40 years of declining wages

I’ve been pointing out this wage stagnation for years; many people even used to argue with me about whether it was real or not. Perhaps in another decade, the US Census Bureau will also admit that these declining wages are the result of a) 2x more women in the post-1950 workforce, and, b) post-1965 immigration:

The real median income of American men who work full-time, year-round peaked forty years ago in 1973, according to data published by the U.S. Census Bureau. In 1973, median earnings for men who worked full-time, year-round were $51,670 in inflation-adjusted 2012 dollars. The median earnings of men who work full-time year-round have never been that high again.

In 2012, the latest year for which the Census Bureau has published an estimate, the real median earnings of men who worked full-time, year-round was $49,398. That was $2,272—or about 4.4 percent—below the peak median earnings of $51,670 in 1973.

Why 1973? Two reasons. The consequences of the 1965 change to immigration law was beginning to take effect and it marked the year that the number of old men leaving the work force stopped balancing the number of young women entering the work force. Essentially, the system was structurally rebalanced to substitute inexpensive young women of child-bearing age in the work force for expensive old men of retirement age.

Which means that young women have been forgoing families so that they can be taxed to pay for old men sitting around collecting social security checks. It was a system structurally and mathematically doomed to eventual failure. When the financial and social security systems collapse, it will be important to remember that it was the encouragement and embrace of careers over marriage that was the necessary factor. Middle-class educated young women were not liberated, they were enticed to enchain themselves to feed the corporate mills in lieu of marriage.

Keep in mind, too, that this only accounts for men who work full-time. If the nonexistent wages of the additional men no longer in the labor force were included in the calculation, the comparison would look even worse. Perhaps one of these days I will bother to work out the numbers, but off-hand, I’d estimate that the 4.4 percent decline from peak median earnings would increase to about 15 percent on the basis of the 10-point decline in the 40-year male employment-to-population ratio.

Women can get as upset as they like about how they should have the right to choose what they want to do and so forth. That doesn’t change the facts. It doesn’t change the math. And it won’t undo the incredible societal damage that has been done by four decades of lowering working men’s wages and producing too few children.


Sedition in the USA

Washington, we may have a problem:

“The causes and motives of seditions are, innovation in religion; taxes; alteration of laws and customs; breaking of privileges; general oppression; advancement of unworthy persons; strangers; dearths; disbanded soldiers; factions grown desperate; and what soever, in offending people, joineth and knitteth them in a common cause….

“Above all things, good policy is to be used, that the treasure and moneys, in a state, be not gathered into few hands. For otherwise a state may have a great stock, and yet starve. And money is like muck, not good except it be spread. This is done, chiefly by suppressing, or at least keeping a strait hand, upon the devouring trades of usury, ingrossing great pasturages, and the like.”
– Francis Bacon,  “Of Seditions And Troubles”

  • Innovation in religion, check.
  • Taxes, check.
  • Alteration of laws and customs, check.
  • Breaking of privileges, check.
  • General oppression, check.
  • Advancement of unworthy persons, check.
  • Strangers, check.
  • Dearths, check.
  • Disbanded soldiers, check.
  • Factions grown desperate, not yet.

And as for suppressing the devouring trade of usury, well, the economy may be in the doldrums and the employment/population ratio is down, but at least the stock market and the big banks are doing well.


VP’s First Rule

1. You will be addressed in the style you choose. If you come in here
slinging insults and acting disrespectfully, you will be treated with a
contemptuous and derisive disdain that will, based on past experience,
probably upset you. This is particularly true for visitors who are
under the impression, mistaken or not, that they are far more
intelligent than the average individual here. If instead, you elect to
offer substantive and civil criticism, then you will meet with a
similarly civil response.

I understand that some would-be rhetoricians mistakenly think that it is effective rhetoric to inappropriately apply labels that I have created specifically to describe certain things to me, to this blog, and to my readers. This is a false claim, moreover, a claim that can only be made in the full knowledge that it is not true.


