Tag: war

The Iranian Expedition

It appears Trump decided to bend the knee to Clown World in the end. Every empire seems to end this way, with imperial overstretch. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Pax Americana is going the way of its predecessors.

It’s disappointing, but after the vaxx debacle and the failure to cross the Rubicon, hardly surprising.

This is yet another betrayal of the American people by yet another president who clearly does not have its national interests in mind. Even if it initially looks as if things are going well for this course of action, well, Iraq and Afghanistan looked pretty good too… at first.

Trump turning neoclown also implies that the USA will renew its military and financial support for Ukraine.

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Why Pakistan Backs Iran

Despite launching attacks on each other in 2024, Iran and Pakistan have found common ground against Israel for a very good reason: Israel has attacked both countries since May 2025:

It was only early last year that Iran launched missile and drone strikes into Pakistan’s Balochistan region on 16 January, targeting extremist militant group Jaish al-Adl positions. Pakistan retaliated two days later on 18 January, conducting air and missile strikes into Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province in an operation dubbed Marg Bar Sarmachar. The tit-for-tat was remarkably friendly in the final analysis, and appears to have settled some critical border cooperation issues between the two states.

The fact that these former adversaries – who had just engaged in direct military exchanges – have now adopted “resolute solidarity” is nothing short of breathtaking.

Beijing’s embrace of Iran is grounded in energy security and strategic depth instead. Its ambitious, multi-trillion dollar Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aimed at linking the Eurasian landmass hinges on the stability of Tehran and Islamabad, with the Gwadar and Chahbahar ports forming key arteries in China’s westward expansion. China also supplies J-10 fighter jets and HQ‑9 air‑defense systems to Pakistan, which played key roles in the extraordinary May 2025 skirmish between India and Pakistan – marking major testing ground for Chinese weapons. A parallel circumstance is present in Iran. China must acknowledge Iran because it is a crucial supporter of China’s energy needs and trade operations.

“The enemy of my friend is my enemy” may well define the new tripartite logic binding Iran, Pakistan, and China in resistance to Israeli and western designs.

Tel Aviv’s recent strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure mark a new phase in a decades-long western strategy aimed at dismantling Muslim powers resistant to colonial domination. Iraq, Syria, Libya – all were destabilized under similar pretexts. The 2001 plot, conceived by the US, its European allies, and Israel, has entered its second phase, targeting Iran initially and Pakistan subsequently. In a 2011 interview with Channel 2, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu laid bare the logic: Iran and Pakistan are the primary targets of this containment strategy, he stated blankly. “These radical regimes … pose a significant threat,” he said, stressing the need to prevent them from acquiring nuclear capability.

But recent Israeli provocations have instead triggered multipolar resistance to those plans. Speaking to The Cradle, Abdullah Khan of the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) reveals that Israeli drone operators had recently attempted to sabotage Pakistan’s nuclear facilities during the India–Pakistan crisis:

“Israeli drone operators were stationed in Indian operation rooms during the recent Pakistan–India conflict, trying to target Pakistan’s nuclear facilities. However, prompt action from Pakistan thwarted their efforts, preventing them from causing any damage to the nuclear assets of Pakistan.”

I don’t know if it is hubris or desperation, but at this point, it wouldn’t be a big surprise if Israel attacked China for one reason or another. China, after all, is the primary threat to Clown World.

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Turkey is Next

Simplicius explains why the world is increasingly supportive of Iran and disinclined to permit Israel anything that looks like a victory against Iran:

Israeli figures and media are already salivating at the prospect of what’s next after Iran, with various posts about Qatar, Turkey, and Pakistan all being lined up for disarmament and dismantling. Israel likewise continues begging Trump to ‘finish the job’ as if the plan all along was merely for Israel to “open up” the gates for US firepower.

And of course, that is the case—Israel never had the endurance to go twelve full rounds with Iran, and the hope was always that US would step in, which is why everything now depends on Trump and his tiny cohort of string-pullers.

But again, judging by Araghchi’s defiance, Iran does not seem in a particular hurry to genuflect to the Empire. This can only mean that Iran likes its chances, and may not have suffered as much attrition thus far as claimed.

