Tag: China

Indefinite Exercises

China announces that its military exercises blockading the island of Taiwan, scheduled to end on Sunday, have been extended:

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on Monday continued military exercises and training activities surrounding the island of Taiwan, marking an extension from the previously announced schedule. Drills like these will not stop and are expected to become routine until reunification, as the Chinese mainland shows its determination to push forward the reunification process after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s provocative visit to the island last week that seriously violated China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, experts said.

The drills not only lock the island from inside out, but also from the outside in, telling external forces that the PLA has powerful area denial capabilities in the region that even the US cannot rival, analysts said.

The PLA Eastern Theater Command continued realistic combat-oriented joint exercises in sea and air space around the island of Taiwan on Monday, focusing on joint anti-submarine warfare and sea assault operations, the PLA Eastern Theater Command said in a statement.

Monday’s exercises mean that the PLA has extended its drills surrounding the island of Taiwan, which were originally scheduled to conclude on Sunday noon.

“As long as the Taiwan question is not solved, drills like these will not stop,” Song Zhongping, a Chinese mainland military expert and TV commentator, told the Global Times on Monday.

I suspect the Chinese are very aware that the US military is going to be unable to interfere with its actions in the South China Sea, being distracted by the Ukraine situation as well as what appears to be the incipient arrest of President Donald Trump.

This doesn’t mean that the final reunification push is on yet, but it is an indication that it might be coming.

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A Quiet Response

In lieu of shooting down Nancy Pelosi’s plane, China opts for a considerably more brutal economic response:

For the past two days, there seemed to be no other news in the world than the visit of the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives to Taiwan. Nancy Pelosi’s plane overshadowed both the fighting in Ukraine and the global financial and energy crisis. As a result, a representative of the American establishment did visit the island, and China confined itself to a series of extremely harsh political statements. This fact triggered an avalanche of alarmist statements from all kinds of experts trumpeting China’s strategic defeat. The emphasis was made exclusively on the military aspect, while completely overlooking the fact that we are talking about an Asian country, that is, a state with a different mentality, power system, political scenarios and approaches from the European one.

While everyone was watching the maneuvers and exercises of the PLA Navy, Beijing delivered an imperceptible, but perfectly calibrated and crushing blow. Since August 3, it has been strictly forbidden to send sand to Taiwan. For Taiwan, this is far worse than a direct military invasion and an amphibious landing.

The disruption of imported supply chains of construction sand and quartz sand could potentially send not only the Taiwanese economy, but the entire global electronics industry, from game consoles to the “brains” of modern missiles and fighter jets, into a deep knockout.

Watching the maneuvers of air units and warship formations off the coast of Taiwan is extremely fascinating. Anyone who has read the works of Sun Tzu understands that this is only a beautiful backdrop and that if you sit on your sandy shore long enough, one day an entire island will come to you.

Anyone who has read Unrestricted Warfare will not be surprised to see China eschew a direct and obvious response that would accomplish nothing but military escalation in favor of a more subtle asymmetric response that will cause severe strategic harm to its adversaries.

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No Worries, It’s Just a Drill

The Chinese provide details on their recent series of joint military exercises:

This is the first time the PLA will launch live long-range artillery across the Taiwan Straits, in a move that will demonstrate the PLA’s firm will and strong capability to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and thwart secessionist attempts by “Taiwan independence” and external interfering forces, Zhang Junshe, a senior research fellow at the Naval Research Academy of the PLA, told the Global Times on Wednesday.

“If the conventional missiles of the PLA were to be launched from the mainland toward the west of Taiwan and hit targets to its east, this means that the missiles would fly over the island, which is unprecedented,” Chinese mainland military expert Zhang Xuefeng told the Global Times.

He also pointed out that five of the drill zones are set to the east of the so-called median line of the Taiwan Straits, and this means that the existence of the line is denied through the concrete action of the PLA.

Some drill zones are also for the first time set to include areas within 12 nautical miles to the island of Taiwan, but since Taiwan is a part of China, Taiwan’s so-called territorial sea is also China’s territorial sea, Zhang Xuefeng said.

Also, the PLA drills surrounding Taiwan are intended to show that it is capable of blockading the entire island and of resolving the Taiwan question through non-peaceful ways, if the situation becomes irretrievable, observers said.

So, the Chinese military has announced they’re going to be sailing vessels into previously respected territorial waters and firing missiles directly over the island. Which presumably means that the Taiwanese will have to be circumspect about ships and missiles approaching the island.

Hmmmm….

