Tag: China

China Calls Out Surveillance

Wait, what’s that sound. It sounds like they’re playing… that’s AC’s music! This unusually direct accusation by the Chinese Foreign Ministry is ostensibly in response to the US Air Force shooting down the rogue Chinese weather balloon, and perhaps that is all it is, but the repeated references to “No. 1 spy empire” and “absolute No. 1 country in terms of spying and surveillance” make it appear to also be shot across the bow concerning the massive domestic Stalkerstasi spy program.

As a matter of fact, it is the US who is the No.1 surveillance country and has the largest spy network in the world.

The US National Security Agency spied on calls and chat messages to and from the phones of leaders of Germany, France, Norway, Sweden, the Netherlands and other European countries. The US has been operating a highly secretive signals intelligence collection program through almost a hundred US embassies and consulates worldwide. Anzer, a cybersecurity information platform, revealed last year that the NSA stole more than 97 billion pieces of global internet data and 124 billion phone records in 30 days, compromising the privacy of citizens across the world. Namibia recently found in its waters a US saildrone used to gather data underwater, and local media generally believe it to be an American spy drone. The US knows how many surveillance balloons it has sent into the skies in the world. It’s quite clear to the global community which country is the No.1 spy empire in the world…

Over the years, the US has been engaged in massive, non-discriminate wiretapping and secret theft operations globally, including against its allies, by abusing its tech advantage. These operations violate the sovereignty and interests of countries around the world, the international law and basic norms governing international relations, which makes the US the absolute No.1 country in terms of spying and surveillance.

Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin’s Regular Press Conference on February 13, 2023

Once WWIII goes hot, by which I mean it ceases to be presented as a proxy conflict between “Ukraine” and Vladimir Putin’s ego, but becomes a direct war between the USA and the Sino-Russian alliance, I expect we are going to learn an awful lot about the historical and ongoing misdeeds of the US government and its agencies, as well as of the Clown World individuals and organizations that control them.

Remember, the Russians know all about “the Holocaust”. It was their Red Army that liberated all of the so-called death camps. They know all about the surveillance and spy programs, both international and domestic. They know everything about NASA and the space programs. They know who killed JFK and why. They know why Watergate happened and they know at whose behest Nixon was removed.

And now it appears the Chinese do too. It’s somewhat amusing that while US figures such as Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, Donald Trump, Ben Shapiro, Ann Coulter, Jordan Peterson, Ron DeSantis and pretty much every other figure of the neoconservative media and movement keep their mouths resolutely shut about something they definitely know about, the Chinese are openly throwing it out there to the entire world.

Jesus Christ said “the truth will set you free.” If you cannot speak the truth, then you obviously are not free.

Just in case anyone happened to miss the significance of this statement by the Foreign Ministry, the Global Times made sure to highlight it. Any revelatory information releases by China or Russia will obviously be dismissed as “wartime rhetoric.” Indeed, it will actually be wartime rhetoric, but dialectic is a form of rhetoric and I have no doubt that both the Russians and the Chinese will find it to be highly beneficial to inform Americans just how genuinely evil the rulers of Clown World are.

It may be worth noting that even as it calls out US surveillance, China is also very publicly embracing Iran, with a specific message to anyone who feels “targeted” by the new developmetns.

The development of China-Iran relations has a strong endogenous driving force. It can be said that President Raisi’s visit to China is very natural. However, as Iran is still under severe sanctions by the US, and China is the main target of US’ strategic suppression. With a narrow-minded mindset, some US and Western public opinion appeared rather odd in viewing the relationship between China and Iran, hyping that both China and Iran are “opposed” to the US and claiming that cooperation between the two sides will “weaken US efforts to isolate Iran.” Such zero-sum thinking is arrogant, unreasonable and overbearing. China and Iran do not need to act according to their attitude, and it is even less likely that the two sides will reduce exchanges because some people are unhappy.

In fact, many of the achievements of China-Iran cooperation in recent years have been realized by overcoming interference and sabotage by the US side. It may be difficult to improve this situation in a short period of time, but outside the US-West bloc and its influence circle, there is huge space and potential for win-win cooperation between countries, including China and Iran, which cannot be blocked by the political forces of the US and the West.

