Scientists don’t understand statistics

Which is why it’s good that hundreds of them are signing on to an effort to abandon the concept of “statistical significance”:

Let’s be clear about what must stop: we should never conclude there is ‘no difference’ or ‘no association’ just because a P value is larger than a threshold such as 0.05 or, equivalently, because a confidence interval includes zero. Neither should we conclude that two studies conflict because one had a statistically significant result and the other did not. These errors waste research efforts and misinform policy decisions.

For example, consider a series of analyses of unintended effects of anti-inflammatory drugs. Because their results were statistically non-significant, one set of researchers concluded that exposure to the drugs was “not associated” with new-onset atrial fibrillation (the most common disturbance to heart rhythm) and that the results stood in contrast to those from an earlier study with a statistically significant outcome.

Now, let’s look at the actual data. The researchers describing their statistically non-significant results found a risk ratio of 1.2 (that is, a 20{2b1141b7891b3a9a6e789b6011ce7f6b4c83be08b36e8974656edf3aca7b95b9} greater risk in exposed patients relative to unexposed ones). They also found a 95{2b1141b7891b3a9a6e789b6011ce7f6b4c83be08b36e8974656edf3aca7b95b9} confidence interval that spanned everything from a trifling risk decrease of 3{2b1141b7891b3a9a6e789b6011ce7f6b4c83be08b36e8974656edf3aca7b95b9} to a considerable risk increase of 48{2b1141b7891b3a9a6e789b6011ce7f6b4c83be08b36e8974656edf3aca7b95b9} (P = 0.091; our calculation). The researchers from the earlier, statistically significant, study found the exact same risk ratio of 1.2. That study was simply more precise, with an interval spanning from 9{2b1141b7891b3a9a6e789b6011ce7f6b4c83be08b36e8974656edf3aca7b95b9} to 33{2b1141b7891b3a9a6e789b6011ce7f6b4c83be08b36e8974656edf3aca7b95b9} greater risk (P = 0.0003; our calculation).

It is ludicrous to conclude that the statistically non-significant results showed “no association”, when the interval estimate included serious risk increases; it is equally absurd to claim these results were in contrast with the earlier results showing an identical observed effect. Yet these common practices show how reliance on thresholds of statistical significance can mislead us…. The trouble is human and cognitive more than it is statistical: bucketing results into ‘statistically significant’ and ‘statistically non-significant’ makes people think that the items assigned in that way are categorically different. The same problems are likely to arise under any proposed statistical alternative that involves dichotomization, whether frequentist, Bayesian or otherwise.

Unfortunately, the false belief that crossing the threshold of statistical significance is enough to show that a result is ‘real’ has led scientists and journal editors to privilege such results, thereby distorting the literature.

It’s important to remember that most scientists have no more training in statistics than any other college graduate. And even if they did sit through an extra class or two devoted to the subject, that doesn’t mean they are any good at it.

You failed parenting

I don’t even know where to begin with this:

In her practice, Dr. Levine said, she regularly sees college freshmen who “have had to come home from Emory or Brown because they don’t have the minimal kinds of adult skills that one needs to be in college.”

One came home because there was a rat in the dorm room. Some didn’t like their roommates. Others said it was too much work, and they had never learned independent study skills. One didn’t like to eat food with sauce. Her whole life, her parents had helped her avoid sauce, calling friends before going to their houses for dinner. At college, she didn’t know how to cope with the cafeteria options — covered in sauce.

That’s one benefit of having been raised in a family with a Marine Corps tradition. From childhood, one is informed that there is always and only one answer to every obstacle: improvise, adapt, and overcome!

No collusion, no obstruction

No wonder the media is weeping and gnashing their teeth over the Mueller report:

“[T]he investigation did not establish that members of the Trump campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities.” On the question of obstruction of justice, Barr writes that while Mueller’s report “does not conclude that the President committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him.”

Now that’s over with, let’s see the President get on with draining the Swamp and building the Wall.