I don’t think China has any need to invade Taiwan, which is why I concluded that the eventual reunification with the mainland will be a mostly peaceful one akin to the recent Hong Kong reunification. But the stage has certainly been set for an invasion in the aftermath of the Pelosi visit.

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Were the Chinese Bluffing?

A lot of people seem to think so, particularly Karl Denninger, in light of the failure of the Chinese to follow through on the threatened military response to Nancy Pelosi landing in Taiwan. And while that’s obviously the likely explanation, it should be kept in mind that “exercises” and “training operations” have often been historically utilized as cover for incipient invasions:

Beijing has begun conducting military drills off Taiwan after promising to launch a series of “targeted military operations” in response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the self-governing island, Chinese media reported.

“The Eastern Zone of the PLA Combat Command is consistently conducting a series of joint military operations around the island of Taiwan,” CCTV reported hours after Pelosi arrived on the island.

Pelosi touched down in Taipei late on Tuesday despite repeated warnings from Beijing against attempting to visit territory that it regards as an integral part of China.

“The Chinese People’s Liberation Army is on high alert and will launch a series of targeted military operations to counter this, resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and resolutely thwart external interference and ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist attempts,” defense ministry spokesman Wu Qian said, without providing any further detail.

In a separate statement, China’s Eastern Theater Command announced joint military drills off Taiwan, live-firing in the Taiwan Strait and missile test-launches in the sea east of Taiwan. The exercises kicked off early on Wednesday, footage circulated by Chinese CCTV shows.

I would not assume that the crisis has necessarily passed, as the exercises are scheduled to continue through August 6th. And remember, the Chinese seldom operate on a Western time frame. To simply back down and kowtow to the US military in front of the entire world just one day after celebrating the 95th birthday of the People’s Liberation Army strikes me as a rather improbable response.

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The Sacrificial Lamb Approaches

The only logical explanation for Nancy Pelosi’s much-rumored “secret” visit to Taiwan is for her to serve as a sacrificial casus belli to start the war that the neocons want with China at the earliest opportunity.

Taiwan has relocated French-supplied Mirage 2000 fighter jets and other military hardware, according to local media, ahead of a possible visit by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Eight additional aircraft were moved to the Chihhang Air Base, adding to the two Mirage 2000 fighters already stationed there, the Taiwan-based China Times reported on Tuesday.

The base is located in the southeastern part of the island, from where Pelosi’s plane is expected to approach, the outlet said. The facility was put on high alert, it added.

Meanwhile Taiwan’s Navy deployed two additional anti-submarine helicopters to patrol the waters near the island, the report said.

Meanwhile, the USS Ronald Reagan is said to be approaching Chinese waters as Chinese social media is reporting that both the Shandong and Fujian aircraft carriers have left their bases. China’s position remains very clear, and was repeated by the spokesman for the Foreign Ministry yesterday.

Reuters: US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is scheduled to visit Southeast Asia and East Asia this week and Taiwan is not mentioned in her itinerary. What’s China’s comment?

Zhao Lijian: Recently, the Chinese side has repeatedly made clear to the US side our serious concern over Speaker Pelosi’s potential visit to Taiwan and our firm opposition to the visit. We have been stressing that such a visit would lead to serious consequences. As President Xi Jinping stressed to US President Joe Biden in their phone call, the position of the Chinese government and people on the Taiwan question is consistent, and resolutely safeguarding China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity is the firm will of the more than 1.4 billion Chinese people. The public opinion cannot be defied. Those who play with fire will perish by it. We believe that the US side is fully aware of China’s strong and clear message. 

We are closely following the itinerary of Speaker Pelosi. A visit to Taiwan by her would constitute a gross interference in China’s internal affairs, seriously undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, wantonly trample on the one-China principle, greatly threaten peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, severely undermine China-US relations and lead to a very serious situation and grave consequences. 

We want to once again make it clear to the US side that the Chinese side is fully prepared for any eventuality and that the People’s Liberation Army of China will never sit idly by, and we will make resolute response and take strong countermeasures to uphold China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, What the US should do is to abide by the one-China principle and the stipulations of the three Sino-US joint communiqués, fulfill President Biden’s commitment of not supporting “Taiwan independence” and not arrange for a visit by Speaker Pelosi to Taiwan. 

It will be interesting to see if China decides to take the bait and initiate or if it finds another way of saving face. Either way, we may witness the long-expected opening of the second front soon.

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A Warning Within the Warning

It’s never a good sign when the Defense Ministry assumes responsibility for communications concerning certain matters in the place of the Foreign Ministry.

