Tag: trainwreck

I Stand Corrected

Cancel everything. Forget the forthcoming books. Recant, recant, recant.

Ladies and gentlemen, a case has been made.

Evolution is impossible! The rate of change is too slow! It takes intelligent design.”

Bro… Mexicans managed to turn wolves into Demon Rats in under 2000 years. All with zero intelligence involved whatsoever.

It’s hard to decide which evotard defense is more hapless:

  1. What about PARALLEL fixation? (Already specifically included in the rate.)
  2. What about domesticated dog breeds? (Literally IGM and Intelligent Design.)
  3. What about DRIFT? (See the Moran model, even less possible than natural selection.)
  4. What about NEUTRAL drift and KIMURA? (You just killed the human race in less than a century.)

And yet they aggressively present these arguments as if they are irrefutable. Not only are they easily refutable, they are downright retarded.

Anyhow, I’m updating the ebook and the print edition, and adding another chapter to THE FROZEN GENE, simply to deal with the latter retards. They seem to be the most persistent as well as unable to grasp how the abstract math rules out their argument. So, we’ll address it, even though it shouldn’t be necessary to stoop to that level of retardery.

However, on the positive side, you’ll notice how they’re uniformly fleeing the inexorable math of MITTENS and totally refusing to even try engaging with it to rescue natural selection. They’ve already abandoned Darwin, now they’re just trying to hold onto the last vestiges still theoretically capable of providing a foundation for Enlightenment materialism.

You understand that’s what this is all about. They couldn’t care less about Darwin, evolution, or science, regardless of their affectations. They observably don’t know anything about those things. What they’re trying to preserve is their outdated, disproven, 19th-century materialist philosophy that supports their hatred for Christianity and tradition. Probability Zero methodically undermines the entire foundation of their secular anti-faith by washing away Darwin’s universal acid.

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The Drift Deathmarch

Because biologists can’t math, and because the “I Fucking Love Science” crowd are retards, they also can’t grasp the way in which the Law of Large Numbers and the Bernoulli Barrier completely rule out their retreat to parallel fixation based on neutral mutations, as Grok did when a reader confronted it with MITTENS and the Moran model.

No meaningful “time to convert” calculation exists here, as fixation isn’t sequential or rate-limited by selection costs.

  • Available time: ~6–7 million years since human-chimp last common ancestor.
  • Generations: Assuming ~25–30 year human-like generation time, ~200,000–300,000 generations.
  • Years: The divergence accumulated gradually over those ~6–7 million years via mostly neutral processes + some selection.

Models easily account for ~20 million lineage-specific fixes without issue.

This is an unbelievably and obviously stupid argument, but it is nevertheless the retreat of choice for those who avoid reading the book and have no idea what a Bernoulli is. And, of course, they don’t do the math, which doesn’t actually work, but because there are considerably more neutral mutations than beneficial ones, it doesn’t work less, which apparently is good enough for retards.

So Athos and I kicked around a few ways to dumb things down sufficiently for them, and when we targeted an 85-IQ range, we finally landed on an explanation that should be able to penetrate their feeble little minds.

The short version: neutral processes + parallel fixation = total species death in 2-3 centuries. Therefore, it cannot be a viable explanation for the 20,000,000 post-CHLCA fixations over the last 6-7 million years.

The long version: When confronted with the mathematical impossibility of natural selection producing 20 million genetic fixations in 202,500 generations, defenders of neo-Darwinian evolution often retreat to “neutral drift”—the claim that mutations spread through populations by random chance rather than selective advantage. This is what they mean when they invoke “mostly neutral processes operating in parallel.” The appeal is obvious: if drift doesn’t require beneficial mutations, perhaps it can escape the reproductive ceiling that limits how many mutations selection can push through a population simultaneously.

Now, there are obvious problems with this retreat. First, Darwin has now been entirely abandoned. Second, it doesn’t actually exist, because Kimura’s model is just a statistical abstraction. But third, and most important, is the fatal flaw that stems from their complete failure to understand what their retreat from selection necessarily requires.

If you ignore natural selection to avoid the reproductive ceiling, then you turn it off for all mutations—including harmful ones. Under pure drift, a harmful mutation has exactly the same probability of spreading through the population as a neutral one. Since 75% of all mutations are harmful, the genome accumulates damaging mutations three times faster than it accumulates neutral ones. Selection, which normally removes these harmful mutations, has been switched off by hypothesis.

