Tag: Russia

The Proxy War

Game theoretician Alex Macris shares his perspective on the special military operation in the Ukraine.

In order to maintain hegemony, the United States needs Russia to become a Western satellite before the petrodollar system collapses.

As long as Russia is a pro-Chinese authoritarian state, China can:
1) reliably get food, oil, and gas without needing to worry what the US thinks
2) focus all of its military might on population control (internal) and power projection (vs Taiwan, southeast Asia, and South China Sea) without worrying about its border with Russia
3) develop the Belt & Road initiative into Europe without worrying about Eurasian continental interference

These three factors, in turn, spell doom for the American hegemony. The first factor means that it can detach from the petrodollar, and therefore detach from SWIFT; the second factor means that it can be a one-front power rather than have to be a two-front power like the US, doubling its budget-per-theater; and the third factor means that it can neutralize America’s blue ocean sea power and thalassocracy.

It’s thus no surprise that the US has systematically and methodically worked towards turning the former USSR into a Western client. It has rolled EU and NATO membership eastward. When it has encountered resistance, it has staged color revolutions (twice, in Ukraine’s case). It applies sanctions, propaganda, and soft power. Since 2015 the CIA has been training anti-Russian insurgents.

Since I know this, we can safely assume that Russia knows this, too. Putin knows, for a fact, that his regime is the prime target of the West. Not because they are afraid of Russia, but because they are afraid of China. Controlling Russia is the method to keep China in check.

Moreover, China knows this too. China has Russia’s back. If China is going to unseat America as hegemon, it needs Russian oil, gas, resources, food, and access through its territory. Russia didn’t just get China’s permission to attack Ukraine — it collaborated with it on timing and intelligence.

During the Cold War, the US would not go to war with the Russians directly, but it took every opportunity to go to war with Russia via proxies. What we have now is another such proxy war. The proper lens to understand the Russia-Ukraine War is that it is a proxy war between China and the US.

What makes this a uniquely dangerous situation is that this time the proxy has nukes.

I see it as less a proxy war and more of a nationalist alliance against The Empire That Never Ended. But I completely agree that the conflict is much bigger than Russia vs Ukraine, and I suspect one reason for NATO’s sudden reticence to throw its weight around militarily is that it not only fears the possible consequences of facing Russia’s A-Team and losing Eastern Europe, but that any such direct action would cause China to open a second front against the imperial globalists.

There are, in fact, certain signs that China is preparing for action. While it’s possible that its revived anti-Covid campaign is nothing more than a lingering fear of the virus, in light of the fact that the Chinese authorities have seen Covid disappear in the West, I suspect the campaign is being used as cover for the various preparations now being undertaken for the second stage of what will not be known in the future as the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The relative equanimity with which Russia has endured the all-out economic assault of the globalist institutions, and its obvious anticipation of the unrestricted nature of the assault, tends to suggest that it knows it is holding a very substantial ace in the hole. And that ace would appear to be a second front in Asia.

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Facebook’s Two-Minute Hate

Mark Zuckerberg has decided that hate and calls for violence are acceptable, so long as they’re directed against Jews and the topic relates to Israel’s occupation of Palestine.

Meta has confirmed that hate speech calling for violence is now permissible on Facebook and Instagram — as long as the targets are Jewish and the topic of conversation relates to Israel’s military occupation of Palestine. The revised rules on violence and incitement will apply in certain countries – such as Saudi Arabia and Iran – and will allow violent rhetoric against Jews and IDF soldiers.

“As a result of the Israeli invasion of Palestine, we have temporarily made allowances for forms of political expression that would normally violate our rules like violent speech, such as ‘death to the Jewish invaders.’”

Oh, sorry. Apparently there has been a slight misunderstanding. Correction: Jews and Palestine are off-limits. Please do not hate them or utilize violent rhetoric against them. It’s Russians for whom we must reserve our hate.

It’s getting hard to keep track of who is supposed to be Hitler now.

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Underestimating the Enemy

A Russian military veteran provides his professional take on the Ukrainian operation:

We underestimated the enemy’s power of informational, ideological, psychological resistance, they were waiting for us. Literally on the very first day, with one click of American bloody fingers, they deprived us of the support of the civilian population and those AFU units ready to become neutral. Millions of dollars, thousands of IT guys, global media corporations cut Ukraine off from any objective information, it stank in our country.

