Trumpslide brewing

You may recall that in response to dh’s citation of the state poll data pointing to an easy Hillary win this summer, I responded that it was too early to pay attention to the state polls, and that those polls only began to be relevant at least one month after the conventions. I also stated that if there was to be a Trumpslide, we would have to see the state polls start moving in Trump’s direction after that time.

What is interesting is that we are now seeing precisely the sort of movement that is necessary for a Trumpslide to take place, even before the first presidential debate. Consider the way in which the following states have changed in the last month according to the Reuters polls, and remember that Reuters already tweaked their methodology once to favor Clinton.

  • Florida has swung 11 points toward Trump moving the state from solid Hillary to marginal Trump.
  • Pennsylvania has swung 5 points toward Trump moving the state from solid Hillary to “Too Close To Call.”
  • Nevada has also swung 5 points toward Trump moving the state from marginal Hillary to marginal Trump.
  • South Carolina has swung 8 points toward Trump moving the state from “Too Close To Call” to solid Trump.
  • Colorado has swung 6 points toward Trump moving the state from marginal Hillary to marginal Trump.
  • Iowa has swung 11 points toward Trump moving the state from marginal Hillary to solid Trump. 

It is clear that Trump has all the momentum, even before the news of the new round of Muslim attacks in America have been taken into account. The national polls also reflect this degree of movement, as Clinton was +8 in the RCP average only five weeks ago, and will almost certainly be behind by the end of the week.

While it is far from certain that this Trumpward movement will continue at its current pace, if it does, Donald Trump will win in a landslide. I am not predicting a Trumpslide on that basis, for as you know, I already predicted one months ago. All I am pointing out is that the scenario for not only a Trump victory, but an overwhelming Trump victory, continues to remain a legitimate possibility on the basis of the current evidence.


NFL Week 2

The weekly NFL open thread. Sorry for the delay, but I haven’t been paying attention today because the Vikes-Packers are the late game.

I have to say, I love seeing the LOS ANGELES Rams in their traditional blue-and-yellow.


The decline and fall of Angela Merkel

Germans continue to turn away from Angela Merkel and the CDU:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party suffered a bruising loss in Berlin state elections Sunday while the right-wing populist AfD gained fresh support, capitalising on anger over her open-door refugee policy.

The anti-Islam Alternative for Germany party won over 12 percent, according to public broadcasters’ projections, in the capital which has long prided itself on being a hip, diverse and multicultural city.

The strong AfD result, thanks to support especially in the vast tower block districts in Berlin’s former communist east, meant it has now won opposition seats in 10 of Germany’s 16 states, a year ahead of national elections.

Merkel’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) won just 18 percent — its worst post-war result in the city, before or after the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall — likely spelling the end of its term as junior coalition partner to the Social Democrats (SPD), who won around 22 percent.

It’s not as if things are going to get better for the CDU if they don’t promptly return all of the migrants who have invaded Germany over the last year.


An interview with Decius Mus

American Greatness interviews the author of the Flight 93 article:

AG: Michael Walsh, the PJMedia columnist and author of The Devil’s Pleasure Palace, notes that the most vociferous in the conservative NeverTrump camp tend to be those under 50. Do you think there is a generation gap among conservatives and, if so, what accounts for it?

It does seem that, the younger a (nominal) conservative is, the more likely he is to be against Trump. I think this is owing to two things, at least. This will sound like an old man being cranky, so take it with due allowances.

The first is that the young are not educated. Not that I got the greatest education, but it was pretty good. Still the people who taught me were far more educated than I am now, and the oldest ones were the best educated of the bunch. And my sense is that their teachers—most of whom I never met, or were even dead before I was born—were better educated than even they were. So in terms of education and knowledge, we’re on a downward trend and have been for a while.

What that means is that young conservatives learn conservatism as a checklist. They don’t really read books, except recent “conservative” bestsellers. They read excerpts from the Federalist at a summer fellowship and think that’s an education. Not to knock summer fellowships, but they are supposed to be gateways, not complete educations. And they don’t really read anything harder or deeper than the Federalist (not to knock it, either, but the Founders read Aristotle, Cicero, Locke, Sidney, Montesquieu and more).

So on the basis of a rather flimsy education, they think they know what conservatism is, but it’s just a catechism for them, a hymnal. And they compare Trump’s policy positions to their hymnal and they see discrepancies and they just default to “Heretic! Not conservative!”

Which points to the second, which is that older conservative intellectuals tend to have better educations and read more widely so they have a broader perspective. They also have the benefit of hard-won experience and an understanding that compromise, course changes, tactical adjustments and so on are sometimes necessary. They’re less “idealistic” in the sense of uncompromisingly foolish. And—speculating here—they have seen America at its best, or when it was much better, so they know we’ve fallen and they don’t want to see us fall further.

