The Coming False Flag

We haven’t seen the false flag we were all expecting at the start of the Russian special military operation, but Gonzalo Lira, a Chilean resident in Ukraine, appears to believe that one is imminent and that it will likely involve chemical weapons.

The Americans are planning a false flag operation in Ukraine. the word is that they plan to use
chemical weapons in Ukraine, probably Kharkov where I’m located right now and the word is that they want to use chemical weapons because NATO and the United States have said that chemical weapons are a red line and if anybody uses chemical weapons they will invade.

Now the reason that they’re saying this is because the mainstream media in the United States is claiming that the Ukrainians are winning this war against Russia and that the Russians are just outmatched and out of desperation, the Russians are going to use chemical weapons and that’s why we have to stop them, we have to go in there and be the cavalry. You know, the white hats riding in on our white horses and show those evil Ruskies that chemical weapons are a no-no.

Well, this is a big lie. Right now the Russians are winning this war and winning it decisively. The fact is that the Ukrainian army’s command-and-control system is completely broken. The Ukrainian forces do not have an overall defensive strategy, for all intents and purposes, each unit is on its own. The Russians have successfully surrounded Kiev and Kharkov, the major cities. They’ve also surrounded and are in the process of pacifying Mariupol, so in the end, the Russians are winning. And most important of all, the Russians seem to have completely surrounded, and are currently, in all likelihood, annihilating the 60,000-strong army of the Ukraines which is currently in eastern Ukraine.

Not many people are talking about it but you should pay attention to that, that’s really important, because those 60,000 men represent the cream of the crop of the Ukrainian armed forces and they are
surrounded. Not only are they surrounded, there is no possibility of them being refueled or resupplied so it’s only a matter of time to either overwhelm them, overrun them, or annihilate them. It’s as simple as that….

So if you’re American, you should understand that the media is lying to you. The russians are winning, clearly winning, and I don’t need anybody to report and and tell me that the Russians are winning, I can tell all on my own. You know how? Because every day, I hear the shelling of the Russians and it’s getting closer every day. I’m in the center of Kharkov and I’m telling you every day the Russians are getting closer, so I know that they’re winning….

Those thugs of the Zelensky regime, they want NATO intervention. They’ve been calling for it from day one and if they figure that doing a chemical attack false flag will get NATO in, they will not hesitate, not for a second. So understand what’s going on. I am here to tell you what is going on. The Zelensky regime and different factions in the United States mean to start a false flag so that they can get involved in this war.

A lot of predictions are being made. Most of them will prove to be incorrect. But this one is at least consistent with recent NATO troop movements in Poland and the large military exercise, Operation Cold Response, that began yesterday in Norway.

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10 to 14 Days

And then it will be all over because the Russian military is exhausted. That’s the current globalist media narrative, anyway.

‘Ukraine has Russia on the run’

Russian forces may only be able to sustain full fighting capacity for another ‘ten to 14’ days, senior UK defence sources indicated last night. By that time they may struggle to make any significant progress – while finding it difficult to hold ground, according to the latest intelligence.

Despite another day in which bombs rained down on Ukrainian cities including Kyiv and Kharkiv, resistance to the onslaught has seen the invasion fall behind schedule, allies of Vladimir Putin admitted for the first time on Monday. And American officials said the ground advance, now in its third week, had largely stalled.

A senior UK source said last night: ‘Ukraine has Russia on the run. It is running out of manpower and running out of energy. As long as we keep pressing they’ve got ten to 14 days before reaching their culminating point. That’s when the strength of Ukraine’s resistance should become greater than Russia’s attacking force.’

Time will tell. I am extremely dubious, so I’m mostly posting this here for the record. We’ll revisit this professional military analysis on March 24 to see how it looks then. I’m anticipating it will look rather similar to the old “14 days to flatten the curve” approach.

