Tag: decline and fall

Et tu, Argentina?

Argentina abandons the dollar in favor of the yuan for trade with China:

Argentina will aim to pay for the bulk of its monthly imports from China in yuan rather than US dollars, Economy Minister Sergio Massa announced on Wednesday. Buenos Aires and Beijing signed a currency swap agreement last year, aimed at stemming the outflow of foreign currency from Argentina’s central bank.

China is currently Argentina’s second largest trade partner after Brazil, and the second biggest destination for Argentinian exports. Argentina’s total imports from China was around $13.5bn in 2021, according to the United Nations database on international trade.

Massa said that Buenos Aires will pay the equivalent of $1 billion in yuan for Chinese goods and services this month, with $790 million of monthly imports paid for in yuan each month thereafter. The currency swap agreement, expanded and finalized earlier this year, also allows Argentinian exporters to make settlements in yuan or dollars, to help balance the flows of foreign currencies in the central bank.

Even the neoclown Robert Kagan warned of the potential consequences for the neoliberal world order if the USA were to abuse its privileged position, which it generally avoided doing between 1945 and 2020.

The success of the order, however, also depended on the United States abiding by some basic rules. Chief among these was that it not exploit the system it dominated to gain lasting economic advantages at the expense of the other powers in the order. Put simply, it could not use its military dominance to win the economic competition against fellow members of the order, nor could it treat the economic competition as a zero-sum game and insist on always winning.

The Jungle Grows Back, Robert Kagan, 2019

The decision to weaponize the dollar in lieu of challenging Russia directly in a military context may prove to be one of the more catastrophic errors in the history of empires. Astute historians such as Victor Davis Hanson have for some time been wondering exactly when, and where, the Imperial USA’s Syracuse moment of imperial overstretch would take place; in The Father of Us All, published in 2010, VDH argued that the Iraq War was not likely to be a serious candidate for the Moment.

Athens’s disastrous 415 B.C. expedition against Sicily, the largest democracy in the Greek world, may not prefigure our war in Iraq. (A hypothetical parallel to democratic Athens’s preemptive attack on the neutral, distant, far larger, and equally democratic Syracuse in the midst of an ongoing though dormant war with Sparta would be America’s dropping its struggle with al-Qaeda to invade India).

However, it increasingly appears that the attempt to control Russia using the leash of the dollar reserve system may have marked that long-anticipated Moment, as dropping its economic neutrality and putting pressure on the rest of the participants in the global economy in order to pressure Russia into withdrawing from Crimea and the Donbass, then doubling down on that mistake by financing the Kiev regime’s war appears to have been even more devastating to the neoliberal world order than an invasion of India.

UPDATE: The Global Times expresses China’s belief that de-dollarization is not merely desirable, but inevitable.

One of the most direct reasons behind the global de-dollarization trend is that the US has been increasingly weaponizing US dollar hegemony to impose economic sanctions as well as political repression. For instance, key Russia banks have been excluded from the SWIFT system, a service that facilitates global transactions among thousands of financial institutions.

What’s perhaps more surprising – and potentially worrying for Washington – is how expensive and scarce offshore US dollars are becoming. As the US Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes hit global financial systems, an increasing amount of foreign capital flowed back to the US, leading to a global US dollar shortage. The US’ interest rate hikes and the resulting shortage of US dollars serve as another important factor driving more countries to push for a quicker pace of de-dollarization.

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US Life Expectancy Declines

So much for the myth of inevitable progress. Even the most-retarded conservatives are beginning to consider the possibility that the dirt may not be not magic.

Years of widening economic inequality, compounded by the pandemic and political storm and stress, have given Americans the impression that the country is on the wrong track. Now there’s empirical data to show just how far the country has run off the rails: Life expectancies have been falling.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported last year that life expectancy at birth fell in 2021 to its lowest level since 1996, a decline of nearly a year on average from 2020. That was after a decline by 1.8 years from 2019 to 2020, producing the worst two-year decline since 1921-23….

The factors contributing to America’s decline in life expectancies could point to a decline in its international stature.

Although wealthy countries as a group suffered a fall in longevity during the pandemic, the discrepancy between life expectancies in the U.S. and its closest cohorts has been widening for decades. In 1995, U.S. life expectancy was about six months less than those of high-income countries; by 2020 it was about three years, according to the World Bank.

In 1995, the U.S. had a commanding lead over China, which was about 5 1/2 years behind the U.S.; China then roared ahead, outstripping the U.S. in 2020, when its average life expectancy clocked in at 78.08 years, compared with America’s 77.28.

The mass vaxx campaign is going to contribute to declining life expectancies around the world, but that’s merely one of the significant factors. The fact that the USA is now a minority-European country means that its average quality of life is also going to more closely approximate the global norm.

A society is necessarily either eugenic or dysgenic. And adopting policies that are anti-eugenic is similar to adopting anti-racist policies, since societal degradation is the inevitable, mathematically-guaranteed result in either case for any society that is above average.

The wages of sin are death. And the wages of intellectual inversion are decline.

