Correcting Bill Barnwell

The perspicacious Bill Barnwell has worked out the QB Championship Belt dating back to Johnny Unitas in 1959.  It’s a great article, but I have to take serious exception to his choice to award 1976 to Ken Stabler over Fran Tarkenton.

Ken Stabler, Oakland Raiders

Reign: 1974
Stabler had been impressive taking over for Lamonica during the 1973
season, earning a Pro Bowl berth, but he was just a downfield force of
nature during the following season. He threw a league-best 26 touchdowns
while leading the Raiders to a 12-2 record, winning both first-team
All-Pro and MVP honors. He would have a dismal 1975 season, though,
throwing more interceptions (24) than touchdowns (16). That opened up a
spot for …

Fran Tarkenton, Minnesota Vikings

Reign: 1975
This is very reminiscent of the Tittle run from the late ’60s, when a
veteran player who was always very good saw everything coalesce into a
great stretch toward the very end of his career. Tarkenton won his first
MVP award and made his first All-Pro team this year at the age of 35.
He would be pretty good in 1976 before throwing a combined 35 touchdowns
over the final two seasons of his career.

Ken Stabler, Raiders

Reign: 1976-77
The perch once again belonged to Stabler, who completed an incredible
(for the time) 66.7 percent of his passes in 1976 while averaging 9.3
yards per attempt. Adjusting for the era, it’s one of the best seasons
in NFL history for a quarterback. The Raiders would win the Super Bowl
in 1976. Stabler was merely very good in 1977, but there was no superior
candidate to take the title away until 1978.

 Very well, let’s compare the 1976 seasons of Fran Tarkenton and Ken Stabler.

13     10-2-1     255     412     61.9     2961     17     8         Tarkenton
12     11-1-0     194     291     66.7     2737     27     17       Stabler

Now, remember, Tarkenton is already holding the belt at this point and you’ve got to KO the champ to take the belt. Stabler’s performance, while excellent in terms of his completion percentage and number of touchdowns thrown, simply isn’t enough to justify taking it away from the Viking quarterback.  Stabler played in one less game, threw more than 200 fewer yards, threw 30 percent fewer passes, threw more than twice as many interceptions, and had a TD/INT ratio of 1.6 compared to Tarkenton’s 2.1.  Which quarterback would you rather have had behind center?

In 1976, the Vikings scored 305 points.  The Raiders scored 351.  So Tarkenton was still leading the offense into the end zone, he just wasn’t necessarily throwing the ball in there for the final scores.  Both QBs scored one rushing touchdown, but Stabler lost four fumbles while Tarkenton lost two.  That means that Stabler turned the ball over 21 times compared to 10 times for Tarkenton, lowering Stabler’s TD/turnover ratio to 1.3.  This is hardly indicative of the best QB in the game, and it doesn’t merit taking the QB belt away from the Georgia Peach in what was more than a “pretty good” 1976 season.

The big difference I see is that Oakland had a better running game in 1976, averaging 4.1 yards per carry compared to 3.7 for the Vikings.  Stabler didn’t even throw for 6 of Oakland’s 33 touchdown passes, while despite their inferior running game, the Vikings scored more touchdowns on the ground, 18 to 14.  So, that tells us that Oakland preferred to throw in the red zone rather than anything about Stabler being a better passer.

If the Raiders don’t crush the Vikings in the Super Bowl that year, I don’t see any way that Barnwell credibly anoints Stabler the superior quarterback in 1976.  And even with the benefit of the Super Bowl victory, I think it is clear that Stabler’s performance that season was less significant and less remarkable than Tarkenton’s, especially when one takes Tarkenton’s advanced age and reduced mobility into account. So, I hope you will join me in emailing Mr. Barnwell to request that he rectify this historical injustice.


Mailvox: what martial art

The Baseball Savant has been bulking up:

I remember asking you this
awhile back but I’ve went through some physical changes. I’m going to
start to really try and master a martial art. I remember talking about
brazilian jiu-jitsu because I thought at 5’10 it might be better to
ground fight given my lack of height but I think I remember you saying
something about akido because of my strength at potentially being a
striker. I think when I e-mailed you I was around 200lbs but now I’m 245lbs and have been doing some lifting. My best lifts are:

BENCH: I can do 225lbs for 49reps and my last max was 430 although it might be higher.
SQUAT: 550lbs
MILITARY: I do bells for this and my gym only goes up to 135lbs but I can get reps (6-8) with these

DEADLIFT: 600lbs for one

What is your recommendation on this? Is it still strike-oriented?

