Worse than stressed

If we’re in an economic recovery, why are things going worse than the stress test’s adverse scenario? Calculated Risk has the details – with graphs!

This is a quarterly forecast: the Unemployment Rate for Q3 is an average of July and August (rounded to 9.6%), and will probably move higher. Once again, the unemployment rate is already higher than the “more adverse” scenario. Note also that the unemployment rate has already exceeded the peak of the “baseline scenario”.

U3 is 9.7 and U6 is 16.8. Not good times.