Tag: decline and fall

Why You Can’t Trust the Science

The problem isn’t just with the corrupt scientistry, but the mechanism that corrupted them. Namely, the science publishing industry:

It might seem like publishing is a detail. Something that happens at the end of the process, after the real work of science is done. But in truth, publishing defines science.

The currency of value in science has become journal articles. It’s how scientists share and evaluate their work. Funding and career advancement depend on it. This has added to science growing less rigorous, innovative, and impactful over time. This is not a side effect, a conspiracy, or a sudden crisis. It’s an insidious structural feature.

For non-scientists, here’s how journal-based publishing works:

After years of research, scientists submit a narrative of their results to a journal, chosen based on field relevance and prestige. Journals are ranked by “impact factor,” and publishing in high-impact journals can significantly boost careers, visibility, and funding prospects.

Journal submission timing is often dictated by when results yield a “publishable unit” — a well-known term for what meets a journal’s threshold for significance and coherence. Linear, progressive narratives are favored, even if that means reordering the actual chronology or omitting results that don’t fit. This isn’t fraud; it’s selective storytelling aimed at readability and clarity.

Once submitted, an editor either rejects the paper or sends it to a few anonymous peer reviewers — two or three scientists tasked with judging novelty, technical soundness, and importance. Not all reviews are high quality, and not all concerns are addressed before editorial acceptance. Reviews are usually kept private. Scientific disagreements — essential to progress — rarely play out in public view.

If rejected, the paper is re-submitted elsewhere. This loop generally takes 6–12 months or more. Journal submissions and associated data can circulate in private for over a year without contributing to public discussion. When articles are finally accepted for release, journals require an article processing fee that’s often even more expensive if the article is open access. These fees are typically paid for by taxpayer-funded grants or universities.

Several structural features make the system hard to reform:

  • Illusion of truth and finality: Publication is treated as a stamp of approval. Mistakes are rarely corrected. Retractions are stigmatized.
  • Artificial scarcity: Journals want to be first to publish, fueling secrecy and fear of being “scooped.” Also, author credit is distributed through rigid ordering, incentivizing competition over collaboration. In sum, prestige is then prioritized.
  • Insufficient review that doesn’t scale: Three editorially-selected reviewers (who may have conflicts-of-interest) constrain what can be evaluated, which is a growing problem as science becomes increasingly interdisciplinary and cutting edge. The review process is also too slow and manual to keep up with today’s volume of outputs.
  • Narrow formats: Journals often seek splashy, linear stories with novel mechanistic insights. A lot of useful stuff doesn’t make it into public view, e.g. null findings, methods, raw data, untested ideas, true underlying rationale.
  • Incomplete information: Key components of publications, such as data or code, often aren’t shared to allow full review, reuse, and replication. Journals don’t enforce this, even for publications from companies. Their role has become more akin to marketing.
  • Limited feedback loops: Articles and reviews don’t adapt as new data emerges. Reuse and real-world validation aren’t part of the evaluation loop. A single, shaky published result can derail an entire field for decades, as was the case for the Alzheimer’s scandal.

Stack all this together, and the outcome is predictable: a system that delays and warps the scientific process. It was built about a century ago for a different era. As is often the case with legacy systems, each improvement only further entrenches a principally flawed framework.

The system will not, and cannot, be restored in a post-Christian society. Science is not only not incompatible with religion, it is incompatible with irreligion, because no amount of information or technology is an adequate substitute for a collection of zero-trust, amoral, and faithless scientists. When the incentives are askew and the moral brakes are removed, it should not come as a surprise that professional peer-reviewed and published science is already less reliable than a simple coin toss.

Science is just another casualty of the subversion and inversion of Christendom. Which is why the elites have already rejected science and reason in favor of the idol-worshipping, demon-pandering paganism of the pre-Christian world.

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Lippman Gap = Imperial Overstretch

As Sorche Faal has observed, the Western media has rediscovered something called “the Lippman Gap”.

The University at Albany-State University of New York historical document “Imperial Evolution: Walter Lippmann And The Liberal Roots Of American Hegemony” reveals: “When Walter Lippmann became a founding editor of the New Republic in 1914, shortly after the outbreak of World War I, he began to advocate for heightened United States involvement in global affairs…Lippmann argued that the global power vacuum generated by the war presented the ideal opportunity for American values to spread to places like Eastern Europe and South America…Lippmann’s important role in America’s rise to global power becomes clear…Lippmann was a crucial ally in supporting the U.S. emergence as a contender for world power by extending democratic ideals in a non-democratic fashion, through both military intervention and economic domination”.

