Inflation vs Deflation V

In his second response, Mount Chapter 3, Nate provided four categories of money:

  1. Commodity money
  2. Fiat money
  3. Money certificates
  4. Credit money

He also answered my questions, which I shall summarize as follows:

  1. When they function like money, gold and silver are commodity money, as evidenced by the historical preference for them.
  2. Federal Reserve Notes are fiat money, with some characteristics of credit money.
  3. TMS2 does not represent his definition of the money supply, but serves as a useful tool for estimating it.
  4. All of the categories in TMS2 are fiat money; some may be credit money as well.

It was a strong and informed response, much better than one would likely receive from a professional economist or a central banker.  Two of his answers were also incorrect, for reasons I shall presently demonstrate.

Nate’s first mistake is the identification of credit money as fiat money, even though he clearly has his suspicions concerning the problematic nature of the distinction as it applies to the US monetary system.  That this distinction is false can be demonstrated in two ways, first with a legitimate appeal to authority and history, and second by the money creation process.

With regards to the first point, Mises writes:

“It can hardly be contested that fiat money in the strict sense of the word is theoretically conceivable. The theory of value proves the possibility of its existence. Whether fiat money has ever actually existed is, of course, another question, and one that cannot off-hand be answered affirmatively. It can hardly be doubted that most of those kinds of money that are not commodity money must be classified as credit money. But only detailed historical investigation could clear this matter up.”
  – The Theory of Money and Credit, p. 61

So, we recognize that while fiat money can potentially exist in theory, the question of its actual existence, in the United States or anywhere else, is not settled.  Nate himself notes that Federal Reserve Notes have some characteristics of credit money and that some of the categories in TMS2 may be credit money, but he fails to take the critical step, which is to recognize that the reason they have those characteristics is that they are credit money.  Note in particular the statement that most kinds of money that are not commodity “must be classified as credit money”.

This leads us to our second point.  The “fiat money” of TMS2 includes Demand Deposits, Other Checkable Deposits at Commercial Banks, Other Checkable deposits at Thrifts, Savings deposits at Commercial Banks, Savings Deposits at Thrifts, Demand Deposits, Time and Savings Deposits, and US Government Demand Deposits, among other things.  But from whence do these deposits come?  We know they are not simply printed by either the U.S. government or the Federal Reserve; there is simply not enough currency to account for them.

Clarity is established here via the the endogenous vs exogenous money debate.  We’re not likely to get sidetracked here, because Nate ultimately comes down on the endogenous side, he simply hasn’t connected it to his conception of fiat money.  Mises, too, comes down firmly on the side of endogenous money, as evidenced by the following passage:

“It is not the State, but the common practice of all those who have dealings in the market, that creates money. It follows that State regulation attributing general power of debt-liquidation to a commodity is unable of itself to make that commodity into money. If the State creates credit money – and this is naturally true in a still greater degree of fiat money – it can do so only by taking things that are already in circulation as money substitutes (that is, as perfectly secure and immediately convertible claims to money) and isolating them for purposes of valuation by depriving them of their essential characteristic of permanent convertibility. Commerce would always protect itself against any other method of introducing a government credit currency. The attempt to put credit money into circulation has never been successful, except when the coins or notes in question have already been in circulation as money substitutes.”
  –   The Theory of Money and Credit, p.78

The significance of endogenous money to us here is that it shows that deposits of the sort that make up the TMS2 are created by loans.  They are, to the extent they can be considered money at all, quite literally credit money.  As the market in commercial paper demonstrates, these loans, these future claims, whether created by the central bank, the member banks, or other corporations, have become a commodity in their own right.

And yet, although we can establish that M1, M2, TMS2 all consist of credit money, none of these various money supply measures can be considered money by our original definition, even with its stamp of fiat approval, because the credit money concerned is not directly convertible into commodity money on demand and has not been since 1971.  Despite its use in exchanges, by our agreed-upon definition, this credit money merely represents claims to money rather than money proper, it is a money-substitute money surrogate, which Mises rather confusingly describes as “fiduciary media”.