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You’re the Insurgent Now

Former service members volunteering to fight the Russians in Ukraine are discovering that war isn’t quite as fun when the other side has air supremacy for a change. This is from a series of Reddit posts purporting to be from a volunteer military veteran in Ukraine:

Yes, I was here today and blown off the top bunk of my bunk bed in the barracks by the first missile. This is where all the foreign legion troops are, the 35 killed were all Ukrainian mostly due to a direct hit on their barracks next to mine. The base is destroyed, the weapons depot destroyed, possibly the end of the legion. About 60 people with their heads on straight including myself left after the attack. They’re sending untrained guys to the front with little ammo and shit AKs and they’re getting killed. The guys who stayed got bombed again in the afternoon and casualties aren’t clear. If you still want to to join them I’m not sure what the process will be since literally all the infrastructure supporting the training/assignments of volunteers is all destroyed. The guys who are there now will all be going to Kyiv and many will die, the legion is totally outgunned and has a few crazy Ukrainian leaders. After the attack one officer wanted to march everyone to Kyiv and fight. Absolute insanity. Stay home.

I didn’t go to Ukraine for the clout. I asked the right questions, deleted my posts, actually bought a plane ticket and brought my ass over. I said in another comment that yes it was 35 Ukrainians killed because their barracks got directly hit. The 180 bullshit is real Russian propaganda. If you think I’m a Russian agent you’re just in denial that the situation is absolutely fucked. Go ahead and join the legion, by all means, but be very aware of how bad Kyiv is going to get and be aware that Russians have warplanes and you will have next to nothing. Be very acceptant of the possibility of death. Those of us who left, including SF operators from multiple countries, are simply risk mitigating. No one wants to die in an unfair fight, and after getting absolutely fucking pummeled by massive cruise missiles today – yeah I kind of want people to think twice before turning their life upside down to go and volunteer.

Like a lot of dudes there have experience and really wanted to shape the battlefield and impact their advance, but ultimately they’re manning frontline positions that are going to get hammered with artillery and airstrikes, buried under rubble and your family never gets your body. That’s when a lot of guys say yeah this isn’t our fight, not like this.

Such are the perils of believing the globalist propaganda factory. These Western volunteers thought they were going to be going on patrols and hunting Russians in the same way they hunted jihadis in Afghanistan and Iraq. A dangerous sport, to be sure, but an activity that is more sport than war nonetheless. But, as they quickly discovered not long after their arrival, they’re not up against an ill-equipped, irregular 4GW insurgency, they’re up against one of the three most formidable professional militaries in the world.

Russia deliberately blew up foreign fighters and arms shipments at a Ukrainian base close to the Polish border on Sunday and has vowed to carry out more strikes in a direct warning to the West. Igor Konashenkov, a spokesman for Russia’s ministry of defence, said the base at Yavoriv – 12 miles from NATO territory – was struck by ‘long-range, high-precision’ weapons because it was hosting ‘foreign mercenaries and a large shipment of foreign weapons’. He added: ‘The destruction of foreign mercenaries who arrived on the territory of Ukraine will continue.’

Putin deliberately targeted Ukraine’s ‘foreign legion’ with strike 12 miles from NATO border, Daily Mail, 14 March 2022

The effectiveness of the Russians can be seen in the way they have effectively destroyed the entire Ukrainian foreign legion with a single missile strike without it ever even having the chance to enter the battle space.

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Foreign Fighters in Ukraine

It’s increasingly clear that the Ukrainians were planning an invasion of the Donbass that was prevented by the Russian special military operation in light of the fact that foreign military contractors were already present, armed, and organized into units in Ukraine weeks before the operation began.

ONE of the first British fighters in Ukraine told yesterday of his ferocious battle with Russian troops at the Battle of Antonov.

Jason, who served two tours of Iraq, told The Sun: “The Ukrainians fought like lions and I’m proud I was alongside them. What Putin is doing is terrorism. He’s bombing kids and families for nothing. He’s a war criminal.”

He flew to Ukraine at the start of last month. He recalled: “When I told my mates they were like, ‘What, are you mad?’. I’m a qualified combat medic and have done seven years working as a private military contractor. I wanted to go and do some good.”

He set up home in Kyiv and linked up with foreign fighters ahead of the invasion. Jason was sleeping when a pal woke him on the morning Putin’s troops and tanks invaded.

He told The Sun: “The world just blew up. You could hear rockets coming over the buildings. In the distance there were bright lights flashing all over the city from the Russian bombardment. It was completely surreal.”

Jason dashed out of his city centre flat in full body armour and carrying an AK-47. His unit quickly joined a detachment of Ukrainian troops heading to defend Hostomel Airport.

The fact that Jason subsequently ran away and is already back in the UK giving interviews to the British media should suffice to indicate how well the war is going for Ukraine. The March 13 report from the Russian Ministry of Defense tends to generally accord with the foreign fighter’s decision to go home.

