From Theory to Farce

A number of people have asked if we are going to do a print edition of Probability Zero. The answer is yes. We will put out both a hardcover and a Signed First Edition in leather. We already have French and German ebooks ready that will be released next week, and we’re talking to a Japanese publisher about an edition there as well.

Thanks to the ebook readers, we’ve cleaned up a few typos and version 003 should be up on Amazon this weekend, including a hilarious new quote for chapter 3 from the father of the Modern Synthesis that succinctly explains the heart of the fundamental flaw of the Neo-Darwinians. I told you biologists hated the math and refused to do it, but here it is right from the horse’s mouth:

Chapter 3: The Miseducation of the Evolutionist

I agree that the principles of genetics must be thoroughly explained, but there is no need for so much Mendelian arithmetic.
—Ernst Mayr, What Evolution Is: From Theory to Fact, (2002)

Well, Ernst, if you’d just done a little more Mendelian arithmetic, or even listened to Eden, Ulam, and Schützenberger back in 1966 when they told you in great detail about all the problems the math was obviously was going to pose for your pet theory, you wouldn’t have made such an all-time ass of yourself in the annals of science.

From theory to fact? More like from theory to farce.

It’s mildly amusing to observe that just one year after Mayr wrote that, the mapping of the human genome that provided empirical support for the Mendelian math he disdained would be completed.

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Oreshnik Take 2

The Russians are increasing the pressure on the Kiev regime:

The Oreshnik was unleashed for the first time since its debut in 2024, and with devastating effect. Preliminary reports state that the Oreshnik hit the Bilche-Volitsko-Uhersky underground gas storage facility, which has a storage capacity of 17.05 billion cubic meters, which is more than 50% of the total capacity of all storage facilities in Ukraine.

Lvov deputy Igor Zinkevich reported that in the Lvov region, the stoves in the kitchen are barely burning, the boilers have gone out and won’t light up – there’s no gas pressure.

The grind continues. The situation is more than a little strange, with the US engaged in asymmetric warfare everywhere from Syria, Iran, and Venezuela to the high seas, while Russia keeps slowly pounding away at the ground game in Ukraine.

Usually the tortoise beats the hare, though.

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The Tree of Woe Interview

Contemplations on the Tree of Woe interviewed me about Probability Zero yesterday:

TOW: You know, I’ve been reading your work since the early 2000s, since back when you were the “Internet Superintelligence” at WorldNetDaily (WND), writing alongside Pat Buchanan, Thomas Sowell, and (gasp) Ben Shapiro. Over the last two decades I’ve watched you essentially make a “speedrun” from an Enlightenment-adjacent libertarian to your current Post-Enlightenment worldview. Maybe in the future they’ll have to talk about the “Early Vox” and “Late Vox” like they do with Wittgenstein.

In any case, your book on New Atheism dismantled its ideology back when people were still taking it really seriously, and your writing on Free Trade essentially completed the demolition that Ian Fletcher began. There’s been other contributions, too, but I signal those two out because they were really influential on me personally; I literally was an atheist free trader in the early 2000s. And of course, I was also a committed Darwinist; my paper for Robert Nozick’s Law & Philosophy seminar at Harvard Law in 2000 was about applying Darwin to Aristotle. Now you’ve turned your evil eye on the Theory of Evolution by Natural Selection to demolish that, too.

But before you were the Internet Superintelligence, you were also a Billboard-topping music producer and a game designer. There’s polymaths and then there’s… whatever you are when you dismantle the Enlightenment project after making the soundtrack for Mortal Kombat while running a classic leather book bindery and red-pilled dating blog. If I didn’t know you actually existed, I would think your bio was a prank, like the Sokal Hoax but for a biography.

The title is provocative. “Probability Zero.” But you’re not actually claiming the probability is zero in the mathematical sense. What does that phrase mean to you?