And our main losses were in the first three days. Now they will be rapidly reduced. Peacekeeping and humanitarian operations, like the Crimean one— are no longer carried out by the Russian army. The fighters received other orders, got involved, got angry, regrouped, any hopes for active support from the civilian population and those parts of the AFU who had changed their mind were dispelled.

There were few flowers and bread loaves to be seen, the people have been crushed by propaganda and lies, intimidated into insanity by the Nazis. Another important point was missed in the calculations — almost 600 thousand Ukrainians have passed through the ATO zone in the Donbas since 2014, today they have replenished the territorial defense everywhere, many have something to fear. Especially in the wake of fakes about executions without trial by the ATO.

Can you imagine what, during a year of service there, the Nazis stuffed into their heads – gave them the opportunity to shoot at the settlements of “quilted jackets and colorados” with impunity, to mock the civilian population there. So, the calculation for the help of locals and APU was inaccurate, the cancer in Ukrainian society is simply monstrous. But… we will cure it.

If we explain our tactics of the first days… this is a creatively reworked “reconnaissance by combat” of the Great Patriotic War. Only with a deep and rapid penetration into the Nazi-occupied territory. We provoked the activity of the enemy with tactical groups, deliberately drawing out parts of the APU and the National Guard from their locations. With a small number withstanding the terrible counterattacks of tanks and armored vehicles, of a superior in number motorized infantry.

Sometimes it was impossible to suppress the “Grads”, artillery and mortars hidden in residential neighborhoods that were nailing you. Urban areas could not be cleaned methodically in combat formations, causing supporting fire, attack helicopters, sappers, flamethrowers, tanks to carry machine-gun emplacements in houses and social infrastructure facilities.

This is a war unfamiliar to us veterans. Especially when the sky is under your full control, airfields are packed with attack aircraft and bombers, operational and tactical missile systems are in service, there is a lot of heavy artillery. Now it has become clear even to civilians: the correct name for what is happening truly is “a special military operation for denazification.” And the demilitarization of Nezalezhnaya was completed by the end of the third day.

The APU, as a single, manageable and effective structure, has ceased to exist. Today, there are dozens of groups of different numbers isolated from each other, hiding in cities and towns. No centralized supply, no air support, no approach of reinforcements. They are not able to act within the framework of any plans of the Ukrainian General Staff. Just crowds of armed men with orders to stand to the death.

The main groups “North” and “East” were beheaded and deprived of command — these are 22 brigades, which had been entrusted with the honorable duty to drown Donbass in blood at the beginning of March. We beat them to it by a week or two, starting our own special operation. Now 150 thousand people (together with national soldiers) are marinated in “cauldrons”, cut off from each other.

This is a considerably more realistic analysis than the one provided by internationally recognized geopolitical forecaster and strategist on international affairs George Friedman which I reviewed on the Darkstream last night. The key takeaways:

  • We underestimated the enemy’s power. The intensity and the effect of the psychological operations should disturb everyone on both sides. But it shouldn’t actually surprise us in the wake of the Covid psyops. And the Russians clearly understand that the enemy is not Ukrainian.
  • This is a creatively reworked “reconnaissance by combat” of the Great Patriotic War. Hence the advances on multiple fronts seemingly aimed at nowhere combined with the sudden halts that the globalist media interprets as “getting bogged down”. The focus is finding the enemy units and enveloping them, then gradually degrading their ability to fight before forcing mass surrenders.
  • This is a war unfamiliar to us veterans. The Russians bent over backwards to avoid collateral civilian damage. This effort was not rewarded due to the successful propagandization of the Ukrainian people. While Russia is still not targeting civilians, it is no longer accepting the higher risks to its soldiers required to avoid collateral damage.
  • We beat them to it by a week or two, starting our own special operation. This is why Putin ordered the attack when he did, and why the timing came as a surprise even to some of the Russian generals. It’s also how the Russians managed to surround 22 brigades – previously estimated by outsiders to be 10-12 brigades – in the Donbass Pocket.
  • The second stage of the operation. Recognizably, the Syrian scenario. Russia will not go into the cities to eliminate the militant opposition. It will surround the cities, starve them, and wait for their surrender or suppression by the moderate majority. This was the tactic they used successfully in the Second Chechen War.
  • Losses are not just tolerable (from a military statistical point of view) — insignificant. The relentless propaganda about massive Russian losses are pure projection, especially in light of the price that Russia paid during the Great Patriotic War aka WWII. Nor does it even make any sense in light of the fact that Russia has successfully taken an estimated 200,000 km2 in less than two weeks.
  • The final turning point. He predicts the war rapidly comes to an end after Kharkov and Odessa submit. At least, this stage of the larger, unrestricted war.
  • Will the encircled Banderites begin to commit atrocities in their impotent anger? Well, Ukrainians should also carry this cross on their own. From the Russian perspective, the civilians chose their side, both in their acceptance of the illegitimate Maidan regime in 2014 and their rejection of their liberators in 2022. They chose poorly. So the Russians aren’t going to lose any sleep over atrocities committed against people who consider them the enemy by the forces the people did not resist.

