Tag: war

Nukes are Not the Problem

The strategery at NATO is beyond merely stupid.

NATO forces would already be on the ground in Ukraine fighting Russian troops if it weren’t for Moscow’s arsenal of nuclear weapons, the outgoing chief of the US-led bloc’s Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer, has said.

Speaking on Sunday during a defense summit in the Czech Republic, Bauer recalled NATO’s past experience of taking part in conflicts in Afghanistan and in Iraq. He noted that fighting Russia in Ukraine would, however, be “not the same” as fighting in Afghanistan because the Taliban militants did not possess nuclear weapons.

“I am absolutely sure if the Russians did not have nuclear weapons, we would have been in Ukraine, kicking them out,” the admiral suggested.

The admiral appears to have forgotten that NATO lost the war in Afghanistan and fled “the graveyard of empires” with alacrity. With or without nukes, NATO is going to lose any war or proxy war with Russia. At this point, US admirals would be wiser to forget both Russia and China focus their attention on how to avoid losing the naval war with the Yemenis as well as the coming conflict with the Mexican cartels.

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The Plan is the Prediction

Time to lay off the hopium and address the utter retardery of what may, or may not, be the incoming Trump administration’s plan for ending the war in Ukraine.

Trump’s team has begun discussing a new plan to end the conflict in Ukraine, — WSJ

▪️The agreement includes several points: they want to oblige Kyiv to refuse to join NATO for decades, and freeze the front line and create a demilitarized zone.

▪️It is not known who will ensure its security, but one source ruled out the involvement of US and UN troops: “We will not send Americans to maintain peace in Ukraine. And we will not pay for it. Ask the Poles, Germans, English and French to do it.”

▪️Ukraine will also continue to receive weapons and military training assistance from the US

This would appear to be absurd on its face. There is no reason for Russia to agree to any front-line freezing action when the Ukrainian defenses are collapsing. The situation is not what it was back when Trump first declared that he could end the war in a single day; US threats to escalate are empty in the face of Russia’s preparations for any further escalation, including a direct war between Russia and the USA.

Going hot means the USA not only loses Ukraine, but likely Israel, Taiwan, Japan, and possibly South Korea as well. China is content to bide its time as long as things stay more or less calm, but it will almost certainly make its move to achieve its regional goals as soon as the US military is fully committed to a front outside of Asia. Remember, the USA no longer possesses the ability to fight two simultaneous wars against regional powers.

The only certain plan for peace is an unconditional Ukrainian surrender. This will require a regime change in Kiev, which almost certainly necessitates a complete withdrawal of support for the insane and illegitimate regime. Fortunately, there is a very good chance this will take place early in the new year, despite what Trump and Musk said to Zelensky in their telephone call. Certainly, the European Union is expecting US support to be withdrawn in the near future.

European Union leaders are discussing whether they can afford to keep financing the Ukrainian military if US President-elect Donald Trump decides to pull Washington’s support for Kiev, Bloomberg reported on Friday. At a meeting in Budapest on Thursday, EU officials “held discussions on whether the bloc will be ready to foot the bill for the war,” the American news outlet reported, paraphrasing anonymous sources. According to one of these sources, the “big concern is that Trump will seek to shift the financial burden on Europe.” Trump repeatedly promised on the campaign trail to end the conflict within “24 hours,” but offered few specifics as to how he would achieve this. However, he said on numerous occasions that Washington’s European allies would have to “pay up” if they want to keep fighting, and reportedly plans on leaving the Europeans to pay for and enforce any post-conflict security arrangement.

For those people who still ride the high from the election win for MAGA, I’ll pour some cold water on their expectations. Trump cannot stop anything in 404 no matter how he tries, or whatever hollow outward PR effects he may employ, what he wants is to freeze SMO and then put the burden of supporting 404 on Europe’s shoulders. That’s the plan. It is stupid, almost childish plan, but half of it may still work–that is making EU pay for 404. And here we have to understand one very important fact–it was EU which played a crucial role in unleashing the mayhem on Maidan in 2013 and then lied to Russian face during Minsk Accords. EU doesn’t have capability and capacity to really aid 404–NATO has been largely demilitarized.