The kidlets, as I call them, were raised on a diet of racism-this and equality-that and that’s-not-who-we-are, so they can’t process anything that seems to contradict the narrative. To them “conservatism” is the 1980 campaign’s economic platform spot-welded to Millennial identity politics and sexual libertarianism. Freedom!

He’s absolutely correct. As John Red Eagle and I have demonstrated, conservatism is something very different than most self-described conservatives believe. Conservatives don’t have an ideology and they don’t even understand what it is they are supposedly trying to conserve. It’s little more than an attitude and a pose; they can’t even reasonably describe themselves as Constitutionalists because they oppose the very purpose of the U.S. Constitution, not that they are aware of that.

Anyhow, it’s a really good interview. Read the whole thing.


Trump goes transnational

This is from a Lega Nord rally in northern Italy. The man in the center of the picture is Matteo Salvini, a Euro MP and an official of the quasi-separatist Northern League, which favors independence for Padania, which is an artificial region which includes Toscana, Lombardia, and the Veneto, and has a population of 33 million. La Val Seriana is an area near Bergamo; beautiful country.


Moggies at the Mall

It’s only a matter of time before the Somalis stage a much bigger, much more lethal attack at the Megamall. But seriously, St. Cloud? Aside from the Vikings at training camp, there wasn’t a single black, Arab, or Asian to be seen in St. Cloud when I was young.

At least eight people were taken to a hospital with injuries after a stabbing attack at a Minnesota shopping mall that ended with the suspected attacker, who reportedly made references to Allah, shot dead by an off-duty police officer, authorities said.

The attack took place at Crossroads Center mall in St. Cloud.

St. Cloud Police Chief Blair Anderson said during a news conference shortly after midnight that eight people were taken to St. Cloud Hospital with non-life-threatening injuries following the attack first reported about 8.15pm Saturday.

One person was admitted. No further details were released. During the news conference, Anderson said the attacker who was armed with a knife made references to Allah during the attack and asked at least one person whether they were Muslim.

And let’s not forget the bombing yesterday in New York City. At this point, it’s clear that Americans will be better off fighting an ethnic war sooner rather than later. Stabbings here, bombings there, shootings everywhere; that is the new US reality. There is not going to be any peace until the USA is 90 percent American again.

You cannot live in a civilized manner among barbarians, and tens of millions of barbarians are now inside the gates. Mass immigration is war.

Interesting times are upon us because the previous two generations were stupid. Better carry. You never know when you’ll need it.


FFS

If this is true, and not a mistake, Obama has decided to come out openly in support of Islamic State:

Syria’s army general command said warplanes from the U.S.-led coalition bombed a Syrian army position at Jebel Tharda near Deir al-Zor airport on Saturday, paving the way for Islamic State fighters to overun it.

The air strike killed Syrian soldiers and was “conclusive evidence” that the U.S. and its allies support the jihadist group, the Syrian army said in a statement, noting that the strike was “dangerous and blatant aggression”.

Syria’s army controls Deir al-Zor airport and parts of the city which are otherwise entirely surrounded by territory held by Islamic State.

This would also appear to be in violation of the recent US-Russian ceasefire agreement.

UPDATE: The US admitted responsibility for the bombing.

The Obama administration officially expressed it’s “regret” for an airstrike that killed Syrian forces with a senior White House official saying “The United States has relayed our regret through the Russian Federation for the unintentional loss of life of Syrian forces.”


Mailvox: infrastructure fragility

From a reader this morning

A pipeline that carried 40%+ of the gasoline for the southeast and east ruptured last week.  No quick fix due to the quarter million gallons of gasoline that spilled and is held in a retention pond.  I’ve thought for years that this pipe would be a good terrorist target and, though this isn’t terrorism, it’s going to wreck havoc in the southeast and east.  Nashville is already out of gas and it’s going to cascade.  This could end up being a huge election issue given Obama’s stopping new pipeline construction during his entire term.

If you Google the story the American media is almost silent, covered by British and RT.  That won’t last for long.  [Redacted] lives in Nashville.  I gave her a heads up yesterday so they could get topped off and this morning 80 percent of the stations are closed in her area.

If you’re in the southeast, fill up your gas tanks now and lay in some supplies.

UPDATE: The story is now public: Alabama, Tennessee, & Georgia Declare States Of Emergency As Gas Shortages Loom After Pipeline Leak

UPDATE: North Carolina has declared a state of emergency too.


