Don’t Trust the Disinformation

To absolutely no one’s surprise, it turns out that Israel lied about the ineffectiveness of Iranian missile strikes:

Israel concealed that Iranian missiles hit several key military sites across the country during the recent 12-day war, The Telegraph reported on Saturday, citing radar data.

The data, provided to the British paper by Oregon State University researchers who track bomb damage using satellite radar, indicates that six Iranian missiles hit five military facilities in the north, south, and center of Israel, including a major air base, an intelligence gathering center, and a logistics base. The extent of the reported damage is unclear.

However, the hits were not publicly reported due to heavy military censorship, according to the report. When pressed on the issue, the Israel Defense Forces, declined to comment, only saying that “all relevant units maintained functional continuity throughout the operation.”

It’s obviously understandable that a military prefers to avoid admitting various weaknesses and failures. There’s nothing surprising or wrong with that. The problem is when the media reports military disinformation despite knowing full well that the military’s press reports are not merely inaccurate, but purposefully and knowingly false.

And the reality is that a lot more than six Iranian missiles hit a lot more than five sites. This is merely the first crack in the disinformation dam.

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War in the Middle Ages

There are three different versions of Charles Oman’s THE ART OF WAR IN THE MIDDLE AGES. The first is the 134-page essay which was published by Oxford University in 1885. The second is the expansion of that essay into a complete volume of 668 pages that was published by Methuen Press in 1898. And the third is the two-volume set, also published by Methuen in 1924 before being republished by Greenhill in 1991.

It is the single-volume edition that we will be publishing in a beautiful leatherbound edition for Castalia History Book 10. For more details, visit the Castalia Library substack.

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China Backs Iran

This might explain why the Western media is so eager to prematurely write off Xi Xinping and his influence in China.

President Xi Jinping of China just got on television in Beijing and, among other things, announced “Our strategic interests in the Middle East will no longer be threatened. We will stand with Iran.”

This is a colossal development in geopolitical matters.

China, like every other nation on earth, understands that Israel started this trouble by making a SNEAK ATTACK upon Iran.   Everyone also knows the USA entered the fray with another SNEAK ATTACK against Iranian nuclear sites.  But that conflict did not go the way the Israelis or Americans thought it would.

It is widely understood that the only reason Israel stopped attacking Iran was because they were running out of anti-ballistic-missile defenses and on the final day of fighting, a full 50% of Iranian missiles were getting through, hitting targets inside Israel.

While Israel had more than adequate ability to continue OFFENSIVE action, they were ONE DAY away from having zero DEFENSIVE ability against Iranian ballistic missiles.

So they got US President Trump to work out a ceasefire to which Iran said “If Israel stops attacking us, we will stop attacking them.”  That was the “ceasefire.”

In the days since, it is widely rumored that the conflict __IS__ going to resume, once Israel loads-up on missile defenses.  Iran is aware of this, and is doing everything it can to prepare. Complicating things further, all countries of the world also found out yesterday, the US is ceasing certain weapons shipments to Ukraine because US inventory is “starting to get too low.”   So even the US is now in weapons trouble after wasting countless weapons, ammunition, and supplies, funding the disastrous Ukraine conflict with Russia.

Now, with Israel having basically run-out of air defense missiles, and with the US “too low” in inventory to continue supplying Ukraine, China steps-up and says they will stand with Iran.

Translation: this marks the long-expected shift of US attention from Ukraine to the Middle East and from Russia to Iran. Xi is giving President Trump and the neocons fair warning that the US will not be permitted to proceed in the Middle East with the uninterrupted hand to which it is accustomed.

UPDATE: 40 J-10 Chinese fighter jets arrived in Iran today, and 20 more are on the way.

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Not All Cancellations are Created Equal

It’s always fascinating to see who gets cancelled because some random nobody made false assertions about someone in an article nobody read, who gets cancelled due to a single tweet, and who doesn’t get cancelled when multiple women accuse him of monstrous acts for which he paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to keep quiet.

“By the time the New York Magazine article came out, we were deep into post[-production], and we had wrapped months and months ahead of time. So that’s when it became a factor for me. Prior to that, I was aware of a podcast that I did not listen to, just because I don’t have time. Do you know what I mean? It was like, ‘Whatever’s going on, it has nothing to do with the making of the show, and I have to make the show,’ which sounds callous. I have so much empathy for anyone who has a terrible experience, and especially is brave enough to speak about it and come forward about it. But because it didn’t involve me personally, and it didn’t involve the show, it wasn’t part of my experience of making the show, if that makes sense. And because my contact with him was so limited, it didn’t have an impact upon our dynamic, because I was fairly independent at that point.”

