Tag: war

Catalonia to declare independence

Apparently the combination of Spain’s actions and the EU’s statements have pushed the Catalan separatists over the edge:

Catalonia will move on Monday to declare independence from Spain after holding a banned referendum, pushing the European Union nation toward a rupture that threatens the foundations of its young democracy.

Catalan President Carles Puigdemont said he favored mediation to find a way out of the crisis but that Spain’s central government had rejected this. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s government responded by calling on Catalonia to “return to the path of law” first before any negotiations.

Mireia Boya, a Catalan lawmaker from the pro-independence Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) party, said a declaration of independence would follow a parliamentary session on Monday to evaluate the results of the Oct. 1 vote to break away.

“We know that there may be disbarments, arrests … But we are prepared, and in no case will it be stopped,” she said on Twitter.

To paraphrase Ben Franklin, you can declare your independence, but can you keep it? It will be informative to see what lengths Spain is willing to go to keep Catalonia, and what the EU is willing to permit Spain to do.

But, as we know from our study of socionomics, the breakup of both Spain and the EU are inevitable. The pendulum is just beginning to swing back from its credit boom heights.

When losing, lose harder

Having failed to learn from the failure of its initial show of force, Spain appears to be intent on losing the moral level of war and is doubling down.

Defense Tuesday ordered the sending of the Army to Catalonia with material and to provide logistical support to the Civil Guard and the National Police . 

This should end well and totally convince the Catalonians that they really, truly are better off as part of Spain. I doubt it escapes anyone’s attention that the Spanish government has shown itself completely unwilling to use its Army against the marauding immigrants invading the country.

20+ dead in Vegas shootings

Automatic fire at a country music festival near Mandalay Bay Hotel. Multiple shooters reported and five hotels on lockdown. Attack happened while Jason Aldean was playing. Video of the first two minutes of the attack.

Confirmed reports of 50+ dead, 200+ injured. The clattering sounded like AK-47s on full auto.

No reports yet on whether it is Muslims, Black Lives Matter, or someone else. But it looks like Religion of Peace. ISIS featured the Las Vegas Strip in a video four months ago.

UPDATE: Las Vegas sheriff confirms 20+ dead.

UPDATE: Some of the witnesses are saying the shooters were Mexicans, not Muslim Arabs, and they threatened the crowd before the shooting. The competence and body count is in line with that suggestion.

UPDATE: Possible suspect: Geary Danley from Fayetteville, Arkansas​. He is married to Marilou Danley. Geary is a fan of the The Rachel Maddow Show​ and liked several pages on Facebook​ including Thank You Obama, Anti-Trump Army, Progressive Day, Organizing for Action, Not My President, Proud to Be A Democrat, Fight Trump, Boycott All Things Trump, and Impeach Trump.

UPDATE: The Las Vegas Police Department said the suspected gunman, who was believed to be a local resident, was on 32nd floor of Mandalay Bay hotel. Police responded to the scene, engaged him and he is now dead. Law enforcement officials identified the suspect as 64-year-old Stephen Paddock.

What losing the moral level looks like

Spain is losing the moral level of war in Catalonia. Badly. The Spanish can cry “the vote is illegal” all they like, but the Spanish government can no longer pretend to have democratic legitimacy in Catalonia or to be anything but an imperialist state governing an unwilling people by force. The vote is no longer even necessary at this point; world opinion is actively turning against Spain. Had Spain encouraged the vote and offered incentives for a No vote, it might well have won. But by fighting against it and resorting to violence – even well-restrained violence of the sort it has utilized thus far – it has significantly increased the likelihood that Catalans will vote for independence.

AP BREAKING: Catalonia referendum: Spanish police fire rubber projectiles at protesters outside Barcelona voting center.

The Catalan regional government may well be a collection of economically ignorant fools. Democracy and rule by the will of the people may well be an illusion. But people have the right to be fools and billions of people believe in the idea that the reason their governments are legitimate is due to their foundation of democracy. A government punctures that illusion at its own risk. Remember, “the law” does not actually exist in any material sense. It is merely a collective agreement, which ceases to exist when a sufficient number of people unilaterally withdraw from it.

Catalonian update

Spain is pulling out all the stops to shut down the Catalonian vote on independence. To save democracy, one presumes.

