Tag: war

The Saker was Right

And I, quite clearly was not. I was under the impression that Russia was content to permit Ukraine to keep running its “Russia is going to attack, send us money and arms that we can sell on the black market” grift while making serious bank on the rising oil and natural gas prices as long as the globohomo governments were willing to fund it. But what I failed to account for was the active threat that was being posed by the Ukrainian forces with their constant attacks on the two Donbass republics, or the significance of the civilian evacuations there.

To his credit, the Saker saw the Russian operation coming the day before it happened.

Until the time of writing this, the Ukronazis have continued shelling and shooting, but there has been no fullscale ground attack (yet!). The Ukie special services have sent a few diversionary groups into the LDNR and even into a small strip of Russian land. These groups were detected and intercepted by the Russian Border Guards. The Ukies tried to send a BMP few infantry fighting vehicle to rescue their soliders only to have them destroyed by the Russian military’s anti-tank weapons.

Today the Ukies continued to direct their artillery attacks and diversionary groups at the LDNR. Water and electricity are off in some parts of the LDNR. People are still dying every day and there is no signs of the Ukie bombardments abating. Especially violent combats are taking place near the town of Nikolaevka.

The Ukies have also declared a state of emergency (to be approved by the Rada) and are now making more and more noises about re-arming themselves with nuclear weapons. Smart move when Putin says that the Ukraine must be disarmed… Frankly, I think that the Ukies are terrified.

I know I sure would if I was in their place.

They cannot simply retreat, there is no way Ze can order that and not be overthrown.

They cannot attack because now it is too late, all these force comparisons between the Banderastani forces and the LDNR forces have become, if not irrelevant, than at least a lot less relevant now that Putin has basically prepared both the military and the legal conditions necessary for any kind of Russian military operation, from strikes with standoff weapons, to a ground and/or amphibious assault. All he has to do now is say “go”. Judging by his tone yesterday, not only do I feel that he is willing to give that order, but I also think that he has accepted that this is the “least bad” option for Russia and the LDNR.

Again, Putin said that he fully intends to disarm the Ukraine, at least from all her heavy weapons. Since the Ukies won’t give them up, I see only one way to achieve this: disarm them by force.

So, in one way or another, I expect major combat action in the Eastern Ukraine in the next couple of days.

Keep in mind that the West’s response to Putin’s words and actions only serve to further convince Russia that 1) more sanctions and subversion is inevitable 2) violence is unavoidable.

Remember these famous words by Putin: “Fifty years ago, the streets of Leningrad taught me one thing: If a fight’s inevitable, you must strike first“?

It appears to me that the Kremlin has concluded that a violent fight is, indeed, inevitable. You figure out the rest 🙂

So where do we go from here?

I would say that major combat operations against the Ukie forces in the LDNR republics are probably inevitable and, barring some last minute miracle, the Russians will soon disarm a good part of the Ukie forces. Remember that Putin specifically added the disarmament of the Ukraine as one of his demands.

Does anybody think that anybody can stop the disarmament (we are talking about major weapon systems, not AKs) of the Ukraine by Russia in the near/middle term?

I don’t.

Next, I think that Putin will successfully impose all his demands upon the Ukraine, which means two things:

The Kiev regime will collapse, at least de facto. The rest of Banderastan will eventually break-up into different regimes and successor states.

It will remain to be seen how extensive the Russian operation – which, contra the mainstream media reports, is clearly not “a full-scale invasion” yet – turns out to be. However, I am very, very dubious that NATO, the USA, or any European government is going to send any troops to Ukraine, because that would not only guarantee the very full-scale invasion it was supposed to prevent, but increase the risk of Russia declaring war on the governments responsible.

That being said, the Saker was correct about the timing of the operation and its focus on disarming the Ukrainian forces. So, perhaps he is correct about the US/NATO being foolish enough to attempt a military intervention. Regardless, I think he is absolutely right about the threat that the Russian demonstration of force poses to the existence of NATO, and perhaps even the EU as well.