The mathematics are straightforward from this point. At observed mutation rates and population sizes, the drift model fixes roughly 7.6 harmful mutations per actual generation. Using standard estimates for the damage caused by each mutation, collapse occurs in 9 generations—about 225 years. The drift model requires 7.5 million years to deliver its promised neutral fixations, but it destroys the genome in between 225 and 2250 years. The proposed drift model kills off the entire proto-human race thousands of times faster than it can produce the observed changes in the modern human genome.

The defender of Neo-Darwinian who turns to drift faces an inescapable dilemma. Either selection is operating—in which case the reproductive ceiling applies and parallel fixation fails—or selection is not operating, in which case harmful mutations accumulate, the genome degenerates, and the species goes extinct. You cannot turn selection off for neutral mutations while keeping it on for harmful ones.

The Bernoulli Barrier closes the door with a mathematical proof. The Drift Deathmarch closes it with a corpse. Some people need to see the corpse. You can’t drift your way to a human brain. You can only drift your way to a corpse.

And Probability Zero just got a bonus chapter…

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From Theory to Farce

A number of people have asked if we are going to do a print edition of Probability Zero. The answer is yes. We will put out both a hardcover and a Signed First Edition in leather. We already have French and German ebooks ready that will be released next week, and we’re talking to a Japanese publisher about an edition there as well.

Thanks to the ebook readers, we’ve cleaned up a few typos and version 003 should be up on Amazon this weekend, including a hilarious new quote for chapter 3 from the father of the Modern Synthesis that succinctly explains the heart of the fundamental flaw of the Neo-Darwinians. I told you biologists hated the math and refused to do it, but here it is right from the horse’s mouth:

Chapter 3: The Miseducation of the Evolutionist

I agree that the principles of genetics must be thoroughly explained, but there is no need for so much Mendelian arithmetic.
—Ernst Mayr, What Evolution Is: From Theory to Fact, (2002)

Well, Ernst, if you’d just done a little more Mendelian arithmetic, or even listened to Eden, Ulam, and Schützenberger back in 1966 when they told you in great detail about all the problems the math was obviously was going to pose for your pet theory, you wouldn’t have made such an all-time ass of yourself in the annals of science.

From theory to fact? More like from theory to farce.

It’s mildly amusing to observe that just one year after Mayr wrote that, the mapping of the human genome that provided empirical support for the Mendelian math he disdained would be completed.

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88 Million x

I had to add this to PROBABILITY ZERO, my new #1 bestseller in Biology, Genetics, and Evolution at the last second, simply because it made my point about the fact that evolutionary biologists don’t even think about the math or the timescales involved at all. Forget actually doing the math, it never even occurs to them that if things happen in a certain way, and in a certain order, then there are always going to be hard time limits for those things to happen.

Remember, according to the current scientific consensus, there are between 6 and 7 million years for 20 million base pairs to fixate throughout the entire human population. Based on my necessary Bio-Cycle correction to the bacteria-based Kimura fixation model, that leaves 146,250 generations to fixate all of those base pairs. Set aside for now whether that is possible or not, the point here is to demonstrate how wildly off-base the evolutionary biologists are, and keep in mind that Richard Dawkins wrote this in 2024, five years AFTER I’d already laid out the mathematical impossibility of natural selection in my original MITTENS post.

JBS Haldane made a relevant hypothetical calculation. He assumed a selection pressure in favour of a new mutation so weak as to seem trivial: for every 1,000 individuals with the mutation who survive, 999 individuals without the mutation will survive. That selection pressure is much too weak to be detected by scientists working in the field. Given Haldane’s assumption, how long will it take for such a new mutation to spread through half the population? His answer was a mere 11,739 generations if the gene is dominant, 321,444 generations if it is recessive. In the case of many animals, that number of generations is an eye-blink by geological standards.

—Richard Dawkins, The Genetic Book of the Dead (2024)

Dawkins somehow imagines that even 642,888 generations for one single base pair is more than enough time for evolution to take place. He’s off by a mere factor of 4.4 x 20 million, or 87,916,307x.

That’s how bad the state of evolutionary biology is. That’s how absurdly clueless their famous, bestselling scientists are.

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2025: The Year Europe Lost its Mind

Or perhaps it was the year it became obvious that the European elites were taking orders from someone who isn’t the Americans and who doesn’t give a damn about the various European peoples.

