Month: May 2024

WWIII and the Élefsiton

Andrei Martyanov corrects some comments by Jeffrey Sachs:

  1. We ARE NOT on the path to WW III, we are already in WW III and the West already lost it. NATO has neither troops nor resources to introduce anything in 404. Russia’s tactical nuclear drills was a message to European chihuahuas, primarily UK, after showing UK ambassador in Moscow the list of British targets Russia will strike OUTSIDE 404 if London continues with terrorism. Russia is not afraid of Article 5.
  2. US is NOT a republic anymore–it is a corrupt uniparty oligarchy sliding towards totalitarianism. Its foreign policy and media are controlled by the state of Israel and Zionist lobby inside the US, which is based on a broad foundation of Christian Zionist population in the US.
  3. US higher education as related to humanities is over. It has been over for some time. Eventually, all remnants of a free thought and facts-based academic study will be purged.

Martyanov is entirely correct. WW3 technically began back in 2014, but will probably be recognized as starting in 2022, just as WWII began in 1931 with the Japanese invasion of Manchuria, not the 1939 German invasion of Poland. It’s not over yet, obviously, but the eventual outcome is no more in doubt than it was in December 1941, and for the same reason: industrial capacity.

The USA hasn’t been a republic since 1865. The most recent change is the foreign seizure of control over the imperial US government, which can be best illustrated by AIPAC’s most recent bragging about how 48 out of 48 Democratic candidates who were funded and endorsed by the organization won their primary races.

And it’s not as if the Republicans are any better, as in addition to criminalizing insufficient personal enthusiasm as well as refraining from economic engagement with Israel, two Republican Senators are now attempting to prevent anyone criticizing Israel from access to air travel.

Sens. Roger Marshall (R-KS) and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) have introduced a bill that would designate student protesters “Terrorists” and add them to the “No Fly List” for protesting Israel.

It may strike you as counterintuitive, but this point, the US government actions are so obviously intended to generate white-hot hate carefully directed against a very small percentage of the population that it is clear there are only three rational explanations for them:

  1. AIPAC and other political organizations are so stupid that they don’t realize the probable outcome of their attempt to impose a religious totalitarian state on millions of well-armed Americans. Very highly unlikely. It’s just barely possible that they’re legitimately that blinded by arrogance and past success, and certainly there are some individuals who are that clueless and historically ignorant, but I very much doubt that any of the leaders believe they can openly retain control of an increasingly hostile population numbering in the hundred millions for very long. In fact, we know from the 2004 Wye conference that they don’t believe that.
  2. An esoteric mass sacrifice is being prepared in yet another attempt to summon the long-awaited messiah and immanentize the Élefsiton. Just as military generals don’t hesitate to sacrifice hundreds of thousands of their countrymen’s lives in war, the esoteric elite are perfectly willing to sacrifice the ritualistic millions of their own they believe are required to bring about their global rule. Keep in mind there are only two places that Holocaust 2.0 can happen, Israel and the USA.
  3. Because life in the USA among Americans was too easy and risked eventual destruction through integration, it was deemed necessary to increase US anti-semitism to the point that US-resident Jews become sufficiently afraid to make aliyah. Given the growing intensity of the attempt to complete the ethnic cleansing of Palestine and its direct connection to these new anti-semitism laws, as well as open talk of sending the Palestinians to the USA and Canada, this appears to be the most likely motivation. I tend to doubt it is a coincidence that there are a similar number of Jews in the USA and Palestinians in Israel, 6.3 million vs 5.3 million.

Of course, it’s entirely possible for all three motivations to be in effect among the rival elite factions, since the secular faction doesn’t believe in (2) except as a useful justification for (3), while the esoteric faction would support (2) as being entirely in line with its long-term objectives.

Regardless, WWIII is very far from over, and the map of political geography that it creates is probably going to look rather different than today’s map.

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A HISTORY OF THE FREEDOM OF THOUGHT

Castalia Library is very pleased to announce that the May-June subscription book is A HISTORY OF THE FREEDOM OF THOUGHT by John Bagnell Bury, featuring an introduction by Vox Day.

