Tag: war

The Fall of NATO

NATO member Turkey has definitively chosen Russia over its so-called allies:

Russia and Turkey are switching to payments for Russian gas supplies in rubles, on which the two presidents agreed at negotiations in Sochi on Friday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said.

“The presidents have agreed that we are beginning partial gas supplies and payments for them in rubles,” Novak told journalists.

Russia currently ships about 26 billion cubic meters of gas to Turkey annually.

“We are gradually switching to payments in national currencies, and part of the shipments will be paid for in Russian rubles now. This is a new stage indeed, which opens up new opportunities, including for the development of our monetary and financial relations,” Novak said.

Putin and Erdogan also discussed cooperation in the financial and banking sector, he said.

“Our commercial companies and our citizens should have an opportunity to pay [in national currencies] during their tourist trips and in the process of trade turnover,” Novak said.

Therefore, “the presidents discussed the financial-banking block, on which major agreements have been reached,” he said.

The NATO Nazis are very well advised to be concerned:

Western officials are “increasingly alarmed” that Turkey, a NATO ally and prospective EU member, is deepening its cooperation with Russia, the Financial Times has reported. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently returned from Sochi vowing to boost trade after talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Six unnamed Western officials told the newspaper that they were “concerned” about the plans of Russia and Turkey to cooperate on trade and energy. One EU official said that Brussels was monitoring relations between Ankara and Moscow “more and more closely,” given how Turkey seems to be “increasingly” becoming a platform for trade with Russia.

Turkey has rejected its formal allies because its leaders are more concerned about its national interests than the fancy pants and lollipops promised them by the Prometheans; Erdogan also knows that the USA sponsored the failed coup that was aimed at unseating him two years ago and is giving refuge to the man who was intended as his replacement. So, the Turks have clearly decided to place their bets on the side of the BRICSIA economic alliance despite being members of NATO.

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An Absence of Sanctions

Israel is pounding the hell out of the Palestinians in Gaza again.

Israel has bombarded Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) positions in the Gaza Strip for a third day today with 31 Palestinians killed, while militants fired hundreds of rockets back amid escalating violence.

Six children are among the dead since the conflict began Friday, while 275 people have been wounded, said health authorities in the enclave where several buildings were reduced to rubble.

Israel launched its first bombardment on Friday as part of a surprise operation named ‘Breaking Dawn’ that the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said was a ‘pre-emptive strike’ designed to thwart a planned PIJ rocket attack.

The IDF early this morning continued their intense aerial and artillery bombardment of the Iran-backed group, which has fired hundreds of rockets in return since Friday.

Now, I understand that this bombardment is probably in response to sound intelligence concerning an attack on the Israeli people. Whether the preemptive strike is proportional or not, one cannot possibly say, it almost certainly wasn’t launched without some provocation. However, it should be kept in mind that the Russian special military operation was also in response to a series of ongoing attacks on the Russian people of the Donbass for more than eight years.

It would be interesting and informative to learn how many munitions were expended by the Ukrainian military and paramilitaries over the last eight years in comparison to how many were expended by the Palestianian Islamic Jihad and the Israeli Defense Forces over that same period.

Because if there is no reason to sanction Israel over its bombardments and invasions of Gaza, there is no clearly no reason to sanction Russia over its bombardments and invasions of Ukraine.

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A Quiet Response

In lieu of shooting down Nancy Pelosi’s plane, China opts for a considerably more brutal economic response:

For the past two days, there seemed to be no other news in the world than the visit of the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives to Taiwan. Nancy Pelosi’s plane overshadowed both the fighting in Ukraine and the global financial and energy crisis. As a result, a representative of the American establishment did visit the island, and China confined itself to a series of extremely harsh political statements. This fact triggered an avalanche of alarmist statements from all kinds of experts trumpeting China’s strategic defeat. The emphasis was made exclusively on the military aspect, while completely overlooking the fact that we are talking about an Asian country, that is, a state with a different mentality, power system, political scenarios and approaches from the European one.

While everyone was watching the maneuvers and exercises of the PLA Navy, Beijing delivered an imperceptible, but perfectly calibrated and crushing blow. Since August 3, it has been strictly forbidden to send sand to Taiwan. For Taiwan, this is far worse than a direct military invasion and an amphibious landing.

The disruption of imported supply chains of construction sand and quartz sand could potentially send not only the Taiwanese economy, but the entire global electronics industry, from game consoles to the “brains” of modern missiles and fighter jets, into a deep knockout.

Watching the maneuvers of air units and warship formations off the coast of Taiwan is extremely fascinating. Anyone who has read the works of Sun Tzu understands that this is only a beautiful backdrop and that if you sit on your sandy shore long enough, one day an entire island will come to you.

