Tag: decline and fall

Strategically Incapable

The USA is not only “agreement-incapable”, it is now also strategically incapable, as Reminiscence of the Future correctly observes:

You cannot explain to 99.99% of people within the Beltway what real war is, how military strategy is subordinated to the strategy of the state (meaning geopolitics in a larger sense). Lastly, you cannot explain it to the average US MSM journo or “analysts” (or “expert”) which is a euphemism for the general lack of culture and ignorance.

The war in Ukraine is reaching a new phase, and US strategy is undergoing an important shift. Fears of Russian nuclear escalation are receding as fears of a long war featuring unrelenting attrition are increasing. So President Joe Biden’s administration is ramping up support for Ukraine now in hopes of producing an eventual diplomatic resolution — an “escalate to de-escalate” strategy that may prove very difficult to execute. Nearly a year into the war, uncertainty about its course is greater than ever. For the first six months, Russia had the initiative: The major questions were when, where and with what success it would attack. Over the following five months, Ukraine had the initiative, and analysts tried to divine the location and prospects of its counteroffensives.

The United States can not do “strategy”, it never could after WW II. It took SMO to expose utter incompetence of the US “elites” with all their military, diplomatic and academic institutions. It is a parade of the ambitious amateurs who are no good for any serious task of statesmanship, despite all their hefty fraudulent degrees. US “diplomacy” is a butt of jokes among the rest of the world, US military cannot fight a serious combined arms conflict with peer, without sustaining catastrophic losses.

The reason the USA is not capable of constructing a grand strategy is that it is not a nation. It is an empire which is ruled by a foreign elite, rather like the Roman Empire once the emperors ceased to be Roman.

In China’s Grand Strategy: Trends, Trajectories, and Long-Term Competition, the seven RAND scholars define the concept of grand strategy: Grant strategy is the process by which a state relates long-term ends to means within the rubric of an overarching and enduring vision to advance the national interest.

But when the state is controlled by an elite that has interests which are separate, distinct, and in some cases contradictory to the national interest, it is not possible to create any overarching and enduring vision, because the overarching and enduring objective of the elite is to remain in power.

This built-in contradiction between the national interest and the foreign elite’s interest will necessarily and inevitably lead to growing incoherencies that are even more readily apparent to enemies outside the state than nationals within it. Which, no doubt, is why Wang Hunin was able to observe the incoherencies and write America Against America 20 years before I made some of the same observations, which was nearly 20 years before it became obvious to most Americans that “defending democracy” looked a lot like “installing a puppet regime” in Ukraine.

What is the USA’s grand strategy? No one can say. Even the US strategists readily admit that they have no idea what it is. Defending the petrodollar is not a grand strategy. Preventing the rise of Russia and China is not a grand strategy. Maintaining the largest GDP or the highest GDP per capita is not a grand strategy. Eliminating the European population within a state is a grand strategy of sorts, but it is an evil, insane, and observably inimical to the national interest, ergo it is not a viable one for the United States.

And the incoherency produced by having a state with separate interests from the nation is why the USA is absolutely destined to defeat at the hands of nation-states with genuine grand strategies. There are other valid reasons, of course, beginning with industrial capacity, but on the most basic level, it should be easy to understand that it is much more difficult to successfully reach a destination when one doesn’t even have a particular one in mind.

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The Sacrifice of the Slavs

The NATO-Russian war has been anticipated for nearly 30 years, and various aspects of it, from the use of Ukrainian proxy soldiers to expanding NATO to Japan, were being pushed by George Soros as long ago as 1993 in a piece entitled Toward a New World Order: The Future of NATO, in which he envisioned the transition from the post-WWII world order to the present Clown World Order, albeit one that would literally rule over the entire planet.

The countries of Europe must bear a larger share of the cost and have a correspondingly larger say in NATO. Economic aid to Eastern Europe would provide a much needed stimulus to the depressed European economies. The fact that the present command structure of NATO is too lopsided in favor of the United States is well recognized by all parties; making NATO the pillar of the Partnership for Peace would hasten the process of adjustment. Specifically, it should induce France to reenter as a full member. That would serve as the test of the success of its internal reorganization.

