Tag: science

A Physicist Endorses MITTENS

Your MITTENS Theorem is of course valid, and more precise and detailed than was possible for the physicists in 1966. You have also independently proposed the correct, and only possible alternative to Neo-Darwinism, what you termed IGM in your October 14, 2012 blog post. You should repost this mechanism, together with more discussion. This mechanism has been repeatedly rediscovered since the famous 19th century Harvard biologist Asa Gray first proposed it, correctly identifying God, not intelligent aliens, as the agent. Charles Darwin himself denounced Gray’s version of your theory, which is less precise than your version.
– Dr. Frank Tipler, Professor of Mathematics and Physics, Tulane University

I had no idea what he was talking about until I looked up the post. It turns out that IGM stands for Intelligent Genetic Manipulation, which is a mechanism I developed in response to four points put forth to me by one of the more reasonable Neo-Darwinians.

  1. Let us take as evidentially established the fact that species which existed in the past now exist no longer and are extinct.
  2. Let us take as evidentially established the fact that not all species now extant existed at all times throughout the history of organic life.
  3. Therefore, it must be possible for species which did not exist to come into existence by some mechanism, just as species which do exist can go extinct by any variety of mechanisms.
  4. If it is a fact that new species can come into existence while others go extinct, by what mechanism other than evolution through natural selection are these species proposed to arise, and does that proposed mechanism explain more of the observed evidence than TeNS?

I more or less concurred with the first three points, and in response to the fourth, proposed Intelligent Genetic Manipulation as a mechanism that not only explains more of the observed evidence than TeNS, but unlike TeNS, remains potentially valid because it has not been mathematically ruled out by MITTENS. Please keep in mind that this was written 12 years ago, long before some of the significant advances in the various genome projects which are far more consistent with intelligent genetic manipulation than with the Theorum of Evolution by (probably) Natural Selection, Biased Mutation, Genetic Drift, and Gene Flow, or TE(p)NSBMGDaGF, as it is properly identified in its full epicycular form.

Intelligent Genetic Manipulation is the mechanism that I propose. And yes, I believe that explains more of the observed evidence than TENS, since IGM is a scientific proposition, a readily observed action, and a successful predictive model, whereas TENS is a philosophical proposition, an unobserved process, and an unsuccessful predictive model.

Now, this does not provide any basis for assuming the existence of a Creator God, or even declaring that TENS did not actually take place. The logical fact of the matter is that even if TENS can be conclusively demonstrated to have taken place in various species, which has not happened despite more than 150 years of trying, that doesn’t necessarily mean the process was sufficient to produce Man. If one contemplates the biological differences between ape and man, the vast leap in cognitive capacity taking place in a relatively small sum of generational cycles from the proposed common ancestor in comparison with the timelines supposedly required for other, less complicated evolutionary changes, the logic suggests – though it does not prove – that some degree of purposeful genetic manipulation has likely taken place at various points in the origin of the species and the development of homo sapiens sapiens.

I’m not talking about Intelligent Design, but rather intelligent editing. And the interesting thing is that IGM should be an increasingly falsifiable concept as genetic science continues to improve. Only recently have we learned that junk DNA serves a purpose; even though we have sequenced various genomes, we haven’t yet understood how the code works or fully comprehended the various ways it can be manipulated. As our understanding grows, we should be able to develop an ability to recognize patterns that indicate purposeful alterations in the code have been made.

An Alternative Mechanism, 12 October 2012

Twelve years later, it is now clear that IGM is superior to the Theorum of Evolution by (probably) Natural Selection, Biased Mutation, Genetic Drift, and Gene Flow in every single way. It is not only not mathematically impossible, we know for certain it is possible because we already engage in purposeful genetic manipulation ourselves. IGM is not a philosophical tautology, it is an eminently falsifiable scientific hypothesis, as we are already developing mechanisms that provide the retroactive ability to see that a gene has been edited, and IGM already provides a better, more credible explanation for genetic anomalies such as human chromosome 2 (HSA2) that scientists presently imagine to have been caused by a single freak mutation that happened to fuse two primate chromosomes at the precise moment of a population bottleneck 740,000 years ago, a mutation that was so amazingly beneficial that it somehow managed to fixate through the entire human species at a rate much faster than Genghis Khan’s genetic lineage has been observed to propagate.

And if IGM does not address the question of the origin of life, well, neither does TE(p)NSBMGDaGF. And unlike TE(p)NSBMGDaGF, it even “predicts” the utility and significance of what was once erroneously labled “junk DNA” whereas all that TE(p)NSBMGDaGF ever “predicted” was the possibility of the existence of a rodent that had already been known to Man for centuries.

Biologists should not be the least bit reluctant to leave the useless theories of Neo-Darwinism behind or to abandon evolution by natural selection. To the contrary, we now have a growing body of scientific evidence that humanity is not, and never was, alone in the universe. And whoever, or whatever, the parties responsible may be, we know that they have at least a modicum of what appears to be beneficial interest in us, or they would not have manipulated our genes to enhance our cognition and self-awareness as they appear to have done.