It’s all a bit cold-blooded and ruthless, but then, one shouldn’t expect the Russian perspective to have much in common with the irrational, highly-emotional, media-programmed perspective that pervades the WereWest. And it comes with enough predictions that we should soon be able to see if it is a useful model or not. It certainly comports with the visual map of the operation’s progress.

UKRAINE INVASION DAY 13

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Karl Says It’s Over

The Russo-Ukraine War, not Covid:

News: Zelinskyy no longer insists on joining NATO.

The actual news: Russia won.

Now the terms of surrender are under discussion. I’ll make a prediction: They’ll be exactly the same terms Russia offered before, with another few additions, and Ukraine will take them.

(1) No accession to NATO, period, with sufficient protections to prevent it from being revoked or evaded. This likely means a bar on military resupply and rebuilding in Ukraine and perhaps changes to the Ukraine legal structure to forbid it. The West’s word means nothing as we promised this 20+ years ago (no eastward expansion) and we lied, repeatedly.

(2) The two eastern provinces are confirmed as independent demilitarized states and Crimea remains Russian; this is formally adopted by the Ukraine government. Demilitarization is to be enforced, and the Nazi (literal, and yes, there are two units in Ukraine that are best-described as same) will be disbanded. Russia provides security guarantees to the two eastern provinces with the explicit understanding that any further shelling or similar act by Ukraine against them (which has intermittently been going on for eight years) will be met with immediate Russian military retaliation. In other words if Ukraine ****s with those provinces or Crimea the deal is off and the war is back on.

(3) Permanent revocation of permission to place or operate any bioweapon or dual-use facility in the nation. Nuland confirmed in sworn testimony yesterday we violated the UN Charter and in fact what Russia said they found there was not propaganda it was true. Said facilities shall be razed under Russian supervision and no attempt will be made to rebuild them irrespective of who sponsors or operates same.

(4) A permanent ban on enrichment or other nuclear activity beyond that required for civilian power production, with a specific ban on the presence of any nuclear fuel beyond 5% fissile in the nation and an absolute ban on any reactor operation that short-cycles fuel. To be enforced under IAEA surveillance.

(5) Each nation bears its own costs. Nobody owes anyone anything for what’s happened to this point. And whatever Russia now has in its possession in terms of documentation and proof (e.g. the Biden 10% for the big guy, the kickbacks to Zelenskyy, the biolab data they already released, etc.) has no protection. You can bet it will be used when it is most-appropriate in their view too.

That’s it.

We’ll see whether I’m right.

I’m not quite as optimistic, simply because I see the Ukrainian operation as the first stage of a much larger contest between the nationalist and globalist forces. I hope that he is right, because the trends favor the nationalist forces strengthening over time, but as always, we’ll have to simply wait and see. And I really don’t see how Ukraine standing down and acceding to Russia’s original demands will bring an end to the unrestricted warfare that the globalists have begun.

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US Admits Ukraine Biolabs

Just two days ago, US bioweaponry labs in Ukraine were dismissed by the globalist media’s “fact-checkers” as conspiracy theories and Russian propaganda. And now their existence has been publicly admitted by the US government.

Rubio: I only have a minute left let me ask you, does Ukraine have chemical or biological weapons?