There is only one deficiency in this design: it leaves Japan out of account. Japan should be asked to join NATO. Then we would have the beginnings of an architecture for a new world order. It is based on the United States as the remaining superpower and on open society as the organizing principle. It consists of a series of alliances, the most important of which is NATO and, through NATO, the Partnership for Peace which girds the Northern Hemisphere. The United States would not be called upon to act as the policeman of the world. When it acts, it would act in conjunction with others. Incidentally, the combination of manpower from Eastern Europe with the technical capabilities of NATO would greatly enhance the military potential of the Partnership because it would reduce the risk of body bags for NATO countries, which is the main constraint on their willingness to act. This is a viable alternative to the looming world disorder.

However, what I find fascinating is the way in which, earlier in the article, his theory of history and consequent boom-bust model, the details of which remain undisclosed, tend to apply much more closely to the present Clown World Order and the so-called “open societies” than anything else. This may explain some of the panic and desperation that one senses from Soros and other influential clowns.

My theory of history is based on the recognition that our understanding of the world in which we live is inherently imperfect. We have to act without full knowledge of the facts because the facts are created by our decisions. There can be no correspondence between our view of the world and the actual state of affairs, because the actual state of affairs is not independently given and our view of the world has nothing definite to correspond to. Therefore, there must always be a discrepancy between the participants’ thinking and the actual state of affairs and that discrepancy provides the key to understanding the course of history.

There are times when the discrepancy is relatively minor, and there is a tendency towards convergence between people’s views and the actual state of affairs. That is the case when prevailing institutions are flexible enough, so that they can be adjusted to meet people’s desires, and there are critical processes at work which bring people’s thinking in line with practical possibilities. In these near-equilibrium conditions, the discrepancy does not influence the course of events to any great extent and it can be safely neglected. It is in these conditions that the timelessly valid generalizations of economic theory, perfect competition, efficient markets, the discounting of future expectations, are relevant.

But there are times when the discrepancy between perception and reality is very wide and shows no tendency towards convergence. On these occasions, the course of events follows a totally different pattern and the normal rules do not apply. These far-from-equilibrium conditions arise at the two extremes of changelessness or rigidity on the one hand, and changeability or instability on the other…

I have made a special study of these conditions of dynamic disequilibrium, both in the financial markets and in other settings. I find the boom/bust pattern that is common in financial markets also very helpful in understanding the rise and fall of the Soviet system. But, of course, one must not apply the pattern uncritically.

I shall not go into the details of my theory. The most important point I want to make about the boom/bust pattern is that it is a time-bound, one-directional process but it is open-ended and also characterized by discontinuities. That is to say, a prevailing trend can be reversed at any time; indeed, an eventual trend reversal is an integral part of the boom/bust pattern and the point at which the trend is reversed is not determined in advance. Indeed, in the financial markets, for every boom/bust pattern that becomes fully developed, a great many are aborted in the early stages.

Another important feature of the boom/bust pattern is that it is asymmetrical. The boom is drawn out, the bust is condensed. It is the lack of time that makes the bust so violent. Events happen so fast that it is very difficult to adjust one’s thinking and behavior to changing circumstances. Policies which would have been appropriate in the early stages are ineffective or counterproductive at another. This can be very disorienting, especially when people do not recognize a distinction between near-equilibrium and far-from-equilibrium conditions .

There is no group on Earth with a greater discrepancy between perception and reality right now than the foreign elite presently ruling the United States and presiding over Clown World. They don’t recognize how weak the US military forces are vis-a-vis the Chinese, the Russians, or even Iran, they don’t recognize the way the society over which they preside is rapidly crumbling, they don’t recognize that it is the economic order they dominate that is more fragile than those of their enemies, and they vastly overestimate their ability to control the thoughts of those over whom they have influence.

The seeds of their incipient failure were sown by their past success.

In short, Soros and his fellow clowns are making Littlefinger’s Error, which is confusing influence for power. And while Clown World’s boom has lasted since 1965 – although one could argue for 1945 – the bust is coming rapidly, and as Soros writes, it will be condensed and violent, although we cannot yet know the precise timing, the starting location, or even the fundamental nature of the bust.

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Troisième Guerre Mondiale

A French analyst is one of the few quasi-mainstream thinkers who appears to understand the true scope of the current conflict.

Emmanuel Todd was not at Davos. But it was the French anthropologist, historian, demographer and geopolitical analyst who ended up ruffling all the appropriate feathers across the collective West these past few days with a fascinating anthropological object: a reality-based interview. So here’s Todd’s concise Greatest Hits.