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The Inevitable Math

The astonishing thing isn’t that this was allowed to happen. We all know why it happened. The astonishing thing is that there are still Boomers who sincerely believe that the USA of 2023 is essentially the same thing as the USA of 1973. But it isn’t.

This doesn’t merely have significant implications for one’s quality of life or the political demographics or the societal infrastructure, it has massive implications for the military capabilities of the US armed forces. As the US no longer has a European military or a powerful manufacturing industry, it no longer possesses the comparative advantages it previously had.

Exactly how much its performance has been degraded is not possible to say, but the demographic changes indicate that the 2020s US military will probably not perform as well as the 1970s US military did. And the early evidence out of Afghanistan and Ukraine tends to support that hypothesis.

With regards to the fate of the country and its population, there are three possible outcomes. And none of them can be reasonably described as either positive or pleasant.

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He’s Not Wrong

Joe Biden is correct. Transgender Americans are absolutely shaping what passes for the “nation’s” diseased and adulterated soul today. And there is worse to come. It appears that God has abandoned Americans to the fate that was chosen when we permitted the overtly anti-Christian servants of Satan to enter the USA en masse and rule over us.

There is a reason the Bible refers repeatedly to deception and warns Christians against permitting themselves to be deceived. Sadly, 20th Century Americans were more concerned about being praised for welcoming those all those poor refugees and huddled masses who never done nothing to nobody.

Welcome to the Melting Pot. It’s not so nice when they turn up the heat, is it?

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If the Dollar is Their Superpower

Then their global hegemony is rapidly coming to an end:

The dollar is America’s superpower. It gives Washington unrivaled economic and political muscle. The United States can slap sanctions on countries unilaterally, freezing them out of large parts of the world economy. And when Washington spends freely, it can be certain that its debt, usually in the form of T-bills, will be bought up by the rest of the world.

Sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine combined with Washington’s increasingly confrontational approach to China have created a perfect storm in which both Russia and China are accelerating efforts to diversify away from the dollar. Their central banks are keeping less of their reserves in dollars, and most trade between them is being settled in the yuan. They are also, as Putin noted, making efforts to get other countries to follow suit…

America’s politicians have gotten used to spending seemingly without any concerns about deficits — public debt has risen almost fivefold from roughly $6.5 trillion 20 years ago to $31.5 trillion today. The Fed has solved a series of financial crashes by massively expanding its balance sheet twelvefold, from around $730 billion 20 years ago to about $8.7 trillion today. All of this only works because of the dollar’s unique status. If that wanes, America will face a reckoning like none before.

The decline of the US financial superweapon will be exacerbated by the emergence of China as a financial safe harbor, at least for those who have not spent the last decade attacking it or attempting to subvert it.

The unfolding banking crisis in the US and Europe could highlight China as a “relative safe haven,” economists at Citi said in a note seen by CNBC. The Chinese economy could see accelerated expansion this year, giving the country a “hedge” for growth while economies in the US and Europe face heightened risk of financial disruption, according to the note.

It’s going to be interesting. That’s the only thing we can know for certain. And both one’s investment and consumption should be directed toward hard assets that will hold their value regardless of price levels.

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America is not Byzantium

VDH contemplates the similarities between two dying empires:

The last generations of Byzantines had inherited a global reputation and standard of living that they themselves no longer earned. They neglected their former civic values and fought endless battles over obscure religious texts, doctrines, and vocabulary.

They did not expand their anemic army and navy. They did not reunite their scattered, Greek-speaking empire. They did not properly maintain their once life-giving walls.

Instead of earning money through their accustomed nonstop trade, the Byzantines inflated their currency and were forced to melt down the city’s inherited gold and silver fixtures.

The once canny and shrewd Byzantines grew smug and naive. Childlessness became common. Most now preferred to live outside of what had become a half-empty, often dirty, and poorly maintained city.

The difference is that America was conquered from within by foreigners who have ruled over the natives, and ruled disastrously, in their own short-sighted and self-perceived interests. But America was always doomed due to its foolish, though understandable in the circumstances, adoption of civic nationalism in the place of the real thing.

If there is one lesson to be learned from the decline and fall of the United States, it is that a nation cannot be artificially manufactured from diverse elements. There was never any need to “divide and conquer” the USA because division was built into the USA from the very start. “Show up and conquer” was sufficient.

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Do Your Part

Everyone can’t afford the Library, which is why we’re working on getting paperback and free ebook editions going. But if we all attempt to preserve human knowledge, just maybe some of it will be saved somehow. Here is how to quickly and easily obtain a current backup of Project Gutenberg. If you want to help preserve the store of human knowledge, you can back up the entirety of the Project Gutenberg collection here. You don’t need to download all the .zim files, just the most recent one in the language you want.

You’ll need to download Kiwix to read the file, which will provide you with the ability to export any epub or text file from it.

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The Crisis of Empire

The first line of Col Douglas Macgregor’s excellent article is a bit of a misnomer. America’s national power has already been leashed and broken. What we’re witnessing now is the limits of the imperial USA’s power, which have been constricted by the incompetence and shortsighted mismanagement of the mostly foreign imperial elite.