So, be advised that if you describe this blog as a warren or its readers as rabbits, I will respond to you as if what you claim to believe is actually true. Which is to say that you will be expelled from the so-called warren in precisely the same manner you would be if it were a real intellectual warren.


If you wish to criticize, then criticize. You are free to do so. I have no objection to straightforward and honest criticism. But do not lie. Do not bear false witness. Do not engage in dishonest childish rhetorical tactics. And keep the First Rule in mind.


An interview with Nicholas Wade

Social Matter interviews the author of A Troublesome Inheritance: 

In writing A Troublesome Inheritance, what response did you expect to receive? What has been your impression of reviews so far?

I feared the book would be condemned out of hand and have been delighted that the preponderance of reviews so far have been favorable.  The two main themes of the book – that race is biological, evolution continuous – are not so hard to accept, and I hope that I’m pushing on an open door. 

In your book you write “The rise of the West is an event not just in history but also in human evolution.” How much do we miss in our understanding of the rise and fall of civilizations by not incorporating the role evolution plays in human populations?

A thesis of the book is that social institutions rest on human social behavior, which is shaped by evolution.  Institutions have a large cultural component, so it’s hard to know at present how important evolution has been.  But I think we should look out for it in all major social transitions, such as the foraging-settler transition, the escape from tribalism, and the Industrial Revolution, and if one accepts that the natural selection has been active here then all major societies probably have been shaped by evolution to some extent.

I think Wade’s reference to “evolution” is considerably broader than that customarily utilized by biologists when referring to evolution by natural selection, (for example, Wade occasionally uses “natural selection” to encompass selection that does not appear to be based solely on environmental pressures), but among other things, his book points to one obvious point of logical tension in the progressive dogma. If TENS is true, then a lot of progressive dogma is not merely false, but completely impossible. And if TENS is not true, then a lesser, but still considerable amount of progressive dogma has, contra to progressive assumptions, no greater basis in science than many competing non-progressive dogmas.

Which is precisely why most progressives attempt to avoid thinking about such matters. The relative silence with which Wade’s book has met from its anticipated critics is a strong indication that they at least suspect they are not merely outgunned, but scientifically outdated.


Pale Moon will stay DRM-free

Since many of you who have made the switch from Firefox to Pale Moon wanted to know if Mozilla’s embrace of DRM meant that Pale Moon would follow suit, I shot the responsible party an email and received the following note:

“I’ve researched the topic and I believe it goes straight against what FOSS
stands for, so I will keep Pale Moon DRM-free.”

It would be hard to describe the issue more succinctly than that. If you’re still using Firefox and you don’t support DRM, give Pale Moon a try.


The end of the Nebula

It’s more than a little ironic that so many people are expressing fear for the fate of the Hugo Awards due to the nominations of works by Larry Correia and me when it is readily apparent that it is the status of the other science fiction award that is in considerably more danger. While the pinkshirts are celebrating the wonderful news that four women won the four SFWA awards for the best “science fiction” this year, more astute observers will recall the principle that men have a long-standing tendency to abandon what are viewed as women’s professions and any field dominated by women tends to lose status in the eyes of both sexes.

(This is why the fact that men are statistically overrepresented as firefighters and computer programmers is supposed to be a major societal problem, but no one is concerned by the fact that women are statistically overrepresented as nurses and primary schoolteachers.)

Whether this is the consequence of raw male sexism or the female tendency to reward others on the basis of their status in the herd rather than individual excellence is irrelevant. What the awards sweep indicates is that the reputation of the Nebula award, which has been dubious since The Quantum Rose won best novel, is now in freefall.

It will be interesting to see if there are any male winners in the next few years; I would not be surprised if, within five years, there are not even any male nominees. The organization is not only in the process of being abandoned to women, but to the sort of women who are much more interested in the sex and politics of the author than in the actual fiction.