In this sense, China’s deepening cooperation with Iran also has anti-hegemony and anti-bullying feature. Both China and Iran uphold independent foreign policies, firmly defend the principle of non-interference in internal affairs on international occasions, and safeguard the common interests of developing countries. This is conducive to promoting the multi-polarization and diversified development of the world, and conforms to the general trend of the times. If anyone feels “targeted” in this process, then they should first reflect on whether they are too selfish.

Welcome President Raisi. China, Iran no need to watch attitude of US, West, Global Times, 14 February 2023

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The Media Loses Narrative Control

The Foreign Ministry of China calls out the US media for failing to cover the expose on the US military’s destruction of the Nordstream pipelines and demands that Washington account for its actions concerning the attack on European energy supplies.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry on Friday urged the US to make “a responsible explanation” to the world, after veteran US investigative journalist Seymour Hersh, in a latest article, accused the US of being the culprit behind the Nord Stream gas pipelines blasts in September 2022.

Hersh, an 85-year-old Pulitzer Prize winner, published the article on his personal website on Wednesday, stating that the US military was involved in sabotaging the Nord Stream gas pipelines after senior White House officials plotted for nine months within the national security community.

“If Hersh’s investigative report is true, this is unacceptable behavior and must be held accountable,” said Mao Ning, spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry. “The US should give a responsible explanation to the world,” Mao said at a routine press briefing on Friday when asked to comment on Hersh’s article.

Mao said that the Nord Stream gas pipelines are a major piece of transnational infrastructure, and the explosions have had a significant negative impact on the global energy market and the global ecological environment. When asked to comment on US mainstream media’s silence over Hersh’s investigation, Mao stated that “it’s not the first time” that US media has done so.

“It proves that some US media outlets do not care what the truth is. They are deaf to the truth that really matters, and what is loudly hyped by them is often not the truth, but a false narrative,” Mao said.

Even as the mainstream media attempts to clamp down on alternative US-based news sources that falsify its false narratives using the patently absurd excuse of stopping “disinformation”, the reach and influence of the Chinese media is expanding.

Consider this: a single episode of the newly-launched Midnight’s War in Chinese already has 260,000 views. To put it in perspective, that would make it the #2 independent comic on Webtoons, as the most popular series there averages 263,043 views.

The spread of technology around the world has evened the playing field, which is why it is no longer possible for five media companies controlling a relatively small market of 330 million to dictate a global narrative for 8 billion people.

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More Sanctions on China

I think we all know how this is going to end:

The US announced new sanctions against China on Friday, targeting six companies linked to Beijing’s suspected surveillance program. The move comes after a Chinese “spy balloon” was spotted and shot down in US airspace.

In a statement, the US Commerce Department said the entities were being blacklisted for supporting China’s “military modernization efforts, specifically those related to aerospace programs.” These included airships, balloons and related materials used by Beijing for intelligence and reconnaissance.

The new restrictions will make it harder for the sanctioned companies to obtain US technologies.

I’m sure the Chinese are quaking in their boots. Where will they ever get advanced technology that they don’t already possess? If only there was an island within 100 miles that possessed all the very latest and greatest in semiconductor technology!

At this point, the only question is whether the neoclowns are intentionally pushing the USA and Europe into defeat by the Sino-Russian alliance or if they are still hoping that the US military can defeat both China and Russia before they completely lose their influence in the USA.

My assumption is the latter, because if there is one useful piece of counterintuitive information that we have learned about Clown World over the years, it is that it is more tactically than strategically oriented, and its preferences are much more short term than one would tend to imagine. Keep in mind that a tactic blindly repeated and ultimately successful is, in hindsight, indistinguishable from a strategy.

And also remember that the seeds of future failure are sown by past success.

UPDATE: Yeah, so this wasn’t at all a foreseeable consequence of all the “hey, let’s fight China as soon as we’re done with Russia” talk from the neoclowns.

