

Amir Hatami, who joined from the regular army, is a brave and seasoned officer. The same goes for Mr. Mousavi in the aerospace sector. And also for Mr. Mousavi who succeeded the martyred General Bagheri in the General Staff—he is a dedicated man, aligned with the resistance movement.

Though they come from the regular army, there is full coordination between them and the Revolutionary Guards. What the enemy did failed to create any structural void within the armed forces. In fact, it could be said that certain aspects have grown more effective, as recent events have shown. That’s one point.

Secondly, we now have no fewer than ten additional layers of trained commanders and officers—some from the generation that fought in the war, and others who gained valuable field experience in later years, particularly in the fight against ISIS. Many of our forces who fought in Iraq and Syria against ISIS have, through those field experiences, become akin to senior war commanders like Hussein Kharrazi and Ahmad Kazemi—young, capable leaders fully prepared to command the armed forces.

It was a profound error on the part of the Israeli military not to recognize the deep hierarchical structure and the robust bench of ready leadership within our ranks. This internal architecture and the organizational evolution of the armed forces entirely compensated for any potential gaps. In my view, this challenge has already been overcome. And in the near future, our dear people will see that those who have stepped into the shoes of our fallen leaders will ensure that no imbalance or vacuum arises in the management of the armed forces.

The high command—led by His Eminence, the Commander—is fully acquainted with each of these leaders. They have been selected with care and discernment. I am absolutely confident that there will be no void in leadership.

A very common mistake often seen throughout military history is projection, or analyzing the enemy as if it were a mirror image of one’s own forces. Both Israel and the USA have very thin strategic and command benches, which is why they assume that taking out the top layer or two of enemy leadership will lead to complete confusion and disarray.

Which, to be fair, would likely happen in the case of either country suffering the loss of its leadership. But it’s clear that Iran and China are both very well prepared in an institutional sense for rapid leadership transitions that will avoid the confusion and military paralysis that are the primary objective of decapitation strikes. Russia, perhaps not so much, which may account for the monomaniacal focus on President Putin’s well-being, although my suspicion is that his successor will be less patient with the West and more hardline.

Regime change works when you’ve got your candidate all ready and in position to assume command and negotiate a surrender. But it can’t when you don’t have a candidate, and worse, the enemy is already set up to make a series of orderly transitions if necessary.

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He’s Just Helping the Economy

What an odd thing to say! How can Russia be charged with “aggravating Britain’s migrant crisis” when a) mass immigration is good for the economy, b) refugees are always welcome, and c) diversity is strength?

Russia is aggravating Britain’s migrant crisis to overwhelm border defences and sow division in the nation, security sources have claimed. Vladimir Putin’s government is believed to be providing fake documents, transport and even military escorts to smuggling gangs ferrying migrants across the Channel.

The threat overwhelming migration poses to national security is so fierce that this week Nato recognised it by allowing its members to count border protection to spending targets for the first time.

A security source told The Sun: ‘Hostile states and malign actors are using illegal migration to test borders, cause disruption and destabilise countries like Britain.

‘That’s exactly why Nato is now treating border protection as a core part of collective defence — because the lines between traditional military threats and national security are more blurred than ever.’

So far this year, over 18,000 people have arrived in small boats. This is far higher than 2018, when just 299 people crossed the Channel.

The highest year for arrivals was 2022, which saw nearly 46,000 people arrive.

Why, the next thing you know, the Narrative will inform us that foreigners crossing the borders against the will of the native people, taking up residence and occupying their land is an invasion and an act of war…

The indisputable and undeniable fact is that immigration is actually much worse for a country than military invasion. Because sooner or later, foreign soldiers go home. Even after being nuked and militarily occupied 80 years ago, Japan remained Japan.

But after just 60 years of the 1965 Naturalization Act, there are fewer Americans descended from the Revolutionary British than there are US residents descended from the post-1965 foreign invasions. The USA is no longer American, just as if current patterns continue in a linear fashion, in 40 years Great Britain will no longer be British.