Okay, that’s ridiculous.  That’s 3x more reps than I can do at 225, or rather, than I could do before I dinged my shoulder.  Anyhow, with that sort of power at his disposal, BS probably doesn’t need to do much in the way of strike-oriented training.  Strike-training allows one to deliver more power through speed and technique, but when one already has power in truckloads, it’s not necessary.

However, all the power in the world doesn’t do much good when one doesn’t have the reflexes, moves, and combinations that come from training.  So, I would look at something in the grappling range that still uses strikes, in other words, aikido rather than judo.  But some strike-oriented sparring is still a good idea. Ender does judo and I’ve noticed that while he and his fellow judoka have an enhanced ability to defend themselves, it hasn’t given them the heightened sense of alertness or the hair-trigger fighting reflexes one is accustomed to seeing in a well-trained strike-oriented fighter.

Aikido may do so; I don’t know.  But either way, I would encourage BS to look for an aikido school that utilizes multi-discipline sparring.  At the end of the day, there is simply no substitute for getting hit.


Admitting the hate

I have to confess, there is one group of people for whom I do harbor a pure and unmitigated hate. I mean, I wouldn’t necessarily want to live next to the mentally unstable or have dinner at a cannibal’s house, and while the only pagan religious ceremony I’ve attended was disappointingly tame, I am a little too well-read in history to be entirely at my ease among pagans.  One always finds oneself on edge against the possibility that they will castrate themselves without warning and cast their liberated testicles at your feet.

But I don’t mind any of them per se.  What I hate is golf spectators.  Peter King, though shaky on many subjects sporting and political, is surprisingly sound on the monsters:

Not a big golf watcher, truth be told. But I watched some over the
break, and I really need to figure one thing out: What is it with
screaming “GET IN THE HOOOOOLLLLE!!!!!” after every tee shot? It was
cute when Bill Murray did it, dweebs. It’s dweebish when you do it on
every tee shot. 

Dweebish?  The term hardly does them justice. When we lived in Ponte Vedra, we were about a decent tee drive from Sawgrass.  Although we were of the Church of Tennis – you have to pick one there when you arrive, Golf or Tennis, it’s the law – we did attend The Players Championship with a friend who worked for the PGA Tour.  It wasn’t a bad way to spend an afternoon, strolling around the course with a drink in your hand, even if you have zero interest in golf. 

But I have never seen a more perfectly annoying group of dorks in my life.  Over the course of the tournament, I gradually went from mild bemusement to moderate annoyance to full blown hatred for them.  As near as I could tell, they count coup by being the first to announce that the ball is going to go into the hole.  But, (and this is the challenge), it is deemed shameful to yell that the ball is going to go in if it does not, in fact, go into the hole.  I don’t know what the penalty is, but apparently it is severe.

You understand the dilemma.  If one waits until the ball is obviously going to go in the hole, someone else will beat one to it.  If one jumps the gun, one will look like an ass. Or, rather, even more of an ass than one already does, being the sort of gentleman who follows a grown man around as if he was the mama duck and one was one of her ducklings.

I suspect I may have witnessed the birth of the phenomenon Peter King describes with such fitting distaste.  One well-lubricated gentleman was loudly pondering the conundrum of when to announce the imminent falling of the ball into the hole as John Daley was preparing to make an approach shot  towards the green where we were standing when a brilliant thought struck him.

“I know, I know, I know,” he told his friend excitedly. “Once the ball gets onto the green, I’m going to yell, ‘get in the hole, Big John’!”

He was roundly congratulated for the perspicacity of his brainstorm, leading me to do some pondering of my own concerning the likelihood that the local home for differently abled adults had been given free tickets to the tournament.  I rejected that on the grounds that the Daley enthusiasts were sporting both Florida Casual and expensive watches, and contented myself with watching to see how the grand experiment would proceed.

The ball had no sooner bounced on the green when the innovator shouted, as promised, “Get in the hole, Big John!” He was clearly the first to raise his voice, as it was at least two seconds before a second shout was heard, declaring, with some degree of certainty, that the ball was indeed on a trajectory that would cause it to fall into the hole.  The ball did go into the hole, to general approval, and the gentleman who had been the first to raise his voice was enthusiastically congratulated by his friends, with considerable high-fiving and back-pounding.

I did not see the man who was robbed of his boldly declarative statement by this cunning maneuver, but I have no doubt that he and his friends stood in slack-jawed awe, wondering how they had been so cleverly bested.  Later that day, I heard the call resound from hole after hole.  “Get in the hole, Tiger!” “Get in the hole, Lefty!” “Get in the hole, Big John!”

