The Free Pass Has Expired

This is the second public warning, in less than a week, that Russia is no longer willing to permit the USA and its European satrapies to continue waging a proxy war directly against it without experiencing the repercussions of their actions:

A proxy war between the nuclear powers is already underway; moreover, in the course of this conflict, more and more restrictions are being removed, both in terms of the weapon systems used and the participation of Western troops, as well as the geographical limits of the theater of war. It is possible to pretend that a certain ‘strategic stability’ is being maintained, but only if, like the US, a player sets the task of inflicting a strategic defeat on the enemy at the hands of its client state and expects that the enemy will not dare to use nuclear weapons.

Thus, the concept of strategic stability in its original form – the creation and maintenance of military-technical conditions to prevent a sudden massive nuclear strike – only partially retains its meaning under current conditions.

Strengthening nuclear deterrence could be the solution to the real problem of restoring strategic stability, which has been seriously disrupted by the ongoing and escalating conflict. To begin with, it is worth rethinking the concept of deterrence and, in the process, changing its name. For example, instead of a passive, we should talk about an active form. The adversary should not remain in a state of comfort, believing that the war he is waging with the help of another country will not affect him in any way. In other words, it is necessary to put fear back into the minds and hearts of the enemy’s leaders. The beneficial sort of fear, it’s worth stressing.

It must also be recognized that the limits of purely verbal intervention have been exhausted at this stage of the Ukrainian conflict. Channels of communication all the way to the top must remain open around the clock, but the most important messages at this stage must be sent through concrete steps: doctrinal changes; military exercises to test them; underwater and aerial patrols along the coasts of the likely enemy; warnings about preparations for nuclear tests and the tests themselves; the imposition of no-fly zones over part of the Black Sea, and so on. The point of these actions is not only to demonstrate determination and readiness to use available capabilities to protect Russia’s vital interests, but –most importantly– to bring the enemy to a halt and encourage it to engage in serious dialogue.

The escalation ladder does not end here. Military-technical steps can be followed by real acts, warnings of which have already been given: for example, attacks on air bases and supply centers on the territory of NATO countries, and so on. There is no need to go further. We simply need to understand, and help the enemy to understand, that strategic stability in the real, not narrow, technical sense of the word is not compatible with armed conflict between nuclear powers, even if (for the time being) it is being waged indirectly.

It is unlikely that the enemy will accept this state of affairs easily and immediately. At the very least, they will need to realize that this is our position and draw the appropriate conclusions.

Translation: Russia doesn’t need to nuke anyone yet, or even rattle its nuclear saber, but since neither the USA nor the European states have been willing to pay any heed to a) the comprehensive defeat of the Ukrainian forces in Ukraine, b) the series of tactical defeats of the NATO forces in Ukraine, c) diplomacy, or d) the observable geostrategic imbalance in favor of BRICS in general and Russia in particular, it is going to be necessary to inflict damage directly in the territory of the various NATO countries before any negotiated settlements are possible.

Fortunately, even in the aftermath of the murderous attack on the Russian civilian population, it appears the Russians intend to remain disciplined and will limit their response to military targets. However, this will certainly be an escalation which will, no doubt, lead to an absolute explosion of fear, hysteria, and warmongering on the part of Clown World’s pet politicians and media outlets, and, quite possibly, among the general populations.

So, it’s time to prepare yourself for the next stage of World War III. It appears we’re going to learn the difference between a special military operation and an actual war.