Tag: war

Asymmetric Economic Warfare

Despite being more vulnerable to trade war pain due to its export surplus, China has adroitly managed to gain the upper hand in the economic conflict by taking advantage of the fact that semiconductors require input factors that are almost entirely under Chinese control.

Despite the show of progress and professed optimism for a potential de-escalation in the Madrid trade talks, the US wasted no time to launch a series of trade and tech sanctions against China immediately afterwards, just like it launched the sneak attack on Iran shortly after its 5th round nuclear talks with Tehran.

  • The US Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) tightened its chip ban on China, expanding the embargo to cover all semiconductor related software and equipment sales to China, in an effort to completely choke off China’s ability for chip production
  • Washington expanded its entity list (i.e. black list) to deny high end sales to businesses outside of China that have 50% or more Chinese ownership
  • It announced a plan to charge million-dollar port fees for any Chinese-operated shipping companies, Chinese-made ships, or non-Chinese shippers with Chinese-made ships in their fleet or on their order books, in an effort to undermine China’s shipping building industry
  • Washington also put a 721% tariff on Chinese clean energy products such as solar panels
  • It imposed 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive goods (e.g., wiring, batteries) under Section 232, targeting China’s dominance in EV/tech supply chains
  • It ended de minimis exemption for low-value packages, hitting e-commerce from Chinese platforms such as Temu and Shein

Faced with the bad faith from the Trump regime, China retaliated swiftly with a suite of counter actions:

  • Beijing published its latest restrictions on rare earth products to deny any sales of China-sourced rare earth magnets, processing technology, and equipment to foreign military and semi-conductor industry
  • It revoked import license for US lumber and soybeans. China was the biggest buyer of US soybeans in the past and accounted for over 50% its export. But it has ordered no purchase in 2025
  • Beijing announced it would charge reciprocal port fees for any US-operated or US-owned shipping companies. China runs 7 out of the world’s top ten container ports and has by far the highest port calls. Though the US builds few ships and few large shipping companies are US operated, US pension funds and asset managers own large shares in some of the world’s top shipping companies like Maersk which are now subject to the port fees. This move directly targets US financial interests
  • China also tightened up export of lithium ion and graphite anode, critical for green transformation
  • It expanded the unreliable list (China’s answer to the entity list) to cover more US defense contractors, tech firms, and critical mineral companies. It also launched anti-trust investigation against Qualcomm, a large US chip manufacturer

The latest tit for tats strongly indicates China is ready to move up the escalation ladder in its confrontation with the US on trade and technology issues.

In particular, Beijing’s enhanced rare earth restrictions are expected to deal a massive blow to high tech and military production in the US and its vassals.

In its embargo of chip technology against China, the US utilized the Foreign Direct Product Rule (FDPR) to block chip export to China if non-US made chips use any American technology, software, or equipment somewhere along the supply chain.

In essence, the FDPR allows US to claim jurisdiction to any products US technology touches even if it is made overseas such as the case with TSMC and ASML. The rule gives the US extraterritorial reach.

With the new rare earth restrictions, China flips the logic back to the US. Beijing has announced any non-Chinese companies operating anywhere must obtain Beijing’s approval to export rare earth magnets or semiconductors if those products contain Chinese original rare earth, or if they are produced using Chinese rare earth technology, process or equipment.

Beijing is denying all rare earth products, technology, equipment, and technical support to foreign end users it doesn’t approve.

The Chinese economic strategists understand that in an economic war, pain flows downstream. The US thought it was in the driver’s seat – and indeed, I assumed much the same due to the fact that the US economy would benefit greatly from refraining from importing goods from China and onshoring its now-absent industrial manufacturing capabilities.

But the stranglehold China has upon the materials required for modern warmaking materials, particularly drones and semiconductors, means that the USA will have to choose between its ability to make war and its ability to maintain the global Clown World economy. And for the first time, it is not possible for Uncle Sam to choose guns and butter.

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China Warns the USA

China is no longer content to permit the USA to throw its economic weight around without consequences.

Beijing has made it clear that it won’t yield to Washington’s latest tariff threats, urging the United States to seek a negotiated settlement instead of escalating tensions.

The warning came as part of an official statement released by China’s Ministry of Commerce on Sunday. The response followed US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, citing Beijing’s new restrictions on rare earth exports – vital materials used in products from smartphones to fighter jets.

“China’s position on the trade war is consistent: we do not want it, but we are not afraid of it,” the ministry stated.

The Chinese people are even less inclined to submit to US posturing on trade and interference with Chinese affairs.

