A wildly inaccurate exit poll

For whom did you vote?

37% (R) George Bush (276)

34% (L) Michael Badnarik (254)

14% (C) Michael Peroutka (105)

10% (N) I didn’t vote (74)

04% (D) John Kerry (27)

00% (I) Ralph Nader (3)

00% (G) David Cobb (0)

Total Votes: 739

Yep, this is about as accurate as the early exit polls saying that Kerry was winning every swing state by 20 percent margins. Keep that in mind next time before you start getting your panties in a bunch.

I’m just curious to see the difference between how readers here will actually vote compared to how they said they’d vote a few months back. If you recall, the results then were about 40 percent Bush, 40 percent Badnarik, 15 percent Peroutka and 5 percent Kerry. Unfortunately, I forgot to add the non-vote option, so the numbers will definitely be off.

Anyhow, vote once and only vote if you actually voted – or did not vote. My guess is that Bush will now be around 40 percent, Badnarik, Peroutka and No Vote will all be in the vicinity of 20 percent. Kerry as before, at five percent.

As for the real election, I stand by my prediction that Bush will win with more than 300 electoral college votes. I also predict that the Constitution and Libertarian parties will do a little better than expected, perhaps 2 percent together, and that voter turnout will not be any higher than normal.

UPDATE: Larry Kudlow posts on NRO: “The Horse Race Blog, which I know you’re all watching, has similar numbers. He expects the margin to be 51.0 to 47.3 with Bush garnering 306-327 EVs while Kerry gets 211-232.” In other words, about what I’ve been saying for six months, although I’d prefer to see the LP+CP total north of 2 percent. We’ll see.