The European leaders are arguably more deranged than Kiev’s. They have no real armies, very little war material, and no significant industrial capacity. Their militaries are little more than police forces meant to intimidate their own citizens and keep them in line. There is absolutely nothing they can do to deter Russia in any way; their feeble attempt to exert their economic power backfired brutally and now their economies are collapsing along with their governments. It’s not 1950 anymore, it’s not even 1990, and the balance of global power has shifted from West to East.

No doubt Clown World will attempt to coopt the Germans into volunteering for playing the role of Ukraine 2; the new German Finance Minister is a Blackrock creature. But no matter how cowed, shamed, denationalized, and vaxxed the Germans are, they’re not going to sign up for a third war with Russia in just over a century. Not only do the Germans already know from bitter experience how it would inevitably end, but they’ve seen how badly the people of Ukraine have suffered in seeing their men needlessly sacrificed to the Russian war machine in service to Clown World’s wicked goals.

The good thing is that the Trump plan for Ukraine, whatever it actually turns out to be, will give us a very clear indicator of whether we’re going to see the ascendance of the God-Emperor and total war on Clown World or just the return of Zion Don and four more years of watching him be played like a fiddle by the neocons again as the West continues its descent into political collapse and post-civilized barbarism.

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The Math of Attrition

Regardless of whom the Script dictates “wins” the US presidential “election” on Tuesday, or whenever the results are announced after the media has finished massaging the numbers we are supposed to take seriously, the financing for the Ukrainian war effort must be stopped immediately on humanitarian grounds. It was always inevitable and obvious that Ukraine was going to lose the war, the only question was whether it was going to give up a) Crimea, b) Crimea and the Donbas republics, c) Crimea, the Donbas republics, Odessa and everything east of the Dnieper, or d) all of Ukraine.

We’re already at (c) insofar as Russia has the ability to take it and/or demand it in the terms it requires for Ukraine’s surrender. The only question is if it is necessary for Ukraine to lose another 100,000+ lives and risk (d) before accepting the inevitable. For, as Simplicius calculates the attritional math, even if Zelensky is permitted to throw the young men and women of Ukraine into the Russian abattoir, it is not going to recover one single square meter of former Ukrainian land.

Using using all the above figures, if we know that total monthly mobilization is somewhere around 15,000 to 20,000 as per several independent reports. The wording he uses is a little odd: “one and a half times less”. But if we are to assume this is the same as “one and a half times greater” than the mobilization number, then 15k and 20k multiplied by 1.5 gets us between 22.5k and 30k monthly losses. This would be 750 to 1,000 losses per day… Recently, Ukrainian journalists again reported that over 100,000 have already deserted the AFU with the number now 380 desertions per day:

In general, it’s hard to imagine the AFU surviving such attrition rates for longer than 6 months. If they are recruiting 20k but losing 30k, that means the entire armed forces is essentially losing a net 10k men per month. In only 6 months that would be 10k x 6 = 60k, which would represent roughly one major city-front area, like a Bakhmut or Avdeevka. At 12 months it would be 120k, representing an entire front-region, like Zaporozhye, or the entire Donetsk front, etc. Perhaps this is why the Pentagon has now said Ukraine only has 6-12 months of troops left?

Remember, the same sources say Russia not only breaks even, but is gaining a net positive manpower per month, building new strength and brigades. If there’s any truth to both sides of those numbers, then it would not be physically possible for the AFU to survive past 6 months or so. Please note, all the above numbers and reports I presented on the AFU are from original Ukrainian sources like the Aidar commander—no speculation whatsoever.

However, recall that Zelensky still has a final trump card, which is lowering the mobilization age to 18-20. This could immediately buy him more time, but it could also bring some kind of revolt or social uprising in the country. It’s a risky move but it would obviously give Ukraine hundreds of thousands of more men, that could buy another year or so at the most.

War = math + manufacturing + morale. And Russia clearly has the comprehensive advantage of all three. There is no scenario, no plan of intervention, no rhetorical flurry, that is capable of significantly changing that without being countered and neutralized. Therefore, any continuation of this reprehensibly stupid attempt to prevent Vladimir Putin from achieving his objectives and ending the Special Military Operation is inhumane, immoral, and objectively wicked.