I think that there is a high probability that the US/NATO will move some forces into western Ukraine, to “protect their people and infrastructure” in and around Lvov, and to declare that “their show of unity and determination stopped Russia from invading the entire Ukraine”. I don’t think that Russia will object too much against any NATO move inside and limited to the Lvov/Ivano-Frankovsk region. These are not historically Russian lands and they are basically irrelevant to Russia.

If the US wants to Poles to oppress the Ukronazis in their own western Ukraine, nobody in Russia will care.

As for the West, to take credit for a defeat is a long US/NATO tradition, so such an operation can be used to save NATO’s face.

But that won’t be enough.

The West has already been beaten politically, and now a military defeat of some kind is probably inevitable.

I am not talking about an invasion of the entire Ukraine (God forbid!) but it will be clear to all that the Russian bear forced NATO to retreat, politically and militarily. The Anglos are too smart to volunteer for a war with Russia. The Polaks are, as always, only hiding behind the backs of their latest masters. The Balts are irrelevant.

So the only option is to fight the Russians down the the last Ukrainian and when that happens, it might not be an “NATO defeat” legally speaking, but like on 08.08.08 it will be a crushing defeat for NATO publicly. Maybe not as bad as Kabul, but much worse than Georgia in 08.08.08.

At that point, a lot of folks will be wondering if NATO is worth the money spent on. And once that process begins, there will be no stopping it.

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A Tale of Two Narratives

Russia announces a “special military operation” intended to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine:

Russia has taken out Ukraine’s air defenses and airforce with a series of precision attacks, the country’s Defense Ministry has said in a statement, after airports and runways across the country were rocked by explosions.

Officials also claimed on Thursday morning that Ukrainian border guards are not resisting advancing Russian troops, who have moved in after President Vladimir Putin signed an order to begin a “special operation” in the Donbass. At the same time, officials denied claims made by Kiev’s defense chiefs that Russia had lost at least one military plane over the country during the offensive.

In an earlier statement, Moscow reported that it was carrying out strikes at elements of Ukraine’s military infrastructure. Russia launched the offensive against Ukraine on Thursday morning on the orders of President Vladimir Putin, who said the goal of the operation was to demilitarize and “de-Nazify” Ukraine.

The Russian leader claimed military action was necessary to stop Ukrainian attacks on the two breakaway regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, which Moscow recognized as sovereign states on Monday. He claimed Russia could come under attack by Ukrainian radicals, unless their influence in the country is diminished, and accused Western nations of arming Kiev against Russia.

The Western media, on the other hand, reports a “Ukraine in flames” and a “full-scale invasion” by Russia.

War in Ukraine begins as Putin launches full-scale invasion: Missiles rain down on Kharkiv and tanks roll across border from Belarus as ‘hundreds’ of Ukrainians die, martial law is declared and five Russian jets are shot down.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has imposed martial law and defiantly urged his people to stay home after warmonger Vladimir Putin launched an invasion of Russia’s neighbour, plunging mainland Europe into its worst military crisis in decades.

In a video message published on Facebook after the Kremlin began its attacks, Zelenskyy said Moscow had carried out missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and border guards, and that explosions had been heard in many cities, in the north, south and east of the country.

Later, the President cut diplomatic ties with Russia and pleaded with Western leaders to provide large-scale defence support and to protect Ukraine’s airspace from the ‘aggressor’.

Major General Valeriy Zaluzhny, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said this morning that he had received orders from the Ukrainian President to repel Russia’s invasion by inflicting ‘maximum losses’. The Ukrainian military claim to have killed ‘50 Russian occupiers’ so far today, shooting down six Russian planes in the process.

The mere fact that the Jewish comedian at the head of the neocons’ puppet government is still in a position to impose martial law tends to indicate that the Western media narrative is false. It’s fascinating to see the difference between the way a) Russian missile strikes on Ukraine, b) Israeli missile strikes on Syria, and c) US missile strikes, well, pretty much anywhere, are reported. It’s also informative to note the restrained tone of the Russian statements in comparison with the Baghdad Bob-style statements being issued by the Ukrainians.