CATALONIA REFERENDUM LATEST: Madrid pulls out all the stops to block independence vote

SPAIN has launched an all-out assault on the Catalan government with Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, the prosecutor’s office and the judiciary all making moves to block a binding referendum on independence on October 1.

An unprecedented combination of legal action, police deployments and economic sanctions are disrupting the effort to hold the vote which has been declared illegal by Spain’s Constitutional Court.

Police have been sent to hunt down ballot papers and materials related to the referendum, while media organisations have been warned not to broadcast official Catalan campaign advertisements related to the vote. More than a hundred websites related to the referendum have already been shut down by the authorities.

Madrid has also essentially taken over the regional executive’s finances to ensure that “not a single euro” is spent on the ballot. Banks have been ordered not to allow money transfers from Catalan government accounts without Madrid’s consent.

Catalonia’s High Court is investigating the entire Catalan Cabinet led by regional President Carles Puigdemont — as well as five regional lawmakers — on charges of disobedience, prevarication, and misuse of public funds.

Sounds legit. Clearly Madrid has the moral high ground here. After all, the Constitutional Court has spoken!

 Remember when the USA went to war so that purple-fingered Iraqis could vote? Why, I’m starting to wonder if the neo-liberal world order is not actually founded on the principles of self-determination and democracy after all!

THERE WILL BE WAR Volume VII

THERE WILL BE WAR is a landmark science fiction anthology series that combines top-notch military science fiction with factual essays by various generals and military experts on everything from High Frontier and the Strategic Defense Initiative to the aftermath of the Vietnam War. It featured some of the greatest military science fiction ever published, such Orson Scott Card’s “Ender’s Game” in Volume I, Joel Rosenberg’s “Cincinnatus” in Volume II, and Arthur C. Clarke’s “Hide and Seek” in Volume III . Many science fiction greats were featured in the original nine-volume series, which ran from 1982 to 1990, including Robert Heinlein, Arthur C. Clarke, Philip K. Dick, Gordon Dickson, Poul Anderson, John Brunner, Gregory Benford, Robert Silverberg, Harry Turtledove, and Ben Bova.

33 years later, Castalia House has joined with Dr. Jerry Pournelle to make this classic science fiction series available to the public again. THERE WILL BE WAR is a treasure trove of science fiction and history that will educate and amaze new readers while reminding old ones how much the world has changed over the last three decades. Most of the stories, like war itself, remain entirely relevant today.

THERE WILL BE WAR Volume VII is edited by Jerry Pournelle and John F. Carr, and features 20 stories, articles, and poems. Of particular note are “The Tank Lords” by David Drake, “Test for Tyrants” by Edward P. Hughes, “The Last Article” by Harry Turtledove, “Remember the Alamo” by T.R. Fehrenbach, and “Consequences” by Walter Jon Williams.

It was Jerry’s wish to not only revive the series, but bring all of the old editions back in print so they could be read by the two generations of younger readers who only had access to the old ones through used bookstores. It’s one of my regrets that Jerry did not live to see Castalia House get the entire series back into print, but I take some solace in the fact that he did see us get most of them out again and he knew we would complete the task with which he charged us.

With today’s release of Volume VII, we have only one to go to finish the series, and we anticipate doing so in October.

US-Russia conflict in Syria

This doesn’t strike me as a positive development. The Saker contemplates the significance of a Russian special forces operation in Syria.

Something rather unprecedented just happened in Syria: US backed “good terrorist” forces attempted a surprise attack against Syrian government forces stationed to the north and northeast of the city of Hama. What makes this attack unique is that it took place inside a so-called “de-escalation zone” and that it appears that one of the key goals of the attack was to encircle in a pincer-movement and subsequently capture a platoon of Russian military police officers deployed to monitor and enforce the special status of this zone. The Russian military police forces, composed mainly of soldiers from the Caucasus region, fought against a much larger enemy force and had to call for assistance. For the first time, at least officially, Russian special operations forces were deployed to rescue and extract their comrades. At the same time, the Russians sent in a number of close air support aircraft who reportedly killed several hundred “good” terrorists and beat back the attack (Russian sources speak of the destruction of 850 fighters, 11 tanks, three infantry fighting vehicles, 46 armed pickup trucks, five mortars, 20 freighter trucks and 38 ammo supply points; you can see photos of the destroyed personnel and equipment here). What also makes this event unique is the official reaction of the Russians to this event.

