Contra economists from both the Democratic and Republican parties, a trade war in 2025 would be a very, very good thing for the US economy:
Former US President Donald Trump has told advisers he wants to impose a 60% tariff on all imports from China if he wins this year’s election, the Washington Post reported on Saturday, citing three unnamed people familiar with the plan. The measure would trigger major disruptions to the US and to economies around the world, which would far exceed the impact of the trade wars initiated by Trump during his first presidential term, economists from both the Democratic and Republican parties told the newspaper.
During his current presidential campaign, Trump has pledged to revoke China’s status as a “most favored nation” for trade. The designation is applied to almost all nations that do business with the US, and the White House can introduce any tariffs on imported goods from countries that do not have it. According to the GOP front-runner, tariffs on foreign goods raise vital revenue for the US budget, and current import levies are among the world’s lowest.
China ranks third in the list of US trading partners, behind Mexico and Canada. In November, Beijing accounted for 11.7% of total US foreign trade.
As I pointed out six years ago on Chinese state television, a trade war is very much to the advantage of the United States economy. The net effect of the Western sanctions regime on the Russian economy only serves to underline my original point: a trade war is, by definition, always beneficial to the trading party that has a negative trade balance. And the USA has a massive trade deficit vis-a-vis China. Unlike a naval war in the Pacific, an air war in the Middle East, or worse, a ground war in Europe, this is one war that the USA literally cannot lose.
The reason the Russian economy didn’t suffer from the trade war the West imposed upon it despite having a trade surplus is because the West is now actually the smaller of the two global markets by a significant margin, both in terms of population and purchasing power parity. What Russia lost in Western trade, it more than gained in trade with the BRICSIA countries. And from the defense manufacturers to fast food chains, Russia’s industries benefited massively from the protection from Western imports that was inadvertently provided by the sanctions regime.
As recent history has demonstrated, the Clown World economists are totally wrong, even by their own Samuelsonian metrics.
ITEM: Rumors are making the rounds in Kiev that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will fire the head of his armed forces, General Valerii Zaluzhny.
ITEM: /pol/ reports that General Zaluzhny was fired by Zelensky.
Apparently there was just too much winning and Zelensky feared Zaluzhny’s popularity that resulted from all of the victories over Russia would allow the general to win the elections that he cancelled. Or something equally retarded.
Today, current Army chief General Sir Patrick Sanders raised the spectre of conscription once again, when he called on the Government to ‘mobilise the nation’ in the event of a wider conflict against Russia amid its war with Ukraine.
I wonder if all those Swedes who were gung ho about Sweden joining NATO realize that their forced military service is a direct consequence of their foolish decision to join the military wing of Clown World. I also wonder how they’re going to square the logical circle about forcing young men to fight in defense of individual freedom and democracy.
Regardless, it appears the young men of the West are going to face a choice. Fight the clowns ruling your country or fight the combined military forces of China and Russia. Based on recent events in Ukraine, the former would appear to be a much better bet.
Because I doubt the generals in Moscow are quaking over the prospect of sending their battle-hardened veterans into a war against a collection of scared and unwilling European soyboys who weren’t even capable of resisting the vaxx.
Belgium will transfer €611 million (58.3 billion rubles) to Ukraine from income received from interest on frozen Russian assets. The information was confirmed by the head of the Belgian Ministry of Defense, Ludivine Dedonder (pictured), Belga News Agency reports. The total amount of frozen Russian assets in the EU is about €180 billion (17 trillion rubles), most of them are located in Belgium, the agency clarified.
No doubt the EU will try to hide behind the fact that they aren’t seizing the frozen capital, only the interest on the capital. This will not fool the Russians, and it’s safe to anticipate some sort of tit-for-tat will soon take place, if not escalation.
The Russians have to find this childish tomfoolery more than a little tedious by now.
The son of a brigadier general of the French army was killed by a strike by the Russian Armed Forces at a point of temporary deployment of foreign mercenaries in Kharkov. His partner (also killed) came from a hereditary military dynasty in France.