This doesn’t mean that Russia won’t launch a “full-scale invasion”. But a close reading of the reports does not tend to currently support the media’s “official story” and we’ll know who is telling the truth if Kiev isn’t completely occupied by Russian troops by the end of the weekend.

There is also a third narrative, as Clandestine notes that the location of the reported Russian strikes appears to be suspiciously in harmony with the location of the US bioweapon laboratories in Ukraine. But I doubt we’ll hear much about this narrative even if it is the most consistent with what’s actually happening.

Always keep in mind that the official story as reported by the media is the one thing you can be certain is not true. I’m confident it will shock the media to discover how much support Putin has across the West, especially after two years of unrestrained vaccine dictatorship on the part of the so-called liberal democracies. The media is already openly stating that “this is not just an attack on Ukraine, it is an attack on the Western liberal democracy system and the entire Free World.”

I, for one, certainly hope so. It’s long past time to end Clownworld and its unrestrained satanry.

China has already signaled its support for Putin’s protection of the Donbass republics, has blamed the situation on the USA, and is publicly encouraging everyone else to stay out of the conflict, so I very much doubt NATO forces are going to get directly involved regardless of how comprehensive the Russian operations turn out to be.

It should be noted that it is very regrettable that the Ukrainian issue has evolved so far. The US has continued its intensive containment on Russia, which finally forced Russia to try to realize its security demands in such a way. This is the outburst of the dissatisfaction of the party whose security demands have been ignored for a long time since the end of the Cold War… all sides should leave some space for Russia and Ukraine to solve the problems. Confrontation, sanctions, or even a direct battle will not help ease tensions. The flames scattered in eastern Ukraine are reminding all parties of the fact that blindly imposing pressure will only lead to an escalation of conflicts.

All sides should give Russia, Ukraine some space to resolve issue, Global Times, 23 February 2022

But no one knows precisely how this will develop, and don’t believe anyone who claims they do.

UPDATE: It appears the Ukrainian military is already running away.

Romania scrambled two F-16 Fighting Falcon jets on Thursday morning to intercept a foreign military aircraft, the country’s defense ministry has said. The intercepted target was identified as a Ukrainian Air Force Sukhoi Su-27 air superiority fighter jet. It was directed to land at a military base near the city of Bacau in eastern Romania, the statement said. The ministry said the pilot of the Ukrainian jet surrendered himself to the Romanian authorities.

UPDATE: This may mark the end of the European Union before this is all over. Putin now has the option to take the EU’s rhetoric literally. If the EU wants war with Russia, Russia is more than capable of giving it to them, and very, very few of the EU member states are even remotely interested in fighting Russia. And breaking up the EU is absolutely in Russia’s interest.

We condemn Russia’s unprecedented military aggression against Ukraine. It must withdraw its military and fully respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity. The EU leaders will discuss and swiftly adopt further restrictive measures against Russia. The EU stands with Ukraine.

EU President Ursula van der Leyen

UPDATE: Don’t expect NATO to do anything except issue strongly-worded statements to the press. As literally everyone except the neocons and their puppet government expected, the European militaries have no intention of fighting the Russian army.

“There will be no military confrontation between NATO and Russia,” – head of the German Bundestag Committee on Defense.

DISCUSS ON SG

Russia Recognizes Donbass Republics

Vladimir Putin expertly puts the ball – and any subsequent blame for future violence – in the Imperial USA’s court.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that Moscow has recognized the two self-declared breakaway Donbass republics in Ukraine’s east as sovereign nations, as a military standoff across the contact line continues to escalate.

Speaking as part of a televised address to the nation on Monday evening, Putin signed the decree, saying that “I deem it necessary to make a decision that should have been made a long time ago to immediately recognize the Donetsk (DPR) and Lugansk (LPR) People’s Republics.” Lawmakers will now be asked to consider statements of friendship and support with the two regions.

