Tag: China

A Wargame in Washington

This may be the only time I have ever regretted not becoming a Congressman. This weekend, the House Ways and Means Committee played a wargame simulating a US-China war over Taiwan.

It’s April 22, 2027, and 72 hours into a first-strike Chinese attack on Taiwan and the U.S. military response. Already, the toll on all sides is staggering.

It was a war game, but one with a serious purpose and high-profile players: members of the House select committee on China. The conflict unfolded on Risk board game-style tabletop maps and markers under a giant gold chandelier in the House Ways and Means Committee room.

The exercise explored American diplomatic, economic and military options if the United States and China were to reach the brink of war over Taiwan, a self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own. The exercise played out one night last week and was observed by The Associated Press. It was part of the committee’s in-depth review of U.S. policies toward China as lawmakers, especially in the Republican-led House, focus on tensions with President Xi Jinping’s government.

In the war game, Beijing’s missiles and rockets cascade down on Taiwan and on U.S. forces as far away as Japan and Guam. Initial casualties include hundreds, possibly thousands, of U.S. troops. Taiwan’s and China’s losses are even higher.

Discouragingly for Washington, alarmed and alienated allies in the war game leave Americans to fight almost entirely alone in support of Taiwan.

In the war game, lawmakers played the blue team, in the role of National Security Council advisers. Their directive from their (imaginary) president: Deter a Chinese takeover of Taiwan if possible, defeat it if not. Experts for the Center for a New American Security think tank, whose research includes war-gaming possible conflicts using realistic scenarios and unclassified information, played the red team.

In the exercise, it all kicks off with opposition lawmakers in Taiwan talking about independence.

With the think tank’s defense program director Stacie Pettyjohn narrating, angry Chinese officials respond by heaping unacceptable demands on Taiwan. Meanwhile, China’s military moves invasion-capable forces into position. Steps such as bringing in blood supplies for treating troops suggest this is no ordinary military exercise.

Ultimately, China imposes a de facto blockade on Taiwan, intolerable for an island that produces more than 60% of the world’s semiconductors, as well as other high-tech gear.

One hopes that the wargame’s designers made it real enough to teach the politicians that a war with China over Taiwan is actually less winnable than Ukraine. The basic concept of a “regional power” necessarily entails not interfering with that power in its region-of-control.

The fact that the wargame did not culminate in a US victory, unlike the previous wargames by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, is a good sign that it had at least some connection to the actual situation. But the fact that one of the lessons they took from the exercise concerned “diplomacy” and “the lack of direct, immediate leader-to-leader crisis communication” is dangerous, because a) there is no amount of diplomacy or talk-talk that is going to dissuade the Chinese and b) it means the politicians are still hoping to find some sort of painless Smart Boy solution that does not exist.

China fully expects reunification by 2030. I would not be surprised if it takes place sooner than that, and more or less peacefully, given the absolute lunacy of Clown World’s latest ideas for trying to deter the Chinese from their top strategic priority.

The latest remarks by the EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell, who called for European navies to patrol the Taiwan Straits, caused huge controversy on Sunday as some Chinese observers said the comments are “extremely dangerous” and signal “a retrogression” of the EU’s stance on the Taiwan question following the recent G7 meeting during which the US tried to pressure its allies to take a tougher position on the matter.

European navies should patrol the disputed Taiwan Straits, Borrell wrote in an article published in the French newspaper Journal Du Dimanche, saying that the Chinese island concerns the EU economically, commercially and technologically, according to media reports on Sunday. He called for European navies to patrol the Taiwan Straits to “show Europe’s commitment to freedom of navigation” in this crucial area.

Call of top EU diplomat for European navies to patrol the Taiwan Straits ‘very dangerous’, Global Times

I really don’t think a resort to European gunboat diplomacy is a wise idea when China is actively seeking vengeance for its “Century of Humiliation”. Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad.

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The Failure of the Materialist Model

Those who blame every form of evil and insanity on “corporate greed” will find it very difficult to explain why Clown World is so willing to sacrifice the US and European economies and destroy corporate profits on behalf of Ukraine and Taiwan:

President Joe Biden will stop at nothing to protect America against security threats posed by China, even if it means damaging the US economy, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has claimed.

“National security is of paramount importance in our relationship with China,” Yellen said during a speech in Washington in Wednesday. She gave the example of blocking China from obtaining certain technologies, adding, “We will not compromise on these concerns, even when they force trade-offs with our economic interests.”