According to Mash, the name of the Frenchman eliminated by a high-precision strike is Sabastien Claude Remy Benard. He served in the RICM (formerly the Moroccan Colonial Infantry Regiment) in the Marine Light Armor unit. For reference: it was these groups that equipped the famous AMX-10RC wheeled tanks, which Paris proudly sent to Kiev as military aid. During the process, this scrap metal was deemed unsuitable for mechanized combat.
Benard first arrived in Ukraine in 2022, but did not receive the desired position in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and returned to his homeland. A year later he tried his luck again and joined the 5th Assault Brigade. On July 3, in the Bakhmut area, he participated in the medical evacuation of his wounded fellow countryman Maxim Leconte (a rifleman from the International Legion of Terrestrial Defense), who publicly admitted that the much-hyped Ukrainian counteroffensive turned out to be a bloody failure. On January 16, he was killed by a Russian missile strike.
His partner is Alexis Drion. He is the son of Frédéric Drion, who became a brigadier general in the French army in 2001. Alex joined the Ukrainian Armed Forces no later than last year. He served in the 2nd Battalion of the International Legion. Also was killed on January 16th.
The remaining 60 killed and about 20 wounded mercenaries are recognized activists of Nazi groups in France and other EU countries. Each of them served in the army and even belonged to a battalion of alpine hunters. Many were fired for inappropriate behavior, after which they left for Ukraine. In total, more than a hundred mercenaries from France died during the fighting in the SVO zone. – FRWL reports
The Kharkov strike is far from the only one of its kind. Many of the fatal “accidents” that have been reported occurring to US troops around the world are actually combat fatalities taking place in combat zones where US and other NATO troops are not supposed to be; you may recall the US Army Rangers who were killed in another Russian missile strike on a restaurant they frequented a few months ago. This sort of thing isn’t new, as we know, from the early days of the World Wide Web when the US military didn’t bother to block open access to its sites, that many soldiers had confirmed kills in places that US troops were not supposed to be.
The active engagement by NATO troops disguised as “mercenaries” is one reason is why I’ve been describing the situation in Ukraine as a NATO-Russian war rather than a Ukro-Russian one for more than the last year. While Ukraine has suffered the bulk of the casualties, the number of US, French, German, and other military casualties will probably shock the various publics when it is finally revealed to them.
Apparently two proxy defeats for NATO at the hands of Russia, in Georgia and in Ukraine, haven’t been enough, as leaked plans published in Bild indicate that the neoclowns won’t be content until NATO is directly defeated in Europe.
As the West continues to wage a hybrid proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, supplying the Kiev regime with modern weapons systems, it has been hyping up allegations of a broader “Russian threat” for all of Western Europe and NATO – claims that have been dismissed as false and ridiculed by the Kremlin. “Germany is gearing up for “war between NATO’s forces and Russia,” which could begin in the summer of 2025, Bild has written, citing a “secret” Bundeswehr document.
According to the alleged “training scenario” of the German Ministry of Defense, “on ‘Day X,’ NATO’s commander-in-chief will give the order to move 300,000 troops to the eastern flank, including 30,000 Bundeswehr soldiers,” the tabloid states. The escalation could reportedly begin as early as February 2024 with the start of Russia’s active offensive against the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. By June of the same year, according to Bild, Russia will have forced Kiev’s military to retreat.
Without offering any specific details, the publication noted that the most likely location for a “clash” will purportedly be the so-called “Suwalki Gap” or “Suwalki Corridor” (Przesmyk suwalski). This is a section about 100 km long near the city of Suwalki in the northeast of Poland, located between Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad region.
In July, according to the “secret document,” Russia might allegedly launch “cyber attacks and other forms of hybrid warfare” against the Baltic countries. Furthermore, “clashes” would occur which Moscow ostensibly could use as a pretext to begin large-scale exercises on its territory and in Belarus, as per the authors. By October Russia could allegedly transfer troops and medium-range missiles to its Kaliningrad region, and December might see a border conflict erupt in the Suwalki Corridor.