Putin clearly understands the significance of 4GW. By planting a rhetorical flag directly in the Evil Empire’s language of freedom, democracy, and self-determination, and recognizing both republics on those grounds rather than simply annexing them, Putin has ensured that Russia will hold the moral high ground in the event war breaks out in the region.

Russia has the military means to quickly and easily defeat Ukraine, but as I have pointed out since 2015, the Russians really do not want to deal with the hassle of occupation and empire. And it isn’t only Russia that will be protecting the two new sovereign nations, as I doubt it will be long before China officially recognizes them as well.

Unless the USA and the EU do likewise, their utter hypocrisy and lack of adherence to their own proclaimed principles will glow like a Fed at a patriot rally.

UPDATE: The Russian military will secure the peace in the newly independent nations. Hearts and minds.

President Vladimir Putin has ordered the Russian military to “secure the peace” in the newly recognized Donetsk and Lugansk republics, which were formerly considered to be part of Ukraine.

Moscow officially recognized the independence of the two breakaway regions on Monday.

Putin has instructed the Defense Ministry to send peacekeepers into the Donbass, while telling the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to establish diplomatic relations with the states.

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Provocations

One can’t help but notice that it is the US Navy that is invading Russia’s territorial waters, and not the other way around:

A US Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarine has been detected and chased away in Russian territorial waters off the Kuril Islands, Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Saturday.

The vessel was found submerged off the small uninhabited island of Urup while Russia’s Pacific Fleet was holding exercises in the area. Russian vessels contacted the submarine, warning it was in the country’s territorial waters and ordering it to surface immediately, the military said.

The submarine, however, did not respond to the messages, and destroyer Marshal Shaposhnikov was deployed to chase it off. The Russian vessel used “appropriate means” against the US sub, the military noted without providing any further details.

Following the run-in with the destroyer, the Virginia-class submarine used an active radar decoy, sailing away from Russian waters at full speed.

Remember, any US military action is customarily preceded by a false flag of some kind. Don’t be fooled by the mainstream media narrative.

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Empire’s End

Empires tend to end in farce. The Empire on Which the Sun Never Sets is no exception:

The UK will remove all of its troops from Ukraine amid fears that Russia could invade its neighbor, Britain’s armed forces minister, James Heappey, said on Saturday. “All of them will be withdrawn,” Heappey told BBC Radio 4’s Today show. “There will be no British troops in Ukraine if there is to be a conflict there.”

One wonders what the victors of the Crimean War would have made of such an ignominious and farcical series of maneuvers on the part of the British Armed Forces. The heir to that fallen empire, the Imperial USA, shouldn’t laugh too hard, though, after its own debacle in Afghanistan. The end of the US empire is already in sight.

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Calling Out the Evil Empire

Russia points out that Germany is an occupied state under the military occupation of the imperial USA:

The US continues to “occupy” Germany by any measure, while America’s NATO allies have surrendered all their sovereignty to Washington and aren’t allowed to have a say on issues like Nord Stream 2, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told RT in an exclusive interview on Tuesday.

Commenting on US President Joe Biden’s talk of “shutting down” the Nord Stream 2 pipeline during the visit of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to Washington on Monday, Zakharova pointed out that Berlin remains under Washington’s thumb long after the Cold War’s end.

“Germany, according to a number of relevant characteristics – this is neither mine, nor Russia’s opinion, this is according to politological terms and metrics – remains, one way or another, an occupied state: 30,000 of American [troops] are stationed there,” she told RT.

Zakharova added that “American ambassadors to Germany, who are supposed to work there to improve bilateral relations, are giving orders to German officials.” Richard Grenell, who was the US ambassador to Berlin during the Trump presidency, was “giving them orders literally every day on what to do on issues such as Nord Stream 2.”

Germany is being treated like “simply a protectorate” by the US, Zakharova said, adding that this doesn’t just take the form of financial leverage of threats, but is “backed up by 30,000 American boots on the ground.”