Apparently, over time, they have dropped the name, seeing as how everyone understands to whom the ball belongs. Now, you can say that their pastime is harmless.  I won’t disagree. You can assert that they aren’t hurting anyone. I can’t argue with that. You can quite reasonably claim that it isn’t anyone’s business but theirs how and when they cheer. I will not dispute that.

And yet, my loathing for them still burns every bit as pure and as hot as it did on that first sunny Florida afternoon.


Soccer: the real man’s game

So much for the notion of soccer being a game for wimps, or for anyone with a weak stomach. And some people wonder why I’m a bit skeptical about the prospects for USA 3.0:

A soccer referee in Brazil was gruesomely quartered and beheaded after he fatally stabbed a player on the field during a match. The match took place June 30 at Pius XII stadium in Maranhao, northeastern Brazil.

According to Correio24horas, 30-year-old player Josenir dos Santos Abreu approached the 20-year-old referee, Octavio da Silva Catanhede Jordan, to argue a call.The two couldn’t come to terms so Catanhede Jordan told the player to leave the field.  Santos Abreu refused and the argument turned heated when the referee allegedly pulled out a pocket knife and stabbed Santos Abreu multiple times.

The player died en route to the hospital. Fans outraged by the stabbing – believed to be the player’s friends and family – stormed the pitch and cornered Catanhede Jordan. The mob showed no mercy as they quartered and decapitated the referee and then placed his head on a stake.

Now, I’m not going to claim that I’ve never felt that a referee deserved to be flogged, or in a few cases, institutionalized, but I do think decapitation is, perhaps, a little excessive.  On the other hand, it must be admitted that multiple stabbings are not the most reasonable substitute for a red card.


Intelligence and reaction times

I tend to share Steve Sailer’s doubts about Michael Woodley et al’s paper on how reaction times are slower now than when Galton first measured them:

“It was an era of glorious scientific discovery. And the reason for the Victorians unprecedented success is simple – they were ‘substantially cleverer’ than us.  Researchers compared reaction times – a reliable indicator of general
intelligence – since the late 1800s to the present day and found our
fleetness of mind is diminishing. They claim our slowing reflexes suggest we are less smart than our
ancestors, with a loss of 1.23 IQ points per decade or 14 IQ points
since Victorian times. While an average man in 1889 had a reaction time of 183 milliseconds, this has slowed to 253ms in 2004. They found the same case with women, whose speed deteriorated from 188 to 261ms in the same period.” 

Back in the 1990s, I read up on Arthur Jensen’s research on his reaction
time experiments, and … I don’t know. It seemed very, very
complicated, even more complicated than reading Jensen on IQ.

How about me? I’m a reasonably intelligent person. Do I have good reaction times? In general, I’d say no.

I’m more than a bit dubious about this correlation between reaction time and intelligence myself.  While on the one hand, I am highly intelligent and have excellent reaction times – I’m a former NCAA D1 100m sprinter and can still outsprint most men 15 years younger –  on the other, I remember the sprinters against whom I ran.  Let’s just say many of them were not likely to be confused with rocket scientists.

Then again, I have no problem believing that the Victorian English were considerably brighter, on average, than the modern American.  A simple comparison of popular novels, then and now, should suffice to prove that.


Adios ProFootballTalk

I used to like ProFootballTalk when it was actually about what happened around the NFL.  But I found myself reading it less and less often last season even though I was still actively following the NFL.  Now that it’s an advocacy site primarily concerned with what Tim Tebow SHOULD do, and what the NFL SHOULD do, and what team owners SHOULD do I can’t even stand reading it anymore.  It’s just one stupid left-liberal crusade after another; the final straw for me was the campaign to save Chris Kluwe’s job because he supports homogamy.  Followed, a few days later, by the continued campaign to change the Redskins name; a name that troubles no one, including the overwhelming number of American Indians, outside the media.

Now, I actually liked Kluwe.  But he was bad last year.  Very bad.  When the Vikings needed a big kick, he shanked it.  When they needed him to drop it inside the five, he booted it out of the end zone.  And the hypocrisy PFT showed in distinguishing how they covered Kluwe’s comments about homosexuals (isn’t it wonderful that he speaks out on such an important issue) compared to the way they covered Chris Culliver’s (the NFL should discipline him and the 49ers should consider cutting him), was simply outrageous.

So, besides Football Outsiders, what is the best NFL site to replace it on the sidebar?