The midwit’s pain

Nothing burns a gamma’s soul like public humiliation:

Dr Jordan B Peterson@jordanbpeterson
I’ve never encountered a writer as self satisfied by his own intelligence as this one

Dr Jordan B Peterson@jordanbpeterson
With the clear exception of Vox Day.

Some readers have asked me why Peterson is mentioning Jordanetics now after ignoring it for several months. The reason is that he’s had a very bad week and discovered that despite his success, he’s still not accepted by the intellectual elite whose approval he craves, so he’s lashing out at everything that is causing him emotional pain.

Gammas never forgive and never forget, which is why they’re capable of erupting angrily over something that happened years ago, even when everyone else has forgotten it. In Peterson’s mind, his rejection by Cambridge and the contempt with which he is treated in Jordanetics are essentially the same thing, it’s a malicious refusal to grant him Special Smart Boy status.

Speaking of midwit:

Thank you Niall, for your support @nfergus I’m going ahead with a series of Exodus lectures, regardless, but I think they will be lesser because I will not have had the opportunity to consult with a diverse group of experts.

I think they will be “lesser” too, but more because Dr. Peterson’s grasp of both the Bible and the English language are questionable.

So that’s it?

We’ll see, but it sounds like a whole lot of nothing is all Mueller found:

Attorney General William Barr has scoured special counsel Robert Mueller’s confidential report on the Russia investigation with his advisers, deciding how much Congress and the American public will get to see about the two-year probe into President Donald Trump and Moscow’s efforts to elect him.

Barr was on pace to release his first summary of Mueller’s findings on Sunday, people familiar with the process said.

The attorney general’s decision on what to finally disclose seems almost certain to set off a fight with congressional Democrats, who want access to all of Mueller’s findings — and supporting evidence — on whether Trump’s 2016 campaign coordinated with Russia to sway the election and whether the president later sought to obstruct the investigation.

Barr and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who appointed Mueller and oversaw much of his work, analyzed the report on Saturday, laboring to condense it into a summary letter of main conclusions. Mueller delivered his full report to Barr on Friday.

I’ve been under the weather all weekend, hence the non-posting. Expect normal service to resume on Monday. On the plus side, however, AH:Q #1 is now illustrated and colored, so it will be out soon.

A race, not a religion

This news should conclusively end the long-running shell game:

Judy Maltz reported in Haaretz that the Israeli Rabbinate, which controls conversion, marriage and divorce in Israel, is using DNA testing to verify a person’s Jewishness. Since a person who isn’t Jewish can’t marry a Jew in Israel, which has no civil marriage, the rabbinate is using the DNA test to deny people they consider non-Jews the civil right of marriage.

As if it wasn’t already obvious when Ben Shapiro was bragging about being 100 percent racially pure.

It needs to be said

Dr Jordan B Peterson@jordanbpeterson
Because it needs to be said, apparently here’s what the Alt-Right, in its own words, thinks of my work (much as I hate to advertise the book).

The amusing thing is that anyone who reads Jordanetics is going to realize that Jordan Peterson isn’t an “alt-right darling”, in fact, he isn’t of the Right at all, he’s something much worse and considerably more disturbing than even his most vociferous left-wing critics are claiming.

I look forward to the inevitable one-star fake reviews from the buckos. Because that will TOTALLY stop people from reading it. LEAVE JORDY ALONE!

Devil Mouse to cut up to 10,000 jobs

Disney appears to be a lot more likely to shut down Marvel Comics than anyone likely believes. They’ve already shut down Fox 2000, which produced more revenue from a single movie release than comic sales ever could:

Disney still hasn’t disclosed an official number of jobs they plan to cut. Analysts estimate 4,000-10,000, though several employees say the number being floated among people in the know is closer to 3,000….

One employee on the TV side told THR how disheartened the television employees were at witnessing the carnage in film, but later the ax began to fall there, as well, with 20th Television president Greg Meidel let go.