Action is the most powerful language, said the Chinese Defense Ministry on Thursday as its spokesperson stressed the sensitivity of the Taiwan question again after China issued six warnings against US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s potential visit to Taiwan island over the past few days.

The frequency of Chinese warnings and the remarks different departments use fully demonstrate China’s determination to take any necessary military measures to counter US provocations and safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, analysts said.

The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will not tolerate any “Taiwan independence” moves or interference from external forces, and will resolutely stop such attempts, Wu Qian, spokesperson for the Defense Ministry, said at Thursday’s press briefing.

The root cause of a turbulent Taiwan Straits is the collusion between “Taiwan independence” forces and external interfering forces, Wu said, urging relevant parties to learn to adapt to the new reality (PLA operations near the Straits), to reflect on their own deeds and “most importantly, to pull back from the brink.”

Though Wu was responding to a question about PLA operations on the Taiwan Straits, analysts interpreted Wu’s words as another stern warning against the US government and some US politicians who are pushing Pelosi’s possible visit to Taiwan island.

The US should not underestimate the crisis and possible disastrous results it will bring to the Taiwan Straits if Pelosi ultimately makes the trip, experts said. On edge of the cliff for bilateral relations, if the US does not pull back but keeps challenging the guardrail, the price will be beyond US capabilities to pay.

It’s an interesting historical lesson in the use of the phrase yanzhen yidai, which literally means “streamlining army formation to wait for the enemy” and has very seldom been used in the diplomatic context. It more accurately translates into modern American English as “fuck around and find out”, such as when Zhou Enlai warned the USA not to cross the 38th Parallel prior to the Chinese intervention in the Korean War.

In other words, the Chinese are no more bluffing over Taiwan than the Russians were bluffing over Ukraine.

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Excess Death in Australia

As I said even before the mass vaccinations began, the one thing the statisticians can’t hide is the bodies.

Key statistics
– In 2022, there were 59,147 deaths that occurred by 30 April and were registered by 30 June, which is 8,513 (16.8%) more than the historical average.
– In April there were 14,492 deaths, 1,580 (12.2%) above the historical average.

Baseline comparisons
Throughout this report, counts of deaths are compared to an average number of deaths for previous years. In this report, data for 2021 is compared to an average number of deaths recorded over the 5 years from 2015-2019 as was the case in previous publications. Data for 2022 is compared to a baseline comprising the years 2017-2019 and 2021. 2020 is not included in the baseline for 2022 data because it included periods where numbers of deaths were significantly lower than expected. Counts of deaths for 2015-2021 are included in the baseline datacubes of the data downloads section of this report.

These average or baseline counts serve as a proxy for the expected number of deaths, so comparisons against baseline counts can provide an indication of whether mortality is higher or lower than expected in a given year. The minimum and maximum counts are also included to provide an indication of the range of previous counts. Minimums and maximums for any given week can be from any of the years included in the baseline.

Provisional Mortality Statistics Jan-Apr 2022, Australia Bureau of Statistics, 29 July 2022

In other words, now that 96 percent of the Australian adult population has been vaxxed, about 10 percent more people are dying than normal. I would anticipate that when the Australian birth rate information for 2022 is released, it will show a decline of around 20 percent against the average.

At this rate of depopulation, Australia will be peacefully absorbed into China before 2040.

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Revenge For 500 Years

The historical nexus in which we find ourselves is a significant one, as the Asian powers clearly recognize that this is their first real opportunity in five centuries to restore the power balance that had always previously favored Asia over Europe.

While Europeans in general, and Americans in particular, erroneously tend to believe that their global primacy is inevitable and permanent, the people of Asia a very well aware that their civilizations are much older and they tend to correctly regard the last 500 years as a historical aberration. History did not end and if it is to rhyme, as we are told it does, then it is probably about time for the pendulum to swing back toward the East.

The victory of the Japanese over the Russians in 1905 appears to have presaged the current crisis, even though the foolish decision by the Japanese military to directly challenge the growing US naval power in addition to the declining British Empire was 70 years too early.

China, being more circumspect and far less aggressive than most historical Asian powers – for example, Deng repeatedly refused to invade Cambodia to free it from either the Khmer Rouge or the occupying Vietnamese, and did not approve the very limited invasion that eventually took place without massive pressure from Lew Kwan Yew and other Asian leaders who feared “the Prussians of East Asia” would continue their imperial offensive into other nations if China did not forcibly bring it to a halt – is not about to make the same mistake with regards the West.