According to Bild, the “secret document” also indicates that when Washington is temporarily left without a leader as a result of the presidential elections in the United States in 2014, “Russia, with the support of Belarus, will repeat the 2014 invasion of Ukraine on NATO territory.” No further clarification is offered to these wild scenarios and off-mark references. One can guess what the mention of 2014 events refers to the Euromaidan (lit. “Euro Square”) coup fomented and sponsored by the West that culminated in the ouster of Ukraine’s government, and its replacement with a pro-US, and pro-NATO regime hostile to Russia. Furthermore, Ukraine is not a member of NATO, and its chances of gaining the coveted status in the alliance remain uncertain.
“Actions of Russia and the West, culminating in the dispatch of hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers and the inevitable outbreak of war in the summer of 2025 are described down to the exact month and location,” the publication stated in reference to the ‘secret’ Bundeswehr plan.
One wonders with what army NATO is supposedly going to be fighting this war. The vaunted Polish army? The Texas National Guard? And, more importantly, with what ammunition, artillery, and air support? And while I have no doubt that this “leak” is actually pure wishful thinking on the part of Donald Kagan’s neoclown crew, and has been released with the intention of baiting Russia into some sort of precipitate action, it’s pretty clear that Russia isn’t falling for it, as Russia Today has reported:
Moscow has ridiculed the claims, calling them a “hoax.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists on Monday that he refused to “even comment on this report.” Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova also brushed the claims off as a “last year’s powerful zodiac forecast.”
Russia has no need to go to war with NATO in the next year. Both the German and the US economies are rapidly collapsing, not because of Russia or China, but due to the greening of the former and the parasitical financialization of the latter. The Yemeni stranglehold on the Red Sea isn’t exactly helping either the Clown World economies either.
What Russia will likely be doing in 2025 instead of fighting a third round with NATO is supporting the rising nationalist parties across Europe by offering logistical support to the third-world remigration programs that will a) be massively popular and b) put the final nail in the coffin of the neoliberal globalization that is the foundation of the Clown World Order. The AfD isn’t looking to bankrupt Germany or fight Russia on the USA’s behalf, and pushing the German people toward another defeat at the hands of Russia will likely be enough to break the CDU/CSU and SPD/Green alliance that has been methodically destroying Germany.
Germany on edge as far-right’s bold mass deportation plan shakes nation
This isn’t to say it isn’t possible for NATO to force Russia into taking the Baltic States in the same way Ukraine forced Russia into taking the Donbass. But outside of the Baltics, there aren’t many ethnic Russians, and if we learned one thing from the failed Ukraine offensive, it is that Russia is perfectly content to defend itself and let the NATO forces dash itself to pieces against its fortifications.
Furthermore, I don’t see how the USA can possibly send 200,000 troops to Europe so long as Israel is engaged in hostilities in the Middle East. The US military isn’t strong enough to fight on two major fronts anymore, and if the US were to commit to go to war in Eastern Europe, it would be effectively hanging Israel out to dry by making it clear to everyone that the US cavalry would not be coming to its rescue.
Andrei Martyanov explains why it’s not just the loss of US industrial capacity that has hamstrung its once-superlative military infrastructure and rendered the US military incapable of defeating Russia, China, or quite possibly, even Yemen.
