Trump: the math updated

So, Arizona, which matters, went for Trump, and did so by a 23-percent margin that exceeded the +13 polls by 10 points. Utah, which doesn’t matter much (I had Trump getting 17 delegates there, but he won’t get any), went unanimously to Cruz. So, let’s update the previous delegate math.

You may recall I originally stated this: If Trump wins Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and
California, plus one state from the following list (Arizona, Missouri,
Indiana, Wisconsin), he wins the nomination. Period. Nothing else
matters.

Since then, he has won Florida, Missouri and Arizona, but lost Ohio. So, all he needs now, in practical terms, is Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and California. Those are the three vital states, which the latest, but mostly outdated, polls currently show:

  • Pennsylvania: Trump +17
  • New Jersey: Trump +27
  • California: Trump +16

According to Fox News, after Arizona, Trump has 739 delegates. There are 238 proportional votes to be distributed; due to his strength in New York we can safely expect Trump to win at least 126 of them. That brings him to 865, which means he will need 372 out of the remaining 539 winner-takes-all delegates, or 69 percent of them.

That is three points fewer than he needed before this week; Cruz’s outperformance in Utah didn’t accomplish anything because Trump’s strength in New York outweighs Cruz’s in Utah.

As far as states go, to mathematically close out the nomination, he’ll need, at a minimum, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, California, Indiana, and one smaller state. If Cruz or Kasich can’t win at least one of those four states, (and two if one of them isn’t California), Trump will hit the required 1,237 delegates.

Of course, none of this takes into account the potential game-changing endorsement of Ted Cruz by Jeb Bush. You may want to consider the possibility that Cruz will withdraw from the race and join a monastery in Borneo. And, of course, the endorsement demonstrates the intrinsic falseness of the contention that the GOPe hates and fears Ted Cruz over all.


On the Existence of Gods

ON THE EXISTENCE OF GODS is the response to a public challenge posed by Dr. PZ Myers, a militant atheist who claimed to have never encountered any good arguments for the existence of gods. It is a competitive discourse between a Christian and an atheist, each of whom argue for their position on the subject, after which the arguments are adjudicated by a team of three judges, a Christian, an agnostic, and an atheist, before additional arguments are presented.

The format is compelling and the results are at times surprising, as the discussion takes unexpected twists and turns, while the judges exhibit ruthless impartiality as they criticize the arguments of both sides without mercy or favor. Vox Day, the author of The Irrational Atheist, presents the Christian perspective, while Dominic Saltarelli argues for the atheist position. The debate is wide-ranging and intelligent, but remains civil throughout, even as the momentum swings in favor of one side, and then the other. It also includes an appendix that addresses the argument for a science-based morality presented by Sam Harris in The Moral Landscape.

ON THE EXISTENCE OF GODS is a compelling test of how open the reader’s mind is to the various possibilities of reality, and is a worthy addition to the long history of Man’s contemplation of his own existence in the face of the divine.

From the reviewers:

  • This is the first thing that I’ve read in a very long time that actually had new, novel, and interesting arguments – and both authors achieved this, on both sides of the debate. I find myself giving this book five stars purely for the astonishing
    achievement of presenting novel arguments. After two thousand years of
    debating the topic, that’s a remarkable achievement.
  • Watching a relentlessly logical mind like Vox Day at work is a sight to behold.
  • I enjoyed it very much, not least for the subtlety of the arguments.
    This is a really enjoyable intellectual battle between a believer and an atheist which has the very unusual distinction, in such battles, of being courteous, humorous, and on a high intellectual level.

ON THE EXISTENCE OF GODS is 105 pages, $4.99, and DRM-free.


Primaries: Arizona and Utah

This is to discuss the results of the Republican primaries in Arizona, Utah, and American Samoa. Decision Desk HQ has the live results as they are reported.

Trump is going to win Arizona, the only question is by how much. If he wins big, that’s one more nail in the coffin of the GOPe this year. And as I’ve said, I think he’s very nearly assured the 1,237 delegates required already.



Donald Trump speech to AIPAC

Good evening. I speak to you today as a lifelong supporter and true
friend of Israel. I am a newcomer to politics but not to backing the
Jewish state.

In late 2001, weeks after the attacks on New York City and Washington
– attacks perpetrated by Islamic fundamentalists, Mayor Giuliani
visited Israel to show solidarity with terror victims. I sent him in my
plane because I backed the mission 100%.

In Spring 2004, at the height of violence in the Gaza Strip, I was
the Grand Marshal of the 40th Salute to Israel Parade, the largest
single gathering in support of the Jewish state.