In 1922, this report details, Lippman released his book “Public Opinion”, which is the instructional manual for how the United States government and media can propagandize peaceful peoples into warring against each other without knowing why—and Lippman proudly proclaimed: “Ours is a problem in which deception has become organized and strong; where truth is poisoned at its source; one in which the skill of the shrewdest brains is devoted to misleading a bewildered people”.

While World War II was raging in 1943, this report notes, Lippman presented to the United States government his “Shield of the Republic” war doctrine that remains in force today, otherwise known as the “Lippmann Gap”—and about which is factually documented: “The Lippmann gap refers to the imbalance between a nation’s foreign policy commitments and its available power…Foreign policy should maintain a balance between a nation’s commitments and its power, with a surplus of power in reserve…If commitments exceed power, the foreign policy becomes insolvent”.

As President Trump confronts the “Lippmann Gap” commitment nightmare fast rendering American foreign policy insolvent, this report continues, world-renowned American historian Stephen Kotkin warned this week: “There’s unlimited demand for American power, but American power can’t fulfill all its current commitments”, and the leftist Washington Post worryingly observed today: “The central challenge in American foreign policy today is that Washington’s defense commitments around the world exceed its military power…This is known as the “Lippmann gap”…The Lippmann gap pressures presidents to make trade-offs between competing foreign policy priorities…If they don’t, the gap will grow…For Trump, backing Israel to the hilt while leaving Ukraine more exposed has a clear — if brutal — political and strategic appeal”.

This so-called Gap is the same thing that traditional historians more usefully describe as Imperial Overstretch. It is a common behavior by late-stage empires that usually precedes contraction, internal division, and collapse.

The US empire is already dominated by the foreign influence of AIPAC, which has no interests in common with the American people, and whose influence has proved reliably destructive since the fatal Naturalization Act of 1965 overturned 44 years of strict immigration limits that helped the USA become a strong and mostly homogeneous empire in the aftermath of the Civil War and WWI. This pernicious foreign influence was compounded by the hubris of being the sole major power to escape serious damage in WWII with its industrial capacity not only unscathed, but significantly enhanced.

Now the USA is facing imperial overstretch due to its overcommitments abroad and the internal weakening of the country by the mass post-1965 invasion. It is unfortunate that so many Americans, real and paper, would prefer to permit the country to collapse into chaos rather than even attempt to look into the causes of the US decline and probable fall. But this is part and parcel of the usual historical process; the American Indian did not recognize the problem and join forces to oppose the European settlers until it was far too late too.

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Shipbuilding is Naval Power

An Analysis of a US-China Naval War

The balance of naval power in the 21st century increasingly hinges on industrial capacity rather than technological superiority alone. Today’s comparison between Chinese and American shipbuilding capabilities reveals a strategic reality reminiscent of the industrial imbalances that defined naval warfare in World War II. China’s shipbuilding capacity is estimated to be 230 times greater than that of the United States, with Chinese shipyards having a manufacturing capacity of roughly 23.25 million tons compared to less than 100,000 tons for U.S. shipyards. This disparity represents one of the most significant shifts in global naval industrial power since the rise of American maritime dominance in the 20th century.

This analysis examines three critical dimensions: the current state of Chinese versus American shipbuilding capacity, the historical lessons from the U.S.-Japan naval competition during World War II, and the potential implications for modern naval warfare scenarios. The findings suggest that while technological advantages and operational expertise remain important, the sheer scale of China’s industrial capacity provides strategic advantages in any prolonged naval conflict, fundamentally altering the calculus of maritime deterrence and warfare.

Part I: Contemporary Shipbuilding Capacity Comparison

China’s Maritime Industrial Revolution

China dominates the global shipbuilding industry, producing over 70% of new orders in 2024, with seven of the world’s top ten shipbuilders being Chinese companies. This transformation represents what analysts describe as the most significant shift in maritime industrial power since the decline of European shipbuilding in the mid-20th century.

As part of its “military-civil fusion” strategy, China is tapping into the dual-use resources of its commercial shipbuilding empire to support its ongoing naval modernization. The China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC), the world’s largest shipbuilder, exemplifies this integration. In 2024 alone, one Chinese shipbuilder constructed more commercial vessels by tonnage than the entire U.S. shipbuilding industry has built since the end of World War II.