We are simply sick and tired of the nonstop demonization of anything related to China by the US. This export ban of rare earth minerals is just the start. If the US does not correct its course, and stop interfering our legitimate rights for development, then we will engineer global economic collapse. Do you really think you can take China down, without us taking you down too? After that, we will let our weapons do the talking.

I was on Chinese state television during President Trump’s first term. Back then, neither the economists nor the journalist believed that Trump would start a trade war with China, which I suspect is why the initial Chinese response to all of the US provocations were so mild and passive. But now, with the panoply of sanctions, direct and indirect, that are being imposed upon China, such as the attempt to ban flights over Russian territory from landing in the USA because it provides Chinese airlines with an advantage of European and US airlines that can’t fly over Russian territory, the Chinese have decided to start playing hardball.

And Larry Johnson explains why China is, contra the expectations of economists like me who were primarily looking at the overall trade picture, actually in a very strong position vis-a-vis the USA in a trade war.

Drones
China dominates the US commercial drone market, with Chinese firms supplying the vast majority of units.

  • Import Share: Approximately 80-90% of US commercial drones are Chinese-made, led by DJI (50-70% market share) and Autel Robotics (15%). US imports of Chinese unmanned aircraft dropped 58.9% from Jan-Nov 2023 to Jan-Nov 2024 due to tariffs and restrictions, but China still holds over 70% of the residual market.
  • Broader Reliance: In 2025, US tariffs reached 170%, tripling prices and slashing imports by up to 75%, yet no viable domestic alternatives have scaled to replace this volume. Military and consumer sectors remain vulnerable, with ongoing Section 232 investigations into national security risks.
  • Implications: Disruptions could halt 80%+ of commercial operations (e.g., agriculture, surveying), per CSIS analysis.

Drone Components
US drone manufacturing heavily relies on Chinese-sourced parts, complicating diversification efforts.

  • Supply Chain Dependence: China provides 70-90% of key components like motors, flight controllers, imaging equipment, and batteries. In 2024, China restricted exports of these to the US, causing price surges of 200-300% and supply shortages.
  • Recent Trends: By April 2025, combined US tariffs hit 170% on components, disrupting global chains; 15 Chinese firms were added to the US Entity List in October 2025 for supplying parts used in conflicts. Indirect reliance persists via third countries (e.g., Vietnam assembly).
  • Implications: The US military drone supply chain is “deeply dependent” on Chinese inputs, per Forbes, with domestic production lagging; restrictions weakened Ukraine’s drone capabilities as a proxy example.

Processed Rare Earth Minerals
Processed rare earths (e.g., oxides, compounds) are essential for electronics, EVs, and defense; China controls ~90% of global processing.

  • Import Share: China supplied 70% of US rare earth compounds and metals imports from 2020-2023, with 2024 estimates holding at ~70-77% (10.4 million kg total imports). Net import reliance dropped to 80% in 2024 from >95% prior years, thanks to minor diversification (e.g., Malaysia 13%).
  • Value and Volume: 2024 imports valued at $170 million (down 11% from 2023); apparent consumption ~6,600 tons.
  • Recent Trends: In 2025, China tightened export controls on seven elements, impacting US defense; US mined 45 kilotons but exports 95% for Asian processing.
  • Implications: 70-80% exposure leaves sectors like renewables and missiles vulnerable; USGS warns of supply risks.

So while the USA is in a stronger overall position and will benefit greatly from onshoring manufacturing and industrial capacity during a trade war, China is in a much stronger military position if the trade war becomes an actual war, either direct or by proxy.

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Another Sign of the Inevitable

Turkey’s nationalists are beginning to openly push for a break with NATO and the Clown World West:

For decades, Turkish nationalism marched under the NATO flag. But now, one of Türkiye’s most influential right-wing leaders is calling for a turn East – toward Russia and China. His proposal may mark the country’s clearest ideological break with Atlanticism since joining the Alliance.

In September, Türkiye’s political landscape was shaken by a statement that many experts called sensational and potentially transformative. Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and a long-time ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan within the People’s Alliance, proposed the establishment of a strategic trilateral alliance involving Türkiye, Russia, and China to counter the “US-Israel evil coalition.”

Bahceli emphasized that such an alliance is “the most suitable option, considering reason, diplomacy, the spirit of politics, geographical conditions, and the strategic environment of the new century.” The proposal extends far beyond the usual nationalist agenda, positioning Türkiye as a player capable of initiating new formats of international cooperation.

To grasp the importance of this statement, we must note the historical context. Turkish pan-Turkism has traditionally been oriented toward the West, and nationalists were seen as staunch defenders of the pro-Atlantic course. In this light, Bahçeli’s call for an alliance with Moscow and Beijing marks a symbolic break from that tradition, reflecting growing distrust toward NATO and the US within Türkiye’s political landscape.

