Prediction: collapse by 2040

I think the collapse will begin seven years sooner, myself:

New scientific models supported by the British government’s Foreign Office show that if we don’t change course, in less than three decades industrial civilisation will essentially collapse due to catastrophic food shortages, triggered by a combination of climate change, water scarcity, energy crisis, and political instability.

Before you panic, the good news is that the scientists behind the model don’t believe it’s predictive. The model does not account for the reality that people will react to escalating crises by changing behavior and policies.

But even so, it’s a sobering wake-up call, which shows that business-as-usual guarantees the end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it: our current way of life is not sustainable.

“The financial and economic system is exposed to catastrophic short-term risks that the system cannot address in its current form,” Dr. Jones told us.

He described GRO’s use of the Agent-Based Model to capture and simulate the multiple factors that led to the 2011 Arab Spring events.

By successfully modeling the “impact of climate-induced drought on crop failures and the ensuing impact on food prices,” he said, the model can then be recalibrated to “experiment with different scenarios.”

    “We ran the model forward to the year 2040, along a business-as-usual trajectory based on ‘do-nothing’ trends?—?that is, without any feedback loops that would change the underlying trend. The results show that based on plausible climate trends, and a total failure to change course, the global food supply system would face catastrophic losses, and an unprecedented epidemic of food riots. In this scenario, global society essentially collapses as food production falls permanently short of consumption.”

Another steering committee member raised their hand: “So is this going to happen? Is this a forecast?”

“No,” said Jones. “This scenario is based on simply running the model forward. The model is a short-term model. It’s not designed to run this long, as in the real world, trends are always likely to change, whether for better or worse.”

“Okay, but what you’re saying is that if there is no change in current trends, then this is the outcome?” continued the questioner.

Jones nodded with a half-smile. “Yes,” he said quietly.

In other words, simply running the Agent-Based Model forward cannot generate a reliable forecast of the future. For instance, no one anticipated the pace at which solar and wind energy would become cost-competitive with fossil fuels. And the fact that governments and insurers are now beginning to scope such risks, and explore ways of responding, shows how growing awareness of the risks has the potential to trigger change.

Whether that change is big enough to avoid or mitigate the worst is another question. Either way, the model does prove in no uncertain terms that present-day policies are utterly bankrupt.

The two main factors being left out of the equation are mass migration and war, which are essentially the same thing, the latter being a consequence of the former. As Martin van Creveld has repeatedly observed, we are in a post-Trinitarian War environment; neither the Military nor the State is relevant any more. War is no longer State vs State, but Tribe vs Tribe.

These Tribes can be based on ideology, nationality, race, or religion, or any combination therein. They are identity-tribes. The Islamic State is an amalgamation of ideology and religion whereas the Charleston shootings were purely based on race. This is not asymmetric war as it is conventionally understood, but transgeographical, post-Trinitarian identitarian war. Battlefields, lines, and even armies are irrelevant in this new form of warfare, as the identity tribes to which the soldiers are loyal are more self-defined than externally bestowed.

But the fact that the current system of industrial civilization cannot be expected to survive as it is past 2040 is not insignificant. Yes, people will change their behavior in expectation of it, but if history is a reliable guide, most of those changes will increase the instability of the system, not decrease it.


SC church shootings

Charleston Police Chief Greg Mullen says the FBI will be involved in
the investigation of a shooting at a historic black church that killed
nine and is being called a hate crime.

Mullen said the FBI would aid the investigation while speaking at a
news conference that was also attended by FBI Special Agent in Charge
David A. Thomas.House Minority Leader Todd Rutherford says that among those killed at
Emanuel AME Church was the church’s pastor, state Sen. Clementa
Pinckney.

Authorities are still searching for the shooter, who’s described as a white male in his early 20

I wonder if it will still be called a hate crime if the shooter turns out to be a white atheist motivated by a hatred for Christianity or a Muslim bringing jihad to America? Then again, the fact that the shooter spared a woman and told her to “tell the world what happened” indicates that the police have additional information that has not been released to the public.

The reason I’m a little curious about the simple “white racist” theory is that as a general rule, most whites who hate blacks tend to prefer the gainfully employed, church-going blacks to the thugs and welfare queens, so these days, a church would seem to be a somewhat unusual target from that perspective.