All Asian powers in general feel that the world is going through a very important period of development, and the international system is going through a moment of transformation. This transformation is occurring in favor of the Asian powers in general, i.e., China first and foremost, and the main Asian states such as Russia, India, Iran and Turkey. These forces feel that they are witnessing a historical turning point in which they are regaining their civilizational weight and influence on the world which had been lost during the past 500 years.

These (Asian) states are still witnessing disparities, rivalries, and disagreements among them, the frameworks of cooperation between them are still developing and have not yet been crystalized, and part of these main (Asian) forces still have partnerships with the West and we know that. However, all of these states share a feeling that this world is becoming more pluralistic and balanced, and that they are facing a very great historical moment that they can seize to take away from the West a part of its domination and hegemony over them, whose (consequences) were at expense of them and their people.

Therefore, these forces are creating this form of partnership to try to seize this historical moment. This economic, demographic and political transition from West to East is considered by these states a historical opportunity that must be grasped. All of that was evident in the recent war with Ukraine. (For example,) India, despite its close relations with the United States, did not go into conflict with Russia as requested (by the US). Turkey kept its options open, even on the Ukrainian issue. Why? Because these states, as I told you, see that the Asian powers, that Asia, is back at the heart of the international system.

The marginalization of Asia was at the expense of the powers (in this continent) and its people. Therefore, this course is not new, and (its players) have taken advantage of the crisis of the West, the decline of American hegemony, and the rise of Asian powers; and this is still ongoing. As for speed of this path, its transformations may occur faster or may slow down depending on certain events. For example, we are waiting for the results of the war in Ukraine. We are waiting for the prospect of the US-Chinese confrontation, which I believe is the most important event from now until the year 2050. The next 20 or 30 years will determine the fate of the world through a confrontation that will escalate quickly between America and China. This competition and conflict and its consequences will shape the world for decades and centuries to come.

The United States announced in June or at the end of May, in a speech made by Blinken (, the US Secretary of State,), the American approach to confronting China. (Blinken) said four times in his speech “this decisive decade”, which is from 2020 to 2030. All American literature today uses the term: “the decisive decade”. (The US) says that it has the next 10 years (until the end of 2030) to resolve the conflict with China. If it can reverse the trajectories in this time period… In other words, if (the US) can transform the rise of China into a decline, and the decline of the United States into a rise, it has a chance of reclaiming or maintaining its leadership (over the world). However, if it does not succeed to accomplish its goal before 2030, and China continues to rise at the current level and pattern, and America is not able to regain the initiative, (the US) will reach the point of no return and China will become the strongest in the international system. Consequently, all American thinking (today) looks at the world, including the Middle East, with its conflicts and forces, from a Chinese perspective, at the first, second, third and fourth stage, before it gets into any other issues.

The most important thing to keep in mind here is that nothing the US leaders and diplomats do or say is going to cause the other Asian countries to fear China as much as they fear the West. All of the anti-Chinese propaganda about Chinese totalitarianism, communism, and imperial ambitions absolutely pale besides 500 years of Western colonialism. It is the USA, not China, that presently occupies Japan and South Korea. It was the USA, not China, that maintained a massive military presence in the Philippines from 1898 to 1992.

National grievances last a long, long time. Remember, it took more than 500 years for the Spanish to reclaim their conquered lands, but they succeeded in the end and went on to establish one of history’s more glittering empires.

If we are fortunate, globalism will soon lose its death-grip on the nations of the West even as it has lost its control over all of the unoccupied nations of the East. If we are even more fortunate, the nations of the East will learn from the mistakes of the Spanish, the British, and the Americans and eschew the temptations of Empire.

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Leaving the West Behind

It’s clear that the primary reason for the current desperation of the Prometheans stems from the way they seriously underestimated the Chinese. But the Chinese have turned out to be significantly harder to fool than the Europeans of the West, and now they are demonstrating that they no longer require guidance in order to advance their technology beyond Western levels.

A report by Bloomberg Thursday found that Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC). China’s premier chip manufacturer has developed the ability to produce chips to the highest Western standards despite US sanctions that had been designed to prevent such an advance.

According to a report by industry blog Tech Insights, which Bloomberg has confirmed, SMIC has produced Bitcoin mining semiconductors with 7-nanometer technology since last July. The figure represents the size of the transistors involved, and the smaller the figure, the smaller the transistors, and the more transistors that can be fit on a single chip. The more transistors on a chip, the faster and more efficient it will be.

Previously SMIC had only produced chips to a standard of 14-nanometers, and the US government had hoped to prevent any advance beyond that level. In 2020, the US government had banned export of equipment capable of producing 10nm and below level chips to SMIC. Currently the US government is focusing on preventing Dutch supplier ASML from supplying similar machines to SMIC.