(“We shall use the term Money Certificates for those money substitutes that are completely covered by the reservation of corresponding sums of money, and the term Fiduciary Media for those which are not covered in this way.” Mises, p. 133)

At this point, it is understandable if the mind shies away from the inescapable logical conclusion.  The question of inflation and deflation of the U.S. money supply is a category error, because there is no U.S. money supply.  This category error and failure to understand that what we have been taught to consider money is merely a money-surrogate is why all of the various quantity theories and complicated attempts to calculate the money supply and predict the consequence of changes in it go so reliably awry, because they are attempting to estimate something by looking at the derivative without realizing that it is a derivative.

To put it in more straightforward terms, while there is no U.S. money supply, there is a money-surrogate supply that consists of fiat-backed credit money.  This was inevitable with the introduction of money-surrogates, given Gresham’s Law, which is popularly summarized as “bad money drives out good money”, and which I would modify as “surrogate money drives out genuine money when it is assigned exchange value by the State”.  This has considerable implications that go well beyond the simple question of inflation versus deflation and merits serious contemplation, however, what concerns us is the three questions it raises that are directly pertinent to the current debate:

  1. What is the best measure of the money-surrogate supply?
  2. Is the money-surrogate supply growing or shrinking?
  3. To where has the genuine money been driven?

In conclusion, I will note that the great Austrian sage recognized and prophetically described the very process of transition from commodity money to credit money, from genuine money to money surrogate, that we have seen take place in American history, although he appears to have been more than a little naive concerning how the diminution of purchasing power might be considered desirable by those in a position to systematically benefit from it.  In the chapter entitled “Influence of the State”, he wrote:

“The exaggeration of the importance in monetary policy of the power at the disposal of the State in its legislative capacity can only be attributed to superficial observation of the processes involved in the transition from commodity money to credit money. This transition has normally been achieved by means of a State declaration that inconvertible claims to money were as good means of payment as money itself.  As a rule, it has not been the object of such a declaration to carry out a change of standard and substitute credit money for commodity money. In the great majority of cases, the State has taken such measures merely with certain fiscal ends in view. It has aimed to increase its own resources by the creation of credit money.  In the pursuit of such a plan as this, the diminution of the money’s purchasing power could hardly seem desirable. And yet it has always been this depreciation in value which, through the coming into play of Gresham’s Law, has caused the change of monetary standard.”
  –   The Theory of Money and Credit, p.77


A Hultgreen-Curie near miss

Frankly, I’m surprised the woman didn’t somehow manage to trip, fall, break her neck, and expire on the field during the tryout:

It was always a long shot that Lauren Silberman would wind up impressing an NFL team so much during a regional combine that they wound up signing her for a chance to compete to become their kicker this summer.  It’s a much longer shot after her day at the New York/New Jersey Regional Scouting Combine, held at Jets headquarters in New Jersey, ended early because of an injury. Mike Garafolo of USA Today reports that Silberman landed awkwardly after her first kickoff, which traveled just 16 yards, and then asked to see a trainer after a 14-yard kick on her second try.

To put those distances into perspective, Ender was kicking 20-yard field goals when he was eight years old. Video of this epic and historic kick, which marks a major step forward in the long march towards Fempire, is below.


Inflation vs Deflation IV

Nate has put together an excellent response entitled Mount Chapter 3, the full significance of which I suspect even he doesn’t recognize yet, but which I will begin to illuminate in my next post on the subject:

So… now here we sit happily atop Mount Chapter Three.  Ain’t the view grand?  Now… with all of this as a basis of monetary understanding… we can address Vox’s traps… I mean… questions.

1. Are gold and silver commodity money?  All gold and silver?  Money is a condition that can be deferentially diagnosed by behavior.  Are they functioning like money?  Then they are money.  Its the behavior that makes them money.  It is the commercial commodity that lends subjective value and thus allows us to categorize them in LVM’s terms.

2. Are the Federal Reserve Notes, in both cash and deposit form, commodity money or fiat money?  The standard answer is fiat.  But in reality FRN’s have characteristics of both credit money and fiat money.