The twilight of US Jewry

Now we know why (((Mark Levin))) and (((Ben Shapiro))) are suddenly frantic to get back in the good graces of the Trump-supporting Republicans. The message has clearly been delivered, as this Jerusalem Post article demonstrates that Israel is gradually becoming aware that the Democrats are actively anti-Israel, while the Republican masses are done pursuing Israeli interests at the expense of American interests:

The problem on the Republican side of the aisle then is not that the party has turned against the Jews. The problem is that a large contingent of prominent Jewish Republicans has decided to commit political suicide.

Back in the mid-1970s, disgusted by the radicalization of the Democratic Party, particularly in connection with its prosecution of the Cold War, a significant group of predominantly Jewish intellectuals led by the likes of Irving Kristol and Norman Podhoretz came to the conclusion that they could no longer maintain their loyalty to the Democratic Party – which had been their political home for decades. With the rise of Ronald Reagan on the Republican side of the aisle, these prominent Jews broke with the Democrats, called themselves neoconservatives, and cast their lot with the GOP.

Some members of this group received influential appointments in the Reagan administration. Others used their intellectual skills and their media outlets to set out the intellectual basis for much of Reagan’s foreign and economic policies.

These Jewish Republicans enjoyed a far less congenial relationship with Reagan’s successor George H.W. Bush. But all the same, by and large they remained loyal Republicans. For their efforts they were appointed to significant positions in the George W. Bush administration.

After the September 11 attacks, prominent Jewish Republicans like Bush’s deputy defense secretary Paul Wolfowitz rose to national fame as they were widely credited – and often credited themselves – with shaping Bush’s counter-terrorism policies, including his decision to overthrow the Iraqi government and to make democratizing the Islamic world the goal of his counter-terrorism strategies worldwide.

Their star rose as quickly as it fell. As the public soured on Bush’s war policies, the first to be blamed for his failures were the Jewish Republicans who had been so outspoken about their roles in shaping his policies.

Some of the criticism was substantive and deserved. Much of it was bigoted.

The Republican establishment, for its part, remained staunchly loyal to Bush’s policies. Both John McCain and Mitt Romney supported them to varying degrees during their presidential bids.

That support was not shared by Republican voters, however. Over Obama’s eight years in office, the Republican base and as well as lawmakers became increasing hostile to the democratic interventionism championed by the Bush administration and disaffected with the war in Iraq.

Seemingly unaware of the shift, the same Jewish Republican policy-makers and writers most identified in the public mind with Bush’s failures went into the 2016 race assuming that as was the case in 2008 and 2012, the party would choose a candidate that largely supported their views.

Two prominent Republican candidates, Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. Jeb Bush, met that expectation.

But contrary to their expectations, Rubio and Bush were flops. The voters rejected them. The two candidates that secured significant support – Sen. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump, were outspoken opponents of Bush’s policies.

Rather than repeat their practice from 1992 and accept the will of their fellow Republicans, this year the most prominent members of the Jewish Republican elite have opted to attack Trump and his voters.

That is, they have decided to commit political suicide.

Wolfowitz, along with Bush’s second term Treasury secretary Hank Paulson and several prominent lower level Jewish Republican policy-makers, announced they are voting for Clinton. Most members of the Jewish Republican elite have sufficed with refusing to endorse Trump. Some have become his most outspoken and vituperative critics.

Objectively, their behavior is irrational. With the radical takeover of the Democratic Party, these Republican rebels cannot hope to receive influential roles in a Clinton administration even if she throws some table scraps in their direction. And by attacking Trump and his voters, they are dooming themselves to political homelessness for at least a generation.

The prominence of Jewish Republicans in the Never Trump camp is liable to impact more than their personal career prospects. It is liable to adversely affect Republican attitudes toward Jews as Jews. And to their disgrace, the Jewish Republicans at the heart of the Never Trump camp are playing right into this unhealthy dynamic.

This week the Intelligence Squared debating society held a public debate in New York. The debate was posted on Real Clear Politics website.

Two sides debated the proposition that the American elites are to blame for Trump’s rise. Arguing in favor of the proposition were two Christian journalists – Tim Carney and Ben Domenech.

Arguing against it were two Jewish journalists – Bret Stephens (a former Jerusalem Post editor-in-chief) and Jennifer Rubin.

Both Rubin and Stephens voiced their support for Clinton’s controversial assertion that half of Trump’s supporters are deplorable, unworthy of attention, un-American and irredeemable.

For their part, Domenech and Carney argued that Stephens and Rubin were ignoring the social and economic dislocation of the lower middle class. They argued that the suffering of members of this group has caused millions of Americans to feel betrayed by their political elites and turn to Trump to put a stop to a political game they believe is rigged against them.