Trust me. I’m a direct descendant of American Indians on my mother’s side, but you probably wouldn’t even consider me to be one at all. Well, guess what they’ll deny about your grandchildren, white man… The consequence of a nation believing Clown World’s lies is its eventual extinction.

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Con Inc. Discovers Math

That would be more meaningful if conservatives haven’t spent the last 40 years insisting that the problem isn’t immigration, it’s ILLEGAL immigration. Which, of course, is total nonsense.

The problem is that the USA is no longer American, just as the Mandate of Palestine is no longer Arab and the South African Republic is no longer Dutch. The answer, which I have been pointing out for literal decades, and which is still considered wildly beyond the pale by most liberals and conservatives alike, is to restore the pre-1965 national demographics, either repatriate those who arrived after 1965 and are descended from those who arrived after 1965 or give them their own sovereign part of the former USA, and prosecute every single individual who was responsible for opening the immigration process to the mass foreign invasion for treason.

Such policies are not politically viable now and it’s unlikely that they will be politically viable in the future. So, there will be war. It will be a stupid, terrible, and entirely unnecessary war, and the results will either be a) more or less the same as if the policies were enacted or b) considerably worse. Something resembling the partition of India, which involved 2 million dead and 20 million displaced, is the most likely outcome, only on an even larger scale.

It’s not enough to END both legal and illegal immigration. The effects have to be reversed if America is ever going to be anything resembling America again. Certainly there is room for some valued immigrants or descendants of immigrants, integration is real, possible, and often desirable in a small percentage of sufficiently compatible cases. But unfortunately, politics is a very crude and clumsy tool, and war is an even cruder and clumsier one.

So decline, fall, war, and partition is by far the higher probability outcome. As I have pointed out every now and then, where do you think homogeneous societies come from? They are born of heterogeneous empires and war.

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A Failed Modus Operandi

Simplicius believes the recent conflict suddenly ended by the US-imposed ceasefire reflects a third, and more serious, failure by the Israeli military:

It is now clear that Israel relied on a favored go-to modus operandi in its past three conflicts. Israel has now lost against Hamas, lost against Hezbollah, and lost to Iran. Each time, its face-saving strategy was to “decapitate the leadership”, particularly the well-known personalities like Nasrallah, Haniyeh, etc., and pretend this is somehow a war winning stroke.

In reality, it did nothing each time. Israel still lost the fight on the ground—or in the air, as it were, against Iran. Israel’s putrid army proved incapable of winning real conflicts and had to rely entirely on PR victories and America’s bank to fund various sabotage and extortion schemes against enemy political and military figures.

Think about it this way: in ten or twenty years, what will be remembered about today, the names of a few random “Iranian generals” that Israel “masterfully killed” via cowardly sneak attacks, or the fact that Israeli cities burned for the first time, Israel failed to defang Iran’s nuclear program, and flopped at every other major objective it had, including regime change?

The fact is, Israel suffered an historic humiliation that has destroyed its mystique and reputation as some kind of ‘military juggernaut’ forever. Iran can now learn from its mistakes, rebuild the few launchers and AD systems it lost, and potentially sign new pacts with Russia-China that can expand its defense capabilities.

It is interesting, however, that Iran’s airforce did not seem to participate at all—some experts suggest Iran likely relocated it entirely to the far east of the country and simply kept it out of harm’s way for the duration. Given that Israel’s air-farce was also a no-show over the country, one supposes it wasn’t an altogether bad idea.

In fact, Iran masterfully conserved its limitations and leveraged its greatest advantages during this conflict, thus limiting the damage it suffered. Too bad we’ll never know the full extent of Iran’s missile capabilities given how desperately Israel guarded any ‘sensitive’ damage leaks about the strikes on its territory. But due to how uncharacteristically quickly Israel leaped at the ceasefire offer, logic dictates that the damage Iran meted was significant and unsustainable.