  • A new World War is on: By “switching from a limited territorial war to a global economic clash, between the collective West on one side and Russia linked to China on the other side, this became a World War”.
  • The Kremlin, says Todd, made a mistake, calculating that a decomposed Ukraine society would collapse right away. Of course he does not get into detail on how Ukraine had been weaponized to the hilt by the NATO military alliance.
  • Todd is spot on when he stresses how Germany and France had become minor partners at NATO and were not aware of what was being plotted in Ukraine militarily: “They did not know that the Americans, British and Poles could allow Ukraine to fight an extended war. NATO’s fundamental axis now is Washington-London-Warsaw-Kiev.”
  • Todd’s major give away is a killer: “The resistance of Russia’s economy is leading the imperial American system to the precipice. Nobody had foreseen that the Russian economy would hold facing NATO’s ‘economic power’”.
  • Consequently, “monetary and financial American controls over the world may collapse, and with them the possibility for the US of financing for nothing their enormous trade deficit”.
  • “The fundamental dilemma of the American economy: it cannot face Chinese competition without importing a qualified Chinese work force.”
  • And that bring us, once again, to globalization, in a manner that Davos roundtables were incapable of understanding: “We have delocalized so much of our industrial activity that we don’t know whether our war production may be sustained”.

Of course he wasn’t at Davos. Davos isn’t listening to anyone who is capable of seeing the situation with clear eyes. Todd is not even remotely wrong. But if he’s selling 100,000 books in Japan based on those entirely obvious conclusions, I should really consider finding myself a Japanese publisher.

Anyhow, if you’re wondering why some of the more historically perspicacious intellectuals appear to be so wildly off-base with regards to their observations of the current situation, a recent conversation I had with one individual proved very illuminating. My impression is that it mostly comes down to the elder generation not being able yet to comprehend any sort of conflict between a) a regional war of the US and its allies against a single regional power, and, b) mutually assured nuclear destruction.

As a general rule, they believe that the USA of 2022 is still, more or less, the USA of 1950, only with momentarily ascendant leftists and better ethnic food. They see the qualitative problems very well, but don’t recognize the scale of the quantitative and issues, which is why their analyses, and their solutions, tend to rely upon some sort of 1980s Reagan-style renaissance that isn’t even a possibility anymore.

From centenarian clowns like Kissinger to twenty-something Republicans who read Victor Davis Hanson, all of the proposed “solutions” to the global war between Clown World and the other 80 percent of the planet led by the Sino-Russian alliance are comically irrelevant. Failing to understand either the nature or the scope of the conflict, it is their reliance upon their familiar axioms and the continuation of the current global infrastructure that is leading them astray.

But very important structural things, have fundamentally changed, as I pointed out on Monday’s Darkstream following a highly unusual statement by the Saudi Finance Minister.

Andy told me back in September 2022: “The dollar hegemony is right about ready to break when you realize that Saudi Arabia is about to join the BRIC nations. Do you think Biden is going to fly there to ask for more oil? He went there to beg them not to join BRIC.”

“The dollar was made reserve currency only because of our protection of the Saudi kingdom,” Andy continued. He then noted astutely that Saudi Arabia had signed new protection agreements with Russia. “All of the Eastern European countries that have repatriated their gold. They’re all part of the EU but they all trade their own currency. They’re all going to break away from the Western system,” he added.

And now it looks like Andy was right: it appears Saudi Arabia has just issued a death knell to the exclusivity of the petrodollar as we once knew it – the first of several dominoes that needs to fall before the U.S. is exposed financially as an emperor with no clothes.

Saudi Arabia Just Killed The Petrodollar, 18 January 2023

It may be worth noting here that my original prediction of 2033 for the end of the political entity known as the USA was predicated on the expected lifespan of the post-Bretton Woods dollar. I don’t recall anyone taking that timeframe very seriously at the time, but if it was an option, it would probably be considered in the money now.

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Human Sacrifice on the Horizon

Sacrificing animals at home is now legal in Detroit:

Residents of a Detroit-area community with a large Muslim population can sacrifice animals at home for religious reasons. The Hamtramck City Council explicitly approved the practice, 3-2, Tuesday, another step in recognizing a cultural shift in a city whose 20th century history was shaped by Polish immigrants. Muslims often slaughter animals, typically goats or sheep, or pay someone to do it for them during the holy holiday of Eid al-Adha. Meat is shared with family, friends and the poor. The Hamtramck council in December had voted to continue a ban on animal slaughter but reversed course, at least for religious reasons, after legal advice and objections from people who follow the Islamic faith, the Detroit Free Press reported.