China is aiming to increase the number of itsnuclear warheads to 900 by 2035 as a deterrent against the US, Chinese sources have told Kyodo news agency. According to people familiar with the matter, President Xi Jinping has already approved the plan to double the country’s nuclear arsenal, the Korean agency reported on Saturday.

The number of China’s warheads is likely to grow from around 400 to 550 by 2027 and reach 900 in 2035, Kyodo’s interlocutors claimed.

Here’s my prediction. By 2035, both China’s and Russia’s nuclear arsenals will each be larger than the US nuclear arsenal, even in the event the USA still exists as a single, unitary political entity. Industrial capacity is the primary determinant of who wins global wars.

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Advantage: China

Extrapolating from a 2015 US think tank report, China has now almost certainly surpassed parity with US air and sea forces in the South China Sea and now possesses a military advantage in the region. While the most recent reports are moderately more favorable to the US military, they are based in part on weapons systems and stocks that are not even available to the US forces yet, so for the purposes of comparing the capabilities of the two sides, it is more reasonable to extrapolate from the past analyses than utilize the current one.

Also, neither the past nor the present analysis takes into account the possibility of the US military being simultaneously involved in a war with Russia, which is currently the case. The point here is not to determine whether this is likely to be a positive development or a negative one for any particular party, but rather, to ascertain what the actual military situation happens to be at what is an obvious historical nexus.

Remember, it doesn’t matter what you think of the CCP, Clown World, Old Glory, or the US Marines, or what you want to believe. The material facts, and the military capabilities, are what they actually are.

Over the past two decades, China’s People’s Liberation Army has transformed itself from a large but antiquated force into a capable, modern military. Its technology and operational proficiency still lag behind those of the United States, but it has rapidly narrowed the gap. Moreover, China enjoys the advantage of proximity in most plausible conflict scenarios, and geographical advantage would likely neutralize many U.S. military strengths. A sound understanding of regional military issues — including forces, geography, and the evolving balance of power — will be essential for establishing appropriate U.S. political and military policies in Asia. This RAND study analyzes the development of respective Chinese and U.S. military capabilities in ten categories of military operations across two scenarios, one centered on Taiwan and one on the Spratly Islands. The analysis is presented in ten scorecards that assess military capabilities as they have evolved over four snapshot years: 1996, 2003, 2010, and 2017. The results show that China is not close to catching up to the United States in terms of aggregate capabilities, but also that it does not need to catch up to challenge the United States on its immediate periphery. Furthermore, although China’s ability to project power to more distant locations remains limited, its reach is growing, and in the future U.S. military dominance is likely to be challenged at greater distances from China’s coast. To maintain robust defense and deterrence capabilities in an era of fiscal constraints, the United States will need to ensure that its own operational concepts, procurement, and diplomacy anticipate future developments in Chinese military capabilities.

The U.S.-China Military Scorecard, RAND, 2015

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When the Plan Fails

A Rand report published in April 2019 laid out US strategy vis-a-vis Russia, which as you can see in hindsight, was followed fairly closely to the letter. Note that “extending” Russia is shorthand for “causing the Russians to overextend and unbalance themselves”.

This report examines a range of possible means to extend Russia. As the 2018 National Defense Strategy recognized, the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. This report seeks to define areas where the United States can compete to its own advantage. Drawing on quantitative and qualitative data from Western and Russian sources, this report examines Russia’s economic, political, and military vulnerabilities and anxieties. It then analyzes potential policy options to exploit them — ideologically, economically, geopolitically, and militarily (including air and space, maritime, land, and multidomain options). After describing each measure, this report assesses the associated benefits, costs, and risks, as well as the likelihood that measure could be successfully implemented and actually extend Russia. Most of the steps covered in this report are in some sense escalatory, and most would likely prompt some Russian counter-escalation. Some of these policies, however, also might prompt adverse reactions from other U.S. adversaries — most notably, China — that could, in turn, stress the United States. Ultimately, this report concludes that the most attractive U.S. policy options to extend Russia — with the greatest benefits, highest likelihood of success, and least risk — are in the economic domain, featuring a combination of boosting U.S. energy production and sanctions, providing the latter are multilateral. In contrast, geopolitical measures to bait Russia into overextending itself and ideological measures to undermine the regime’s stability carry significant risks. Finally, many military options — including force posture changes and development of new capabilities — could enhance U.S. deterrence and reassure U.S. allies, but only a few are likely to extend Russia, as Moscow is not seeking parity with the United States in most domains.