On a philosophical note, I very much doubt it is a question of God or aliens. Because the answer, in all probability, will somehow involve both. We know that God works through men, even through the most unlikely of men. Logic therefore suggests that if aliens of any kind exist, God will work through them too.

“Yeah, I know, make sure it lays eggs, on it.”

DISCUSS ON SG

How Genghis Khan’s MITTENS Strangled Darwin

One of the reasons I occasionally find it profitable to engage with anklebiters is that they help me get a handle on what I need to do to bridge the communication gap with normal individuals. No offense, but I often can’t tell the difference between the average midwit and the average retard, or determine precisely where along the logic rollercoaster someone is going to fall off without being provided the assistance of some sort of safety rails keeping them on the track.

So, it was with a bit of chagrin that I realized how, despite my best efforts to make every element of my case for the Mathematical Impossibility of The Theory of Evolution by Natural Selection (MITTENS) easily intelligible, I had made precisely the same mistake that the symposium physicists did in 1966. Which is to say, I was requiring my critics to possess an ability to make a correct logical leap that is observably beyond the ability of most people, and had thereby rendered what should have been an incontrovertible argument theoretically contestable in the eyes of the average individual. MPAI strikes again.

Fortunately, a Darwinian true believer who lacked the necessary ability chose to inform me on Gab that the math in MITTENS was both “bad” and “wrong” without bothering to correct it.

I’m no biologist, and I do enjoy math. It pains me to see bad math, which is the only reason I keep on poking at this. Ultimately, it’s not even a math error, the error is in the priors. Asserting that 1600 fixations per generation is the highest possible fixation rate is the root.

First, it’s worth pointing out that setting a ceiling of 1600 fixations per generation would not be an error, and in fact is considerably higher than the highest possible fixation rate ever imagined by anyone. Second, I responded to him by pointing out that since he had somehow managed to reverse the relationship between generations and fixations, and was therefore asserting that it was reasonable to imagine a blistering and hitherto-unseen super-parallel rate of 1,600 fixations per generation, it was unlikely that he had truly been able to detect a mathematical error in what, after all, is some very basic math.

It will probably not surprise you to know that this obvious error neither stopped him nor slowed him down in the slightest:

If I said 1600 per generation, that was a typo. I am flawed, I do make the occasional mistake. That’s the rate for bacteria. Using it for chimps requires more than simply asserting it is so. I will concede that the math itself is correct. Vox is capable of multiplication. The analysis is flawed because the input is incorrect.

It is like taking the top speed of a snail (Best I could find is 0.2 miles per hour for the giant African land snail) and using that to claim we never went to the moon. 226000 miles / 0.2 miles per hour = 1,130,000 hours = 129 years. It has been less than 129 years since the Apollo program, so we can’t have made it there yet.

If you use the wrong starting values, the math leads you astray.

I responded by observing that now he had reversed the appropriate analogy as well. My argument for the mathematical impossibility of the theory of evolution by natural selection is much more akin to pointing out that since the maximum speed of a Moon rocket is the 24,791 mph recorded by Apollo 10, and since it took three days, three hours and 49 minutes for Apollo 11 to reach the Moon, any claim that a Giant African Land Snail travelling at 0.2 mph had flown to the Moon under its own power in less than 24 hours must be false.

This second correction somehow did not dissuade him from continuing to claim that while my math was admittedly correct, the mathematical argument it supported was still “weak”.

The rate of mutation is typically cited per individual per generation. The rate of fixation is of course a population-wide measure. The experiment in the 2009 Nature paper measured a fixation rate of 1 fixation per 1600 generations. The bacteria in the experiment have a rate of mutation of about 1/1000 per generation per individual.

The rate of fixation of neutral mutations is proportional to the rate of mutation (and with certain simplifying assumptions, is equal to the rate of mutation per individual per generation).

The rate of mutation per generation per individual in chimps and humans is on the rough order of 30, over four orders of magnitude higher than that of the bacteria. The rate of fixation will thus be proportionately higher. Using the correct rate of fixation produces numbers comparable to the ones evolutionary geneticists use in molecular clock calculations.

This is why Vox’s “mathematical” argument is weak – it’s using an invalid prior to come to an incorrect conclusion.

I therefore observed that in his attempted defense of neo-Darwinism, he was asserting that mutations fix four orders of magnitude faster ACROSS THE ENTIRE GLOBALLY-DISTRIBUTED SPECIES in both humans and chimpanzees alike than across a small population of laboratory bacteria, which is total nonsense because the fixation rate in laboratory bacteria in the 2009 study published in NATURE is the fastest ever observed by scientists.

I also pointed out his extrapolation that more mutations occurring in a growing, geographically-distributed, and more genetically complex species necessarily means that species will fixate much more quickly than the simpler species was a logical error. To be more precise, his baseless assertion was absolute and utter nonsense; since chimpanzees and humans are far more widely distributed than bacteria living in a single petri dish, any advantageous mutations making an appearance will tend to fixate much more slowly in their populations than in the bacteria.

In fact, the theory of natural selection even suggests that what is an advantageous mutation in one geographical area might well be a disadvantage elsewhere, thereby preventing its fixation. He was literally appealing to his own imagination rather than math, science, or any observable evidence, and he proved quite willing to continue standing upon that imaginary foundation.