To be fair to the dismal year on the way out, at least 2025 won’t be a hard act to beat. In particular, if last January anyone was recklessly optimistic enough to hope for the West to come to its senses about its catastrophic relationship with Russia and the war in and over Ukraine, they will have been largely disappointed. (Let’s not waste time on those who were still dreaming about actually defeating Russia: the clinically delusional and deliberately disingenuous are an unrewarding topic.)

It is true that the disappointment delivered by 2025 in this area has not been total. There has been one major positive – if still incomplete and reversible – development: After many abrupt twists and turns, Washington seems to have settled on a policy of “strategic stability” (in the language of the new National Security Strategy) with Moscow. This marks a possible path to mutually beneficial normalization, perhaps even a future détente. (I will plead the Trump Unpredictability Caveat here, though: if the American president and disrupter-in-chief flipflops again, don’t blame this author.)

But, at the same time, the almost 30 countries best labeled NATO-EU Europe, with politically rigid and ideologically zealous Germans in the lead not only in Berlin but Brussels as well, have found the single most perverse issue to finally assert some independence from their US overlords: stalling an end to the Ukraine War. This obstructionism has been so obvious that even (some) Western observers have started noticing it.

Though little noticed, this is actually a historic reversal. Silly pundits used to say that Americans are from Mars and Europeans from Venus. But now when even the traditionally ultra-bellicose Americans have finally been backing out of an ever-worsening confrontation between, in effect, the West and Russia, NATO-EU Europe’s odd – and unpopular – elites have resisted the prospect of peace.

The insanity, the oddity, and the unpopularity of the European elites cannot be exaggerated. I don’t know anyone, of any political persuasion, who actually supports anything the EU is doing. No one wants war. No one will be willing to go to war. If they try to make anyone go to war, they’ll fight their own governments before they’ll fight the Russians.

It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if the Russians already have a plan in place to help those who would rather fight the people that want to fight Russia than fight them.

I expect more than one European government to collapse completely or be overthrown before 2026 is through. And if one goes, there will likely be a domino effect.

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Belgium Resist EU-Assisted Suicide

The EUrocrats are trying to force Belgium to financially murder itself and go to war with Russia on its own:

In a stunning display of tyrannical overreach, the EU’s unelected overlords are now threatening Belgium’s newly minted Prime Minister Bart De Wever with financial Armageddon simply because he refuses to play along with their insane plot to steal $200 billion in frozen Russian assets.

Yes, you read that right: STEAL. Like common thieves in the night, targeting a sovereign central bank’s holdings parked safely in Belgium’s Euroclear system. This isn’t just policy wonkery; it’s a full-throated assault on national sovereignty, international law, and basic common sense.

And if De Wever doesn’t cave, the EU – egged on by globalist mouthpieces like POLITICO – is ready to ostracize, humiliate, and economically strangle a founding member state.

Sound familiar?

It’s the same playbook the EU used to bully Hungary and Poland into submission.

But this time, it’s backfiring spectacularly, and it could be the spark that finally torches the whole rotten Brussels circus. In a blistering statement that’s gone viral across Europe, De Wever laid it out plain and simple: The countries screaming loudest for this asset grab – think the Baltic states and Poland, scarred by Soviet ghosts – are “psychologically at war” with Russia. Fair enough, they’ve got history.

But Belgium? “We are not at war with Russia,” De Wever thundered. “And we do not wish to be at war with Russia. We must negotiate based on reality, not fantasy.” Boom. Reality check delivered. Stealing from a foreign central bank, he warns, is no different than “robbing an embassy.”

t’s a violation of treaties, a slap in the face to diplomatic norms, and a one-way ticket to the courtroom for every EU hack who touches it. Remember that dusty 1989 bilateral investment treaty between Belgium and the Soviet Union? The Kremlin lawyers are sharpening their pencils already.

If this heist goes down, Belgium could be on the hook for hundreds of billions in reparations – capital plus damages – equaling a staggering 50% of its GDP. That’s not a debt; that’s national suicide.

Even POLITICO, the house organ of the Davos crowd, admits the emperor has no clothes. In a rare moment of clarity (better late than never!), they concede the only realistic fix is for the hawkish EU nations – the ones foaming at the mouth for more Ukraine cash – to pony up their own taxpayer dollars. No more freeloading off little Belgium, the unwitting host of these frozen funds. But oh, the irony burns! POLITICO whines that this would shatter the sacred “principle of solidarity” by forcing some countries to “bear the financial burden alone.”