Anyone who has read Unrestricted Warfare will not be surprised to see China eschew a direct and obvious response that would accomplish nothing but military escalation in favor of a more subtle asymmetric response that will cause severe strategic harm to its adversaries.

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No Worries, It’s Just a Drill

The Chinese provide details on their recent series of joint military exercises:

This is the first time the PLA will launch live long-range artillery across the Taiwan Straits, in a move that will demonstrate the PLA’s firm will and strong capability to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and thwart secessionist attempts by “Taiwan independence” and external interfering forces, Zhang Junshe, a senior research fellow at the Naval Research Academy of the PLA, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

“If the conventional missiles of the PLA were to be launched from the mainland toward the west of Taiwan and hit targets to its east, this means that the missiles would fly over the island, which is unprecedented,” Chinese mainland military expert Zhang Xuefeng told the Global Times.

He also pointed out that five of the drill zones are set to the east of the so-called median line of the Taiwan Straits, and this means that the existence of the line is denied through the concrete action of the PLA.

Some drill zones are also for the first time set to include areas within 12 nautical miles to the island of Taiwan, but since Taiwan is a part of China, Taiwan’s so-called territorial sea is also China’s territorial sea, Zhang Xuefeng said.

Also, the PLA drills surrounding Taiwan are intended to show that it is capable of blockading the entire island and of resolving the Taiwan question through non-peaceful ways, if the situation becomes irretrievable, observers said.

So, the Chinese military has announced they’re going to be sailing vessels into previously respected territorial waters and firing missiles directly over the island. Which presumably means that the Taiwanese will have to be circumspect about ships and missiles approaching the island.

Hmmmm….

I don’t think China has any need to invade Taiwan, which is why I concluded that the eventual reunification with the mainland will be a mostly peaceful one akin to the recent Hong Kong reunification. But the stage has certainly been set for an invasion in the aftermath of the Pelosi visit.

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Were the Chinese Bluffing?

A lot of people seem to think so, particularly Karl Denninger, in light of the failure of the Chinese to follow through on the threatened military response to Nancy Pelosi landing in Taiwan. And while that’s obviously the likely explanation, it should be kept in mind that “exercises” and “training operations” have often been historically utilized as cover for incipient invasions:

Beijing has begun conducting military drills off Taiwan after promising to launch a series of “targeted military operations” in response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the self-governing island, Chinese media reported.

“The Eastern Zone of the PLA Combat Command is consistently conducting a series of joint military operations around the island of Taiwan,” CCTV reported hours after Pelosi arrived on the island.

Pelosi touched down in Taipei late on Tuesday despite repeated warnings from Beijing against attempting to visit territory that it regards as an integral part of China.

“The Chinese People’s Liberation Army is on high alert and will launch a series of targeted military operations to counter this, resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and resolutely thwart external interference and ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist attempts,” defense ministry spokesman Wu Qian said, without providing any further detail.

In a separate statement, China’s Eastern Theater Command announced joint military drills off Taiwan, live-firing in the Taiwan Strait and missile test-launches in the sea east of Taiwan. The exercises kicked off early on Wednesday, footage circulated by Chinese CCTV shows.

I would not assume that the crisis has necessarily passed, as the exercises are scheduled to continue through August 6th. And remember, the Chinese seldom operate on a Western time frame. To simply back down and kowtow to the US military in front of the entire world just one day after celebrating the 95th birthday of the People’s Liberation Army strikes me as a rather improbable response.

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The Sacrificial Lamb Approaches

The only logical explanation for Nancy Pelosi’s much-rumored “secret” visit to Taiwan is for her to serve as a sacrificial casus belli to start the war that the neocons want with China at the earliest opportunity.

Taiwan has relocated French-supplied Mirage 2000 fighter jets and other military hardware, according to local media, ahead of a possible visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Eight additional aircraft were moved to the Chihhang Air Base, adding to the two Mirage 2000 fighters already stationed there, the Taiwan-based China Times reported on Tuesday.

The base is located in the southeastern part of the island, from where Pelosi’s plane is expected to approach, the outlet said. The facility was put on high alert, it added.

Meanwhile Taiwan’s Navy deployed two additional anti-submarine helicopters to patrol the waters near the island, the report said.

Meanwhile, the USS Ronald Reagan is said to be approaching Chinese waters as Chinese social media is reporting that both the Shandong and Fujian aircraft carriers have left their bases. China’s position remains very clear, and was repeated by the spokesman for the Foreign Ministry yesterday.

Reuters: US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is scheduled to visit Southeast Asia and East Asia this week and Taiwan is not mentioned in her itinerary. What’s China’s comment?