It’s been interesting to observe that Iran has not availed itself of as much help from Russia as the Russians were willing to offer. This may have been nothing more than the usual susceptibility to Clown World’s temptations and promises, or it might be more indicative of an unwillingness to play the junior partner. It’s also possible that Iran prefers to rely upon China as its primary defense partner, especially in light of the new rail link shipping Iranian oil there.

Regardless, it’s now clear that as long as Team Netanyahu and the other fanatics are in charge of Israel, Israeli success will never lead to peace of any kind. And at this point, it would appear to be preemptive self-defense if Turkey and Pakistan were to enter the war against Israel, given the stated imperialist objectives of the current Israeli regime. And the decades-long accusations about Iran’s expansionary inclinations and general insanity are starting to look more and more like emotional projection by the Israelis.

If President Trump does attack Iran, it will be the biggest mistake of his life and he will lose the greater part of his support even before he loses the war. He will certainly lose mine. Remember, there are no guarantees that the US+Israel can defeat Iran alone. And it is all but certain that the two “greatest allies” cannot defeat a broad alliance of Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Russia, and China.

There are far too many possibilities to make any substantive predictions or attempt to estimate probabilities, but I will say that if the US wages war on Iran and Iran’s prospective allies follow suit, the probabilities would favor an eventual military defeat, and among the possibilities would include a) the complete destruction of Israel and b) the collapse of the USA as a singular political entity.

If I were Trump, I would follow George Bush the Younger’s example, declare Mission Accomplished regardless of the realities of the situation, and allow the Israel-Iran conflict to gradually return to its previous low-simmering hostilities. The fact that no ground invasion of either side is currently possible renders that the optimal outcome under the current circumstances.

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Winning

Another piece of evidence concerning the current state of the Israeli-Iranian war:

Foreign photographers will no longer be allowed to film at the scenes of missile strikes in Israel without prior written approval from military censors, under new directives issued by National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Communications Minister Shlomo Karhi.

The move, which targets major international outlets such as Al Jazeera, CNN, and The New York Times, empowers the Israel Police, the Government Press Office (GPO), and the military censor to enforce stricter controls on foreign reporting of war-related damage inside Israel. According to the directive, enforcement will apply regardless of the media outlet for which the footage is being filmed.

There’s nothing inherently wrong with wartime censorship. But it’s not exactly consistent with the claims of air supremacy over Tehran, the ineffectiveness of Iranian missile strikes, or confidence in the situation either.

One hopes this is a sign that the Israeli government has given up its hopes of starting a war that the USA would finish, but it’s far too soon to tell anything at all. Personally, I continue to be skeptical that any conclusive result can be even potentially obtained by either side, given that it is geographically limited to being an airpower war.

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US Democracy Isn’t Real

Isn’t it remarkable how, dating back to 1914 at the very latest, Americans keep voting for peace and yet somehow find themselves repeatedly enmeshed in funding and fighting foreign wars?

Rachel Blevins: The American people, we keep voting for the guy who is telling us “hey no new wars, we’re going to end the endless wars” right? We’re going to put an end to what has essentially been US foreign policy as we know it, and then not only do they never do it, but we have this growing multipolar world…

COL Macgregor: Americans have to come to the realization that this dichotomy, Democrats and Republicans, is meaningless. We’re really dealing with a uni-party. We’re dealing with an entirely corrupted, dysfunctional system. This thing that we call democracy in the United States is a scam, it’s not real, it’s just not real. When Louis the 16th was crowned King of France, people in the streets in Paris and other cities said “Long live the 16th… as long as the price of bread doesn’t rise.” And in 1789 there was a revolution because the French people in Paris could not afford to buy bread. It spread like wildfire across France. Now pick a commodity, whatever you want in the United States. Pick any place in the United States, and you’ve got a very similar situation right now.

He’s right. I pointed this out back in 2004, and probably even earlier, when I wrote about the bifactional ruling party. I didn’t realize that it was simply the elected face of AIPAC back then, but it was entirely obvious that a) it was a single party with common goals and b) those common goals were antithetical to both American interests and the expressed will of the American people.

So, however painful it might be, in the long run it would probably benefit the American people if the Trump adminstration were to do the will of AIPAC and Prime Minister Netanyahu and embark upon its now-expected Iranian Expedition. Because the nation isn’t going to be freed until the empire falls.