Your math is still wrong. Fixation proceeds in parallel. The rate of fixation is equal to the rate of mutation, and the latter can be measured. (Former’s a touch harder, but some bacterial experiments have done it, and confirm the rate.) The rate of mutation needed for the genetic clock is within a factor of two of what’s observed now.

He was, of course, incorrect, as he was citing Wikipedia or some other Internet source without understanding it. As it happens, according to the scientific papers, the rate of fixation is absolutely not equal to the rate of mutation for a) any non-static population, or, b) any beneficial mutation, which happens to be the only kind of mutation that is relevant to the topic of fixation. Also, my critic apparently did not know that the original average of 1,600 generations per fixation reported in the NATURE study specifically included several mutations fixed in parallel.

However, his stubborn insistence that my argument was insufficiently conclusive made me realize that I had unwittingly gifted him the out to which he was clinging by erroneously expecting him to be able to accept what I considered to be obvious: I was assuming that the fastest mutational fixations ever observed in laboratory bacteria were faster, in generational terms, than any fixation occurring in a more genetically complicated species dwelling in the wild. Just as relying upon probability rendered the physicists’ math-based arguments too difficult for the innumerate biologists of the 1966 symposium to understand and accept, my failure to provide a specific example of natural fixation rates among species with higher mutation rates gave my logic-challenged critic sufficient cover to retreat to an ontological argumentum ad imaginariam.

And while I am aware of no substantive studies on mutational fixation rates in humans, which is understandable given the challenge presented by the time frames involved, there does happen to be the famous case of Genghis Khan, who is popularly supposed to have been the male ancestor for nearly one-quarter of the human race. Upon review, this turned out to be a fairly serious exaggeration of his actual genetic influence, but it proved useful nonetheless. And, better yet, his genetic legacy had already been analyzed in terms of mutational fixation!

The Genetic Legacy of the Mongols: a groundbreaking 2003 historical genetics study.

When sampling DNA from 16 populations across Asia, researchers were surprised to find that nearly one in 12 men on the continent shared an unusual Y-chromosomal lineage – one that they said likely came from Genghis Khan. The genetic line showed that about 8 percent of men in the region of the former Mongol empire, and therefore about one in 200 worldwide, share one single male ancestor.

This rise in frequency, if spread evenly over ∼34 generations, would require an average increase by a factor of ∼1.36 per generation and is thus comparable to the most extreme selective events observed in natural populations, such as the spread of melanic moths in 19th-century England in response to industrial pollution (Edleston 1865).

Note two things before we get to the math. First, based on the 2003 date of publication, the researchers were using a period of 23.44 years per generation, distinct from the 20 years per generation I’ve been using. They also appear to have used a slightly starting date for unknown reasons. But these differences are irrelevant and I only mention them to explain the different base number of generations: 40.85 vs ~34. Second, pay very close attention to this phrase: “is thus comparable to the most extreme selective events observed in natural populations”.

Genghis Khan’s third son, and successor, was born in 1186. It took 817 years, or 40.85 generations of 20 years, for his father’s genes to propagate sufficiently to reach 0.5 percent (the 1 in 200 worldwide figure reported in the study expressed in percentage terms) of a species-wide fixation. At this rate, which is “comparable to the most extreme selective events observed in natural populations”, it would take 8,170 generations (40.85 generations x 200) and 163,400 years to fixate a hypothetical “Genghis Khan gene” across the human population, although just to be clear, there is no evidence that there is any genuine mutational advantage to being descended from the individual who was the greatest warlord in human history as well as one of its more conspicuous collectors of fertile young concubines. This application of sexual selection, however one-sided, rather than natural selection per se, means that 8,170 generations per fixation is almost certainly a very conservative estimate.

This means that the fastest observed rate of practical partial fixation in the natural human population has run at 19.58 percent of the fastest-ever rate of observed fixation in laboratory bacteria. As the logic used to construct MITTENS correctly suggested, the bacteria in the lab have been observed to fixate mutations at a rate at least five times faster than the human population has ever been observed to do.

Since evolution by natural selection has now been reduced to purely ontological arguments, what sort of fitness advantage can you possibly imagine that would be more powerful than the sexual-selection advantage the literally rapacious Khan of Khans himself was historically known to utilize?

I’ll lay out the math in analogical terms that everyone can easily grasp in a future post, but for now, the genetic legacy of Genghis Khan should suffice to address any remaining structural objections to the legitimacy of MITTENS and its conclusive falsification of the Neo-Darwinian synthesis.

UPDATE: You might think I’m exaggerating the stupidity and the innumeracy of the biologists. I’m not. They legitimately do not comprehend the existence of the concept of an “average”, much less have the ability to grasp MITTENS. This is an actual quote from one self-appointed defender of Darwin:

“This so-called math isn’t necessary to evolution since there is no one set speed of evolution or even of mutation.“

DISCUSS ON SG

Forget the Autism

There is substantial statistical evidence suggesting – suggesting, mind you, not proving – that sufficient vaccines can make you trans and gay:

Here are the odds ratio between the fully vaccinated/fully unvaccinated. Odds ratios >2 are traditionally associated with causality:

Sexual orientation: 4.78

Gender identity: 4.81

Gender dysphoria: 5.54

These effects are huge and consistent.