It’s evident that China and Russia are leading the charge against Clown World’s satanic hegemony, and that more and more countries are showing signs of following their lead. This is a spiritual war between the global satanists and the nations, not an economic war between rival sets of materialists, which is why all of the secular and materialist analysts are completely off every time they make a prediction or offer an explanation for why things are happening.

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There is No Thucydides Trap

And WWIII has already begun, so Ron Unz is incorrect to imagine that the lunacies of the neocons have saved the USA from the inevitable war with China et al.

The reality is that over the last year the Neocon-orchestrated war against Russia has collapsed any American hopes of forming a strong anti-China coalition.

For generations, India has had a troubled relationship with China and just a couple of years ago a bitter border skirmish had prompted a national ban on TikTok. But India and Russia had been strong allies throughout the Cold War and most of India’s military equipment is still Russian, while it has also benefitted from a very lucrative trade in refining and selling sanctioned Russian oil. So India has now clearly moved towards the Russia-China bloc.

In recent years, China has become the largest market for Saudi oil, while Russia is the other leading member of the crucial OPEC+ cartel. With both those countries joined together in a tight embrace, a Saudi shift away from its longstanding American alliance was hardly so surprising, but it still generated shockwaves.

Japan’s energy needs have led it to begin importing Russian oil despite the Western campaign of sanctions, so even our strongest ally in the Far East may be starting to reconsider its options.

In his 2014 analysis, Mearsheimer had logically presented Russia, India, and Japan as the three most important members of the balancing coalition that America would create against China, but we have now lost two or possibly all three of those countries.

The First World War lasted so long and cost so many millions of lives because the two contending coalitions were evenly matched, with the rising power of Germany so immensely strong that an alliance of the next three European powers—Britain, Russia, and France—could barely fight it to a draw over four years, and only American intervention finally turned the tide at the end. As Niall Ferguson cogently argued in The Pity of War, a swift German victory would have essentially resulted in the creation of the EU a century earlier and with negligible bloodshed.

But if the British government of the time had been so mad as to deliberately provoke a conflict with Russia on the eve of that war, thereby driving the Czar into the arms of his German cousin, the resulting realignment would have ensured a quick victory for the Kaiser, or more likely a German-led coalition too strong to even be opposed.

As envisioned by Mearsheimer, an America allied with Russia, India, Japan, and the NATO countries would have constituted a better than even global match for China, thereby allowing a highly aggressive American policy in the South China Sea. But Neocon blunders have now produced an entirely different correlation of forces, one so unfavorable to our own country that any armed conflict has become much less likely.

In his book, Allison considered a long list of geopolitical transitions over the last 500 years, and one of the few that avoided any bloodshed occurred when American power surpassed that of Britain early in the twentieth century. As he tells the story, by the time the British government considered challenging American dominance in the Western Hemisphere, our country had already grown too powerful to resist and their military leaders vetoed the idea. Lord Salisbury, the British Prime Minister, later wistfully reflected that if his country had intervened in the Civil War decades earlier and helped split the U.S. into rival, hostile nations, matters might have later played out very differently.

In similar manner, I think the developments of the last year have fostered the growth of a China-aligned global coalition far too powerful for America to directly confront, with even our subservient military leaders probably recognizing that reality.

Ron Unz is a smart and reasonably well-read individual. But, first of all, there is no such thing as a “Thucydides Trap”. It’s nothing more than a term coined by a Clown World pseudointellectual designed to capture the media’s attention and make other pseudos feel smart when stating the obvious, and it doesn’t even make sense, as anyone who compares the positions of Athens-Sparta to USA-China will immediately recognize.

“The front of the paperback edition was packed with a remarkable ten pages of glowing endorsements by a long list of the West’s most prestigious public figures and intellectuals, ranging from Joe Biden to Henry Kissinger to Gen. David Petraeus to Klaus Schwab.”

The “Thucydides Trap” is just another form of historical squid ink meant to obscure the observable patterns of the Empire That Never Ended from those capable of recognizing them. The only utility of the term is that one knows better than to take seriously anyone using it.

Second, China has been at war with the USA since 1999. It has been at war with Clown World since 2015. The fact that this war has been “unrestricted”, to use the Chinese word, rather than “hot” is irrelevant with regards to the possibility that the war might be avoided. But war that has already begun cannot, by definition, be avoided.

The historical truth is that empires always end. But other than a vague sense of discomfort, anomie, and being past the peak glory days, the citizens of the empire seldom realize that the imperial age has ended until it is long gone.

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Why Mexico Turned to China

After turning a blind eye to the Mexican invasion of the USA for the last 40 years, Republicans now want to invade Mexico:

US Republicans are increasingly warming to the idea of waging war against Mexico’s powerful drug cartels, according to Politico, which spoke to several lawmakers in the party about the controversial idea.