VD: Actually, it’s pretty damn close. The 5 Sigma standard is utilized by particle physicists to confirm their findings; the Higgs Boson was announced on the basis of a 4.9 Sigma finding by one particle accelerator and a 5.0 Sigma finding by another. This is considered “certainty” by the physicists. If we put the percentages of the observed speed of mutational fixation versus the genetic ground it has to cover in those terms, using not-unreasonable assumptions well within the scientific consensus, we’re talking about a 5.3 Sigma negative probability. The probability is as close to absolute zero as it can be and still be calculated.

It’s a rather long interview. Read the whole thing there.

UPDATE: I don’t know if there are shenanigans at Amazon or what, but all four of the book’s customer reviews have, for some reason, disappeared from the listing. Perhaps it’s just a technical glitch, but given our past experiences there, perhaps not. Either way, if you have finished the book, I encourage you to post a review of it there, particularly if you are a Verified Buyer.

UPDATE: Just a glitch, apparently. They’re back and they brought a friend.

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88 Million x

I had to add this to PROBABILITY ZERO, my new #1 bestseller in Biology, Genetics, and Evolution at the last second, simply because it made my point about the fact that evolutionary biologists don’t even think about the math or the timescales involved at all. Forget actually doing the math, it never even occurs to them that if things happen in a certain way, and in a certain order, then there are always going to be hard time limits for those things to happen.

Remember, according to the current scientific consensus, there are between 6 and 7 million years for 20 million base pairs to fixate throughout the entire human population. Based on my necessary Bio-Cycle correction to the bacteria-based Kimura fixation model, that leaves 146,250 generations to fixate all of those base pairs. Set aside for now whether that is possible or not, the point here is to demonstrate how wildly off-base the evolutionary biologists are, and keep in mind that Richard Dawkins wrote this in 2024, five years AFTER I’d already laid out the mathematical impossibility of natural selection in my original MITTENS post.

JBS Haldane made a relevant hypothetical calculation. He assumed a selection pressure in favour of a new mutation so weak as to seem trivial: for every 1,000 individuals with the mutation who survive, 999 individuals without the mutation will survive. That selection pressure is much too weak to be detected by scientists working in the field. Given Haldane’s assumption, how long will it take for such a new mutation to spread through half the population? His answer was a mere 11,739 generations if the gene is dominant, 321,444 generations if it is recessive. In the case of many animals, that number of generations is an eye-blink by geological standards.

—Richard Dawkins, The Genetic Book of the Dead (2024)

Dawkins somehow imagines that even 642,888 generations for one single base pair is more than enough time for evolution to take place. He’s off by a mere factor of 4.4 x 20 million, or 87,916,307x.

That’s how bad the state of evolutionary biology is. That’s how absurdly clueless their famous, bestselling scientists are.

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Greenland Needs Americans

I really fail to understand the wailing and gnashing of teeth on the part of the Danes and the rest of the European Union. If there are millions of Americans who are just seeking a better life in Greenland, then who are the European Union to stand in their way?

Especially considering the way in which the free movement of peoples is enshrined into the EU constitution as a fundamental human right. Because mass immigration is just neo-colonialism.

If Americans want Greenland, they have a right to it. Greenland is just an idea. It belongs to the world. And it isn’t even green, anyhow.

The amusing thing about the morons of Clown World is that they never seem to anticipate the inevitability of their own rhetoric being used against them by others operating in their own self-interest.

Besides, once Americans get to Greenland, they’re as Greenlandian as every other Greenlander. Haven’t we been repeatedly assured of this from the “X has always been a nation of immigrants” crowd? America is just exporting its idea to Greenland, and who can possibly oppose that?

On a related note, I give Australia about twenty years before it’s as formally Chinese as Taiwan.

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They Should Have Fired Lamar

I cannot believe the Baltimore Ravens fired John Harbaugh. What he did with Lamar Jackson bordered on the miraculous, although Jackson certainly merits credit for being far more coachable and more willing to work on improving as a quarterback than anyone ever imagined possible.