It was a very dangerous time for Israel and frankly for anyone
supporting Israel – many people turned down this honor –I did not, I
took the risk.

I didn’t come here tonight to pander to you about Israel. That’s what
politicians do: all talk, no action. I came here to speak to you about
where I stand on the future of American relations with our strategic
ally, our unbreakable friendship, and our cultural brother, the only
democracy in the Middle East, the State of Israel.

My number one priority is to dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran.
I have been in business a long time. I know deal-making and let me tell
you, this deal is catastrophic – for America, for Israel, and for the
whole Middle East.

The problem here is fundamental. We have rewarded the world’s leading
state sponsor of terror with $150 billion and we received absolutely
nothing in return.


I’ve studied this issue in greater detail than almost anybody. The
biggest concern with the deal is not necessarily that Iran is going to
violate it, although it already has, the bigger problem is that they can
keep the terms and still get to the bomb by simply running out the
clock, and, of course, they keep the billions.

The deal doesn’t even require Iran to dismantle its military nuclear
capability! Yes, it places limits on its military nuclear program for
only a certain number of years. But when those restrictions expire, Iran
will have an industrial-size military nuclear capability ready to go,
and with zero provision for delay no matter how bad Iran’s behavior is.
When I am president, I will adopt a strategy that focuses on three
things when it comes to Iran.

First, we will stand up to Iran’s aggressive push to destabilize and
dominate the region. Iran is a very big problem and will continue to be,
but if I’m elected President, I know how to deal with trouble. Iran is a
problem in Iraq, a problem in Syria, a problem in Lebanon, a problem in
Yemen, and will be a very major problem for Saudi Arabia. Literally
every day, Iran provides more and better weapons to their puppet states.
Hezbollah in Lebanon has received sophisticated anti-ship weapons,
anti-aircraft weapons, and GPS systems on rockets. Now they’re in Syria
trying to establish another front against Israel from the Syrian side of
the Golan Heights.

In Gaza, Iran is supporting Hamas and Islamic Jihad – and in the West
Bank they are openly offering Palestinians $7,000 per terror attack and
$30,000 for every Palestinian terrorist’s home that’s been destroyed.

Iran is financing military forces throughout the Middle East and it
is absolutely indefensible that we handed them over $150 billion to
facilitate even more acts of terror.

Secondly, we will totally dismantle Iran’s global terror network.
Iran has seeded terror groups all over the world. During the last five
years, Iran has perpetrated terror attacks in 25 different countries on
five continents. They’ve got terror cells everywhere, including in the
western hemisphere very close to home. Iran is the biggest sponsor of
terrorism around the world and we will work to dismantle that reach.

Third, at the very least, we must hold Iran accountable by
restructuring the terms of the previous deal. Iran has already – since
the deal is in place – test-fired ballistic missiles three times. Those
ballistic missiles, with a range of 1,250 miles, were designed to
intimidate not only Israel, which is only 600 miles away but also
intended to frighten Europe, and, someday, the United States.

Do you want to hear something really shocking? As many of the great
people in this room know, painted on those missiles – in both Hebrew and
Farsi – were the words “Israel must be wiped off the face of the
earth.”

What kind of demented minds write that in Hebrew? And here’s another
twisted part – testing these missiles does not even violate the horrible
deal that we made!

The deal is silent on test missiles but those tests DO violate UN
Security Council Resolutions. The problem is, no one has done anything
about it. Which brings me to my next point – the utter weakness and
incompetence of the United Nations.

The United Nations is not a friend of democracy. It’s not a friend to
freedom. It’s not a friend even to the United States of America, where
as all know, it has its home. And it surely isn’t a friend to Israel.

With President Obama in his final year, discussions have been
swirling about an attempt to bring a security council resolution on the
terms of an eventual agreement between Israel and Palestine. Let me be
clear: An agreement imposed by the UN would be a total and complete
disaster. The United States must oppose this resolution and use the
power of our veto. Why? Because that’s not how you make a deal.

Deals are made when parties come to the table and negotiate. Each
side must give up something it values in exchange for something it
requires. A deal that imposes conditions on Israel and the Palestinian
Authority will do nothing to bring peace. It will only further
delegitimize Israel and it would reward Palestinian terrorism, because
every day they are stabbing Israelis – and even Americans.

Just last week, American Taylor Allen Force, a West Point grad who
served in Iraq and Afghanistan, was murdered in the street by a
knife-wielding Palestinian. You don’t reward that behavior, you confront
it!

It’s not up the United Nations to impose a solution. The parties must
negotiate a resolution themselves. The United States can be useful as a
facilitator of negotiations, but no one should be telling Israel it
must abide by some agreement made by others thousands of miles away that
don’t even really know what’s happening.