3.Does TMS2 represent your definition of the money supply? No.  like M2  it is only a useful tool for estimation.  It is flawed… but it serves for watching trends.  I am agnostic on the claim that money supply can even be measured  accurately.  But I lean toward it being a pure impossibility.  Its like watching ants at a huge ant mound.  You have no idea how many ants are actually there…  guessing is pointless… but you can stand back and watch them and tell if the swarm is growing or shrinking.

4. What are the various components of TMS2, commodity money, fiat money, or some combination therein?  Given the nature of my explanation of Chapter 3’s 4 types of money… its abundantly clear that all categories in TMS2 are fiat money.  Many are credit money as well… but its impossible to parce in our banking system due to the various shenanigans… AND… if you listen to Ludwig… well…

“As a rule it is not possible to ascertain whether a concrete specimen of money-substitutes is a money-certificate or a fiduciary medium” 
– Human Action( p. 433)

With apologies to Vox, he has taken a large list of money substitutes and asked me to  do what Mises says literally cannot be done.

Read the rest of it there.  As for those who are concerned about the score, I think I can assure you, that is almost certainly the least interesting aspect of this debate.  Not, of course, that I am conceding anything in the slightest.  I am just as capable of seeing the obvious as anyone else, the difference is that I also see that which is, apparently, considerably less obvious.


Avanti Grillo

The Italian euro-elite is plotting against the Italian people and their right to self-determination again:

Italian officials say the Bank of Italy’s governor Ignazio Visco is front-runner to take over as premier despite warnings that this will be seen as an elitist ploy. It is far from clear whether the Democrats (Pd) in charge of the lower house will back the idea.  The plans amount to a near replica of the outgoing team of Mario Monti, though one greatly weakened by the earthquake upset in the elections a week ago. Almost 57pc of the vote went to groups that vowed to tear up the EU-imposed austerity agenda.

Stefano Fassina, the Pd economics chief, said his party is vehemently opposed to “any form of technocrat government, new or old”, insisting that the election result must be respected. Mr Fassina said 90pc of the country had rejected the Monti agenda and warned that it would be a grave error to try to force through the same reviled plans a second time.

Comedian Beppe Grillo repeated his vow to “bring down the old system” and dismissed the latest talks as cattle market trading by a depraved political class trying to circumvent the will of the people. “I repeat for the umpteenth time, the Five Star Movement will not back any government. It will vote law by law in keeping with its platform,” he said.

“We’re not a political party, we’re a civic revolution. This country is in ruins with two trillion in debts and we have to rebuild it from scratch,” he told a scrum of journalists. In a rhetorical play on the slogans of 1789 and 1917 he exhorted “all citizens” to descend on parliament.  Mr Grillo repeated his call for an “online referendum” on the euro and vowed to buy back €600bn of Italian bonds held by foreigners if his movement gains power, a de facto default and withdrawal from the EMU system. 

The “comedian” is terrifying the bankers and the politicians because he’s made it clear that he will not be co-opted by alliances and payoffs.  Naturally, this refusal to join them means those who are observably anti-democratic fascists are attempting to smear him as a fascist.  They are frightened, quite reasonably, that Grillo will lead Italy out of the Euro and possibly the European Union as well.  As, one hopes, he will.

To put it into American terms, this is as if Ron Paul had run third party for president, no one won, and it was declared that Ben Bernanke would be appointing himself president.  Needless to say, the 90 percent of Italians who voted against Monti, the Italian equivalent of Alan Greenspan, who for the last year has been acting as prime minister despite never being elected to anything, are not at all pleased about this.

Meanwhile, in the land of the free, Americans sit complacently on their $53 trillion in debt and continue to support the very Republicans and Democrats whose policies created it.


More shirts from McRapey

Sadly, while McRapey’s latest t-shirt endeavor has received considerably more press than his Gamma Rabbit line, Amazon has decided to stop selling them due to their overly rapey theme.  We can only hope that his next project, Gamma Rabbit thongs for cisgendered men, will prove to be more successful.