Former president Donald Trump is eager to send “special forces” south of the border to take out the cartels, according to Rolling Stone, whose sources claimed the 2024 Republican frontrunner was asking for “battle plans” to engage traffickers. Trump, they said, has been complaining about “missed opportunities of his first term” and is surrounded by people “who want fewer missed opportunities in a second Trump presidency.”

But the ex-president is far from alone inside his party. Republican congressmen Dan Crenshaw and Mike Waltz are pushing legislation that would seek an Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) targeting the cartels, accusing them of “turning Mexico into a failed narco-state.”

Waltz agreed that it was “time to go on offense” against the traffickers, echoing his colleague’s comparison to the banned terrorist group. “We need to start thinking about these groups more like ISIS than we do the mafia,” he told Politico on Monday.

A group of 20 Republican congressmen led by Texas Rep. Chip Roy last month introduced a bill that would designate the Gulf Cartel, Cartel del Noreste, Cartel de Sinaloa, and Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion as “Foreign Terrorist Organizations.”

Republican senators Lindsey Graham and John Kennedy unveiled a similar bill last month calling for a task force dedicated to cartels and drug traffickers and naming nine such organizations to be designated as terrorist.

What they’re leaving out is the fact that the US military trained the cartels. The cartels are genuinely analogous to ISIS, in that ISIS was a US creation utilized to justify the US military intervention in Syria. First they create the problem – ISIS, the cartels – and then they offer the solution, which is always a military intervention.

But whereas Russia stepped in to prevent the US from effecting regime change in Syria, I think we can expect China to step in to prevent the US from effecting regime change in Mexico. I also suspect that the “young Chinese men of military age” reported being seen in Mexico by Michael Yon are not there to prepare for a Chinese invasion of the southern border, but rather, to build the Chinese military bases that will be used to defend the Mexican government from the US military.

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No Point in Talking

China has realized that Russia is correct and there is absolutely no point in communicating with an enemy party that is agreement-incapable.

Beijing’s current aversion to sustained high-level engagement underscores the particularly fraught nature of U.S.-Chinese relations over the past few months. What was a two-sided desire to stabilize an increasingly volatile relationship is becoming much more about Washington reaching out and the Chinese government demurring.

Beijing is increasingly resentful about U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and official contacts that China says encourage Taiwan’s pro-independence elements.

There’s always a certain degree of diplomatic theater to the canceling of high-level meetings between the United States and China. But ensuring stable communications with major adversaries like China and Russia has long been a U.S. preference. Some U.S. officials worry Beijing’s thin-skinned diplomacy is hampering crucial communication between the rivals in a way that could have global fallout in a major crisis.

“The Chinese have been reluctant to engage in discussions around confidence building or crisis communications or hotlines,” National Security Council Indo-Pacific coordinator Kurt Campbell said at a Center for a New American Security event last week. “Given the fact that our forces operate in proximity, we’re going to have increasing challenges.”

If one reads the English-language Chinese media, such as Global Times and CGTN, it quickly becomes apparent that China neither fears the US military nor respects the US government anymore. While the Chinese are still wary of the power of the US military, particularly the sea power of the US Navy, it is evident that the Chinese are aware of the way in which US diplomacy is no longer in line with actual US military capabilities, as well as the fact that no agreement with the USA is worth the paper on which it is written.

No doubt this serious concerns those whose influence rests on their ability to confound others with their word-spells. But you can’t bamboozle those who won’t even talk to you. Russia Today notes the recent Chinese indifference to US diplomacy with a noticeable degree of satisfaction.

China has demonstrated immense diplomatic patience towards the US over the past few years, even as Washington has been venting relentless hostility towards Beijing, including, but not limited to:

  • accusations of genocide;
  • blacklisting numerous technology companies;
  • attempting to crush China’s technological development;
  • backtracking on its commitment to the One-China policy;
  • spreading conspiracy theories over the Covid-19 pandemic’s origins;
  • building new military alliances such as AUKUS, with the intention of containing China;
  • coercing third-party countries into blocking and rejecting key Chinese investments;
  • forcing other countries to take sides in an attempt to create a Cold-War-like climate;
  • whipping up anti-Chinese paranoia and vilification of China in US domestic politics.