Head of the Main Operations Department at Russia’s General Staff Colonel General Sergei Rudskoi declared that:

“Despite agreements signed in Astana on September 15, gunmen of Jabhat al-Nusra and joining them units that don’t want to comply with the cessation of hostilities terms, launched a large-scale offensive against positions of government troops north and northeast of Hama in Idlib de-escalation zone from 8 am on September 19 (…) According to available data, the offensive was initiated by American intelligence services to stop a successful advance of government troops east of Deir ez-Zor“.

Today, other Russian officials have added a not-so-veiled threat to this accusation. The Russian Defense Ministry’s spokesman, Major General Igor Konashenkov has declared that:

Russia unequivocally told the commanders of US forces in Al Udeid Airbase (Qatar) that it will not tolerate any shelling from the areas where the SDF are stationed (…) Fire from positions in regions [controlled by the SDF] will be suppressed by all means necessary.

This is unprecedented on many levels. First, the Russians clearly believe that this attempt to kill or capture a platoon of the Russian military police was planned by the United States. The fact that they are making this accusation officially shows the degree of irritation felt by the Russians about the duplicity of the Americans. Second, this is the first time, at least to my knowledge, that Russian Spetsnaz forces had to be sent in to rescue a surrounded Russian subunit. All Spetsnaz operators survived, but three of them were wounded in the operation (the Russians are not saying how badly). The close air support by very low flying SU-25 aircraft was obviously coordinated by Spetsnaz forward air controllers and probably saved the day. In other words, this was a close call and things could have ended much more badly (just imagine what the Takfiri crazies would have done, on video, to any captured Russian serviceman!). Finally, a US-organized attack on what was supposed to be a “de-confliction” zone combined with an attempt to capture Russian soldiers raises the bar for American duplicity to a totally new level.

It’s time to get US troops out of Iraq and Syria. Iran and Russia succeeded where the US failed, and now the US presence there is only likely to lead to trouble that the Trump administration cannot afford in light of the Korean situation.

Always focus on fighting on one front at a time unless one has absolutely no ability to avoid it. To do otherwise is not merely foolish, but risks disaster.

Civil resistance in Catalonia

The Spanish government’s attempt to send in the Guardia Civil is being resisted by Catalonian dockworkers as well as the regional government.

More than 4,000 members of Spain’s Guardia Civil are being dispatched to the troubled region amid concerns over divided loyalties in the autonomous community’s own police force, the Mossos d’ Esquadra. Spanish authorities wanted to house the Guardia Civil officers on four cruise ships – two in Barcelona, one in Tarragona and another in Palamos.

But as thousands took to the streets to protest against the detention of Catalan officials, local dock workers joined the backlash. The Assembly of Stevedores of the Port of Barcelona announced that workers would not provide any services to boats carrying security forces, a decision it said was taken “in defence of civil rights”.

Colleagues in Tarragona quickly followed suit and the Catalan government then denied permission to dock in Palamos – which, unlike Barcelona and Tarragona, falls under regional rather than national control.

The moves to disrupt the deployment comes amid seething anger in Catalonia over the arrests of 14 people, most of them high ranking Catalan officials, during preparations for a referendum that has been declared illegal by Spain’s constitutional court.

Dramatic scenes unfolded across Barcelona and other Catalan towns as the Guardia Civil mounted 41 raids targeting government and presidential departments, as well as warehouses containing election material.

Regardless of the rights and wrongs and legalities of the matter that have been debated here over the past few days, it is apparent that the Catalonian secessionists are currently winning at the moral level of war despite the relative restraint of the Spanish government. This would suggest that they will continue to gain support from previously neutral parts, within and without Catalonia.

Why Japan will go nuclear

Peter Grant explains the logic. First, he cites George Friedman on why the Trump administration has been unable to do anything about North Korea despite its efforts to bring in China on the matter:

The US turned to China to negotiate a solution. The Chinese failed. In my view, the Chinese would not be terribly upset to see the US dragged into a war that would weaken Washington if it lost, and would cause massive casualties on all sides if it won. Leaving that question aside, the North Koreans felt they had to have nuclear weapons to deter American steps to destabilize Pyongyang. But the risk of an American attack, however difficult, had to have made them very nervous, even if they were going to go for broke in developing a nuclear capability.