Although ASML is already forbidden from selling its most advanced equipment to SMIC, the Biden administration is trying to tighten the ban to include less advanced technologies as well.

Currently Taiwan’s TSMC and South Korea’s Samsung can make 7nm semiconductors, while US-based Intel is slated to release its own 7nm chip next year. Currently the most advanced US and European chips are only 12nm.

It is not clear how China has reached this level of technological sophistication. Some have suggested they may have modified their 14nm tooling.

Meanwhile, in Europe, the lights may literally be going out this winter thanks to the reprehensible stupidity of the European leaders who believed the lies of the neocons and agreed to act as the USA’s economic proxy army:

Switzerland has developed an emergency plan in the event of an energy crisis if natural gas and electricity supplies run short, the Basler Zeitung newspaper reported this week.

According to the paper, the Swiss government has been working in tandem with industrial companies for several months on the plan. It includes several steps, ranging from a public awareness campaign with calls for energy saving, such as turning off shop window lights and heaters, to rationing electricity for about 30,000 large energy consumers.

The government also warns of the possibility of power shutdowns in certain areas of the country from four to eight hours a day as a more stringent measure.

As I have repeatedly warned you, we’ll be fortunate if we emerge on the other end of this civilizational catastrophe with interior plumbing. Abandoning the traditions of your fathers, adopting foreign creeds and accepting foreign rulers seldom ends well for any nation.

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When Losing One War Isn’t Enough

Already on their knees due to NATO’s war on Russia, the leaders of the EU nevertheless appear to be determined to open a second front with China as well.

AFP: The European Parliament Vice President Nicola Beer is visiting Taiwan this week. She said today that Europe must stand firm with Taiwan and avoid turning a blind eye to the mainland’s threats to Taiwan. Do you have any response to these comments?

Zhao Lijian: Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory. The one-China principle is a widely recognized basic norm in international relations and the political foundation of China-Europe relations. The European Parliament is an official institution of the European Union. Hence its members and senior officials are expected to abide by the one-China principle. 

Over the past two years, the European Parliament has promulgated multiple Taiwan-related resolutions to support and embolden “Taiwan independence” forces. Such moves have gravely violated the one-China principle and poisoned the atmosphere of China-Europe relations. China firmly opposes all forms of official interactions between the EU side and the Taiwan region. We urge the EU side to earnestly abide by the one-China principle, speak and act with prudence on issues related to Taiwan, and prevent any serious disruption in China-Europe relations. 

It’s not exactly a mystery why China is siding so strongly with Russia and ignoring all the desperate pleas to join the failed economic sanctions. And just in case the European leaders didn’t get the message being sent by multiple members of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, the Global Times spelled it out for them.

Chinese Foreign Ministry denounced the European Parliament (EP) on Wednesday for having seriously violating the one-China principle and urged the EU body to stop any forms of official exchanges with China’s Taiwan region.

The responding remarks came after EP’s vice-president Nicola Beer arrived on Taiwan island leading a delegation and kicked off a three-day visit to show support to the secessionists in the island. Taiwan’s secessionist Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities hyped the fact that Beer is the first EP official at this level to visit the island in an official capacity.

Upon her arriving, Beer said the EU would not turn a blind eye to “China’s threats” toward the island, as she maintains that “Taiwan’s bloom is Europe’s bloom,” Taiwan-based media reported. Beer is scheduled to meet Taiwan’s regional leader Tsai Ing-wen during the visit.

“Taiwan is an inalienable part of China’s territory. The one-China principle is a widely recognized basic norm in international relations and the political foundation of China-Europe relations. The EP is an official institution of the EU. Hence its members and senior officials are expected to abide by the one-China principle,” said Wang Wenbin, spokesperson of Chinese Foreign Ministry on Wednesday.

Over the past two years, the European Parliament has promulgated multiple Taiwan-related resolutions to support and embolden “Taiwan independence” forces. Such moves have gravely violated the one-China principle and poisoned the atmosphere of China-Europe relations, Wang stressed.

“China firmly opposes all forms of official interactions between the EU side and the Taiwan region,” Wang said, “We urge the EU to earnestly abide by the one-China principle, to speak and act with prudence on issues related to Taiwan, and to prevent any serious disruption in China-Europe relations.”

Zhao Lijian, Foreign Ministry, 19 July 2022

This diplomatic recklessness and retardery is breathtaking. If it weren’t for what we’ve witnessed over the last two years, it would be almost impossible to believe it was real.

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