Unequally gifted

It’s a real mystery. What a shame that the teachers in Sarasota and Manatee Counties are so racist:

Only one in 50 black students and one in 15 Hispanic students are identified as gifted, compared with about one in seven white students. Overall, Sarasota County has the fourth-lowest rate of black students identified as gifted in the state, behind the less populated Martin, St. Johns and Wakulla counties.

The picture is similar in Manatee County, where about one in 12 white students are singled out as gifted, compared with one of every 42 black students and one in 32 Hispanic students.

Perhaps they should consider taking action to affirm that black students and Hispanic students are every bit as gifted as white students. Surely assigning more black and Hispanic students to the gifted courses will prove that those students are every bit as capable of excelling in those courses as the white students who test into them.

I mean, there can’t possibly be any other explanation than teacher racism for this otherwise inexplicable racial gap.

Wait, I have a better idea! Why not quiz the gifted white students to determine how many of them are transracial. After all, we know that 10 percent of all people are transracial, so correcting for transrace should go a long way towards addressing this dreadful inequality.


Tales of Vibrant America

The wondrous benefits of diversity in action:

On April 22, Baltimore resident Richard Fletcher looked out his window and saw two teenage girls fighting — on top of his car. He went outside to ask them to take the fight elsewhere, and was then jumped by approximately 50 “teens” and beaten within an inch of his life. The attackers crushed his eye sockets and broke his nose, as well as several ribs.

61-year-old Fletcher is now out of the hospital but facing medical bills of “$200,000 to 400,000.”

According to the Daily Mail, the teens kicked Fletcher until he fell to the ground and then continued to beat him once he was down. Police have since arrested 17-year-old Antoine Lawson, a 15-year-old girl, and three others in connection with the beating “and are hoping to bring all of the teens, who are believed to be students at Baltimore Community High School, that participated in the beating to justice.”

Teens. The vibrant youth, the hope of tomorrow’s America. Just remember, no matter what happens, diversity is good. And the Zombie Apocalypse is totally about the undead.

Repent, racist white people! Celebrate diversity! Surely nothing like what befell Richard Fletcher will ever happen to anyone who believes with his heart and confesses with his tongue that there is no such thing as race.

Speaking of a true believer, Glenn Reynolds directs us to the attention of a white male who is is burdened by his Original Sin:

I am a white, male poet—a white, male poet who is aware of his privilege and sensitive to inequalities facing women, POC, and LGBTQ individuals in and out of the writing community—but despite this awareness and sensitivity, I am still white and still male. Sometimes I feel like the time to write from my experience has passed, that the need for poems from a white, male perspective just isn’t there anymore, and that the torch has passed to writers of other communities whose voices have too long been silenced or suppressed. I feel terrible about feeling terrible about this, since I also know that for so long, white men made other people feel terrible about who they were. Sometimes I write from other perspectives via persona poems in order to understand and empathize with the so-called “other”; but I fear that this could be construed as yet another example of my privilege—that I am appropriating another person’s experience, violating that person by telling his or her story. It feels like a Catch-22. Write what you know and risk denying voices whose stories are more urgent; write to learn what you don’t know and risk colonizing someone else’s story. I genuinely am troubled by this. I want to listen but I also want to write—yet at times these impulses feel at odds with one another. How can I reconcile the two?

 My advice? Stop appropriating and othering, move to Baltimore, and start experiencing vibrancy in all its diverse fullness. After all, nothing makes a poet’s name like a young and untimely death.


The post-profit corporation

Starbucks is more interested in cultural revolution than corporate profits:

During the meeting, founder of Corporate Morality Action Center, Tom Stobhar, expressed concerns about the company’s support of homosexual marriage. He explained that the company’s stance affected shareholder earnings after Starbucks backed efforts to legalize same-sex “marriage” last year.  The company’s announcement had resulted in boycotts against the billion-dollar coffee franchise.

Trobhar stated, “In the first full quarter after this boycott was announced, our sales and earnings — shall we say politely — were a bit disappointing.”