Two-thirds of the way through the event, Carney brought up religion.

Carney allowed that many of Trump’s supporters are indeed bigoted. However, he said that “as a Christian,” he couldn’t accept that they are irredeemable because Christianity teaches that all men can be saved.

Rather than grant his point or simply ignore it, Rubin chose to respond in the name of Judaism. In so doing, she turned the debate into a contest between Christianity and Judaism.

Incorrectly arguing that Judaism does not believe in repentance as a road to redemption, Rubin pointed to herself and Stephens and said sardonically, “We Jews just believe in good and evil. We don’t believe that everyone is redeemable.”

The Christians won the debate in a knockout.

The heart of the problem, of course, is that far too many Jews, like (((Bret Stephens))) and (((Jennifer Rubin))), don’t give a damn about America or about Americans. Which would be fine; neither do most Somalis or Argentinians. The problem is that US-based Jews have been influencing US foreign and domestic policy to the detriment of Americans for the last seven decades, and Americans are now increasingly aware of this. Hence the rise of Donald Trump and the rise of the Alt-Right, among other things.

That’s why Jewish Republicans like (((Levin))), (((Shapiro))) and (((Goldberg))) are so uncharacteristically out of tune with the American electorate. Their behavior is proof of the wisdom of the Christ they reject, who warned us that a man cannot serve two masters.

Israel has nothing to fear from America, but anyone who insists on trying to convince Americans to continue acting against their own national interest eventually will, whether one prefers to regard them as an foreign enemy or a domestic one. Just as those who oppose Zionism are anti-semitic, anyone who opposes nationalism is an enemy of that nation.

Regardless, it should be readily apparent that anyone who first seeks “what is good for the Jews” rather than “what is good for the Americans” is no genuine American. In fact, it is very clear that they hate America and Americans.

“The non-Europeanization of America is heartening news of an almost transcendental quality.”
– (((Ben Wattenberg))), Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute


The idiot intellectuals

Nassim Nicholas Taleb explains why the world desperately needs to ignore the idiot intellectuals who presently rule it:

What we have been seeing worldwide, from India to the UK to the US, is the rebellion against the inner circle of no-skin-in-the-game policymaking “clerks” and journalists-insiders, that class of paternalistic semi-intellectual experts with some Ivy league, Oxford-Cambridge, or similar label-driven education who are telling the rest of us 1) what to do, 2) what to eat, 3) how to speak, 4) how to think… and 5) who to vote for.

But the problem is the one-eyed following the blind: these self-described members of the “intelligenzia” can’t find a coconut in Coconut Island, meaning they aren’t intelligent enough to define intelligence hence fall into circularities — but their main skill is capacity to pass exams written by people like them. With psychology papers replicating less than 40%, dietary advice reversing after 30 years of fatphobia, macroeconomic analysis working worse than astrology, the appointment of Bernanke, who was less than clueless of the risks, and pharmaceutical trials replicating at best only 1/3 of the time, people are perfectly entitled to rely on their own ancestral instinct and listen to their grandmothers (or Montaigne and such filtered classical knowledge) with a better track record than these policymaking goons.

Indeed one can see that these academico-bureaucrats who feel entitled to run our lives aren’t even rigorous, whether in medical statistics or policymaking. They cant tell science from scientism — in fact in their eyes scientism looks more scientific than real science. (For instance it is trivial to show the following: much of what the Cass-Sunstein-Richard Thaler types — those who want to “nudge” us into some behavior — much of what they call “rational” or “irrational” comes from their misunderstanding of probability theory and cosmetic use of first-order models.) They are also prone to mistake the ensemble for the linear aggregation of its components as we saw in the chapter extending the minority rule.

I could not agree more. One thing I have noticed, regularly and reliably, is that the professional class of the so-called cognitive elite are simply not that smart. I mean, they’re not exactly stupid, but most of them are 2SD midwits who are considerably less intelligent than Taleb, me, or most of the genuinely smart people that I know.

Remember the lesson of the Excluded: “The probability of entering and remaining in an intellectually elite profession such as Physician, Judge, Professor, Scientist, Corporate Executive, etc. increases with IQ to about 133. It then falls about 1/3 by 140. By 150 IQ the probability has fallen by 97%! In other words, a significant percentage of people with IQs over 140 are being systematically and, most likely inappropriately, excluded from the population that addresses the biggest problems of our time or who are responsible for assuring the efficient operation of social, scientific, political and economic institutions.”

Or as Taleb puts it: “Beware the semi-erudite who thinks he is an erudite. He fails to naturally detect sophistry. The IYI pathologizes others for doing things he doesn’t understand without ever realizing it is his understanding that may be limited.”