And, of course, it wouldn’t be SFWA if they couldn’t host an awards dinner without shooting themselves in the foot. Robin Wayne Bailey posts on Facebook:

“The amazing fuckitude of the 2013 Nebulas blind-sided and shocked me as my presentation speech, including Frank Robinson’s acceptance remarks, were totally fucking skipped. I’ve promised to be silent for a few days while the ombudsman figures how how it happened, but I won’t be totally silent, and I won’t let SFWA off the hook for this affront to Frank Robinson and also to myself. I’m furious. Never in the history of SFWA has something like this happened.”

That is certainly a novel way of honoring a “special guest”. The observable reality is that SFWA isn’t a science fiction organization anymore, it is now a women’s political action committee. Male members, even those who are past leaders of the organization, shouldn’t be surprised to find themselves silenced and shunned in the future.

Fortunately, those running the show are SF/F nonentities, many of whom have never even published a single novel, so it’s not like such treatment is going to harm anyone’s career.


Shifting priorities

Perhaps the Gulf States can hire the IDF to provide for their security as the US military shifts its attention to China:

Saudi Arabia and a clutch of Arab Gulf states responsible for a quarter of the world’s oil supplies have been told to provide their own security as the US and the UK slash defence spending.

For the last 30 years the six members of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) have drawn heavily on US and British military support to safeguard their security but these unwritten guarantees are now unravelling amid cuts to defence spending and a reduced dependence on Middle East oil.

“Bilateral ties with the United States and American military presence are not enough to guarantee regional security,” US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel told a GCC ministerial conference in Riyadh yesterday. “America’s engagement with Gulf nations is intended to support and facilitate, not replace, stronger multilateral ties within the GCC.”

If the USA can’t protect the oil fields of the Middle East, it seems unlikely that it is going to go to the mat with Russia over Ukraine. Unless, of course, that is what Obama the master strategist wants Mr. Putin to think….


Anti-race is anti-science

It should be interesting to see the likes of Jared Diamond attempt to explain away the undeniable genetic differences between the various human subspecies; his reference to the Flat Earth Society is as clear a case of emotional projection as one could hope to find. In a chapter entitled “The Human Experiment”, Nicholas Wade observes that criticism-averse biologists are playing a shell game that provides sociologists who don’t understand the relevant science with sufficient cover to deny the scientifically undeniable:

Many scholars like to make safe nods to multicultural orthodoxy by implying that human races do not exist. Race? Debunking a Scientific Myth is the title of a recent book by a physical anthropologist and a geneticist, though their text is not nearly so specific. “The concept of race has no genetic or scientific basis,” writes Craig Venter, who was the leading decoder of the human genome but has no known expertise in the relevant discipline of population genetics.

Only people capable of thinking the Earth is flat believe in the existence of human races, according to the geographer Jared Diamond. “The reality of human races is another commonsense ‘truth’ destined to follow the flat Earth into oblivion,” he asserts. For a subtler position, consider the following statement, which seems to say the same thing. “It is increasingly clear that there is no scientific basis for defining precise ethnic or racial boundaries,” writes Francis Collins, director of the National Human Genome Research Institute in a review of the project’s implications. This form of words, commonly used by biologists to imply that they accept the orthodox political take on the nonexistence of race, means rather less than meets the eye. When a distinct boundary develops between races, they are no longer races but separate species. So to say there are no precise boundaries between races is like saying there are no square circles.

A few biologists have begun to agree that there are human races, but they hasten to add that the fact means very little. Races exist, but the implications are “not much,” says the evolutionary biologist Jerry Coyne. Too bad—nature has performed this grand 50,000 year experiment, generating scores of fascinating variations on the human theme, only to have evolutionary biologists express disappointment at her efforts.

From biologists’ obfuscations on the subject of race, sociologists have incorrectly inferred that there is no biological basis for race, confirming their preference for regarding race as just a social construct. How did the academic world contrive to reach a position on race so far removed from reality and commonsense observation?