 Starbucks CEO, Howard Schultz, promptly rebounded after Trobhar and replied, “Not every decision is an economic decision. Despite the fact that you recite statistics that are narrow in time, we did provide a 38% shareholder return over the last year. I don’t know how many things you invest in, but I would suspect not many things, companies, products, investments have returned 38% over the last 12 months. Having said that, it is not an economic decision to me. The lens in which we are making that decision is through the lens of our people. We employ over 200,000 people in this company, and we want to embrace diversity — of all kinds. If you feel, respectfully, that you can get a higher return than the 38% you got last year, it’s a free country. You can sell your shares in Starbucks and buy shares in another company. Thank you very much.”

I don’t support Starbucks anyway because they burn their coffee, but keep this in mind the next time someone tells you to ignore the evidence of your eyes because corporations are only interested in money. That’s simply not true, as SJW executives are perfectly happy to sacrifice corporate profits for their ideological agenda.

Diversity is a social cancer. It eventually destroys everything it infests. The phrase “Our diversity is our strength” is every bit as self-contradictory and Orwellian as “War is Peace” and “Black is White”.


There is no solution

It has largely ceased to be funny to see the demography ostriches burying their heads in the sand about the total failure of Melting Pot America, even as it rapidly disappears like a timer that’s been turned over.

YANKEE: VD thinks non westerners are too Dunb
to maintain a Republic like the U.S. When they are a majority.”

DAVID: And
non-Westerners continue to steadfastly prove him right. Look, it’s
really just this simple: if they were capable of doing so they would
have done so in their own countries. They have not, ergo, they can’t.

YANKEE: “Fine!
What’s the solution, VD? Furthermore, what’s your solution to America
housing all these blacks that you also believe Are incapable of
maintaining the U.S,?”

There is no solution. There is no shiny secular science fiction “It’s a Small World” societies in the making. There are only the inevitable historical consequences of the demographic destruction of Anglo-Saxon America, which will likely follow one of the usual paths: a) subjection and eventual elimination of minorities, b) subjection and eventual elimination of the majority, c) partition, d) ethnic subsumption. For various reasons, I expect (c) to be the most likely in the USA and (a) to be the most likely in Europe.

Before you stick your head back in the sand, keep in mind that I am a Native American, an American Indian. Some of my relatives live on a small reservation of worthless land their conquerors have permitted them to keep, with a handful of people who know how to speak a language that is now almost entirely extinct. So, don’t tell me that the survival of your people, of your traditions, or of your way of life is a given. Because I can assure you, they most certainly are not.

The future belongs to those who show up for it. The future belongs to those who are determined to survive and are willing to defend their culture, their language, their genetics, and their traditions. Those who aren’t, won’t.


America’s Ethnic Achilles Heel

By Yuji Aida
Volume 6, Number 2 (Winter 1995-1996)

[The editors of the San Francisco Examiner gave this brief preface to the article which we second This article is indicative of an influential minority viewpoint in Japan which some people may find offensive. We publish it to illustrate what is being said there.]

TOKYO – Americans are proud of their melting-pot heritage. But as blacks, Hispanics and Asians gradually come to outnumber whites, that ideal will fade. Like the Soviet Union today the United States will have to deal with contentious ethnic groups demanding greater autonomy and even political independence. That could prove to be industrial America’s undoing.

Many Americans, however, feign ignorance of the problem, partly because of the official ideology. The United States sees itself as a pluralistic, multiethnic society with a single national identity based on the principles of freedom and democracy. In fact, discrimination is rampant, but the illusion of equality is vital to maintain a sense of unity.

Nonetheless, it is only a matter of time before U.S. minority groups espouse self-determination in some form. When that happens, the country may become ungovernable…. Do blacks and Hispanics, for instance, have the skills and knowledge to run an advanced industrial economy? If the answer is yes, America will maintain its vitality through the next century and beyond. But I’m skeptical.

As am I, and I am part-Hispanic. It’s because I know my Hispanic Catholic relatives that I am extremely dubious they are capable of serving as an adequate replacement for the Anglo-Saxon Protestants that they will eventually replace as the USA’s dominant ethnic group. The ironic thing is that even though we are 20 years deeper into the experiment of ethnic America and Mr. Aida’s case looks stronger than ever, his article would probably not be publishable today; it might even be deemed criminal in some places.