In the aftermath of a narrowly-avoided disaster, we should keep in mind the Israeli triumphalism from less than two weeks ago:

  • The decision to start a war was all Netanyahu’s. And here he is, deciding and responsible: all the credit is his. Trump gave Israel the green light to start a war, provided that it does not present America as a partner and responsible. – Nahum Barnea (Yedioth Ahoronot)
  • The need for the series of assassinations last week first emerged as a thought last September, among senior officials in Unit 8200, the research division in the Intelligence Directorate, the Mossad, and other parts of the system. The trigger was the defeat inflicted by the IDF on Hezbollah, followed by the successful attack on Iran and the destruction of its air defence system in October, followed in December by the collapse of the Assad regime in Damascus and the destruction of its air defence system by the IDF. The sequence of events led many senior Israeli officials to believe that an unprecedented opportunity had arisen, a window of a lifetime, to attack Iran. – Ronan Bergman (Yedioth Ahoronot)
  • Ten days ago, on the eve of Israel’s historic action, I stood here and placed a note that read: ‘Behold, a nation shall rise like a lion’. Now, ten days later, I return to the same place and leave a note that reads: ‘Behold, a nation has risen like a lion – the Nation of Israel lives!’ – Benjamin Netanyahu

And just like that, in less than two weeks, the window of a lifetime is closed. The thinking of the senior Israeli officials appears to have been very much as an Israeli who knows his country’s elite and is well-versed in their thinking once described it to me: tactical cleverness with neither interest in nor aptitude for strategy.

The fundamental problem that Israel, as a country, and AIPAC as a political control device, have is that rhetoric, subversion, and clever tactical maneuvers only work so long as you’re not actually responsible for making things work, feeding everyone, keeping the lights on, and actually winning wars rather than a skirmish here and there. The reason Israel – and the Israel-influenced USA – always rely on regime change instead of military victory as the primary objective is because they are locked into a subversive and short-term mindset.

But sooner or later, when those who are influenced over inevitably comprehend that your grand plans for the future requires not only their suppression, but elimination, they’re not going to respond favorably to all the subversion anymore. Which is why Clown World lost Russia, why it lost China, and why it will lose America as soon as the indoctrinated Boomers lose their political and societal influence. No amount of belief in one’s intrinsic superiority or sociopathic indifference to everyone else, however genuine, are ever going to compensate for a complete inability to run a stand-alone society, let alone a regional empire. But no failing empire, however small, ever fades away gently into the historical night.

Translation: false flags are coming. The assumption is New York City, given the growing hysteria over Zohran Mamdani’s apparent victory in the Democratic primary for the Mayor’s office, and the sinking of the USS Nimitz, but they could take place in anywhere, in any form.

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NATO Takes Aim at China

Fresh from losing a proxy war to Russia, the brilliant strategists at NATO are now preparing for war with China over Taiwan. Rhetorically, anyhow:

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte issued a warning highlighting that the “massive” military buildup in China raises the risk of a potential invasion of Taiwan, potentially dragging Russia into this and impacting European security.

“We have this close relationship with Japan and the Republic of Korea, Australia and New Zealand, exactly for the reason that these countries are very, very worried about the massive military buildup in China that at the moment is taking place,” Mark Rutte said ahead of the Nato summit in The Hague, the Independent reported.

Rutte speculated that if China attempt to attack or invade Taiwan, then there is a possibility that Beijing would draw in Vladimir Putin, who would create trouble in Europe to divert the attention and resources of NATO. ‘We are all very worried, of course, about the situation in Taiwan. And we also know there is a risk that if the Chinese will try anything with Taiwan, that no doubt he will call his junior partner, Mr Putin, and make sure … he will keep us busy here, if that would happen’, he added.

He also noted in his pre-summit address that the rapid expansion of military capabilities of China was evident from the global rise of its defence firms. “We know that out of the 10 biggest defence companies, only a couple of years ago, you would not find any Chinese companies. At this moment, you will find three to five Chinese defence companies in the top 10 of the biggest defence companies in the world. This shows you that this massive buildup is taking place and is having a huge impact, also when it comes to the defence industrial production of China,” he also said.