Also, the odds ratios for partially vaccinated are in line with the fully vaccinated: in general, the greater the number of vaccines someone has, the more likely they are to have a trait that differs from traditional norms. So the vaccines themselves are the elephant in the room here and the driver of the response, not environment, upbringing, social pressure, etc.

Now, I already lean pretty heavily anti-vax, which is why refusing the Covid not-vaxx didn’t even rise to the level of having to think about it for one second. But these results should make even the most mindless pro-vax parent think twice about signing up little Bobby or Jenny for the endless series of foreign substances presently being pushed on the parents of young children. Especially in the aftermath of the global vaxx debacle.

At the very least, more genuine scientific research is required, and no amount of fake ethical special pleading about how it is immoral to have an unvaccinated control group will suffice to avoid it.

UPDATE: Additional information on the subject from a doctor who is very concerned about the adverse effects of standard childhood vaccines.

A curious embargo exists on testing vaccines for safety. As a result, the basic trials we would expect to have been done to assess whether the CDC’s vaccine schedule is safe have never been publicly conducted. Moreover, no independent researcher has ever been given access to the large databases that could easily demonstrate if vaccines were indeed “safe” or “effective.”

DISCUSS ON SG

Dunning-Kruger Science

The fundamental problem in dealing with scientists in general and biologists in particular is that they literally do not know how stupid they are. Very, very few, if any, of them are even National Merit-level intelligence, which is to say they are not only sub-geniuses, they are relatively low-level midwits. And this was true of them sixty years ago; imagine how much dumber today’s diversity scientists are, especially given their decidedly-inferior modern educations:

The report of the exchange is fascinating, not just because of the substance of the mathematical challenge, but even more because of the logic of the Darwinist response. For example, the mathematician D.S. Ulam argued that it was highly improbable that the eye could have evolved by the accumulation of small mutations, because the number of mutations would have to be so large and the time available was not nearly long enough for them to appear. Sir Peter Medawar and C.H. Waddington responded that Ulam was doing his science backwards; the fact was that the eye had evolved and therefore the mathematical difficulties must only be apparent. Ernst Mayer observed that Ulam’s calculations were based on assumptions that might be unfounded, and concluded that ‘Somehow or other by adjusting these figures we will come out all right. We are comforted by the fact that evolution has occurred.’

“The Darwinists were trying to be reasonable, but it was as if Ulam had presented equations proving that gravity is too weak a force to prevent us all from floating off into space. Darwinism to them was not a theory open to refutation but a fact to be accounted for, at least until the mathematicians could produce an acceptable alternative. The discussion became particularly heated after a French mathematician named Schützenberger concluded that ‘there is a considerable gap in the neo-Darwinian theory of evolution, and we believe this gap to be of such a nature that it cannot be bridged within the current conception of biology.’ C.H. Waddington thought he saw where this reasoning was headed, and retorted that ‘Your argument is simply that life must have come about by special creation.’ Schützenberger (and anonymous voices from the audience) shouted ‘No!,’ but in fact the mathematicians did not present an alternative.”

Phillip Johnson, Darwin on Trial, 1991

Now, if it’s not immediately apparent how fundamentally retarded this scientific illogic is, imagine that instead of debating the validity of a scientific theory, these gentlemen were in a court of law, and that Waddington was the prosecutor, Schützenberger the defense attorney, and Sir Peter Medawar the judge.

Schützenberger: Your honor, my client could not have committed the attack on the late victim, which the surveillance cameras confirm took place in Philadelphia at 10 PM on April 15th. We have here an airline ticket from Philadelphia to Miami on April 15th that left Philadelphia at 7 PM and landed in Miami at 9 PM, affadavits from fellow passengers and airline stewardesses testifying to my client’s presence on the flight to Miami, and security camera footage from the Miami Hilton at 10 PM, all of which clearly proves my client is not guilty because he was not in Philadelphia at the time the murder took place.

C.H. Waddington: So your argument is simply that the victim was killed for his money!

Schützenberger: No, that’s not my argument. I am not making any argument about the motivations for the murder and I don’t know who was responsible for it. My argument is that my client did not kill the victim. My client could not have killed the victim. It’s not possible for my client to have killed the victim, because the murder took place in Philadelphia at a time when it has been conclusively demonstrated that he was in Miami!

C.H. Waddington: But if the accused didn’t kill the victim, who did? Who is the culprit? What’s the alternative?

Schützenberger: I have no idea. I don’t have an alternative.

C.H. Waddington: Your honor will note that I’ve asked for an alternative theory and the defense refuses to provide one.

Sir Peter: Noted. Is that the best you can do, counselor? Do you have any alternative to the active theory, any alternative at all? I will remind you that the active theory is a consensus that is widely supported by the scientific community, a consensus based on the assumption that your client did, in fact, kill the victim.

Schützenberger: Finding the actual killer is not my job, your honor. I’m a defense attorney, not a detective.

Sir Peter: The counselor will answer the question.

Schützenberger: No, your honor, I do not have an alternative theory.