When I’m president, believe me, I will veto any attempt by the UN to
impose its will on the Jewish state. You see, I know about deal-making –
that’s what I do. I wrote The Art of the Deal, one of the all-time
best-selling books about deals and deal making. To make a great deal,
you need two willing participants.

We know Israel is willing to deal. Israel has been trying to sit down
at the negotiating table, without pre-conditions, for years. You had
Camp David in 2000, where Prime Minister Barak made an incredible offer –
maybe even too generous. Arafat rejected it.

In 2008, Prime Minister Olmert made an equally generous offer. The
Palestinian Authority rejected it. Then John Kerry tried to come up with
a framework and Abbas didn’t even respond, not even to the Secretary of
State of the United States of America!

When I become President, the days of treating Israel like a
second-class citizen will end on Day One. I will meet with Prime
Minister Netanyahu immediately. I have known him for many years and we
will be able to work closely together to help bring stability and peace
to Israel and to the entire region.

Meanwhile, every single day, you have rampant incitement and children
being taught to hate Israel and hate the Jews. When you live in a
society where the firefighters are the hero’s little kids want to be
firefighters.

When you live in a society where athletes and movie stars are heroes,
little kids want to be athletes and movie stars. In Palestinian
society, the heroes are those who murder Jews – we can’t let this
continue. You cannot achieve peace if terrorists are treated as martyrs.
Glorifying terrorists is a tremendous barrier to peace.

In Palestinian textbooks and mosques, you’ve got a culture of hatred
that has been fermenting there for years, and if we want to achieve
peace, they’ve got to end this indoctrination of hatred. There is no
moral equivalency. Israel does not name public squares after terrorists.
Israel does not pay its children to stab random Palestinians.

You see, what President Obama gets wrong about deal making is that he
constantly applies pressure to our friends and rewards our enemies.
That pattern, practiced by the President and his administration,
including former Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, has repeated
itself over and over and has done nothing but embolden those who hate
America. We saw that with releasing $150 billion to Iran in the hope
that they would magically join the world community – It’s the same with
Israel and Palestine.

President Obama thinks that applying pressure to Israel will force
the issue, but it’s precisely the opposite. Already, half the population
of Palestine has been taken over by the Palestinian ISIS in Hamas, and
the other half refuses to confront the first half, so it’s a very
difficult situation but when the United States stands with Israel, the
chances of peace actually rise. That’s what will happen when I’m
president.

We will move the American embassy to the eternal capital of the
Jewish people, Jerusalem – and we will send a clear signal that there is
no daylight between America and our most reliable ally, the state of
Israel.

The Palestinians must come to the table knowing that the bond between
the United States and Israel is unbreakable. They must come to the
table willing and able to stop the terror being committed on a daily
basis against Israel and they must come to the table willing to accept
that Israel is a Jewish State and it will forever exist as a Jewish
State.

Thank you very much, its been a great honor to be with you.

——————–

My comment: This is better than I would have expected, not as good as I would have hoped. It is not a ritual genuflection, but a practical acknowledgement of the current realities. The deal with Iran is ridiculous. Attacking the UN is the right thing to do and may be a harbinger of more positive developments on that front. Moving the embassy is irrelevant, but a nice gesture.

At no point is there any indication that he is inclined to wage Israel’s wars for them as the previous two presidents have done, and that is the main thing.


Rabid Puppies press release

This is the text of the press release that went out to the media yesterday.

RABID PUPPIES 2016 Make the Hugos Great

On the heels of last year’s magnificent campaign, which successfully placed 58 of its 67 recommended nominees on the ballot and inspired no less than 5 No Awards, the Supreme Dark Lord of the Evil Legion of Evil is proud to Make the Hugos Great Again by announcing his recommendations for the 2016 Hugo Awards.

“Many of the things that were said about the Puppies last year by luminaries of the field such as George R.R. Martin, David Gerrold, and John Scalzi were deeply hurtful,” said Vox Day, as he quaffed blood from the silvered skull of an SJW. “But I think we’ve learned from our past mistakes and put together a kindler, gentler, list of recommendations that will entertain the casual reader of science fiction and fantasy, as well as inform the more serious observers of the field what a ghastly collection of criminally sick freaks have been inhabiting the community of science fiction fandom for decades.”

Some of the more notable recommendations include:

  • Moira Greyland’s account of her childhood abuse at the hands of her mother, the award-winning science fiction writer Marion Zimmer Bradley
  • Five-time 2015 Hugo nominee John C. Wright’s novel Somewhither: A Tale of the Unwithering Realm.
  • SF great Jerry Pournelle, whose groundbreaking There Will Be War series returned after a 25-year absence due to the end of the Cold War.
  • “Safe Space as Rape Room”, a five-part series on the pedophiles and child molesters who have preyed upon children in the science fiction community.
  • “Space Raptor Butt Invasion”, a sensuous space romance that is a tribute to true diversity in science fiction.

