Tag: war

The Math of Attrition

Regardless of whom the Script dictates “wins” the US presidential “election” on Tuesday, or whenever the results are announced after the media has finished massaging the numbers we are supposed to take seriously, the financing for the Ukrainian war effort must be stopped immediately on humanitarian grounds. It was always inevitable and obvious that Ukraine was going to lose the war, the only question was whether it was going to give up a) Crimea, b) Crimea and the Donbas republics, c) Crimea, the Donbas republics, Odessa and everything east of the Dnieper, or d) all of Ukraine.

We’re already at (c) insofar as Russia has the ability to take it and/or demand it in the terms it requires for Ukraine’s surrender. The only question is if it is necessary for Ukraine to lose another 100,000+ lives and risk (d) before accepting the inevitable. For, as Simplicius calculates the attritional math, even if Zelensky is permitted to throw the young men and women of Ukraine into the Russian abattoir, it is not going to recover one single square meter of former Ukrainian land.

Using using all the above figures, if we know that total monthly mobilization is somewhere around 15,000 to 20,000 as per several independent reports. The wording he uses is a little odd: “one and a half times less”. But if we are to assume this is the same as “one and a half times greater” than the mobilization number, then 15k and 20k multiplied by 1.5 gets us between 22.5k and 30k monthly losses. This would be 750 to 1,000 losses per day… Recently, Ukrainian journalists again reported that over 100,000 have already deserted the AFU with the number now 380 desertions per day:

In general, it’s hard to imagine the AFU surviving such attrition rates for longer than 6 months. If they are recruiting 20k but losing 30k, that means the entire armed forces is essentially losing a net 10k men per month. In only 6 months that would be 10k x 6 = 60k, which would represent roughly one major city-front area, like a Bakhmut or Avdeevka. At 12 months it would be 120k, representing an entire front-region, like Zaporozhye, or the entire Donetsk front, etc. Perhaps this is why the Pentagon has now said Ukraine only has 6-12 months of troops left?

Remember, the same sources say Russia not only breaks even, but is gaining a net positive manpower per month, building new strength and brigades. If there’s any truth to both sides of those numbers, then it would not be physically possible for the AFU to survive past 6 months or so. Please note, all the above numbers and reports I presented on the AFU are from original Ukrainian sources like the Aidar commander—no speculation whatsoever.

However, recall that Zelensky still has a final trump card, which is lowering the mobilization age to 18-20. This could immediately buy him more time, but it could also bring some kind of revolt or social uprising in the country. It’s a risky move but it would obviously give Ukraine hundreds of thousands of more men, that could buy another year or so at the most.

War = math + manufacturing + morale. And Russia clearly has the comprehensive advantage of all three. There is no scenario, no plan of intervention, no rhetorical flurry, that is capable of significantly changing that without being countered and neutralized. Therefore, any continuation of this reprehensibly stupid attempt to prevent Vladimir Putin from achieving his objectives and ending the Special Military Operation is inhumane, immoral, and objectively wicked.

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Pseudo-Escalation

From the Jerusalem Post:

  • The attack occurred in three major waves, with the second and third waves targeting Iranian drone and missile production sites, hitting over 20 targets.
  • Over 100 planes were involved in the 2000 k.m. attack, including the cutting-edge F-35, according to Walla.
  • The IDF confirmed the operation was over and that all mission goals had been achieved, with all planes returning safely home.
  • Iranian officials and media have been denying that Israeli airstrikes took place, saying explosions were a result of Iranian air defense; an Israeli official strenuously denied this to Ynet, saying, “This is a lie. Total failure – zero interceptions.”

No one tells the truth in wartime. But sending 100 planes more than 2,000 kilometers is an impressive technical feat, even though it tends to imply US involvement in refueling the planes; there are rumors that 10 US tanker aircraft were involved in supporting the strike.