But they didn’t seem very nervous. They seemed to be acting as if they had no fear of a war breaking out. It wasn’t just the many photos of Kim Jong Un smiling that gave this impression. It was that the North Koreans moved forward with their program regardless of American and possible Chinese pressure.

A couple of weeks ago, the reason for their confidence became evident. First, US President Donald Trump tweeted a message to the South Koreans accusing them of appeasement. In response, the South Koreans released a statement saying South Korea’s top interest was to ensure that it would never again experience the devastation it endured during the Korean War. From South Korea’s perspective, artillery fire exchanges that might hit Seoul had to be avoided. Given the choice between a major war to end the North’s nuclear program and accepting a North Korea armed with nuclear weapons, South Korea would choose the latter.

With that policy made public, and Trump’s criticism of it on the table, the entire game changed its form. The situation had been viewed as a two-player game, with North Korea rushing to build a deterrent, and the US looking for the right moment to attack. But it was actually a three-player game, in which the major dispute was between South Korea and the United States.

It doesn’t matter if China is on board if South Korea is not. Hence Peter’s conclusion:

This explains, to my mind, why the US response to North Korea’s undoubtedly aggressive moves has been so muted.  There is no doubt that the USA could turn the whole of North Korea into a radioactive desert – but that would poison parts of China and most of South Korea with fallout, which neither country will accept.  Short of such an all-out nuclear attack, any US military intervention in North Korea must inevitably involve South Korea.  If South Korea is not willing to permit its territory, or its airspace, or its waters, to be used for that purpose, the USA is effectively stymied.

I see only one way to break the logjam, and force the issue.  That would be for the USA to announce that, in view of North Korea’s aggressive actions and stated intentions to become a nuclear power, it is willing to sell nuclear weapons to Japan and South Korea.  Note that I said “sell” – in other words, not station US nuclear weapons in those countries under US control, but give each country its own nuclear warheads and delivery systems, under its own sovereign control.  China would instantly have kittens – a nuclear-armed Japan must be close to its worst nightmare, and a nuclear South Korea wouldn’t be far behind that.  If anything could force China to rein in the North Korean regime, that might do it.

And the reality is that now it is clear North Korea cannot be reined in by the USA, Japan is going to need its own nuclear deterrent, which it probably required anyhow given the growth of China’s global power. SJWs and Republicans may believe Asians are all a single political bloc, but anyone familiar with Asian history knows otherwise.

Ethnic cleansing in Chicago

Chicago is going the way of Compton:

New census statistics show the Hispanic population grew by 17,000 in a one-year period. For the first time, Hispanics are the second-largest racial group in the city. Meanwhile, the African-American population is shrinking, with 42,000 moving out.

In Little Village, it’s not hard to spot the influence and heritage. At Dulcelandia, a candy store, sales and the number of customers have increased since the business opened in 1995. This would seem to reflect new U.S. Census data showing the Hispanic population in Chicago jumping from 786,000 to 803,000 between 2015 and 2016.

This means about 30 percent of the Windy City’s population is now of Hispanic or Latino descent.

In another decade, Chicago will be majority Hispanic/Latino. Americans can posture and preen about racial and ethnic equality all they like. But identity politics are rapidly replacing ideology politics, just as new ethnicities are rapidly replacing America’s blacks and whites alike. The pattern is pretty straightforward: blacks chase whites in order to live in white-dominated societies. Then the more ruthless Hispanics and Asians move in to the white-abandoned locations to chase the blacks out. It’s all fun and games until the whites run out of places to retreat.

This isn’t going to end well. Sooner or later, the 100-year retreat is going to end. The only question is whether it will end in a manner more akin to South Africa and Rhodesia or Yugoslavia. I tend to suspect the latter, but I could be wrong. White Americans aren’t showing any more fight than the white South Africans did. The South Africans had guns and nukes too, but what they lacked was the moral confidence to use them.

And moral confidence is one thing that White America does not possess today.