During the special operation, the Russian armed forces disabled 3,687 military infrastructure facilities of Ukraine, Defense Ministry Spokesman Igor Konashenkov said on Sunday. According to him, 99 aircraft, 128 unmanned aerial vehicles, 1,194 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 121 multiple rocket launchers, 443 field artillery pieces and mortars, 991 units of special military vehicles were destroyed.

Once the dust has settled, it will be interesting to compare the Russian reports with historical US reports and determine which were more accurate at the time of the report. All armies – indeed all soldiers – tend to overreport enemy capabilities and casualties.

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Zelensky’s Challenge

The president of the neocon puppet regime sounds like a leader who cares deeply about “his” people, doesn’t he:

Volodymyr Zelensky has slammed the West for its inaction, saying today he ‘doesn’t see any bravery from NATO’ as he pleaded for more involvement from allies in peace negotiations and offered to pay for more anti-missile systems. In response, the US made lukewarm promises of taking ‘diplomatic steps’ to help the Ukrainian government.

Zelensky, who claimed 1,300 Ukrainian troops have been killed so far and 500 Russians surrendered yesterday, also said Putin’s forces can only take Kyiv if they ‘raze the city to the ground’, with Kremlin troops inching closer to the capital and conflict raging nearby today, endangering attempted evacuations.

Ironically, Russian President Vladimir Putin observably cares more about the Ukrainian people than their so-called “President” does.

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The Proxy War

Game theoretician Alex Macris shares his perspective on the special military operation in the Ukraine.

In order to maintain hegemony, the United States needs Russia to become a Western satellite before the petrodollar system collapses.

As long as Russia is a pro-Chinese authoritarian state, China can:
1) reliably get food, oil, and gas without needing to worry what the US thinks
2) focus all of its military might on population control (internal) and power projection (vs Taiwan, southeast Asia, and South China Sea) without worrying about its border with Russia
3) develop the Belt & Road initiative into Europe without worrying about Eurasian continental interference

These three factors, in turn, spell doom for the American hegemony. The first factor means that it can detach from the petrodollar, and therefore detach from SWIFT; the second factor means that it can be a one-front power rather than have to be a two-front power like the US, doubling its budget-per-theater; and the third factor means that it can neutralize America’s blue ocean sea power and thalassocracy.

It’s thus no surprise that the US has systematically and methodically worked towards turning the former USSR into a Western client. It has rolled EU and NATO membership eastward. When it has encountered resistance, it has staged color revolutions (twice, in Ukraine’s case). It applies sanctions, propaganda, and soft power. Since 2015 the CIA has been training anti-Russian insurgents.

Since I know this, we can safely assume that Russia knows this, too. Putin knows, for a fact, that his regime is the prime target of the West. Not because they are afraid of Russia, but because they are afraid of China. Controlling Russia is the method to keep China in check.

Moreover, China knows this too. China has Russia’s back. If China is going to unseat America as hegemon, it needs Russian oil, gas, resources, food, and access through its territory. Russia didn’t just get China’s permission to attack Ukraine — it collaborated with it on timing and intelligence.

During the Cold War, the US would not go to war with the Russians directly, but it took every opportunity to go to war with Russia via proxies. What we have now is another such proxy war. The proper lens to understand the Russia-Ukraine War is that it is a proxy war between China and the US.

What makes this a uniquely dangerous situation is that this time the proxy has nukes.

I see it as less a proxy war and more of a nationalist alliance against The Empire That Never Ended. But I completely agree that the conflict is much bigger than Russia vs Ukraine, and I suspect one reason for NATO’s sudden reticence to throw its weight around militarily is that it not only fears the possible consequences of facing Russia’s A-Team and losing Eastern Europe, but that any such direct action would cause China to open a second front against the imperial globalists.

There are, in fact, certain signs that China is preparing for action. While it’s possible that its revived anti-Covid campaign is nothing more than a lingering fear of the virus, in light of the fact that the Chinese authorities have seen Covid disappear in the West, I suspect the campaign is being used as cover for the various preparations now being undertaken for the second stage of what will not be known in the future as the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The relative equanimity with which Russia has endured the all-out economic assault of the globalist institutions, and its obvious anticipation of the unrestricted nature of the assault, tends to suggest that it knows it is holding a very substantial ace in the hole. And that ace would appear to be a second front in Asia.