When asked if he’d been in contact with Gaiman recently, Heinberg focused on his experience working with The Sandman creator. “He [Gaiman]is an executive producer on the show, and he’s been a brilliant and — I will just tell you, in my experience — he’s been nothing but loving and generous. And I don’t know that if I had created a comic and some guy came in and made it into a TV show, I don’t know that I would have been as loving and trusting and generous. And that’s my Neil Gaiman experience.”

Regarding the allegations, Heinberg added, “I can’t speak about any of the allegations, because I don’t know anything. So I feel for everyone involved, and I wish we lived in a world where there was room for nuance, and everybody’s point of view is valid, including Neil’s. And that’s where I am: Everybody has a truth, everybody has an experience as it happened to them. And if there is — this is going way too far — but I’m not involved in it, in any of it. I respect everybody involved, and the worst thing I could do is make it about me in any way, if that makes sense.”

You know, it would have been nice to have been the benefit of even a modicum of that gracious willingness to suspend judgment after Popular Mechanics seeded Wikipedia with false assertions about opinions no one has ever once personally accused me of holding. Not even once in more than fifty years.

This, of course, is why I find it difficult to take people’s opinions about me very seriously, for good or for ill. Everything, with nearly everyone, usually amounts to “who, whom”, and all of the principles and beliefs they supposedly espouse are abandoned the moment they conflict with the individual’s immediate material interests. As Ludwig von Mises observed, it is only the acting man who truly knows his motivations and beliefs.

Everything else is just noise. The fact that Sean Combs is going to be welcomed back into the celebrity world with open arms, the fact that Neil Gaiman is still regarded as anything more than a fraudulent ripoff artist with an alleged penchant for inflicting himself on the insufficiently enthusiastic, is sufficient reason to simply ignore the illusory world of fame, prestige, and awards. Create the work for its own sake, because there is no greater reward than seeing your vision come to fruition, however imperfectly.

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Who Comes After Xi

Xi Xinping has been the architect of China’s advance onto the world stage while simultaneously breaking free of Clown World’s subversion, but it appears that Clown World hasn’t given up on taking control of China yet.

CCP politics is getting wild… So for months rumors and whispers have swirled that Xi Jinping has lost control of the party to Zhang Youxia and the party elders. Xi Jinping supposedly has lost control to Zhang Youxia and the party elders. But this isn’t a simple case of one faction overpowering another. Even within the ranks of the party elders, there are competing priorities for what China’s next phase should look like. Some want to save the regime from collapse. Others want to push for political reforms. Some focus on reviving the economy. And there are those who want absolute control just to survive this life and death struggle.

Youxia has supposedly gambled everything to take down Xi Jinping. For a few weeks, the political center in Beijing appeared deadlocked. Xi Jinping disappeared, and then resisted change. Zhang Youxia, backed by military force, demanded it, and the party elders were caught in the middle trying to maintain a fragile balance. Then, in the last week or so, Xi Jinping suddenly re-emerged in public with greater visibility. He scored a minor win when Beijing announced that he would appear at the September 3rd World War II Victory Day parade. Whether he will inspect the troops or simply give a speech remains unclear.

Meanwhile, Zhang Youxia has been steadily expanding his grip. Miao Hua, one of Xi Jinping’s most trusted generals, was officially removed. Zhang has started moving into the Navy and the Air Force to root out Xi’s remaining loyalists. All the signs and rumors pointing to Xi Jinping’s loss of power reached a new phrase yesterday when Xi Jinping himself made an announcement on behalf of the party. In effect, he confirmed his own decline. After not announcing Politburo meeting minutes in May, the CCP made a single terse announcement at the end of June, saying the meeting was to review “regulations on the work of the Central Party Decision Making and Consolidation Body.

This body basically assumes the very role that Xi Jinping once held in making decisions. Meaning Xi is no longer the highest authority in the CCP. He now has a boss, and that boss is this new decision-making body. This new body isn’t just for advice. It controls the full chain of power from policy formation to execution. In fact, in effect, it is now the de facto highest governing body of the CCP.

Xi has strong support from Putin, but that may not be enough. Remember, the Hu Jintao faction never saw Xi coming, and if these reports are to be considered credible – which may or may not be the case, they may be pure Clown World wishful thinking – then it appears that Xi has not been able to set up a succession plan to continue what have been his generally successful policies.

China’s economic turmoils can hardly be laid at his door, as they are the inevitable result of the credit boom that began long before Xi came to power, and indeed, they are the result of the pro-Western faction within the CCP that is susceptible to the same corrupt blandishments that have bought the interests of politicians around the world from Australia to Zambia.

In any event, the next transitions of power in China and Russia will set the stage for the shape of the coming world order, so it is no surprise that various global factions are interests around the world are actively involved in attempting to influence those processes. And the unexpected ascendances of both Xi and Putin demonstrate that the next leaders may well be men that are not yet on the media’s radar.