John Bagnell Bury (16 October 1861 – 1 June 1927) was an Irish historian, classical scholar, Medieval Roman historian and philologist. He was Erasmus Smith’s Professor of Modern History at Trinity College Dublin (1893–1902), before being Regius Professor of Modern History at the University of Cambridge from 1902 until his death. He is most known for editing The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire by Edward Gibbon and being the lead editor of The Cambridge Ancient History and The Cambridge Medieval History series. 

For more information about J.B. Bury and the forthcoming Castalia Library edition, please visit the Castalia Library substack.

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Sweden Has a Gun Problem

Perhaps they should try banning guns? I’m told gun control is the answer when there is a problem of excess shootings:

Sweden has suffered an extraordinary spate of violence in recent months, particularly in Uppsala and its neighbour to the south, capital Stockholm. At its worst in September and October, barely a day went by without a shooting, bombing or hand grenade attack — sometimes several. The Nordic country has gone from having one of the lowest levels of fatal shootings in Europe to one of the highest in just a decade.

I wonder what could have changed in the last ten years. Gun sales must be up considerably in Sweden!

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Bad Literature as Predictive Model

We know that movies and television shows have been used as a revelation of the method by the wicked in order to avoid occult karma for their actions by openly confessing them in a plausibly deniable manner that the public will not believe. But six decades after it was written, this section from the dreary, Gamma-infested slog that is A CONFEDERACY OF DUNCES, written by an author who was posthumously awarded the Pulitzer Prize for Fiction 11 years after his suicide, tends to strike the modern reader as ominously predictive of the current state of affairs in the increasingly degenerate nations ruled by the evil inverts of Clown World.

Dear Reader,

Nature has sometimes made a fool; but a coxcomb is always of man’s own making. —Addison

As I was wearing the soles of my desert boots down to a mere sliver of crepe rubber on the old flagstone banquettes of the French Quarter in my fevered attempt to wrest a living from an unthinking and uncaring society, I was hailed by a cherished old acquaintance (deviate). After a few minutes of conversation in which I established most easily my moral superiority over this degenerate, I found myself pondering once more the crises of our times. My mentality, uncontrollable and wanton as always, whispered to me a scheme so magnificent and daring that I shrank from the very thought of what I was hearing.

“Stop!” I cried imploringly to my god-like mind. “This is madness.” But still I listened to the counsel of my brain. It was offering me the opportunity to Save the World Through Degeneracy.

There on the worn stones of the Quarter I enlisted the aid of this wilted flower of a human in gathering his associates in foppery together behind a banner of brotherhood. Our first step will be to elect one of their number to some very high office—the presidency, if Fortuna spins us kindly. .Then they will infiltrate the military. As soldiers, they will all be so continually busy in fraternizing with one another, tailoring their uniforms to fit like sausage skins, inventing new and varied battle dress, giving cocktail parties, etc., that they will never have time for battle. The one whom we finally make Chief of Staff will want only to attend to his fashionable wardrobe, a wardrobe which, alternately, will permit him to be either Chief of Staff or debutante, as the desire strikes him. In seeing the success of their unified fellows here, perverts around the world will also band together to capture the military in their respective countries. In those reactionary countries in which the deviates seem to be having some trouble in gaining control, we will send aid to them as rebels to help them in toppling their governments.

When we have at last overthrown all existing governments, the world will enjoy not war but global orgies conducted with the utmost protocol and the most truly international spirit, for these people do transcend simple national differences. Their minds are on one goal; they are truly united; they think as one. None of the pederasts in power, of course, will be practical enough to know about such devices as bombs; these nuclear weapons would lie rotting in their vaults somewhere. From time to time the Chief of Staff, the President, and so on, dressed in sequins and feathers, will entertain the leaders, i.e., the perverts, of all the other countries at balls and parties. Quarrels of any sort could easily be straightened out in the men’s room of the redecorated United Nations. Ballets and Broadway musicals and entertainments of that sort will flourish everywhere and will probably make the common folk happier than did the grim, hostile, fascistic pronouncements of their former leaders.

Almost everyone else has had an opportunity to run the world. I cannot see why these people should not be given their chance. They have certainly been the underdog long enough. Their movement into power will be, in a sense, only a part of the global movement toward opportunity, justice, and equality for all. (For example, can you name one good, practicing transvestite in the Senate? No! These people have been without representation long enough. Their plight is a national, a global disgrace.)