Key Findings

Russia’s weaknesses lie in the economic domains

  • Russia’s greatest vulnerability, in any competition with the United States, is its economy, which is comparatively small and highly dependent on energy exports.
  • The Russian leadership’s greatest anxiety stems from the stability and durability of the regime.

The most promising measures to stress Russia are in the realms of energy production and international pressure

  • Continuing to expand U.S. energy production in all forms, including renewables, and encouraging other countries to do the same would maximize pressure on Russia’s export receipts and thus on its national and defense budgets. Alone among the many measures looked at in this report, this one comes with the least cost or risk.
  • Sanctions can also limit Russia’s economic potential. To be effective, however, these need to be multilateral, involving (at a minimum) the European Union, which is Russia’s largest customer and greatest source of technology and capital, larger in all these respects than the United States.

Geopolitical measures to bait Russia into overextending itself are likely impractical, or they risk second-order consequences

  • Many geopolitical measures would force the United States to operate in areas that are closer to Russia and where it is thus cheaper and easier for Russia than the United States to exert influence.

Ideological measures to undermine the regime’s stability carry significant risks of counter escalation

  • Many military options — including force posture changes and development of new capabilities — could enhance U.S. deterrence and reassure U.S. allies, but only a few are likely to extend Russia, as Moscow is not seeking parity with the United States in most domains.
Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground, RAND, 24 April 2019

This was followed up by a report five months later, which provided specific actions intended to achieve the objectives identified in the initial report, entitled Overextending and Unbalancing Russia: Assessing the Impact of Cost-Imposing Options.

Insert deep movie trailer voice: They did not correctly assess the impact of the cost-imposed options.

What’s fascinating is that now RAND is rapidly backtracking on the idea of extending Russia, because the US attempts to extend Russia have turned out to extend the USA, its NATO proxies, the other European states, and Clown World itself. Remember what I said in the previous post about NATO needing to win fast? That’s why Rand wants to pull a Vietnam/Afghanistan, call it a win, and get the US military out of Eastern Europe as quickly as possible.

The Andrew Anglin committee has correctly assessed the situation.

Here’s the deal: everyone understands that Russia is only a power capable of competing with the US because it is backed by a much larger and much wealthier country called “China.” Russia needs their economy to survive. India wouldn’t be standing up to the US, nor would Saudi or any of the other former allies pushing back, if they weren’t getting cover from China.

The think tanks were all pushing for China to be the target of the next US war.

However, Pentagon people said Russia is much weaker, so they went with that. Now it’s a boondoggle. The West is destroying its economy, they are alienating the whole world, and they’re accomplishing what exactly? Russia can keep fighting indefinitely. It’s not costing them anything…

The US can’t possibly open up the China front while the Ukraine is ongoing, and time is on China’s side over there.

This is why RAND is mad.

However, wars do not take place in a vacuum and they have a way of creating a new reality that is unforeseen even by the architects of the best-laid warplans. There is no reason for Russia to let NATO and the US military off the hook just because it suits RAND, and there is absolutely zero chance that Xi Xinping and the extremely astute Chinese warplanners are going to be blind to the advantages of making sure that the first front stays active until the second one is opened by one of the two parties concerned.

Remember, the failure of a plan doesn’t mean it never existed, it simply means it didn’t work.

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Pressuring the Fake President

Clown World is desperate for one last big roll of the dice to salvage its project in Ukraine, and Joe Biden, of all people, is standing in the way:

No one should be surprised that Joe Biden’s ‘classified documents problem’ has emerged at the same time a key city in Ukraine (Soledar) has been liberated by Russian troops. All of the recent reports from the frontlines indicate that the Russian army is steadily seizing more territory in the eastern part of the country while inflicting heavy casualties on the over-matched Ukrainian forces. In short, the Ukrainian army is being beaten badly forcing US war planners to rethink their approach. What the US needs to do to prevail in its proxy-war with Russia, is to enlist a coalition of nations (US, Poland, Romania, and UK) that are willing to commit combat troops to the conflict with the tacit understanding that NATO will not directly participate in any ground war with Russia. Biden previously rejected the idea of sending troops to Ukraine acknowledging that it would be tantamount to launching a Third World War.