Nuland: Ukraine has biological research facilities which, in fact, we are now quite concerned Russian forces may be seeking to gain control of. So we are working with the Ukrainians on how they can prevent any of those research materials from falling into the hands of Russian forces should they approach

Rubio: I’m sure you’re aware that the Russian propaganda groups are already putting out there all kinds of information about how they’ve uncovered a plot by the Ukrainians to release biological weapons in the country, and with NATO’s coordination. If there’s a biological or chemical weapon incident or attack inside of Ukraine is there any doubt in your mind that 100 percent it would be the Russians that would be behind it?

Nuland: There is no doubt in my mind, Senator, and it is classic Russian technique to blame on the other guy what they’re planning to do themselves.

So, the US-based neocons have not only admitted to putting research laboratories for biological weapons in their puppet state of Ukraine, they’re trying to preemptively false flag any use of bioweapons there. China, however, is clearly well-aware of this distributed bioweapons operation in the wake of the Wuhan coronavirus release and is already calling them out about it.

The US has 336 labs in 30 countries under its control, including 26 in Ukraine alone. It should give a full account of its biological military activities at home and abroad and subject itself to multilateral verification.

Once more, we see that the “Russian propaganda” is well-founded in fact. Once more we see that “conspiracy theory” can be reasonably described as “spoiler alerts”. And once more, we see that the US government is in the hands of some of the most evil people on the planet.

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Truth is the First Casualty

Ukraine reports Russia’s losses, but not its own.

12,000 Russian troops have now died fighting in Ukraine, while 300 tanks have been destroyed along with more than 1,000 armoured vehicles, 48 planes, 80 helicopters and three boats.

That’s after 12 days of combat. Let’s compare the enemy-reported losses to the self-reported losses from some famous historical battles:

  • Normandy: 87 days. 20,668 US KIA. 2,000 tanks destroyed.
  • Tarawa: 3 days. 1,009 US KIA.
  • Iwo Jima: 35 days. 6,862 US KIA. 137 tanks destroyed.
  • Battle of the Bulge: 40 days. 19,246 US KIA. 733 tanks destroyed.

So, if the Ukrainians are to be believed, they are killing 3.45x more Russian soldiers per day, in an invasion that is advancing faster than Desert Storm, the Six-Days War, or Operation Barbarossa, than the US military lost in four of its bloodiest battles of World War II.

My estimate of Russian losses after 12 days is 2,850 KIA, 9,250 wounded, and 220 tanks lost.

This is considerably higher than the 1,100 KIA I would have estimated due to the Russians utilizing their second-line troops and refraining from making efficient use of their artillery and air power. But the Russian generals are clearly saving their first-line troops and equipment for a potential future engagement with NATO forces, while taking advantage of the situation to blood and level-up the second-line soldiers. And, to Vladimir Putin’s credit, he has decided to accept a higher rate of Russian military casualties in order to reduce the number of Ukrainian civilian casualties by at least an order of magnitude.

You may wish to note that my first estimate was 250 to 500 KIA at a time when the Ukranians were reporting 9,000 KIA. The Russians subsequently reported 498 KIA for that period. The reason I set the range too low was because at the time I calculated the estimate, I did not know that the Russians were relying upon second-line troops or that they would eschew artillery and air support for the first five days of the operation.

The lesson, as always, is this: the past is prelude.

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Neocons Threaten China

Unless they really do seek to fight and lose a two-front World War III – and I do not dismiss the possibility – the neocons are demonstrating that they are even more geostrategically retarded than we thought they were:

The US has hinted at retaliation against China should it avoid following sanctions imposed on Russia after its attack on Ukraine late last month. Beijing, meanwhile, consistently argued that economic restrictions only exacerbate conflicts.

During Monday’s press briefing, White House spokesperson Jen Psaki was asked if sanctions will push Moscow into deeper ties with Beijing.

“They can’t backfill the impact of these sanctions from China. It’s just not possible,” Psaki argued. “Now, we’ve also seen China abide by the sanctions that have been put in place.”

At the same time, Psaki noted that Beijing abstained when the UN General Assembly voted to condemn Russia’s attack on Ukraine last week. “If they don’t abide by the sanctions, we always have – you know, we clearly have means to take steps, but that’s what we’ve seen to date,” the White House spokesperson said.