Degeneracy, rather than signaling the downfall of a society, as it once did, will now signal peace for a troubled world. We must have new solutions to new problems. I shall act as a sort of mentor and guide for the movement, my not inconsiderable knowledge of world history, economics, religion, and political strategy acting as a reservoir, as it were, from which these people can draw rules of operational procedure.

Boethius himself played a somewhat similar role in degenerate Rome. As Chesterton has said of Boethius, “Thus he truly served as a guide, philosopher, and friend to many Christians; precisely because, while his own times were corrupt, his own culture was complete.”

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Wednesday Arktoons

THE SIDEWINDERS Episode 54: A Figure in Black

GIVE MY REGARDS TO BLACK JACK Episode 56: A Social Evil

CHATEAU GRIEF Episode 354: What’s the Ammo

REBEL DEAD REVENGE Episode 113: Even in Death

A MIND PROGRAMMED Episode 50: An Almost Preternatural Calm

FRANKENSTEIN – THE RETURN Episode 35: World of Monsters

SHOTGUN SAMURAI Episode 27: Shotgun Samurai

WOKELYCORRECT Episode 3: Black and White

STONETOSS Episode 291: It Can Weight

An Appeal to Innumeracy

I have to admit, while I was confident that all the true believers in the Theory of Evolution by Natural Selection were going to do their level best to avoid every doing any of the simple math required by MITTENS (Mathematical Impossibility of The Theory of Evolution by Natural Selection), I didn’t realize they were going to go so far as to literally deny the applicability of mathematics to what can now only be described as “the magic of evolution”.

Whitelightning777: Humans and chimps only differ genetically by 1% or so. That’s hardly revolutionary. When zoos have to do surgery on primates, the vets often consult human surgeons for expert advice. Go to a zoo. Look at the hands of chimps. A common ancestor is obvious. There is no way that’s a coincidence!! Just the fact that chimps can learn sign language ought to show a recent divergence. The fact that they can use human metallic tools shows that the brain also works in a similar fashion, just that chimps still aren’t quite as smart as humans, about what a 3 to 5 year old child can do. Look at the difference between wild carp and goldfish. Living things can be pressured to change structure rapidly when circumstances create the pressure to do so.

Spacebunny: You have no idea what you’re talking about. You can’t do math, nor do you understand the significance of the numbers given. No, they could not have done any such thing “a few million years ago”. It is literally mathematically impossible.

Whitelightning777: Both a 1% to a 10% difference or maybe even more could be accomplished over a period of 2 to 4 million years. The main issues are what factors exactly drove this natural selection and how much pressure was exerted upon humans by nature, animal predators and other human species attacking each other. By the way, neanderthals weren’t necessarily as nice as we all seem to think.

James Dixon: The math says no.

VD: 1.23 percent of the human genome means 37,500,000 unique base pairs specific to humans. Now, tell us how long it would take to mutate and fixate that degree of genetic disparity…

Whitelightning777: First of all, the majority of your DNA is essentially junk. The exact percentage is disputed but can be as high as 90%. Small genetic changes can quickly lead to huge differences. Over a few million years you don’t have to change very much from one generation to the next. The ABILITY to evolve, genetic flexibility itself is something that nature selects for. Creatures that can’t evolve are usually extinct. The multiple numbers of human races attest to our genetic flexibility. The modern races are only a few hundred thousand years old & have meaningful differences in health and IQ, although the extent is disputed. If our species lost it’s ability to evolve, it wouldn’t be able to split off into races either. Chimps themselves also have different races and species. Bonobos behave very differently from other chimps, even though they can all interbreed.

Dirk Gently: So, in other words, you don’t even comprehend what Vox is saying

Whitelightning777: Vox is setting a “math trap”. This is a device used by creationists. What Vox fails to realize is that 90% of that DNA is junk and that there is no upper limit to how fast evolution and generic change which can occur so long as the offspring survives and is able to reproduce. What Vox fails to realize is that a creature that can only evolve slowly will go extinct, falling behind and losing out to those with more generic flexibility.