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Underestimating the Enemy

A Russian military veteran provides his professional take on the Ukrainian operation:

We underestimated the enemy’s power of informational, ideological, psychological resistance, they were waiting for us. Literally on the very first day, with one click of American bloody fingers, they deprived us of the support of the civilian population and those AFU units ready to become neutral. Millions of dollars, thousands of IT guys, global media corporations cut Ukraine off from any objective information, it stank in our country.

And our main losses were in the first three days. Now they will be rapidly reduced. Peacekeeping and humanitarian operations, like the Crimean one— are no longer carried out by the Russian army. The fighters received other orders, got involved, got angry, regrouped, any hopes for active support from the civilian population and those parts of the AFU who had changed their mind were dispelled.

There were few flowers and bread loaves to be seen, the people have been crushed by propaganda and lies, intimidated into insanity by the Nazis. Another important point was missed in the calculations — almost 600 thousand Ukrainians have passed through the ATO zone in the Donbas since 2014, today they have replenished the territorial defense everywhere, many have something to fear. Especially in the wake of fakes about executions without trial by the ATO.

Can you imagine what, during a year of service there, the Nazis stuffed into their heads – gave them the opportunity to shoot at the settlements of “quilted jackets and colorados” with impunity, to mock the civilian population there. So, the calculation for the help of locals and APU was inaccurate, the cancer in Ukrainian society is simply monstrous. But… we will cure it.

If we explain our tactics of the first days… this is a creatively reworked “reconnaissance by combat” of the Great Patriotic War. Only with a deep and rapid penetration into the Nazi-occupied territory. We provoked the activity of the enemy with tactical groups, deliberately drawing out parts of the APU and the National Guard from their locations. With a small number withstanding the terrible counterattacks of tanks and armored vehicles, of a superior in number motorized infantry.

Sometimes it was impossible to suppress the “Grads”, artillery and mortars hidden in residential neighborhoods that were nailing you. Urban areas could not be cleaned methodically in combat formations, causing supporting fire, attack helicopters, sappers, flamethrowers, tanks to carry machine-gun emplacements in houses and social infrastructure facilities.

This is a war unfamiliar to us veterans. Especially when the sky is under your full control, airfields are packed with attack aircraft and bombers, operational and tactical missile systems are in service, there is a lot of heavy artillery. Now it has become clear even to civilians: the correct name for what is happening truly is “a special military operation for denazification.” And the demilitarization of Nezalezhnaya was completed by the end of the third day.

The APU, as a single, manageable and effective structure, has ceased to exist. Today, there are dozens of groups of different numbers isolated from each other, hiding in cities and towns. No centralized supply, no air support, no approach of reinforcements. They are not able to act within the framework of any plans of the Ukrainian General Staff. Just crowds of armed men with orders to stand to the death.

The main groups “North” and “East” were beheaded and deprived of command — these are 22 brigades, which had been entrusted with the honorable duty to drown Donbass in blood at the beginning of March. We beat them to it by a week or two, starting our own special operation. Now 150 thousand people (together with national soldiers) are marinated in “cauldrons”, cut off from each other.

This is a considerably more realistic analysis than the one provided by internationally recognized geopolitical forecaster and strategist on international affairs George Friedman which I reviewed on the Darkstream last night. The key takeaways:

