For elections held now, Hooker projects the following figures:
The Shiite Unified Iraqi Alliance list – 43.8% = 120 national assembly seats.
The Kurdish list – a surprising 36.4% (more than twice their 16-18% proportion of the general population) = 100 seats.
The Iraqi National Accord – 8.1% = 22 seats. (A formula is being actively sought to retain him as premier even if his showing is low.)
The Iraqi Communist party (the best organized) – 1.6% = 5 seats.
All the Assyrian, Turkomen and Yazdi minorities together – 4 seats.
All the rest – 5 seats.
For me, the money quote is “A formula is being actively sought to retain him [Allawi] as premier even if his showing is low.” Yes, we are fighting to bring freedom and government according to the will of the people to Iraq, except you don’t get self-determination (Kurds), the Sunnis will be given power – presumably elected offices – even if they don’t vote and no one votes for them (according to Colin Powell), and if the people elect an Iraqi would-be Ayatollah, then we’ll just declare a guy with eight percent of the vote to be the winner anyhow. Forget your emotional reaction and put your political loyalties aside for a second; admit it, it reads rather like a Python skit.
I don’t know if this is true or not, of course. I didn’t poll the Iraqi people and I don’t put a whole lot of stock in polls anyhow. But if this poll turns out to be accurate, it’s going to make the pro-democracy war justificationists look not only wrong, but downright ridiculous.