Tag: war

The cost of foreign interventions

Take these numbers and cram them down the throats of everyone who declares the USA absolutely has to intervene in the latest round of Levantine slaughter:

By the end of the year, Congress will have appropriated more money for Afghanistan’s reconstruction, when adjusted for inflation, than the United States spent rebuilding 16 European nations after World War II under the Marshall Plan.

A staggering portion of that money — $104 billion — has been mismanaged and stolen. Much of what was built is crumbling or will be unsustainable. Well-connected Afghans smuggled millions of stolen aid money in suitcases that were checked onto Dubai-bound flights. The Afghan government largely turned a blind eye to widespread malfeasance. Even as revelations of fraud and abuse stacked up, the United States continued shoveling money year after year because cutting off the financial spigot was seen as a sure way to doom the war effort.

As the Pentagon winds down its combat mission there at the end of the year, it’s tempting to think of the Afghan war as a chapter that is coming to an end — at least for American taxpayers. But, as things stand, the United States and its allies will continue paying Afghanistan’s bills for the foreseeable future. That commitment was solidified Tuesday as the American ambassador in Kabul and Afghanistan’s security adviser signed a bilateral security agreement that will keep a small contingent of NATO troops there for at least two years.

The United States and NATO partners recently agreed to spend $5.1 billion a year to pay for the army and police, until at least 2017. Western donors are expected to continue to give billions more for reconstruction and other initiatives, recognizing that Afghanistan won’t be weaned off international aid anytime soon. In fact, the government appears to be broke.

The actual figure is $109 billion. That is nearly $1,000 per taxpayer. And what did you get for your money? It’s one thing to say “we must do this” or “we must do that”. But then, recollect that it’s going to cost you over $1,000 in order to feel good about pretending to prevent one group of murderous foreigners from killing another group of foreigners, who not infrequently were previously murdering the other group.

And, of course, that doesn’t count the $42.50 you’ll be spending every year on the Afghan army and police. Or the social and economic costs of importing the inevitable allies and refugees to the USA and settling them there.

Brave women warriors

What was that again about women being capable of front-line combat?

The man who scaled the White House fence and was able to run through the front doors made it farther into the building than was previously reported, CBS News has learned. Secret Service Director Julia Pierson is scheduled to answer questions about the incident when she appears at a hearing of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Tuesday morning.

The man, 42-year-old Omar J. Gonzalez, ran unobstructed for 70 yards across the front lawn of the White House before entering through the North Portico. On the way, he brushed by a Secret Service officer with a drawn gun, sources tell CBS News’ Bill Plante.

Gonzalez then proceeded to run through the entrance hall to the cross hall of the White House, past the staircase that leads up to the first family’s residence. He was confronted by a female Secret Service agent, who he overpowered, and made it all the way to the East Room, Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, told CBS News, citing whistleblowers.

If trained, armed Secret Service agents aren’t able to deal with unarmed lunatics, what chance do they have against battle-hardened ISIS soldiers and elite Spetsnaz special forces?

And just think, the people overseeing these jokers are responsible for dealing with the Ebola crisis….

Competitive asset-stripping

Russia calls the globalist bluff:

Russian courts could get the
green light to seize foreign assets on Russian territory under a draft
law intended as a response to Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis. The draft, which was submitted to parliament on Wednesday
by a pro-Kremlin deputy, would also allow state compensation for an
individual whose property is seized in foreign jurisdictions.
Italian authorities this week seized property worth about
30 million euros ($40 million) belonging to companies controlled by
Arkady Rotenberg, an ally of President Vladimir Putin targeted by the
U.S. and European Union sanctions.
The draft law, published on a parliamentary database,
would allow for compensation for Russian citizens who suffer because of
an “unlawful court act” in a foreign jurisdiction and clear the way to
foreign state assets in Russia being seized, even if they are subject to
international immunity.

Asset-stripping sanctions aren’t going to be very effective if the Russians simply compensate those whose assets are stripped by taking them from Western companies with Russian assets. This could have some interesting knock-on effects in the NBA.