The end of Tebow Time II

The Jets finally release Tim Tebow:

The Jets have released Tebow, the New York Post first reported and the team has officially announced. He will now pass through waivers, meaning every NFL team will have a chance to claim him.

Tebow was widely expected to be on the way out for months, and the only surprise is that the Jets waited until now to do it. The arrival of rookie quarterback Geno Smith in the second round of the NFL draft may have been what it took for the Jets to decide that there was simply no room for Tebow on the roster anymore.

Now the question is whether there’s any room for Tebow anywhere in the NFL.

I think he’s got to go to Canada to prove he can play quarterback. The entire New York interlude was a disaster for everyone involved, although it’s hardly fair to blame the self-implosion of Mark Sanchez on Tebow.

Despite his success in Denver, I just don’t see how he can be successful in the modern NFL. Tebow is a throwback to a time when accuracy wasn’t necessary to have success in the league. He’s basically a bigger, slower, less accurate Michael Vick, which isn’t exactly the ideal quarterback.

On the other hand, he might actually make some sense for the Vikings, since he throws a better deep ball than Christian Ponder and is perfectly capable of handing off the ball to AD.


NFL draft: Day One

Possibly the most boring draft ever, in terms of the glamor positions, but still of interest to real NFL fans. I’m pleased with the Vikings picks; three first-round talents at DT, CB, and WR fill the three positions we most needed in the absence of a real quarterback being available. 2013 would appear to be a rebuilding season for the Vikes, barring some serious and unanticipated improvement on the part of Christian Ponder.
Anyhow, this would be your open NFL Draft discussion. Not much else worth mentioning, except for the general lack of interest shown in Geno Smith and Manti Te’o.


RIP Pat Summerall

One of the greats of NFL broadcasting has died at 82. Fortunately for those of us who enjoyed his voice, he lives on in Maddens, still calling games in that calm, unforgettable baritone.  I remember playing Madden 2001 after he’d retired, and shaking my head, being reminded how even in a video game, Pat Summerall was a better play-by-play man than anyone in the succeeding generation of commentators.


Beating the bete noire

When we read blogs, especially for a long period of time, we tend to assume that we know the writer pretty well and that we have a pretty good grasp of who they are, what drives them, and what is important to them.  And that is at least partially true, but it’s important to keep in mind that one is only seeing what the writer permits them to see.

Perhaps that is an exaggerated, idealized picture of what he truly is, or perhaps it is merely one particular facet of a multi-faceted life.  In either case, the picture we have is at the very least distorted, if not entirely false.

For example, some people have concluded from my regular posts on McRapey that I must care a great deal about the mutual antipathy that has flared up between us. He’s running his little charity operation and has taken full ownership of his Gamma Rabbit persona, I’ve recorded a song with the Pink Rabbit Posse and held up my end of the bargain – perhaps whoever is tracking the donation count for Mr. Scalzi could let me know how many more mentions I have to go before we reach the magic 200 mark that denotes the limits of his charity.  But this is actually little more than one of those blog things that flares up from time to time, runs its course, and so on.  Just as no one accuses me of being obsessed with Me So Michelle anymore, in another nine years nearly everyone will find it hard to recall the name of that science fiction writer with the rabbit rape thing.

Anyhow, the point is that while I have had a bete noire for the last 12 months, it hasn’t been McRapey.  It hasn’t been PZ Myers, or Sam Harris, or anyone else about whom I have written in copious detail.  And yet, I have seen this man when I close my eyes far too many times to count, I repeatedly kick myself for what I did, and what I failed to do on the occasions when I have confronted him, and I replay our various encounters over and over and over again in my mind.

Who is he, this black beast who haunts my nights?  He isn’t a figment of my imagination, he is real, all too real.  He is about 6’2″, late thirties, balding with black hair, a slight paunch, a wide body, and arms that are, at first glance, approximately eight feet long.  He’s strong, but with the thick strength of a manual laborer, not the pumped-up muscles of the weightlifter.

He is the keeper for A Blue, the friendlier of our two main rivals in the soccer league.  I am told he is generally considered to be the best in the league. I don’t know his name. I hate him.

Now, the chances are that he is, like the rest of his team, a very good guy.  They are great sports, they are always amicable, they don’t take cheap shots, and there is a good deal of mutual respect between our two teams.  We are the two-time defending champions while they finished third both years; this year they are in first place and we are struggling in fifth.  Veterans teams are always particularly vulnerable to injuries; I’ve gone from being the fifth option up front to being the number two striker in two years and not as a result of my own merit.