A complete list of the recommendations for all 16 categories, including the 2016 Campbell Award for Best New Writer, can be found here: Rabid Puppies 2016.

“You may now commence the ritual denunciations,” the Supreme Dark Lord added. “Open up your hate and let it flow into me.”

About the Supreme Dark Lord

Described as “the most despised man in science fiction”, Vox Day is a three-time Hugo Awards nominee, the Lead Editor of Castalia House, and a bestselling political philosopher. His blogs, Vox Popoli and Alpha Game, average 2.2 million pageviews per month.

  • “I think I have made my disgust with Vox Day and his Rabid Puppies clear.” —George R. R. Martin, author of A Game of Thrones, 19-time Hugo nominee.
  • “Vox Day rises all the way to ‘downright evil’.” —Patrick Nielsen Hayden, Manager of Science Fiction, Tor Books, 15-time Hugo nominee
  • “Vox Day is a real bigoted shithole of a human being.” —John Scalzi, author of Redshirts, 9-time Hugo nominee
  • “SF esteems Vox Day more than me. That’s a hard pill to swallow.” —Adam Roberts, Campbell Memorial Award winner.

A portrait in projection

The usual suspects are upset about Sad Puppies, albeit for different reasons this time. It’s always something.

Declan Finn addresses the topic with his usual flair:

The level of stupid maybe be getting to me.  The Puppy Kickers — like Damien — seem to be going full on insane.  They’ve apparently decided that they can just spew insults, and it’s reality. Wright will never be a pro writer again because they hate him, and anyone they hate must be blackballed. Brad and Larry are demagogues, because Damien said so — and they “ran away” because Brad and Larry didn’t want to play with this crap anymore.

Then again, these ARE the same people that insist that Brad ran away to the Middle East, because being shot at was preferable to standing up to the great and powerful Puppy Kickers. Yes, there are some idiots who’ve actually stated this, online. In public.

See what I mean about the stupid? It burns a LOT.

Damien doesn’t even seem to consider that, had more of his friends came to play at the SP4 site, they could have taken over the list entirely. But that would have meant engaging with people who disagree with him.

    .@Sinapus Let me make this clear then. I don’t want messages from you or any Sad Puppies. Go away, don’t message me again.
    — Damien Walter (@damiengwalter) March 19, 2016

Yes, because actually talking with people who disagree with him might fracture Damien’s delicate hold on his reality. Besides, he wouldn’t want to be sullied with talking with the subhumans, now would he?

It makes you wonder who the heck are supposed to be the rabid ones here. Because I have to be honest, the level of paranoia that you have to induce in order to turn “Fans like my work” into “IT’S A TRAP” does not say good things about the bubble they’re living in. And Damien’s BS is so thick, he could fertilize acres every time he opens his mouth. His level of schizoid makes me wonder how he could tie his shoes. It’s obvious he has delusions of adequacy.

And of course, SP4 states that it is the exact same thing as Locus Magazine’s recommended list for the Hugos. The only difference? Locus seems to be in Tor’s back pocket, while actual fans out in the real world are voting for Sad Puppies.

Given the 3rd Law of SJW, what do we know about Damien’s accusation? First, that he is bitter. And second, that he believes his own pro writing career is over. After all, the comparison of his own career with Mr. Wright’s can only lead to one conclusion: it’s not Mr. Wright whose career is struggling:


My Lovesick Zombie Boy Band by Damien Walter
7 reviews, 3.1 rating
Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #510,062 Paid in Kindle Store
    #557 > Fantasy > New Adult & College 

Iron Chamber of Memory by John C. Wright
16 reviews, 5.0 rating
Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #3,477 Paid in Kindle Store
    #19 > Literature & Fiction > Contemporary Fiction > Fantasy

Speaking as one of his publishers, and one of his smaller publishers, I can testify that Mr. Wright sold more books in the five days since his most recent novel was released than Mr. Walter has sold in his life.


Bombs in Brussels

Brussels Zaventem airport explosions: At least 11 dead as third bomb ‘found on runway’. Third bomb found on runway, reports of more explosions at three metro stations, including one close to EU buildings.

BREAKING NEWS: At least 11 13 23 28 34 people dead and 50 150 187 wounded after two explosions rock Brussels Airport in ‘suicide bombing’ – as SECOND ‘terror attack’ hits Metro station near EU headquarters SECOND ‘terror attack’ hits Metro station in city centre.