Zhao Lijian: Recently, the Chinese side has repeatedly made clear to the US side our serious concern over Speaker Pelosi’s potential visit to Taiwan and our firm opposition to the visit. We have been stressing that such a visit would lead to serious consequences. As President Xi Jinping stressed to US President Joe Biden in their phone call, the position of the Chinese government and people on the Taiwan question is consistent, and resolutely safeguarding China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity is the firm will of the more than 1.4 billion Chinese people. The public opinion cannot be defied. Those who play with fire will perish by it. We believe that the US side is fully aware of China’s strong and clear message. 

We are closely following the itinerary of Speaker Pelosi. A visit to Taiwan by her would constitute a gross interference in China’s internal affairs, seriously undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, wantonly trample on the one-China principle, greatly threaten peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, severely undermine China-US relations and lead to a very serious situation and grave consequences. 

We want to once again make it clear to the US side that the Chinese side is fully prepared for any eventuality and that the People’s Liberation Army of China will never sit idly by, and we will make resolute response and take strong countermeasures to uphold China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, What the US should do is to abide by the one-China principle and the stipulations of the three Sino-US joint communiqués, fulfill President Biden’s commitment of not supporting “Taiwan independence” and not arrange for a visit by Speaker Pelosi to Taiwan. 

It will be interesting to see if China decides to take the bait and initiate or if it finds another way of saving face. Either way, we may witness the long-expected opening of the second front soon.

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A Warning Within the Warning

It’s never a good sign when the Defense Ministry assumes responsibility for communications concerning certain matters in the place of the Foreign Ministry.

Action is the most powerful language, said the Chinese Defense Ministry on Thursday as its spokesperson stressed the sensitivity of the Taiwan question again after China issued six warnings against US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s potential visit to Taiwan island over the past few days.

The frequency of Chinese warnings and the remarks different departments use fully demonstrate China’s determination to take any necessary military measures to counter US provocations and safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, analysts said.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will not tolerate any “Taiwan independence” moves or interference from external forces, and will resolutely stop such attempts, Wu Qian, spokesperson for the Defense Ministry, said at Thursday’s press briefing.

The root cause of a turbulent Taiwan Straits is the collusion between “Taiwan independence” forces and external interfering forces, Wu said, urging relevant parties to learn to adapt to the new reality (PLA operations near the Straits), to reflect on their own deeds and “most importantly, to pull back from the brink.”

Though Wu was responding to a question about PLA operations on the Taiwan Straits, analysts interpreted Wu’s words as another stern warning against the US government and some US politicians who are pushing Pelosi’s possible visit to Taiwan island.

The US should not underestimate the crisis and possible disastrous results it will bring to the Taiwan Straits if Pelosi ultimately makes the trip, experts said. On edge of the cliff for bilateral relations, if the US does not pull back but keeps challenging the guardrail, the price will be beyond US capabilities to pay.

It’s an interesting historical lesson in the use of the phrase yanzhen yidai, which literally means “streamlining army formation to wait for the enemy” and has very seldom been used in the diplomatic context. It more accurately translates into modern American English as “fuck around and find out”, such as when Zhou Enlai warned the USA not to cross the 38th Parallel prior to the Chinese intervention in the Korean War.

In other words, the Chinese are no more bluffing over Taiwan than the Russians were bluffing over Ukraine.

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General Bozo

It is suggested that the great buffoon of Great Britain, Boris Johnson, will become the next NATO Secretary-General.

Boris Johnson tipped to become next secretary general of Nato.

Ukrainian and Tory MPs support idea of PM being a possible candidate, though sceptics suggest he would likely be greeted with a French veto.

However, there was concern among the top brass, with Lord Dannatt, former head of the British Army, saying that he could not support Mr Johnson because of his character.

The peer told The Telegraph: “Undoubtedly he has done a lot of good things and our full square support for Ukraine is fantastic. But I am afraid it is the personal stuff, the lack of integrity, the lack of trust. Frankly, we don’t want to expose Boris Johnson on the international stage for more ridicule. He is a national embarrassment.”

A senior Ministry of Defence figure also expressed doubts, given there was a likelihood that Emmanuel Macron, the French President, would veto him.

One source told The Telegraph: “The reality is that Nato sec gens are appointed by unanimous decision. Any country can veto. Do you think President Macron would nominate Boris Johnson to be the sec gen of Nato? It is a challenge for a Brit full stop. You need the United States to support you and the French to say ‘yes’.”

The next head of Nato was due to be appointed this September but was delayed by a year due to the crisis in Ukraine.

If nothing else, the news must have given Vladimir Putin a good chuckle today. If Boris Johnson becomes the head of NATO, there is a very good chance that Britain will find itself accidentally surrendering to Moldova within weeks.

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Europe’s First White Flag

The Hungarians are the first crack in the neo-liberal dam:

The Russia-Ukraine conflict could end the West’s dominance and shift the balance of power in the world, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has said. Russia launched a military campaign against the neighboring country in late February.