So, why is the US military still occupying Germany, 77 years after conquering it? The excuse of “defending West Germany from the Soviet Union” hasn’t even existed for the last three decades. It’s getting harder and harder for the New Neo-Liberal Rules-Based World Order to pretend that it isn’t the evil Empire That Never Ended, especially now that two of the largest national powers are not only resisting it, but openly calling it out.

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“A Rare and Direct Warning”

It would be difficult for China to make it any more clear what will happen if the USA continues encouraging the Taiwan island authorities to seek independence from China:

In a recent interview with US media, Chinese Ambassador to the US Qin Gang said that if the Taiwan island authority, emboldened by the US, keeps going down the road for independence, it would most likely involve China and the US “in a military conflict.” He also compared the Taiwan question to “the biggest tinderbox” between China and the US.

The ambassador’s words sent shockwaves to the US. US media believe this is a rare and direct warning from Chinese mainland to the US and Taiwan.

This was the first one-on-one interview of Qin as China’s ambassador to the US, and the audience was the Americans. The views he expressed were not only a clear signal to US political elites – he warned them not to continue to play with fire on the Taiwan question or they will face dire consequences – he also intended to let more Americans realize the seriousness of the consequences of “using Taiwan to contain the Chinese mainland” and who the real destroyer of peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits is.

The US government can appeal to democracy, the new neo-liberal rules-based world order, or Mighty Cthulhu all it likes, but there are certain geopolitical realities it is going to accept, one way or another. First, Russia is not going to permit NATO expansion or US missiles near its borders. Second, Taiwan is part of China.

Whether it has to accept those realities the hard way or not is the only question. If the neocons remain in control and remain hell-bent on war, Russia and China will give it to them. But the war is very unlikely to proceed along the nice little controlled path that the neocons have in mind.

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And Here… We… Go

NATO and the USA reject Russia’s perfectly reasonable demands:

NATO has said it “will not compromise” on potential expansion into Ukraine, Georgia, and other former Soviet republics, as this clashes with the “core principles” of the alliance, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters on Wednesday.

Moscow proposed eight points in the draft, and expected a detailed reply to each one.

The US was asked to stop any further NATO expansion to the east, halt military programs in non-member countries that were formerly part of the Soviet Union – and pledge Ukraine and Georgia would “never” join the bloc – remove its nuclear weapons from Europe, and not deploy any offensive weapons capable of targeting Russia along its borders. Moscow demanded legally binding guarantees on all of those matters.

The alliance’s response, which Stoltenberg said all 30 members agreed upon, was delivered to Moscow earlier in the day by the US ambassador, alongside Washington’s separate written note.

The US has asked Russia to keep the contents of its response private.

The great accomplishment of the Trump administration was to avoid war with Russia, which was looking very likely in 2015 after Hillary Clinton made it clear that she intended to invite both Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO.

The difference is that now Russia – and China – have had an additional seven years to prepare for war with the New Neo-Liberal Rules-Based World Order, and they have no shortage of additional motivation for it.

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Diversifying Ukraine

It’s really remarkable to see the globalist governments of the New Neo-Liberal Rules-Based World Order going crazy over the possibility of a few hundred thousand “New Ukrainians” going in search of a better life for themselves and their families in Ukraine. I mean, isn’t diversity Ukraine’s strength?

If they didn’t have any problem with 80 million foreigners colonizing the United States, why do they get so bent out of shape concerning much smaller waves of immigration into places like Ukraine or Taiwan Island.

If they want to truly defang the globalist rhetoric, all Putin and Xi have to do is announce that they are sponsoring emigration programs for young men who are going abroad in search of better economic prospects. These programs will be good for both the Ukrainian and Taiwanese economies, so how can anyone possibly object to them?

Putin isn’t “invading” or “subjecting” or “colonizing” Ukraine. He’s simply contemplating the possibility of diversifying and strengthening it.

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