Hello? That’s exactly what the EU has been strong-arming Belgium to do for months – dive solo into a $200 billion black hole while Berlin and Paris sip champagne!

Belgium should send its police forces in and arrest the entire EU commission. The EU has no power, no military, no nothing at all. Even its “laws” and “principles” are just rhetorical fictions that it heeds or ignores depending on the subject and the situation. Tear down that ersatz Tower of Babel and send all the MEPs back to their home nations.

It’s not just time for the member states of the European Union to leave it. It’s time for them to destroy that fake government and go full Scipio-in-Carthage on it. If this doesn’t prove to you that the unelected nonentities pretending to be the rulers of a nonexistent polity do not and cannot represent the interests of the various European nations at all, then you’re not paying attention.

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The Time is Now

A comical “warning” of war from the current NATO head:

NATO chief Mark Rutte has warned that war with Russia ‘is at our door’ as he urged European allies to prepare for action now or risk facing a conflict on the scale ‘our grandparents and great-grandparents endured’.

Speaking in Berlin on Thursday, Rutte said too many NATO members remained ‘quietly complacent’ about the threat posed by Moscow and insisted Europe must urgently ramp up defence spending and weapons production to deter Vladimir Putin.

‘We are Russia’s next target,’ he said. I fear that too many are quietly complacent. Too many don’t feel the urgency. And too many believe that time is on our side. It is not. The time for action is now.’

The only reason “the time for action is now” is because in five years, the USA isn’t going to be a member of NATO. NATO may or may not still exist as a rudimentary parody of a transnational military force, but regardless, time is not on the side of either NATO or the EU because in five years, both China and Russia are going to be stronger in both economic and military terms, the USA will be trying to survive its self-inflicted demographic shocks and maintaining its preeminence in the Western hemisphere, and the European militaries won’t even be able to control their own populations.

So NATO can lose now or lose later. It makes zero difference. The smartest thing these Clown World puppets could do is surrender preemptively to Russia and stop constantly poking both the Bear and the Dragon. Doing so is in the interest of them and the European nations alike. But they won’t be permitted to do so, which is why we’re going to have to endure this charade for another few years.

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The End of the College Bowl Game

It appears to be upon us, courtesy of the College Football Playoff committee’s bizarre decision to include Alabama and exclude Notre Dame.

On Sunday, the Fighting Irish were snubbed for the College Football Playoff, as the selection committee opted to put Miami in over them. It was a controversial decision that left many scratching their heads, but the Hurricanes did beat Notre Dame head-to-head earlier in the season.

Soon after being left out of the CFP, Notre Dame announced it would not be participating in a bowl this season.

The statement is below:

As a team, we’ve decided to withdraw our name for consideration for a bowl game following the 2025 season.

We appreciate all the support from our families and fans, and we’re hoping to bring the 12th national title to South Bend in 2026

-The 2025 Notre Dame Football Team.

Rather than have one more game and a month of extra practices, the Irish are essentially taking their ball and going home.

I have no problem with the team and its coaches deciding that playing in the Kraft Bleu Cheese Ranch Bowl or whatever it’s called this year isn’t worth the investment of time required. A 10-2 team that is quite obviously one of the best 12 teams in the country expects to be playing for a national title. It deserves to be playing for a national title.

Some observers have pointed out, quite reasonably, that this is a consequence of Notre Dame’s own decision not to join a conference. And it is, and that’s correct. But there is no duty to play in a lesser game that counts for nothing, and this, too, is a consequence of the committee’s actions.

Alabama got their shot last night. They blew it. Why they should be given another shot, over teams like Notre Dame and Vanderbilt, makes no sense to me. I have no problem with James Madison getting in; they did their part and they won their conference. But why the committee thinks anyone wants to see Alabama go to Oklahoma, again, and presumably lose there, again, is beyond me.

Notre Dame lost two games to teams in the playoffs by a combined 4 points. Alabama lost two games to two teams in the playoffs by a combined 23 points, plus to an unranked team by 14 points. As I said yesterday, Alabama should not have been included.

And now, a feeble attempt to protect the non-tradition of conference championship games, the entire bowl tradition is now in jeopardy. Because Notre Dame will not be the only team to decline a bowl; the Big 12 is already having to strongarm two of its teams with playoff aspirations to get them to participate in the bowls to which they’ll be invited.