Orban argued that the decision to impose sanctions on Moscow and supply Kiev with heavy weapons de facto turned the EU and NATO member states into participants in the conflict, but ultimately yielded no results.

“Instead, today we are sitting inside a car with flat tires on all four wheels,” Orban said in a speech in the Romanian city of Baile Tusnad on Saturday.

“The world is not only not with us, but it is demonstratively not with us,” the PM added, arguing that, instead of thinking about gaining the upper hand on the battlefield in Ukraine, the West should now focus on achieving peace through negotiations.

Orban also warned that the conflict could easily put an end to Western supremacy and “create a multipolar world order.”

“We must try to persuade the West to develop a new strategy,” the PM said. He later added that the conflict “will end when the Americans and the Russians come to an agreement.”

Well, better late than never. But Viktor Orban is very unlikely to pull his fellow European leaders out of their vast morass of self-justifying moronics, as they clearly have absolutely no grasp of which side the current balance of power favors or that the US military is entirely incapable of bailing them out of the geopolitical trap in which they have needlessly caught themselves.

The most successful European countries of the future will be the first ones to break with the neo-liberal order and make a separate, independent, and sovereign peace with the BRICSIA nations. There is absolutely no point in trying to convince retards to be reasonable; if they were capable of being reasonable then they wouldn’t have engaged in their previous retardery in the first place.

If they can convince themselves that being a “humanitarian superpower” counterbalances a military superpower, and that redefining “neutrality” permits not only taking sides in a military conflict, but imposing economic sanctions on one side, and that fighting a war against both China and Russia at the same time is winnable, then they are ineducable and irrelevant.

While Britain left the EU, it did not break with the neo-liberal order. Orban would do well by his people to do both. The world is changing. And the world order will change.

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When Losing One War Isn’t Enough

Already on their knees due to NATO’s war on Russia, the leaders of the EU nevertheless appear to be determined to open a second front with China as well.

AFP: The European Parliament Vice President Nicola Beer is visiting Taiwan this week. She said today that Europe must stand firm with Taiwan and avoid turning a blind eye to the mainland’s threats to Taiwan. Do you have any response to these comments?

Zhao Lijian: Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory. The one-China principle is a widely recognized basic norm in international relations and the political foundation of China-Europe relations. The European Parliament is an official institution of the European Union. Hence its members and senior officials are expected to abide by the one-China principle. 

Over the past two years, the European Parliament has promulgated multiple Taiwan-related resolutions to support and embolden “Taiwan independence” forces. Such moves have gravely violated the one-China principle and poisoned the atmosphere of China-Europe relations. China firmly opposes all forms of official interactions between the EU side and the Taiwan region. We urge the EU side to earnestly abide by the one-China principle, speak and act with prudence on issues related to Taiwan, and prevent any serious disruption in China-Europe relations. 

It’s not exactly a mystery why China is siding so strongly with Russia and ignoring all the desperate pleas to join the failed economic sanctions. And just in case the European leaders didn’t get the message being sent by multiple members of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, the Global Times spelled it out for them.

Chinese Foreign Ministry denounced the European Parliament (EP) on Wednesday for having seriously violating the one-China principle and urged the EU body to stop any forms of official exchanges with China’s Taiwan region.

The responding remarks came after EP’s vice-president Nicola Beer arrived on Taiwan island leading a delegation and kicked off a three-day visit to show support to the secessionists in the island. Taiwan’s secessionist Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities hyped the fact that Beer is the first EP official at this level to visit the island in an official capacity.

Upon her arriving, Beer said the EU would not turn a blind eye to “China’s threats” toward the island, as she maintains that “Taiwan’s bloom is Europe’s bloom,” Taiwan-based media reported. Beer is scheduled to meet Taiwan’s regional leader Tsai Ing-wen during the visit.

“Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory. The one-China principle is a widely recognized basic norm in international relations and the political foundation of China-Europe relations. The EP is an official institution of the EU. Hence its members and senior officials are expected to abide by the one-China principle,” said Wang Wenbin, spokesperson of Chinese Foreign Ministry on Wednesday.

Over the past two years, the European Parliament has promulgated multiple Taiwan-related resolutions to support and embolden “Taiwan independence” forces. Such moves have gravely violated the one-China principle and poisoned the atmosphere of China-Europe relations, Wang stressed.

“China firmly opposes all forms of official interactions between the EU side and the Taiwan region,” Wang said, “We urge the EU to earnestly abide by the one-China principle, to speak and act with prudence on issues related to Taiwan, and to prevent any serious disruption in China-Europe relations.”

Zhao Lijian, Foreign Ministry, 19 July 2022

This diplomatic recklessness and retardery is breathtaking. If it weren’t for what we’ve witnessed over the last two years, it would be almost impossible to believe it was real.

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