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Pseudo-Escalation

From the Jerusalem Post:

  • The attack occurred in three major waves, with the second and third waves targeting Iranian drone and missile production sites, hitting over 20 targets.
  • Over 100 planes were involved in the 2000 k.m. attack, including the cutting-edge F-35, according to Walla.
  • The IDF confirmed the operation was over and that all mission goals had been achieved, with all planes returning safely home.
  • Iranian officials and media have been denying that Israeli airstrikes took place, saying explosions were a result of Iranian air defense; an Israeli official strenuously denied this to Ynet, saying, “This is a lie. Total failure – zero interceptions.”

No one tells the truth in wartime. But sending 100 planes more than 2,000 kilometers is an impressive technical feat, even though it tends to imply US involvement in refueling the planes; there are rumors that 10 US tanker aircraft were involved in supporting the strike.

What we can conclude from what little we have been told is that either a) Iran’s air defenses are less effective than Ukraine’s or b) Iran was not contesting the strikes. Given that there is a non-zero chance that at least one of the planes might have crashed without any enemy action at all, the fact that there were zero interceptions reported, zero planes shot down reported, and minimal casualties on both sides tends to suggest that this was more war kabuki meant to let Israel keep its word without actually escalating the situation.

For one reason or another, neither Israel nor Iran appear inclined to genuinely put the other’s genuine military capabilities to the test. It’s really remarkable that when no aircraft on either side dares show itself within 100 miles of the battlefield in Ukraine, that 100 Israeli warplanes should be able to fly 2,000 kilometers into Iranian airspace unmolested.

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Israel-Iran Round 3

The IDF is now bombing Iran:

Explosions have been heard across Tehran as IDF forces announce they have launched retaliatory strikes in the region. The Israeli military has said it is conducting ‘precise strikes’ on military targets in Iran in response to what it called ‘the continuous attacks from the regime in Iran against Israel’. There have been reports of at least five explosions that have rocked the city of Tehran, as well as loud blasts heard in the Damascus countryside and central region.

Do Iran’s air defense systems not work very well or are they holding them in reserve? That’s just one of many questions that spring to mind.

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An Irrelevant Ex-Empire

The UK military is totally incapable of war:

The UK military is unprepared to fight in a major conflict and would not be able to deter the enemy if a war breaks out now, British Defense Secretary John Healey has acknowledged. The British army, navy and air force have been “hollowed out” and “underfunded” during the 14 years of the Conservative Party’s rule, Healey said in his appearance on Politico’s Power Play podcast on Thursday. When the UK Labour Party came to power in July, “we expected things to be in a poor state – but the state of the finances, the state of the forces, was far worse than we thought,” he added.

The UK military failed to stop the invasion by millions of foreigners. It has no air defenses worth speaking of. It isn’t capable of stopping a violent insurrection by its resident invaders, much less anything that Russia should elect to do in response to the UK government’s fanning the flames of war in Ukraine.

Those who believed nuclear weapons meant an end to war never considered the inevitable development of anti-missile technology; the small size of the UK’s “nuclear deterrent force” means that if the Russians can’t already shoot it down with lasers and hypersonic missile defense systems – both of which are already in development – they will be able to do so soon.

The UK never had much in the war of ground forces, which were always intended to provide the balance of power on the continent. But now, with both the French and the German militaries but a shadow of their former selves, there is literally nothing to prevent Russia from accomplishing whatever it decides is in its national interest. Fortunately, and contra the neocon warmongering, none of the BRICS powers are showing any interest in following the self-destructive leads of the UK and the USA into empire.

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Please Don’t Go!

NATO is begging Türkiye to stay in NATO even if it joins BRICS:

Türkiye has the right to cooperate with the BRICS economic group without undermining its status as a NATO member, the secretary-general of the US-led military bloc, Mark Rutte, has said.

The NATO chief’s remarks came at a press conference in Estonia on Tuesday. He was asked by the Estonian Public Broadcaster whether Ankara’s desire to become a member of BRICS, which the outlet described as a “Russia-dominated organization,” should be a cause for concern.

Rutte stressed that Türkiye remains “a very important ally in the alliance” as it is “one of the best equipped military forces in NATO” and plays a “vital role in its part of the NATO geography.”

“Obviously within the alliance, being a democracy, 32 countries, there will always be debates on this and that,” the secretary-general admitted. However, he insisted that Ankara has “the sovereign right” to work towards a BRICS membership and cooperate with its members.

The real question is if BRICS will permit the Turks to join if they remain in NATO. And the jury is still out on that one.