What we can conclude from what little we have been told is that either a) Iran’s air defenses are less effective than Ukraine’s or b) Iran was not contesting the strikes. Given that there is a non-zero chance that at least one of the planes might have crashed without any enemy action at all, the fact that there were zero interceptions reported, zero planes shot down reported, and minimal casualties on both sides tends to suggest that this was more war kabuki meant to let Israel keep its word without actually escalating the situation.

For one reason or another, neither Israel nor Iran appear inclined to genuinely put the other’s genuine military capabilities to the test. It’s really remarkable that when no aircraft on either side dares show itself within 100 miles of the battlefield in Ukraine, that 100 Israeli warplanes should be able to fly 2,000 kilometers into Iranian airspace unmolested.

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Israel-Iran Round 3

The IDF is now bombing Iran:

Explosions have been heard across Tehran as IDF forces announce they have launched retaliatory strikes in the region. The Israeli military has said it is conducting ‘precise strikes’ on military targets in Iran in response to what it called ‘the continuous attacks from the regime in Iran against Israel’. There have been reports of at least five explosions that have rocked the city of Tehran, as well as loud blasts heard in the Damascus countryside and central region.

Do Iran’s air defense systems not work very well or are they holding them in reserve? That’s just one of many questions that spring to mind.

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An Irrelevant Ex-Empire

The UK military is totally incapable of war:

The UK military is unprepared to fight in a major conflict and would not be able to deter the enemy if a war breaks out now, British Defense Secretary John Healey has acknowledged. The British army, navy and air force have been “hollowed out” and “underfunded” during the 14 years of the Conservative Party’s rule, Healey said in his appearance on Politico’s Power Play podcast on Thursday. When the UK Labour Party came to power in July, “we expected things to be in a poor state – but the state of the finances, the state of the forces, was far worse than we thought,” he added.

The UK military failed to stop the invasion by millions of foreigners. It has no air defenses worth speaking of. It isn’t capable of stopping a violent insurrection by its resident invaders, much less anything that Russia should elect to do in response to the UK government’s fanning the flames of war in Ukraine.

Those who believed nuclear weapons meant an end to war never considered the inevitable development of anti-missile technology; the small size of the UK’s “nuclear deterrent force” means that if the Russians can’t already shoot it down with lasers and hypersonic missile defense systems – both of which are already in development – they will be able to do so soon.

The UK never had much in the war of ground forces, which were always intended to provide the balance of power on the continent. But now, with both the French and the German militaries but a shadow of their former selves, there is literally nothing to prevent Russia from accomplishing whatever it decides is in its national interest. Fortunately, and contra the neocon warmongering, none of the BRICS powers are showing any interest in following the self-destructive leads of the UK and the USA into empire.

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Please Don’t Go!

NATO is begging Türkiye to stay in NATO even if it joins BRICS:

Türkiye has the right to cooperate with the BRICS economic group without undermining its status as a NATO member, the secretary-general of the US-led military bloc, Mark Rutte, has said.

The NATO chief’s remarks came at a press conference in Estonia on Tuesday. He was asked by the Estonian Public Broadcaster whether Ankara’s desire to become a member of BRICS, which the outlet described as a “Russia-dominated organization,” should be a cause for concern.

Rutte stressed that Türkiye remains “a very important ally in the alliance” as it is “one of the best equipped military forces in NATO” and plays a “vital role in its part of the NATO geography.”

“Obviously within the alliance, being a democracy, 32 countries, there will always be debates on this and that,” the secretary-general admitted. However, he insisted that Ankara has “the sovereign right” to work towards a BRICS membership and cooperate with its members.

The real question is if BRICS will permit the Turks to join if they remain in NATO. And the jury is still out on that one.

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The Leak was Real

Apparently Israel was genuinely observed making preparations to attack Iran on October 15th and 16th, but appears to have cancelled the attack for reasons that remain unknown, but are presumably related to the “earthquake” that was observed earlier this month.