VD: A “math trap” is a simply a basic calculation used by people who are numerate. It’s not witchcraft, no matter how opaque it may be to you. There absolutely is an upper limit to how fast mutated genes can fixate. Evolution by natural selection, biased mutation, genetic drift, and gene flow is utterly impossible by the very fastest rates of fixation ever observed in the wild or in laboratories. I will put the problem in two very simple analogies so you might be able to understand the problem.

If someone tells you the score of a professional baseball game is 562,987 to 3, you know the score is incorrect. If someone tells you he walked from New York City to Los Angeles in 34 minutes, you know he is lying. And when someone tells you that the 37.5 million human-specific base-pairs in the human genome were mutated and fixated by natural selection in less than 10 million years, you know they are absolutely wrong. Your junior high logic will never bridge that gap. It cannot. Because it is based on incorrect and impossible premises.

Whitelightning777: MATH DOESN’T APPLY to evolution.

VD: Of all the absurdly retarded statements I’ve ever seen on every form of social media dating back to the bulletin boards of the 1990s, this is, without any doubt whatsoever, the most retarded. Congratulations. Even the kid who thought bacon came from rocks was simply ignorant. But this assertion actually required enough brainpower to contemplate the concept, think it through, and then reject the idea that mathematics necessarily applies to a process that is conceived to take place over a quantifiable period of time.

Whitelightning777: Let’s keep this simple. The only math that matters with evolution is that the birth rate of a particular lifeform exceeds the death rate or barring that is at an equilibrium. Creatures for whom the death rate exceeds their birth rate are dysgenic. Creationist trick boxes are neither required nor desired.

VD: You’re literally retarded.

You don’t have to be retarded to… well, yes, at this point, it is abundantly clear that you do have to be literally retarded to believe in evolution by natural selection. As you can see, the challenge posed to the Neo-Darwinian synthesis by MITTENS is so overwhelmingly devastating that the evolutionists have to abandon not only science, but math itself, in order to cling to their outmoded, outdated, and disproven explanation for the observable diversity of life.

DISCUSS ON SG

How Civilization Ends

Tucker Goodrich is not optimistic, based on his experience with working on engines and machine shops.

Due to the dwindling supply of quality machine shops and very poor quality aftermarket parts as well as a lack of people interested in learning the engine building and machine shop trades, I regret to inform our many followers and current as well as past customers that we will no longer be taking on any new engine build orders unless it is for a car we are restoring. Since Covid, we have had to do rework on multiple engine builds due to poorly manufactured parts that failed during break in or machine work that was below our standards due to all the old farts like me dying off with no younger workers interested in taking their place. For example, rod bearings are now made too thin resulting in 390 and 401 crank grinds needing to be ground .0085, .0185 or .0285 under standard rod journal size yet all but one machine shop in the entire Phoenix area refused to do anything other than the standard .010, .020 or .030 grinds. Even worse, when the one shop that will grind the cranks the way we tell them we need them loses their crank grinder to retirement in another year or two, they do not plan to replace him. Machine work that used to have a turnaround of 2-3 weeks now takes a minimum of 2-4 months due to an acute lack of people interested in learning machine work and doing manual physical labor. In fact, one engine block was at a machine shop for a year and when we got it back hey did such a poor sleeve job in one cylinder that it was not even useable so it is now a 250 lb paper weight…

What used to take a couple of weeks to get back from a machine shop can easily now take 2-4 months or more resulting in our overall engine backlog now being 15-18 months. The bottom line is that custom engine building is on its way to becoming extinct and it won’t be too many more years before all of us old farts that currently do this work either retire and/or die off resulting in engine building within the collector car hobby becoming nearly impossible to find. And when you do find someone, don’t be surprised if they are backed out 2+ years or more and that they only want to do Chevy builds and know zero about our beloved AMC engines. “The times they are a changin’.”

I can attest to this problem of civilizational and technological decline. We’re installing a new machine in the bindery today. It’s a machine from 1961, and we bought it because it should work much better for our purposes than the new machine we bought in 2022.

If you’re looking for work, or to launch a business, you should probably look very hard at the opportunities in the machine shop area. Because it’s not just the car collectors who need metal parts machined.