In fact, human sacrifice for religious purposes is arguably more indigenous to North America than animal sacrifice. Don’t forget that the name of the tribe that ruled the Aztec Empire, which not only utilized human sacrifice for religious purposes, but engaged in it on an industrial scale, is the Mexica. And as the nation named after that tribe has increasingly abandoned its Spanish-imposed Catholicism for a syncretic death cult, the historical trend is clear.

It is coming. Don’t think it isn’t. And the only thing that will stop it is a) the collapse of Clown World and b) Christian revival.

There is no such thing as a secular society. Secularism is just a meaningless line on the gradient between Christianity and devil worship.

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Setting the Theatre

The US military is promising to do for Japan and the Philippines what it has done for Ukraine.

The US and Japanese armed forces are rapidly integrating their command structure and scaling up combined operations as Washington and its Asian allies prepare for a possible conflict with China such as a war over Taiwan, according to the top Marine Corps general in Japan.

The two militaries have “seen exponential increases . . . just over the last year” in their operations on the territory they would have to defend in case of a war, Lieutenant General James Bierman, commanding general of the Third Marine Expeditionary Force (III MEF) and of Marine Forces Japan, told the Financial Times in an interview.

Bierman said that the US and its allies in Asia were emulating the groundwork that had enabled western countries to support Ukraine’s resistance to Russia in preparing for scenarios such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

“Why have we achieved the level of success we’ve achieved in Ukraine? A big part of that has been because after Russian aggression in 2014 and 2015, we earnestly got after preparing for future conflict: training for the Ukrainians, pre-positioning of supplies, identification of sites from which we could operate support, sustain operations.

“We call that setting the theatre. And we are setting the theatre in Japan, in the Philippines, in other locations.”

The thought of “achieving the level of success” the US military has “achieved in Ukraine” should absolutely terrify everyone living in Japan or the Philippines. The Ukrainian military is now down to teenagers, Poles, and US soldiers disguised as “foreign mercenaries” and the NATO-Russian War isn’t even one year old yet. And 12 percent of the Ukrainian population has already fled the country, so where are 15 million Japanese and 14 million Filippinos going to go, and given that both are island countries, how are they going to get there?

I’ve predicted that the USA would collapse sometime around 2033 since the turn of the century, but I never imagined that it would be the result of a military debacle as comprehensive as the coming one appears it’s going to be.

But at least we can answer one question raised by Lieutenant General James Bierman, commanding general of the Third Marine Expeditionary Force (III MEF). Xi Xinping owns the starting pistol for the next stage of WWIII.

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The Vicious Circle

Americans are the only party that can save the USA from Clown World. The Sino-Russian alliance can, and will, resist the US military, but it is not strong enough to liberate the USA the way it can, and will, liberate Asia and Europe:

Russia can do many things, but it cannot liberate the USA from the grip of the Neocons. That is something which only US Americans can do.

And here we hit a vicious circle:

The US political system is most unlikely to be effectively challenged from within, big money runs everything, including the most advanced propaganda system in history (aka the “free media”) and the population is kept uninformed and brainwashed. And yes, of course, a major defeat in a war against Russia would shake this system so hard that it would be impossible to conceal the magnitude of the disaster (think “Kabul on steroids”). And that is precisely why the Neocons cannot allow that to happen because this defeat would trigger a domino effect which would quickly involve the truth about 9/11 and, after that, all the myths and lies the US society has been based on for decades (JFK anybody?).

There are, of course, plenty of US Americans who fully understand that. But how many of them are in a real position of power to influence US decision-making and outcomes? The real question is whether there still are enough patriotic forces in the Pentagon, or the letter soup agencies, to send the Neocons back down into the basement they crawled out of after the 9/11 false flag or not?

Right now it sure looks like all the positions of power in the US are held by Neolibs, Neocons, RINOs and other ugly creatures, yet it is also undeniable that people like, say, Tucker Carlson and Tulsi Gabbard are reaching a lot of people who “get it”. This has to include REAL liberals and REAL conservatives whose loyalty is not to a gang of international thugs but to their own country and their own people.

I am also pretty sure that there are many US military commanders who listen to what Col. Macgregor has to say.

Will that be that enough to break through the wall of lies and propaganda?

I’m more optimistic than The Saker, mostly because I think the system will begin the process of its own demise by undermining its own foundations. The imperial collapse will inevitably come, which is why Americans need to be ready to reassert their right to rule in their own country, even if that is no longer the geographic totality of the current political entity.