Disney also laid off Fox Consumer Products boss Jim Fielding, and sources say that of about 50 U.S.-based staffers in that division, five have received pink slips. “I’ve never seen anything like this — from any company,” says a Fox employee who witnessed Thursday’s drama.

Disney has said all along that it intends, due to the merger, to save $2 billion annually by 2021, and such rhetoric usually means jobs will be lost. “This is what happens in mergers,” explains Northlake Capital Management founder Steven Birenberg. “It’s partially the point, as cost savings boost the financials.”

It’s possible that the cost savings will be limited to the Fox acquisition, but in light of the multi-year decline in Marvel revenues combined with the budget imperative, it wouldn’t exactly be shocking to see them shut down the production and pursue a licensing strategy.

Rejecting AIPAC

The anti-BDS movement attacking American First Amendment rights appears to have gone seriously awry, as MoveOn has publicly thrown down a gauntlet in the face of AIPAC.

No Democratic presidential candidates committed to AIPAC conference as liberal group calls for boycott. With some Democrats advocating a re-evaluation of the U.S relationship with Israel, the progressive political advocacy group MoveOn is calling on 2020 candidates to boycott this year’s conference of prominent pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC.

It’s not clear yet which 2020 Democratic candidates — if any — were planning to attend this year. But in the past three presidential cycles, the eventual nominees for both parties spoke at the conference the year of the election.

Iram Ali, MoveOn’s campaign director, told NBC News that the boycott only applies to this year’s conference. That could leave the door open for candidates to attend next year, when the Democratic presidential primary will be in full swing. But she described alignment with AIPAC as anti-progressive.

“It’s important that the next Democratic nominee has progressive values, not only in their domestic policies, but also in their foreign policies,” Ali said. “You cannot be a progressive and support AIPAC because of the policies that they’ve supported.”

It’s mildly amusing to see the shock being expressed by conventional conservatives. Apparently their civnattery prevented them from ever thinking through the obvious implications of the changing Democratic Party demographics. Of course, they’re more inclined to piously denounce anti-semitism – DRRA – than they are to take advantage of the situation.

The Trumpslide 2020 just got that much bigger. It’s not that Jews will vote for Republicans no matter what bones Trump throws Israel, but at least they’ll probably be less enthusiastic about funding his opponents.

Slander is a Judeo-Christian value

Ben Shapiro slanders me and Milo in his outrage over the fact that Jordanetics is still on sale at a bookstore in New Zealand while 12 Rules for Life is not.

There is no way that banning Jordan Peterson’s book from sale in New Zealand is preventing shooting. This is, it’s just utter craziness.

By the way, other books that continue to be on sale at Whitcoulls include Mein Kampf, which has to do with white supremacism, guys, and also, a book called, it’s like, Jordantology, by Vox Day, an outspoken white supremacist, and Milo Yiannopoulos, an alt-right troll. That book is still on sale, apparently, at Whitcoulls. So, just, very, very solid stuff here, from the Left.

This is classic Judeo-Christian wormtonguery from the Littlest Chickenhawk. There is literally nothing even remotely objectionable in Jordanetics except for the language that some of the Jordan Peterson fans direct at me and the disturbing quotes from Jordan Peterson concerning his overheated dreams about his naked grandmother and his hot cousin. The book has literally nothing to do with white supremacy, mass shootings, or New Zealand, but as far as little (((Ben))) is concerned, Jordanetics is right up there with Mein Kampf.

Which, I suggest, testifies to it being a compellingly conclusive takedown of the intellectual fraud that is Jordan Peterson.

Notice how heavily these wormtongues rely upon their inversive rhetorical wizardry to deceive their audiences. Consider that here we have an example of a Neo-Palestinian supremacist who openly boasts about his racial purity calling a mixed-race American Indian who publicly rejects the concept of racial supremacy “an outspoken white supremacist”.

Anyhow, if you don’t understand why Ben and Jordy are crying about Jordanetics, you can acquire the audiobook+ at Arkhaven.