Neither NATO nor the USA can fight China. We’ve already seen that the collective might of NATO can’t do anything more than slow Russia down, and the combined alliance of Israel and the USA was able to settle for an inconclusive draw with Iran.

China has more people, a larger military, and far more formidable industrial capacity than Russia and Iran combined. If China wanted to take Canada, there isn’t anything anyone could do about it, let alone Taiwan.

So expect reunification with the mainland within the next decade, and most likely a reunification as peaceful and devoid of global drama as the resolution of the Hong Kong situation was. And the first sign of it coming will likely be either South Korea or Japan “unexpectedly” changing sides and signing some kind of alliance with China.

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More Kabuki

Iran launched at least 10 missiles at two U.S. military bases Qatar and Iraq on Monday in response to President Donald Trump bombing its nuclear labs over the weekend. Tehran targeted Al Udeid Air Base in Doha – where more than 10,000 American troops and 100 aircraft, strategic bombers and tankers are stationed – in a strike as President Trump convened his national security team at the White House. US officials had evacuated at least 40 aircraft from the base in recent days and moved an unknown number of troops, and said after Monday’s retaliation that ‘at this time, there are no reports of US casualties.’

Kabuki confirmed. Apocalypse-minded Christian Zionists hardest hit.

Iran coordinated the attacks on the American air base in Qatar with Qatari officials and gave advanced notice that attacks were coming to minimize casualties, according to three Iranian officials familiar with the plans. The officials said Iran symbolically needed to strike back at the U.S. but at the same time carry it out in a way that allowed all sides an exit ramp; they described it as a similar strategy to 2020 when Iran gave Iraq heads up before firing ballistic missiles an American base in Iraq following the assassination of its top general.

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US Begs China for Help

Are we seriously supposed to believe that no one in the Trump administration took the probability of Iran restricting global oil supplies into account?

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on China to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important shipping routes. His comments came after Iran’s state-run Press TV reported that parliament had approved a plan to close the Strait but added that the final decision lies with the Supreme National Security Council.

Any disruption to the supply of oil would have profound consequences for the economy. China in particular is the world’s largest buyer of Iranian oil and has a close relationship with Tehran.

Oil prices rose following the US attack on Iranian nuclear sites, with the price of the benchmark Brent crude reaching its highest level in five months.

“I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them [Iran] about that, because they heavily depend on the Straits of Hormuz for their oil,” Rubio had said in an interview with Fox News on Sunday. “If they [close the Straits]… it will be economic suicide for them. And we retain options to deal with that, but other countries should be looking at that as well. It would hurt other countries’ economies a lot worse than ours.”

I would be too sure about that, given the way China obviously foresaw the need to avoid utilizing the more traditional sea routes.

On May 25, 2025, the first freight train from Xi’an, China, arrived at the Aprin dry port, Iran, marking the official launch of a direct rail link between the two countries. This new logistical artery significantly reduces transit times (from 30–40 days by sea to roughly 15 days by land) yielding a direct impact on transportation costs. This railway is part of a much larger and broader East-West Corridor that is designed to link China, physically, with a trade route directly to Africa, and to Europe, without having to use the more traditional sea trade routes.

An oil tanker carries between 500k and 2 million barrels of oil. 18.5 million barrels transit the Straits of Hormuz every day, which means about 18 tankers per day. China utilizes 16 million barrels per day, although obviously not all of it comes through the Straits.

A rail tanker car carries 700 barrels and Canada ships 150,000 barrels by rail every day from the Albert oil sands. Taking the faster rail delivery time into account, it would require 9,150 rail cars to replace those 16 daily tankers, and a total of 274,500 rail cars to meet the daily oil requirements without a hitch. That sounds like a lot, until you observe that the China Railway Rolling Stock Corp. is the world’s leading manufacturer of rolling stock, with the capacity to manufacture over 500 high-speed train sets, 12,000 subway cars and 50,000 freight cars per year.