But no amount of pretense, thought policing, and determined belief in the magically transformative powers of geographic translocation are going to make any difference in the future. Either the replacement population will be capable of maintaining a First World European-style society or it will not be capable and that society will see its living standards degraded.

And then, of course, there is the entirely separate problem of those non-European groups rejecting the very European, indeed, very Anglo-Saxon concepts such as the Common Law and the Rights of Englishmen. Which happen to include a few minor things such as limited government and so forth. I think a very good case can be made for Continental immigrants never quite grasping these concepts in their entirety. It does not appear subsequent waves of immigrants are doing any better in this regard.

Now, I realize that millions of people very genuinely believe that the ethnic demographics of a society are totally irrelevant. I understand that millions of people genuinely believe that IQ does not measure intelligence and that every human sub-species is equally capable of all things. Of course, I also recognize that most people are idiots.

So here is the question I have for those people who firmly believe that the ethnic composition of a society is not a controlling factor in what that society will be like. Have you ever stopped to consider what is going to happen if you are wrong? Have you ever wondered how future generations are going to regard you and the fate you inflicted upon them with your fervent dedication to diversity, equality, and inclusivity? Aren’t you not only betting the house, but Western civilization, on an untested and unproven idea?

What if you are wrong?


Giving up on civilized standards

Even if you are a blank slatist who subscribes to a purely cultural theory of African dyscivicism, how is a retreat from imposing civilized standards on disruptive young vibrants going to improve either their behavior or their odds in life?

Board members of California’s Oakland Unified School District unanimously voted on Wednesday to cease suspending students for what they call “willful defiance.” Those behaviors can include swearing/yelling at teachers, refusing direct orders, texting, and storming out of class, to name a few.

The reason? Concern that too many black students are being suspended for willful defiance.

One sophomore student, Dan’enicole Williams, told the San Francisco Gate, “They never take time out, if someone is sleeping in class, to ask what’s wrong. They may be acting that way because they didn’t eat the night before.”

“We’re getting pushed out of schools,” she added. “They don’t care about us.”

Along with suspensions, the new policy will also include bans on expulsions and transfers of students to other schools for multiple infractions.

This is not a society that is going to survive three more generations intact. I mean, anyone can be wrong about what the future will bring, but I simply don’t see any credible scenario where this sort of absolute lunacy doesn’t have considerable knock-on effects.

These optimistically misnamed “students” don’t want to be there and there is observably no purpose in them being there since they’re not even going to be held to minimal standards of behavior, so what is the point of denying their free will while simultaneously degrading the educational experience of all the other children?

Ah yes, preserving the narrative. The narrative must be preserved at absolutely all costs, or else Hitler will holocaust the Jews again. If I was a poor black single mother hoping that my child would somehow improve his lot by obtaining an education, I’d be up in arms about this nonsense.


A legacy of excuses

What is the point of permitting blacks to govern themselves if whites are going to be held responsible for them anyhow?

IN the wake of the Michael Brown shooting and subsequent unrest in Ferguson, Mo., commentators noted the absence of black representatives among Ferguson’s elected officials and its police leadership. A Department of Justice report highlighted how Ferguson’s mostly white City Council and its courts spurred on explicitly racist policing, in part to harvest fines from black residents.

Then came Baltimore. The death of Freddie Gray, like those of Eric Garner, John Crawford III, Rekia Boyd and so many other unarmed African-Americans, at first seemed to fit the all-too-familiar template — white cops, black suspect, black corpse.

But unlike New York, Chicago and other cities with white leaders, Baltimore has a black mayor, a black police commissioner and a majority-black City Council. Yet the city still has one of the most stained records of police brutality in recent years…. The problem is not black culture. It is policy and politics, the very things that bind together the history of Ferguson and Baltimore and, for that matter, the rest of America.

Specifically, the problem rests on the continued profitability of racism. Freddie Gray’s exposure to lead paint as a child, his suspected participation in the drug trade, and the relative confinement of black unrest to black communities during this week’s riot are all features of a city and a country that still segregate people along racial lines, to the financial enrichment of landlords, corner store merchants and other vendors selling second-rate goods. The problem originates in a political culture that has long bound black bodies to questions of property. Yes, I’m referring to slavery.