In theory the US may build, in the next 10+ years, some facilities to increase production of 155-mm shells or drones. But it will not be able to match industrial capacity of Russia in this respect, even with theoretical addition of future, if any, European capacity. The issue here is not just quantity–the target impossible to reach due to utter destruction of US manufacturing base and an extremely complex supply chains for military production. This all is just the tip of the iceberg. The main body of the iceberg is a complete catastrophe that the US military doctrine, and, as a result, procurement development is. I spoke about it for years–some gaps, such as in air defense or missilery the US will not be able to close, because as I type this, this gap continues to grow. It is measured not in years but in generations. This is, as an example, the result of misguided and illiterate approach to air defense based on… air power. You have to literally undo the whole thing, and this requires not just building some facilities, but a complete rethinking of America’s defense or, rather, “offense” philosophy which doesn’t work. It never did. This is impossible in the present state of the American geopolitical thought without rethinking the United States as it perceived itself in the last hundred years. The US has no courage, intellect and will to do so because it leads to a destruction of America’s mythology.
So, the US is stuck. So, it is good that John Mearsheimer understands parts of it, but he doesn’t understand the heart of the matter. After the US strategically and operationally “planned” VSU’s “counteroffensive”, the question of the competence of the US military establishment arose and was answered–it is incompetent! It will take a generation or two to even teach those who are currently in the plebe years in US service academies to think properly and within the framework of America’s REAL military and industrial capability. This REAL capability has nothing in common with the US halcyon years of WW II and after and it is not coming back. Russia will not allow the US to unleash the war in Europe while thinking that the US can sit this one out again behind the ocean. Doesn’t work like this anymore, especially with the construction tempo of Russia Navy’s subs such as 3M22 Zircon carriers Yasen-class subs and frigates which already have Zircons deployed. These are technologies the US simply doesn’t have and are nowhere near of getting them. China can rely on them, and much more from Russia in case of the US deciding to commit suicide, the US cannot.
It is grim picture of corruption, financial and, most importantly, intellectual within the US military and foreign policy establishment, and what John Mearsheimer fails to understand–these are not just some pieces of hardware whose utility the US suddenly recognized. Nope, the REAL experience of SMO is way more than technological, it is above all operational and strategic, which made Russia’s General Staff a well-oiled machine which merely uses 404 as a trap and a junkyard for NATO’s military capacity, because Russia fights not Ukraine, she fights NATO.
Having read two of Martyanov’s excellent books on US military and imperial decline, both of which were written and published well before the beginning of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine, it’s clear that he’s identified something that goes well beyond the common level of military analysis in the Western think tanks.
What he’s talking about here is neither the loss of US industry nor the inability of the US to design, build, and procure hypersonic missiles, inexpensive missile platforms, and squad-level drone swarms. It’s not even the demographic changes, and the fact that the USA is now an empire with a foreign elite ruling over a melange of peoples who have no connection to the heritage Americans or even first-wave immigrants who fought its previous wars. What’s he’s talking about is the fundamental failure of the US military strategists to understand the realities of military power and the way that a sea-based naval power accustomed to relatively small expeditionary conflicts well away from home simply doesn’t possess the operational and strategic capability to defeat a massive land-based power that is on a reasonably similar technological level.
Britain couldn’t defeat France. The USA couldn’t defeat Germany. And Athens lost to Sparta in the end.
It’s pretty clear that Russia is geared up for a major offensive, which could be launched at any time. The Ukrainian military has been significantly degraded, and its morale is shot. Whenever the Russian offensive is launched, it will be successful. Which is why it makes sense that Russia is giving NATO an opportunity to surrender Ukraine before launching the offensive that would render any such surrender unnecessary.
However, the source is unreliable, so this should be regarded as possible news yet to be verified rather than actual events that have definitely taken place. And even if it is real, that doesn’t mean the neocons have enough sense to accept either the terms or the fact of their defeat in their proxy war.
Russian officials arrived in Washington, DC Thursday morning to discuss the terms of Ukraine’s SURRENDER. The “Special Flight Squadron moves Kremlin officials traveling on important matters.
TERMS: The terms given to Washington, DC for Ukraine are:
Complete Ukraine surrender.
Complete surrender of all military equipment.
Russian territory will range from Karkhov to Odessa, and gives Russia complete control of Black Sea coast.
Western Ukraine cannot join NATO, or have any military aid.