Mailvox: impeccable girl logic



How can one possibly hope to refute these fiendish adversaries?  Or to confound their impeccable and diabolically clever arguments?  And seeing as how Miss Paradis is not only breaking out logic, but Latin, I can only conclude she must be a witch!  In fear and desperation, I attempted to dismantle her argument, but there were simply no flaws to be found!

  1. I did, indeed, write that widespread rape makes a society uncivilized whereas widespread female employment makes a society demographically unsustainable.
  2. And in doing so, I did, without question, show a certain lack of empathy.
  3. And furthermore, this dreadful dearth of empathy did inspire the Paradis sisters to collect THREE HUNDRED AND EIGHTY FIVE DOLLARS from similarly disgusted individuals and give it to an incest charity… in my name!

Thereby proving, beyond any shadow of a reasonable doubt, that my thesis concerning the demographic unsustainability of widespread female employment and the relative damage it causes to society vis-a-vis widespread rape can only be completely and totally incorrect.

I stand corrected.  Quod sherat demonstrandum.

UPDATE:  Miss Paradis expounds upon her dialectical approach: “I’m not attempting to refute an illogical argument. The argument is
based on false premise and was meant only to be inflammatory, either
that or your ‘super intellect’ has no understanding of capitalism.”


Inflation vs Deflation III

Nearly twenty years ago, I reached the finals of a karate tournament.  It was the third and final point-fighting tournament of my brief career and the first one in which I wasn’t ejected in the first match for “excessive contact”.  (I never liked point-fighting, which is essentially a version of tag.)  My opponent in the final was a good friend from my dojo, a sort of pocket Hercules who could do six reps at 275 and whose nickname was Terminator.

Our sensei encouraged the referee to let things go for once, we both fully unleashed on the other, but after the scheduled two minutes was up and the score was only 2-2, the referee turned to our sensei before the overtime and said “do these guys fight each other every day or something?”  No matter how fast and hard we threw our kicks and punches, it was very hard to penetrate the other’s defenses because we both knew perfectly well what the other guy was intending.

In like manner, because Nate and I are both familiar, and more or less in accordance, with Austrian School economics, a lot of this debate is likely to strike readers less familiar with it as pointless.  But rest assured, it is not.  It is precisely because the windows of opportunity are going to be small that an amount of testing and probing for weakness is going to be required.  Also, as a long-time reader of this blog, Nate is very familiar with my approach to critical discourse and is going to be exceedingly wary of the various traps I habitually lay for my interlocutors.  So, be patient and try to resist the urge to try to leap ahead, because this is not going to proceed immediately to the superficially obvious chasm, which is the different opinions concerning debt, that separates us.

In his first response, Nate indicated his acceptance of the monetary tradition of Turgot with two critical addenda.  He writes:

Note that nowhere in either of Vox’s proposed definitions do we find this critical factor.  Turgot omits it.  Law omits it.  Mises, Rothbard, Salerno.. and pretty much every other Austrian has agreed that the key factor of money is the fact that it completes a transaction.  Completing a transaction is the one thing that money does, that nothing else does.  In the interest of charity and goodwill… I will suggest that Turgot’s characteristics of money are all fine with me… provided that we remember that the value supposedly stored by the money is subjective, and, we add the requirement that I have hitherto beaten into the ground.  It must serve to complete the transaction.

I have no objection to either addendum and am content to accept it as a reasonable definition of money for the moment, although I reserve the right to propose alternative definitions should this definition prove to be insufficient in the course of the debate.  So, this leaves us with the following characteristics of money:

  1. A medium of exchange
  2. A unit of expression
  3. An object of commerce i.e. an exchangeable good
  4. A tool of economic calculation
  5. An intrinsic store of subjective value
  6. A completer of transactions

Before I proceed further, I must first explicitly answer the question Nate posed to me:

Lots of things store value.  Lots of things can be used to estimate value. Lots of things can be employed to aid in an exchange.   Money does all of those things.  But money is the only thing that does all of those things, and completes an exchange without creating a need for another transaction.  True or false?

