Asking for trouble

Very, very serious trouble:

United States will work with Ukraine to ensure that it meets the criteria for NATO membership, says the US Department of State just days before US Secretary of State’s visit to the country.

President Trump’s greatest accomplishment was keeping the USA out of the war with Russia that was in the cards if Hillary Clinton had been elected. Clinton had made it clear that she was going to invite Ukraine to join NATO, which was why there were Russian troops on the border prepared to render that a moot point before the invitation could be issued.

The Biden Not-Administration backed down two weeks ago when Putin ordered a similar mobilization, but now the neoclowns who run it are still attempting to push the issue. It’s a very, very bad idea, because Russia will not permit Ukraine to join NATO, and will make sure that there is no Ukraine to join it if necessary.


Begging for a coup

France may be about to learn that using the military’s standards against it is an effective way to convince the military to abandon its standards:

Eighteen French servicemen, who have been identified as signatories of a letter warning President Emmanuel Macron about a looming “civil war,” will come before a military court, the Armed Forces Chief of Staff said.

Each of the identified soldiers and officers would appear before a higher military council, the Armed Forces Chief of Staff, General Francois Lecointre, told Le Parisien. All of them would be subjected to “disciplinary sanctions,” with the harsher ones reserved for the most senior ranks, he added.

“I believe that the higher the responsibilities, the stronger the obligation of neutrality… is,” the general said. The chief of staff also said that those among the semi-retired generals who signed the controversial letter could potentially be forced to leave military service and go into full retirement.

“These generals will each appear before a higher military tribunal. Following this procedure, it will be the President of the Republic who will sign a decree on [their] retirement,” Lecointre said.

French defense minister threatens ‘sanctions’ against ex-generals behind open letter blasting Islamism and ‘suburban hordes’

Such a strong response was sparked by an open letter declaring the country is headed toward “civil war,” signed by several former high-ranking military personnel as well as “a hundred senior officers and more than a thousand soldiers.” The appeal published in the conservative ‘Valeurs Actuelles’ news magazine urged Macron to save the nation from Islamism and the “suburban hordes” of immigrants.

As always, the Promethean tactics are based upon subversion and lies. The military has a duty to defend the nation against invasion, which the enemies of the nation have subverted by redefining the nation as the state and redefining invasion as immigration.

But immigration is war. And prosecuting the messenger is never wise.

It appears the end of the Fifth Republic is approaching. It has already survived longer than three of its predecessors, and is unlikely to last as long as the Third Republic did.


Asymetrical, tough, and swift

Vladimir Putin issues a warning in the aftermath of Ukraine and the neoclowns that are pulling their puppet state’s strings backing down in response to Russia’s mobilization on its borders:

The meaning and purpose of Russia’s policy in the international arena – I will just say a few words about this to conclude my address – is to ensure peace and security for the well-being of our citizens, for the stable development of our country. Russia certainly has its own interests we defend and will continue to defend within the framework of international law, as all other states do. And if someone refuses to understand this obvious thing or does not want to conduct a dialogue and chooses a selfish and arrogant tone with us, Russia will always find a way to defend its stance.

At the same time, unfortunately, everyone in the world seems to be used to the practice of politically motivated, illegal economic sanctions and to certain actors’ brutal attempts to impose their will on others by force. But today, this practice is degenerating into something even more dangerous – I am referring to the recently exposed direct interference in Belarus in an attempt to orchestrate a coup d’état and assassinate the President of that country. At the same time, it is typical that even such flagrant actions have not been condemned by the so-called collective West. Nobody seemed to notice. Everyone pretends nothing is happening.

But listen, you can think whatever you like of, say, Ukrainian President Yanukovych or Maduro in Venezuela. I repeat, you can like or dislike them, including Yanukovych who almost got killed, too, and removed from power via an armed coup. You can have your own opinion of President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko’s policy. But the practice of staging coups d’état and planning political assassinations, including those of high-ranking officials – well, this goes too far. This is beyond any limits.

Suffice it to mention the admission made by the detained participants in the conspiracy about a planned siege of Minsk, including plans to block the city infrastructure and communications, and a complete shutdown of the entire power system in the capital of Belarus! This actually means they were preparing a massive cyberattack. What else could it be? You know, you cannot just do it all with one switch.