But as the ‘classified documents’ scandal gains momentum, the malleable president will likely fall-in-line and do whatever the hawkish foreign policy establishment demands of him. In short, the documents flap is being used by behind-the-scenes powerbrokers who are blackmailing the president to pursue their own narrow interests. They have Brandon over-a-barrel.

Most readers will recall that Hunter Biden’s laptop contains an abundance of information related to the Biden family’s vast influence peddling operation. All of this information was deliberately suppressed in the mainstream media in order to pave the way for Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election. So why—we wonder—has this new scandal become headline news while the laptop story was completely buried? And why are the most hawkish neocons in the senate, like Lindsey Graham, calling for a “special counsel” when they made no such effort to reveal the sordid details of the laptop?

So, now Lindsey Graham is a champion of truth and transparency?

Don’t make me laugh.

I assure you, if Biden announced the deployment of US combat troops to Ukraine tomorrow, Graham would withdraw his request for a special counsel immediately. This is about Ukraine, not classified documents or potentially unlawful presidential behavior. And—whatever you think of Biden—he doesn’t want to be the president who starts WW3. Unfortunately, the elites who control the media, the politicians and most of the nation’s wealth—are determined to widen the conflict which is why the narrative in the media has dramatically changed in the last week.

That article was published nearly two weeks ago, and since then, the pressure on Biden has only increased. From the revelations of the classified papers stored in his garage to a large diamond given to his son, more and more heat is being applied to Biden for some reason.

It could simply be pressure to resign in favor of Kamala Harris, who is more willing and able to do as she’s told. It could be, as the author reasonably surmises, pressure to unleash the US military openly against Russia. Or, what is more likely, it’s a combination of both.

However, if Biden is a fully-owned creature of the Chinese government, then it’s not going to be possible for him to give into the pressure, because China can break him more completely than Clown World can. Clown World can certainly impeach him and remove him from office, but that is a process which will take more time than the Ukraine Project likely has. Still, it is remarkable that even a dementia-addled elderly man who can barely remember his own name knows better than the evil geniuses of Clown World how crazy it is to take on Russia in a land war if your last name isn’t “Khan”.

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China Buys SF Publisher

This acquisition of an old science fiction publishing house by what appears to be SJWs funded by Chinese money should provide some amusement going forward:

New York, May 19, 2020 – The formation of Astra Publishing House was announced today by COO and Publisher Ben Schrank. “The time is right for a new publishing house that’s deeply committed to progressive values and that champions authors from all corners of the world. Astra Publishing House’s foremost aim is to build bridges between readers and writers in all nations, and I’m so excited to be part of a venture that speaks to an increasing necessity for a shared global consciousness.”

Astra Publishing House is comprised of Astra House, an entirely new adult trade publisher of American and international literary fiction and poetry, and mission-driven nonfiction.

These guys make Castalia House, which has been around since 2014, look decidedly old school.

In big news for science fiction and fantasy publishing, DAW Books is no longer an independently owned publisher. This morning, Astra Publishing House announced its acquisition of the storied SFF imprint.

In a press release, DAW co-publishers (and, until today, owners) Betsy Wollheim and Sheila Gilbert said, “We are extremely pleased by Astra’s enthusiasm, and thrilled that we will be the sole SFF imprint of their company (a first for DAW). We think this is the perfect fit for us, and it’s exciting and refreshing to be an integral part of a new and growing company. It speaks volumes about Astra’s respect for our company that they have included our entire staff. We’re very happy.”

Previously, DAW was partnered with Penguin Random House, which distributed DAW’s titles. (PRH also distributes Astra Publishing House’s books.)