China has backed a diplomatic solution to the conflict and has consistently spoken out against economic restrictions. “We are deeply concerned with the ever-increasing unilateral sanctions, which are not a fundamental and effective way to solve the problem,” Zhang Jun, China’s envoy to the UN, said on Monday. “They will have serious humanitarian consequences and spillover effects that will hurt other countries.”

Speaking to reporters the same day, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called Moscow his country’s “most important strategic partner.” The friendship between the two is “ironclad,” he said.

China is not going to abide by the imperial sanctions. China does not kowtow to the Empire That Never Ended, having rejected its blandishments and temptations more than six years ago. To the contrary, it increasingly appears that China is going to choose its side and make its opening move as soon as either a) NATO attacks Russia or b) NATO successfully provokes Russia into providing it with a casus belli.

As if to drive home the point that it will not stand by idly while the US conspires against it, China announced on Friday it was conducting a week-long military exercise in the South China Sea, near the territorial waters of Vietnam. While the scope and scale of the exercise is limited—encompassing a six nautical mile radius—its messaging was clear: China is prepared to use force, if necessary, to defend its disputed territorial claims in the region.

China pushes back against the US in the Pacific, Russia Today, 7 March 2022

Forget Taiwan island. It will reunite with the mainland; that is already a done deal. The question is what happens with a) Australia and New Zealand, b) the Philippines, and c) Japan. I note that we’ve heard virtually nothing about the Philippines since the conflict began and they do not appear on the Russian list of hostile countries. It would not surprise me if the Dutarte government has already chosen to ally with China, which would be a major blow to both the USA and Japan in the Pacific.

Note that Russia is already justified in attacking both Poland and Romania in order to shut down the pipeline of weapons being supplied to Ukraine. That it has not yet done so demonstrates its continued restraint in the face of great and increasing provocations.

Don’t be confused by the relentless globalist propaganda being pushed by the media. There is absolutely no question that in this specific historical situation, it is the NATO forces being utilized as a weapon by the Empire that are the bad guys. It’s not the 1950s, or even the 1980s, anymore.

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Russia Defeated, Glory to Ukraine

Apparently it’s all over now except for Vladimir Putin’s inevitable fall from power and trial at the Hague, if the globalist media is to be believed.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine appears to have ground to a halt with no significant territory captured despite a weekend of heavy fighting, with Kyiv’s men claiming to have taken out dozens of helicopters and recaptured a city this morning – sparking hopes that the unlikeliest of victories may be on the cards.

Putin’s men renewed their bombardments on Mariupol, Chernihiv, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv this morning as his forces also tried to surround Kyiv in preparation for an assault, but have not significantly advanced their frontline since the city of Kherson and nuclear power plant at Zaporizhzhia were captured last week.

Meanwhile the Ukrainian armed forces claimed to have destroyed up to 30 Russian helicopters that had been moved to Chornobaivka airport, near Kherson, overnight and to have retaken the city of Chuhuiv, near Kharkiv, killing two Russian commanders – Lt. Col. Dmitry Safronov, and Lt Col. Denis Glebov – in the process.

Video also emerged which appeared to show Ukrainian defence forces based in Odessa, the country’s largest port, exchanging fire with ships overnight – one of which suffers a hit. Ukraine’s ministry of defence has since claimed the vessel was destroyed.

Ukraine’s military now estimates that 11,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in fighting along with the loss of 1,000 armoured vehicles, 290 tanks, 68 helicopters, 46 planes and dozens of other piece of hardware.

That’s an astonishing number of troops killed in just 11 days; in the 87 days from June 5 to August 31, 1944, the US armed forces lost 20,668 KIA in the Normandy campaign. If the globalist media is to be taken seriously, the Russians are losing soldiers in Ukraine at a rate 4.2x greater than the USA did while storming the beaches at Normandy. The Ukrainians must have some amazingly effective fortifications in place! But there is no reason to doubt these reports, since the top British military officials agree that Russia has already failed and is doomed to defeat.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, former leader of the Royal Navy and now Chief of the Defence Staff, added: ‘I think we’ve seen a Russian invasion that is not going well. ‘I think we’re also seeing remarkable resistance by Ukraine… Russia is suffering, Russia is an isolated power. It is less powerful than it was ten days ago. Some of the lead elements of Russian forces have been decimated by the Ukrainian response. The operation is considered at least a month behind schedule.’