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AI vs Biologists

In an attempt to make the subject easier for people to understand, a programmer ran MITTENS through ChatGPT, and despite the usual issues and very generous assumptions of tiny populations and high fixation probabilities, the results tend to demonstrate why biologists will have to avoid MITTENS as long as they possibly can in order to continue clinging to their outdated and disproven assumptions about the origin of the species. Somewhat amusingly, the AI did not provide a final answer in terms of the range of times required for fixation given its estimates and assumptions, but contented itself with saying that a population-wide fixation could perhaps happen eventually, in theory, given a sufficiently beneficial mutation.

This AI-generated summary usefully points the way toward filling in the various blanks that would permit a full fixation simulator to provide valid answers when prompted with the relevant variables that can be derived from existing genetic studies, such as observed selection coefficients and drift factors. Interestingly enough, even the analogy of the simplified explanation demonstrates the implausibility of the fixations required for every human to possess the same human-specific genes sans a mechanism far more akin to IGM than TE(p)NSBMGDaGF.

As it turns out, the AI is effectively “smarter” than the biologists, because unlike biologists like JFG and Richard Dawkins, the AI “comprehends” that the mathematical challenges posed are both relevant and real.

Simplified Explanation for Non-Mathematicians

Think of mutation and fixation in genetics akin to introducing a new smartphone model and observing how quickly it becomes the only model used by everyone. Mutation rate is like the frequency of new model launches, while fixation rate is like observing how quickly each new model becomes the dominant one used by the public. Selective events are like market conditions that favor the rapid adoption of certain models over others (e.g., a significant technological advancement).

Understanding Fixation Rate with an Example

The fixation rate in a population genetics context refers to the frequency at which a particular mutation becomes present in every individual of a population, effectively replacing all other versions of that gene. Let’s break down the concept of fixation rate using a simplified example.

Example: Introducing a Beneficial Mutation in a Small Population

Imagine a small population of 1000 butterflies. A mutation occurs in one butterfly that makes its wings brighter, potentially giving it a better chance of avoiding predators.

Step 1: Mutation Occurs

  • Initial mutation: One butterfly develops a mutation for brighter wings.
  • Population size (N): 1000 butterflies.
  • Number of mutants at the start (m): 1.

Step 2: Determine Fixation Probability

For a beneficial mutation, the fixation probability can be higher than that of a neutral mutation. If we assume this mutation offers a slight survival advantage, let’s denote the selection coefficient by 𝑠s, where 𝑠s is small, say 0.01 (1%).

The fixation probability (𝑃P) for beneficial mutations can be approximated using the formula:

𝑃(𝑓𝑖𝑥𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛)≈2𝑠1−𝑒−4𝑁𝑠P(fixation)≈1−e−4Ns2s​

Plugging in our numbers:

  • 𝑁=1000 (population size),
  • 𝑠=0.01 (selection advantage).

𝑃(𝑓𝑖𝑥𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛)≈2×0.011−𝑒−4×1000×0.01P(fixation)≈1−e−4×1000×0.012×0.01​ 𝑃(𝑓𝑖𝑥𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛)≈0.021−𝑒−40P(fixation)≈1−e−400.02​

Since 𝑒−40e−40 is a very small number close to zero, the formula simplifies to:

Step 3: Calculate the Fixation Rate

The fixation rate involves how quickly this mutation spreads through the entire population until it becomes the only variant present. This rate not only depends on the fixation probability but also on factors like the generation time and population dynamics. If the mutation indeed confers a survival advantage, and given that the probability of fixation is about 2%, it implies that in favorable conditions, it might eventually spread to the entire population.

Step 4: Observing the Outcome

  • Generational time: Assuming each butterfly generation spans one year.
  • Over many generations, we observe whether the mutation spreads and reaches fixation (where all 1000 butterflies have the mutation) or is lost due to drift or other factors.

Key Takeaways

  • Fixation Probability: Even with a beneficial mutation, the probability of fixation isn’t guaranteed but is significantly higher than for neutral mutations. In our example, there’s a 2% chance the beneficial mutation will fixate in the population.
  • Impact of Population Size: Larger populations may see a slower spread of mutations due to their sheer size and genetic diversity.
  • Role of Selection Coefficient: A higher 𝑠s value (greater advantage conferred by the mutation) increases the probability of fixation.

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