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No Victory Without Nukes

The latest mainstream Narrative is that neither Israel nor the USA can destroy Iranian nuclear program without using nukes:

Donald Trump told defence officials it would only make sense for the U.S. to join Israel in striking Iran if its ‘bunker buster’ bombs are guaranteed to be able to destroy the key enrichment site at Fordow, according to people familiar with the discussions.

Officials were said to have been told that the U.S. would have to soften the ground with conventional bombs before dropping a tactical nuclear weapon from a B2 Bomber to completely destroy the site, believed to be some 90 metres underground.

But Trump is said to have ruled out nuking Iran, insiders told the Guardian. The possibility was said not to have been raised by defence secretary Pete Hegseth or chairman of the joint chiefs of staff General Dan Caine during recent meetings in the Situation Room.

Trump said late on Thursday that he will now decide in the next two weeks whether to join in military action against Iran, before British and European diplomats were to meet with Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva on Friday.

So they just figured this out now? That seems… unlikely, especially since a number of people, including Col. Macgregor, have been saying that the Iranian program couldn’t be destroyed by conventional means since before the current conflict began.

And now we’re suddenly seeing reports of 30,000 Israelis fleeing to Cyprus and stringent new laws banning the filming of missile strikes. Which, nearly one week in, would appear to suggest that the decapitation strike was no more successful for Israel than it was for Russia back in 2022. But while the attritional math favored Russia in that conflict, it would appear to favor Iran in this one.

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So Tiresome

Iran hit an Israeli hospital and in an astonishing demonstration of zero self-awareness, the Israelis are calling it a war crime.

Israel’s deputy foreign minister Sharren Haskel called Iran’s strike on an Israeli hospital on Thursday ‘deliberate’ and ‘criminal’, after the Islamic republic fired its latest salvo of missiles at the country.

Sharren Haskel wrote on X:

Iran just hit Soroka Hospital in Be’er Sheva with a ballistic missile. Not a military base. A hospital. This is the main medical center for Israel’s entire Negev region. Deliberate. Criminal. Civilian target. The world must speak out.

The accusation would perhaps be more meaningful if the IDF hadn’t been recently, and systematically, bombing hospitals and churches in Gaza.

Meanwhile, the Israelis have bombed the Arak nuclear facility in Iran. Which means, of course, that the Iranians will probably hit the Israeli equivalent, if they haven’t already, thereby risking a Chernobyl-style situation in both countries.

I’ve never understood the reliable failure of governments to grasp the basic concept of tit-for-tat, especially in wartime. And if the USA gets directly involved on Israel’s behalf, can we we really be surprised if Russia, or China, elects to do the same for their Iranian ally?

Sources are saying the British, with Zelensky, intend to use an old soviet missile to sink an American ship to blame Russia and instigate Article 5. I am hearing similar rumors about this in the Middle East by the Neocons to claim Iran attacked the US.

One guess as to which ship…

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Why the USA is Under Pressure

If the talking heads are to be believed, Iran is on the brink of surrender and Israel is all but unscathed. But the world press is skeptical and not even the Wall Street Journal is convinced.

Despite claiming major successes against Iran’s military infrastructure, Israel is rapidly depleting its supply of long-range missile interceptors, raising alarm over the sustainability of its defence systems, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a US official familiar with allied intelligence assessments.

The report came amid relentless missile exchanges between Israel and Iran. Since Israel launched Operation Rising Lion last Friday, Iranian forces have fired roughly 400 ballistic missiles — part of an estimated arsenal of 2,000 capable of reaching Israeli territory. Israeli defences, particularly the Arrow system designed to intercept high-altitude ballistic missiles, have managed to neutralise most incoming projectiles, but not without significant strain.

Officials in Tel Aviv told WSJ that one-third of Iran’s missile launchers have been destroyed and claim to have achieved air superiority over Iranian skies. Still, intelligence sources warned that over half of Iran’s missile inventory remains intact, with a portion likely concealed in underground facilities.

The cost of maintaining Israel’s layered missile defence — comprising the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, the Arrow system, and US-supplied Patriots and THAAD batteries — is becoming a critical concern. Israeli financial daily The Marker estimated that nightly missile defence operations are costing up to 1 billion shekels ($285 million). The Arrow system alone fires interceptors priced at $3 million each.