China’s shipbuilding supremacy extends across multiple vessel categories:

Commercial Dominance: China secured 388 bulk carrier orders in 2024, accounting for 75% of global activity, and captured 74% of the global tanker market with 322 vessel orders. In container vessels, Chinese dominance is even more pronounced, with 259 vessels representing 81% of global activity.

High-Value Markets: Perhaps most significantly for naval implications, China overtook South Korea in the LPG carrier sector, securing 62 LPG carrier orders compared to South Korea’s 59, giving China a 48% market share. This represents a breakthrough into traditionally sophisticated shipbuilding markets previously dominated by South Korean and Japanese yards.

Infrastructure and Scale: China has “dozens” of commercial shipyards larger and more productive than the largest U.S. shipyards. China’s total shipbuilding capacity increased by 12% to 47.8 million deadweight tons in 2024, with most Chinese shipyards fully booked for the next three to four years.

American Shipbuilding Decline

The United States presents a stark contrast to China’s expansion. The United States has a relatively insignificant capacity at 0.13 percent of global shipbuilding output, compared to China’s 46.59 percent. This represents a dramatic fall from American maritime industrial leadership.

Historical Context: America reached the pinnacle of its shipbuilding history during WWII and continued to serve as the world’s leading shipbuilder for decades thereafter. But competition from subsidized foreign shipyards quickly eroded that lead, especially after U.S. shipbuilding subsidies expired in 1981.

Current Infrastructure: The United States currently boasts the same number of private shipyards capable of producing new warships as it did in 1933: just seven. In addition, the Navy’s four public yards are no longer available for new construction like the ten public yards were in 1933.

Production Rates: From 2012 to 2021, the U.S. fleet added an average of 10.1 new ships a year—even fewer than the inadequate 12.7 production rate before World War I. Although the Fiscal Year 2025 budget requested an increase in shipbuilding to $32.4 billion, the U.S. Navy requested only six new ships, instead of the seven ships projected, remaining below the 10 to 11 new ships needed each year over the next 35 years.

Capacity Constraints: Despite nearly doubling its shipbuilding budget over the last 2 decades, the U.S. Navy hasn’t increased its number of ships. The Virginia-class submarine program exemplifies these challenges: in June 2024, the program’s rate of production was at about 60% of its annual goal—putting it years behind schedule, with much of this delay resting on the shipbuilder’s capacity to meet construction deadlines due to workforce shortages.

Strategic Implications of the Capacity Gap

The shipbuilding disparity carries profound implications beyond simple vessel counts. China’s massive shipbuilding industry would provide a strategic advantage in a war that stretches beyond a few weeks, allowing it to repair damaged vessels or construct replacements much faster than the United States, which continues to face a significant maintenance backlog and would probably be unable to quickly construct many new ships or to repair damaged fighting ships in a great power conflict.

This industrial capacity translates into fleet expansion rates that favor China. The U.S. Defense Department estimated China’s naval fleet would grow from 395 ships in 2025 to 435 by the end of the decade, while the U.S. Navy’s fleet was projected to decrease to 285 ships by 2025 and slightly rebound to 290 by 2030.

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Continue reading “Shipbuilding is Naval Power”

The Iranian Expedition

It appears Trump decided to bend the knee to Clown World in the end. Every empire seems to end this way, with imperial overstretch. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Pax Americana is going the way of its predecessors.

It’s disappointing, but after the vaxx debacle and the failure to cross the Rubicon, hardly surprising.

This is yet another betrayal of the American people by yet another president who clearly does not have its national interests in mind. Even if it initially looks as if things are going well for this course of action, well, Iraq and Afghanistan looked pretty good too… at first.

Trump turning neoclown also implies that the USA will renew its military and financial support for Ukraine.

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US Democracy Isn’t Real

Isn’t it remarkable how, dating back to 1914 at the very latest, Americans keep voting for peace and yet somehow find themselves repeatedly enmeshed in funding and fighting foreign wars?