And isn’t it remarkable how the sanctity of free trade is so readily disrupted when something is at stake besides the livelihoods and standards of living of the working and middle classes?

Baghdad falling

Baghdad stands on the brink as we observe 4th Generation Warfare in action:

Fierce fighting has been reported on the outskirts of Baghdad where ISIS militants are attempting to seize control of the Iraqi capital – despite ongoing Western airstrikes against the terror group.

The fighting is taking place just one mile to the west of the city, with government forces desperately trying to hold off the militants, who allegedly killed up to 1,000 soldiers during clashes yesterday.

ISIS have held a number of towns and villages close to the Iraqi capital since earlier in the year, when government troops melted away following a lightning advance in the west of the country – enabling the terrorist group to seize further swaths of territory for their so-called caliphate.

Once ISIS takes Baghdad, I think it will be time to drop the “so-called” from the description of the caliphate. I’m far from only one who expected a new caliphate to arise in the Middle East, but I am a little astonished at the speed with which it has risen and filled the vaccuum left by the ill-considered American conquest of Ba’athist Iraq. Consider William Lind’s predictions back in 2004:

An article in the Friday, March 29 Washington Post pointed to the long-expected opening of Phase III of America’s war with Iraq. Phase I was the jousting contest, the formal “war” between America’s and Iraq’s armies that ended with the fall of Baghdad. Phase II was the War of National Liberation waged by the Baath Party and fought guerilla-style. Phase III, which is likely to prove the decisive phase, is true Fourth Generation war, war waged by a wide variety of non-state Iraqi and other Islamic forces for objectives and motives that reach far beyond politics.

The Post article, “Iraq Attacks Blamed on Islamic Extremists,” contains the following revealing paragraph:

In the intelligence operations room at the 1st Armored Division’s headquarters (in Baghdad), wall-mounted charts identifying and linking insurgents depict the changing battlefield. Last fall the organizational chart of Baathist fighters and leaders stretched for 10 feet, while charts listing known Islamic radicals took up a few pieces of paper. Now, the chart of Iraqi religious extremists dominates the room, while the poster depicting Baathist activity has shrunk to half of its previous size.

The article goes on to quote a U.S. intelligence officer as adding, “There is no single organization that’s behind all this. It’s far more decentralized than that.”

Welcome to Phase III. The remaining Ba’athists will of course continue their War of National Liberation, and Fourth Generation elements have been active from the outset. But the situation map in the 1st Armored Division’s headquarters reveals the “tipping point”: Fourth Generation war is now the dominant form of war against the Americans in Iraq.

And with the fall of Baghdad, Phase III of America’s war with Iraq will be complete and mark America’s defeat by the very 4th Generation elements of whom Lind warned ten years ago.

Dark portents of things to come

I had a very interesting conversation with a retired general today. (No, not the former USMC general of whom you’re probably thinking.) We were discussing how William Lind and his 4GW seminar had seen ISIS, or some reasonable facsimile therein, coming more than ten years ago. I thought it was interesting that the general, too, had picked up on this.

As I was editing Lind’s collection of columns that we will be publishing this fall, a few passages leaped out at me. Consider:

The current phase of the war in Iraq is driven by three different elements: chaos, a war of national liberation (which is inflicting most of the casualties) and 4th Generation War. In time, the 4th Generation elements will come to predominate, as they fill the vacuum created by the destruction of the Iraqi state.

That was written back in 2003. And that is exactly what has happened, as the non-state elements have replaced the Ba’athist national elements. Here is one that indicated, very early on, the likelihood that the resistance was not an amateur operation.

More significant than the destruction of two American tanks is the fact that Iraqi guerrillas are attacking tanks. This is an indicator that the guerilla war is developing significantly more rapidly than reports in Washington suggest. With the second stage of the Iraq war just six months old, one would expect the guerillas to be attacking only weak, vulnerable targets, such as supply columns. The fact that they are going after the most difficult of all ground targets, heavy tanks, is surprising. It means they lack neither confidence nor skill.