Sir Peter: Very well. Since no alternative theories have been presented, I have no choice but to pronounce the accused guilty. Bailiff, take him away!

That would be totally absurd, doesn’t it? An absolute parody of justice, truth, and reason. No prosecutor would even attempt to advance such an obviously stupid argument in front of any judge. And yet, that is absolutely, 100-percent confirmed to have been the actual state of what passes for scientific thinking on the subject of evolution for the last sixty years. Don’t ever give scientists even a modicum of intellectual respect on the basis of their profession. Not only have they not earned it, they have repeatedly and reliably demonstrated that their level of philosophical analysis and their ability to discern truth is considerably below that of trial lawyers and public defenders.

Lest you think I exaggerate, consider the attempt of one true Darwinian believer to defend the science on the basis of criticizing my math, which apparently pains him, even though he admits there is no mathematical error.

I’m no biologist, and I do enjoy math. It pains me to see bad math, which is the only reason I keep on poking at this. Ultimately, it’s not even a math error, the error is in the priors. Asserting that 1600 fixations per generation is the highest possible fixation rate is the root.

The reader will, I hope, note that the actual number concerned is not “1600 fixations per generation” but rather “Generations per fixed mutation: 1600”.

BACTERIA
Years: 3,800,000,000
Years per generation: 0.000071347 (37.5 mins per generation)
Generations per fixed mutation: 1600
Years per fixed mutation: 0.114
Maximum fixed mutations: 33,288,000,916

Source: Sequencing of 19 whole genomes detected 25 mutations that were fixed in the 40,000 generations of the experiment.
NATURE, 2009

Maximal Mutations, Vox Day, February 7, 2019

I’ll admit that I probably use the description “reprehensibly stupid” too liberally, but this sort of multi-level stupidity really is reprehensible.

When Neo-Darwinians attempt to math.

DISCUSS ON SG

A Bold Beginning

Thanks to one of our international men of mystery, I’m able to bring you the opening remarks from the chairman of the 1966 Philadelphia symposium on the mathematical challenges to Neo-Darwinism that long preceded my own conclusive mathematical disproof of evolution by natural selection, regardless of the Dawkinsian “probably” that has recently been appended to what is now more formally known as the Theorum of Evolution by (probably) Natural Selection, Sexual Selection, Biased Mutation, Genetic Drift, and Gene Flow.

Ladies and gentlemen: I want to make just a few introductory remarks. I think it is the distin­guishing mark of all true biologists as opposed to mere sectarian specialists that they are deeply interested in the mechanism of evolution. As Dr. Kaplan has explained, the immediate cause of this conference is a pretty widespread sense of dissatisfaction about what has come to be thought of as the accepted evolutionary theory in the English-speaking world, the so-called neo-Darwinian Theory. This dissatisfaction has been expressed from three quarters and is not only scientific.

First of all, religious: Where once the complaint was that evolution happened at all, now the complaint generally is that it happens without Divine motivation. Many of you will have read with incredulous horror the kind of pious bunk written by Teilhard de Chardin on this subject, if Professor Schultzenberger will excuse my putting it that way.

Then, there are philosophical or methodological objections to evolutionary theory. They have been very well voiced by Professor Karl Popper — that the current neo-Darwinian Theory has the methodological defect of explaining too much. It is too difficult to imagine or envisage an evolutionary episode which could not be explained by the formulae of neo-Darwinism.

Finally — and these are really, I think, the only objections that should concern us — there are objections made by fellow scien­tists who feel that, in the current theory, something is missing, and we look forward to hearing their formulation of what, precisely, is missing. These objections to current neo-Darwinian theory are very widely held among biologists generally; and we must on no account, I think, make light of them. The very fact that we having this conference is evidence that we are not making light of them.

Sir Peter Medawar, National Institute for Medical Research, 24 April 1966

It’s rather remarkable that within ten years of these professional biologists publicly declaring that they must, no on account, make light of the mathematical objections to their pet theory, my high school biology teacher was telling me that the science was settled and no intelligent, educated person would even consider doubting the sacred Neo-Darwinian dogma.

How things change! Thanks to developments in genetic science, we now have conclusive mathematical evidence of the absolute impossibility of both Darwinian and Neo-Darwinian evolutions. The hoary old dragon of Darwin has been slain, once and for all. It may not have stopped twitching yet, and the faithful are still hoping against hope for a revisionist third coming, but any impartial and sufficiently numerate observer will admit that it is clearly pining for the fjords.

DISCUSS ON SG

Every Critique is Correct

There have been numerous mathematical challenges to the theory of evolution by natural selection. All of them can be safely assumed to be valid.

Sir Ronald Fisher, a world expert on the mathematics of evolution, has shown that the odds of the survival of a single mutation with a survival benefit of 0.1% greater than the rest of the population is 500 to 1 against – because the majority of mutants are eradicated by random effects. In other words, only 1 in 500 mutants with a positive benefit of 0.1% will end up taking over the entire population.

The chance that a specific change to a specific nucleotide will occur during a step is thus 1/600, and the odds that it will also take over the population is 1/500. The total odds are thus 1/600 * 1/500 or 1/300,000. This needs to happen 500 times in a row (the number of steps required to arrive at a new species). We thus need to multiply 1/300,000 by itself 500 times. The odds against this happening are approximately 3.6 x 102738 to 1, or viewed the other way round, the chance of this happening is 2.7 x 10-2739.