Rachel Blevins: The American people, we keep voting for the guy who is telling us “hey no new wars, we’re going to end the endless wars” right? We’re going to put an end to what has essentially been US foreign policy as we know it, and then not only do they never do it, but we have this growing multipolar world…

COL Macgregor: Americans have to come to the realization that this dichotomy, Democrats and Republicans, is meaningless. We’re really dealing with a uni-party. We’re dealing with an entirely corrupted, dysfunctional system. This thing that we call democracy in the United States is a scam, it’s not real, it’s just not real. When Louis the 16th was crowned King of France, people in the streets in Paris and other cities said “Long live the 16th… as long as the price of bread doesn’t rise.” And in 1789 there was a revolution because the French people in Paris could not afford to buy bread. It spread like wildfire across France. Now pick a commodity, whatever you want in the United States. Pick any place in the United States, and you’ve got a very similar situation right now.

He’s right. I pointed this out back in 2004, and probably even earlier, when I wrote about the bifactional ruling party. I didn’t realize that it was simply the elected face of AIPAC back then, but it was entirely obvious that a) it was a single party with common goals and b) those common goals were antithetical to both American interests and the expressed will of the American people.

So, however painful it might be, in the long run it would probably benefit the American people if the Trump adminstration were to do the will of AIPAC and Prime Minister Netanyahu and embark upon its now-expected Iranian Expedition. Because the nation isn’t going to be freed until the empire falls.

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Why the USA is Under Pressure

If the talking heads are to be believed, Iran is on the brink of surrender and Israel is all but unscathed. But the world press is skeptical and not even the Wall Street Journal is convinced.

Despite claiming major successes against Iran’s military infrastructure, Israel is rapidly depleting its supply of long-range missile interceptors, raising alarm over the sustainability of its defence systems, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a US official familiar with allied intelligence assessments.

The report came amid relentless missile exchanges between Israel and Iran. Since Israel launched Operation Rising Lion last Friday, Iranian forces have fired roughly 400 ballistic missiles — part of an estimated arsenal of 2,000 capable of reaching Israeli territory. Israeli defences, particularly the Arrow system designed to intercept high-altitude ballistic missiles, have managed to neutralise most incoming projectiles, but not without significant strain.

Officials in Tel Aviv told WSJ that one-third of Iran’s missile launchers have been destroyed and claim to have achieved air superiority over Iranian skies. Still, intelligence sources warned that over half of Iran’s missile inventory remains intact, with a portion likely concealed in underground facilities.

The cost of maintaining Israel’s layered missile defence — comprising the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, the Arrow system, and US-supplied Patriots and THAAD batteries — is becoming a critical concern. Israeli financial daily The Marker estimated that nightly missile defence operations are costing up to 1 billion shekels ($285 million). The Arrow system alone fires interceptors priced at $3 million each.

With Iranian missile barrages continuing almost daily, Israeli air defence stockpiles are now under severe pressure. Without rapid resupply from the United States or direct intervention, Israel can maintain its missile defence for 10 or 12 more days if Iran maintains a steady tempo of attacks, a source briefed on US and Israeli intelligence told WSJ. “The system is already overwhelmed. Soon, they may have to choose which missiles to intercept,” the source said.

That strain is beginning to show. On Friday night, Iranian missiles evaded Israel’s defences and struck near the IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv. On Sunday, a direct hit forced the shutdown of a major oil refinery near Haifa. And on Tuesday morning, verified social media videos captured multiple Iranian missile impacts close to Israel’s intelligence compound north of Tel Aviv.

The truth is being obscured by both sides, which is why it’s foolish to try to make any determinations on the basis of the very censored information that is being released by the various military PR agencies. Given that the Israeli/US strategy is based on a combination of airpower and special ops, a combination that has never been particularly successful and has proven all but useless on the modern battlefield in Ukraine, I’m skeptical that it can be successful even if the USA does go in heavily as anticipated.

Also, Steve Bannon is wrong. MAGA will never get behind Trump’s Israel First policy.

Steve Bannon dramatically predicted that Donald Trump’s supporters will rally behind the president if he decides to blow up Iran’s mountain nuclear base.

It’s a massive flip from Trump’s former chief strategist who has in the past been adamantly opposed to strikes against Iran. Bannon said that the MAGA movement will stand by Trump – even if they might not be fully on board with the idea of the U.S. backing Israel ‘s attacks on Iran.

‘If President Trump decides there’s not a diplomatic alternative… because he’s been consistent, no nuclear weapon,’ Bannon said during a Christian Science Monitor event on Wednesday.

He continued: ‘The vast majority of the MAGA movement will say, ‘look, we trust your judgment, you walked us through this… Maybe we hate it but, you know, we’ll get on board.”