So exposure to lead paint is why Baltimore’s residents burned down their own neighborhoods? That’s dancing dangerously near reality for the New York Times. But there is a kernel of truth to the claim that black culture is not to blame, in that black culture is a consequence, not a cause. Baltimore is merely the most recent result of decades of US policy flying in the face of reality. It should not come as a surprise to anyone that a population that is disproportionately aggressive and possesses shorter time preferences on average will tend to behave in a manner that is different than, for example, a predominantly Chinese population.

The more stubbornly Western public policy refuses to accept the historically observed and scientifically established fact that not all human population sub-groups are entirely equal in every way, the more those policies are guaranteed to catastrophically fail. And the longer people insist on pretending that red herrings like “the legacy of racism” or “the daily violence of poverty” are to blame, the longer those problems will persist and the more serious they will become.

The game of let’s pretend doesn’t help anyone, least of all those whose tender feelings it is designed to spare. Look at the sheer absurdity of the columnist’s recommendations:

By avoiding the language of individual failings and degenerate culture, political leaders, black and otherwise, can help us all see the daily violence of poverty. More, they can better use the power they have to do something about it. By calling a nationwide “state of emergency” on the problem of residential segregation, by devising a fairer tax structure, by investing in public space, community policing, tenants’ rights and a government jobs program, our leaders can find a way forward.

More racial Kabuki and government spending is not going to solve anything. After 50 years of “civil rights” and “war on poverty”, that should be abundantly clear by now.


Who needs that pesky “civilization” anyhow?

Apparently we need to readjust our vocabularies again. It’s no longer white/yellow/red/brown separatism, it’s just militant-shaming.

As a nation, we fail to comprehend Black political strategy in much the same way we fail to recognize the value of Black life.

We
see ghettos and crime and absent parents where we should see
communities actively struggling against mental health crises and
premeditated economic exploitation. And when we see police cars being
smashed and corporate property being destroyed, we should see reasonable
responses to generations of extreme state violence, and logical
decisions about what kind of actions yield the desired political
results.

I’m overwhelmed by the pervasive slandering of protesters in Baltimore this weekend for not remaining peaceful….We need to clarify what we mean by terms like “violence” and
“peaceful.” Because, to be clear, violence is beating, harassing,
tazing, assaulting and shooting Black, trans, immigrant, women, and
queer people, and that is the reality many of us are dealing with daily.
Telling someone to be peaceful and shaming their militance not only
lacks a nuanced and historical political understanding, it is literally a
deadly and irresponsible demand.

The political goals of rioters in Baltimore are not unclear—just as they were not unclear when poor, Black people rioted in Ferguson last fall. When the free market, real estate, the elected government, the legal system have all shown you they are not going to protect you—in fact, that they are the sources of the greatest violence you face—then political action becomes about stopping the machine that is trying to kill you, even if only for a moment, getting the boot off your neck, even if it only allows you a second of air. This is exactly what blocking off streets, disrupting white consumerism, and destroying state property are designed to do.

Black people know this, and have
employed these tactics for a very, very long time. Calling them
uncivilized, and encouraging them to mind the Constitution is racist,
and as an argument fails to ground itself not only in the violent
political reality in which Black people find themselves, but also in our
centuries-long tradition of resistance, one that has taught effective
strategies for militance and direct action to virtually every other
current movement for justice.

There is your choice, white America. Racism, aka “civilization and the Constitution” or living amongst an entitled and vibrant population that feels entirely justified in burning down the city around itself. I think it’s long past time for forced integration. But not for schoolchildren, for those who claim to oppose separatism. Let’s bus every self-professed “anti-racist” to Baltimore and make them live and work there.

They seem to think all of White America would rather die than be called racist. And they’re probably not wrong about the SJWs. But what the advocates of multiculturalism forgot is that Mexicans and Asians despise blacks in a way that few whites ever have, and they feel absolutely no guilt for the so-called “legacy of slavery”.

And if you’re going to try to make American Indians feel guilty about racial separatism, well, good luck with that.