Tag: politics

Trust the plan. Carlos Osweda explains why there is no need to freak out over the Democrats’ electoral shenanigans:

1. Trump prepared for this exact fight.
2. Trump LOVES challenges.
3. The law is 100 percent on Trump’s side.
4. Trump has a million legal weapons to fight this.
5. This will lead to greater federal oversight of voting for national office. 

TRUMP WON.

The reason they pulled this amateurish horseshit is that Republicans never fought fraud before.

WHAT HAVE I TOLD YOU IS THE FATAL FLAW OF LEFTISM?

Leftists always overreach.

A few thoughts:

1. It really was amateurish. The combination of statistical improbabilities with the obvious nature of the vote production in precisely the counties I highlighted before the election – Milwaukee, Hennepin, and Wayne – made the fraud obvious. The only question is how Trump will prove it.
2. It’s clear that Trump saw this coming. Why else did he cancel his election night party before the voting started?
3. Trump loves to trap his opponents. Given the way this was telegraphed, is it more likely that he walked right into the situtation a) with a plan to use it or b) without a plan to use it?
4. It wasn’t just the states now being contested. The Hennepin County statistics are also historical outliers. There are almost certainly others.
5. Trump has conceded nothing, nor does he appear to be either rattled or upset.
6. Did Trump have negative coattails? How did Republicans hold the Senate and gain seats in the House if Biden actually received the most votes in U.S. history?
7. Never give up until the whistle blows.

We have claimed, for Electoral Vote purposes, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (which won’t allow legal observers) the State of Georgia, and the State of North Carolina, each one of which has a BIG Trump lead. Additionally, we hereby claim the State of Michigan if, in fact, there was a large number of secretly dumped ballots as has been widely reported! 

– Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump

This, and not the election, is the real test of President Trump. In his Discourses, Machiavelli lamented how societies fail because good men refuse to do what needs to be done in order to save them. But it appears that Donald Trump is not going to be a good Republican, sell out his supporters, look the other way, and pretend that a significant part of the vote for his opponent was not fraudulent.

Broward County (M=67)

• Biden = 64.6{3aedcb51dac2fbb83a885d32b07950f3050377138d02430f831f0a3ede84357a}

Miami-Dade County (M=67)

• Biden = 53.4{3aedcb51dac2fbb83a885d32b07950f3050377138d02430f831f0a3ede84357a}

Philadelphia County (M=83)

• Biden = 73.3{3aedcb51dac2fbb83a885d32b07950f3050377138d02430f831f0a3ede84357a} 76.2{3aedcb51dac2fbb83a885d32b07950f3050377138d02430f831f0a3ede84357a}

Wayne County (M=67)

• Biden = 58.1{3aedcb51dac2fbb83a885d32b07950f3050377138d02430f831f0a3ede84357a} 67.0{3aedcb51dac2fbb83a885d32b07950f3050377138d02430f831f0a3ede84357a} 

Hennepin County (M=62)

• Biden = 70.7{3aedcb51dac2fbb83a885d32b07950f3050377138d02430f831f0a3ede84357a}

Milwaukee County (M=67)

• Biden = 60.0{3aedcb51dac2fbb83a885d32b07950f3050377138d02430f831f0a3ede84357a} 69.1{3aedcb51dac2fbb83a885d32b07950f3050377138d02430f831f0a3ede84357a}

Mecklenburg County (M=64)

CURRENT VERDICT: early returns look VERY solidly pro-Trump. It’s all but over already. Note that we need to see OFFICIAL RETURNS from the counties confirming the statistical trends before anything can be called.

Quote of the Day: You’re not going to learn anything useful about the election outcome on here until 7pm, i.e. when they start counting votes. – Nate Silver, 538

Broward County (M=67)

2016:

• 1,179,189 registered
• 822,837 cast
• 71.8 percent turnout

Mecklenburg County (M=64)

We’ll start keeping track here. Please feel free to help in the comments. Interesting that Vermont is too early to call….

INDIANA

Last night’s Darkstream addressed the key counties that will provide insight concerning who has won the U.S. Presidential election:

The key counties are:

• Broward – FL
• Philadelphia – PA
• Wayne – MI
• Hennepin – MN
• Milwaukee – WI

And for an early glimpse into who will probably win the election, pay close attention to Mecklenburg County in NC. If Biden doesn’t get at least 64 percent there, he probably loses the election. On a related note, one viewer emailed to confirm one of the underlying theses about the Swing-Key system.

What you said about Broward County explains what I saw in 2000. It was clear very quickly that everything hinged on FL. I was paying close attention election night, with regular page refreshes, and I saw Bush’s lead increase from the low thousands early in the evening to a very solid 50K by around 2AM (PST). Gore was about to concede and Bush about to declare victory, when, suddenly, in a period of maybe 10 minutes, that lead shrank to around 1500 votes. It really blew my mind. 

You’re going to to need this to know what happened in a reasonable period of time, because Twitter is limiting to seven the number of outlets that are permitted to declare the winner.

First, let’s review the final mainstream perspective. The Swing States this time are Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, in that order.

FL:  Biden + 4. The final PoliticalIQ Battleground State poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden with a modest lead over President Trump in Florida. The poll, conducted October 28-30 by Scott Rasmussen, shows Biden winning 51% of the vote while Trump picks up 47%. Two percent (2%) have or will be voting for some other candidate. If Biden wins Florida, there is virtually no remaining path to a re-election victory for the President.