If Russia is already more than a month behind schedule after only 11 days, President Putin clearly has no chance of succeeding in his objectives. He might as well surrender to the brave, sexy victor who is as independent as he is Ukrainian. Z really does stand for victory.

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The USA Wants War

It just doesn’t want to take responsibility for starting it. The idiot neocons in the State Department just keep piling on the provocations:

US Secretary of State Tony Blinken told CBS News on Sunday that Washington has given a “green light” to NATO members to supply Ukraine with fighter jets, and that the US would work to replace any jets sent to Kiev. Blinken spoke after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged US lawmakers to intervene in the ongoing conflict with Russia.

Asked whether NATO members could begin sending planes to Ukraine, Blinken said “that gets a green light.” The US’ top diplomat then said that Washington was already working with Polish officials to “backfill” any aircraft they send to Ukraine – meaning the US would replace every Polish aircraft given to Kiev with an American one.

Supplying a belligerent with military material makes the supplier a co-belligerent. This is so brazen it doesn’t even qualify as a false flag; it’s similar to how the US got itself into WWI by loading up the Lusitania with arms, then decrying the sinking of the “passenger liner” by the Germans.

But let the record show that if there is war between Russia and NATO, it was with the full knowledge and connivance of the Fake Biden administration.

And soon everyone may be able to find out why the Russians haven’t been demonstrating the capabilities of their air force or their air defense systems.

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Zelensky is No Hero

To the contrary, he’s a puppet who represents part of the problem in Ukraine, as US Army Colonel Douglas Macgregor explains to Fox News:

The Russians are causing exceedingly little damage, much less damage than we inflicted when we went into Iraq, in 1991 or again in 2003. Now I think they’re just surrounding the Ukrainian forces and they’re annihilating them. And this is inevitable. Mr. Zelensky is postponing the inevitable in the hopes that we are going to rescue him, and we are not coming. President Biden has made that very clear.

You think the end is in sight?

The end of this phase is still a few days away. The first five days, I think the Russian forces, frankly, were too gentle. They’ve now corrected that. So I would say that in another ten days this should be completely over. But the question is, what is it that Zelensky is going to do? The Russians have made it very clear that what they want is a neutral Ukraine. This could have ended days ago if he accepted that and then they could have adjusted the borders. The eastern part of Ukraine is firmly in Russian hands, but again, the Russians are not just seizing territory, they’re destroying Ukrainian forces, that’s their focus.

Colonel, it sounds like you don’t approve of Zelensky’s stand.

I think Zelensky is a puppet. He’s putting huge numbers of his own population at unnecessary risk, and quite frankly, most of what comes out of Ukraine is debunked as lies within 24-48 hours. The notion of taking and retaking airfields, all of this is nonsense. It hasn’t happened.

You don’t think he’s a hero?

No. No, I do not. I don’t see anything heroic about the man. And I think the most heroic thing he can do right now is come to terms with reality and neutralize Ukraine. This is not a bad thing. A neutral Ukraine would be good for us as well as good for Russia. It would create the buffer that both sides want. But I think he’s being told to hang on and try to drag this out, which is tragic for the people that have to live through this.

Unfortunately for the Ukrainian people, an end to the Russo-Ukrainian conflict is not in the interest of The Empire That Never Ended to which Zelensky answers. So, the war will continue another 10-14 days, until Ukraine’s combat capabilities are completely destroyed. I did find it interesting that the colonel’s estimate of how much longer the active operations would last was so close to my own from last night’s Darkstream.

In related news, Russia warned NATO and other neighboring countries that offering airfields to Ukraine would be a good way to ensure getting bombed and invaded.

Any country offering its air fields to Ukraine for attacks on Russia may be considered as having entered the conflict, a Russia defence ministry spokesman has said. “The use of the airfield networks of these countries to base Ukrainian military aircraft and their subsequent use against the Russian armed forces may be regarded as the involvement of these states in an armed conflict,” Interfax news agency quoted spokesman Igor Konashenkov as saying.

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