The US has launched an investigation after highly classified intelligence reports about Israel’s preparations for possible strikes on Iran were leaked online, CNN reported on Saturday, citing three people familiar with the matter. The apparent security breach occurred amid an intense standoff between Iran and Israel – which has vowed to respond to a barrage of missiles fired by Tehran earlier this month.

On Friday, two documents were posted to the anonymous Telegram channel Middle East Spectator, which covers events in the region and is critical of Israel.

The first of the files, apparently prepared by the Pentagon’s National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, says the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) “continued key munitions preparations and covert UAV activity on October 16 almost certainly for a strike on Iran.”

The second document contains a detailed report about a “large-force employment exercise” conducted by the Israeli Air Force on October 15-16.

An unnamed US official confirmed the authenticity of the documents to CNN, describing the leak as “deeply concerning.” The official told the network that the ongoing probe is aimed at determining who had access to the top secret files that eventually made their way to social media.

The plan reportedly involved a combination of ballistic missiles and air-to-surface missiles, although considerably fewer than were involved in the Iranian attack on Israel. Which, of course, tends to raise suspicions that some of them may have been armed with nuclear warheads, and may explain why the US intelligence source decided to try to stop the attack by leaking news of it.

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Trump Declares War Lost

It would have been better if he’d said this two years ago, when the inevitable outcome was already obvious. But it’s still helpful to prevent the Kiev regime trying to fight to the last Ukrainian.

Former US President Donald Trump has declared that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has already “lost” the conflict with Russia. The Republian candidate also accused President Joe Biden of ‘provoking’ the fighting in the first place.

“That war is a loser,” Trump said on the PBD Podcast, on Thursday, criticizing Zelensky as a “great salesman” who repeatedly secured billions in US aid without securing victory. Trump added that the conflict could have been avoided had he remained in charge after the 2020 election.

Trump also blamed Biden for escalating tensions with Russia, claiming that his statements ahead of the Moscow launching its miliatry operation were the “exact opposite” of what should have been said. He also expressed confidence that he could resolve the issue swiftly if returned to office in November’s vote.

I have no doubt that President Trump can quickly negotiate an end to the war. Russia has no interest in controlling Western Ukraine, they simply don’t want to permit Clown World to do so. It’s very unfortunate that Finland and Sweden have joined NATO, because that creates an issue that will require resolution before Russia can be reasonably expected to stand entirely down.

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KIA Confirmed

Hamas has confirmed yesterday’s IDF reports of the death of its leader, Yahya Sinwar:

The Palestinian militant group Hamas has acknowledged the death of its leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza, praising him as a “holy warrior” and “fallen martyr.”

The announcement was made by a senior Hamas official, Khalil Hayya, in a televised address on Friday. Sinwar has “sacrificed his life to the cause of our liberation,” Hayya stated, describing the late leader of the group as a “steadfast, brave and intrepid” man.

So, if the “head of the snake” strategy works, the deaths of Sinwar, al-Arouri, Haniyah, and Sharif should bring a rapid end to Israel’s war against the Palestinians in Gaza. However, the dichotomy between the way the IDF and Hamas describe Sinwar’s death tends to cast doubt on the two sides being able to even share a similar perspective.

  • He met his end standing brave, with his head held high, holding his firearm, firing until the last breath, until the last moment of his life.
  • How Israel slaughtered the Butcher: Rookie soldiers stumbled across Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, engaged in gun battle, tracked him down as he cowered in empty building… then blasted it with a tank.

I’ve never seen the point in constantly attempting to portray the enemy as some sort of coward. A suicide bombing targeting civilians is certainly much more evil and malicious than a Medal of Honor-winning soldier heroically jumping on a grenade to save his squadmates, but is it any less courageous? I don’t think so.