  • Shouts ‘in Arabic’ heard before two explosions went off near the American Airlines check-in desk at 8am (7am GMT)
  • Terrified passengers covered in blood ran for their lives after explosion sent ‘shockwaves’ through terminal building
  • Reports of another explosion at a Metro station near the EU headquarters in the Maelbeek area of central Brussels
  • Evacuated passengers are being ferried onto buses and are being driven to a ‘crisis centre’ away from the airport
  • Comes a day after Belgium minister warned of revenge attacks after arrest of Paris attacks suspect Salah Abdeslam 
 Immigrants are why you can’t have nice things.

    One would think this will tend to speed up Reconquesta 2.0 in Europe, but we’ll see. Regardless, don’t get too complacent. This sort of attack is coming the USA soon thanks to the millions of Islamic immigrants who have been permitted to enter the country. I would not be at all surprised if it started in Minnesota, most likely at the Megamall.

    It belatedly occurs to me that there is an important Republican primary today. These immigrant attacks mean that Donald Trump will win Arizona handily, which means that he is virtually guaranteed the delegates he needs.

    UPDATE: “Brussels Fire rep. tells NBC that there have been at least 4 explosions at different metro stations.” 


    Trump declares noninterventionist foreign policy

    I realize many are skeptical that Trump is going to do anything that he says he is going to do. But look at the risks the man is taking. Look at the limbs he is willing to stroll confidently out upon. This is genuinely remarkable in American politics:

    Donald Trump outlined an unabashadly noninterventionist approach to world affairs Monday, telling The Washington Post’s editorial board that he questions the need for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which has formed the backbone of Western security policies since the Cold War.

    The meeting at The Post covered a range of issues, including media libel laws, violence at his rallies, climate change, the NATO and the U.S. presence in Asia.

    Speaking ahead of a major address on foreign policy later Monday in front of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, Trump said he advocates an aggressive U.S. posture in the world with a light footprint. In spite of unrest abroad, especially in the Middle East, Trump said the United States must look inward and steer its resources toward rebuilding domestic infrastructure.

    “I do think it’s a different world today, and I don’t think we should be nation-building anymore,” Trump said. “I think it’s proven not to work, and we have a different country than we did then. We have $19 trillion in debt. We’re sitting, probably, on a bubble. And it’s a bubble that if it breaks, it’s going to be very nasty. I just think we have to rebuild our country.”

    He added: “I watched as we built schools in Iraq and they’re blown up. We build another one, we get blown up. We rebuild it three times and yet we can’t build a school in Brooklyn. We have no money for education because we can’t build in our own country. At what point do you say, ‘Hey, we have to take care of ourselves?’ So, I know the outer world exists and I’ll be very cognizant of that. But at the same time, our country is disintegrating, large sections of it, especially the inner cities.”

    Granted, George Bush ran for office on “a humble foreign policy” and we all know how that turned out. But at least we know he’s not going to go to war with Russia over Ukraine. It should be very interesting to hear what he has to say to AIPAC later today. I’m going to guess it won’t be the ritual genuflection that is customary for Republican candidates.

    I mean, he’s openly talking about shutting down NATO. This is serious stuff.

    UPDATE: Trump speech at AIPAC.


    We got us a runner

    Matt Walsh bravely strode forth to conquer the Lion Guard:

    Matt Walsh ‏@MattWalshBlog
    I will debate any conservative media Trump shill who made my blacklist. I’m “just a blogger” so it should be easy to beat me, right?

    Someone brought it to my attention, and as will probably surprise no one, I answered the call:

    Ronald James ‏@ron3name
    If you’re serious hit up @voxday. He’s pretty good at demolishing churchian cucks, when he has time and can be bothered.

    Supreme Dark Lord ‏@voxday
    .@ron3names @MattWalshBlog I will debate you any time, Matt. And yes, it will be very easy to beat you up.

    Thereby prompting Matt to imitate a contortion artist in coming up with excuses for why he is only going to debate people with their own show, which is to say, people who don’t know who Matt Walsh is and could not care less. One observer on Twitter characterized it thusly:

    >be a cuck
    >offer to debate
    >vox: ahem
    >ohshit.exe
    >to cuck/not to cuck
    >”I don’t debate trolls!”
    >secret king wins…

    See, Matt is TOO IMPORTANT a blogger to debate another blogger. Especially one whose readership he DWARFS!

    Matt Walsh ‏@MattWalshBlog
    My readership is several million a month. Dwarfs yours and it’s not close.

    And yet, he keeps running, running, running. Diagnosis: Gamma.