Harbaugh will have another head-coaching job within two weeks, and quite possibly before the end of the weekend. The Ravens aren’t going deep into the playoffs with Lamar, in fact, they may not see the playoffs again while he is their quarterback.

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CPB is Dead

This would have distressed me deeply as a small child. I remember begging my mother to support the local PBS phoneathon a long, long time ago. Now, all I can say is good riddance:

The non-profit charged by Congress with allocating funds to NPR, PBS and other US public radio and television stations announced it is dissolving after massive federal funding cuts under Donald Trump. The Corporation for Public Broadcasting (CPB) announced on Monday that its board of directors had voted to dissolve the organization after nearly 60 years in operation.

Patricia Harrison, president and CEO of the CPB, said in a statement on Monday that the organization’s board of directors voted to dissolve the organization as it “faced a profound responsibility”.

She added: “CPB’s final act would be to protect the integrity of the public media system and the democratic values by dissolving, rather than allowing the organization to remain defunded and vulnerable to additional attack.”

These people and their endless self-declared victories. It’s just so tedious and tiresome. But I hope more NGOs and corporations will protect their integrity by ending themselves.

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Answering McCarthy

Just to be clear, I am a massive fan of Dennis McCarthy. The work he has done in demonstrating that Lord Thomas North was the true author of the Shakespearean plays is one of the most astonishing demonstrations of historical research I’ve ever seen. He’s a true iconoclast.

That being said, he obviously hasn’t done any similarly methodical work with regards to evolution and Darwin, because if he had, he would have been perfectly capable of writing Probability Zero himself. Still, since he has called out those who challenge Darwin’s On the Origin of Species, I will confront the points he raises.

What is important here is that the premises that Darwin relies on are easy-to-understand facts that no one can or does dispute. And this, in turn, naturally implies the transformation of species over time. Those who challenge Darwin’s On the Origin of Species should have to confront these points. To paraphrase and add more detail to the comic above:

Since volcanic islands form in the middle of oceans, plants and animals have to reach them by crossing wide marine barriers.

Species on oceanic islands also tend to be endemic (or particular) to those islands—appearing nowhere else in the world (e.g., the marine iguanas of Galápagos or Hawaii’s colorful birds known as honeycreepers).

Yet these new island species tend to most closely resemble—but are not identical to—plants and animals from the nearest continent. For example, the iguanas and finches of Galápagos resemble the iguanas and finches of South America. Still, these island taxa are their own species and have clearly differentiated from their continental counterparts.

So how did this happen? Darwin came up with the only reasonable answer. Obviously, a small group of iguanas, finches, etc., on Galápagos originally reached the islands from South America—and then… well, they had to change. They had to transform from the types of iguanas and finches he saw in South America into these new Galápagan species that inhabit the islands today.

What other reasonable explanation is there?

I can and do dispute it. In fact, I will disprove it without even needing to resort to any of the work that I have done in writing Probability Zero. The much more reasonable explanation that has hitherto eluded him is that those island taxa are not their own species and have not differentiated from their continental counterparts at the genetic level. Neither natural selection nor Darwin have anything to do with it.

Please note that I wrote the previous sentence before doing any research whatsoever. Which I have now done.

And unsurprisingly, the available empirical data entirely supports my explanation and undermines the Darwinian one that McCarthy erroneously assumes to be unassailable. As it turns out, the empirical Galápagos data is perfectly consistent with MITTENS and its reproductive constraints on the speed of evolution. And it is extremely awkward for the standard neo-Darwinian narrative, which claims these systems demonstrate natural selection generating new species through accumulated beneficial mutations.

They do not. As we have reliably observed to be the case, the actual genomic evidence undercuts that story in several ways.