  • We underestimated the enemy’s power. The intensity and the effect of the psychological operations should disturb everyone on both sides. But it shouldn’t actually surprise us in the wake of the Covid psyops. And the Russians clearly understand that the enemy is not Ukrainian.
  • This is a creatively reworked “reconnaissance by combat” of the Great Patriotic War. Hence the advances on multiple fronts seemingly aimed at nowhere combined with the sudden halts that the globalist media interprets as “getting bogged down”. The focus is finding the enemy units and enveloping them, then gradually degrading their ability to fight before forcing mass surrenders.
  • This is a war unfamiliar to us veterans. The Russians bent over backwards to avoid collateral civilian damage. This effort was not rewarded due to the successful propagandization of the Ukrainian people. While Russia is still not targeting civilians, it is no longer accepting the higher risks to its soldiers required to avoid collateral damage.
  • We beat them to it by a week or two, starting our own special operation. This is why Putin ordered the attack when he did, and why the timing came as a surprise even to some of the Russian generals. It’s also how the Russians managed to surround 22 brigades – previously estimated by outsiders to be 10-12 brigades – in the Donbass Pocket.
  • The second stage of the operation. Recognizably, the Syrian scenario. Russia will not go into the cities to eliminate the militant opposition. It will surround the cities, starve them, and wait for their surrender or suppression by the moderate majority. This was the tactic they used successfully in the Second Chechen War.
  • Losses are not just tolerable (from a military statistical point of view) — insignificant. The relentless propaganda about massive Russian losses are pure projection, especially in light of the price that Russia paid during the Great Patriotic War aka WWII. Nor does it even make any sense in light of the fact that Russia has successfully taken an estimated 200,000 km2 in less than two weeks.
  • The final turning point. He predicts the war rapidly comes to an end after Kharkov and Odessa submit. At least, this stage of the larger, unrestricted war.
  • Will the encircled Banderites begin to commit atrocities in their impotent anger? Well, Ukrainians should also carry this cross on their own. From the Russian perspective, the civilians chose their side, both in their acceptance of the illegitimate Maidan regime in 2014 and their rejection of their liberators in 2022. They chose poorly. So the Russians aren’t going to lose any sleep over atrocities committed against people who consider them the enemy by the forces the people did not resist.

It’s all a bit cold-blooded and ruthless, but then, one shouldn’t expect the Russian perspective to have much in common with the irrational, highly-emotional, media-programmed perspective that pervades the WereWest. And it comes with enough predictions that we should soon be able to see if it is a useful model or not. It certainly comports with the visual map of the operation’s progress.

UKRAINE INVASION DAY 13

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Karl Says It’s Over

The Russo-Ukraine War, not Covid:

News: Zelinskyy no longer insists on joining NATO.

The actual news: Russia won.

Now the terms of surrender are under discussion. I’ll make a prediction: They’ll be exactly the same terms Russia offered before, with another few additions, and Ukraine will take them.

(1) No accession to NATO, period, with sufficient protections to prevent it from being revoked or evaded. This likely means a bar on military resupply and rebuilding in Ukraine and perhaps changes to the Ukraine legal structure to forbid it. The West’s word means nothing as we promised this 20+ years ago (no eastward expansion) and we lied, repeatedly.

(2) The two eastern provinces are confirmed as independent demilitarized states and Crimea remains Russian; this is formally adopted by the Ukraine government. Demilitarization is to be enforced, and the Nazi (literal, and yes, there are two units in Ukraine that are best-described as same) will be disbanded. Russia provides security guarantees to the two eastern provinces with the explicit understanding that any further shelling or similar act by Ukraine against them (which has intermittently been going on for eight years) will be met with immediate Russian military retaliation. In other words if Ukraine ****s with those provinces or Crimea the deal is off and the war is back on.

(3) Permanent revocation of permission to place or operate any bioweapon or dual-use facility in the nation. Nuland confirmed in sworn testimony yesterday we violated the UN Charter and in fact what Russia said they found there was not propaganda it was true. Said facilities shall be razed under Russian supervision and no attempt will be made to rebuild them irrespective of who sponsors or operates same.

(4) A permanent ban on enrichment or other nuclear activity beyond that required for civilian power production, with a specific ban on the presence of any nuclear fuel beyond 5% fissile in the nation and an absolute ban on any reactor operation that short-cycles fuel. To be enforced under IAEA surveillance.

(5) Each nation bears its own costs. Nobody owes anyone anything for what’s happened to this point. And whatever Russia now has in its possession in terms of documentation and proof (e.g. the Biden 10% for the big guy, the kickbacks to Zelenskyy, the biolab data they already released, etc.) has no protection. You can bet it will be used when it is most-appropriate in their view too.

That’s it.

We’ll see whether I’m right.

I’m not quite as optimistic, simply because I see the Ukrainian operation as the first stage of a much larger contest between the nationalist and globalist forces. I hope that he is right, because the trends favor the nationalist forces strengthening over time, but as always, we’ll have to simply wait and see. And I really don’t see how Ukraine standing down and acceding to Russia’s original demands will bring an end to the unrestricted warfare that the globalists have begun.

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US Admits Ukraine Biolabs

Just two days ago, US bioweaponry labs in Ukraine were dismissed by the globalist media’s “fact-checkers” as conspiracy theories and Russian propaganda. And now their existence has been publicly admitted by the US government.