I don’t have anything against Alabama. I didn’t even follow college football during the Saban years and I’ve never been an SEC guy. But I don’t like seeing other teams getting only one shot at glory when another gets three.

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I Don’t Vike That

It’s truly astonishing how stupid rookie quarterbacks are. Not that their coaches and general managers appear to be much more intelligent.

At this point, I’d have no problem with the Vikings firing both the GM and the head coach tomorrow. It’s not so much that they’re failing, it’s that they are repeatedly and reliably making the most obviously dumb decisions leading to obvious failure.

It’s 4th-and-1 inside the Seattle 10. Down by three. Before the snap, I even said: “don’t get cute, just hand it off, don’t put the rookie under pressure.”

So, naturally, KOC calls a pass because he’s a Smart Boy, Brosmer doesn’t throw the ball right away, but pulls the ball down and decides to try to get away from an onrushing NFL defensive lineman, which works about as well as you’d think. But just to complete the trifecta of retardery, as he’s inevitably going down, Brosmer decides to try flinging the ball with a backhand in the general direction of the end zone.

Whereupon it is promptly intercepted and run back 90 yards for a touchdown. So now, instead of being tied 3-3, or being down 3-0 with Seattle pinned deep in its own end, you’re down 10-0. Congratu-fucking-lations, Smart Boys!

Sweet Saint Lombardi, but these people are criminally stupid. Football is complicated, but it is not that hard! I swear, the combination of analytics and Smart Boys trying to be clever is leading to some of the dumbest possible decisions that I’ve ever seen in five decades of watching football.

The Vikings fans are pretty near unanimous on this one. This comment from the Daily Norseman is one of the more calm and measured responses.

Stupid fucking coach throwing the ball on 4th and 1 with a QB who doesn’t belong on a NFL roster. He just can’t help himself. Worst playcaller in the league.

UPDATE: 26-0 was the final score.

This wasn’t the worst loss in Vikings history, but it might be the most embarrassing. The worst part was the way Kwasi, everyone presumes, leaked stories to Adam Schefter of ESPN about how Max Brosmer was a secret weapon, that he was another Brock Purdy, and that some in the Vikings front office actually liked him better than McCarthy.

He completed twice as many passes to the Seattle defense as he did to Justin Jefferson, and threw one more touchdown to the Seahawks than he did to the Vikings. Even Christian Ponder never looked this bad, or this unready.

At this point, Minnesotans are rapidly approaching the point with JJ that they once reached with KG. Go and chase a ring somewhere else with our blessing. You’ve proven your loyalty, and we like you too much to insist that you stay here against your own best interests.

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The Romans Didn’t Learn

Spacebunny and I were watching a English documentary on the sack of Rome in 410 AD by Alaric and the Goths. The lesson, apparently, is that the sack of Rome was caused by the following:

  • Extreme income inequality
  • Roman distrust of Stilicho due solely to his half-Roman background.
  • A failure to be nice enough to the migrant refugees

So really, you know, it was the Romans own fault that the people of Rome were massacred, the women were taken away for sex slavery, and their civic and private treasures were looted for three straight days.

Sadly, it appears that the Romans still aren’t being nice enough to the migrant refugees 1,615 years later, as one engaged young couple recently discovered.

A man was held down and forced to watch as migrants who smashed into his car raped his 18-year-old fiancée in Italy, according to police in Rome. The couple, said to have been naked prior to the incident, had parked in a quiet corner of Tor Tre Teste, a park in the eastern part of the capital, minutes before they were surrounded by the group who attacked their vehicle.

Police said the attackers broke the window and first pulled the man, 24, from the car before forcing the woman out as she tried to cover herself with an item of clothing.

The man told cops he was restrained by two of the attackers as his fiancée was dragged a short distance away. As she was sexually assaulted, he screamed for help, begged them to stop and even threatened revenge, but was unable to break free.

After the attack, all three perpetrators fled the scene. The couple, both Italian, then contracted police and filed a report. According to the authorities, the couple were terrified and confused. Cops also added that it was possible that there were up to five attackers involved.

Officers have since arrested three Moroccan men on charges of gang rape and robbery.

This is what happens when you don’t let the poor refugees die at the hands of the Huns. This is what happens when you don’t sink the damn ships. Sixteen centuries have passed and still Man has learned absolutely nothing about the fundamental purpose of walls, borders, and oceans, which is to keep the foreigners out, no matter how dire their plight or desperate their sob stories.

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