And finally, an early observation of the transnational nature of the developing 4GW forces.

One other indicator. A friend recently noted to me that the rapidly improving techniques we see from the Iraqi guerrillas bear a striking resemblance to those used by the Chechen guerrillas against the Russians. Might it be that we are not the only ones to have a coalition in Iraq?

ON WAR is going to be a monster of around 750 pages. Spanning six years of war, it is a treasure trove of military theory being formulated and refined in real time. If you have any interest in mil-SF, military history, or understanding the shape of the 21st century, it is a book you’ll almost surely want to read.

Women in combat

One aspect of the Eric Frein manhunt that has mostly escaped readers is the way that this episode, featuring a strong, independent female police officer under fire, doesn’t bode well for the champions of women in combat:

Late on the night of Sept. 12, Cpl. Bryon Dickson, 38 years old and the father of two young sons, was ending his shift. As he walked out of the Blooming Grove barracks, a neat, tan-brick building nearly surrounded by woods, he suddenly dropped to the ground.

A colleague who was just beginning her shift heard a sound like a firecracker, saw Corporal Dickson on the ground — a few yards from flagpoles flying the American and Pennsylvania flags — and went out to help, only to hear another shot that kicked up a cloud on the lobby floor.

She retreated into the building and tried, unsuccessfully, to call 911. Her wounded colleague asked her to bring him inside, but she could not reach him. She called out for assistance.

Trooper Alex Douglass, also just beginning his shift, walked up from the parking lot toward Corporal Dickson. He, too, fell to the ground, shot, but crawled to safety into the lobby. Using bravery and the shield of a marked S.U.V., other troopers managed to carry their brother into the barracks.

In other words, she heard a shot, ran away, didn’t shoot back, couldn’t manage to call for help, and wouldn’t take the risk of going back out to drag the wounded into shelter. Then, when other male officers arrived, she didn’t help them go out to get him.

Also, since when are police officers “assassinated” rather than “shot” or even “murdered”? They are armed civilians and petty agents of the state, not heads of state. Are they really to be considered “politically prominent” now?

The USAF doesn’t need God anymore

And the long slow decline into military irrelevance continues:

Members of the U.S. Air Force will no longer be required to say “so help me God” during their enlistment oath. A legal review of rules that required the phrase occurred after the American Humanist Association threatened to sue on behalf of an atheist airman. The unnamed airman at Creech Air Force Base in Nevada was denied re-enlistment Aug. 25 after crossing the phrase out of the oath.

It would be interesting to see the USA try to defend itself if Christians simply refuse to serve it any longer. Of course, allegiance to the state is rapidly disappearing as the connection between nation and government becomes increasingly tenuous.

A German knows what Germany is. The Scots, for all their fear of independence, know what Scotland is. What does “America” mean any longer? It’s certainly not “One Nation Under God” anymore.

But the USAF is on the verge of technological irrelevance anyhow. It won’t prioritize the one mission for which it is actually needed, infantry air support, and the combination of anti-aircraft lasers and unmanned drones will supplant its other missions.

Isn’t it amazing how many traditions that have been around for decades, if not centuries, are being belatedly discovered to have been unlawful all along?

Into the blast furnace

The UK’s demographics are illustrating the truth of GK Chesterton’s observations concerning the human disinclination to believe in nothing:

In England’s second city of Birmingham, of 278,623 youngsters, 97,099 were registered as Muslim compared with 93,828 as Christian. The rest were of other faiths such as Hindu or Jewish, or none.

A similar trend has emerged in the cities of Bradford and Leicester, the towns of Luton, in Bedfordshire, and Slough in Berkshire, as well as the London boroughs Newham, Redbridge and Tower Hamlets, where nearly two-thirds of children are Islamic.

Last night experts said more must be done to ensure that society does not become polarised along religious lines.