Bahceli’s comments are not random. Over the past few years, he has steadily ramped up his criticism of the West, advocating for Türkiye’s sovereign development “beyond blocs and alliances.” But this is the first time he has explicitly named Russia and China as preferred partners.

This obviously isn’t even remotely surprising, considering that I predicted it was going to happen over a year ago. But cooperation with an increasingly irrational and aggressive NATO is obviously not in Turkey’s best interests, given its past history of military conflict with Russia, and Turkey also has very serious reason to doubt that its allies will take its side in its coming conflict with Israel.

One thing that has escaped the notice of the mainstream analysts is the way that the fall of the Assad regime in Syria has set up an inevitable conflict between Turkey and Israel. Turkey clearly has a stronger historical claim to Jerusalem than the modern Jewish state, which was only held by the right of conquest by the Davidite dynasty for 270 years, less than the Romans (700 years), the Caliphates (332 years), or the Turks (401 years).

The elimination of Syria as a functional buffer state between Turkey and Israel means that war between the two states is inevitable. And both Erdogan and Turkey know that an AIPAC-dominated USA is going to side with Israel, which explains why the Turkish nationalists are now openly favoring an alliance with Russia and China, neither of whom are particularly enamoured of the Israelis in light of how Israel has been a) destabilizing the entire Middle East and b) attempting to ethnically cleanse the Palestinians from the region.

The fact that NATO has been comprehensively defeated by Russia almost certainly factors into the new Turkish perspective as well. What use is an alliance that can’t effectively defend you and is more likely to take the side of one of your primary enemies than yours? Logic dictates that the break will come, but it’s impossible to say when it will come. But the fact that the Turkish nationalists are now openly calling for it suggests that it will come sooner rather than later.

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Fighting the Previous War x4

President Trump wants to bring back the battleship:

US President Donald Trump suggested that he’s considering bringing back US Navy battleships, vessels that were retired decades ago, long after the kind of naval combat they were built for had become a thing of the past.

Battleships were heavily armed naval powerhouses built to slug it out with other warships. During the World Wars, they dominated the seas, but by the end of the Cold War, these once mighty warships were completely obsolete.

Speaking at a high-profile summit with top US military leaders at Marine Corps Base Quantico in Virginia on Tuesday morning, Trump said battleships are on the table.

“It’s something we’re actually considering,” he said, “the concept of battleship, nice six-inch side, solid steel, not aluminum, aluminum that melts if it looks at a missile coming at it. Starts melting as the missile’s about two miles away. No, those ships, they don’t make them that way anymore.”

T”I look at those ships, they came with the destroyers alongside of them, and man, nothing was gonna stop them,” he said. “Some people would say, ‘No, that’s old technology,’ I don’t know, I don’t think it’s old technology when you look at those guns.”

I can only assume this is some sort of joke. Battleships have been outdated and little more than floating targets since 1941 at the absolute latest. The aircraft carriers that replaced them are already outdated. But instead of seeking to catch up on the hypersonic missile technology that has rendered traditional sea and air war alike irrelevant, Trump wants to go back to pre-WWI gunboat diplomacy.

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France Seizes Russian Tanker

It appears that the French have bitten off considerably more than they’re going to want to chew:

French troops have boarded the deck of a tanker alleged to be from Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ stationed off the coast of France and suspected of involvement in drone flights over Denmark last month.

A source within the executive branch, speaking on condition of anonymity, told AFP earlier that the French navy had boarded the Boracay, a Benin-flagged vessel blacklisted by the European Union for being part of Russia’s sanction-busting ‘shadow fleet’ of ageing oil tankers.

French President Emmanuel Macron did not confirm reports of a connection to Danish drone flights but said on Wednesday that the ship had committed ‘serious offences’.

It is currently at anchor near the western city of Saint Nazaire.

It comes after the French Navy said on Tuesday that authorities were investigating a possible infraction by the Boracay tanker.

It was detained by earlier this year for sailing without a valid country flag.

The whole “shadow fleet” concept is absurd in the first place. It just means that Lloyd’s of London and other Western insurance companies don’t insure Russian-owned vessels. In any event, if the vessel isn’t released soon, I have no doubt that Russia will find a way to make France pay appropriately for its actions.

It’s informative to observe the French will stop Russian oil tankers, but not migrant dinghies.

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The Transformation of the EU

Simplicius points out how Clown World is attempting to transform the European Union from an economic free trade zone into a military bloc:

The Moldovan election has come and gone with the expected “democratic” results. Maia Sandu entrenches her power as another ex-banking head (“Sandu served as an adviser to the Executive Director at the World Bank.”) to lead a Western nation.