DAW Books was founded in 1971 by Donald A. Wollheim and his wife, Elsie B. Wollheim. It was the first imprint exclusively devoted to science fiction and fantasy, and over the years has published more than 2000 books from a long list of well-regarded authors, including Patrick Rothfuss, Tad Williams, Melanie Rawn, Tanith Lee, Nnedi Okorafor, and Seanan McGuire.

Something isn’t adding up here. As a general rule, China doesn’t tolerate SJWs very well. For example, Disney can’t release its Marvel movies in China anymore. So, it will be fascinating to see where this goes, especially given the specific mention of that “mission-driven” motivation.

It wouldn’t be surprising if Astra makes a bid for Tor soon as well.

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China Warns Japan

At some point, Japan is going to have to choose between playing second fiddle to China in Asia and being forced to fight a proxy war on behalf of Clown World.

Japan is increasingly trying to justify its ongoing militarization under the pretext of the so-called external threats. Looking around the region, it is Japan that is pushing the regional situation closer to the edge of danger, following the US strategy closely. Tokyo’s move deserves much vigilance. If it continues to act as a pawn of the US in the Asia-Pacific region to stir up trouble here, Japan must be wary of becoming a victim itself of the US or even the Ukraine of East Asia.

Concluding his recent G7 trip in Washington, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Saturday that he shared with the leaders of the bloc his “strong sense of crisis regarding the security environment in East Asia.” “Ukraine may be the East Asia of tomorrow,” the Japanese leader noted, adding that the security of Europe and the Indo-Pacific are “inseparable.”

This is not the first time Kishida has made such a “warning.” In fact, since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, “East Asia is the Ukraine of tomorrow” has become one of his favorite phrases. For instance, he repeated the exact same view in his keynote speech at the 19th Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in June and later that month at the NATO summit.

The message Kishida wants to convey is clear: It calls for more attention to the region and Japan’s so-called security concerns from the US and its NATO allies, which have been focusing on countering Russia in Europe since the war broke out. In particular, Kishida’s words are aimed at China. He is trying to convince other Western countries that China is the next “biggest challenge” that must be jointly dealt with by the West…

“If Japan truly hopes to see a peaceful and stable East Asia, it should seriously reflect upon its history of militarist aggression, draw lessons from it, instead of going about stirring up trouble and fanning the flame,” then Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said in July.

Japan should also reflect on how tightly it wants to be tied to the US strategy. As for now, it’s clear that no matter who is in power in Japan, the country’s foreign policy follows that of the US. But does that really benefit Tokyo? If it continues to act as a pawn of the US in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan must be wary of becoming a victim of the US or even the Ukraine of East Asia.

Japan risks turning itself into ‘Ukraine of Asia’ if it follows US’ strategic line, Global Times, 15 January 2023

I anticipate Japan eventually breaking with the USA rather than going to war with China. The failures of the US military, from Korea to Afghanistan, have not escaped the notice of the Japanese elite, and being an occupied country like Germany, the Japanese have neither a great affection for the USA or any love for Clown World. They will go along with the US program as long as they must, which is to say, until China makes them a carrot-and-stick offer that makes breaking with the USA, with all the chaos and unpleasantries that will follow, the lesser of two evils.

What we’re seeing right now is the diplomatic stick. But I have no doubt whatsoever that China is also offering a politico-economic carrot to Japan behind closed doors, since helping Japan break free of Clown World is almost as important to China as evicting Clown World from Ukraine is to Russia.

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Setting the Theatre

The US military is promising to do for Japan and the Philippines what it has done for Ukraine.

The US and Japanese armed forces are rapidly integrating their command structure and scaling up combined operations as Washington and its Asian allies prepare for a possible conflict with China such as a war over Taiwan, according to the top Marine Corps general in Japan.

The two militaries have “seen exponential increases . . . just over the last year” in their operations on the territory they would have to defend in case of a war, Lieutenant General James Bierman, commanding general of the Third Marine Expeditionary Force (III MEF) and of Marine Forces Japan, told the Financial Times in an interview.