Clearly, there is a reason why our Western colleagues have been stubbornly rejecting Russia’s numerous proposals to establish an international dialogue on information and cyber security. We have come up with these proposals many times. They avoid even discussing this matter.

What if there had been a real attempt at a coup d’état in Belarus? After all, this was the ultimate goal. How many people would have been hurt? What would have become of Belarus? Nobody is thinking about this.

Just as no one was thinking about the future of Ukraine during the coup in that country.

All the while, unfriendly moves towards Russia have also continued unabated. Some countries have taken up an unseemly routine where they pick on Russia for any reason, most often, for no reason at all. It is some kind of new sport of who shouts the loudest.

In this regard, we behave in an extremely restrained manner, I would even say, modestly, and I am saying this without irony. Often, we prefer not to respond at all, not just to unfriendly moves, but even to outright rudeness. We want to maintain good relations with everyone who participates in the international dialogue. But we see what is happening in real life. As I said, every now and then they are picking on Russia, for no reason. And of course, all sorts of petty Tabaquis are running around them like Tabaqui ran around Shere Khan – everything is like in Kipling’s book – howling along in order to make their sovereign happy. Kipling was a great writer.

We really want to maintain good relations with all those engaged in international communication, including, by the way, those with whom we have not been getting along lately, to put it mildly. We really do not want to burn bridges. But if someone mistakes our good intentions for indifference or weakness and intends to burn or even blow up these bridges, they must know that Russia’s response will be asymmetrical, swift and tough.

Those behind provocations that threaten the core interests of our security will regret what they have done in a way they have not regretted anything for a long time.

The neoclowns will posture and prattle about the Russian leader’s idle threats even as they continue to bang their usual drums for ever more war in Syria, Iran, Ukraine, and the South China Sea. But it is increasingly obvious that it is the US empire, not the Russian republic, that is now writing checks its military cannot cash. 

I have to admit, I quite enjoyed the Kipling aside. Kipling was a great writer. I wonder what he would have made of being cited by a Russian leader standing against imperialism.


Poking the Bear

As Patreon has learned, poking the big bear is never a good idea.

QUESTION: At present, there are roughly 40,000 US-NATO troops massed along the Russian border conducting military exercises while scores of Russian tanks, artillery and an estimated 85,000 Russian troops are now located about 25 miles from Ukraine’s eastern border. Both armies are on hair-trigger alert and prepared for any sudden provocation. If the Ukrainian Army invades the Russian-speaking region of Ukraine (Donbas), Moscow will likely respond.

So, will there be a conflagration in the Ukraine this spring and, if so, how will Putin respond? Will he limit the scope of his campaign to the Donbas or push onward to Kiev?

ISRAEL SHAMIR: If the Russian army crosses the Ukrainian border, it won’t stop in the Donbas. The war will be brief and the Ukraine will be split into pieces. But will it happen?

Russia’s totem animal, the Bear, is a strong and peaceful animal that is not easily aroused, but once provoked, it is unstoppable. Russian rulers have typically fit this image. They weren’t adventurous, but level-headed and prudent. Putin, who is the quintessential Russian ruler, is risk-averse. He won’t start a war he never wanted to begin with, but he will act decisively if he needs to do so. Consider 2014, after the Ukrainian coup: the lawful Ukrainian president Mr Yanukovich ran to Russia and asked Putin to help him regain power. At that time, the Ukrainian army was weak and Russia could have easily retaken the country without facing any significant resistance. But, surprisingly, Putin did not give the order to take Kiev.

Putin is unpredictable. He ordered the seizure of Crimea despite the counsel of his advisors. It was an unexpected move, and it worked like a charm. He also pummeled Georgia in 2008 after Saakashvili invaded South Ossetia. This was another surprise move that succeeded better than anyone could have imagined. If the Ukrainians try to retake Donbas, the Russian army will beat them badly and continue on to Kiev. The presence of NATO’s troops will not deter Putin.

As for the Democrats, they can push Kiev to attack, but they will end up losing the Ukraine in the process. If the point is to poison relations between Russia and Europe, they can try to do so, but if they think the Russo-Ukrainian war is going to drag on, they’re mistaken. And if they think Putin won’t defend the Donbas, they’ve made a serious miscalculation.