Now that the tentacles of control over Europe are falling into place for the cabal, they are ratcheting up the war machine to shoehorn the conflict into its next natural stage, which will necessarily include mass military ramp ups and provocations against Russia in order to force the EU vassals into a military ‘point-of-no-return’.

The new directive taking root is that Europe is “already at war”, which meme’s purpose is to slowly transition the entire EU into a full-on military bloc. We’ve already commented last time on how Ursula von der Leyen’s rhetoric has shown that her only priorities as leader remain war and ‘global health’ crisis alarmism. Now, slowly but surely, these elites are trying to turn the EU into a kind of super-NATO, where the central authority actually has power to force these nations to militarize and go to war, as opposed to NATO’s looser, more ‘suggestive’ structure.

I really fail to see how they’re going to turn the unhealthy, over-vaccinated, demoralized young men of Europe, the majority of whom absolutely hate the EU and their corrupt national governments, into any sort of fighting force whatsoever. Perhaps they could try drafting all of the migrant men, but then they’d end up with the usual sort of Third World military that isn’t useful for much more than running away as soon as the fighting starts.

And no one outside of the Finns and Poles have any appetite for fighting Russia whatsoever. This attempted militarization, combined with the pathetic false flags that have convinced absolutely no one of an imminent Russian invasion, strikes me as more desperate attempts to salvage some sort of continued US involvement than anything else. But that doesn’t mean the situation is safe, since that same desperation might inspire the Eurocrats to do something truly and astonishingly stupid like attacking Kaliningrad or Hungary.

UPDATE: It looks like more of the usual false flaggery.

Russia states that Ukraine is preparing a provocation in Poland — a staged infiltration of a supposed Russian-Belarusian sabotage group into NATO territory. According to the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), the operation will involve the “Freedom of Russia” Legion and the Belarusian “Kalinoŭski Regiment,” both fighting on the side of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The plan reportedly includes simulating an attack on critical infrastructure inside Poland to create the appearance of Russian involvement. Moscow emphasizes that Warsaw is aware of the plan — it was allegedly developed jointly by Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) and Polish special services. The SVR also reports that recent drone incursions into Poland and Romania were organized by Kiev with the goal of drawing NATO’s European members into direct confrontation with Moscow.

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A Real Russian Attack

A “Russian” attack that does no real damage is an obvious false flag, as evidenced by this recent strike on a group of “instructors” and “targeting crews” in Ukraine.

Two Russian hypersonic missiles struck Ukraine’s Starokostyantyniv airbase today, destroying five (5) US-supplied F-16 Fighter jets, an unknown number of British-supplied Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles, along with “Dozens” of NATO instructors and targeting crews. According to a Ukrainian Telegram channel from the site: “Everyone is dead, everything is destroyed, we are in agony. Everything on the base is burning.”

I really don’t see how the European NATO forces expect to survive engagement with the Russian Army. Do they really think that nuclear threats are going to make Russia back down? Do they imagine that the USA has enough conventional forces to impress the Russian generals?

What, exactly, are supposed to be the victory conditions?

Remember, the US military not only can’t stop hypersonic missiles, it also doesn’t have any of its own.

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More False Flag Warnings

I first warned about the false flags that would inevitably be attributed to Russia back in January 2022, before the Special Military Operation even began. In the aftermath of the pathetic attempt at pretending six duct-taped drones had attacked rural Polish farmhouses, a number of observers are increasingly concerned that NATO is finally going to stage a more serious false flag with a pre-prepared “response” intended to trigger a US defense of the soon-to-be overwhelmed European forces.

World War III will start very soon if the information about Kyiv’s plans to carry out a false-flag operation in Romania and Poland is confirmed.

According to the available information, the plan is to repair several downed Russian UAVs, send them — disguised as ‘Russian drones’ — to NATO hubs in Poland and Romania, conduct a disinformation campaign in Europe with the intent to blame everything on Moscow and thereby trigger an armed conflict between Russia and NATO.” (c) Russian MFA

On Kyiv’s plans to carry out a false-flag operation in Romania and Poland

Today several Hungarian media outlets reported on Zelensky’s plans to carry out sabotage in Romania and Poland in order to blame Russia. Thus, on Bankova they are preparing their own “Gleiwitz incident” — to create a casus belli for a war between Russia and NATO.

According to the available information, the Kyiv regime’s plan is as follows:

  • Repair several downed or intercepted Russian UAVs.
  • Equip them with a combat warhead.
  • Send UAVs controlled by Ukrainian specialists — disguised as “Russian drones” — to major NATO transport hubs in Poland and Romania.
  • Simultaneously conduct a disinformation campaign in Europe to blame everything on Moscow.
  • Ignite an armed conflict between the Russian Federation and NATO.