The list is not exhaustive, yet once upon a time, China genuinely believed that these hostile policies were a ‘glitch’ of the Trump administration, and sought to engage Biden positively to try and establish a course correction. It was wrong, it was very wrong. The Biden administration has not only embraced the foreign policy consensus which former President Donald Trump created, but has doubled down on it uncritically and made things even worse. This has empowered hawks in Beijing, including President Xi Jinping himself, who has now directly called out the US, to arrive at the conclusion that the relationship with the US is beyond saving. The domestic political climate within the US is so toxic that is questionable the Biden administration even controls its foreign policy at all. 

World War III has already begun. And the imperial USA is going to lose that war.

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If the Dollar is Their Superpower

Then their global hegemony is rapidly coming to an end:

The dollar is America’s superpower. It gives Washington unrivaled economic and political muscle. The United States can slap sanctions on countries unilaterally, freezing them out of large parts of the world economy. And when Washington spends freely, it can be certain that its debt, usually in the form of T-bills, will be bought up by the rest of the world.

Sanctions imposed on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine combined with Washington’s increasingly confrontational approach to China have created a perfect storm in which both Russia and China are accelerating efforts to diversify away from the dollar. Their central banks are keeping less of their reserves in dollars, and most trade between them is being settled in the yuan. They are also, as Putin noted, making efforts to get other countries to follow suit…

America’s politicians have gotten used to spending seemingly without any concerns about deficits — public debt has risen almost fivefold from roughly $6.5 trillion 20 years ago to $31.5 trillion today. The Fed has solved a series of financial crashes by massively expanding its balance sheet twelvefold, from around $730 billion 20 years ago to about $8.7 trillion today. All of this only works because of the dollar’s unique status. If that wanes, America will face a reckoning like none before.

The decline of the US financial superweapon will be exacerbated by the emergence of China as a financial safe harbor, at least for those who have not spent the last decade attacking it or attempting to subvert it.

The unfolding banking crisis in the US and Europe could highlight China as a “relative safe haven,” economists at Citi said in a note seen by CNBC. The Chinese economy could see accelerated expansion this year, giving the country a “hedge” for growth while economies in the US and Europe face heightened risk of financial disruption, according to the note.

It’s going to be interesting. That’s the only thing we can know for certain. And both one’s investment and consumption should be directed toward hard assets that will hold their value regardless of price levels.

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Russia Backs Chinese Reunification

It’s clear that Taiwan is the next major front in the global declownization program. I still anticipate it will be peaceful, despite the best efforts of the neoclowns to start another war there.

Vladimir Dzhabarov, the first deputy chairman of the Federation Council’s International Relations Committee, said on Monday’s episode of Rossiya-24 television that Russia hopes Taiwan will peacefully rejoin China, according to Russian news agency TASS.

“This is a single territory. We are not talking about Taiwan’s sovereignty: It’s the territory of the People’s Republic of China. We hope that Taiwan’s reunification with China will take place peacefully sooner or later,” Dzhabarov said.

The lawmaker asserted that Russia will always support mainland China and agrees with every position Beijing takes toward Taipei.

Clown World is crumbling fast.

Antisemitism, Han-style

Only a few years after rejecting the planned “leap to China”, Tablet laments the way the Chinese are now actively turning against the Jewish people for reasons that appear to be based on nothing more than a straightforward observation of the decline and incipient fall of the United States over the 20th century.

According to Lu’s videos and commentary, Jews are manipulators, penny-pinchers, loan sharks, and drug dealers. More than an ethnic group bound by blood and history, they operate like a private club, an elitist cabal whose members are linked by a web of common interests, “especially the American Jews.” It is through these social connections that Jews have infiltrated key global positions and “took control of the three cornerstones of American society, namely finance, media, and culture.” The Jewish penetration of American power is so far advanced that the Bush, Obama, and Biden families and administrations have all fallen prey to Jewish influence. Because Jews control the anti-China U.S. media and hold key positions in Biden’s anti-China cabinet, they are the “ideological voice” of the United States, the spearhead of the West’s accelerating crusade against the Chinese government and people.

How perfectly outrageous! This Chinese criticism of an innocent and saintly people who have never harmed anyone and never done nothing wrong to nobody is hateful, antisemitic, and, unfortunately, appears to be 100-percent accurate.

The thing is, you can fool all the people some of the time, but if you’re an ethnic cabal of wicked pedophiles who believe you’re destined to rule the world on behalf of your master, Satan, eventually some of the people are going to notice this and take exception to both you and your objectives, no matter how many names you manage to call them.

And if you attack those who are doing nothing more than observably telling the readily-confirmable truth, eventually everyone is going to figure out that you’re a community of shameless liars and literally nothing that any of you say can be taken at face value.