Bierman said that the US and its allies in Asia were emulating the groundwork that had enabled western countries to support Ukraine’s resistance to Russia in preparing for scenarios such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

“Why have we achieved the level of success we’ve achieved in Ukraine? A big part of that has been because after Russian aggression in 2014 and 2015, we earnestly got after preparing for future conflict: training for the Ukrainians, pre-positioning of supplies, identification of sites from which we could operate support, sustain operations.

“We call that setting the theatre. And we are setting the theatre in Japan, in the Philippines, in other locations.”

The thought of “achieving the level of success” the US military has “achieved in Ukraine” should absolutely terrify everyone living in Japan or the Philippines. The Ukrainian military is now down to teenagers, Poles, and US soldiers disguised as “foreign mercenaries” and the NATO-Russian War isn’t even one year old yet. And 12 percent of the Ukrainian population has already fled the country, so where are 15 million Japanese and 14 million Filippinos going to go, and given that both are island countries, how are they going to get there?

I’ve predicted that the USA would collapse sometime around 2033 since the turn of the century, but I never imagined that it would be the result of a military debacle as comprehensive as the coming one appears it’s going to be.

But at least we can answer one question raised by Lieutenant General James Bierman, commanding general of the Third Marine Expeditionary Force (III MEF). Xi Xinping owns the starting pistol for the next stage of WWIII.

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Foreigners Defend Fake Democracy

Clown World has obviously found a playbook it likes.

Two years ago our Capitol was attacked by fanatics, now we are watching it happen in Brazil.

Solidarity with Lula and the Brazilian people.

Democracies around the world must stand united to condemn this attack on democracy.

Bolsonaro should not be given refuge in Florida.

It would be more accurate to say that fake democracies around the world must stand united to condemn popular protests against stolen democracy.

These clowns are going to be in for a real surprise if they continue engaging in war against Russia. The only thing that is preventing the US Capitol – there is no “us”, Ilhan – half the cities on the East Coast from resembling Mariupol is that Vladimir Putin and Xi Xinping don’t see a direct conflict with the US military as furthering their objectives yet.

But the time does appear to be drawing nigh, probably because the US think tanks, which are literally always wrong, asserts the US military will win a war over Taiwan with China due to their simulations.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report, titled ‘The First Battle of the Next War,’ estimates that the US would lose at least two aircraft carriers and that 3,200 American troops would be killed in three weeks of combat, according to CNN, which viewed an advanced copy.

The simulations were run 24 times. Taiwan survived as an autonomous entity in most scenarios, but with heavy losses to all parties. “The United States and Japan lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of service members,” the report predicts.

China’s navy would be left “in shambles” and Beijing could lose 10,000 troops, 155 combat aircraft and 138 major ships.

Meanwhile, Taiwan’s military would be “severely degraded” and left to defend an island “without electricity and basic services.” Japan could also lose approximately 100 aircraft and 26 warships as US bases on its territory come under attack from China.

Perhaps they’re right, for once, but I very much doubt it. I would be absolutely willing to bet that the variables utilized don’t even begin to account for all of the current supply and special forces shortages due to the active support being provided for Ukraine. The simulation obviously also didn’t include North Korea attacking South Korea to further dilute the US military’s resource once the invasion of Taiwan begins. This is likely an optimistic scenario which will be used to justify a) more money for the Navy, b) a draft, c) continued belligerence on the part of US foreign policy, and d) prevent the Taiwanese from striking a Hong Kong-style deal with the Xi administration.

The simulation report can be downloaded here. I’ll read it soon and review it on the Darkstream. Notice that the summary tends to confirm my prior expectations.

CSIS developed a wargame for a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan and ran it 24 times. In most scenarios, the United States/Taiwan/Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan. However, this defense came at high cost. The United States and its allies lost dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and tens of thousands of servicemembers. Taiwan saw its economy devastated. Further, the high losses damaged the U.S. global position for many years. China also lost heavily, and failure to occupy Taiwan might destabilize Chinese Communist Party rule. Victory is therefore not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence immediately.

What I’d like to see is a simulation that accounts for China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran all acting in concert. Because that is what I expect to see happen when WWIII expands and moves into a more active phase.

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