I think Shamir’s perspective on the neoclowns is correct. Being bigtime bluffers themselves – literally everything they do is a bluff – they can’t imagine that everyone else isn’t bluffing. So, they assume that Putin is going to either back down, or at most, defend the Donbas in the same way South Ossetia was defended.

However, Putin and the Russian people now have considerably more experience of the neoclown foreign policy and better understand what Clownworld is. This was the key phrase of the interview, in my opinion: Russians think that a big war is unavoidable, so it’s probably better to have the Ukraine under Moscow’s control before that war breaks out. The US is an enemy; that is the feeling in Russia.  


The USA breaks another agreement

I don’t know why anyone bothers even trying to make agreements with the US government. They’ve been breaking them regularly since the 18th century:

Since President Biden is breaking the US-Taliban peace deal by pushing back the May 1st withdrawal deadline to September 11th, the Taliban said it is ready to attack US troops again and turn the final months of Washington’s almost twenty-year-old war into a “nightmare.”

Mullah Salih Khan, a Taliban commander in the Helmand Province, told The Daily Beast on Wednesday that the group is prepared to strike “very much prepared to strike” US and Afghan government forces, warning that the Taliban will turn Afghanistan “into a nightmare” for them.

Mullah Mujahid Rahman, a Taliban subcommander from the Ghazni province, also said the group was ready to fight the US. He said the US has “proven they can’t be trusted after retreating from the May 1st deadline” and that the Taliban is willing to “fight till the end” of the US occupation. “We have the pride of defeating about 100,000 invaders from [different] countries in Afghanistan. A few thousand won’t be a problem at all,” he said.

Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid delivered a warning via Twitter on Wednesday. “If the agreement is breached and foreign forces fail to exit our country on the specified date, problems will certainly be compounded and those whom failed to comply with the agreement will be held liable,” he said.

The USA wasn’t always the Evil Empire. But it obviously is now. Although it’s more of a Retarded Evil Clown Empire Wearing a Dress Without Bothering to Shave Its Legs.


The Saker is not optimistic

Even though Biden has, to a certain extent, backed down, The Saker is still concerned about the prospects of war over Ukraine:

Bad news all around today.  The US has just slammed provocative sanctions against Russia even though the US ambassador to Moscow was summoned to the Foreign Ministry and clearly told that if the US imposes more sanctions there will be no meeting between Putin and Biden.

Then there is this: the US has informed the Turkish authorities that they will not send two USN ships into the Black Sea.  This is politically a good sign, but in military terms, this is what the US should be doing if they were preparing for war.  Why?  Because any USN ship in the Black Sea at the moment of the initiation of a conflict would be sunk withing minutes: not only do the Russians have formidable missiles – Bal and Bastion – they had SIX advanced diesel-electric submarines of the 636.3 class ready to “greet” them.  Keep in mind that engaging submarines without air cover is another form of collective suicide.

So, the phone call was a deception and the US is still going down the road towards war with Russia.

In my professional opinion, what I see is a joint preparation by the Ukronazis and the USA (along with the UK and Poland) to attack the Donbass and force a conflict upon Russia.

It is very hard for me to see how a war could be avoided.

UPDATE: Biden has just declared a national emergency in the USA in response to the Russian threat.  He will make a special address to the nation tonight.

I don’t have an opinion, simply because I have no confidence about who is actually calling the shots behind the scenes of the Biden Not-Administration. If it’s China or the neoclowns, there will be war. If it is the US military, there will not be war.

Biden, of course, has no idea what is going on. The question is, who is writing his script? 


Backing down with alacrity

The neoclowns are belatedly beginning to realize that a proxy war with Russia over Ukraine is not going to end well for them or their clown-puppet regime:

Ukraine has warned Russia that it will bear ‘very painful’ consequences if it invades as Vladimir Putin continues to mass his forces in eastern Europe. Dmytro Kuleba, the country’s foreign minister, added that Moscow is ‘openly’ threatening Ukraine with ‘destruction’ by stationing 80,000 troops along its border – with more arriving every day.
He issued the warning following a meeting with the foreign ministers of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – NATO allies in the region – saying ‘the four of us condemn the exacerbation of the situation by Russia.’ 
‘The world is on the side of Ukraine and international law, and this is one of the elements of restraining Russia from reckless actions,’ he added.
He spoke as Joe Biden prepares to slap sanctions on Russia in response to bounties put on American troops in Afghanistan, attempts to interfere in US elections, and the SolarWinds cyber attack of federal government data which US intelligence services blame on Moscow. Sanctions are likely to include the expulsion of 10 Russians from the US including diplomats, extending a ban on US banks trading Russian sovereign debt, and targeted measures against 30 Russian entities, US media reported, saying the move could happen as soon as today.
In response, Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that Mosow will respond in kind to any ‘illegal’ sanctions, adding that it ‘will not help’ the prospect of talks between Biden and Putin. He added that it is ‘too early’ to talk about de-escalating tensions along the Ukraine border despite Biden’s calls for restraint earlier in the week….
In another sign that Biden is now softening his tone towards Moscow, the deployment of two US destroyers into the Black Sea was cancelled last night.
Turkey had originally confirmed that Washington had asked for permission for two warships – the USS Donald Cook and USS Roosevelt – to transit through straits which it polices and into the Black Sea in a move that was assumed to be a deterrent to Putin.
But last night Turkey said the U.S. Embassy in Ankara had notified the foreign ministry of the decision, without giving a reason. U.S. officials were not immediately available for comment. 

Once more, we see Vladimir Putin demonstrating the difference between influence and power. It’s all fun and games until someone sends 100,000 troops supported by air, armor, and artillery on your border. However, it’s important to note that the USA is now clearly in a state of cold war with both Russia and China, only this time the economic, technology, and demographic trends are not in its favor.


The USA is the Adversary

Russia issues a pair of very clear warnings to the US about its continued provocations over Ukraine:

Two detachments of the Russian Army, along with three airborne units, are ready to act in the event tensions with the West escalate into full-blown fighting, Moscow announced on Tuesday following a surprise inspection of troops.

After paying a visit to the soldiers, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu told journalists that the personnel met the standards required for the situation. “The troops have shown full readiness and ability to fulfill the tasks of ensuring the country’s military security,” he said. “Currently, these associations and formations are engaged in drills and exercises.”

Shoigu said that the redeployments had taken place “in response to the military activity of the alliance that threatens Russia.” The move comes amid escalating tension with the US-led NATO bloc and after bloody fighting in eastern Ukraine between Kiev’s forces and two breakaway republics….

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told journalists that there is “absolutely nothing” that requires the Americans’ presence near his country’s Black Sea shore, accusing the White House of trying to provoke Moscow.

“Provocative in the literal sense of the word: they are testing our strength, playing on our nerves. They won’t succeed,” he said, noting that Washington would also be better off staying away.

“It will be for their own good,” Ryabkov added, also dubbing Washington as Moscow’s “adversary.” His use of the term marks a departure from Moscow’s usual manner of referring to the Americans as “partners.” He also accused Washington of “doing everything to undermine Russia’s position in the international arena.”

The official’s words come after the US told Turkey that two American warships would pass through the Bosporus Strait into the Black Sea next week.

It is often said that there is stupid, there is very stupid, and there is invade Russia stupid. The rule is very simple and straightforward. If your name is not “the Great Chingiss Khan”, you do not invade Russia under any circumstances.

And especially not because a Jewish comedian holding political office is sufficiently ignorant of military matters to start a war on its borders. In Ukraine, Clownworld is not a metaphor, it is quite literally Clownworld.

Vladimir Putin has made it clear that Russia does not intend to fight its next war inside its borders. And I don’t think he’s referring to Ukraine either.

UPDATE: this doesn’t bode terribly well.

The Russian navy will hold snap live-fire drills in the Black Sea today as the first of two US warships is expected to arrive, the military has announced. Two missile ships – the Graivoron and Vyshny Volochek – will take part in target practice alongside the missile hovercraft Samum, accompanied by the frigate Admiral Makarov and mine-sweeping ship Ivan Golubets, the Russian navy’s Black Sea fleet command said.