Again, for the sake of argument and in the interest of charity and goodwill, I can only answer one way: true.  Armed as we now are with this expanded definition of money, we can proceed to begin considering the question of the money supply.  In doing so, I would recall to Nate the following two statements by Mises, with which we already know, from his previous post, he is almost surely familiar.

“We may give the name of commodity money to that sort of money that is at the same time a commercial commodity; and that of fiat money to money that comprises things with a special legal qualification. A third category may be called credit money, this being that sort of money which constitutes a claim against any physical or legal person. But these claims must not be both payable on demand and absolutely secure; if they were, there could be no difference between their value and that of the sum of money to which they referred, and they could not be subjected to an independent process of valuation on the part of those who dealt with them.”
  –  Mises, The Theory of Money and Credit, p. 61

“The nominalists assert that the monetary unit, in modem countries at any rate, is not a concrete commodity unit that can be defined in suitable technical terms, but a nominal quantity of value about which nothing can be said except that it is created by law. Without touching upon the vague and nebulous nature of this phraseology, which will not sustain a moment’s criticism from the point of view of the theory of value, let us simply ask: What, then, were the mark, the franc, and the pound, before 1914? Obviously, they were nothing but certain weights of gold.”
  –  Mises, The Theory of Money and Credit, p. 66

The same, of course, is true of the thaler, or dollar, of which the U.S. version is 24.057 grams of silver.  This, naturally, leads me to conclude with the following questions, to which I should like to see Nate’s answers:

  1. Are gold and silver commodity money?
  2. Are the Federal Reserve Notes, in both cash and deposit form, commodity money or fiat money?
  3. Does TMS2 represent your definition of the money supply?
  4. What are the various components of TMS2, commodity money, fiat money, or some combination therein?

Spain attacks democracy

Italy and Greece have already flirted with post-democracy, now it is Spain’s turn to do the same.  It’s informative to see how the various governments facing secession movements appear to take them considerably more seriously than those who can’t see past the status quo, so seriously that they’re even willing to throw democracy and self-determination overboard if need be:

The Spanish government has launched a legal challenge against Catalonia’s recent “declaration of sovereignty”, in the latest move by Madrid to halt the region’s march towards independence.

The government said it would ask Spain’s constitutional court to nullify the Catalan parliament’s January declaration, which stated that the “people of Catalonia have, for reasons of democratic legitimacy, the nature of a sovereign political and legal subject”.

The resolution is intended to pave the way for a regional referendum on independence, and reflects the recent surge in separatist sentiment in Spain’s most important economic region.

It’s a little amusing to see journalists raise the indebted state of the regions seeking secession and sovereignty as if it is an anti-secessionary pressure.  The reality is that debt is an excellent reason to secede, as a sovereign can borrow more easily and default at will.


70,000 readers per day!

One thing you have to keep in mind when dealing with the Left is that
leftists very seldom tell the truth about anything.  They depend upon misleading others.  That is why, if you notice a leftist is putting
particular stress on something, that is a glowing-red, beeping signal
that if you look a little closer, you’ll discover that whatever they are claiming is, if not entirely false, at least somewhat exaggerated.

Item 1: Rachel Maddow.  “A
poster on Twitter, upon seeing what he thought were very similar posts
referencing MSNBC host Rachel Maddow’s show, did some searching and
found out that Maddow has been using phony twitter accounts to boost her
“mentions” on the popular website.  As can be seen by screenshots
collected by a tweeter named @LeftyBollocks, Maddow has massive amount
of accounts posting the exact same claim that “Confession: I yell at my
TV while watching Rachel #Maddow talk about filibuster reform in the
same way most people do during football.”

Item 2: John Scalzi.   “Handily
demolishing the burger that he had chosen over a Midtown restaurant’s
fancier Mediterranean fare, Mr. Scalzi was anything but grim; he smiled
readily and giggled heartily. He is comfortable with the business of
promotion: An affable speaker, he is familiar with the patois of fandom
and is adept at generating buzz through the nerd mafia of like-minded
collaborators. He already reaches up to 50,000 readers a day through his
popular blog, “Whatever.” (“Taunting the tauntable since 1998” is the
slogan on its home page.)”