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Predictions From the Tree of Woe

Just one prediction for 2023, but it’s a grave one about the petrodollar, its fate, and the consequences therefrom:

The petrodollar is the centerpiece of American hegemony. I predict that in 2023, at the latest 2024, that system will end. Its demise may be disguised by the mainstream and financial press, but it will be self-evident in the transactions themselves, and its aftershocks will be mighty.

Now, the end of the petrodollar system has been a long time coming, of course. It’s been a major goal of America’s strategic competitors for years. In 2017, China and Russia created the petroyuan so that its partners could trade for oil without using dollars. However, the petroyuan did not unseat the petrodollar in the six intervening years. 80% of oil transactions remained in USD. Why?

  • Saudi Arabia, the linchpin of the petrodollar system, continued to insist on using dollars in its transactions.
  • The Chinese continued to be reliant on trade with the US to fuel their economy, and thus could not risk destroying the system that made the US dollar valuable.
  • The US has a proven track record of using military force to support the petrodollar, and with Donald Trump in charge — known to Chinese citizens as “Emperor Trump” for his vigorous policies — the Chinese were reluctant to “fuck around and find out.”

Now those conditions have changed.

Read the whole thing there, keeping in mind that while timings are always uncertain, trends are often clear.

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10,000 Dead Canadians

Canada is literally massacring what once passed for its native population.

Last year, more than 10,000 people in Canada – astonishingly that’s over three percent of all deaths there – ended their lives via euthanasia, an increase of a third on the previous year. And it’s likely to keep rising: next year, Canada is set to allow people to die exclusively for mental health reasons.

To put things in context, that’s the equivalent of 186,000 US citizens being “assisted” last year. And if you put the trends together – depopulation, vaccination, and euthanization – Occam’s Razor suggest that the mass euthanization of the vaccinated may be the long-term result.

Today’s HYPERGAMOUSE provides an amusing take on a very dark matter.

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The Death of Retail

Online shopping was only the first blow to retail. Mass immigration resulting in the disappearance of high trust society will be the killing blow.

Three years ago, I bet that 99 percent of my readers had never heard of ORC. Of course by now almost everyone knows that ORC stands for “organized retail crime”, and it is prompting retailers to permanently shut down stores all over the nation. Right now, retail theft is happening from coast to coast on a scale that we have never seen in our entire history. Marauding bands of looters are barging into stores, grabbing as much merchandise as they can possibly carry, and then loading it into their vehicles. Online marketplaces make it easier than ever to turn stolen goods into cash, and at this point organized retail crime has become a multi-billion dollar business. As I have repeatedly warned my readers, America is descending into lawlessness. The thin veneer of civilization that we all depend upon on a daily basis is rapidly disappearing, and if we stay on this path our society will soon be completely unrecognizable.

Every year, organized retail crime gets even worse. According to Fox Business, the number of ORC incidents in 2021 was 26.5 percent higher than in 2020…

ORC incidents soared 26.5% on average in 2021, with 81.2% of retailers surveyed reporting “somewhat more” or “much more” ORC-associated aggression and violence year-over-year, according to the survey.

Of course things are even worse here in 2022, and this is particularly true in states where shoplifting laws are very soft.

For example, in Portland some stores are often victimized “more than once a day”…

Some of the hot items are perfumes and expensive handbags. Often, stores are victimized daily and sometimes more than once a day. A local pastor whose window looks out on the local Nike store says he sees thieves running out of the store with their arms full of stolen stuff all the time. And the excellent KGW-TV story makes the point that this stolen stuff is not to feed hungry children. It is organized theft. The stuff gets sold online and in flea markets.

Needless to say, it is almost impossible to run a profitable business in such an environment, and many store owners are throwing in the towel.

But at least no one will be able to call those living in urban third world hell holes racist. And really, that’s what’s important, after all.

If you don’t keep the invaders out, they will destroy your way of life. Thus has it always been, thus will it always be. Sink the ships or suicide your society. Those are the only options.

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When Nurture Wins

This is straight-up child abuse. Literally satanic child abuse from which they will likely never recover.

Elllon Muskrat: A few years back I took my kids to a showing of The Little Mermaid at the Castro Theatre in SF. It was introduced and MCd by some drag folks. The kids just said “look at the pretty ladies” and then we watched the movie.

Dave Watson: Wait! Your children haven’t been turned into DragQueens?! Impossible!

Elllon Muskrat: Well, they have all come out as trans in the years since, but I don’t think the Little Mermaid show was the catalyst.

Never, ever, again say that God blesses America. It’s readily apparent that He hasn’t been doing that for some time now.

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