The crisis of American national power has begun. America’s economy is tipping over, and Western financial markets are quietly panicking. Imperiled by rising interest rates, mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasuries are losing their value. The market’s proverbial “vibes”—feelings, emotions, beliefs, and psychological penchants—suggest a dark turn is underway inside the American economy.

American national power is measured as much by American military capability as by economic potential and performance. The growing realization that American and European military-industrial capacity cannot keep up with Ukrainian demands for ammunition and equipment is an ominous signal to send during a proxy war that Washington insists its Ukrainian surrogate is winning.

Russian economy-of-force operations in southern Ukraine appear to have successfully ground down attacking Ukrainian forces with the minimal expenditure of Russian lives and resources. While Russia’s implementation of attrition warfare worked brilliantly, Russia mobilized its reserves of men and equipment to field a force that is several magnitudes larger and significantly more lethal than it was a year ago.

Russia’s massive arsenal of artillery systems including rockets, missiles, and drones linked to overhead surveillance platforms converted Ukrainian soldiers fighting to retain the northern edge of the Donbas into pop-up targets. How many Ukrainian soldiers have died is unknown, but one recent estimate wagers between 150,000-200,000 Ukrainians have been killed in action since the war began, while another estimates about 250,000.

Given the glaring weakness of NATO members’ ground, air, and air defense forces, an unwanted war with Russia could easily bring hundreds of thousands of Russian Troops to the Polish border, NATO’s Eastern Frontier. This is not an outcome Washington promised its European allies, but it’s now a real possibility.

In contrast to the Soviet Union’s hamfisted and ideologically driven foreign policymaking and execution, contemporary Russia has skillfully cultivated support for its cause in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. The fact that the West’s economic sanctions damaged the U.S. and European economies while turning the Russian ruble into one of the international system’s strongest currencies has hardly enhanced Washington’s global standing.

Biden’s policy of forcibly pushing NATO to Russia’s borders forged a strong commonality of security and trade interests between Moscow and Beijing that is attracting strategic partners in South Asia like India, and partners like Brazil in Latin America. The global economic implications for the emerging Russo-Chinese axis and their planned industrial revolution for some 3.9 billion people in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are profound.

In sum, Washington’s military strategy to weaken, isolate, or even destroy Russia is a colossal failure and the failure puts Washington’s proxy war with Russia on a truly dangerous path. To press on, undeterred in the face of Ukraine’s descent into oblivion, ignores three metastasizing threats: 1. Persistently high inflation and rising interest rates that signal economic weakness. (The first American bank failure since 2020 is a reminder of U.S. financial fragility.) 2. The threat to stability and prosperity inside European societies already reeling from several waves of unwanted refugees/migrants. 3. The threat of a wider European war.

America was finally defeated once and for all in 1965. Everything that has happened since was literally a new imperial order, and it is the new imperial order that is jeopardized, not the conquered nation that will likely benefit from the collapse of the empire.

They also know that since 1965 Washington led them into a series of failed military interventions that severely weakened American political, economic, and military power.

Washington. The seat of empire.

Far too many Americans believe they have had no real national leadership since January 21, 2021.

They haven’t had it for a lot longer than that. Since at least 1965, in fact.

This confusion of America with its imperial elite notwithstanding, Macgregor’s piece is an astute one that accurately chronicles the challenges presently overwhelming the empire. And the empire is neither willing nor able to meet those challenges, because the weapons of influence, namely, money and media, are unable to effectively defeat the weapons of power, which are industrial capacity and military might.

Influence can only defeat power if morale is sufficiently lacking. But both the Russians and the Chinese collectively possess a formidable will to survive, which is why they will likely succeed where a complacent and degenerate America failed.

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The Problem, Not the Answer

Voting Republican is not going to solve any – and I mean literally zero – of the growing problems facing a USA in deep decline. I described them as one faction of the “bi-factional ruling party” nearly 20 years ago and I see absolutely zero need to alter that description. They are arguably even more responsible for destroying the USA than the Democrats.

Republicans in the Idaho legislature are looking to approve a resolution that would ask President Joe Biden, as well as Congress, to flood the United States labor market with more foreign workers as well as to grant an amnesty that would give green cards to millions of illegal aliens holding American jobs.

A resolution, authored by State Sen. Jim Guthrie (R) and cosponsored by State Sens. Treg Bernt (R), Linda Hartgen (R), and Chuck Winder (R), asks the federal government to stem the flow of illegal immigration by requiring E-Verify for employers, among other things, while also expanding the number of foreign workers business can import to take mostly working class, blue-collar jobs.

The goal, the resolution states, ought to be to fill U.S. jobs with a constant stream of foreign workers. Amnesty, which would reward illegal aliens with work permits and green cards, should be part of any such legislation, the Republicans write in the resolution.

Yes, the Democrats are evil and stupid. But the Republicans are stupid and evil. Neither party is even remotely interested in defending the national interest of Americans.

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