Item 3: 2012 Nebula Awards.  The SFWA Nebula ballots went out today.  As usual, Tor had 2 of the 6 nominations for Best Novel, but as Tor’s defenders are quick to point out, that could be accounted for by the fact that it publishes the most novels in the increasingly mislabeled field of “science fiction”.  However, even more questionable is the fact that three of the seven Best Novelette nominees were published on Tor.com, which is one fewer nomination than Asimov, Analog, F&SF, and Black Gate received for all short fiction combined.  Another apparent anomaly was that two writers, Aliette de Bodard and Kenneth Liu, received five nominations between them for the three shorter fiction awards, up from three last year.  Now, it would appear that either the two writers are the second comings of Asimov and Heinlein who will dominate the field of science fiction for decades to come or there is something else at work here.

The numerate among us
will recognize that 50,000 readers per day is 18.25 million readers per
year.  Now recall that McRapey was more than a little pleased to have hit 8.2 million in 2012,
up from 5.4 million in 2011.  That 8.2 million refers to
Wordpress views that amount to 7.8 million in Google pageview terms.  Now to
demonstrate how absurd that shows the “50,000 readers a day” claim to be, note that two months into 2013 I am presently right on pace to hit 25,309,493 readers
in 2013 by the NYT metric.  That’s 69,341 daily, which rounds nicely up
to 70,000 readers per day!

How seriously would
you take me if I claimed I had up to 70,000 readers per day?  That’s
precisely how seriously you should take any the posturing of any left-winger
about his popularity, his influence, or even his “bestselling” status, said the three-time Billboard top 40 recording artist.

These examples demonstrate why you should never,
ever give anyone on the Left even the smallest benefit of the doubt.  They always, at
the very least, stretch the truth.  They sockpuppet.  They pretend to
read things they have not.  They claim to have bought things they have
never seen.  They claim to have published three books when they have
only published one.  This reliable pattern of left-wing dishonesty is why I don’t
hesitate to call out fake reviewers and point out apparent shenanigans
even before I have gathered the incontrovertible and conclusive proof; experience and pattern
recognition have taught me that where there is the smoke of anomalies
and numbers not adding up, there is usually the fire of someone who is
“comfortable with the business of promotion” and “adept at generating
buzz”.

It is always unwise to place any trust whatsoever in those who live by attempting to redefine reality through their lies.


Inflation vs Deflation II

Nate responds with his first post: The Trap Unsprung, Mostly:

It becomes readily apparently that Vox has decided to very politely insult me.  Curious.. Cruelty artists are not often known for their subtlety.  Regardless… insult it is. That is what you call it when a skilled opponent opens up a chess match by going for a 3 move check mate.  The insinuation is you may fall for it.  Well thanks mate… Why didn’t ya just accuse me of licking the window of the short bus all the way to the Midvail Academy of the Mentally Challenged?

You may be wondering what all of this maneuvering is about.  If you’ve read Return of the Great Depression (and you should dammit) you know that Vox’s depressionist case is based on debt disappearing.   All is not totally lost for him if debt doesn’t count as money… but it complicates matters for him considerably.  If he can just show that debt is money and debt is disappearing… then he is in very good shape indeed.  If he can’t show debt is money… he can still make an effective case… it is just harder.

Ever the war gamer… Vox is trying to take the high ground.  He knows it doesn’t win him the battle… but this amounts to Getting There First with the Most.

Read the rest of it there.  He’s not wrong about my intentions although I was actually going for a 2-move checkmate that he didn’t spot.  I will post my response tomorrow; while this doesn’t require weekly posts; one per day is sufficient.  And to those who are wondering when we’re going to get past the money definitions to the central question, I will simply say “relax, enjoy the journey, and try to grasp the significance of what is being discussed on the way”.  We will definitely get to the more mundane aspects of the topic, but most of you should know enough to expect the unexpected by now.