PA: Biden +7. Pennsylvania has emerged as the keystone state of the entire race for the White House. The final Monmouth University survey finds Biden at 51 percent and Trump at 44 percent among likely voters in a high-turnout scenario. That’s down from Biden’s 11-point lead in the same poll from last month. 

MI: Biden +8, 51-43

MN: Biden +9, 52-43

WI: Biden +8, 52-44

Arizona, Iowa, and Ohio are not swing states. Neither is North Carolina, although we’ll be tracking it as an early reporting signal.

Now, as I’ll be explaining on the Darkstream later tonight, each of these states is structured the same way, with one or two urban counties providing one-third of the entire Democratic vote, while the Republican vote is scattered over the rest of the state. To know what is going to happen in the state, all that is really required is to know what is going to happen in those six counties, namely, Broward, Miami-Dade, Philadephia, Wayne, Hennepin, and Milwaukee. Hence what I call my Swing-Key system, which is short for Swing State – Key County analysis.

At this point, the two counties I’ve examined in detail are the two Florida counties. Of the two, the Broward County information is a little more current, but both are reasonably up-to-date on the voter information. In Broward, the Democratic advantage in voter registration delta is 1.04 percent. In keeping with the general increase in registrations, this suggests a net increase of 18,448 Democratic votes in Broward County.

However, in Miami-Dade, the Republicans actually have the voter registration delta working in their favor. The Republican advantage is 5.61 percent, which suggests a net decrease of -3,495 Democratic votes in Miami-Dade County. 15,000 more Democratic votes from the two counties that provide more than one-quarter of all the Democratic votes in Florida simply isn’t going to be enough, given that Republican registrations are actually up throughout the state.

Since President Trump won Florida by 119,770 votes in 2016, these numbers indicate that he will retain Florida with relative ease despite what the polls say. This is just a metric, not a mathematical proof, and its chief utility is that it gives us an informed point of comparison by which we can interpret the results as they come in. If Biden can’t get more than 475,000 votes in Broward or 660,000 votes in Miami-Dade, or exceed 67 percent in both counties, he has virtually no chance of winning either Florida or the election.

We’ve officially reached CYA Season, as Nate Silver is beginning to change his tune despite insisting that Creepy Joe has a 90 percent chance of winning the U.S. presidential election:

Pennsylvania has not bumped up to a 7- or 8-point Biden lead like we see in Michigan and Wisconsin. It’s 5 points. It’s not a big early voting state, so a lot of votes have not yet been cast in Pennsylvania. Among the votes that were sent in by mail, there are some provisions about a naked ballot, a security envelope. That could make things more complicated. You could have the courts involved. You have some protests, looting in Philadelphia. There’s lots of stuff going on. Maybe a lot of little things add up and Biden loses Pennsylvania by half a point, and then he doesn’t quite pull off Arizona or North Carolina. He does have other options. … But still, without Pennsylvania, then Biden becomes an underdog.

The reality is the Biden is going to lose PA, MI, WI, AZ, and NC, as one new poll is already indicating that President Trump will even win the popular vote.

The Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll of 1,500 likely voters was conducted between October 28 and October 30 and shows Trump with a one point lead over Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the national popular vote, 48 percent to 47 percent.  Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen receives two percent of the vote, and Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins receives one percent of the vote.

The poll also shows the president leading in the Electoral College by a margin of 326 to 212. On election day 2016, the president won 306 Electoral College votes to 232 for Hillary Clinton. The Constitution provides that a candidate must win a majority of the Electoral College votes cast–270 out of 538–to win the presidency.

According to Democracy Institute/Sunday Express poll, Trump leads in all the states he won in 2016, and is poised to gain 20 additional Electoral College votes in three states Hillary Clinton won in 2016: Minnesota (10 Electoral College votes), Nevada (six Electoral College votes), and New Hampshire (four electoral college votes.)

Enjoy the Trumpslide. Don’t be surprised if the God-Emperor outperforms even these most recent and favorable predictions.

Precisely on schedule. Demoralization Season is now over and it’s Maintain Future Credibility time. This Republican candidate is correct about what is happening as predicted.

The Trump/Biden polls aren’t tightening. This is the last ditch effort of pollsters trying to save their pathetic propaganda careers.

– Lauren Witzke, US Senate candidate, DE

Unfortunately for those propaganda careers, the magnitude of Trump’s victory is going to render their efforts futile.

Clay Travers of Outkick the Coverage explains why he is voting for Donald Trump:

I believe every single media member should address his or her audience and say exactly what they are doing with their own vote this year. I think authenticity matters and I believe audiences should know what public figures who claim to be unbiased do when they enter the privacy of a voting booth. This is not a new position for me, I have shared my presidential votes publicly every year that I’ve been a public figure.

For those of you who are new to Outkick: here are my presidential votes since I became a public media figure in 2004:

2004: John Kerry

2008: Barack Obama

2012: Barack Obama

2016: Gary Johnson

2020: Donald Trump

I also voted for Al Gore in 2000 and worked on his political campaign as a college student.

This voting record illustrates precisely why linear models based on changing demographics don’t work. And it also demonstrates why the God-Emperor is going to considerably exceed expectations next week.