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The Price of Takeover

Now the transformation of Silicon Valley into New Delhi Northwest suddenly makes a lot more sense:

A prominent hardline Iranian newspaper has made a shocking claim that Indian software used in Iran were exploited by Israeli intelligence agencies to collect sensitive information on Iranian residents.

The claim, without any evidence, was published by Kayhan, one of the most-read conservative newspapers in the country. In a special news article titled “How did the infiltration software enter the country?” Kayhan said many Iran is dependent on Indian software and programmers due to India’s dominance in the sector.

“Investigation into the Mossad infiltration in Iran revealed a shocking truth. Many of the Indian software used in Iran are actually Israeli and contain backdoors that send live data to Israel. This includes sensitive information such as civil registration, passport data, airport systems, and the like,” Kayhan said.

While there is no evidence for it yet, I would bet that there is a direct link between this program and the installation of pajeets in all the major US tech companies, most likely through the good offices of the big financial companies like Blackstone.

No wonder China and Russia have been determined to keep Big Tech outside their borders. I very much doubt their intelligence services are unaware of the way in which they are little more than massive surveillance machines.

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Conservative is Another Word for Surrender

One wouldn’t have thought it possible, but somehow, David French is actually expanding the borders of cuckservatism:

Writing for National Review Online in 2018, French argued that conservatives must resist the cultural pressure to use someone’s preferred pronouns. “The use of a pronoun isn’t a matter of mere manners. It’s a declaration of a fact. I won’t call Chelsea Manning ‘she’ for a very simple reason. He’s a man. If a person legally changes his name, I’ll use his legal name. But I will not use my words to endorse a falsehood. I simply won’t. We’re on a dangerous road if we imply that treating a person with ‘basic human dignity’ requires acquiescing to claims we know to be false.” Echoing his colleague Michael Brendan Dougherty, French asked, “‘[A]re we allowed to tell the truth?’ Increasingly, the answer is no.”

He concludes: “Treating every single human being with dignity and respect means not just defending their constitutional liberties and showing them basic human kindness, it also means telling the truth—even when the truth is hard. Any compromise that requires conservatives to grant the other side’s false and harmful premise is no compromise at all.”

One wishes that 2018 David French could have a word with 2025 David French. The latest iteration has seemingly abandoned his argument from seven years ago, and is instead celebrating the Dispatch’s hiring of Brian “Jessica” Riedl, a center-right economist who transitioned from male to female within the last year and prominently flies the rainbow flag on his X account. In a recent interview with Riedl, the new David French abandons the counsel of the old French and instead repeatedly refers to Riedl as “she.” In response to the controversy, other ostensible conservatives defended French and Riedl, arguing that politeness requires us to use someone’s preferred pronouns.

I’m reminded of the fact when all the 85-IQ conservatives were absolutely convinced that Jordan Peterson was the Great White Hero who would provide them with intellectual cover after he very publicly and dramatically announced in the interview that made him famouse that while he would use preferred pronouns, he would only do so out of a desire to be polite.

So brave. Much wow. Please clap.

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Shipbuilding is Naval Power

An Analysis of a US-China Naval War

The balance of naval power in the 21st century increasingly hinges on industrial capacity rather than technological superiority alone. Today’s comparison between Chinese and American shipbuilding capabilities reveals a strategic reality reminiscent of the industrial imbalances that defined naval warfare in World War II. China’s shipbuilding capacity is estimated to be 230 times greater than that of the United States, with Chinese shipyards having a manufacturing capacity of roughly 23.25 million tons compared to less than 100,000 tons for U.S. shipyards. This disparity represents one of the most significant shifts in global naval industrial power since the rise of American maritime dominance in the 20th century.

This analysis examines three critical dimensions: the current state of Chinese versus American shipbuilding capacity, the historical lessons from the U.S.-Japan naval competition during World War II, and the potential implications for modern naval warfare scenarios. The findings suggest that while technological advantages and operational expertise remain important, the sheer scale of China’s industrial capacity provides strategic advantages in any prolonged naval conflict, fundamentally altering the calculus of maritime deterrence and warfare.

Part I: Contemporary Shipbuilding Capacity Comparison

China’s Maritime Industrial Revolution

China dominates the global shipbuilding industry, producing over 70% of new orders in 2024, with seven of the world’s top ten shipbuilders being Chinese companies. This transformation represents what analysts describe as the most significant shift in maritime industrial power since the decline of European shipbuilding in the mid-20th century.

As part of its “military-civil fusion” strategy, China is tapping into the dual-use resources of its commercial shipbuilding empire to support its ongoing naval modernization. The China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC), the world’s largest shipbuilder, exemplifies this integration. In 2024 alone, one Chinese shipbuilder constructed more commercial vessels by tonnage than the entire U.S. shipbuilding industry has built since the end of World War II.