The politically driven distortion of scientific views about race can be traced to a sustained campaign from the 1950s onward by the anthropologist Ashley Montagu, who sought to make the word race taboo, at least when referring to people. Montagu, who was Jewish, grew up in the East End district of London, where he experienced considerable anti-Semitism. He was trained as a social anthropologist in London and New York, where he studied under Franz Boas, a champion of racial equality and the belief that culture alone shapes human behavior. He began to promote Boas’s ideas with more zeal than their author. Montagu developed passionate views on the evils of race. “Race is the witchcraft, the demonology of our time, the means by which we exorcise the imagined demoniacal powers among us,” he wrote. “It is the contemporary myth, humankind’s most dangerous myth, America’s Original Sin.”

In the postwar years, with the horror of the Holocaust weighing on people’s minds, Montagu found ready acceptance of his views. These were prominent in the influential UNESCO statement on race, first issued in 1950, which he helped draft. He believed that imperialism, racism and anti-Semitism were driven by notions of race and could be undermined by showing that races did not exist. However much one may sympathize with Montagu’s motives, it is perhaps simplistic to believe that an evil can be eliminated by banning the words that conceptualize it. But suppression of the word was Montagu’s goal, and to a remarkable extent he succeeded.

“The very word race is itself racist,” he wrote in his book Man’s Most Dangerous Myth: The Fallacy of Race. Many scholars who understood human races very well began to drop the use of the term rather than risk being ostracized as racists. In a survey taken in 1987, only 50% of physical anthropologists (researchers who deal with human bones) agreed that human races exist, and among social anthropologists (who deal with people) just 29% did so.

How unfortunate for the self-styled anti-racists that scientody is bound, in the end, punch right through the most firmly lodged dogmas of scientistry. It’s a bit ironic that a member of the most tribal people in human history, (and one of the most scientifically accomplished, for that matter), the Jews, should be responsible for this profoundly anti-scientific triumph of propaganda; imagine if Montagu had instead waged a similarly successful campaign against the fundamental evils of a belief in gravity.

Instead of marveling at the amazing coincidence of people being beaten to death in the wrong part of town, we would be wondering how it was possible that so many people were being mysteriously found dead on the floor of the Grand Canyon.

But the scientific fact is that race exists, it is a concept based on observable genetic differences that are the result of human microevolution, and those differences have a significant impact on human behavior. The Collins position, which is that while race exists, it does not matter, is weaselly, incorrect, and scientifically outdated.

Lewontin’s thesis immediately became the central genetic plank of
those who believe that denying the existence of race is an effective way
to combat racism. It is prominently cited in Man’s Most Dangerous Myth: The Fallacy of Race,
an influential book written by the anthropologist Ashley Montagu with
the aim of eliminating race from the political and scientific
vocabulary. Lewontin’s statement is quoted at the beginning of the
American Anthropological Association’s statement on race and is a
founding principle of the assertion by sociologists that race is a
social construct, not a biological one.

But despite all the
weight that continues to be placed on it, Lewontin’s statement is
incorrect. It’s not the basic finding that is wrong. Many other studies
have confirmed that roughly 85% of human variation is among individuals
and 15% between populations. This is just what would be expected, given
that each race has inherited its genetic patrimony from the same
ancestral population that existed in the comparatively recent past.

What
is in error is Lewontin’s assertion that the amount of variation
between populations is so small as to be negligible. In fact it’s quite
significant. Sewall Wright, an eminent population geneticist, said that a
fixation index of 5% to 15% indicates “moderate genetic
differentiation” and that even with an index of 5% or less,
“differentiation is by no means negligible.” If differences of 10 to 15%
were seen in any other than the human species they would be called
subspecies, in Wright’s view.

It is more than a little ironic that it is those who so loudly proclaim that they “fucking love science” are among the most terrified of the genetic science that touches most closely upon who and what they are. Perhaps it is because I am tri-racial that I don’t give a damn about the racial pieties; what do various pretensions to White supremacy or Asian supremacy or the intrinsic superiority of La Raza  mean to one who is all-of-the-above?

In matters of race, as in all things, the facts are what they are, not what anyone might wish them to be. And the sooner that we face those facts and begin to deal in terms of objective and scientific reality rather than wishful thinking, the sooner that our social and personal policies are likely to meet with success rather than inevitable and cataclysmic failure.