Xi Xinping is the most intelligent world leader on the scene today. The great Chinese strategist Wang Hunin was 20 years ahead of me in his geostrategic observations. So, I very much doubt that anyone is going to be successful in gaslighting either of them, no matter how many Western institutions they happen to have at their disposal.

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The Decline of Europe

One very small example of how the decision to ostracize Russia is going to diminish Europe on the world stage:

The Russian chess body, which started the application process for the transfer in April 2022, joined the Asian Chess Federation (ACF) in a general-assembly vote which saw 29 delegates vote for the move, one delegate vote against, and six delegates abstain. The final transition is scheduled to take place officially on May 1.

This is the first time in history that a chess superpower has switched to another continent. Currently, Russia has 190 grandmasters listed by the FIDE, the most of any country in the world. Geographically, around 77 percent of Russia’s landmass is in Asia.

The influx of those highly rated Russian grandmasters to the Asian region may affect the chances of Asian players, such as those from China and India, to qualify for the World Championship cycle. However, this influx will also increase the quality of Asian chess competitions, which will benefit Asian players in the long run.

Such a change also means the 2023 World Chess Championship has become an intra-continental event rather than inter-continental one. China’s world No.3 Ding Liren will face Russian chess grandmaster Ian Nepomniachtchi, who is now sitting at second place in the world ratings by the FIDE, in the 2023 World Chess Championship after incumbent champion and world No.1 Magnus Carlsen decided not to defend his title.

Sure, it’s just chess, for now. But how long will it be before other sports follow suit? Quantity has a quality of its own. How long will it be before the big money begins to flow to Asia rather than to Europe? My expectation is that within 10 years, it will be the next Haaland, rather than the next Ronaldo, who will be signing for an Asian football club.

And based on the fact that this article is from Global Times, it is clear that the Chinese are very well aware of the long-term implications of this change of chess federations on the part of the Russian authority.

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The Folly of Ukraine

Karl Denninger explains how the imperial USA’s interventionist foreign policy is leading up to a Syracuse moment for the US empire:

It was only a matter of time before our so-called foreign policy turned into a serious problem with someone who can punch back.

For decades the United States has arrogated to itself the capacity to tell other nations who they should have as leaders. Who must run said nation, and who may not. The alliances that are to be coddled, and those that are forbidden. This is preposterous, of course, in that national sovereignty is precisely that, yet we have for decades believed we have the “righteous authority” to issue such diktat.

The CIA has toppled some 50 governments over time. Some more-or-less openly, some on the down low. Iran is an infamous one that ultimately blew up in our face. Deciding that the Iranian government was unacceptable because it expropriated the property of a British company, not even a US concern, we interfered, toppled the government and installed the Shah. This ultimately led to the Iranian revolution and the seizure of hostages at our Embassy, never mind a whole bunch of other terrorism.

We are very anti-narcotic and anti-serious drug — except, of course, when the use of the money generated suits us. Then its “oh well” or “oh, that’s sad”, even if the people that die from said drugs are in the United States, and they often are. Oliver North and the cocaine trade that was at the center of Iran-Contra anyone?

The United States was the initiator of events that led to the war in Ukraine. We were fully behind the overthrow of the government there back at the time of Maidan less than a decade ago. Said government was incorrigible, but that’s none of our business, right up until it apparently is and someone gets a wild hair in their backside about where someone’s using the money — or really, really likes the idea of being able to launder some as a US interest. Anything that gets in the way of that is, of course, unacceptable.

But for Maidan there would be no war in Ukraine. But for our continued attempts to do what we did with Turkey and missiles right near Russia there would have been no Cuban missile incident either. Yes, that was a crisis, but it was our making — not the USSR’s. Would you sit back and let some foreign nation put nuclear missiles in Mexico within a few minutes flight time of LA?

Didn’t think so.

Fundamentally the Ukraine problem lies there.

His analysis is correct, although I consider it to be partial and historically incomplete. Here is my not-unrelated perspective: the US empire, like most late-stage empires, is currently run by foreigners who have obtained power and influence through words, money, and the naivete of the native people. Those foreign rulers are now in the process of discovering the massive difference of being a parasite on another people and actually being responsible for all the various challenges of governing a major world power.

Be careful what you wish for. You just might get it.

It should be no surprise that the endeavor is going about as well as it did for the adopted gamma child who is suddenly given responsibility to provide for and protect the entire neighborhood. The challenge is not just beyond his abilities, it is beyond his imagination. And now the people who have never successfully managed a single state the size of Delaware are intentionally seeking direct conflict with the oldest and most successful civilization on Earth as well as with the second-greatest military power in human history.

The odds are not good.

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