For the finches: The celebrated beak diversity—the textbook example of adaptive radiation—turns out not to be built from new mutations at all. The ALX1 haplotypes responsible for blunt versus pointed beaks predate the radiation itself. The finches aren’t demonstrating the power of mutation-plus-selection to generate novelty; they’re demonstrating the reshuffling of pre-existing variation. This is precisely the Incomplete Lineage Sorting problem discussed in PZ—phenotypic differentiation running ahead of genetic differentiation, with perceived “species” that can’t be distinguished by standard molecular markers because there hasn’t been time for the alleles to sort.

Researchers found that DNA methylation patterns correlated well with phylogenetic distance among finch species, while copy number variations in actual DNA sequence did not. The genomes are, in their words, “extremely similar” across species. The morphological diversity appears to be driven by differential gene expression rather than by accumulated sequence changes. Darwin was not involved.

For the iguanas: 4.5 million years of supposed divergence, yet marine and land iguanas remain interfertile. The genetic differentiation within marine iguana populations, despite dramatic local adaptations, is only 30,000-50,000 years deep. The morphological and physiological gulf between marine and land iguanas is enormous, but the genetic distance doesn’t match.

The Galapagos systems actually show:

  • Morphological change outpacing genetic fixation — exactly what we’d expect if the standard model’s fixation timescales are correct but grossly insufficient for the claimed transformations.
  • Pre-existing variation doing the heavy lifting. These are not new mutations being selected, but ancestral polymorphisms being sorted and reshuffled.
  • Retained interfertility despite “speciation” which demonstrates that the genetic barriers required for true reproductive isolation haven’t accumulated
  • Hybridization and introgression are the major forces, which actively work against the fixation of lineage-specific mutations by homogenizing gene pools

With all due respect to Mr. McCarthy, I have legitimately done to Darwin what he did to Shakespeare, and more. In both cases, the historical record will be corrected, sooner or later. And should he ever be interested in reviewing the evidence, I would be delighted to send him a copy of Probability Zero.

UPDATE: Mr. McCarthy reposted his July article today and I’d encourage everyone to read it. And remember, you can’t expect people to contemplate what they don’t know. The Galapagos island argument is a perfectly sensible one, it’s merely been outmoded by developments in technology and science. I left a comment there as well, because I have tremendous respect for the man.

First, huge fan of your work. Regardless of what we happen to agree or disagree on.

I’d encourage you to take a look at PROBABILITY ZERO which very clearly demonstrates the mathematical impossibility of natural selection accounting for much in the way of variation, much less speciation. One thing that will very likely surprise you is that the top mathematicians and physicists have known that it was nonsense since 1966, when they absolutely destroyed Mayr, the father of the Modern Synthesis, and three other top biologists at the Wistar Symposium.

However, they didn’t have access to the genomic data that we do now, so the biologists were able to very convincingly play dumb, since the transcript shows they didn’t understand what the mathematicians were talking about anyhow. Now that we have the data, it’s easy to show that at its absolute peak, natural selection can only account for a maximum of 0.00013 percent of the observed genomic differences between Man and the CHLCA.

The book also addresses parallel fixation, neutral theory, and drift in detail, and even provides a more accurate fixation model than Wright-Fisher or Kimura, because insects and humans don’t reproduce like bacteria.

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China Bans Exports to Japan

Not all exports, you understand, but all dual-use exports:

China on Tuesday banned exports of goods that could be used for military purposes to Japan, a move that escalates tensions between Beijing and a key U.S. ally as disputes intensify over Taiwan. The Chinese commerce ministry said in a statement that any items that have a dual use — civilian and military — would no longer be exported to Japan.

The government did not offer specifics on which items would be included in the ban. But state-affiliated media said Beijing was considering whether to include rare-earth minerals.

Japanese leaders increasingly have linked Taiwan’s fate to Japan’s own security, with Tokyo’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi warning that a Chinese move against the island could amount to a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan — a legal threshold that could permit military action under Japan’s self-defense laws.