I very much doubt it’s going to work, despite what will be an absolute media blitzkrieg by the European, UK, and US medias, because it’s going to be absolutely obvious that Russia had nothing to do whatever the false flag turns out to be. And there are three reasons why it will be absolutely obvious.

  1. When Russia attacks, it does so in an open and unmistakable manner. Nor does it bother to hide its intentions or conceal its actions.
  2. False flags invariably involve minimal loss compared to real strikes. Russia attacks with an average of 187.5 drones and 8.4 missiles per day. An attack on NATO would be an escalation, so any real attack on NATO would presumably consist of at least 800 drones and 15 missiles. Anything short of this level should be assumed to be a false flag.
  3. If and when Russia attacks NATO, it will attack command centers, weapons depots, troop concentrations, and airfields. Attacks on trivial and tertiary targets, especially if they involve a minimal loss of life or primarily civilian casualties, should be assumed to be false flags.

More false flags are definitely coming. But there is no reason to assume that WWIII will be triggered as a result, since the Russians know perfectly well what the desperate Kiev regime and its European paymasters are trying to do. As does the Trump administration.

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The Meeting

Hal Turner reports an unprecedented meeting of the US military brass:

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has summoned ALL Generals and Admirals of the United States armed forces, to a meeting next week at Marine Corps Base, Quantico, VA. Top commanders in conflict zones and senior military leaders stationed throughout Europe, the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region are among those expected to attend Hegseth’s meeting. Everyone with the rank of Brigadier General or above is expected to attend.

This is an unprecedented action, a gathering of ~620 senior officers, called on short notice and without a stated reason.

It appears the ENTIRE command structure of the United States military will all be in one place at the same time early next week. The national security implications are huge; not only for having all of the command officers in one place at the same time – and adversary could wipe them out – but also for the unstated reason(s).

A Senior Pentagon media correspondent told me: ‘I’ve never seen anything like this in my past 30 years of reporting on the U.S. military. We might be going to war.’

I very much doubt this has anything to do with China or Russia. Whatever is going on is probably something Russia is down with, because only Russia has the unstoppable ability to end the meeting with a bang.

Obviously, it would be nice if this signified the launch of open and declared war against Clown World and the Deep State, but that’s just the hopium talking. It could be something as trivial as war with Venezuela. But it probably isn’t the usual nothing.

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Neocons and the Fall of NATO

Robert Kagan, the eminence grise of the neocons, has been steadily ratcheting down his objectives. Now he’s merely hoping to preserve the existence of NATO.

Putin’s primary goal right now is to force Ukraine’s surrender. Aiding Ukraine has already begun to be a controversial subject in Poland; the prospect of Russian attacks in retaliation could drive up opposition, especially if the United States proves unreliable. That in turn will force Ukrainians to contemplate a world without foreign assistance.

But Putin also has his eye on a bigger prize: the collapse of the NATO alliance. For many months Putin has been waging a “shadow war” against NATO member states—one that the Center for European Policy Analysis describes as “a concerted and coordinated campaign of attacks” aimed at raising the costs and risks to those nations aiding Ukraine. These have included sabotage of key infrastructure, arson, and assassination attempts against European defense executives. The Trump administration’s response has been to tell the Europeans they need to defend themselves, because the United States can no longer afford to do so; to hint at substantial withdrawals of American forces from Europe; and, most recently, to cancel a multiyear defense-training program for the Baltic allies.

The “shadow war” was a characteristic Putin probe to see what the United States would tolerate. The Trump administration’s lack of response encouraged Putin to take the next step and bring the “shadow war” out from the shadows. By overtly attacking Poland, Putin has forced the question of America’s security commitment to the fore. For Trump to do nothing in response to the constant strikes against civilian targets in Ukraine was one thing. If he does nothing in response to a Russian attack on Poland, Europeans will have to stop fooling themselves and face the fact that the Americans really aren’t there for them.

Of course, you have to learn how to read between the lines with people like this. While it’s true that Putin would like to see NATO collapse, he’s obviously not trying to accomplish that by sending a few old drones to crash into country houses in Poland or buzzing the Stockholm airport. These are just the pathetic false flags being waved by the Europeans in a futile attempt to talk the US military into defending them in the war against Russia they started.

If Ukraine doesn’t surrender, NATO will be destroyed. NATO will likely fall apart on its own when the USA withdraws from Europe, but contra Kagan’s ahistorical assertions, it never had any ability to defeat Russia at any time since 2022.

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