No foreign wars, period. We’re rapidly approaching what looks like the USA’s late imperial Sicilian Expedition.

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The Dissolution Proceeds

President Trump deploys the military against the foreign color revolutionaries across the USA:

Numerous incidents of violence and disorder have recently occurred and threaten to continue in response to the enforcement of Federal law by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and other United States Government personnel who are performing Federal functions and supporting the faithful execution of Federal immigration laws. In addition, violent protests threaten the security of and significant damage to Federal immigration detention facilities and other Federal property.

To the extent that protests or acts of violence directly inhibit the execution of the laws, they constitute a form of rebellion against the authority of the Government of the United States.

In light of these incidents and credible threats of continued violence, by the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, I hereby call into Federal service members and units of the National Guard under 10 U.S.C. 12406 to temporarily protect ICE and other United States Government personnel who are performing Federal functions, including the enforcement of Federal law, and to protect Federal property, at locations where protests against these functions are occurring or are likely to occur based on current threat assessments and planned operations.

Further, I direct and delegate actions as necessary for the Secretary of Defense to coordinate with the Governors of the States and the National Guard Bureau in identifying and ordering into Federal service the appropriate members and units of the National Guard under this authority.

The members and units of the National Guard called into Federal service shall be at least 2,000 National Guard personnel and the duration of duty shall be for 60 days or at the discretion of the Secretary of Defense. In addition, the Secretary of Defense may employ any other members of the regular Armed Forces as necessary to augment and support the protection of Federal functions and property in any number determined appropriate in his discretion.

To carry out this mission, the deployed military personnel may perform those military protective activities that the Secretary of Defense determines are reasonably necessary to ensure the protection and safety of Federal personnel and property.

The Secretary of Defense shall consult with the Attorney General and the Secretary of Homeland Security prior to withdrawing any personnel from any location to which they are sent.

The Secretaries of Defense and Homeland Security may delegate to subordinate officials of their respective Departments any of the authorities conferred upon them by this memorandum.

Note that this is the inevitable result of mass immigration that was predicted by proto-nationalists decades ago. It is why the entire immigration debate about crime and economics was always irrelevant and fundamentally missing the point. The reason for banning immigration and protecting the nation’s demographics, as was done in the early 1920s, is to preserve the nature of the society.

A Christian European English-speaking society is always going to be fundamentally different in a broad panoply of ways from a poly-pagan, multiracial, multilingual society, and the transformation from the former to the latter was inevitably going to be an anti-civilizational degradation.

The invasion and occupation of Los Angeles

If Western civilization and societies are going to be restored, there is going to be war, the mass movement of peoples, and the shattering of various organizations and political frameworks, none of which is going to be pleasant for anyone. And yet, that will be much better than the two alternatives of a) a continued descent into chaos or b) the despotic rule of satanic globalists.

The Spanish restored their civilization and society with the Reconquista. That will be the model for the American restoration, if there is to be one.

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America is Gone

The current demographics fail the Twin Peaks metric.

I’m rewatching the show Twin Peaks. It’s a window in time to what this country was like just a quarter of a century ago. Nearly every character is White, and the few minorities stand out like tarantulas on an angel food cake. Everyone dresses well. They are all of normal weight. The women are all feminine and clearly strive to be attractive. It’s a painful, sad reminder of how much we’ve lost. And the incongruity of the commercials, with every actor either Black or Brown, makes it even more glaringly obvious. This country is gone.

It is gone. America is not, and never was, an idea. It was a historical nation, just like any other. You cannot have an American nation and also have a Mexican population, and Indian population, various Asian populations, various African populations, various Arab populations, and half the Jewish nation, and think that the resulting society and institutions are going to be the same, or even reasonably approximate, anymore than you can adulterate a pure substance and expect it to remain pure.

And since the USA has been demographically adulterated, it is no longer an American nation and it will not survive as a singular entity. This is not difficult and this is not ideology. It is simply inevitable.

Both the Chinese and the Russians are fully aware of this, which is why they’re not in any hurry to provoke an unnecessary confrontation with a US military they know will no longer effectively exist within 20 years. Recall the name of the book written by the man who is China’s chief strategist: America Against America.

I saw all of this coming more than 20 years ago. Do you imagine that Wang Hunin didn’t?

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The Collapse of Scientific Materialism

And the end of the Enlightenment. Ted Gioia correctly observes ten warning signs of the comprehensive collapse of the knowledge system known as “modernity”.