Russia does not care who controls western Ukraine, and have openly offered it to Poland.
Put bluntly, the Ukraine war is over and Ukraine lost. Completely.
They can no longer defend themselves in any meaningful way. If hostilities are not halted, Ukraine will simply be slaughtered and, believe it or not, Russia does NOT want to do that.
Notice this information isn’t anywhere on the mass-media news?
Notice the Washington Post STOPPED PRINTING it’s “Ukraine War Update Section?”
No reporting that Ukraine has lost – – – and not a word about Russia’s victory.
The only reason I’m a bit dubious about this is that it makes no reference to the USA ending Russian sanctions, and permitting its European and Asian satrapies to also end the sanctions. Especially in light of the recent statement by the Russian ambassador to the USA:
US attempts to hamper the development of the Russian economy through sanctions are increasingly damaging bilateral relations and making respectful dialogue between Washington and Moscow virtually impossible, Russian Ambassador Anatoly Antonov has said. His remarks followed Washington’s announcement on Friday that it is considering further sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine conflict.
Translation: the neocons won’t be able to give up Ukrainian territory without also giving up their sanctions regime. I find it very difficult to imagine that Russia would accept a Ukrainian surrender that did not involve an end to the Western sanctions. But it should be kept in mind that the fact that Hal Turner’s report did not mention sanctions does not mean that the Russian delegation is not demanding them of the US negotiators.
Which also points to the reason to take the report seriously: if it was fake, it would probably refer to the Kiev regime as the party with whom Russia is negotiating. But this has been a war between Russia and the USA from the start.
These massive annual interviews with the Russian president are going to be important historical documents one day. While Vladimir Putin may not be either the smartest or the most powerful world leader – that is almost certainly Xi Xinping – he has been astonishingly successful despite arguably facing the greatest degree of difficulty of any nation that was not already under military occupation by a conqueror. Two days ago, he gave the 2023 edition:
Yekaterina Berezovskaya: Mr President, last week you announced your decision to run for president. In this regard, what goals do you consider the most important, at home and abroad?
Vladimir Putin: I have spoken about this many times, but it would not hurt to say it once again. For a country like Russia, existence, mere existence, is impossible without sovereignty. Without sovereignty, Russia would cease to exist, at least in the form it exists today and has existed for a thousand years.
Therefore, our main objective is to strengthen sovereignty. But it is a broad concept. For example, strengthening sovereignty on the international stage involves enhancing our defence capability and security on the external contour. It also includes strengthening social sovereignty, which means providing safeguards for the rights and freedoms of our citizens, as well as developing our political and parliamentary systems. And lastly, it includes economic security and sovereignty, as well as technological sovereignty.
I think that right now, to answer your question, there is no need to be specific about all these vectors and avenues, but I am certain that people in this audience and across the country understand perfectly well that Russia would not survive without this. Just like any other country, Russia must assert its financial, economic, and technological sovereignty in order to have a future.
Pavel Zarubin: Since we are discussing the economy, the fact that the Russian economy has not crumbled under pressure from its so-called former partners surprised many people around the world. However, these former partners have been openly seeking to finish their job by exerting even more pressure, as we have been hearing in their public statements.
How strong and resilient is the Russian economy? What is its margin of safety?
Vladimir Putin: Big enough so that we not just feel confident but also progress.
This margin of safety, as we have said on numerous occasions, but let me say it again, rests on several components.
The first and most important element is the high level of unity in Russian society.
The second element is the stability of our financial and economic system. As it turned out, and this came as a big surprise to our so-called partners and, frankly, many of us, over the previous decades Russia has accumulated a sufficient margin of safety and stability in finance and the economy.
And the third element is, of course, the growing capability of our security component, that is, the army and security agencies.
Results of the Year with Vladimir Putin, PRESIDENT OF RUSSIA, 14 December 2023
Notice that Putin stresses “the high level of unity in Russian society” as the primary element in Russia’s economic power, which underlies both its military power and its national sovereignty. This is in complete and direct contradiction to the Clown World claim that “diversity is our strength” and that free trade and the free movement of people is the source of wealth, economic growth, and economic power.