Of course, one cannot simply assume that only one mutation is available at every step. How many positive mutations are available? Nobody knows the answer to this. So Spetner turns the question around: for evolution to have a reasonable chance of working, how many positive mutations must be available at each step for the model to deliver a new species?

What constitutes a “reasonable chance”? A chance of one in a thousand could reflect the observation that for every species alive today approximately 1,000 have gone extinct. However, as some species go for a very long time without changing – the well recorded phenomenon of stasis – Spetner chooses a chance of 1 in 1,000,000.

The chance of a single step succeeding must be large – because we need to multiply it by itself 500 times (for the 500 steps) so that it comes out as close to 1/1,000,000 as possible (i.e. the chance of 1 in a million). The smallest number that will do this is 0.9727 as

1 – (1 – 1/300,000 ) 1,080,000 = 0.9727

So if the odds that a specific nucleotide will mutate and take over a population are to be 0.9727 for each step, there must be 1,080,000 potential positive adaptive copying errors for each of the 500 steps to arrive at a 1 in a 1,000,000 chance for the development of a new species.

The thing to keep in mind is that all of them are correct. Literally all of them, because there are a plethora of ways to prove that a thing that cannot be is not possible. The only problem with most of these mathematical arguments is that they are probability-based, which means that all the Darwinian true faithful hear when these vast improbabilities are presented to them is “so, you’re saying there is a chance.”

The advantage of my Impossibility of Mutational Fixation argument is that it a) is easy to understand and mathematically confirm and b) leaves no room whatsoever for epicycles, extensions, and other excuses to avoid abandoning what is observably a conclusively falsified hypothesis. But this takes absolutely nothing away from all the other evolutionary skeptics who have provided correct disproofs of the Neo-Darwinian synthesis both before and since genetic science provided us with the ability to state, with scientific, mathematic, and philosophic certainty, that evolution by natural selection not only never happened, but was never even possible.

DISCUSS ON SG

The Midwit Science

JF Gariepy demonstrates, yet again, that he is literally retarded. It’s not that I have no idea what I’m getting into when I flat-out deny evolution and state, unequivocally, that it is mathematically impossible given the genetic evidence, it’s that he is both innumerate and incapable of grasping the fundamental logical problem that the smarter evolution advocates are now beginning to realize has destroyed their entire field of pseudoscience.

In fairness, he’s not quite as retarded as Curt Doolittle. But then, few people demonstrate the Dunning-Kruger Effect more beautifully than Doolittle does with his relentless Gamma posturing.

You have to be pretty stupid to still cling to any belief in Neo-Darwinian evolution these days. I tried THREE TIMES to explain to JFG what the necessary and unavoidable implication of an average IQ among one subset of a population had for the remainder of the set, and he was still not able to understand it. Which is why he cannot grasp the fact that there is absolutely no way for evolution by natural selection to account for the observed delta of fixated mutations between one species and another.

To all the evolution deniers: you have no idea what you’re getting into when you say “maybe small adaptations but not changes of kind.”

Once you acknowledge adaptations, you acknowledge evolution. If you think a bird’s beak can change over a few generations then you’ll have to explain to me how billions of years of such changes does not lead to vastly different species.

Either you prove to me that the Earth is not billions of years old or I’ll consider you’ve accepted evolution. Even the creationist nuts of the 80s understood that, which is why they had to argue that the Earth was 7000 years old. Darwin understood that too.

Checkmate motherfuckers.

You don’t have to be stupid to still believe in evolution by natural selection in the light of genetic science, but it helps. Darwinian selection survived – barely – Mendelian genetics by virtue of what is now known as the Neo-Darwinian synthesis, but only because Mendelian genetics were insufficiently quantifiable to expose the obvious flaws in the Darwinian logic.

But now they are.

I’ve already pointed out the numbers before, so I’ll try to keep this very simple in the hopes that at least a few midwits might be able to grasp the logic.

  1. There is zero evidence of a mutation being fixated across a population in an amount of time that would permit the transition from one species to another species given the known genetic differences between the two. Zero. Not in the lab, not in the wild, not between one mammal and another mammal, not between one fish and another fish.
  2. Even the range of genetic differences between a single superspecies, such as homo sapiens, are too wide to be accounted for by the fastest-ever mutational fixation rate.
  3. If mutations were being fixated fast enough to fit within the time scales observed, we would be able to observe them fixating in real time as well as within recent archeological time.

For example, the oldest sequenced human DNA is 400,000 years old, which represents 20,000 human generations, or 4.44 percent of the temporal distance from the Chimpanzee-Human Last Common Ancestor. Given the estimated 15 million mutations that separate the CHLCA from modern humans, we would be able to observe 660,000 or so fixed mutations distinguishing that old DNA from all modern humans if the Neo-Darwinian theory of evolution by natural selection were correct.

Watching evolutionists trying to criticize my disproof of evolution is rather like watching a chimpanzee trying to work an abacus. They make a lot of noise, but they never actually manage to work out any of the necessary math.