I think it is fairly obvious that when people are being beheaded, it is a little late for that. To quote Jerry Pournell’s apt observation, there will be war.

Professor Ted Cantle, of the ICoCo Foundation, which promotes community cohesion, said: ‘What we are seeing are several trends running together. There is a long-term decline in support for the established religions, notably Christianity; continuing immigration from the Asian sub-continent; and higher fertility among the Muslim population, which has a considerably lower age profile.

‘There is also deepening segregation exacerbated by the loss of white population from cities and more intensive concentration of black and minority ethnic groups as a result of replacement.

‘This is the real problem, as residential segregation is generally compounded by school and social segregation.

If he thinks segregation is a problem, just try desegregating those communities. Because communities that can’t peacefully segregate will always eventually find another, less palatable means of doing so.

Well done, secular Britain. Out of its desire to weaken Christianity’s societal dominance, it imported Islam. That’s like leaping out of the frying pan and into the blast furnace.

Fourth time’s the charm

Obama is merely the latest U.S. president to attempt to make a pointless gesture that will resolve absolutely nothing by bombing Iraq:

Did last night’s primetime presidential speech announcing expanding authorization for airstrikes in Iraq and Syria feel kind of familiar? Like you’ve heard it before?

That’s probably because you have. You’ve been hearing for more than two decades, from presidents on both sides of political aisle. At this point, bombing Iraq is practically a American presidential tradition.

And, via the magic of YouTube and The Huffington Post’s Sam Stein, you can watch every president back to the first George Bush announce a new plan to launch military strikes in Iraq.

Presidents and the public love airstrikes because it feels like war without actually risking any American lives. Never mind that they are an act of war and a direct provocation that legitimates any amount of “terrorism” directed at the American public.

The Great War 100 years later

esr reviews Collision of Empires, a history of WWI:

Collision of Empires (Prit Buttar; Osprey Publishing) is a clear and accessible history that attempts to address a common lack in accounts of the Great War that began a century ago this year: they tend to be centered on the Western Front and the staggering meat-grinder that static trench warfare became as outmoded tactics collided with the reality of machine guns and indirect-fire artillery.

Concentration on the Western Front is understandable in the U.S. and England; the successor states of the Western Front’s victors have maintained good records, and nationals of the English-speaking countries were directly involved there. But in many ways the Eastern Front story is more interesting, especially in the first year that Buttar chooses to cover – less static, and with a sometimes bewilderingly varied cast. And, arguably, larger consequences. The war in the east eventually destroyed three empires and put Lenin’s Communists in power in Russia.

Prit Buttar does a really admirable job of illuminating the thinking of the German, Austrian, and Russian leadership in the run-up to the war – not just at the diplomatic level but in the ways that their militaries were struggling to come to grips with the implications of new technology. The extensive discussion of internecine disputes over military doctrine in the three officer corps involved is better than anything similar I’ve seen elsewhere.

There is more at his site. However, as a corrective to this obviously
deficient history of the Great War, allow me to recommend the book I just
finished reading, namely, CATASTROPHE 1914 by Max Hastings, which can be
summarized as follows.

  1. The Great War was the inevitable consequence of dastardly German militarism. Since the
    Kaiser didn’t forcibly stop Austria from invading Serbia, the Germans
    are entirely to blame for making British lads volunteer to travel to the continent
    and die in the mud.
  2. Moltke was a psychological train wreck wholly unsuitable for command.
  3. French was a psychological train wreck wholly unsuitable for command.
  4. Churchill was an excitable loon wholly unsuitable for command of any unit larger than a company.
  5. If it were not for the brave and heroic British Expeditionary Force
    defending freedom, justice, and democracy, the Germans would have broken
    through the French lines and conquered the continent.
  6. The French did a little fighting too. So did the Russians. The Serbs
    killed lots of Austrians. None of this had any serious effect on the
    war, which was won by British courage and pluck.
  7. The death of millions was worth it in the end, because Germany is bad and if the Central Powers had won, Europe would not have the European Union today.