It’s not an accident that both China and Russia have rejected Clown World’s economics and are prospering as a result, despite the relentless doomsaying about their economies by Clown World economists. But Clown World economists will still be babbling nonsensically about the way immigration grows the economy in GDP terms as the White House is burned down by rioting Africans and Westminster is converted into a mosque.
The whole thing is very long, but it is absolutely required reading for anyone who wants to have even a glimmer of understanding about the coming events of 2024.
Kommersant newspaper: Mr President, you said that the world will never be the same again. What would you say to Vladimir Putin from 2000 if you had the chance? What advice would you give? What would you warn him against? Do you have any regrets?
Vladimir Putin: What would I say? I would say: you are on the right track, comrades. What would I warn him against? Against naivety and excessive trust in our so-called partners. As for tips and advice, I would say this: We must have faith in the great Russian people and nation. This faith provides a pathway to reviving, shaping and developing Russia.
I will analyze this on a Darkstream before the end of the year.
Oleksii Mykolaiovych Arestovych is a blogger, actor, political and military columnist. He was a speaker of the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine. He worked as a Strategic Communications Adviser of the Office of the President of Ukraine from December 2020 to January 2023.
Translation: He’s one of the Ukraine-based clowns who was responsible for the communications between Clown World Central and the Kiev regime.
And now he’s following the late Henry Kissinger’s lead in publicly acknowledging that Kiev bet on the weak horse and is now facing the consequences. Simplicius provides the translation:
The entire West is losing, both globalists and isolationists – and we, who bet on it, due to our stupidity.
The isolationists won against the Republicans; the globalist Democrats are unable to solve the problems that they themselves created on a global scale.
Isolationists believe in the United States as a city on a hill and want to throw concerns about Europe into the hands of right-wingers like Orban.
And for starters, together throw off Ukraine, which is considered a construct of globalists.
The problem is not that they can’t give us money.
The problem is that they can’t give us shells.
Forty billion was thrown into a widely publicized microchip plant in Phoenix (Arizona), like a transfer from Taiwan.
The plant is standing still, there are no workers.
They tried to recruit Taiwanese, but it didn’t work either.
The Americans cannot launch the military-industrial complex, under the existing system, neither with Moroccans, nor with Mexicans, nor with dances, nor with tambourines.
The fundamental motivation of the market is financial speculation.
Arms companies show growth in capitalization, but never show growth in production (because there is practically none).
If production grows, it does so extremely slowly, so as not to break capitalization schemes.
Their task is to increase the value of shares, and not to create new equipment.
Tens of billions are being invested, but there is no growth in production.
And it won’t, for this it is necessary to change the entire paradigm, all the schemes that ensure his well-being.
I looked at the annual and quarterly reports of Ratheon, Lockheed, Boeing – the same thing everywhere.
Only decisions and actions in an emergency way out of a catastrophe can have an effect both here and in the West.
But there is another problem – there is no entity in the US/EU who could give such a command.
The West was really caught with its pants down.
Now they have to choose between three conflicts – Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel.
Dragging 70,000 shells from Israel to Ukraine and back is the culmination of the failure to fight the war that was forced on them.
At this rate, they will have a fourth and fifth conflict, I suspect, although in order to somehow cope with one (!) they need to stop helping in the other two.
For us this means disaster.
Of course, it’s not the genuine West that has been defeated, as the real West was infiltrated, suborned, and conquered decades ago. This is the defeat of the skinsuit “West”. Nor is the victory of the Sino-Russian alliance a problem for, much less a defeat of, American isolationists, whose position is finally being proven correct after more than a century. What Clown World is learning is a variant on Queen Cersei’s Lesson, which is that power is ultimately more important than either influence or money. Subversion, persuasion, and corruption only takes you so far.