But we don’t. So, obviously, it isn’t. The numbers don’t add up, the logic doesn’t hold, so theory of evolution by natural selection has been conclusively and comprehensibly falsified. If you still can’t see, accept, and understand that, you’re observably stupid.

They can produce all the epicycles and temporal extensions they want, and it will avail them nothing. They are so far off mathematically, by sufficient orders of magnitude, to render all of their efforts not so much quixotic as perverse.

DISCUSS ON SG

The Seventh Tribe

A writer at Unz attempts to describe what he calls the “seven tribes of intellect” but fails to get either side of the Bell Curve right. And fair warning: I’m going to annoy some of you here by failing to hide how I actually think about these things. But it appears I’ve officially reached the age where I see no point in bothering to veil these things anymore.

Eminent (or Scary Bright) the top 0.01% (1 in 10,000) There would be one such person in our town. The town’s progress might depend on whether they are able to contribute their ideas and see them implemented. More likely, they will leave town and search out other eminent people just for the fun of exchanging ideas. Their vocabularies will be above 40,000 words. They are unlikely to believe in gods or superstitions, and can calculate coincidences. (Dick Feynman used to begin his lectures by saying: “As I parked my car today I noticed that the licence plate of the car in front of me was 79346229. What’s the chance of that?”). They may be seen as unconventional, and can be difficult to understand. In IQ terms they are 155. Call them the Three Sigmas.

When such eminent intellects leave town, they soon learn that they are not that bright. After all, even the United Kingdom has 6,500 of them, and they soon work out which the really bright ones are. So, for really interesting minds, we are looking at those who, in open competition, tested on very hard subjects, can show other scary bright people that they are closer to 1 in a million. In IQ terms this would be 160, but it would be simpler to say that they are well above conventional testing limits. Call them the Four Sigmas.

Think of Bertrand Russell going up to Cambridge University and finding very few intelligent people there, but later observing that every conversation with John Maynard Keynes was exhausting, and noting he always came away feeling defeated. Or consider John Von Neumann, (from Steve Hsu’s very good account) who made fundamental contributions in mathematics, physics, nuclear weapons research, computer architecture, game theory and automata, and also had formidable powers of mental calculation and a photographic memory. Laureate Eugene Wigner who knew Planck, Heisenberg, Paul Dirac, Leo Szilard, Edward Teller, and Albert Einstein ranked von Neumann the highest in intellect, and the aforementioned luminaries did not question this judgement. A little uncharitably, Enrico Fermi said to Herb Anderson, with whom he ran the first ever nuclear reaction: “You know, Herb, how much faster I am in thinking than you are. That is how much faster von Neumann is compared to me”. Laureate Hans Bethe, whom I revere, went so far as to say: “I always thought von Neumann’s brain indicated that he was from another species, an evolution beyond man”.

Now, my literal spatial relations retardery leaves me just short of these proposed general limits. However, both VHIQs and UHIQs tend to immediately recognize each other, which is why I’m accepted as a peer despite my obvious limitations by fellow Eminent intellects like Steve Keen and Martin van Creveld, and why I get along instinctively well with musical prodigies like Paul Sebastien and CCK despite my near-complete absence of musical talent. Light recognizes light.

If you are capable of recognizing the pattern, you will recall that despite there being several VHIQ and UHIQ readers here, you never see them dismissing my conclusions out of hand. If you think about it, you can probably figure out why. A fellow 150-IQ friend once observed that he was frightened to think what my functional IQ is if the spatial relations element was left out of the equation; I figure it would probably work out to around 183 depending upon how bad the spatial relations were and how heavily they were weighted, which strikes me as a reasonable approximation in light of how I always felt our friend, who had a confirmed 175 IQ, was a little on the slow side.

Also, to be clear, I do not believe genius is a quantifiable measurement. Genius can only be measured in terms of genuine accomplishment, not in terms of fame, reputation, awards, or a number. Many, if not most, of the reported “genuises” of intellectual history, such as Darwin, Ricardo, Edison, or Einstein, are nothing more than useful frauds who benefitted from marketing campaigns.

I haven’t gotten my hands on the records yet, but I was part of a Harvard IQ study when I was very young and reportedly tested absurdly high in one particular area, which area I would now assume to have been pattern recognition, or at the very least, something that encompassed pattern recognition. Not to go all grandiose and Miles Mathis on you, but the simple and observable fact is that there are very few minds in history capable of developing two conclusive mathematical disproofs of theories that have survived for nearly 300 years or a predictive model of human behavior such as the socio-sexual hierarchy, never mind all three.

Note that no one has yet managed to put so much as a dent in either the Labor Mobility critique of Comparative Advantage or the Mutation Fixation critique of Evolution by Natural Selection. And while scientistry studiously ignores them, neither history nor reality will.

The account of Fermi’s behavior rings absolutely true, because just as the midwit can see that he is more intelligent than the sub-average individual, UHIQs and VHIQs tend to have a very good idea of where they stand vis-a-vis each other. Fermi wasn’t being arrogant or dismissive of Anderson, he was actually being humble and attempting to communicate to Anderson how superior von Neumann’s mind was because he knew Anderson was not capable of grasping the difference between Fermi and von Neumann.