Why Brendan Eich had to go

It looks rather like the failure of the Mozilla executives to defend CEO Eich from the Gay Mafia campaign being waged against him may have been at least in part due to the desire to remove a major obstacle to DRM being added to Firefox. Consider these three blog posts from three Mozilla figures, including Eich:

“With most competing browsers and the content industry embracing the W3C EME specification, Mozilla has little choice but to implement EME as well so our users can continue to access all content they want to enjoy. Read on for some background on how we got here, and details of our implementation.”
– Mozilla CTO Andreas Gal, 14 May 2014 

“Mozilla will be adding a way to integrate Adobe Access DRM technology
for video and audio into Firefox, via a common specification called
Encrypted Media Extensions (EME).”

– The Mozilla Blog, 14 May 2014

“the W3C willfully underspecifying DRM in HTML5 is quite a different matter from browsers having to support several legacy plugins. Here is a narrow bridge on which to stand and fight — and perhaps fall, but (like Gandalf) live again and prevail in the longer run. If we lose this battle, there will be others where the world needs Mozilla.

“By now it should be clear why we view DRM as bad for users, open source, and alternative browser vendors:

    Users: DRM is technically a contradiction, which leads directly to legal restraints against fair use and other user interests (e.g., accessibility).
    Open source: Projects such as mozilla.org cannot implement a robust and Hollywood-compliant CDM black box inside the EME API container using open source software.
    Alternative browser vendors: CDMs are analogous to ActiveX components from the bad old days: different for each OS and possibly even available only to the OS’s default browser.

“I continue to collaborate with others, including some in Hollywood, on watermarking, not DRM.”
– Brendan Eich, 22 October 2013

Eich stood firmly in the way of Mozilla incorporating DRM into Firefox. Now that he’s gone, and his technological authority with him, Mozilla immediately caved to Hollywood interests. It’s also interesting to note that the justification for Mozilla making this change is given as fear that users will abandon them. That demonstrates that the campaign to #uninstallfirefox was based on a sound principle, even if it was not quite as successful as I would have liked it to be.

As of yesterday, Firefox still represents 21 percent of the traffic here at VP, although it is down from 34 percent historically. But at least 8 percent of the overall traffic, (and nearly a quarter of the former Mozilla traffic), now uses Pale Moon. If you haven’t switched yet, I encourage you to try it out. Perhaps Mozilla’s embrace of DRM will convince you to do so.


Intra-Democrat war

This promises to be an interesting political battle, featuring Vibrant Americans vs Jewish women.

“If it’s not handled by… the start of next season, I don’t see how we’re playing basketball,” NBPA vice president Roger Mason Jr. said in an interview with Showtime’s Jim Rome. “We have player reps, we’ve got executive committee members…  Leaders of the teams, they’re all saying the same thing, ‘If [Sterling] is still in place, we ain’t playing’. … I was just in the locker room three or four days ago. LeBron and I talked about it. He ain’t playing if Sterling is still an owner.”

Mason clarified that the ultimatum applies equally to Shelly Sterling, too. “No Sterling deserves to be an owner of that franchise any longer,” Mason continued. “And I’ve gone down the line from LeBron to the other guys in the league that I’ve talked to and they all feel the same way. There’s no place for that family in the NBA.”

James, who scored 49 points in a Game 4 victory over the Nets in the Eastern conference semifinals on Monday, took a public stand against both Sterlings earlier this week.

“As players, we want what’s right and we don’t feel like no one in his family should be able to own the team,” he said, according to the Associated Press.

It’s bad enough to argue that a man should be deprived of his property due to his private speech, but on the other hand, there are details related to Mr. Tokowitz’s signature on various NBA documents that appear to considerably complicate the matter. But the former Miss Stein didn’t do or say anything objectionable, so one wonders on what ground Mr. Mason and Mr. James could possibly argue that she should be deprived of her property.

I could not care less about the NBA, but this could provide some amusement. It should be interesting to see how fast the NBA reverses direction once Mrs. Tokowitz starts playing the sexist card and the media takes note of the fact that the league has no female owners.