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The Leak was Real

Apparently Israel was genuinely observed making preparations to attack Iran on October 15th and 16th, but appears to have cancelled the attack for reasons that remain unknown, but are presumably related to the “earthquake” that was observed earlier this month.

The US has launched an investigation after highly classified intelligence reports about Israel’s preparations for possible strikes on Iran were leaked online, CNN reported on Saturday, citing three people familiar with the matter. The apparent security breach occurred amid an intense standoff between Iran and Israel – which has vowed to respond to a barrage of missiles fired by Tehran earlier this month.

On Friday, two documents were posted to the anonymous Telegram channel Middle East Spectator, which covers events in the region and is critical of Israel.

The first of the files, apparently prepared by the Pentagon’s National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, says the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) “continued key munitions preparations and covert UAV activity on October 16 almost certainly for a strike on Iran.”

The second document contains a detailed report about a “large-force employment exercise” conducted by the Israeli Air Force on October 15-16.

An unnamed US official confirmed the authenticity of the documents to CNN, describing the leak as “deeply concerning.” The official told the network that the ongoing probe is aimed at determining who had access to the top secret files that eventually made their way to social media.

The plan reportedly involved a combination of ballistic missiles and air-to-surface missiles, although considerably fewer than were involved in the Iranian attack on Israel. Which, of course, tends to raise suspicions that some of them may have been armed with nuclear warheads, and may explain why the US intelligence source decided to try to stop the attack by leaking news of it.

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Trump Declares War Lost

It would have been better if he’d said this two years ago, when the inevitable outcome was already obvious. But it’s still helpful to prevent the Kiev regime trying to fight to the last Ukrainian.

Former US President Donald Trump has declared that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has already “lost” the conflict with Russia. The Republian candidate also accused President Joe Biden of ‘provoking’ the fighting in the first place.

“That war is a loser,” Trump said on the PBD Podcast, on Thursday, criticizing Zelensky as a “great salesman” who repeatedly secured billions in US aid without securing victory. Trump added that the conflict could have been avoided had he remained in charge after the 2020 election.

Trump also blamed Biden for escalating tensions with Russia, claiming that his statements ahead of the Moscow launching its miliatry operation were the “exact opposite” of what should have been said. He also expressed confidence that he could resolve the issue swiftly if returned to office in November’s vote.

I have no doubt that President Trump can quickly negotiate an end to the war. Russia has no interest in controlling Western Ukraine, they simply don’t want to permit Clown World to do so. It’s very unfortunate that Finland and Sweden have joined NATO, because that creates an issue that will require resolution before Russia can be reasonably expected to stand entirely down.

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KIA Confirmed

Hamas has confirmed yesterday’s IDF reports of the death of its leader, Yahya Sinwar:

The Palestinian militant group Hamas has acknowledged the death of its leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, praising him as a “holy warrior” and “fallen martyr.”

The announcement was made by a senior Hamas official, Khalil Hayya, in a televised address on Friday. Sinwar has “sacrificed his life to the cause of our liberation,” Hayya stated, describing the late leader of the group as a “steadfast, brave and intrepid” man.

So, if the “head of the snake” strategy works, the deaths of Sinwar, al-Arouri, Haniyah, and Sharif should bring a rapid end to Israel’s war against the Palestinians in Gaza. However, the dichotomy between the way the IDF and Hamas describe Sinwar’s death tends to cast doubt on the two sides being able to even share a similar perspective.

  • He met his end standing brave, with his head held high, holding his firearm, firing until the last breath, until the last moment of his life.
  • How Israel slaughtered the Butcher: Rookie soldiers stumbled across Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, engaged in gun battle, tracked him down as he cowered in empty building… then blasted it with a tank.

I’ve never seen the point in constantly attempting to portray the enemy as some sort of coward. A suicide bombing targeting civilians is certainly much more evil and malicious than a Medal of Honor-winning soldier heroically jumping on a grenade to save his squadmates, but is it any less courageous? I don’t think so.

A false portrayal of the enemy not only smacks of weakness, but violates Sun Tzu’s admonition to know the enemy. Which is why I think the IDF may have made another PR mistake by publicizing the video of Sinwar’s last moments. Throwing a stick at a drone might be pointless, perhaps even a bit pathetic, but it is a final act of defiance of the sort that most warriors will tend to admire. It reminds me of a poster that I wanted when I was young, which my parents wisely refused to let me buy for my bedroom.

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