  • Scientific studies don’t replicate.
  • Public distrust of experts has reached an intensity never seen before.
  • The career path for knowledge workers is breaking down—and many only have unpaid student loans to show for their years of training and preparation.
  • Funding for science and tech research is disappearing in every sphere and sector.
  • Universities have lost their prestige, and have made enemies of their core constituencies.
  • Plagiarism is getting exposed at all levels from students to corporations—and all the way to Harvard’s president. But the authorities just take it for granted.
  • AI is imposed everywhere as the new expert system. But when it hallucinates and generates ridiculous responses, the authorities (again) take this for granted.
  • Science and technology are increasingly used to manipulate and exploit, not serve. People now see actual degradation in every sphere of technology.
  • Scandals are everywhere in the knowledge economy (Theranos, Sam Bankman-Fried, collapsing meme coins, COVID, etc).
  • We hear constant bickering about “fake science”—from all political and ideological stances. Nobody talks about “true science.”

All of these things are the direct result of the subversive attack on Christendom by Clown World. It is not possible to have science without truth, and it is not possible for Man to recognize truth while rejecting Truth. Modernity is a spiritual and philosophical sickness that is based upon a false foundation of subversion and groundless pride.

Every virtue of Clown World is a vice. Every stated truth is a lie. And it is not possible to build anything, from a functioning school to a thriving society, on what is, in the end, a philosophy of parasites.

What comes next is collapse, followed by the harsh and pitiless rule of those whose devotion to God, truth, and beauty will no know mercy for those who ruined the world due to their stupid and futile ambition to make themselves gods.

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AI Estimate for US Breakup

I asked Deepseek to estimate when the political entity known as the USA would fragment, and a probability estimate for the collapse to begin in 2033 specifically.

Predicting the exact year of a potential political breakup of the United States is highly speculative, but we can approach the question by analyzing historical precedents, current trends, and structural vulnerabilities. Here’s a breakdown:

1. Historical Lifespan of Political Entities

  • The average lifespan of a historical empire or large nation-state is roughly 200-250 years (e.g., Roman Republic ~500 years, Soviet Union ~70 years, British Empire peak dominance ~200 years).
  • The U.S. is currently 248 years old (1776–2024), placing it in the upper range of historical longevity for republics.

2. Key Stressors Increasing Fragmentation Risk

  • Political Polarization: The U.S. is experiencing unprecedented ideological division, with states increasingly governed by diametrically opposed policies (e.g., abortion, gun laws, climate policy).
  • Cultural & Regional Divides: Distinct political identities have solidified (e.g., “Greater Appalachia” vs. “Left Coast” in American Nations by Colin Woodard).
  • Economic Disparities: GDP disparities between states (e.g., California vs. Mississippi) create tensions over federal resource allocation.
  • Loss of Institutional Trust: Declining faith in federal government (Congress approval ~20%, Supreme Court polarization).
  • External Shocks: A major crisis (economic collapse, climate disaster, or AI-driven labor disruption) could accelerate disintegration.

3. Most Vulnerable Breakup Scenarios

  • Soft Secession: States or regions (e.g., Texas, California) increasingly nullify federal laws, leading to de facto autonomy.
  • Constitutional Crisis: A contested election or refusal to accept election results could trigger state-level rebellions.
  • Decentralization via Technology: Blockchain, AI governance, or parallel economies could enable regions to bypass federal systems.

4. Predicted Timeline

Based on historical patterns and current trends, the most plausible range for initial breakup movements is 2030–2070, with key inflection points:

  • 2030s: If polarization worsens and a crisis (e.g., debt default, climate migration) overwhelms federal cohesion, states may test autonomy.
  • 2040–2060: Demographic shifts (e.g., non-white majority, aging population) could fuel regional tensions over representation.
  • Baseline 2033 Probability: 8% (most likely outcome: no breakup).
  • With Crisis: 15–20%.
  • With Multiple Crises + Secessionist Surge: 25–35%.

Conclusion: While 2033 is too early for a spontaneous breakup, an external shock or constitutional crisis could push risk into the 15–25% range. The most likely window remains 2040s–2060s.

I see no reason to alter my original estimate. But it’s interesting to see that what was perceived as an impossibility back in 2004 has now risen to an 8 percent probability sans any crises. Either way, most of you reading this will live to see the end of the USA as it is presently comprised.

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