And the fact that the author is not himself a member of the Eminent community can be seen in his erroneous belief that Scary Bright people “are unlikely to believe in gods”. To the contrary, most of us not only believe in gods in one form or another, but our thoughts on the subject are considerably more esoteric, and exotic, than most of us would ever share in public. The conventional dogmatic models simply do not suffice to explain the available evidence; there is a reason I repeatedly tell you that the world is not only weirder than we believe, it is considerably stranger than most of us are even capable of imagining.

Frankly, I’m dubious that anyone beyond high midwit level can manage to genuinely cling to atheistic materialism any longer in light of the clear evidence of supernatural evil at work everywhere in the world around us. And the idea that “nothing instills dread in a smart person like knowing that they are not the smartest” is an intrinsically midwit proposition; every VHIQ and UHIQ not only knows he is not the smartest, but can usually rattle off a list of people that he knows is smarter than he is, and whom he admires.

DISCUSS ON SG

Diversity is Mediocrity

Item 1: a selection from Cuckservative, published in 2015:

Without question the worst effect caused by 50 years of failure, and the one most likely to have the most severe long-term consequences, is the negative effect immigration has had on the collective national intelligence. Researchers around the world have observed that the nations of the West have been gradually becoming less intelligent; the Danish military measured a 1.5 point decline in the average IQ of its soldiers between 1998 and 2014, while the average British 14-year-old lost two IQ points from 1980 to 2008. The same is true for the USA, where a three-point average IQ gain that took place after the Melting Pot migration ended has been entirely reversed as a result of immigration from lower-IQ nations.

By multiplying the average measured IQs for the four major ethnic groups in the United States with their changing demographic ratios, we can calculate how the demographic changes have affected the national intelligence over time. In 1960, we calculate the national IQ average to have been 100.3. By 2010, the average national IQ had fallen four points, to 96. By 2030, if the current population estimates are correct, it will fall another point, to 95. Lest you think that average national intelligence is irrelevant, note that just that four-point difference is essentially equal to the difference between countries such as Austria, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom, and countries such as Uruguay and Portugal. There is a strong correlation between societal wealth and average national intelligence as measured in IQ.

Even the left-wing British paper, the Guardian, was recently forced to take note of this phenomenon, as it reported that scientists have determined genes influence academic ability across all subjects, and that as much as 60 percent of the observed differences between various population groups can be explained by genetic factors. So, the mass migration of the last 50 years has been materially dysgenic and has literally made Americans stupider on average. It’s not just you, mass entertainment really has been dumbed down in recent decades in order to appeal to what is an even lower common denominator than before.

Item 2: an article in the Daily Mail, 23 April 2024:

America’s fight to save handwriting from extinction as IQs begin to fall for first time ever and teachers warn some 20-year-olds can’t sign checks anymore. Previous studies have revealed that IQ scores have dropped for the first time in a century and indicated that technology could be to blame. Last year, researchers at the University of Oregon and Northwestern reported that IQ scores had dropped because technology shortens attention spans and decreases the need to think deeply.

The dirt is not magic. Being around magic white people doesn’t make Africans or Papua New Guineans any smarter, the so-called Flynn Effect notwithstanding. The USA is no longer British, it is no longer even European, it is now rapidly approaching the human genetic average. So, exceptional results should no longer be expected, and it can be reasonably assumed that as an increasingly diverse and mediocre empire, it will rapidly be surpassed in every way by higher-performance, more genetically-homogenous nations.

One cannot adopt dysgenic and dyscivic policies without experiencing the inevitable consequences.

DISCUSS ON SG

Evolution by Dark Selection

As I predicted more than a decade ago, the Darwinists are now being forced to resort to epicycles, expanded definitions, and imaginary “laws” to get around the observable fact that the combination of genetic science with the available temporal limitations render evolution by (mostly) natural selection completely, utterly, and mathematically impossible.

Regardless of whether the system is living or nonliving, when a novel configuration works well and function improves, evolution occurs.

The authors’ “Law of Increasing Functional Information” states that the system will evolve “if many different configurations of the system undergo selection for one or more functions.”

“An important component of this proposed natural law is the idea of ‘selection for function,'” says Carnegie astrobiologist Dr. Michael L. Wong, first author of the study.

In the case of biology, Darwin equated function primarily with survival—the ability to live long enough to produce fertile offspring.

The new study expands that perspective, noting that at least three kinds of function occur in nature.

The most basic function is stability—stable arrangements of atoms or molecules are selected to continue. Also chosen to persist are dynamic systems with ongoing supplies of energy.

The third and most interesting function is “novelty”—the tendency of evolving systems to explore new configurations that sometimes lead to startling new behaviors or characteristics.

The Neo-Darwinists are now in full retreat and I haven’t even written the book yet. But remember, you read it here first: Evolution by Dark Selection means that Darwin was correct, all change happens for no reason due to purely material causes, evil does not exist, and Jesus Christ never rose from the dead, even if there is still absolutely no possible way to mathematically account for the genetic diversity of any two extant species from their last common ancestor within the temporal limits provided by any and every dating system.

DISCUSS ON SG