The US Secretary of War cited the Fuck Around and Find Out principle in relation to Venezuala. It appears China is in the process of applying the same principle to Japan and everyone else who attempts to interfere with the Xinroe Doctrine in the South China Sea.

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You Should Read This One

I’ve written a reasonable number of books. And I rarely tell anyone they should read them, because both tastes and interests vary. But given some of the things happening behind the scenes, given the 12 science papers I have now written, I really would recommend that you read Probability Zero, as at this point there is a better than 80 percent chance that it is the most significant work in the biology field published since Origin of the Species. That sounds insane and outrageous, of course, but then, you haven’t read the science papers, nor seen the ratings assigned them by other AI systems yet.

It’s already the #1 bestseller in Biology.

“Probability Zero represents the most rigorous mathematical challenge to Neo-Darwinian theory ever published. Period.”

—Frank J. Tipler, Professor of Mathematical Physics, Tulane University

THE BONFIRE OF MODERN BIOLOGY

For over a century, the Theory of Evolution by Natural Selection has served as the secular creation myth of the modern world. It has been hailed as the origin of the species, the foundation of modern biology, the cornerstone of the Enlightenment, and the universal acid that redefined Man’s place in the universe.

But after 150 years of storytelling, the scientific myths finally met the math.

In Probability Zero, Vox Day conducts the final forensic audit of a failed theory. This is not another entry in the culture wars, but a funeral for an outdated 19th-century narrative that has finally been caught in the headlights of 21st-century genomic data. By subjecting the big ideas of Darwin, Haldane, Mayr, Kimura, and Dawkins to the pitiless light of statistical and mathematical analysis, Day demonstrates that the Modern Synthesis isn’t just flawed—it is absolutely impossible.

THE REALITY CHECK

To understand the scientific catastrophe that is modern biology, imagine you are told that a man walked from New York City to Los Angeles in under five minutes. You don’t need to be a scientist or a statistician to know that is impossible, you only need to have a rough idea about how fast the average human walks.

Probability Zero applies this same logic to genetic science. If the genomic distance between a human and a chimpanzee is a “cross-country journey” of 40 million mutations, and the structural speed limits of natural selection only allow for a few dozen steps, then evolutionary theory hasn’t just failed—it has hit a brick wall constructed of unyielding mathematics.

Inside this definitive mathematical audit, you will find:

  • The MITTENS Proof: A rigorous, step-by-step deconstruction of why natural selection cannot possibly account for even a small fraction of the complexity of life or the origin of the species.
  • The Bernoulli Barrier and Ulam’s Noise: The mathematical proof that “parallel fixation” is a statistical mirage that is swamped by the noise of genetic variation.
  • The Bio-Cycle Fixation Model: A new model of mutational fixation that outperforms the standard models by 70 percent because insects and mammals don’t reproduce like bacteria.
  • Haldane’s Dilemma: The dilemma is resolved and JBS Haldane’s substitution limit is mathematically and empirically confirmed.
  • The Selfish Delusion: Why Dawkins’s elegant metaphors collapse once translated into the inflexible language of population genetics.

Gemini 3 Pro audited PROBABILITY ZERO and compared it to three other landmarks of evolutionary biology.

  • Probability Zero: Quantitative. High Rigor: 9.7
  • Systematics & The Origin of Species: Taxonomic. Medium Rigor: 6.0
  • The Structure of Evolutionary Theory: Conceptual. Low Rigor: 4.5
  • The Selfish Gene: Narrative. Zero Rigor: 1.5

The era of scientific hand-waving is over. The theory of random evolution by natural selection, sexual selection, biased mutation, genetic drift, and gene flow is finished. If its conclusions hold up to critical review – and you can run the numbers past any AI system yourself – PROBABILITY ZERO has corrected over 150 years of biology being stuck in a scientific dead end.

This book is going to be attacked more than all my previous books combined, and deservedly so. So, if you’ve read it, I strongly encourage you to post a review of it.

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