A false portrayal of the enemy not only smacks of weakness, but violates Sun Tzu’s admonition to know the enemy. Which is why I think the IDF may have made another PR mistake by publicizing the video of Sinwar’s last moments. Throwing a stick at a drone might be pointless, perhaps even a bit pathetic, but it is a final act of defiance of the sort that most warriors will tend to admire. It reminds me of a poster that I wanted when I was young, which my parents wisely refused to let me buy for my bedroom.

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The Well Runs Dry

France and Germany are throwing in the towel on Ukraine. Not all at once, of course, but the writing is clearly on the wall.

The heavyweights of Europe — France and Germany announced a reduction in funding for Ukraine. Not far from the time when The EU will also abandon anti-Russian sanctions, the observer is sure Pravda.Ru Lyubov Stepushova.

France, which promised assistance to Ukraine in the amount of 3 billion euros this year, reduced it by 1 billion, that is, by a third. This is caused by problems in the budget — its deficit for 2024 may amount to about 6% of the country’s GDP, which is unacceptable, according to EU rules. French Defense Minister Sebastian Lecorniu in an interview with Politico clarified that he does not plan to request additional funds from the parliament for Kiev by the end of this year.

Germany has also cut aid to Ukraine by half since the new year. According to German media, according to the budget for 2025, it will decrease from 7.1 billion euros this year to 4 billion euros next year.

It would be much better to make Ukraine go cold turkey and put pressure on the Kiev regime to surrender unconditionally instead of pointlessly wasting more Ukrainian lives in a futile effort to maintain a false posture that will neither fool nor impress the Russians into settling for less than they believe they require for a lasting peace. In the aftermath of the NATO expansion and Minsk betrayals, Russia is not in a hurry to reach any sort of settlement that is simply going to lead to another war in a decade when its position might be less advantageous.

The undeniable military reality is that Ukraine has to accept whatever Russia decides to demand; only then can the massive work of attempting to rebuild a smaller and less ambitious Ukrainian state begin. The other option is that Russia will simply continue its war of attrition until Kiev falls to its forces, so the sooner Kiev surrenders, the better for everyone.

1.8 million casualties, of which 780,000 are KIA since February 2022. And for what? About the only substantive accomplishment was permitting Kiev to serve as a massive short-term money-laundering center for the global elite.

The inflexion point has been reached. The Pax Americana, the neo-liberal world order, and the post-WWII era have ended. The locii of power have shifted from London and Washington to Moscow and Beijing. This is the new global reality. This is now the context in which all geopolitical and military and economic policies must be understood.

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End Game in Ukraine

It’s all but over for the Kiev regime. It’s taken Berlin 31 months to recognize the obvious, but the Germans, which means the Europeans, have finally given up on the idea of winning Clown World’s proxy war on Russia. The right thing to do would be to instruct Kiev to surrender and spare the lives of the Ukrainian soldiers whose sacrifice would be totally pointless at this point.

Germany has no more military hardware to offer Ukraine beyond what has already been pledged, even as Kiev remains hard-pressed by Russia on the front line, Bild reported on Saturday.

According to the outlet, the German Defense Ministry does not believe that Ukraine will be capable of launching “an offensive to liberate its own territory” in the near future.

The report also said, citing an internal document, that Berlin would no longer send “heavy weapons” to Ukraine, and that deliveries of this type of aid have been “completed.” The term applies to tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, self-propelled howitzers and similar hardware.

Russia obviously can, and will, grind it out until Kiev is flattened like Berlin was in 1945. But I doubt anyone who doesn’t belong to the Azov Brigade is going to be very interested in facing the increasingly capable Russian war machine, which history has repeatedly shown will continue to improve its abilities until it takes the enemy capital.

In the 19th century, the Russians took Paris. In the 20th century, the Russians took Berlin. In the 21st century, if they are forced to do so by NATO’s recalcitrance, the Russians will take Kiev, Berlin, and Paris. Fortunately, Putin understands the evils of empire and has no interest in following the disastrous lead of the British and US empires. So it would be much better for everyone if the inevitable were simply accepted, however bitterly, now instead of this time next year.

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