Rubio: I only have a minute left let me ask you, does Ukraine have chemical or biological weapons?

Nuland: Ukraine has biological research facilities which, in fact, we are now quite concerned Russian forces may be seeking to gain control of. So we are working with the Ukrainians on how they can prevent any of those research materials from falling into the hands of Russian forces should they approach

Rubio: I’m sure you’re aware that the Russian propaganda groups are already putting out there all kinds of information about how they’ve uncovered a plot by the Ukrainians to release biological weapons in the country, and with NATO’s coordination. If there’s a biological or chemical weapon incident or attack inside of Ukraine is there any doubt in your mind that 100 percent it would be the Russians that would be behind it?

Nuland: There is no doubt in my mind, Senator, and it is classic Russian technique to blame on the other guy what they’re planning to do themselves.

So, the US-based neocons have not only admitted to putting research laboratories for biological weapons in their puppet state of Ukraine, they’re trying to preemptively false flag any use of bioweapons there. China, however, is clearly well-aware of this distributed bioweapons operation in the wake of the Wuhan coronavirus release and is already calling them out about it.

The US has 336 labs in 30 countries under its control, including 26 in Ukraine alone. It should give a full account of its biological military activities at home and abroad and subject itself to multilateral verification.

Once more, we see that the “Russian propaganda” is well-founded in fact. Once more we see that “conspiracy theory” can be reasonably described as “spoiler alerts”. And once more, we see that the US government is in the hands of some of the most evil people on the planet.

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Poland Washes Its Hands

Poland does its best Pontius Pilate imitation and offers to hand over its MiG-29s to the USA:

Poland announced on Tuesday it was ready to hand all its MiG-29 fighter jets to the US, apparently as part of an arrangement to deliver the warplanes to Ukraine’s armed forces where they are desperately needed to fight off invading Russian forces.

The idea has been floating around for more than a week after Ukraine pleaded for more aircraft but the plan has been dogged by questions about how to deliver the planes to Ukrainian territory without dragging NATO into the conflict.

Tuesday’s announcement will be seen as a Polish effort to force the US and NATO to go further in backing the Ukrainian fight.

‘The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the president and the government, are ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MIG-29 jets to the Ramstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the government of the United States of America,’ said the Polish foreign ministry.

Poland is believed to have 28 MiG-29s – a Soviet-era fighter flown by the Ukrainian air force – although not all are airworthy.

If the situation weren’t so serious, it would be amusing to watch all the word games and verbal legerdemain in which countries like Germany, Poland, and Switzerland are foolishly engaging. They keep acting as if their transparent anti-Russian actions won’t be held against them as long as there is some sort of legal cloak that permits them to claim that they’re not doing what they are observably doing.

Russia is quite clearly a “spirit of the law” player, so all of these legalistic maneuverings are totally pointless. Especially since an attack by US aircraft from a US airbase in Germany on Russian forces would be a declaration of war by NATO for which all NATO members could be held accountable.

This is really just a polite way of saying no. If Poland had been serious about getting the MiGs to the Ukrainians, they would have offered them to the UK, because the current Johnson regime is dumb enough to try to play stupid games like this.

UPDATE: Neither the USA nor NATO appear to be eager to give Russia an obvious justification for attacking NATO forces in Eastern Europe. This tends to suggest that neither Finland nor Sweden will be permitted to join NATO if they are foolish enough to apply.

The Pentagon has poured cold water on Poland’s offer to hand all its MiG-29 fighter jets to the US, apparently as part of an arrangement to deliver the warplanes to Ukraine’s armed forces where they are desperately needed to fight off invading Russian forces.

The idea has been floating around for more than a week after Ukraine pleaded for more aircraft but the plan has been dogged by questions about how to deliver the planes to Ukrainian territory without dragging NATO into the conflict.

But Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby said on Tuesday night the deal was unworkable and would cause serious concerns for the ‘entire NATO alliance’.

Russia has made clear that it will consider any use by Ukraine of neighboring country’s territory as a ‘casus belli,’ or justification for attack. That means Ukrainian pilots taking off from Poland or Germany in the MiGs would cross a Russian red line. Asking Polish pilots to fly them in would also be viewed by Russia as NATO entering the conflict.

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