With Iranian missile barrages continuing almost daily, Israeli air defence stockpiles are now under severe pressure. Without rapid resupply from the United States or direct intervention, Israel can maintain its missile defence for 10 or 12 more days if Iran maintains a steady tempo of attacks, a source briefed on US and Israeli intelligence told WSJ. “The system is already overwhelmed. Soon, they may have to choose which missiles to intercept,” the source said.

That strain is beginning to show. On Friday night, Iranian missiles evaded Israel’s defences and struck near the IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv. On Sunday, a direct hit forced the shutdown of a major oil refinery near Haifa. And on Tuesday morning, verified social media videos captured multiple Iranian missile impacts close to Israel’s intelligence compound north of Tel Aviv.

The truth is being obscured by both sides, which is why it’s foolish to try to make any determinations on the basis of the very censored information that is being released by the various military PR agencies. Given that the Israeli/US strategy is based on a combination of airpower and special ops, a combination that has never been particularly successful and has proven all but useless on the modern battlefield in Ukraine, I’m skeptical that it can be successful even if the USA does go in heavily as anticipated.

Also, Steve Bannon is wrong. MAGA will never get behind Trump’s Israel First policy.

Steve Bannon dramatically predicted that Donald Trump’s supporters will rally behind the president if he decides to blow up Iran’s mountain nuclear base.

It’s a massive flip from Trump’s former chief strategist who has in the past been adamantly opposed to strikes against Iran. Bannon said that the MAGA movement will stand by Trump – even if they might not be fully on board with the idea of the U.S. backing Israel ‘s attacks on Iran.

‘If President Trump decides there’s not a diplomatic alternative… because he’s been consistent, no nuclear weapon,’ Bannon said during a Christian Science Monitor event on Wednesday.

He continued: ‘The vast majority of the MAGA movement will say, ‘look, we trust your judgment, you walked us through this… Maybe we hate it but, you know, we’ll get on board.”

No foreign wars, period. We’re rapidly approaching what looks like the USA’s late imperial Sicilian Expedition.

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The War Drums Get Louder

The mainstream media is entirely convinced that President Trump is going to break his promises to the American people and go to war for the benefit of what would appear to be his Israeli masters:

U.S. officials have indicated that Iran has 24 to 48 hours to surrender and save itself from an American military onslaught as President Trump considers joining Israel’s war. White House officials said the next two days will be critical in determining whether Washington and Tehran can find a diplomatic solution to the burgeoning crisis in the Middle East.

Earlier yesterday Trump posted on Truth Social that he knew where Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei is hiding but would not launch a strike ‘yet’. He then added ‘UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER’!. Israeli officials have also cryptically promised a ‘surprise’ on Thursday night similar to its pager attack on Hezbollah leadership.

As Trump met with advisors in the White House Situation Room on Tuesday, insiders told ABC News that the President has grown frustrated by Iran’s manner of response since Israel began bombing on Friday.

The President will also not want the situation to develop to a point where it appears Iran has called his bluff, the outlet reports.

Why would Iran surrender unconditionally after a few days of light bombing when the Kiev regime hasn’t done so after three straight years of relentless defeat and destruction?

And why is the USA so blustering while Russia and China are almost entirely silent. Something doesn’t add up here.

For example, what if Russia adopts Israel’s strategy of war via assassination and applies it to the member states of the European Union? It could enact similar regime change in Germany, France, Poland, and the UK overnight.

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There is No “We”, Kemosabe

A lot of talk. We’ll see how much of it is real and how much of it is of the “Russia is out of ammunition and Putin died of cancer two weeks ago while the Ghost of Kiev was shooting down the entire Russian air force” soon enough.

It does seem strange that all that good ol’ American stuff would work so much better in the Middle East than it does in Eastern Europe or on the subcontinent.

Donald Trump was elected to put America first and keep the USA out of neocon wars. It doesn’t matter what he says or how he postures, no actual American is going to support war in the Middle East, Ukraine, or the South China Sea.

UPDATE: Clown World is really pulling out all the stops to get their world war.

Iran’s former President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, along with his wife and two sons, were assassinated by masked gunmen in central Tehran earlier today.

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