Desperately seeking war

The sinking of a pair of destroyers is unlikely to awake the US public to the fact that the US military is no longer the global monopower it was from 1989 to 2015. Which is probably why the Russians won’t bother to sink them unless it becomes absolutely necessary:

American sailors have set course for the Black Sea, off the south coast of Russia, in a move widely seen as a show of support for Ukraine, where fighting between Kiev’s forces and separatist militias has worsened in recent weeks.
On Friday, a source at the Turkish foreign ministry told TASS that it had received a notification from Washington that two US warships would pass through the Bosporus straits and into the Black Sea. Under international law, Ankara controls access to the inland body of water for certain types of vessels, including navy ships.
In accordance with these conventions, Turkish envoys say they “were notified through diplomatic channels 15 days ago that two US warships would enter the Black Sea. The ships will remain there until 4 May,” the unnamed official said. The journey will take the crews almost 9,000 miles from the eastern seaboard of America, near to coastal Ukraine and Russia, including the sensitive and disputed Crimean peninsula.
Since then, the vessels have been named by Istanbul-based news network NTV as the USS Roosevelt, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, and the USS Donald Cook, a guided missile destroyer that was previously intercepted by Russian jets off the coast of Kaliningrad, in the Baltic Sea.
The maneuver comes amid an escalating military conflict in the East of Ukraine between Kiev’s army and separatist forces in the Donbass, who are backed by Moscow. The Kremlin has described the situation as “frightening,” and has held talks this week with counterparts in Washington to “explain” the situation.

The evil architects of the neo-liberal world order know that it has failed, which is why they’re trying to rapidly erect a new one on the basis of fake diseases, not-vaccines, and movement controls.

In a recent Chatham House webinar with former British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, 97-year-old Kissinger called on the U.S. to create a balance with existing global forces, adding

“if you imagine that the world commits itself to an endless competition based on the dominance of whoever is superior at the moment, then a breakdown of the order is inevitable. And the consequences of a breakdown would be catastrophic.”

The veteran diplomat urged the U.S. to understand that not every issue has “final solutions” and warned

“if we don’t get to an understanding with China on that point, then we will be in a pre-World War One-type situation in which there are perennial conflicts that get solved on an immediate basis but one of them gets out of control at some point.”

However, the idea that the U.S. should stop imposing its will on everyone else will not be easily accepted in Washington. This is attested by the sharp rhetoric and personal insults that U.S. President Joe Biden continually levels against his Russian and Chinese counterparts, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.  

High-ranking Chinese official Yang Jiechi told U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on March 18 in Alaska that “the United States does not have the qualification to say that it wants to speak to China from a position of strength.” Then, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi boldly said days later on March 22 during their meeting in Beijing that they “jointly safeguard multilateralism, maintain the international system with the UN at its core and the international order based on international law, while firmly opposing unilateral sanctions as well as interference in other countries’ internal affairs.”


Taiwan for War with Russia

I suspect that is the deal that the Biden not-Adminstration made with its paymasters in order for its support of his fake election. One defense expert even anticipates an invasion of Taiwan within three years:

Beijing’s incursions are part of a series of dry runs in preparation for an invasion of Taiwan, John Mills, former director of cybersecurity policy, strategy, and international affairs at the Office of the U.S. Secretary of Defense, told The Epoch Times.

Mills projects that these exercises could culminate in a large-scale dry run in the next two years. These dry runs are necessary, Mills said, given the complexity of amphibious landing operations—as well as the fact that the Chinese military has never conducted a forced landing on a hostile power in a real-life situation before.

Any amphibious assault on Taiwan may also involve swarms of Chinese civilian merchant vessels and fishing boats, he said.

He believes an invasion could come in the next three years—much sooner than the six-year estimate given by U.S. Adm. Philip Davidson, head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), during a congressional hearing in early March.

“If they haven’t done it in 10 years, I think Xi will probably have been removed from office. I think even six years is pushing it,” Mills said. He added that Xi could come under pressure to attack Taiwan to deflect attention away from internal problems, such as an economic crisis.

U.S. Adm. John Aquilino, the nominee to replace Davidson as head of INDOPACOM, at his confirmation hearing in March declined to endorse Davidson’s six-year estimate, but said the threat of a Chinese invasion is “much closer to us than most think.”

I would assume the plan is to invade Taiwan while their asset is still believed to be Commander-in-Chief of the US military and capable of misdirecting it. This explains why Ukraine is being actively encouraged to launch a suicidal war against Russia while asking to join NATO, as war in Ukraine would commit the US military to an unwinnable war against Russia, thereby providing China a free hand to operate in the South China Sea without US interference.