At the end of last season, we had the championship already sewn up, but wanted to close it out on a winning note against them.  The game was tied, 0-0, in the last minute of the game when an attacking defender flicked a header past the defensive line and set me up for a shot inside the area. I broke on the ball and aimed for the upper left corner, but at the last minute, saw the keeper was moving fast to his right, so I tried to change my shot and go upper right.  But my left foot was already moving forward, so the result was that I double-clutched and popped up a weak blooper that he caught without even having to move.  It was worse than pathetic.  It was a grade A choke job.  Everyone told me it was okay.  No one criticized me.  But there were a lot of pained expressions and heads shaking back and forth.  Mine included.

Last fall, we played them at home.  We were losing, 1-0.  Again, in the very last minute of the game, I blew past the defense and broke on a ball passed through by our central midfield.  This time it was on my right. I saw the space the keeper was giving on his left and I didn’t hesitate, I blasted it about chest level just inside the right post.  I knew I’d hit it right.  Only somehow, that damnable keeper dove to his left, extended his gorilla arms, and barely got the tip of a single finger on the ball.  It wasn’t much, but it was just enough to redirect the ball onto the post.  Six inches higher, he can’t reach it. Six inches lower, he doesn’t have a prayer. It doesn’t matter. The whistle blew before we could even take the corner kick.

Two games, two excellent chances, and twice he stoned me.  Twice, I let my team down.  This is the sort of thing that keeps me up at night.

Last night was the first game of the season’s second half.  We were away at their place. We knew going in that we were probably going to lose, as our number one striker and our field general were both on vacation.  But we played them tough, and we even had them worried when my Dutch friend hit the crossbar with a header on a corner kick.  Unfortunately, I blew an easy opportunity by not playing for the rebound because I thought it was going in. 

Although I very badly wanted to score, and the team needed me to score since I was the number one striker by default, I took myself out of the game after the first 20 minutes.  My hamstring was tight, I wasn’t running well, and although I hadn’t lost a single ball, I wasn’t in sync with the midfielders at all.  But without me, our attack faltered and we were coming under continuous pressure, so the coach and I reached the same conclusion at the same time and I went back in with about 20 minutes left in the second half.

That turned the possession game around again, as my runs against their tired defense opened up more space for our midfielders and our defenders started pushing farther up the field.  We started creating some chances, but we just couldn’t finish them.  Then we fell behind 1-0 after their best player beat three of our guys in succession,
hit the crossbar, and their striker was alert enough to follow it in
and clean up the garbage. Right about then, the weather turned brutal, as the wind picked up and a very cold rain that was practically sleet started pouring down on us.  It was the coldest I’ve ever been on a soccer field, and I’ve played on October nights in Minnesota.

Despite the freezing downpour, we kept attacking. It was the only way to stay warm. I blew past their right defender twice, but my first pull-back pass was intercepted and the second time my fellow striker tried to control the ball rather than taking a first-time shot and ended up losing the ball.  Then I tried to flick a header rather than meeting it squarely on a corner – I’m dreadful in the air – and it went wide by about ten feet.

It looked like we were going down to defeat when one of our defenders hit a hard, long pass from about 30 meters away.  Our midfielder slid for it, but missed, and his effort caused the right defender to miss the ball as well.  I ran onto it just inside the box and hit it without thinking, without even looking to see where that damn keeper was.  I could feel it was going in as soon as I hit it; one of my teammates told me afterwards that the keeper didn’t even move.  1-1.  We barely made it back to the circle before the whistle blew.  One shot, one goal. It was the only shot I’d taken all game.

The keeper knows me.  When we shook hands, he said something about how I always wait until the last minute to pester him.  I told him that as far as I was concerned, the score was now 2-1.  He laughed.  It’s on.  It is definitely on. He is winning, but I’m not seeing that blooper or that post anymore.  Now I’m seeing the ball smack soundly into the back of the net. I’m feeling that solid, unmistakable “thunk” as my foot hits it perfectly. Over and over and over again.

That was my seventh goal of the season, and with any luck, I should have my first double-digit scoring season since I played for Nike in my late 20s.  I’m incredibly grateful that I’m still able to play at my advanced age, that I’m still able to contribute to my team, that I’m still able to feel that incredible rush when you put the ball in the net and your teammates come running towards you to celebrate it. But I’m already looking forward to next season, when I’ll get the chance to even the score.  And I’d happily donate a thousand dollars to McRapey’s charities myself if that would somehow buy me a pair of goals to take the lead in that next game.