I think it is safe to assume that China has already built the 300k or so freight cars required to replace the 1,120 sea tankers that historically supplied it, given that they didn’t just start building the Aprin-Xi’an link in 2024 and the two countries signed an economic cooperation pact in 2021.

However, China doesn’t transport all its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. It only obtains about one-third of it that way, 5.1 million barrels per day. So it only needs a total of 87,500 freight cars to substitute for that particular source. Which, one notes, the Chinese could have completed before the launch of the railroad if they started manufacturing them as recently as August 2023.

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MIGA is Backpedaling Fast

Vice-President Vance: We did not attack the nation of Iran. We did not attack any civilian targets. We didn’t even attack military targets outside of the three nuclear weapons facilities.

US Vice President J.D. Vance does not support his country’s involvement in the conflict between Israel and Iran, Reuters has reported, citing two informed sources.

Trump, Vance, and all the newly-converted neoclowns aren’t MAGA. They’re MIGA and now the whole world knows it. Trump has made the mistake of thinking that just because he jumped in front of the parade, the parade will go wherever he wants to go.

They’re all confirmed to be the owned property of Clown World. No matter how they spin and produce their own magic word spells, it’s not going to fool anyone who genuinely wants to make America great again, because foreign wars on behalf of AIPAC and Israel are exactly what has turned America into a pale and weak shadow of what made it great in the first half of the 20th century.

The stealth jet squadron slipped into enemy skies, moving into attack formation at ‘high altitude and high speed’, with lighter, more mobile F-22 fighter jets sweeping in front of the B-2s to shield them from any surface-to-air or air-to-air fire. There was none. Not a single shot was fired at any of the aircraft or warships involved in Midnight Hammer from the beginning of the operation to its end.

And that wasn’t suspicious at all? Nothing has been able to fly safely over Ukraine or Russia for the last three years, but USAF jets are just so gosh darn sneaky that Iran didn’t even lift a finger to try to stop them…

Sounds like another green flag to me.

Simplicius has reached a similar conclusion:

Iran knew the exact epicenter the B-2s would have to converge on and yet was unable to even attempt to engage them? Could the scriptwriters have written a more schlockily improbable series of events? They could have at least added a few ‘glory moments’ of F-35s and F-22s shooting down a couple Iranian fighter craft for effect.

Recall that the US was having severe problems even operating just outside of Yemeni airspace, with not only F-35s nearly shot down, but two F-18s lost to panicked defensive maneuvers, as well as one other shot down by US air defense, and a fourth “nearly shot down” in the same operation.

So, Houthi air defenses can engage F-35s, but an entire sky swarming with B-2s, F-35s, F-22s, and other planes were not detected at all by Iran, whose IADS is likely dozens of times stronger than Yemen’s? Keep in mind the Pentagon spokesman also said the strike package included fourth generation craft that flew all the way to central Iran, which presumably refers to F-16s and F-15s—but for some bizarre reason Iran “never fired a shot”.

Sound suspicious to anyone else?

And after all these strikes, countless claims of Israeli “total aerial control”, there is still not a single video of a foreign craft over the skies of Iran. The B-2s were even seen flying back over New Jersey on their ‘heroe’s return’, yet no one in a nation of 90 million saw or heard anything on this most ‘mysterious’ of nights.

Something’s rotten in the state of HasbarAmerica.

So, yes, I’m convinced Iran decided to take US’ offer and allowed safe passage of the strike package to rain a few insignificant ‘token’ strikes on Fordow with the understanding that this was the US’ price for exiting the conflict.

Now, there are rumors that Israel may use the given ‘off-ramp’ as pretense to likewise conclude a new deal and end hostilities, given that Israel has exhausted itself and is now losing a war of attrition against Iran.

Indeed, there has been what appears to be a certain amount of excessive bluster and over-the-top playacting of late.

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