China’s shipbuilding supremacy extends across multiple vessel categories:

Commercial Dominance: China secured 388 bulk carrier orders in 2024, accounting for 75% of global activity, and captured 74% of the global tanker market with 322 vessel orders. In container vessels, Chinese dominance is even more pronounced, with 259 vessels representing 81% of global activity.

High-Value Markets: Perhaps most significantly for naval implications, China overtook South Korea in the LPG carrier sector, securing 62 LPG carrier orders compared to South Korea’s 59, giving China a 48% market share. This represents a breakthrough into traditionally sophisticated shipbuilding markets previously dominated by South Korean and Japanese yards.

Infrastructure and Scale: China has “dozens” of commercial shipyards larger and more productive than the largest U.S. shipyards. China’s total shipbuilding capacity increased by 12% to 47.8 million deadweight tons in 2024, with most Chinese shipyards fully booked for the next three to four years.

American Shipbuilding Decline

The United States presents a stark contrast to China’s expansion. The United States has a relatively insignificant capacity at 0.13 percent of global shipbuilding output, compared to China’s 46.59 percent. This represents a dramatic fall from American maritime industrial leadership.

Historical Context: America reached the pinnacle of its shipbuilding history during WWII and continued to serve as the world’s leading shipbuilder for decades thereafter. But competition from subsidized foreign shipyards quickly eroded that lead, especially after U.S. shipbuilding subsidies expired in 1981.

Current Infrastructure: The United States currently boasts the same number of private shipyards capable of producing new warships as it did in 1933: just seven. In addition, the Navy’s four public yards are no longer available for new construction like the ten public yards were in 1933.

Production Rates: From 2012 to 2021, the U.S. fleet added an average of 10.1 new ships a year—even fewer than the inadequate 12.7 production rate before World War I. Although the Fiscal Year 2025 budget requested an increase in shipbuilding to $32.4 billion, the U.S. Navy requested only six new ships, instead of the seven ships projected, remaining below the 10 to 11 new ships needed each year over the next 35 years.

Capacity Constraints: Despite nearly doubling its shipbuilding budget over the last 2 decades, the U.S. Navy hasn’t increased its number of ships. The Virginia-class submarine program exemplifies these challenges: in June 2024, the program’s rate of production was at about 60% of its annual goal—putting it years behind schedule, with much of this delay resting on the shipbuilder’s capacity to meet construction deadlines due to workforce shortages.

Strategic Implications of the Capacity Gap

The shipbuilding disparity carries profound implications beyond simple vessel counts. China’s massive shipbuilding industry would provide a strategic advantage in a war that stretches beyond a few weeks, allowing it to repair damaged vessels or construct replacements much faster than the United States, which continues to face a significant maintenance backlog and would probably be unable to quickly construct many new ships or to repair damaged fighting ships in a great power conflict.

This industrial capacity translates into fleet expansion rates that favor China. The U.S. Defense Department estimated China’s naval fleet would grow from 395 ships in 2025 to 435 by the end of the decade, while the U.S. Navy’s fleet was projected to decrease to 285 ships by 2025 and slightly rebound to 290 by 2030.

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Continue reading “Shipbuilding is Naval Power”

It’s Really Not a Flex

I have no sympathy for Mr. Vylan. None whatsoever. I wouldn’t blame the British people who want their country back for deporting him. but I also wonder if the people of no particular ethnicity who just happen to rush to crush critics of the Israeli Defense Forces like Mr. Vylan for no reason at all ever stop to think through the obvious consequences of their actions and how those actions look to others around the world. There was a time when it was hard to understand the intensity of the Chinese focus on the Great Firewall of China, its decoupling from the West, and the development of a BRICS financial system, but now it’s obvious that the Chinese have been paying attention to the way that the people of the West are being oppressed and have no intention of being subjected to similar restraints.

But at least the so-called Enlightenment ideals that supposedly defined the modern facsimile of the traditional West have been revealed for the satanic deceptions that they always were.

I also wonder how those who are celebrating the deplatforming of IDF critics are going to like it when critics of the People’s Liberation Army and the Russian Armed Forces are subjected to similar treatment.

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JD vs VD

Vox Day is the Lead Editor of Castalia House and the author of the Sigma Game blog. He has been nominated for 7 Hugo Awards and is an Award-winning Cruelty Artist. In this terrifyingly erudite podcast, the publisher, polymath and provocateur tries to persuade James that AI isn’t totally evil. Also on the menu: what’s really happening with the Iran thing; comic books; why Milo and Owen Benjamin get more hate than Vox; composing film scores; and why James’s ‘we’re all going to die soon’ pension plan may not work.

The two-hour interview is available on the Delingpod, as well as on UATV for the subscribers.

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